ACC Weekend Preview: Opening Weekend

Posted by Mick McDonald on November 10th, 2017

Teams around the ACC tip off their regular seasons this weekend with a host of games that will start the canvas to what will undoubtedly be a competitive and unpredictable conference slate. Here are the key games this weekend that will whet your appetite for the season ahead:

Friday, November 10

  • Northern Iowa (KenPom #129) at North Carolina: The Tar Heels begin the season without star point guard Joel Berry II, but the senior point guard is expected back for the PK80 event in Portland, Oregon, later this month. Until then, games like these are good opportunities for some of the younger guards like Brandon Robinson and Seventh Woods to gain some experience. Keep an eye out for freshman Jalek Felton, especially in Berry’s absence, to leap onto the scene. Northern Iowa is part of a wide-open Missouri Valley landscape that no longer includes Wichita State, but a meticulous style of play and 6’10” senior Bennett Koch (57% eFG last season) could give a young North Carolina front line some issues.

Can Bryant Crawford and a talented but crowded backcourt ease the loss of John Collins? (AP)

  • Elon (KenPom #106) at Duke: Our first chance to see Duke’s highly-touted freshman class comes against an Elon team expected to compete for the CAA championship. How will Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter co-exist in the frontcourt? Is Trevon Duval the point guard Mike Krzyzewski has been searching for since Tyus Jones left campus? Will there be any further Grayson Allen drama? Tonight gives us our first opportunity to overreact wildly. Keep an eye on Elon’s Tyler Siebring, a 6’8” forward who led the Phoenix in scoring a year ago and shot nearly 40 percent from three.

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ACC Burning Questions: Duke Blue Devils

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on November 9th, 2017

This team preview is part of the RTC ACC microsite’s preseason coverage.

Burning Question: Can Grayson Allen become the senior leader a young Duke team needs?

With a starting lineup full of potential NBA first-rounders, Duke is receiving a lot of love in national preseason rankings — #1 in the AP and USA Today polls, #2 in the RTC16. But four of those projected stars are freshmen, and Mike Krzyzewski only returns one player of significance from last year’s ACC Tournament championship team. Of course, that player just happens to be the most polarizing figure in college basketball — senior guard Grayson Allen. Just three short years ago, Duke entered the 2014-15 season with a very similar roster makeup and eventually rode freshman stars Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones all the way to an NCAA title. The unheralded but equally important component of that team’s success was the leadership of its lone senior, Quinn Cook. For the Blue Devils to meet their lofty goals this season, Allen will need to channel Cook’s leadership to guide his young teammates in a similar fashion — essentially by having a productive season on the floor and avoiding any further dirty-play incidents.

As the lone senior for Duke, Grayson Allen must provide positive leadership to the talented youngsters on the team, which means he must avoid any more episodes of dirty-play.
(Getty Images)

Allen has been in the college basketball spotlight since his surprising 16-point outburst as a freshman in the 2015 National Championship game. His career at Duke since that night in Indianapolis has experienced many ups and downs. His highs have been very high: an outstanding Final Four performance; consensus Second Team All-American as a sophomore. And his lows have been very low: three separate high-profile tripping incidents; a disappointing injury-riddled junior season. Given such an inconsistent history combined with his naturally reserved demeanor, it’s fair to question whether Allen is effectively capable of providing such leadership. For his part, Krzyzewski wants the senior to lead the team in behavior while off the floor and during stoppages in play. But during live game action, Duke’s coach prefers that Allen worry about his own play in an effort to “hunt his shot.” To free him to do so, Duke is counting on five-star freshman Trevon Duval to run the point guard position. The newcomer needs to improve his outside shot and will have to demonstrate that he can make good decisions at this level, but he’s very explosive off the bounce and thrives in transition — finishing at the rim with strength. Duval’s length and athleticism could also make him a potential demon on the defensive end of the floor. The other rookie starter on the perimeter, Gary Trent, Jr., will be counted on to help Allen provide the kind of space-creating three-point shooting that Duke teams always seem to have. Read the rest of this entry »

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ACC Non-Conference Games: 10 to Watch

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on November 9th, 2017

As the opening of the regular season draws near, it’s a good time to closely examine the schedules of all 15 ACC squads and pick out the 10 most interesting non-conference match-ups. The following list excludes any potential games in early season tournaments as well as the ACC/Big Ten Challenge contests — we’ll take a in-depth look at those separately in later posts. This group of 10 games are listed in chronological order (all game times are ET) — mark your calendars now.,

  • November 10 (Friday) – Georgia Tech vs. UCLA (Shanghai, China) – ESPN, 11:30 PM. The Yellow Jackets are traveling over 7,500 miles from Atlanta to tip off Josh Pastner’s second year at the helm. This game shapes up as an interesting battle between one of the nation’s best offenses from a year ago (UCLA – #2 KenPom Offensive Rating) and one of the stingiest defenses (Georgia Tech – #6 KenPom Defensive Rating). A big key to settling this game will be the individual match-up of two excellent returning seniors in the post, with Georgia Tech’s Ben Lammers (9.9% block rate in 2016-17) attempting to stop the smooth mid-range game of UCLA’s Thomas Welsh (132.2 Offensive Rating). Unfortunately for Pastner, he’ll be without two of his starters — Josh Okogie and Tadric Jackson have been suspended indefinitely for breaking NCAA rules — while it’s unclear what the game time status will be for UCLA’s LiAngelo Ball and friends after their shoplifting incident at a Hangzhou Louis Vuitton store.

Tom Izzo will be looking for his second win in 12 tries versus Mike Krzyzewski in this year’s Champions Classic. (Chris Trotman)

  • November 14 (Tuesday) – Duke vs Michigan State (Champions Classic – Chicago) – ESPN, 7:00 PM. This could be college basketball’s marquee non-conference match-up of the season, with both squads ranked in virtually everyone’s preseason top four (including the newly released RTC16). Duke may have an edge in raw talent but the Spartans boast National Player of the Year favorite Miles Bridges and a host of other experienced players to surround him. Next week’s game may be Tom Izzo’s best chance in years to beat his friend and rival Mike Krzyzewski. For Coach K to extend his success against Izzo — the Duke head coach holds a 10-1 career advantage — the Blue Devils will need Grayson Allen to end his personal slump in this annual event. Allen has only managed a total of 18 points on 23 percent shooting in Duke’s last two appearances (both losses) in the Champions Classic.

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The 2017-18 RTC16: Preseason Edition

Posted by Walker Carey on November 9th, 2017

And so it begins — that wonderful time of year when we once again see old familiar faces on the television along with our favorite teams playing college basketball. It is a glorious time, indeed. With a sizable slate of games set to commence on Friday, we officially unveil our 2017-18 preseason (and revamped) RTC Top 16. We have decided to trim our poll from 25 to 16 teams this season as a means to provide more thorough analysis and justifications for the best teams in the country. This initial poll will hold for the next 10 days or so, but you can expect our weekly regular season RTC16 to release on every subsequent Monday morning starting November 20. Along with the rankings will be the usual quick and dirty analysis that dives more deeply into how those teams are shaking out from top to bottom. To see how we did last year, check out our 2016-17 preseason poll — sure, we nailed a few (North Carolina, Oregon, Kansas, Gonzaga and Kentucky), and missed on some others (Indiana, Syracuse, Connecticut and Texas). We promise we will try to do better this time around. Here’s the preseason poll. Enjoy opening weekend!

Quick N’ Dirty Thoughts.

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Morning Five: 11.07.17 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on November 7th, 2017

morning5

  1. We hate to open a M5 before the season begins by speculating about a coach’s future, but we do wonder how long of a leash Bruce Pearl has at Auburn. When Pearl came to Auburn following his run-in with the NCAA that resulted in a show-cause penalty, the general consensus was that he would quickly turn the Tigers into a contender. Unfortunately for Pearl and the Auburn administration,  that process has taken longer than anticipated and this year’s team was hit with a big setback when they announced that Danjel Purifoy and Austin Wiley, two of their top players, will be held out indefinitely as they are part of an ongoing investigation that is believed to be related to Chuck Person and the FBI. That announcement was followed by an exhibition loss to Division II Barry University and the news that longtime athletic director Jay Jacobs will be stepping down at the end of the academic year. If Pearl doesn’t show some signs of progress and there are signs of the FBI investigation moving beyond Person, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a new athletic director move in another direction.
  2. The Tigers are far from the only team to be feeling the effects of the FBI investigation. In fact, in their own state, Alabama announced yesterday that it will be holding out Collin Sexton, one of the most hyped freshman in the country, while they investigate potential eligibility issues that also appear to be related to the FBI investigation. Sexton’s absence could be a massive blow to an Alabama team that appears to be on the verge of making a breakthrough this year. Without Sexton and his offensive firepower (MVP of the U-17 World Championships where he led the US in scoring and assists) those hopes of a NCAA Tournament appearance would be in serious jeopardy.
  3. Staying in the SEC, but avoiding the FBI (for now), Texas A&M  will be without the services of Robert Williams for the first two games of the regular season after he was suspended for a violation of school policy. Williams (11.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game as a freshman) is a potential lottery pick and his absence against West Virginia in the season-opening will make an upset even more unlikely. As as Williams comes back to the team focused, the Aggies should be one of the top teams in the SEC. Like the absence of Williams, we would not worry too much about Duke suspending freshman point guard Trevon Duval from its exhibition against Bowie State this Saturday for a violation of team rules. While we would normally be more worried about a freshman getting suspended so early, Duke has enough experience with Grayson Allen in the backcourt that they should be able to withstand any growing pains while Duval adjusts to college life.
  4. While not nearly on the level of the FBI investigation, Georgia Tech‘s announcement that it will be holding Tadric Jackson and Josh Okogie out of games indefinitely for receiving impermissible benefits could have an enormous impact on their season. Jackson and Okogie reportedly received less than $525 and $750, respectively, in benefits from a booster. Based on precedent, in addition to repaying the person who provided the benefits, Jackson would be expected to miss 20% of the regular season (six games) and Okogie would be expected to miss 30% of the regular season (nine games), but as we all know this is up to the discretion of the NCAA and at this point we don’t know what that will mean.
  5. Many people downplay the importance of preseason polls, but at the very least they signal the imminent arrival of the college basketball season (and they are actually fairly accurate). This year’s preseason poll wasn’t particularly shocking as it is mostly based on projections and there tends to be quite a bit of groupthink with these things. The most interesting things to us are that four of the top five teams will be playing in the Champions Class, which usually has at least two or three top-5 teams, but based on our recollection it has never had all four in that category. The other is that the voters seem to be assuming that a lot of players will be able to maintain their eligibility despite the ongoing NCAA investigation.
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Projecting the ACC’s Breakout Sophomores

Posted by Brad Jenkins on November 2nd, 2017

Every preseason we take a hard look at the rosters around the ACC and wonder which returning players will make the leap from role player to key contributor. Lately we have watched many of those returnees come from relative obscurity to full stardom in just one season: players like Jaron Blossomgame (Clemson, 2015-16), Matt Farrell (Notre Dame, 2016-17), and John Collins (Wake Forest 2016-17). In most instances, few outside of the specific program expected such a drastic improvement. For example, raise your hand if you had Collins pegged as one of the ACC’s top three players last October. Thought so. Still, sometimes we can project significant leaps in production by looking at advanced statistics for players who are poised to see an increase in minutes and/or usage this season. For instance, Notre Dame’s Bonzie Colson surprised many observers by becoming a First Team All-ACC member as a junior. But if you closely examine his sophomore campaign statistics — 122.0 Offensive Rating, 58.7 percent true shooting percentage — it’s easy to see why his contributions shot up with a corresponding increase in playing time. In the second of this two-part series, here’s our list of potential breakout sophomores in the ACC this season.

Sophomore Surges

1) V.J. King – Louisville: 13.5 MPG, 5.5 PPG, 111.3 ORtg, 55.0% true shooting.

V.J. King posted impressive shooting numbers as a rookie which should lead to a major leap in production as a sophomore at Louisville. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images North America)

One of many Cardinals with professional-level potential, King posted promising shooting numbers last season from three-point range (42.1%) and at the charity stripe (82.1%). His minutes should double this year and his usage rate (19.6%) figures to increase as well — all meaning that we may be looking at a 14-plus point per game scorer this season in Louisville.

2) Kyle Guy – Virginia: 18.6 MPG, 7.5 PPG, 114.8 ORtg, 49.5% 3FG.

The word is that Guy will perform without his signature man-bun this season, but don’t expect him to slow down without it. Given multiple losses from the Cavaliers’ perimeter attack, Guy should be head coach Tony Bennett’s top guard this year. Guy posted two extremely impressive statistics for a freshman guard — 49.5 percent three-point shooting, and a turnover rate of only 10.6 percent.

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Where 2017-18 Happens: Reason #13 We Love College Basketball

Posted by rtmsf on October 29th, 2017

As RTC heads into its 11th season covering college hoops, it’s time to begin releasing our annual compendium of YouTube clips that we like to call Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball. These 30 snippets from last season’s action are completely guaranteed to make you wish the games were starting tonight rather than 30 days from now. Over the next month you’ll get one reason per day until we reach the new season on Friday, November 10. You can find all of this year’s released posts here.

#13 – Where November Madness Happens.

We also encourage you to re-visit the entire archive of this feature from the 2008-092009-10, 2010-112011-122012-132013-142014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 preseasons.

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Chicago Basketball Needs Chris Collins

Posted by Chris Hatfield on October 27th, 2017

Chris Collins probably has traces of Lake Michigan running through his blood. I mean, it wouldn’t be suprising. After all, the Northwestern head coach, once a Bulls ballboy, is about as Chicago as it gets. He’s also one of college basketball’s hottest names. In my view, the Wildcats and he are a heavenly pair. It just feels like it needs to be this way. “We are working hard every day to make this a program Chicago can be proud of,” Collins told the Northwestern fan base in a promo that aired a few days after he was hired.

Chris Collins and Chicago Wear Each Other Very Well (USA Today Images)

The city must protect him. He must protect his commitment. The fate of the known universe depends on it. Maybe that’s a bit excessive, but man, it’s quite important. It was more apparent than ever last season. Collins delivered Evanston what it hadn’t had in 78 years, not even once — an NCAA Tournament appearance. He then took it a step further. He actually won a game by defeating Vanderbilt in the First Round. After that, his Wildcats came within a few plays of defeating eventual national runner-up, Gonzaga.

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Several Takeaways From ACC Operation Basketball

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on October 27th, 2017

We attended ACC Operation Basketball in Charlotte this week (links to the coaches’ and players’ press conferences can be found here). In addition to hearing from coaches and players from all 15 league schools, ACC commissioner John Swofford delivered his annual state of the league address. In this post we present some of the primary takeaways and interesting quotes we observed and heard over the course of the day. At the bottom of the post we also present the preseason award results as voted on by participating media.

LOOKING FOR SOLUTIONS TO COLLEGE BASKETBALL’S PROBLEMS

Wednesday in Charlotte, ACC Commissioner John Swofford discussed the conference’s role in addressing the current issues facing college basketball. (USA Today Images)

Swofford spent much of his 45-minute forum on Wednesday discussing the current state of college basketball in light of the recent FBI probe into the sport. The longtime commissioner has always been cautious and guarded with his words in public venues, and accordingly — instead of offering headline grabbing suggestions to fix the college game — he opted to take the position of gathering more information before taking a stance. Swofford correspondingly announced that the league is forming a five-member task force to be headed by former Virginia athletic director Craig Littlepage. The goal of the group will be to make recommendations to the recently formed NCAA commission, chaired by Condoleezza Rice, that is tasked with finding solutions to the myriad problems exposed by the federal investigation.

When asked for his personal opinion on two low-hanging fruits regarding immediate change, Swofford indicated that he would like to see the one-and-done rule disappear and would be interested in exploring something similar to the college baseball model that forces a decision on professional or collegiate tracks coming out of high school. Both proposals would do little to fix the problems facing college basketball right now — if the top 15 high school seniors went straight to the NBA, then the players ranked #16 through #30 would then become the prime targets for rogue shoe company representatives and agents. So, what’s the difference? As for considering the college baseball model, why don’t we instead worry about creating something that works specifically for college basketball? From the monumental amounts of money involved to the way the entire recruiting structure works, there’s very little in common between those two sports.

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Where 2017-18 Happens: Reason #16 We Love College Basketball

Posted by rtmsf on October 26th, 2017

As RTC heads into its 11th season covering college hoops, it’s time to begin releasing our annual compendium of YouTube clips that we like to call Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball. These 30 snippets from last season’s action are completely guaranteed to make you wish the games were starting tonight rather than 30 days from now. Over the next month you’ll get one reason per day until we reach the new season on Friday, November 10. You can find all of this year’s released posts here.

#16 – Where The Merry Tripster Happens.

We also encourage you to re-visit the entire archive of this feature from the 2008-092009-10, 2010-112011-122012-132013-142014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 preseasons.

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