After five games on Saturday and one game on Sunday, conference play has officially begun for all the schools in the ACC. So did we learn anything over the weekend? Absolutely. Here are three takeaways from the action.

1. North Carolina State is Vulnerable. Sure the Wolfpack scores with ease, but Boston College, a terrible offensive rebounding team, easily snagged some critical boards in the closing minutes of a surprisingly tight game. Just as problematic, North Carolina State has still not figured out how to defend without fouling: Boston College attempted a whopping 37 free throws in its five point (78-73) loss. The Wolfpack got the win in the end, but this game was hardly the confidence-boosting rout that the folks in Raleigh were hoping for. Against stiffer competition, NC State might find itself in trouble.
   

   Erick Green Has Been Forced To Do It All This Year

2. Erick Green Can Really Score, Even If Nobody Else on Virginia Tech Can. In all fairness, this wasn’t exactly a surprising lesson, but the lopsidedness of the game against Maryland — a 94-71 defeat — really highlighted the problem that the Hokies have. Green scored 28 points on an efficient 18 shots and still his team lost by 23. If you can’t get the score within 20 points on the tail of a star performance like that, your team is in serious trouble. Cadarian Raines showed a real knack on the boards and maybe it was just an off night for his teammates Robert Brown and Jarell Eddie, but until Virginia Tech demonstrates otherwise, this team only has one player, albeit a really great one.
3. North Carolina Isn’t Ready, But Virginia Is. There has been a growing suspicion that North Carolina was not a very good team, but a win against UNLV without Reggie Bullock in the lineup earned the Tar Heels the benefit of the doubt. In its loss against Virginia, however, Roy Williams’ team showcased how vulnerable and inept it can be, while Virginia made its opening argument for its case as an ACC contender. Outside of Bullock, who has been freakishly efficient and effective this season, North Carolina can’t score effectively against good defenses. And let’s be clear, Virginia has a very good defense. The Cavaliers did a remarkable job in exhibiting how a combination of tough defense, a slow tempo, and deadly perimeter shooting can pick apart a team that isn’t prepared for it.

Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

The Weekend’s Lede. This weekend brought a comforting turn in the hoops calendar. It was the first weekend spent in the throes of conference play. On Saturday, starting at 11am ET with Pittsburgh at Rutgers and on through Sunday night, high-quality games could be found on various networks. There were upsets, blowouts, and predictable results – all of which we’ve seen at different stages this season. But there’s a different vibe when it comes to conference play, to me at least, and it was refreshing to take it all in. Gone are the days of high majors beating down cupcakes. Most conference games are real, competitive, no-sleep-walking-allowed basketball games. And they’re here to stay, at least until April. This put me in an especially rosy mood, which is a good sign for what lies ahead in 2013, and an even better sign for college basketball in general. League competition is already shaking perceptions and standings in noticeable ways, and we haven’t even yet broken free of the college football fever. Just wait until February; I can hardly hide my excitement. So let’s recap the first conference weekend. It was a good one.

Your Watercooler Moment. CJ McCollum Breaks His Foot.

After bursting on the scene during last season’s upset over No. 2 Duke, McCollum could very well have seen his last sample of NCAA Tournament basketball (Photo credit: AP).

Twice this season C.J. McCollum has left NBA Scouts looking for refunds on game tickets. The first time was a minor medical ailment. McCollum sprained his ankle and couldn’t suit up for a Dec. 20 game against North Texas. Saturday’s injury was far more severe. What’s truly saddening about McCollum’s broken foot isn’t the lengthy eight-to-ten-week recovery or the implications for his NBA draft status. It’s the fact that McCollum made the move most college basketball fans wish future first-round picks would make more often. McCollum eschewed guaranteed millions to play out his eligibility. In April, he penned a reflective piece explaining his decision. The SportingNews’ Mike DeCourcy dug up one of McCollum’s pivotal justifications: “By returning for my senior year, I give myself a chance to complete my degree at a prestigious university, while putting myself in a position to be successful no matter what happens in my future.” McCollum will still accomplish those goals, but the basketball component of his senior year won’t go as planned. Passing up the professional game for another year in college is always risky business. Many players wind up hurting their “draft stock” and regretting their decisions. McCollum should be back before the end of the season, and I have little doubt he can redeem whatever shine he may lose during his recovery, whether that be in the midst of a late-season Tournament surge or in draft workouts. McCollum is a preternaturally gifted scorer. He belongs in the NBA. This will do little, if anything, to hurt his draft prospects – provided he returns to his pre-injury form. It’s a tough setback, but nothing McCollum, a determined, clear-headed and driven individual, cannot overcome.

Also Worth Chatting About. Nothing Will Come Easy In The Big Ten.

The Illini didn’t need hot three-point shooting to dominate Ohio State in Champaign (Photo Credit: Getty Images).

The formula to Illinois’ early success was flawed. It depended heavily on the three-point shot, which is an inherently risky way to win basketball games, but even more perilous when you don’t have a reliable source of interior scoring. Which Illinois didn’t…..until Saturday. The Illini’s win over Ohio State wasn’t surprising. It was the way Illinois bombarded the Buckeyes not with long-range shots, but with effective low post play. Sophomore forward Nnanna Egwu was slowly, surely coming around of late, but he came up small in this week’s loss at Purdue, and one was starting to get the sense he was still a year or two away from contributing in meaningful ways. On Saturday, he showed up, and boy, does Ohio State wish he hadn’t. Egwu finished with 16 points and eight rebounds to bail out Illinois’ again poor three-point shooting (8-for-27). Illinois showed it doesn’t need the long-ball to knock off good teams – at least not when Egwu’s holding fort in the paint. The same problems remain with Ohio State: Can anyone help DeShaun Thomas shoulder the scoring load? Is Aaron Craft that guy? Will Shannon Scott, Laquinton Ross and Sam Thompson pick up steam as the season rolls along? This will give John Groce’s team boatloads of confidence for an upcoming home date with Minnesota, but the way the Gophers have looked thus far, it may need to recapture its hot three-point shooting stroke to spring the upset.

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Sports Illustrated‘s Seth Davis is a smart guy and gimmick columns are a time-honored tradition in sports writing, yet it is hard not come away a little befuddled at the strange results of a strained stock market metaphor in his latest Hoop Thoughts column. Since he makes some interesting short term predictions on eight different ACC teams, it is worth a closer look. Before we dive too deep in to picking nits, let us note an important caveat:

Remember, now, these ratings assess only where a stock is headed relative to where it is today. That yields a twisted logic. The better a team is, the higher it’s ranked, the more likely it is to yield a Sell. The opposite is true for teams that are unranked and unremarked upon.

How Much Higher Can Duke’s Stock Go? (Duke Hoop Blog)

This makes sense at face value: When there is little room for a team to get better, it’s hard to say that their stock is going to go up. At least, I thought that was the correct understanding of this caveat until I saw that Davis names Duke a “Buy.” Last time I checked, the Blue Devils were undefeated, captained by the front-runner for national player of the year, and top-ranked in both polls. I don’t doubt that Duke has it in them to play even better but it makes little sense in light of the caveat and the whole strained analogy to label them a “Buy.” Duke’s abstract stock and the buzz around this team can’t get higher. If we are going to adhere to the stated logic, then this team should probably be a “Sell.” Granted, Duke is a great team and they are performing incredibly well, but if we are going to go with this whole metaphor, we should at least commit to the bit and acknowledge that it would be impossible for future performances to do anything but match the performance so far. At this point, I think we can all acknowledge that we all think Duke is good and that this is silly, but for now, let’s go with it.

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1. Associated Press (via The State): Clemson freshman Adonis Filer lit up the Citadel for 21 points on seven shots (he was a perfect 7-of-7 from the field but missed a foul shot). After letting the Bulldogs hang around for the first 10 minutes, Clemson broke the game open by locking down on defense. Don’t read too much into the beatdown (the Bulldogs trailed Georgia Tech 20-3 on its way to a 32 point loss), but a 41-point win is a 41-point win, even against Ken Pomeroy’s fifth-worst team in the country. Clemson will need a lot of this type of performance from Filer during ACC play.
2. Washington Post: Mark Turgeon is really concerned about how his team will perform in close games. Unfortunately, Maryland’s non-conference schedule only afforded it one such game (the season opening loss to Kentucky where Maryland went flat down the stretch). Since then it has been a rotating cast of cupcakes. Turgeon has had his team practicing those tight situations all season, but you can’t replicate the intensity of conference play on the practice floor.
3. Streaking the Lawn: Virginia‘s non-conference play was an emotional roller coaster. An undermanned Cavaliers team lost its season opener to George Mason. Less than a week later, they lost to a mediocre Delaware team and missed the chance to prove their own in the NIT Tip-Off. Then Tony Bennett’s team pulled off a shocking upset at Wisconsin and ground out a home win against Tennessee only to lose to a horrible Old Dominion team before Christmas. There were some cupcakes in between those contests, but it’s really tough to tell who the real Virginia is this season. It will be really interesting to see how North Carolina handles Bennett’s system this coming Sunday.
4. Duke Basketball Report: NC State freshman TJ Warren is on pace for a record-setting year. Currently, Warren is shooting 77-of-111 (69.4%) from the field. Only Brendan Haywood and Christian Laettner have sported better field goal percentages as a rookie — and Laettner didn’t manage enough attempts to make the record book. What’s especially impressive about Warren (compared to Haywood) is his versatility. Haywood never saw a shot longer than four feet that he liked, but Warren is a sick 8-of-13 from long range so far this year.
5. The Sporting News: Mason Plumlee looked rather pedestrian against Davidson last night. The Wildcats doubled him every time he touched the ball and his six turnovers show just how rattled he was by their two-pronged attack. In the first half specifically, Plumlee looked totally frustrated by the strategy. In the second half, he looked better (though still not great). But the reason Duke’s future opponents should be warned isn’t that he’ll come back more motivated — they should be warned because Duke still dominated a good Davidson team, winning by 17 points in a quasi-road game (covering Vegas’ 11.5 point spread and matching Ken Pomeroy’s prediction).

Apologies that we are a bit tardy in rolling out our Top 25; with the holidays behind us and the New Year officially upon us, we plan on hitting 2013 running. A fairly light week of hoops resulted in little movement in the RTC25. Duke remains #1 for the sixth straight week, Minnesota cracks the Top 10 for the first time, and NC State jumps back into the poll after making a departure for several weeks. In perhaps the most exciting game of the week, Gonzaga shot back up to #10 after a big road win in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. The Quick n’ Dirty after the jump.

Quick n’ Dirty Analysis.

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Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. Conference Play Rocks. Analyzing and prognosticating and laying out bold analytical claims about teams is a fun debate this time of year. Teams are assigned permanent labels. Players earn reputations, rightly or wrongly, that stick around far longer than they should. All of this is premature – the best advice in November and December is to reserve judgment. Because once conference play begins, teams’ identities shine through, and many of the perceptions and conclusions we make are rendered useless. Two of the best leagues in the country, the Big Ten and Big East, kicked off their conference slates Monday in grand fashion. And if you got a taste of Pittsburgh-Cincinnati, or Indiana-Iowa, or Michigan State-Minnesota, you can already infer the obvious: conference competition entails a whole new level of competitiveness and intensity. With that, it is now time to get into your first weekday of league play, with a hope that the rest of the reason brings the same if not more entertaining hoops action.

Your Watercooler Moment. Minnesota’s Good; Michigan State’s Almost There. We Knew That Already.

The Big Ten is a cluttered jumble of Tournament hopefuls and championship contenders.What Minnesota showed monday is that its nonconference work was no anomaly (photo credit: AP Photo).

For anyone who watched Minnesota and Michigan State play any portion of their nonconference schedules, this game was a perfect precursor for the type of gritty, hard-nosed, highly-competitive Big Ten showdowns that should play out in high frequency over the next two months. Minnesota’s win also confirmed what most already knew about the Gophers: this team is a serious threat to vie for the Big Ten crown. Loaded and Top-heavy as the Big Ten is this season, Tubby Smith’s team has it all: Andre Hollins is a heady lead guard with a wide arsenal of perimeter scoring skills. Trevor Mbakwe belongs in the NBA today. Rodney Williams is one of the two or three best pure athletes in college basketball. And Austin Hollins is a stingy on-ball defender who’s offensive game isn’t all that far behind. Put it all together, and what you get is Tubby Smith’s best team at Minnesota. The way both teams have looked so far this season, Michigan State taking the Gophers to the wire at the Barn is not an altogether bad outcome. The Spartans are still sorting out their frontcourt rotation, still trying to leverage all of Gary Harris’ creative intuition and still searching for the defense-and-rebounding identity that Tom Izzo’s teams gradually assume over the course of a season. Basically, the Gophers’ win confirmed most every empirical insight we had about both teams coming in. That’s comforting for my basketball brain, if anything.

Your Quick Hits…

• Hoosiers Flaunt Road Chops. The biggest skeptics of Indiana’s preseason No. 1 ranking were fairly unanimous on one perceived flaw: Indiana can’t win on the road. And you know what? They’re weren’t totally off their rockers. The Hoosiers did take their lumps last season when away from cushy Assembly Hall and the enormous home field advantage it awards them – particularly in Big Ten play, where they pulled out just three of nine road tests. There’s no telling how last year’s Indiana team would have responded to Monday’s road date at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, where a retooled and vastly improved Iowa squad gave the Hoosiers their best shot. In the end, Indiana’s immensely talented and deep roster overcame Iowa’s very best efforts, and that’s a huge relief if you’re an Indiana fan. If the Hoosiers can go into tough environments like Iowa and win the games they just weren’t ready for last season, there’s nothing standing in the way of a Big Ten regular season title. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Fox Sports Carolinas: NC State forward CJ Leslie has long been thought of as the Wolfpack’s most talented player, but his immaturity has overshadowed his innate talent for most of his first two years in Raleigh. However, his recent performance against St. Bonaventure, where Leslie totaled 33 points and eight rebounds, is the latest culmination of a season-long maturation process, according to Fox Sports’ Andrew Jones. Leslie, whom Mark Gottfried has coached very differently from other players, calling him by his first name “Calvin,” has finally started to show the potential that made him eigh’s most touted recruit in a long time. If Leslie can continue to improve, NC State has a fantastic chance to advance past last year’s Sweet Sixteen appearance.
2. Yahoo! Sports: Jeff Eisenberg of Yahoo! Sports, like many other prognosticators, is backing off of his original choice of NC State to win the conference. Eisenberg differed from most, however, in also selecting North Carolina to finish ahead of Duke as well (NC State-Duke-UNC was the most popular projection). He is now definitely backing off the Tar Heels as well, whose poor play has dropped them out of the Top 25; and while he favors Duke to win the conference now, he warns us not to give up on NC State. Eisenberg also calls attention to league disappointments (Florida State and UNC) and the burgeoning conference player of the year competition between Virginia Tech’s Erick Green (America’s leading scorer) and Duke’s Mason Plumlee.
3. Washington Post:  Maryland has sailed under the radar this year. After dropping an extremely close opener to then #3 Kentucky, the Terrapins have not lost another game. Still, the Terps only received seven votes in the latest Top 25 poll. This low profile is emblematic of the team’s coach, Mark Turgeon, who has had to replace one of the game’s iconic head coaches in Gary Williams. As detailed in Rick Maese’s article,Turgeon’s disciplined, calculating approach has been nurtured through various experiences in his career, dating back to middle school basketball. But while remaining fiercely competitive, he also has struggled to balance family with basketball. Regardless, after reading this piece it seems like Turgeon is the right man to lead the Terrapins forward as they transition from the ACC to the Big Ten.
4. Salisbury Post: A big part of Duke’s rise to #1 this year can be credited to an improvement in the team’s defense. Last year, Duke’s defense was the worst (#70) that it has been since Ken Pomeroy began his ratings in 2003. Duke’s defense has improved in nearly every facet this year and now ranks ninth in the Pomeroy rankings. Another notable accomplishment for this Duke team includes the fact that all five of its starters are averaging in double figures, which has not happened in Durham since 2003-04. However, Mike Krzyzewski knows that his team is not perfect, saying, “This season will not be a perfect one.” Still, with their performance against one of the toughest opening stretches in recent memory and an improved defense, it is hard not to be bullish about Duke’s long-term chances this year.
5. Florida Today: Flying under the radar during Christmas season was Miami‘s struggles in the Diamond Head Classic. Playing without senior forward Reggie Johnson, the Hurricanes ended up finishing fourth in the tournament, including a costly overtime loss to Indiana State in the third place game where Miami squandered a late seven-point lead. However, assuming Johnson can return from his injury, Miami should end up being alright. Miami has yet to lose a game where it has been at full strength (Durand Scott was suspended in the loss to Florida Gulf Coast) and Johnson missed the ISU game as well as the previous night’s defeat to San Diego State. Look for Miami to continue to fly under the radar in conference play, but they will need to be a bit more careful in the ACC because these two losses will give them a slightly smaller margin for error in their quest to make the NCAA Tournament.

After Miami undressed Central Florida on the road this week, it’s become very clear that this team is better than its 12-point road loss to Florida Gulf Coast to start the season. Throw in Florida State’s early struggles, North Carolina losing to a very mediocre Texas team and NC State giving up nearly 80 points to a offensively challenged Stanford team, and now it looks like the Hurricanes are the second best team in the ACC because of their improved backcourt play.

Miami is a team to be reckoned with thanks to improved backcourt play. (Photo: Al Diaz / Miami Herald Staff)

Jim Larranaga‘s team has all the pieces: an exciting — underrated, at least in terms of watchability — point guard, a veteran leader, a slew of athletic wings, and a terrific front line. But seriously, how awesome will the frontcourt battle between Duke and Miami be this year? Reggie Johnson and Mason Plumlee are two of the best back-to-the-basket guys in the country. Kenny Kadji and Ryan Kelly are two of the best stretch fours. Right now, Duke appears to have an edge, but just remember last year’s Duke – Miami game at Cameron Indoor Stadium for a look at Johnson’s value.

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1. Wilmington Star News: North Carolina State entered this season as the favorite to win the ACC, but a few shaky games and some tough losses gave fans reason to doubt if this team could live up to its lofty expectations. Now, dodging the question of whether or not these expectations were ever reasonable, the Wolfpack is starting to look like a real contender. In a victory Tuesday night over Stanford, the team’s four core veteran starters all scored over 15 points and looked cohesive. Though NCSU’s vaunted freshman class was mostly quiet while the veterans did their thing, the signs are clear that this squad could be very good by the time March rolls around.
2. Fayetteville Observer:  Mark Gottfried has given his team quite a bit of UCLA flavor, drawing upon his experience as an assistant coach for the Bruins for nearly 10 years, but the rest of the staff brings over some of that same culture. Director of Operations Jeff Dunlap played for UCLA, as did the Director of Player Development Larry Farmer. Of course, while Dunlap played during Gottfried’s time in Los Angeles, Farmer represents a different era. His teams went 89-1 and won three NCAA titles as a player on the legendary John Wooden squads that featured Bill Walton and Sidney Wicks. Farmer would later coach at UCLA for a few seasons in the 1980s, but those seasons naturally pale before his place as a player on the greatest dynasty in men’s college basketball. I can’t speak for how effective Farmer is or will be at developing NC State players, but if his talent is anywhere close to his acumen in telling stories about partying with Bill Walton, then he will definitely be a substantial resource.
3. Washington Post: Very quietly, the Maryland Terrapins have put together a nice 9-1 record, blemished only by a surprisingly close season-opening loss to Kentucky. Now, granted, since that game, the caliber of competition that Maryland has been playing has been somewhat lacking, yet a win over a George Mason team that beat Virginia, a blowout victory over Northwestern, and a collection of convincing landslide wins over the likes of Monmouth and South Carolina State paint the picture of a team that could be very good. Alex Len has gone from unknown foreign prospect to one of the top prospects in the NBA draft, yet, somehow, Maryland remains unranked. It’s a small thing, and something that doesn’t really concern the team that much, but don’t be surprised when Maryland starts popping up in the polls sooner rather than later.
4. ESPN: Dexter Strickland was never a point guard. In high school he played at the wing and, in his own mind, he was always a combo guard. Yet in his college career at North Carolina, Strickland has often been used at the point, spelling Larry Drew II, Kendall Marshall, and now Marcus Paige as needed. Somehow, the defense-and-dribble-drive focused guard became a true point guard, and so far this season, Strickland ranks fourth in the ACC in assists per game. Though he still plays the bulk of his minutes at shooting guard, a combination of experience and a more cerebral  approach to the game have made him one of the better distributors in the conference, and an asset to the Tar Heels as a second ball-handler and playmaker alongside the freshman Paige.
5. Syracuse Online: Michael Gbinije had a very brief career at Duke before transferring to Syracuse. Yet, because of the strange alignment of this particular historical moment, namely both Mike Krzyzewski and Jim Boeheim passing the 900-win threshold and the weirdness of conference realignment, means that Gbinije will have managed to play under the two winningest coaches in college basketball history as soon as Boeheim passes Bob Knight. He is also notable (or he will be notable) as being the only player in history to play on two separate ACC teams once Syracuse arrives in the league next season. I wouldn’t say this really means anything in particular, but it’s a nice weird footnote.

Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. ACC Contenders Make Statements. If you’re still questioning Duke’s status as the No. 1 team in the country, that stance is at least somewhat tenable. There are other teams – Michigan or Arizona, to name a couple – that have looked equally impressive in the context of easier schedules, but if “who-beats-who” isn’t your main barometer for gauging teams, and you feel Duke simply hasn’t looked as complete or well-rounded as the Wolverines or the Wildcats or Louisville or any other team, well, that’s your prerogative. But if you’re still questioning Duke’s position atop the ACC, there’s no logical explanation for your premise. You’re wrong (sorry!); it is just that simple. With that in mind, two teams (Miami and NC State) made strong claims to the No. 2 spot in the suddenly top-heavy league, and while a final verdict won’t be delivered for a few months, tonight’s events provided a nice early measuring stick for the league’s upper tier.

Your Watercooler Moment. Who’s Better: Miami or NC State?

With Durand Scott back from his suspension, Miami is poised to make a run at ACC glory (photo credit: US Presswire).

The preseason top-five buzz on NC State always felt like a huge stretch. A couple of talented freshmen don’t instantly elevate an 11-seed to national contender status. Using last season’s NCAA Tournament success as a baseline for predictive measures is always a risky endeavor. When the Wolfpack were run off the Puerto Rico Tip-off floor in a 20-point bludgeoning at the hands of Oklahoma State, my inclinations were confirmed. Miami didn’t carry nearly the same level of hype into this season, though an early season loss at Florida Gulf Coast cratered the Miami-as-ACC-contender bandwagon before it ever got rolling to begin with. Both teams have since recovered, and both proved their early season stumbling points are very much in the rear view Tuesday night. The Wolfpack’s 88-point output against a team as defensively sharp as Stanford – the Cardinal entered Tuesday ranked 15^th on a per-possession scale – is without doubt the best we’ve seen Mark Gottfried’s team look thus far. I’m ready to revise expectations for the once vastly overrated Wolfpack. Even so, I’m even more impressed by Miami’s thorough dismantling of UCF, who boasts a future NBA big man in Keith Clanton and – this counts double in my vague which-win-is-better grade book – was playing at home, riding a three-game winning streak. Both wins provide credible non-league resume heft, and while I’m eager to anoint an ACC No. 2, it’s simply too early to make subjective judgments when league play has yet to begin. Here’s what I know, though: Miami and NC State stumbled early, got back on their feet and appear to be rounding into form at just the right time. The ACC season will parse out the specifics. For now, the Wolfpack and Hurricanes belong in the league’s upper echelon, with Duke living a distinguished existence inside its own category.

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Big Ten Powers Struggle With Cupcakes. The scheduling powers-that-be set up Ohio State and Michigan State’s slate with putative guarantee games before big non-conference tests against Kansas and Texas, respectively (Texas isn’t the team most envisioned heading into the season, but the Longhorns are no pushover). The Buckeyes faced Winthrop, who hadn’t picked up its first win over a Division I opponent until it beat Ohio three days ago, while the Spartans had a slightly trickier road game at Bowling Green on their hands. These set up perfectly as two tune-up games for two Big Ten frontrunners. In the end, Ohio State and Michigan State got tougher tests than they probably expected, although both managed to come away with victories. Whether these struggles were a mere product of a common case of look-ahead syndrome or something more concerning that bears watching heading into the weekend remains to be seen. Read the rest of this entry »