It’s another weekend of conference play in the ACC, so let’s take a look at the match-ups from an advanced statistics perspective. All statistics used are for results in ACC conference games only along with team rankings (#1-#15) in each category. For each game we will show how the two teams compare in efficiency ratings and the four factors, offense versus defense. We will also look at interesting areas of particular strength and weakness that could hold the key to the outcomes of these games. All numbers are from Ken Pomeroy’s site and are current through games of February 12, 2014. The games are presented in the order of best combined Pomeroy overall team rankings (all times EST). This weekend features four games that involve the top eight teams in the standings.

Saturday – Pittsburgh (20-5, 8-4 ACC) @ North Carolina (16-7, 6-4 ACC) – CBS (1:00 PM)

Roy Williams Has The Tar Heels Pointed In The Right Direction.
(Photo: USAToday.com)

Pomeroy Prediction: (#27) North Carolina 69-68 (#15) Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is coming off that emotionally crushing last second loss to Syracuse on Tyler Ennis’s 35 footer Wednesday night, making the Panthers o-for-4 in games against the top three teams in the league. With no more opportunities for a huge signature win, this game on the road against the red-hot Tar Heels looks like Pittsburgh’s last chance for a regular season win that may impress the NCAA Selection Committee. The Syracuse game was the second time the Panthers lost at home on a last second three pointer, with the other delivered by Virginia’s Malcolm Brogdon. But don’t feel too sorry for Pittsburgh – they also have two overtime wins over ACC bottom dwellers Miami and Virginia Tech. Not only has North Caroliona won five straight conference games, but they have been impressive doing so, winning all by double digits. The Tar Heels have even begun to show improvement from the free throw line. They have only bested the 73 percent mark in four games all season, but three of those have been in their last four outings. With Wednesday’s weather related cancellation of the Duke game, North Carolina should be the fresher team physically for sure. But the current mental state of the Pittsburgh team is what may swing the game in the direction of the Tar Heels. After Wednesday’s major disappointment, the toughness and resiliency of the Panthers will be tested.

Stat Watch. Tempo will be very important in this one, with Pittsburgh (61 possessions per game) preferring a slower pace and North Carolina (67 PPG) wanting to speed things up. North Carolina hopes that being the fresher team shows up on the boards, where both teams normally excel. If Pittsburgh loses that battle, it will be awfully hard to see them winning, unless they have an unusually good shooting performance against the stout Tar Heel defense.

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It’s another weekend of conference play in the ACC, so let’s take a look at the match-ups from an advanced statistics perspective. All statistics used are for results in ACC conference games only along with team rankings (#1-#15) in each category. For each game we will show how the two teams compare in efficiency ratings and the four factors, offense versus defense. We will also look at interesting areas of particular strength and weakness that could hold the key to the outcomes of these games. All numbers are from Ken Pomeroy’s site and are current through games of February 5, 2014. The games are presented in the order of best combined Pomeroy overall team rankings (all times EST).

Sunday – Clemson (15-6, 6-3 ACC) @ Syracuse (22-0, 9-0 ACC) – ESPNU (6:00 PM)

Freshman Point Guard Tyler Ennis Leads Top Ranked Syracuse.
(Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports)

Pomeroy Prediction: (#4) Syracuse 59-49 (#47) Clemson

Syracuse continues to win in different ways which is really the mark of a true winner. The Orange win on off-shooting nights, when they fall behind like they did against Miami, or when they blow a late leads like they did last Saturday versus Duke. Trevor Cooney carried them on Monday night against Notre Dame, which is a good sign, as Cooney is the only scary three-point shooter on the roster. With Tyler Ennis running the show, and the front line featuring C.J. Fair and Jerami Grant playing well on both ends of the court, the Orange are still undefeated and now ranked #1 in the country. If Cooney has regained his touch, this becomes a team that is really tough to guard. On the other hand, Clemson is a team of extremes when the Tigers take to the road in the ACC. They have won three of their five conference road contests but lost the other two in non-competitive blowout losses to Pittsburgh and North Carolina. This looks like another tough road trip for Clemson where its offensive struggles will be magnified against Syracuse. To beat the Orange, you need some shooters to come through and the Tigers are only making 31.2 percent of their threes. Even worse for Clemson may be the disparity in turnovers in this game, as the Tigers are (statistically) the worst ball-handling team in the ACC.

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1. Sports On Earth: College basketball stole the show this weekend. The ACC alone was home to two incredible finishes, this being the first (the second is at the bottom of the post). Duke–Syracuse lived up to all of the hype — it was a fun game to watch with both teams exerting dominance from different areas of the floor (Syracuse in the paint, Duke beyond the arc), and Tyler Thornton managing three threes in under two minutes to get Duke back in the game. It proved what we knew about Syracuse and what we thought we knew about Duke. Go ahead and circle two weeks from Saturday on your calendars because the rematch in Durham is sure to be terrific.
2. Tomahawk Nation: In much worse news, Ian Miller is hurt again for Florida State, a team that is now squarely on the wrong side of the bubble at 4-5 in ACC play (albeit against a brutal schedule). Without Miller in the lineup, the Seminoles are likely to look much more like last year’s disappointing version of the team. In addition to being a team leader, he was probably the Seminoles’ most important scoring option and there’s little to no margin for error with Florida State’s current losses. The only good news is that the team has four upcoming games against non-NCAA Tournament caliber opponents. And with games with North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Syracuse still looming, winning all four of those is the best path for Florida State to have a positive Selection Sunday experience.
3. Draft Express: Good interview with PJ Hairston about his transition from North Carolina to the NBA D-League. Thanks to online classes, Hairston is on track to get his degree next year and is still close with the guys in Chapel Hill (although he didn’t answer when he was asked if he was treated fairly by the university). Hairston cited the frequency of games as one of the biggest challenges with the transition, although his scoring numbers so far have been terrific. Another interesting nugget is his philosophy: If he’s chosen fifth in the upcoming NBA Draft, he would feel that “four people […] worked harder than” him. That fire should come in handy and explains his no-fear personality on the court.
4. Winston-Salem Journal: What was an optimistic start for Wake Forest is sliding into a concerning but well-known rut. The Demon Deacons lost at home to Georgia Tech (missing Trae Golden in addition to Robert Carter for most of the game) over the weekend. This is the same Georgia Tech that was 2-6 going into the game and yet still came out and took control of things in the second half. The bad news is that the Demon Deacons are only favored in one of their remaining nine games (according to KenPom). Suffice it to say that if they finish 5-13 in conference play, Jeff Bzdelik is probably done.
5. Washington Post: Seth Allen showed exactly what Maryland needs him to do going forward in its weekend beatdown of Virginia Tech. Before getting too excited, though, remember this was a win over Virginia Tech. Still, Allen appears to be getting healthier as conference play progresses and he’s quietly morphing into the true point guard Maryland desperately needs.

Video Extra: Malcolm Brogdon drilled this game-winning three to win at Pittsburgh, pushing Virginia to 8-1 in ACC play. Oh, and the Cavaliers will be favored in every one of its games going forward. The only two frightening games are a trip to Clemson and when Syracuse comes to Charlottesville. Beat Syracuse (or truthfully, just split those two games), and Virginia has a great shot at the ACC regular season title.

Hello February! College hoops welcomes you into 2014’s second month with a mouth-watering slate of action. You may be sold at “Duke-Syracuse,” but there will be plenty of games that don’t set Carrier Dome attendance records worth watching. That’s not to say that your college basketball fan credentials will be confiscated if you aren’t settling in to your couch for some ACC on ESPN action at 6:30 PM ET today – because they will be – but here are some other storylines to watch on the first day of February.

Perfection Will Be Tested

All Three Unbeatens Are In Action Saturday. With Visitors From Durham In Town, C.J. Fair And Syracuse Look To Be The Most Vulnerable Of The Trio.

For the first time since 1976, there are three teams 20-0 or better in college basketball, and all three are in action on Saturday. Wichita State shouldn’t have any issues with Evansville (3-6 in the MVC) at The Roundhouse (3:00 PM ET, ESPNU), but both Arizona and Syracuse face serious threats to their dreams of perfection. The Wildcats visit Berkeley to take on a Cal team (10:30 PM ET, P12 Nets) which had been undefeated at home up until Wednesday, when Arizona State squeezed out an overtime win over the Bears. If Mike Montgomery’s team is to add the signature victory of all signature victories to its resume, they will need senior Richard Solomon to have a big game against that impressive Arizona frontcourt. All the way across the country, Duke would be well-served to find a way to match up with the impressive frontcourt of their undefeated opponent. The Blue Devils are not a great rebounding team, but in their game with Syracuse (6:30 PM ET, ESPN), keeping the Orange (ninth nationally in OR%) off the offensive glass will be imperative for Coach K’s squad. On the other end, look for Jabari Parker to get plenty of touches out of the high post. A record crowd is expected at the Carrier Dome for this one, which obviously sounds like good news for Syracuse. Maybe not, though. The last time there was an attendance record set at the dome (last February, versus Georgetown), a do-it-all 6’8” forward named Otto Porter torched the Orange for 33 points and eight rebounds in a lopsided victory for the visitors. Can Parker induce a little déjà vu on Saturday, and end Syracuse’s perfect season while he’s at it?

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It’s another weekend of conference play in the ACC, so let’s take a look at the match-ups from an advanced statistics perspective. All statistics used are for results in ACC conference games only along with team rankings (#1-#15) in each category. For each game we will show how the two teams compare in efficiency ratings and the four factors, offense versus defense. We will also look at interesting areas of particular strength and weakness that could hold the key to the outcomes of these games. All numbers are from Ken Pomeroy’s site and are current through games of January 29, 2014. The games are presented in the order of best combined Pomeroy overall team rankings (all times EST). This weekend features two heavyweight matchups featuring the four teams that are clearly the class of the conference thus far.

Saturday – Duke (17-4, 6-2 ACC) @ Syracuse (20-0, 7-0 ACC) – ESPN (6:30 PM)

Record Carrier Dome Crowd Awaits Duke.
(Photo: Wikimedia Commons)

A record Carrier Dome crowd is expected for Duke’s much-anticipated first trip to Syracuse. ESPN’s “College GameDay” will be there as well, adding to the hoopla. Duke hopes it can continue to play as well as it has in the last five games. During that stretch, the Blue Devils’ much maligned defense has held opponents to an excellent 93 points per 100 possessions. Their most impressive win came Monday night on the road over Pittsburgh, whose only other conference loss came at the Carrier Dome in a close game. An unsung hero lately has been Duke’s Amile Jefferson, who is the only player in the ACC’s top three in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Syracuse just keeps rolling along, rarely blowing teams out but always executing extremely well down the stretch of games. Freshman point guard Tyler Ennis has been amazing all season, but has even been more impressive in ACC play. Despite playing so many minutes, including going the full 40 in three of the last four games, Ennis seems to be at his best in the last five minutes of games. He does whatever the Orange needs him to do, and has become a more consistent scorer with double figure points in all seven ACC games. There will be a lot of talent on the floor, particularly at the forward spot, with each team having two versatile 6’8″ frontcourt players, C.J. Fair and Jerami Grant for Syracuse and Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood for Duke. Another key could be if either team’s sharp shooter, Trevor Cooney of the Orange or Andre Dawkins for the Blue Devils, gets free and knocks down multiple threes. Naturally, whenever a team plays Syracuse we have to look at how they will try and deal with that famously active zone defense. Duke has done pretty well against other zones but nobody plays it quite like the Orange. The Blue Devils will probably try and slide their forwards in and around the lane to use their quickness, but they will have to adjust to how well Syracuse reacts to the ball. Tempo will also play a big role, with Duke wanting to force the pace defensively, hoping to wear down the Orange and make them use their weaker bench. But other teams have tried to do that and found out that Ennis is hard to speed up.

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1. Charlottesville Daily Progress: Great profile of Anthony Gill by Whitey Reid. Gill hasn’t had the easiest journey to Charlottesville, but he’s still a good-hearted prankster ready to dupe an unknowing reporter into believing he is a magician or once had a two-headed pet cat. Gill seems like the ultimate glue guy: a solid basketball player — he’s averaging just shy of eight points in 18 minutes a game — who’s fun to be around.
2. Nike: Big uniform news, as Nike announced new “Hyper Elite” uniforms for seven programs, including Duke, North Carolina and Syracuse. Oh, and they’re throwbacks. I personally like all three (although North Carolina’s current jerseys are some of the best in the country). Take a look for yourself below.
   

   Nike’s new throwback uniforms are excellent. (photo credit: Nike)

3. Daily Orange: Another interesting part of the “2-3 Zone Series” focusing on Syracuse‘s relative lack of recent success in the NBA is that it’s hard to say how much the zone plays into the trend. It’s true the NBA doesn’t play much zone and probably isn’t looking to spend time teaching draft picks on the ins and outs of elite man-to-man defense. But Syracuse doesn’t have a problem getting players drafted. I think it also comes down to the type of players Syracuse recruits. They’re very good, but the Orange don’t draw nearly the number of McDonald’s All-Americans as the other blue-bloods. Jesse Dougherty does a good job in getting feedback from former players working professionally both here and abroad. Unrelatedly, Jim Boeheim is already falling in love with North Carolina cuisine.
4. State of the U: Informative graphic showing Miami‘s scholarships over the next four years. This year’s team doesn’t have much depth, but the Hurricanes only have three scholarships left to give over the next two years (thanks in part to being down a scholarship). And amazingly, the Hurricanes have six seniors on the roster, which means there’s a big class coming to set the tone for the next few years. We’re also going to get to see what a Jim Larranaga-constructed team looks like in Coral Gables.
5. FSU News: David Walker reflects on the paradox that is Florida State basketball. While football dwarfs basketball’s popularity in Tallahassee, the fan base has come to expect some degree of success under Leonard Hamilton. Apart from last year — when Hamilton fielded a fairly young team that didn’t quite gel — the Seminoles have been perennial postseason warriors despite institutional disadvantages when compared with some of the more basketball-focused schools in the conference.

1. Sporting News: While it isn’t the point of this article, it’s totally ludicrous that Lamar Patterson was left off the Wooden Award watch list. He’s shooting over 55 percent on twos, 40 percent on threes, and 80% from the charity stripe. Oh yeah, he’s also Pittsburgh’s best passer and a capable rebounder. It’s a shame his snub took place right before his worst game of the season, a game in which Mike Krzyzewski set out to shut Patterson down by blitzing him on screens and draping 6’8″ Rodney Hood over him for most of the game.
2. Tallahassee Democrat: With so many teams in the ACC, unbalanced schedules abound and the rollercoaster of difficulty week-to-week is even wilder than in past years. That means that the same week Duke heads to Pittsburgh and Syracuse for road games, Florida State embarks on a three-week stretch as the probable favorites in every game. The other interesting news from Corey Clark is that Florida State is applying for a medical redshirt (for a sixth year of eligibility) for Kiel Turpin, who’s been injured all year. Even if he wins the argument for a sixth year, Turpin has an uphill battle for playing time ahead of him with Michael Ojo and Boris Bojanovsky progressing every day.
3. Gobbler Country: For Virginia Tech‘s new athletic director, “fixing the basketball problem” may actually also involve physically renovating Cassell Coliseum, a building that is now nearly 50 years old. There’s still a decade to decide on a course of action (and see how Clemson’s renovation of Littlejohn Coliseum goes), but there’s no denying that a swanky new arena can inject some excitement into an apathetic fan base. Having to bus to a nearby city would almost certainly have the opposite effect for the short-term, however.
4. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Big news out of Georgia Tech, as Robert Carter is undergoing tests to see whether he will be healthy in time to play this season. Obviously, his return would make the Yellow Jackets an entirely different team, as he was nearly averaging a double-double before hurting his knee. While Brian Gregory may not be popping up in many hot seat articles just yet, his current lack of success will heat that seat up in a hurry.
5. CBSSports: Jon Rothstein took a look at Virginia and its balanced attack. Last year Akil Mitchell and Joe Harris were two of the statistically most dominant players in the ACC, and this year, at least on the surface (per game stats), they’ve both taken steps forward. But the team is actually a lot better thanks to additional steps forward from Malcolm Brogdon and more minutes for Mike Tobey. It’s much harder to game plan around four or five legitimate options than two.

After a little over eight minutes of play Saturday afternoon in Cameron Indoor Stadium, Duke held an 11-10 lead over Florida State, but their coach was not pleased. During the second media timeout, Mike Krzyzewski ripped off his jacket and then proceeded to rip into his team. The Blue Devils responded by outscoring the Seminoles 32-15 during the remainder of the half and maintained a double-figure lead throughout, winning 78-56. It was a milestone win for Krzyzewski, who joined Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim as the only coaches with 900 career wins at a single school.

Mike Krzyzewski Fires up Duke During  the First Half versus Florida State.
(AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

Here’s what had Coach K so upset. Duke had executed the defensive game plan well early, forcing Florida State into seven turnovers before that second media timeout, but the Blue Devils had wasted that effort with otherwise casual play – four turnovers of their own, 3-of-16 shooting, and only two free throw attempts. Perhaps even more troubling was the four consecutive fast break opportunities that his team had allowed Florida State during that time. Duke was fortunate that the Seminoles only converted on two of those chances with Ian Miller missing a wide-open three and Robert Gilchrist misfiring on those two attempts from the line. From that point on, Duke was much more aggressive. Even though the Blue Devils struggled to make shots — as most teams do against the tall and athletic Seminoles — the Blue Devils found other ways to score. Duke dominated the boards, grabbing more offensive rebounds (27) than Florida State did in total (24), and repeatedly attacked the basket, shooting 43 free throws compared to 18 for the Seminoles. Duke also had a huge edge in bench points (42-11) but part of that was because Rodney Hood (18 points) was unable to start the game due to an interesting uniform issue that required him to borrow shorts from a teammate.

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It’s another weekend of conference play in the ACC, so let’s take a look at the match-ups from an advanced statistics perspective. All statistics used are for results in ACC conference games only along with team rankings (#1-#15) in each category. For each game we will show how the two teams compare in efficiency ratings and the four factors, offense versus defense. We will also look at interesting areas of particular strength and weakness that could hold the key to the outcomes of these games. All numbers are from Ken Pomeroy’s site and are current through games of January 22, 2014. The games are presented in the order of best combined Pomeroy overall team rankings.

Saturday: Florida State (13-5, 4-2 ACC) @ Duke (15-4, 4-2 ACC) – ESPN (12:00 PM)

Pomeroy Prediction: (#11) Duke 78-72 (#21) Florida State 

Jabari Parker Has Been More Aggressive Lately For Duke.
(Photo: Ethan Hyman)

This weekend’s kick-off game should be a great match-up between surging Duke and a Florida State team that has beaten every ACC team it has played not named Virginia. And don’t discount the Seminoles’ chances just because this game is at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Florida State already has two impressive road conference wins over Clemson and Miami, each by double figures. In a bit of a surprise, the Seminoles lead the ACC in three-point shooting (43.8%), with sophomore Devon Bookert leading the way with a league-leading 12-for-19 (63.2%). The Florida State defense is tough on opposing shooters and ranks #16 nationally in adjusted efficiency, but it has not been quite as stingy in league play. They will be facing a hot Duke team that remade its lineup, is using its bench more, and has had success with it — winning three straight. The Blue Devils got their first road win of the season on Wednesday over Miami and have averaged an outstanding 121.7 points per 100 possessions over the last three outings. Jabari Parker appears to be bouncing back from his mini-slump, averaging 20 points per game in the last two outings. As an indication of Parker’s aggressiveness lately, he shot 18 free throws in those two games after only attempting a total of 12 in his first four ACC games.

Stat Watch. Florida State has two glaring weaknesses: defensive rebounding and ball-handling. Even though Duke has been weak on the offensive boards for most of the year, they grabbed 15 of them against Miami. And in their last home game, the Devils forced N.C. State into 15 first half turnovers, so the key to the game will probably be how well Florida State takes care of the ball. If they can make the game depend on who shoots better, Florida State has the edge, with their defensive field goal shooting (38.3%) much stronger than Duke’s defense (45.3%).

Saturday – Pittsburgh (17-2, 5-1 ACC) @ Maryland (11-8, 3-3 ACC) – ESPN2 (6:00 PM)

Pomeroy Prediction: (#2) Pittsburgh 73-65 (#66) Maryland

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It’s the third weekend of conference play in the ACC, so let’s take a look at the match-ups from an advanced statistics perspective. With every team except North Carolina having played at least four ACC games, we will now be using conference games only statistics along with team rankings in each category. For each game we will show how the two teams compare in efficiency ratings and the four factors, offense versus defense. We will also look at interesting areas of particular strength and weakness that could hold the key to the outcomes of these games. All numbers are from Ken Pomeroy’s site and are current through games of January 15, 2014. The games are presented in the order of best combined Pomeroy overall team rankings (all times EST).

Saturday – Pittsburgh (16-1, 4-0 ACC) @ Syracuse (17-0, 4-0 ACC) – ESPN (4:00 PM)

Syracuse’s C.J. Fair and Pittsburgh’s James Robinson Renew Their Rivalry in a New Conference.
(Photo: bigstory.ap.org)

The best match-up of the weekend is ironically between these two ACC newcomers. Something has to give as Pittsburgh is leading the conference with 78.5 points per game in ACC play, while the Orange have the stingiest defense, allowing only 50.0 points per game. As he has all season, senior Lamar Patterson leads the way for the Panthers, averaging 20.0 PPG in ACC games. He will probably match up frequently with Syracuse’s All-America candidate C.J. Fair (17.1 PPG) in Pitt’s man-to-man defense. The battle at point guard may decide the game as Syracuse’s freshman sensation Tyler Ennis faces off with Pitt sophomore James Robinson. In conference games only, Ennis leads the league in assists (6.5 APG) and steals (3.0 SPG), while Robinson has the ACC’s best assist/turnover ratio (16/2).

Stat Watch. Pittsburgh leads the ACC by a huge margin in field goal percentage in conference games at 51.6 percent, while Syracuse is 10th at 40.9. Ball-handling will be important as these are the top two teams in the ACC in steals. It will also be interesting to see how many three-point shots Pittsburgh tries against the Orange zone, as they are last in the league in attempts, while Syracuse allows more than any other team.

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