A week ago on the Eye on College Basketball Podcast, hosts Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander started a benign dialogue aiming to contextualize the greatness of Virginia head coach Tony Bennett. It began with the duo opining on how many games Bennett would be able to win against the Cavaliers’ 2019-20 schedule with a top-10 level Division II roster, and evolved into a more interesting and reasonable hypothetical — how high would Bennett finish with the roster that Danny Manning has at Wake Forest? Neither was willing to pick a Bennett-coached Demon Deacons’ squad lower than sixth, with Norlander capitulating that he could envision a scenario yielding a team that could crack the league’s top four. Such is now the universal adulation of Bennett’s prowess that none of the proclamations of his greatness, in this context or others, feels hyperbolic.

A year ago at this time, despite the fresh wounds of the ignominy of being the first #1 seed to ever lose an NCAA Tournament game to a #16 seed, Bennett was still thought of as one of the games’ premier coaches. The questions remained, fairly or not, however, whether his style could yield a National Championship, a question ultimately put to bed forever last April. With all the subsequent roster turnover (Virginia lost its top three scorers, all three with eligibility remaining), it was fair to expect the Cavaliers to retreat substantially this year — but early returns suggest otherwise.

Boston College Burning Question: Will the second consecutive early departure sabotage another campaign before it even begins?

Despite what has amounted to a lost decade of hoops in Chestnut Hill, Jim Christian’s charges had a slight glimmer of hope when the 2017-18 season came to a close. Seven league wins, the most since 2013, and an NIT appearance, the first postseason of any kind since the same year, had Boston College excited for a breakthrough last season. However, when half of one of the league’s preeminent backcourts vaulted to the NBA (Jerome Robinson) and the other (Ky Bowman) opted to eschew his final year of eligibility a year later, the Eagles seem destined for yet another year of irrelevance, cemented at the bottom of the ACC standings.

To add injury to insult, the player most equipped to fill the dynamic shoes of Bowman, rising sophomore Wynston Tabbs, will miss the entire year after September knee surgery. Much will therefore fall on the shoulders of former five-star recruit Derryck Thornton, now at his third collegiate stop, and senior Nik Popovic, the team’s leading returning scorer and second-leading rebounder. Expectations are bleak, as Boston College is the only ACC school outside of the KenPom preseason top 100, and if that plays itself out on the floor, it seems unlikely that Christian will be back to steward the Eagles for a seventh season.

Pittsburgh Burning Question: Will Jeff Capel’s progress continue?

We’re just over a week into the season and the ACC has suffered a total of five losses. Two of those defeats came from teams that were expected to struggle, two others were from teams that were hoping to be on the fringe of the NCAA Tournament, and one came from a potential contender. RTC ACC writer Mick McDonald (@themickmcdonald) breaks each of those early losses down. (All rankings via KenPom as of November 15.)

Syracuse Struggled Against Old Enemy UConn Last Night (USA Today Images)

• #96 Connecticut 83, #7 Syracuse 76. As the old saying goes, throw out the KenPom rankings when two old rivals get together. Syracuse had to scratch and claw to make the NCAA Tournament last year despite an elite defense because the Orange simply couldn’t score (135th nationally). Last night against Connecticut in Madison Square Garden, they were up to their old tricks again. The Orange shot just 39.4 percent from the field and made just six threes while allowing Connecticut to nail 12-of-21 from three-point range. Most teams won’t shoot nearly that well against Syracuse’s length this year, but its lack of consistent offense leaves the Orange vulnerable when a team gets hot.
• #259 IUPUI 76, #90 Boston College 69. Whatever dreams Boston College had at making a run at an at-large bid this year may already be over with its bad loss earlier this week to IUPUI. Jim Christian’s team simply isn’t making enough shots, hitting only 29.5 percent of its three-pointers so far this season and getting limited production from its frontcourt of Steffon Mitchell (46.4% eFG) and Nik Popovic (47.4% eFG). Most importantly, Boston College needs to find some depth — through only three games, the Eagles’ five starters are averaging at least 28 minutes per contest. Freshman Jairus Hamilton is playing just over 18 minutes per game off the bench. Nobody else is seeing more than five minutes per contest. If Christian can’t find anyone else he trusts to give the occasional spell to Ky Bowman and Jordan Chatman, Boston College is in major trouble in the ACC.

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Rush the Court’s ACC microsite writers Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk), Matt Auerbach (@mauerbach24) and Mick McDonald (@themickmcdonald) recently got together to chat about the upcoming 2018-19 season and share their thoughts on all 15 ACC schools. Here’s Part 1 of that conversation.

Danny Manning needs his young stars to come through for Wake Forest to move up the ACC standings. (Walt Unks/Winston-Salem Journal)

• Brad Jenkins: Happy New Year, gentlemen! Let’s start with a look at the projected bottom of the league. Matt, you did our preview piece on Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. Can any of these teams surprise us and contend for an NCAA bid like the Yellow Jackets did two years ago?
• Matt Auerbach: Great to be back, guys! The short answer to that, Brad, is no. I just can’t see it. The best-case scenario for the first two, particularly Pittsburgh, is that they are competitive and playing a more exciting brand of basketball than they have the last two years. Jeff Capel was a home run hire that will ultimately steer the Panthers back to relevance. Josh Pastner built up some equity with his run to the NIT finals two years ago, but there doesn’t seem to be much to be excited about in Atlanta. As for Wake, if Jaylen Hoard could have a Trae Young or Deandre Ayton type of impact, sure. While extremely talented, I think the odds of that occurring, however, are near nil, and the pressure will be mounting on Danny Manning if another disappointing season ensues.
• Mick McDonald: Great point on Capel, Matt. Pitt basketball at least feels interesting again. They’ll be bad this year but I’ll be interested to see how guys like Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens begin their careers. I think they may actually be better than Georgia Tech. Pastner’s team looks rough.
• Matt Auerbach: Without a doubt, of the three, I’d be least surprised if Pittsburgh won four or five games.
• Mick McDonald: I know Manning keeps pulling good recruits but it feels like he needs to have a team make some noise sometime soon.
• Brad Jenkins: I think there’s a chance for Capel to do something like what Pastner did in his first year in Atlanta based on the new energy he has in the Pitt program, but the ACC schedule rotation did him no favors — they have zero home games against the predicted bottom four in the league. Is Manning the ACC coach on the Hot Seat this year?
• Mick McDonald: I guess, but given how his recruiting is going, I’d bet Manning gets at least one more year.

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As we head into another exciting ACC season that tips off in just under two weeks, we will be reviewing the key question for each of the league’s 15 squads. Today Matt Auerbach (@mauerbach24) begins at the bottom of the conference, with Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. 

Pittsburgh Burning Question: Can Jeff Capel reignite the Oakland Zoo?

Jeff Capel Takes Over a Pittsburgh Program in Need of a Refresh (USA Today Images)

While the recently dismissed Kevin Stallings is an easy mark, the lazy conclusion is to heap blame upon his shoulders for the moribund state Pittsburgh basketball is in. Sure, Stallings’ 4-32 ACC record (including the first winless conference season in school history) rationalizes fan apathy, but a deeper look reveals that the rapid downward spiral tracks all the way to the top. The school’s decision to end its longtime affiliation with the Big East for football reasons has had a significant negative effect on what had been a stellar basketball program. In Pittsburgh’s last 12 seasons as a member of the Big East, the Panthers entered the AP top 10 in 11 of those campaigns. Their conference affiliation switch ultimately cost the very successful Jamie Dixon his job, leaving Pittsburgh basketball at a crossroads.

Enter Jeff Capel, Mike Krzyzewski’s top lieutenant and former Oklahoma head coach, to clean up the mess and re-energize the fan base. Capel’s first job was to shore up the roster and he did so in earnest — convincing eight of the 11 possible returnees to remain on campus and bolstering them with a four-man freshman class highlighted by top-100 prospect Trey McGowens. Jared Wilson-Frame is the most accomplished of the upperclassmen, a solid scorer (13 PPG) for a team that Capel promises will play faster than 338th nationally in tempo. Will Capel’s arrival along with a promise of a more appealing brand of basketball allow for a re-emergence of the Oakland Zoo — even if the Panthers still aren’t very good? Stay tuned on that question.

Georgia Tech Burning Question: Is there any juice down in Atlanta?

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This season may have just wrapped up, but we are always looking forward to next season. Here’s a much too early look at how the ACC may shake out in 2018-19.

The Four Kill4s Arrive in Durham With Much Fanfare

1. Duke. We’ll see if Gary Trent returns, but either way, it’s another loaded freshman class that will make the Blue Devils the most talented team in college basketball. RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish and Zion Williamson are the top three players in the class of 2018 and will be joined by the top-rated point guard, Tre Jones.
2. Virginia. The Cavaliers lose Devon Hall and Isaiah Wilkins but return their starting backcourt of Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy, plus ACC Sixth Man of the Year De’Andre Hunter. Look for Mamadi Diakite to continue a long line of athletic bigs who flourish in Tony Bennett’s system.
3. North Carolina. Joel Berry and Theo Pinson are gone, but the Tar Heels return Luke Maye in addition to Cameron Johnson and Kenny Williams. Roy Williams is also bringing in his best recruiting class in years, with point guard Coby White and wing Nassir Little set to arrive. The improvement of sophomore big men Garrison Brooks, Sterling Manley and Brandon Huffman will be important to watch.
4. Virginia Tech. Buzz Williams loses just Justin Bibbs and Devon Wilson from this year’s squad, and he will return a senior-laden backcourt with Ahmed Hill and potential All-ACC player Justin Robinson. Chris Clarke and Kerry Blackshear, Jr. are versatile bigs who can hit shots from the outside. Last year’s freshmen class also has the potential to break out, especially Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Read the rest of this entry »

As you get set for the holidays, don’t miss a few must-watch ACC games before Santa comes down the chimney. (All ratings are via KenPom and statistics are through the games of December 21)

Friday, December 22

Syracuse Needs Quality Wins (USA Today Images)

• St. Bonaventure (#60) at Syracuse (#52). This is an important game as Syracuse works to put together its NCAA Tournament resume. Normally non-conference wins over former rivals Georgetown and Connecticut would sparkle, but the Hoyas and Huskies are both down this year. Currently all Syracuse has to its credit is a win over Maryland. The Bonnies feature a wonderful backcourt of Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley, but, as usual, Syracuse should have a significant advantage up front. Freshman power forward Oshae Brissett has put together a three-game stretch where he has averaged 23.3 points and 9.0 rebounds per game.
• Miami (#14) at Hawaii (#211). The Hurricanes are off to the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii this weekend, where they’ll play three games on a Friday/Saturday/Monday schedule. The original hope with this trip five time zones away was to gain a few more chances at quality wins to counterbalance a light non-conference schedule. Instead, Miami will get a true road game against a sub-200 team (Hawaii), followed by a match-up with either Davidson (#83) or New Mexico State (#92). A potential match-up with USC in Christmas Day’s title game has also lost its luster given the Trojans’ recent struggles. Scheduling woes aside, we continue to be impressed by the play of Hurricanes’ sophomore center Dewan Huell. The big man has started to figure it out, putting up a 123.3 Offensive Rating and 28.5 PER to this point in the season. His game is by no means a finished product (an 11.3% defensive rebounding rate and a 15.1% turnover rate are issues), but he has at least become the big man that Jim Larranaga desperately needed coming into this season.

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What’s on the Christmas wish list for each coach in the ACC this holiday season? Let’s take a look.

Jim Christian May Have Already Gotten His Gift With a Win Over Duke (USA Today Images)

• Jim Christian (Boston College): A healthy Deontae Hawkins. The Eagles pulled off a surprising upset of Duke thanks to red-hot three-point shooting, but they won’t be able to sustain it without some help on the interior. Hawkins was averaging 12.4 points and 9.1 rebounds per game before suffering a season-ending knee injury on November 29 at Nebraska. Sadly, Santa can’t fix knee tendons.
• Brad Brownell (Clemson): Some luck in close ACC games. The Tigers appear poised to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since Brownell’s first season, but they will need to avoid being snake-bitten like last year’s team that lost nine ACC games by six points or fewer.
• Mike Krzyzewski (Duke): Trevon Duval’s jumper to improve. Teams like Boston College are leaving the freshman point guard open for jumpers in favor of helping on Marvin Bagley III, and Duval is falling into the trap, making just 5-of-33 three-pointers on the season.
• Leonard Hamilton (Florida State): Somebody makes a free throw. The Seminoles shoot 65.8 percent from the line (295th nationally) and M.J. Walker (13-of-16) is the only regular making over 78 percent this season.

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1. It could be argued that Brian Bowen will go down as the most significant recruit in Louisville basketball history (FBI investigation, NCAA sanctions, and Pitino/Jurich being fired) even though he will never play for the school according to a statement that the school released last week. Bowen, a top-20 recruit who is widely believed to be the player who the FBI says received $100,000, has reportedly enrolled in classes for the spring semester at Louisville, which has allowed him to remain on scholarship. We are assuming that this is a way to maintain his academic eligibility given his stated intent to transfer, but the idea of him transferring to play at another school seems ridiculous as we cannot imagine another NCAA school agreeing to take him with both a NCAA investigation and FBI investigation hanging over him.
2. When did Vanderbilt become a destination for five-star recruits? Maybe it’s Nashville because it certainly isn’t the program’s history or its elevated court that is drawing in top-notch recruits. Whatever the case, Vanderbilt received its second commitment from a five-star prospect in two weeks as Simi Shittu, a 6’9″ power forward from Vermont, committed to play for Vanderbilt. Shittu follows Darius Garland, a 6’1″ point guard from Tennessee, as the first top-25 recruits the school has had since 2009. We aren’t sure what Bryce Drew is getting these recruits to come play for him at Vanderbilt, but they should make the SEC even more interesting next season.
3. Some coaching extensions confuse us primarily because of the timing, but we cannot think of any that were as baffling as Wake Forest giving Danny Manning a six-year extension following his 2-4 start. The extension means that Manning is under contract through the end of the 2024-25 season although the school has not released details (apparently the extension itself was embarrassing enough). Manning, 45-57 overall at Wake Forest after last night’s win over Illinois, is a big name and last season did lead the school to its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2010, but we don’t understand why the school would complete the extension after what we would kindly refer to as a rough start to this season. Of course, we also don’t understand in general why schools give many coaches, who are far from superstars, such favorable contracts, but then again we actually have to pay for the contracts we sign to while these schools/administrators just make someone else pay for it (usually taxpayers, students, or boosters).
4. We normally try not to get too involved with legal issues (well, at least outside of that whole FBI investigation), but we were interested in Michael McCann’s analysis of the lawsuit filed against DraftExpress that claims the highlight videos on the site constitute copyright infringement. The actual case is quite nuanced (how else do lawyers get their billable hours?), but essentially the plaintiff in this case (Wazee Digital) licenses video content for the NCAA and claims that the DraftExpress videos, which use that content without paying licensing fees, devalue those rights and Wazee should be compensated for that. We won’t go into too much detail about “fair use” and other legal details, but encourage you to read McCann’s analysis because the outcome could affect the way that nearly all online sports video content is consumed.
5. The strange coaching career of Tim Floyd came to an end on Monday night as he announced his retirement following a loss to Lamar. Floyd, probably best known as the coach to of the Chicago Bulls after Phil Jackson left and as the coach involved in the OJ Mayo scandal, had toiled in relative obscurity the past seven-plus seasons at UTEP, but before that compiled an impressive coaching resume that included 444 career wins (taking away 21 wins that were vacated from his season with Mayo). Floyd’s college journey included stops at Idaho, New Orleans, Iowa State, and USC before finishing at UTEP and made it to the NCAA Tournament at every stop outside of Idaho and UTEP making it to the Sweet Sixteen twice (Iowa State and USC).

After a two-game appetizer on Monday night that resulted in a 2-0 ACC lead, the ACC/Big Ten Challenge revs into high gear this evening with a full slate of five more games.

• Louisville at Purdue (8:00 PM, ESPN): Of the 10 Challenge teams playing tonight, only Louisville is ranked in this week’s AP Top 25, checking in at #17.  The Cardinals, which have won their first four games with new head coach David Padgett at the helm, travel to Mackey Arena for their sternest test to date to take on Purdue. The Boilermakers are coming off of a disappointing seventh place finish at the Battle 4 Atlantis during Feast Week, but they finished strong in obliterating Arizona in an 11-of-22 performance from three-point range. Padgett’s group has thus far sustained the defensive prowess and identity (second nationally in block percentage and 10th in two-point field goal percentage) of former head coach Rick Pitino, but Purdue will represent a significant step up in weight class in the featured game of the evening.

The Cardinals Have Maintained A Similar Style Under David Padgett (Credit: Michael Clevenger/Courier-Journal)

• Florida State at Rutgers (7:00 PM, ESPNU): Considering the Seminoles’ opposition to date, a 5-0 start isn’t all that surprising, but the manner in which they have achieved that result most certainly has been. Florida State has exceeded 85 points in four of its first five contests by shooting a very healthy 53 percent as a team, highlighted by a blistering 64 percent conversion rate from inside the arc (trailing only Xavier nationally). A trip to visit 6-0 Rutgers should make for an interesting match-up, as neither squad has played a top-100 team nor have they been tested. Terrance Mann will be the focal point of Steve Pikiell’s defensive game plan, as the junior has missed only seven of his 40 two-point field goal attempts so far this season.

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