1. Run the Floor: If recruiting means anything, the ACC is well on its way to regaining its place as top basketball conference in the land. Not counting the Big East defections (all of which will improve the quality of the conference), 17 of the 75 committed players in the ESPNU Top 100 will play in the ACC during their collegiate careers. Unlike the last few years, it’s not just Tobacco Road hauling in the five-star prospects: it’s Florida State capitalizing on the publicity following its ACC championship; it’s Georgia Tech and Maryland starting to tap into their bountiful recruiting homes; and it’s NC State regaining its place among the relevant.
2. Raleigh News & Observer: Luke DeCock and Caulton Tudor answered five burning questions about the ACC in this piece (albeit with a bit of a Tobacco Road tilt). The most interesting of the questions is whether ACC Tournament Friday can be saved. DeCock makes a very interesting suggestion: Leave lower bowl ticketing the same (tickets split between teams), but make the upper level general admission. Especially while the ACC Tournament is in Greensboro (and Duke, North Carolina and NC State are all relevant), the problem isn’t a shortage of fans. It’s a shortage of fans able of getting a handle on some tickets.
3. Wilmington Star News: Speaking of NC State, CJ Leslie is ready to step up and lead this Wolfpack team. As a freshman, he had all of the ability in the world but often looked like a totally disinterested guy playing pick-up ball, choosing to troll the perimeter rather than get to work in the post. Down the stretch last season, Leslie found his groove. He used his athleticism to work over bigger defenders away from the basket and his height to frustrate smaller defenders. Based on his play at the end of last year, the biggest question about him coming out of high school — his maturity — is starting to look optimistic.
4. Southern Maryland Online: After short stints playing overseas, former Maryland point guard Eric Hayes is coming back to College Park to try his hand at coaching. Hayes joined Mark Turgeon’s staff as a graduate assistant this season. His father was a very successful high school coach at Potomac High School for over two decades, which means Hayes spent his whole life looking at basketball through the eyes of a coach.
5. The Heights: Austin Tedesco asked the question “Can [Boston College] be a new Duke?” And his very important point gets lost in the extreme nature of his question. His point boils down to the fact that a coach’s first real recruiting class’ success is very important in program building — meaning Ryan Anderson, Patrick Heckmann and Dennis Clifford will need to do well if Boston College is to improve significantly under Steve Donahue. However, the Duke comparison is a little more far-fetched for three simple reasons: (1) Duke had far more recent basketball success when Mike Krzyzewski took over over three decades ago; (2) Duke sits in a college basketball hotbed, both of local talent and local fandom; and (3) Coach K is a once-in-a-generation coach. Donahue may turn out to be an exceptional program builder, but to immediately compare him with the most successful coach in the modern era sets the bar unreasonably high.

1. Wilmington Star News: Brett Friedlander is putting out some good stuff in previewing the ACC season. Today his Maryland preview came online. Sophomore Nick Faust describes why people should expect improvement from the Terrapins despite losing their only offensive option in Terrell Stoglin: “When I first got in last year, I definitely felt as though the team was separated — not separated, but we definitely weren’t as close as we are now. All of us bond together, even the new guys that came in. We’re just more together; we’re one.” If Faust makes the improvement most are forecasting, this is a team that could feasibly make a run for the NCAA Tournament (regardless of computer rankings). They’ve definitely got an uphill road ahead, but it’s a legitimate possibility.
2. Rome News-Tribune: Georgia Tech needs its frontcourt to step up this season if the Yellow Jackets are going to make the leap to middle of the pack in the conference. Juniors Daniel Miller and Kammeon Holsey both improved significantly as last year went along — Miller scored in double figures in eight of his last 10 games. But Georgia Tech desperately needs more offense this season, and that frontcourt duo should be able to help senior Mfon Udofia carry the scoring load.
3. Greensboro News-Record: The NC State hype is real. At least fans are buying into it, quite literally. With their highest preseason ranking since ranking first in 1974, the Wolfpack have already sold 1,900 more season tickets than last year, which is the highest season ticket sales have been in five years. If Mark Gottfried and his team can deliver on the hype, expect ticket sales to keep climbing. Fans should get their money’s worth, even if the Wolfpack don’t finish as the sixth ranked team in the country. This team will be fun to watch, especially on the offensive end.
4. Tallahassee Democrat: People often point to freshmen when talking about why young teams struggle, but it’s the veterans who also have to accept new roles. Last season, Ian Miller and Okaro White were two incredibly important reserves for Florida State: Miller’s job was to come in and put up quick points; White’s job was to give Bernard James a breather. This year both will have to be leaders by helping integrate the new freshmen to Leonard Hamilton’s system. If they succeed, the freshmen will find their roles much faster and this team could win the conference. If they don’t, the team could find itself sneaking into the NCAA tournament.
5. ACCSports.com: David Glenn cleaned up at the ACC’s “Operation Basketball” this season, recording interviews with most of the conference’s top players. The best news? Most of them are compiled in the same place, so you can listen to Michael Snaer talk Florida State, Julian Gamble talk Miami, or Jarell Eddie talk Virginia Tech. Probably good to get a little listening in, as ACC basketball season starts just over a week from today.

VIDEO UPDATE: Uncle Drew (aka Kyrie Irving) is back.

Throughout the preseason, the ACC microsite will release a preview for each of the 12 teams. Today’s victim: the Florida State Seminoles.

Leonard Hamilton and his team knocked off Duke and North Carolina to become the first ACC champion from somewhere off of Tobacco Road since Maryland in 2004. Hamilton’s team used experience, physical defense and drive to push through the ACC Tournament before falling in a brutal game to Cincinnati in the NCAA Tournament Round of 32. Still, the Seminoles’ triumph earned Hamilton the credibility where it’s time to start accepting his teams as conference contenders — especially when star guard Michael Snaer is at the helm.

Luke Loucks is gone, but Michael Snaer is ready to build on a dream season (Reuters)

This isn’t to say picking Florida State to finish near the top of the league again is a no-brainer; on the contrary, the Seminoles lost six players to graduation, including three starters. Among those leaving were Luke Loucks, the veteran point guard who played the cool foil to Snaer much of last year, and Bernard James, whose shot-blocking and tough defense anchored one of the best defenses in the country.

Newcomers

Five freshmen and a junior college transfer join the Seminoles this season, headlined by Aaron Thomas and Montay Brandon. Brandon, a consensus four-star 6’7″ wing out of Greensboro, North Carolina, looks to be a paradigmatic Hamilton player: He’s very long, athletic and is ready to focus on defense. Thomas was also a consensus four-star recruit and is known as a slasher; he’ll be backing up Florida State’s very talented backcourt this season. His playing time will probably directly correlate to how his defense stacks up with Ian Miller. Devon Bookert and junior college transfer Robert Gilchrist also join the Seminoles, though look for their impact to be somewhat down the road. Bookert is an offensive-minded point guard out of Alaska, and Gilchrist is a skinny forward with terrific length and athleticism. Finally, there are the seven footers Michael Ojo and Boris Bojanovsky. Ojo and Bojanovsky are both very raw, but the Seminoles will need an eraser at the center of Hamilton’s defense, and one or both may play significant time if they can fit that role.

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In the past couple days, the wizards of college basketball statistics have waved their wands and conjured up some preseason predictions for ACC teams. Of course, describing the process as magic is a great dis-service to these fine folks. Instead of engaging in arcane processes only explained in a cryptic language, these bold souls have happily popped open the hood on their future predicting machines and offered to show us what exactly they did. Ken Pomeroy gladly explains his methodology on his website, while Dan Hanner lays out the logic and mechanisms behind his predictive system at Basketball Prospectus. So, with a theoretical understanding of what these two are doing, we can now look at the predictive rankings from Pomeroy and Hanner and see how these predictions differ from the results predicted by the ACC’s coaches and the ACC media.

Messrs. Pomeroy and Hanner in the Lab…

The calculated predictions do differ from the polls in some significant ways, notably both Hanner and Pomeroy’s system favor Duke to be the best team in the conference, while the coaches and media favor NC State. The reasons for this are fairly obvious and have everything to do with how excited people get over highly-touted freshmen.  While both of the calculated systems take into consideration new players, both systems take a fairly reasoned and cautious view of their impact. So while the conference’s coaches and reporters might be swept up in Rodney Purvis Mania,  the computers are more measured in their optimism. With that taken into consideration, it’s easy to see how such systems would favor Duke, a team that was very good last year and lost relatively little compared to other league contenders like North Carolina and Florida State.

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Andy Glockner revealed his preseason conference rankings — quite impressively giving nearly as many words to the SWAC as the Big Ten — with the ACC coming in at fifth behind all of the power conferences except the Pac-12 (#8). Glockner’s top two make sense. The Big Ten and Big East both have fewer questions than the other conferences. Also, it’s a safe bet based on the past couple of seasons that those two will be on top of the college basketball totem poll.

Does the National Media Still Doubt Leonard Hamilton?

However, ranking the Big 12, SEC and ACC raises a few more questions. The first issue is weighting the depth of the conference against the quality of the best teams. Is it better to have a strong top or a decent bottom? Both certainly enhance a conference’s standing, but it says here that a strong top is more important. After Kansas, the Big 12 is a mess. It’s true most of those teams will be good, but does one great team (that’s headlined by Jeff Withey, Elijah Johnson, and some talented freshmen) make for the third best conference in the country? The SEC is a different story. Kentucky, Missouri and Florida have the potential to be great. Tennessee and Alabama should be good. But are those five better than the ACC’s top five? Also can any fan expect consistent results from Frank Haith?

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Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

College basketball, like most sports, is cyclical. Aside from the truly elite crop of blue-blooded programs, the Kentuckys and Dukes and Kansases and UNCs of the world, most teams are just as prone to have truly transcendent seasons as they are to crash and burn. Ok, that’s overstating the truth. I define these parameters in dramatic terms not as an accurate depiction of most teams’ year-to-year trajectories – it’s rare for a program to follow up a high-win season with an epic flameout – but to emphasize the fickle nature of the sport. We media types tend to overreact to single-season sample sizes, but in truth, most programs, whether through coaching changes, administrative shake-ups or otherwise, chart a steady long-term course. Teams suffer long downturns, sure, and some last longer than others. But most find ways (coaching changes, administrative shakeups, etc.) to right the ship, if only for one memorable season, to compete at the top of their respective leagues.

With a healthy Woodall, and a potential first-round talent in Adams, Pitt will regain its usual status among the Big East elite (Photo credit: US Presswire)

Underlying these trends is the inherent potential for random variance, for teams to break out of their expected competitive range and “make the leap.” It happens each and every season. Teams bounce back from particularly disappointing seasons to bump their win totals and challenge the same teams who oversaw their downfall one year prior. Predicting which teams are ready to fulfill that narrative is never easy. There are a variety of factors involved that make pinpointing breakout teams a fundamentally risky exercise. Sometimes conventional wisdom – decades-long concepts like returning starters directly correlating to success, or promising bench players seamlessly carrying their production rates into larger minute distributions and more shot attempts; you know, the ideas that never seem to play out the way you’d expect – does not apply to specific teams. Each situation is different, no matter what conventional logic you use to define a team’s potential.

To account for natural error, and the time-tested axiom that logical thinking does not prescribe college basketball teams to specific win ranges and milestones, I’ve selected six teams ready to make the aforementioned “leap,” one from each of the six power conferences.  As a reminder, this exercise, like most any preseason preview article you’ll see on the web, is rooted mostly in opinion. No one’s actually seen these guys play real games together, at least not within the construct of this year’s team model. The knowledge base from which we make these predictions is limited – though larger and more permitting to some than others. We have observations from previous seasons, recruiting rankings, highlights and random hearsay from coaches and fans and whatnot, and that’s about it. Mistakes are likely, if not guaranteed. That said, each conference features a particularly salient breakout candidate, at least in my eyes. Let’s begin. 

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1. USA Today:  Miami Heat forward and former Duke star Shane Battier, recently offered some very high praise for his teammate, LeBron James. Battier said, “LeBron could have played at Duke, and I don’t say that about a lot of guys.” What Battier means is that few NBA players, particularly those of James’ caliber, would have been mentally tough enough to play for Coach K. Even though LeBron would likely have played at Ohio State if the one-and-done rule had been in effect when he was entering the professional ranks, it certainly can’t hurt Duke that one of its all-time greats is considering the game’s best player an honorary Blue Devil.  Additionally, James and Krzyzewski have enjoyed a great relationship during Coach K’s seven-year stint as the head coach of Team USA.
2. Washington Post:  Despite Virginia Tech only having eight scholarship players this season, first year-head coach James Johnson is still intent on running an up-tempo offense. This would be a massive change from the Seth Greenberg era, when Virginia Tech regularly played one of the slowest paces in the ACC (aside from Tony Bennett’s glacial Virginia squads). During the team’s opening scrimmage, a larger percentage of the offense came in transition than from half-court sets. While it may be difficult for Virginia Tech to have success with this style in this season, Johnson wants to make this a long-term staple of his system. With some success this year, this could become a great recruiting tool up in Blacksburg.
3. ESPN:  From the world of the bizarre: While on their overseas trip to Paris this offseason, most of Virginia’s basketball team managed to get trapped in a hotel elevator. In something that seems ripped from a bad movie or a claustrophobic person’s worst nightmare, head coach Tony Bennett narrates a video that describes this ordeal. It appears as though the players didn’t realize that the elevator capacity needed to be taken seriously, while also failing to adjust for the fact that basketball players are generally quite a bit larger than the average human. At the very least, it should have been a bonding experience for the team.
4. Raleigh N&O:  The saga involving Tyler Hansbrough’s mother, Tami, continues. The university’s audit of Hansbrough (the former gifts officer) and her boyfriend and former boss, Matt Kupec, who was the head of UNC’s fundraising department before his resignation, has been completed. North Carolina determined that Kupec misspent $17,000 on a total of 13 trips under investigation, with much of it used on trips that he took with Hansbrough. Some of these trips were to go see the Tyler’s younger brother, Ben, play at Notre Dame, and several involved the use of UNC Medical Air planes. Kupec could potentially face criminal charges for his misconduct, and this scandal was just one of many likely responsible for UNC chancellor Holden Thorp’s recent resignation.
5. Sports Illustrated: SI ran an interesting piece about the most influential college basketball teams of all-time.  Following the usual suspects (Texas Western in 1966, and the 1979 Michigan State and Indiana State teams led by Magic Johnson and Larry Bird, respectively), only one ACC team made the cut:  the 1974 NC State national champions. This team, led by David Thompson — the player who introduced otherworldly athleticism to college basketball — Tommy Burleson, and Monte Towe, broke UCLA’s streak at the time of seven straight national titles. NC State hopes to rekindle some of its past glory with this year’s squad.  Even if they can make a run, they will obviously not hold a candle to the unbelievable team that brought the Wolfpack its first national title.

1. CBSSports.com:  N.C. State has drawn a lot of attention due to its preseason top 10 ranking and position as a strong conference favorite. Jeff Goodman took in a Wolfpack practice on Saturday and is very high on Mark Gottfried’s squad. A few quick takeaways from Goodman’s 10 points from Raleigh: Lorenzo Brown is N.C. State’s best player… Goodman thinks he is by far the best point guard in the ACC and possibly the best in the country (and that N.C. State ultimately benefited from Ryan Harrow’s transfer to Kentucky), Rodney Purvis is much further along than should be expected considering that he was only recently declared eligible, and this team has more talent than Raleigh has seen in a long time. With the abundance of talent suiting up in Raleigh, the question remains: Can this team shoulder the burden of such lofty expectations?  That may be the only thing that can stop the Wolfpack.
2. BC Interruption:  Boston College has its first commitment for 2013-14: 6’5” guard Garland Owens, who chose the Eagles over Seton Hall and UTEP. Owens has the potential to be the most athletic player of the Steve Donahue era in Chestnut Hill. Owens selected Boston College in order to improve his shooting skills, calling Donahue “a great shooting teacher” and also citing the similarities of his high school’s offense to BC’s as another reason why he picked the school. Regardless of whether Owens becomes an elite shooter, he will surely provide a different wrinkle for Boston College going forward.
3. Keeping it Heel: Matt Hamm has an interesting take on two important cogs in the North Carolina lineup this year, Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland, who both missed considerable time last season with torn ACLs (McDonald the whole season, while Strickland only appeared in 16 games). With freshman Marcus Paige seemingly given the reins at point guard to start the season, both players will likely be competing for minutes (Strickland more so at PG and McDonald more so at SG) and potentially, in McDonald’s case, a starting spot. More importantly, it is unlikely that either player will be at 100% until at least a month into the season. With so many unknown variables, whether these two players can return to the levels they showed before their injuries will play a huge role in how far the Tar Heels can go this season.
4. Baltimore Sun: Maryland coach Mark Turgeon has only determined one of his starters for this season: Ukrainian center Alex Len.  The 7’1” center and Xavier transfer Dez Wells have been by far the most impressive players in Maryland’s opening practices and scrimmages. Wells’ eligibility for the season is still up in the air, as he has requested a waiver that would allow him to play; the outcome of this request should be determined in the next couple of weeks. The fact that Len has been guaranteed a starting spot must mean that the sophomore, who was ineligible until midway through last season, has improved greatly during the offseason. Len is reportedly showing off an improved mid-range jumper and may even attempt some three-pointers this season. While Maryland does have many question marks heading into Turgeon’s second season, at least one piece of the puzzle appears to have been solved.
5. Duke Basketball Report: Al Featherston touches on many different topics in this piece, which primarily deals with a potential resurgence of the ACC and analyzes the preseason polls. One interesting finding in this article: Florida State and Boston College have been the teams must underrated by the ACC writers in the preseason polls in the past five years, whereas Georgia Tech and North Carolina have been the most overrated during this same span, with Florida State unsurprisingly following this trend and getting more respect this preseason from the national pundits rather than the ACC media. Featherston also delineates a top five and bottom seven of the ACC with the Triangle schools, Florida State, and Miami make up the top five.

Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn.

College basketball is nearly here. You can feel it now, the palpable hype (both good and bad) growing around the various players, coaches and teams who over the next five months will provide a steady dose of tantalizing hoops action. Each season brings a host of unpredictable variables and elements, which makes divining conference and national championship contenders in October a notoriously futile endeavor. Preseason polls are nonetheless afforded at least some measure of credibility and national attention. And I have to admit, a wave of excitement came over me when I pored over the preseason USA Today Coaches Poll. These rankings hold little to no bearing for the events of the upcoming season, and they’re almost entirely based on perception. The upshot is that we’re talking about college basketball – and not NCAA violations or transfer culture or conference realignment – real, actual basketball topics. Everyone will have their own say on these rankings, and many will protest their favorite team’s slot in the Top 25, but remember this: Competition and team rankings have a way of sorting themselves out over the course of a season. So if your team deserves a spot in these rankings, it will prove as much. Despite the ultimate meaninglessness of this list, I highlighted some interesting items worth discussing. To frame my thoughts, I’ve come up with three “underrateds,” three “reaches,” and one puzzling snub. Again, this is all speculative, so put these rankings (and my resulting analysis) in perspective without fretting over your team’s placement all too much.

The Rebels will need time to integrate a stable of young players, but they should be a dangerous group in March (Photo credit: Ethan Miller/Getty Images).

Underrated

UNLV (#19)

There’s no questioning UNLV’s talent. On that front, the Rebels are undeniably loaded. Pittsburgh transfer Khem Birch joins NBA prospect Mike Moser and highly-touted freshman Anthony Bennett to form arguably the nation’s best frontcourt. Experienced guards Justin Hawkins and Anthony Marshall provide leadership and control on both ends of the floor. Incoming combo guard Katin Reinhardt, the No. 8 ranked player at his position according to ESPN, could play a key bench role right away. Within the confines of Dave Rice’s throwback high-speed UNLV system, a conference championship and top-four NCAA Tournament seed are realistic goals. That said, there are a bunch of moving parts to account for, and it’s never smart to assume freshmen – no matter how highly touted – can make seamless transitions into the college game. These are legitimate concerns. But when you have this much talent, and you combine it with Rice’s up-tempo system, the end result is predictably excellent. UNLV’s ceiling is limitless; the question is whether it can congeal so much young talent into a cohesive unit. If it can, the Rebels will surpass this ranking by season’s end.

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1. Raleigh News & Observer: The media agree with the coaches. North Carolina State will enter the season tabbed as the number one team in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The preseason poll, of course, came out in conjunction with the ACC’s Operation Basketball, a media event where coaches and players meet with the press and face some very early judgment from the fourth estate. The last time the media pegged the Wolfpack to win the conference, it was the 1974-75 season.  Also like the coaches, the media picked C.J. Leslie as the likely player of the year and Rodney Purvis as the preseason rookie of the year. Though I’m sure Mark Gottfried and the Wolfpack know they will have to earn these accolades, it still must feel good for Wolfpack fans to ease up on the “no one believes in us” mentality that has defined the team in the past few seasons.
2. Sporting News: It’s not often that people can talk about how you have slimmed down and you still weigh 290 pounds, but that’s exactly what Miami’s Reggie Johnson has accomplished. The bulky center was over 300 pounds in the past few seasons, but he’s ready to face this campaign with more muscle and less pudge. Johnson’s sheer size has made him a force in the paint, but the addition of some muscle, strength, and agility means that one of the most physically imposing players in the league may have become quite a bit more dangerous. Johnson’s increased offensive prowess comes not just from physical improvements, but from a refinement in his skill set. Coach Jim Larranaga praises the ease with which Johnson finishes with either hand and notes, terrifyingly enough, that Johnson’s prowess at shooting the three may mean that the biggest center in the ACC might soon be hoisting bombs from deep.
3. Daily Press: Of course, Operation Basketball is not just about the individual coaches, players, and teams, but about ACC basketball as a whole and the plans the member schools and the conference commissioner have for the future. As it often is, one of the hot topics was the potential location of the ACC Tournament. Though John Swofford was quick to point out that future tournament sites would probably be much in line with what the league has done in the past, there were some intriguing possibilities to the north and the south of the traditional conference stronghold of Greensboro. To the south, observers have noted that Orlando and Miami are likely candidates for a future tournament. To the north, the leading candidates seem to be Pittsburgh, Washington, DC,  and, somewhat surprisingly, Brooklyn. The newly completed Barclays Center is apparently, while not an official candidate for this round of site selection, a possibility that the league seems excited about.
4. Washington Post: Though Operation Basketball is traditionally a day of easy optimism for most of the coaches in the conference, there is always the harsh reality that not every team can have a winning record. Sadly, Virginia Tech and new head coach James Johnson are more likely to end up on the bottom of the conference than near the top. Though the Hokies return a legitimate conference star in Erick Green, the team will only have eight scholarship players for the season, which is unfortunate considering that James Johnson favors a fast-paced offense and a pressure-focused defense. While both tactics are certainly workable for the Hokies, these tactics tend to be exhausting for players and are more typically executed by teams that count depth as a strength. It will be interesting to see how the somewhat mismatched available personnel and Johnson’s coaching style mesh in this coming season.
5. Wilmington Star News: Typically, this is the time of the year when lots of stories about the increased leadership of this or that player is having a positive influence on the freshmen and underclassmen who are still learning the ropes. These stories tend to be really similar and, unfortunately, kind of run together. The clear winner of this year’s “veterans help rookies” genre is the tale of Wake Forest senior C.J. Harris and his 2002 Jeep. Apparently, only three players on this year’s WFU team have cars, meaning that the younger Demon Deacons are constantly bumming rides and borrowing teammates’ cars.  This is a silly detail, but one that’s much more interesting and humanizing than stories about seniors teaching freshmen the value of practice.