Patrick Marshall of Bluejay Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley and Big 12 Conferences.
Current Records and my standings (Last Week):
Oklahoma (11-0) (1)
Baylor (9-1) (3)
Texas A&M (10-1) (5)
Texas (8-2) (2)
Missouri (9-1) (4)
Kansas (8-2) (6)
Texas Tech (8-3) (7)
Kansas St. (8-3) (8)
Oklahoma St. (8-3) (11)
Nebraska (7-2) (9)
Iowa St. (7-3) (10)
Colorado (5-3) (12)
Most teams only played one game this week. The holidays are a little slow for the Big 12 teams. However what is starting to show is that this conference is wide open and it will be a battle once conference play starts. Oklahoma looks a little above the rest, but not much.
TEAM OF THE WEEK
Texas A&M (3-0 this week)—Texas A&M is starting to make me a believer, winning 3 more games this week to move to 10-1. With some solid wins now over Arizona, Alabama, and an undefeated LSU team, this team is building itself quite a resume. Things are definitely going their way as they almost got themselves in a position to lose the LSU game, but a controversial call late in the game led to an LSU technical and A&M sealed the win. They should get a win over Sam Houston St. this week.
Patrick Marshall of Bluejay Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley and Big 12 Conferences.
Big 12 Conference Week in Review (Nov. 14-23)
Current Records and my standings:
Oklahoma (4-0)
Missouri (4-1)
Nebraska (3-0)
Kansas St. (4-0)
Baylor (3-0)
Texas (2-0)
Kansas (2-0)
Oklahoma St. (4-0)
Texas Tech (4-0)
Iowa St. (3-0)
Texas A&M (3-0)
Colorado (2-1)
TEAM OF THE WEEK
Oklahoma—Oklahoma has gotten off to a fast 4-0 start behind Blake Griffin and his supporting cast. They survived the Gardner-Webb bug that Kentucky suffered from last year. Griffin scored 35 points and pulled down 21 rebounds to lead Oklahoma to a win. Now they head to New York after holding off Stephen Curry and Davidson in their NIT regional. They get a somewhat favorable matchup against UAB instead of an expected Arizona team.
TEAMS DOING WELL
Nebraska—I actually like Nebraska just for the fact that they are one of the only Big 12 teams that already has a road game under their belt as they made the trip to TCU this week. Though they only had 21 free throws (most came towards the end) against TCU’s 38 free throws, Nebraska survived their first road test and will build some toughness as they continue a somewhat soft non-conference schedule. However, Nebraska won against Arkansas-Pine Bluff but according to Doc Sadler, the Huskers were “outworked.” Maybe next time after the morning shootaround you should keep the players there and let them prepare for the game instead of sending them home.
Missouri—Missouri started the season with a couple warmup games against Prairie View A&M and Chattanooga and then headed to San Juan, Puerto Rico, for a tournament – losing to Xavier, winning against Fairfield and getting a nice win against USC. The bench for Missouri is starting to feel a little comfortable. The Tigers’ high pressure defense caused 20 or more turnovers by their opponents the first three games of the season. Missouri gets a week off before hosting Summit Conference favorite Oral Roberts next Sunday.
Kansas St.-The Wildcats enjoyed a little cupcake city playing against a bad Florida A&M team, a troubled Southeast Missouri St. team and D2 Emporia State, but then took to the road to play against Horizon league favorite Cleveland St. and left with a win—their first true non-conference road win in nearly two years. Kansas St. is enjoying balanced scoring as they have six players averaging double figures in scoring.
Baylor—Baylor’s documented scoring machine has not disappointed as they are averaging almost 95 points a game. In addition to what they already had, Baylor got a new scoring threat in Quincy Acy. The freshman has yet to miss a shot, scoring 18 straight baskets over his 3-game career, breaking a Big 12 record. With an assist for every two baskets, that means the Bears are doing a good job of playing some team ball. They get a warm up with Jacksonville on Monday night before heading to Anaheim for the 76 Classic.
Texas—Texas, for being favored in the Big 12, has been relatively quiet to start the season. They won against Stetson and Tulane to open things up before heading to Maui for the ever popular Maui Invitational. AJ Abrams moving to point guard hasn’t affected his scoring too much as he leads Texas in scoring with 18 pts per game while expected point guard Dogus Balbay finally made his debut. Texas has also had the opportunity to build depth as they have 9 players playing more than 13 minutes a game so far.
Kansas—Kansas welcomed a whole new bunch of players to Allen Field House this week as they played their CBE Classic pod against in-state UMKC and Florida Gulf Coast. As expected, Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich are leading the way for the Jayhawks in scoring.
Oklahoma St.—The cowboys hosted Texas-San Antonio and North Texas as well as Tulsa and Grambling St. with relatively easy wins. The 3-point shot has almost been non-existent as they have been playing a lot of pick and roll basketball. Five players are averaging double figures in scoring per game. Okie St. will have a challenging week ahead as a part of the Old Spice Classic in Orlando.
Texas Tech—The basketball team must have taken some notes from the football team as far as high paced scoring goes as the Red Raiders scored 167 points and opened the record book against East Central Oklahoma. But what is even worse is that they did not have any defense either as they gave up 115 points themselves. You have to kind of feel for Tyree Graham as he played 18 minutes and couldn’t score while everyone else did and mostly in double figures. With that scoring explosion, through 4 games the Red Raiders are averaging 108 points a game. Wow.
TEAMS THAT ARE STRUGGLING
Iowa St.—The Cyclones hosted their own multi-team tournament including UC Davis, Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Loyola Marymount. They didn’t look that great, but with so many new players that is probably expected. However that opening three games was last weekend. After 9 days off, the Cyclones headed to Hawaii for what appears to be a vacation and one game, it will be interesting to see how that works for them before turning around and hosting the SWAC’s Mississippi Valley St.
Texas A&M—Texas A&M struggled with Southland favorite Stephen F. Austin sandwiched in between SWAC opponents Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Jackson St. The game with SFA was tight the whole game and everyone in College Station was holding their breath hoping their basketball team isn’t going to be as bad as their football team was this year. A&M may be undefeated, but at this point looks like smoke and mirrors so they are considered “struggling.”
Colorado—Colorado opened up against Arkansas-Pine Bluff with a great win and everyone in Boulder was tricked into thinking that they had a basketball team this season. Then they hosted Big Sky Conference dweller Montana St. and lost. Whoops. Well maybe that is a good thing for the Buffalos.
GAME OF THE WEEK
Oklahoma vs. Davidson, NIT Tip Off—Davidson and Stephen Curry gave Oklahoma all they wanted in one of the more exciting games of the season so far. The Griffin brothers combined for 41 points and 27 rebounds. Though Oklahoma led by as many as 21 in the game, Davidson crept back in and made it a game to the end. Great foul shooting led to a win for Oklahoma.
PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Blake Griffin, Oklahoma—As advertised, Blake was just a beast in Oklahoma’s 4 games they have already played. He is averaging 25 points and 20 rebounds a game. That is just ridiculous.
WEEK AHEAD AND GAMES TO WATCH
The Big 12 has played as advertised so far winning the games they are expected to win. This week will be the “Week of Tournaments” where several Big 12 teams will stop playing the cupcakes and play some real competition in the annually known neutral holiday tournaments:
11/24-11/25, Kansas @ CBE Classic (ESPN2 and ESPNU)—Kansas gets a bit of a home court advantage as they play Washington and either Syracuse or Florida at the Sprint Center in Kansas City.
11/24-11/26, Texas @ Maui Invitational (ESPN Family of Networks)—Texas starts off with St. Joseph’s, then either Notre Dame or Indiana and then possibly North Carolina.
11/26-11/28, Oklahoma @ NIT Tip Off (ESPN2)—Oklahoma gets a bit of surprise when they open up in New York against UAB and then will play either Boston College or Purdue.
11/27-11/30, Baylor @ 76 Classic (ESPN2 and ESPNU)—Baylor opens with Providence and new coach Keno Davis, then most likely Arizona St. and then probably St. Mary’s or Wake Forest.
11/27-11/30, Oklahoma St. @ Old Spice Classic (ESPN2 and ESPNU)—A stacked tournament where the Cowboys open with Gonzaga and then either Maryland or Michigan St. If they win both of those, then they could likely be playing either Tennessee or Georgetown.
11/28-11/29, Texas A&M @ South Padre Invitational (Fox College Sports Atlantic)—A&M plays Tulsa and then most likely Illinois.
11/28-11/29, Kansas St. @ Las Vegas Invitational (ESPNU and ESPN2)—Kansas St. plays a struggling Kentucky team and then either Iowa or West Virginia in the city that never sleeps.
11/28-11/29, Texas Tech @ Legends Classic (HDNET)—Texas Tech takes their new found high scoring offense into New Jersey hoping to beat Pittsburgh and then either Mississippi St. or Washington St.
11/29, Colorado @ Stanford (Fox Sports Net)—Two teams seeing if they can be considered a player this season.
11/29, Nebraska vs. Creighton (Fox Sports Midwest)—This in-state rivalry will heat up once again and I will actually be there to see it in person.
Patrick Marshall of Bluejay Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley and Big 12 Conferences.
Predicted Order of Finish:
Texas (27-3, 14-2)
Kansas (24-7, 14-2)
Oklahoma (27-5, 13-3)
Baylor (25-5, 12-4)
Oklahoma St. (19-11, 8-8)
Texas A&M (19-12, 7-9)
Nebraska (18-11, 7-9)
Missouri (18-13, 6-10)
Kansas St. (18-13, 6-10)
Iowa St. (16-16, 3-13)
Texas Tech (15-16, 3-13)
Colorado (14-16, 3-13)
What You Need to Know. Although Kansas won the National Championship last season in dramatic fashion, most of the team won’t be around to try to do the repeat shuffle like Florida did the previous two seasons. However, that doesn’t mean the Big 12 Conference won’t have an exciting season in the wings. The buzz around the Big 12 is that sophomore Blake Griffin from Oklahoma (who passed on the NBA, unlike is KU peers) decided to stay another year at Oklahoma to try to lead his team to a championship. Griffin has already been mentioned for several preseason All-American teams and awards. Texas returns a great nucleus of talent on a team that tied for the conference championship last year with Kansas. Baylor is the biggest surprise coming into the season. Head Coach Scott Drew has brought this disgraced program back from the ashes a few years ago when Patrick Dennehy was murdered by teammate Carlton Dotson and information was later covered up by then head coach Dave Bliss. Baylor made the NCAA Tournament last season for the first time in twenty years. Iowa State and Texas A&M are led by former Missouri Valley Conference coaches, Greg McDermott and Mark Turgeon, respectively. Although Kansas State made a splash back into the national spotlight showcasing Michael Beasley and Bill Walker, they’ll now take a step back into the pack, but with the salaries of their coaches including their assistants, they should be held to high expectations. Nebraska will be playing small ball this year as they do not have a player over 6’8, but it isn’t like they haven’t tried. Missouri is still trying to find its identity and coach Mike Anderson hopes to finally play his type of up-tempo, high pressure defense. Although only in his third year at the helm, Anderson is on the hot seat. Colorado has a lot to build on with mostly freshman and sophomores. Texas Tech got a little head start when legendary coach Bobby Knight passed the keys to his son Pat Knight at the end of last season, while first year coach Travis Ford restarts the Oklahoma State program after the Sutton family was ousted.
Predicted Champion.Texas (NCAA #1). Although Texas hoped DJ Augustin wouldn’t leave Austin for the NBA, he did. The Horns return four of five starters, though, (AJ Abrams, Conner Atchley, Damion James and Justin Mason) and most of the team that made it last season to the Elite Eight. AJ Abrams can hit a shot quickly and from anywhere. He is the top returning scorer in the Big 12 (16.5 ppg). Without Augustin, Texas will be relying on Dogus Balbay to run the point. Unfortunately, Balbay is returning from an injury and played on a Turkish club team with players who received money. However, Abrams is also an option at point guard and feels confident that he can run the team. The frontcourt is solid with veterans James (12/10 last season) and Atchley. Height doesn’t always equal playing ability, but when you have four players on the roster that are over 6’10” (Atchley, Clint Chapman, Dexter Pittman and Matt Hill) they have the ability to be physical underneath. The thing that sets Texas apart from the other Big 12 teams is their NCAA Tournament and coaching experience compared to the other contenders. I expect Texas to take it a step further this year and make a Final Four appearance.
NCAA Tournament Teams.
Kansas (NCAA #4). Some might think that I am crazy for predicting Kansas to finish second in the Big 12 this season with only 2 players coming back with significant playing time (Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich). Kansas will have seven newcomers to the program and some will be expected to be big players right away including juco All-American Mario Little, freshman twins Markieff and Marcus Morris and freshman guard Tyshawn Taylor. Expect that there will be some growing pains. However, Kansas is a beneficiary in scheduling, not only during the non-conference season, but in the Big 12 schedule as well. The Jayhawks are participating in the CBE Classic that has them playing preliminary games at home and the semis/finals in Kansas City which is also basically at home. Then in Big 12 play, they play the North schedule which means that they’ll play at Baylor and at Oklahoma only once, play Texas in Lawrence, while those three South teams have to play each other twice. Playing at Allen Fieldhouse is not an easy task which makes their schedule amenable to success. The Jayhawks will lose some early non-conference games and probably games they should not, but will be solid come conference and post-season time. The main cogs of the team that won the National Championship last year played together as freshmen and struggled early, but turned out to be one of the big stories as the season went along. Similarly to that group, this season I see KU only getting past the first round of the NCAAs.
Oklahoma(NCAA #5). The media has picked Oklahoma to win the conference, Blake Griffin to be POY and Willie Warren to be the ROY. Warren was the leading scorer in the McDonalds All-American game and can seriously dunk. If you want to see some of the talent Warren has to offer, check out this dunk. Along with Griffin and talented freshman Warren, the rest of the team will be full of role players. With so much of the focus on Griffin and Warren, that means that several other players need to step up their play to give Oklahoma additional options along with those two gifted players. One of those players that might make an impact is 6’9” UCLA transfer Ryan Wright. Jeff Capel is a capable coach, but his 3rd year in the conference will keep them from winning the conference. However, expectations are high and I expect Oklahoma to reach the Sweet 16.
Baylor (NCAA #6). Baylor is a team that returns its top eight scorers from last season led by Curtis Jerrells (15.3 ppg). They were the Big 12’s highest scoring team and who could forget the epic non-televised 5 OT game with Texas A&M last season. Kevin Rogers, LaceDarius Dunn and Henry Dugat are scoring machines that provide a depth of experience. A senior-laden team, Scott Drew has built this team from scratch and is creating dividends by making he NCAA Tournament for the first time in two decades. But Baylor will not win the conference because their defense is suspect and their frontcourt will need to improve. However, they tasted the feeling of the NCAA Tournament and got knocked out right away, but it will be different this year and I expect that they will make the Tourney again and at least win one game.
Oklahoma St. (NCAA #7). The Cowboys still have enough in the cupboard to make it to the NCAA Tournament even though they will break in first-year coach Travis Ford. They are a little thin on the inside but return their leading scorer, James Anderson, and 80% of their scoring. Having an up-tempo style that Ford likes to run will help minimize the frontcourt deficiencies. They should do well enough to make it to the NCAAs, but will probably be bounced in the first round.
Texas A&M (NCAA #9).Mark Turgeon in his 2nd year will be able to make one more run with the players that Billy Gillispie left behind before heading to Kentucky. It remains to be seen if Turgeon will be able to recruit the right players to fit into playing in the Big 12. Coming from the Valley, it is a big transition to try recruiting the right players for the large conference schools (note: Bruce Weber (Illinois), Matt Painter (Purdue), Greg McDermott (Iowa St.)). Though I see A&M sneaking into the NCAAs, this team could very well find itself in the NIT next March.
Nebraska (NCAA #12). Nebraska will be playing small ball this year and more in the up-tempo style that Doc Sadler would like to play, but the lack of an inside presence and a weak non-conference schedule will put them squarely on the bubble of the NCAA tournament. This team could realistically have only one loss coming into conference play. It has everyone coming back except for Aleks Maric who was their productive center, but even the newcomers were around the team and know the system as four players redshirted last season. Having the confidence-building games will bring Nebraska into conference play on a high and they’ll benefit by playing in the North division, but they will struggle when they have a stretch of four games against South teams and Kansas. However, the Huskers will surprise some people this year, finish 7th in the conference and sneak into the NCAAs as one of the last at-large bids.
NIT Teams.
Missouri (NIT). The pieces appear to be in place in Columbia for the Missouri Tigers to start making some strides to return to the spotlight again but the depth is not there to run a full court, high pressure defense for Mike Anderson’s system to be completely successful. They will have some success early in the season, but they will be tired by the time they get to conference play and will fall off from the picture. They will be the last team into the NIT.
Kansas St. (NIT/CBI). Michael Beasley and Bill Walker are not there anymore so this team will have some significant challenges to replace those players. They have a somewhat soft non-conference schedule except for the Las Vegas Invitational which will build up their win total, but will fall short in the Big 12 race to be considered for the NCAAs. If they do not do well enough for the NIT, they will be in the CBI for the postseason.
Others.
Iowa St.Greg McDermott is still getting his feet wet in his 3rd year as the roster has had a total turnover in the past two seasons (seven new players last year and another six this year). Like Turgeon, it is hard to tell if he’s getting the right recruits to compete in the Big 12.
Texas Tech. Although Pat Knight received the keys to the team mid-season last year, this team will struggle as they try to find their identity and whether they decide to implement a whole new scheme or keep with what Bobby Knight established and the players that were recruited for his scheme.
Colorado.Jeff Bzdelik is in year two of a total rebuild of this team, as eight players have left the team since Bzdelik arrived in Boulder in 2007. They will probably start several freshman who will be overwhelmed. Their offense is yet to be established as they try to run clock to keep the score in the 50s. There are too many things going against the Buffs from being a factor this year.
Important Games. The Big 12 has a great advantage in that they are key players in several major exempt tournaments this year that they can make a splash in:
Texas—Maui Invitiational
Oklahoma—Preseason NIT
Baylor—Anaheim 76 Classic
Kansas—CBE Classic
Oklahoma St—Old Spice Classic
Kansas St.—Las Vegas Invitational
Colorado (Rainbow Classic)
Missouri (Puerto Rico Tipoff)
Texas Tech (Legends Classic)
Texas A&M (South Padre)
Also some great non-conference matchups as a part of the PAC-10/Big 12 Challenge:
Oklahoma vs. USC (12.04.08)
Texas vs. UCLA (12.04.08)
Kansas @ Arizona (12.23.08)
It is always a chore to get a large conference school to go on the road to play on a smaller team’s home court, but here are the road tests the Big 12 is taking on this year (not neutral site):
Nebraska @ TCU (11.19.08)
Kansas St. @ Cleveland St. (11.22.08)
Iowa St. @ Northern Iowa (12.03.08)
Texas Tech @ Lamar (12.13.08)
Oklahoma St. @ Texas A&M-CC (12.14.08)
Texas Tech @ UTEP (12.17.08)
Iowa St. @ Houston (12.18.08)
Oklahoma @ Rice (12.22.08)
Texas A&M @ Rice (12.31.08)
Colorado @ SMU (01.05.09)
Conference Key Games. These games will decide the conference champ:
Texas @ Oklahoma (01.12.09)
Baylor @ Oklahoma (01.24.09)
Texas @ Baylor (01.27.09)
Kansas @ Baylor (02.02.09)
Oklahoma @ Baylor (02.11.09)
Oklahoma @ Texas (02.21.09)
Kansas @ Oklahoma (02.23.09)
Baylor @ Texas (03.02.09)
Texas @ Kansas (03.07.09)
Neat-O Stats.
4-The number of 20-win seasons in Baylor’s 102-year history.
5-Texas is one of just one of five schools to advance to the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament in four of the last six years (Duke, UConn, Kansas, Pitt)
51-4—This is Kansas’ record in the last 55 games dating back to 2006-07 when Kansas lost to UCLA in the Elite Eight. Their only losses since then leading up to their NCAA Championship last year were to Texas, Kansas St. and Oklahoma St. last season.
65 Team Era. The teams in this conference are a combined 268-222 in the NCAA Tournament with 35 Final Four appearances and five National Championships. As the Big 12 conference, their first National Championship was with Kansas last season (the others were as the Big 8, which merged into the Big 12 in 1996-97). The conference’s record in this era is 161-112 (.590), which puts it roughly on par with the SEC as a major conference. Where the league has struggled (until last year, of course) was winning national titles. Only KU in 1998 and 2008 have won championships during this era.
Final Thoughts. The Big 12 will be a top heavy league this year and in some minds might be down compared to years past. It will have four strong teams that will easily make the NCAA tournament and then there is a log jam between 5-9 on who will step up to either make the NCAA or settle for the NIT for the post season. It will be interesting to see if Texas will finally outlive the hype that is given to them each year to make it to the Final Four and be in line to play for the National Championship. Oklahoma is poised to make a run, but if Griffin gets hurt, will they still be able to win games? It will be interesting to see how Kansas does after winning the championship the year before but losing so much to not be considered able to repeat. With 10 of the 12 teams in the conference participating in high profile early season tournaments, the Big 12’s season will be defined on how those teams do in those tournaments. If they are successful, then they will be the talk of this basketball season. If they fail miserably, expect them to get fewer teams into the Big Dance than they have the last few years.
Patrick Marshall of Bluejay Basketball is the RTC Big 12 correspondent and an occasional contributor.
In the storied not so storied history of Nebraska basketball established in 1897, the program has never won an NCAA Tournament game.However, Nebraska coach Doc Sadler is doing almost anything he can to get players that might get them the opportunity, and it appears his tactics might be pushing closer and closer to a recruiting violation.
What’s Up, Doc?
The latest case is Jorge Diaz, a 7 foot prospect that played most recently on the Puerto Rico Junior National team.Diaz is still an oral commitment to Nebraska, but he has not been enrolled in school and did not sign a letter of intent.Apparently he has been cleared by the NCAA Clearinghouse, but has not been able to enroll at Nebraska because he hasn’t met their enrollment standards. The thing holding things up is a checkmark in his application to Nebraska about English not being his first language and he didn’t take a required test to verify he was proficient in English.But as this gets more and more involved and school officials have started commenting on things, it gets about as close as it can to a recruiting violation. Check this timeline:
August 29 – the Omaha World Herald Newspaper has been aggressively printing stories on the recruitment of this player.They start out by mentioning that Diaz’s enrollment was held up because of his English proficiency and point out that “Husker coaches can’t comment on Diaz until he is enrolled.” He had until Tuesday, 9/2 to enroll at Nebraska
September 3 – The next day after the deadline, the Omaha World Herald published another article updating the Diaz situation, stating that he is still not enrolled at Nebraska yet but printed that AD Tom Osborne and Coach Doc Sadler said that they are “still actively recruiting Diaz.”
September 4 – the paper published even another article on the Diaz situation saying that Nebraska is re-recruiting Diaz since he was not able to enroll for this semester and the earliest he could enroll now at Nebraska would be after the first semester. However, the paper quotes Coach Sadler that he is “aggressively” trying to re-recruit the center and is also quoted, “Hopefully, Jorge will get what he has to get done to be admitted to school.”Tom Shatel from the OWH also wrote an editorial published that day on the Diaz situation.
The Lincoln Journal Star at the time had very few updates and articles on the Diaz situation, but it was mostly because they had their 360 degree football helmet on.However the articles in the LJS didn’t have the same quotes that were published by the Omaha World Herald. Couldn’t all of these public quotes about a recruit not yet enrolled in school potentially be a recruiting violation?
The status on Diaz—still an oral commit and might be able to enroll at Nebraska in December.However, Kentucky, Arkansas and other schools are knocking on his door.
This is the latest fiasco in Nebraska basketball recruiting, but let’s look at the rest of the situations that have occurred just in this year’s recruiting:
Roburt Sallie—Roburt was originally recruited in 2006, but could not academically qualify to play for Nebraska, so instead went to juco and this year was re-recruited and committed to Nebraska.However, little did anyone know that in 2006, Roburt enrolled at Nebraska and was in class for a week.Unfortunately, Big 12 rule 6.2, which says that any student-athlete who enrolls at a conference institution, part or full time, must meet initial NCAA eligibility requirements. Sallie had not met those requirements when he was enrolled as a part-time student in August 2006.Whoops.Looks like someone dropped the ball there and Roburt was deemed ineligible to play for the Huskers.Roburt is now with Memphis.What a reward for John Calipari.He seems to get all the luck
Christopher Niemann–Niemann, a 6-11 center and the other original from the 2-man recruiting class with Roburt Sallie is scheduled to arrive from Germany. He has been declared ineligible by the NCAA for his freshman season but can participate in practices. He’ll have three years of eligibility remaining beginning in 2009-10.Christopher participated on a German club team that had some professionals on its roster, even though he accepted no pay. The same thing happened last season to players from Iowa State and Washington State who were former teammates of Niemann.Slingblade for some reason thought he was going to get to play right away this season, but the history of Niemann’s teammates from last year should have said something.
Teeng Akol—Teeng was supposed to make a visit to Nebraska and said, “I think I can help them.I’m not familiar with everything, but I know they’re in the Big 12.”He originally signed with South Florida over West Virginia, Oklahoma, Xavier, Southern Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky.Akol signed scholarship papers in June with South Florida. However, USF officials suddenly asked Akol to leave the school because of academic reasons, despite the fact he’d already been admitted and was taking summer classes.So it sounded like the Huskers were going to get a steal.However, Teeng visited Oklahoma State first andnever looked back.He didn’t even make his visit to Nebraska.
Eshaunte Jones—Eshaunte actually did get signed and sealed by Doc Sadler for this season.However he comes with baggage as well.He originally committed to Indiana in the fall of 2006. He instead went to Hargrave Military Academy in Virginia, where he played last season. He then signed with Oregon State but was released from his letter of intent when the school changed coaches.Boy the paperwork that must have been done on that one.
Brandon Ubel—Brandon, from Overland Park, KS seems like the only normal one in the bunch accepting a scholarship offer for 2009-10, but of course it is still an oral commitment until later this fall when early signing occurs.
The loser in this whole situation—Paul Velander.The walk-on that has played significant minutes for Nebraska the past two seasons was originally slated to get the scholarship vacated when Roburt Sallie found out he couldn’t come to Nebraska, but even as the Diaz fiasco continues, poor Paul still doesn’t get a scholarship.
Ron Wellman’s decision to elevate Dino Gaudio to the head coaching position at Wake Forest has been universally lauded by the hoopsnascenti over the last couple of days as a great hire. Nobody will dispute that this decision makes sense in terms of continuity for the program, the players and the university. But if you’ll indulge our playing of devil’s advocate for a moment, we ask the question – is this a good hire from a basketball standpoint?
This is a significantly tougher question to address, largely because Gaudio will be evaluated on games yet unplayed. We can point to his unimpressive records at Army and Loyola as evidence of coaching mediocrity; or, we can just as easily dismiss those situations as tantamount to coaching graveyards, where only the truly special of the business can succeed.
So we thought it could be interesting to see how elevating an assistant from within a program tends to work out, historically speaking. We took a look at all the mid- and high-major programs the last three offseasons (2004-06) that elevated an assistant from within its shop to the head coaching position. FYI – there have been six such examples in 2007 – Butler (Brad Stevens), Frank Martin (Kansas St.), Randy Peele (Winthrop), Jeff Reynolds (Air Force), Bob Nash (Hawaii), and Dino Gaudio (Wake Forest).
In 2004, there were four such instances. Three of those new head coaches have gone on to great success at their programs, and the fourth had a solid first year at his before moving on up the ladder the following offseason.
Mark Fox – Nevada (following Trent Johnson) : rode Nick Fazekas to an 81-18 record the next three seasons, including two NCAA second round appearances. Contrastingly, his predecessor Johnson has largely struggled over on The Farm.
Doc Sadler – UTEP (following Billy Gillispie) : Sadler continued the Texas Western renaissance for two seasons there, going 48-18 with one NCAA and one NIT appearance.
Sean Miller – Xavier (following Thad Matta) : Xavier has continued to flourish under Miller, going 63-32 with two NCAA appearances, including the can you top this game vs. Ohio St. in the second round of 2007 that XU should have won.
Chris Mooney – Air Force (following Joe Scott) : in his only season at AF, he was 18-12 (a slight drop from 22-7 the year prior) before taking a new job at Richmond.
Can Mark Fox continue his Reno Magic w/o Fazekas?
In 2005, there were only two instances. Here too both could be fairly qualified as successful transitions.
Dave Rose – BYU (following Steve Cleveland) : in two seasons, Rose has taken the Cougs to one NCAA appearance and one NIT appearance, going 45-18 over that period.
Andy Kennedy – Cincinnati (following Bob Huggins) : Kennedy enjoyed a 21-13 season in his only at the helm after Thuggins was fired, but what’s most telling is the utter collapse in the season after Kennedy was released by UC. The Bearcats were an atrocious 11-19 overall and dead last in the Big East (2-14) in 2006-07. Great decision there.
Last offseason there were four instances, and in a weird coincidence, two of those assistants were coach’s sons who had been formally groomed to take over the program. In one case, the new coach far exceeded his predecessor; in the others, it was largely status quo.
Sean Sutton – Oklahoma St. (following Eddie Sutton) : Sean’s first year at the helm for the Pokes was up-and-down. OSU started strong, winning 16 of its first 17 games, but limped into the finish with an overall record of 22-13 (6-10) and losing in the first round of the NIT at home. This was still an improvement over his dad’s final season (17-16) (6-10), however.
Tony Bennett – Washington St. (following Dick Bennett) : this was the feel-good story of the year, as son Tony updated his dad’s offense and took the Pac-10 and nation by surprise, going 26-8 (13-5) – a fifteen win improvement – and making the program’s first NCAA tournament since 1994.
Ben Jacobson – Northern Iowa (following Greg McDermott) : this very solid mid-major program had its first non-NCAA appearance in four years during Jacobson’s first season at the helm, as his team sputtered to a pedestrian 18-13 campaign in the very competitive MVC.
Fred Hill – Rutgers (following Gary Waters) : Hill’s first season is one he’d like to forget, we’re sure. The Scarlet Knights were 10-19 (3-13) and battled with Cincinnati for the distinction as worst team in the Big East all season long. Waters’ final season ended at 19-10, which was a cause for celebration with Rutgers basketball.
Tony Bennett is the Model for Gaudio
Obviously, it’s tough to draw a persuasive conclusion from this sample size, and we also realize that every situation involves different factors. Nevertheless, we find it striking that in seven of the ten instances above, the assistant coach who was elevated either outperformed his predecessor or kept the program at the level of success it already enjoyed (or not enjoyed, as with Oklahoma St.). In two cases, there was a slight dropoff from previous levels, and in only one case of a single season sample there was a significant decrease.
The problem with analyzing Gaudio’s situation at Wake in this light is that status quo means that he’ll be regularly finishing in the cellar of the ACC. With the recruits he has arriving one year from now, he’ll be expected to significantly outperform what Prosser accomplished during the last two seasons. Put another way, Deacon faithful will be satisfied with nothing less than challenging for the ACC title and annual NCAA appearances – much like the first four years of Prosser’s tenure. This is a high bar, but if the recent history of Gaudio’s peers is any indication, he may have a great shot at clearing it.
