In one of the more secretly important deadline decisions of the day, Kentucky junior Jodie Meeks has decided to stay in the NBA Draft and forgo his senior year in Lexington. Although many draft pundits would question the decision because Meeks is only projected as a late first to early second round pick (Insider access required), Fran Fraschilla brings up the point that this year’s class is extremely weak and Meeks might not rise any higher even if he comes back for another year. Normally I would agree with the dogma that an underclassman shouldn’t leave without a first round guarantee (I’m assuming Meeks hasn’t received one), but I have to agree with Fraschilla on this one. For all of Meeks’ talent and scoring prowess, NBA scouts just don’t seem that interested in him. He’s unlikely to jump more than a few spots, but could drop as well depending on which players declare next year.

However, since this is a college basketball site we’re more concerned with the effect it will have on next season and John Calipari‘s Kentucky Wildcats. When asked about Meeks’ decision Calipari simply said, “We’ll be fine.” Not to go Bill Clinton on Calipari, but I’m curious what he means when he says the Wildcats will be “fine”. The Wildcats will certainly exceed last year’s poor performance, but after the summer they had the folks in Lexington were probably already booking hotel rooms in Indianapolis to watch their beloved Wildcats cut down the nets. While the current iteration  of the Wildcats (featuring Patrick Patterson, John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Daniel Orton, and Eric Bledsoe) certainly has the potential to do so, but if Calipari had been able to lure Meeks back the Wildcats would have been the prohibitive favorites to cut down the nets. With Meeks leaving the Wildcats are still a top 5-10 team, but the lack of a proven perimeter scorer puts them a level below Kansas. The Wildcats will still have the ability to beat any team in the nation, but the lack of a proven perimeter threat will make them a much easier out in the tournament unless Wall, Bledsoe, or Jon Hood can develop into that threat by next March.

It’s an odd source for news like this to break (at an odd time, no less), but SLAM magazine reported early Tuesday morning that mega-recruit John Wall has verbally committed to play for John Calipari at Kentucky next season.   A local television station in Lexington is echoing the SLAM story, but we’ve yet to find a second reliable source so we remain a little skeptical until we hear from one of the stalwarts in the industry – Goodman, Katz, et al.

Wall Could Be the Crown Jewel in the Greatest UK Class Ever

Assuming this is true, there’s little question that John Calipari has had the greatest first six weeks of recruiting in the history of the game at any school, landing the top PG (Wall) and big man (DeMarcus Cousins) in the class of 2009, as well as another top 25 player (Eric Bledsoe).  He has also managed to keep two other top 40 recruits landed by his predecessor in the fold (Daniel Orton and Jon Hood) in addition to convincing all-american Patrick Patterson to return for his junior campaign.  Reports indicate that UK’s other all-american player, Jodie Meeks, is also likely to return for his senior season.

This sets up an unreal potential starting lineup of:

PG – John Wall
SG – Eric Bledsoe
SF – Jodie Meeks
PF – Patrick Patterson
C – DeMarcus Cousins

With Daniel Orton, Jon Hood, DeAndre Liggins, Darius Miller and Perry Stevenson coming off the bench.

All due respect to the teams domiciled in Lawrence, E. Lansing and Chapel Hill, but that looks like the #1 lineup to us…

Let’s see if it’s true.

It looks like the rich are just getting richer. Just a little over a week after Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich announced that they were returning to Kansas next year, Xavier and C.J. Henry have announced that they will be joining a loaded Jayhawk team next season. After initially committing to Memphis before the whole Billy Gillispie/John Calipari circus, several media members (including yours truly) speculated that Kentucky might end up picking up an all-time great recruiting class if they added Calipari’s original commits from Memphis (the Henrys, DeMarcus Cousins, and potentially John Wall) to a class that already included Daniel Orton and Jon Hood.

While Cousins has signed with Kentucky, the loss of the Henrys and the rumors that Wall is looking elsewhere means that the Kentucky class might end up just being very, very good instead of being an all-time great class. Meanwhile Bill Self just earned himself the #1 spot in all the preseason polls. So the pressure is on now Jayhawk fans. It’s national title or bust for this Jayhawk squad.

After a weekend full of speculation about who would replace Billy Gillispie as the next head coach at Kentucky it looks like we finally have our answer in the form of John Calipari. Our sources had been mentioning Calipari as a potential replacement for Gillispie as early as a week ago, but that was obviously delayed by the fact that his Memphis team was still playing in the NCAA tournament. Fortunately, for the administration at Kentucky, even after last year’s title game collapse against Kansas, Calipari still didn’t think it was worthwhile having his team work on free throws and as a result they were bounced by Missouri in the Sweet 16 (their lack of defense against Missouri didn’t help their cause either).

Although the details of the deal have not been released yet, it would be safe to assume that Calipari is at around the $3 million/year figure that our source was saying it would take to lure him away from Memphis (9pm update: ESPN is now reporting the offer is 8 yrs/$35M). In addition, Kentucky will have also have to come up with the money to compensate for the $5 million bonus Calipari would have collected had he finished his contract at Memphis, which ran through the 2012-13 season at $2.5 million/year. (Break open those checkbooks Wildcat boosters!).

What might be even bigger than the physical switch of Calipari for Gillispie on the sidelines is the potential chain reaction this could have on the Memphis/Kentucky recruiting classes and Tyreke Evans. Going into today, Kentucky only had one 5-star (Daniel Orton) and one 4-star (Jon Hood) recruit who had signed a letter of intent to play in Lexington. With the addition of Calipari, the Wildcats would almost certainly get DeMarcus Cousins (the #2 overall recruit) who has committed to Memphis, but did not sign a letter of intent, and potentially Xavier Henry (the #3 overall recruit) who signed a letter of intent at Memphis, but could petition the NCAA for a release (4-star recruit Nolan Dennis has stated that he has an agreement with Memphis that he will be released from his letter of intent if Calipari leaves). In addition, they would suddenly be in the running for John Wall (the #1 overall recruit) who has not committed to a school yet, but is said to be very high on Memphis Calipari. Adding 2 of those 3 to a Kentucky lineup that leaned heavily on Patrick Patterson and Jodie Meeks this year would almost certainly make the Wildcats go from a NIT participant to Final 4 favorites. If Calipari were able to pull off a miracle and get Henry released from his letter and bring all three with him to Kentucky to go with Patterson, Meeks, and Orton, the Wildcats would suddenly emerge as the prohibitive favorites and the fans in Lexington might start having visions of the 1996 Kentucky team running through their heads for the next six months.

What would happen to Memphis? Disaster. Tyreke Evans, who has seen his NBA draft stock rebound after slipping during his difficult adjustment to the college game, would most likely head to the NBA leaving the Tigers without a true star for the first time in years (Robert Dozier and Antonio Anderson are both seniors). Losing such a great recruiting class (one of the best since the Chris Webber-led “Fab 5”) would be a crushing blow to a program that has risen up from playing in Conference USA to become one of the premier programs in the nation in the past 5-10 years. The next question for Memphis is who will replace Calipari on the sideline. Current reports indicate that Calpari is pushing for his long-time assistant Tony Barbee to be named as his successor, but it’s likely that the Memphis AD will look to lure big-names such as Mike Anderson or Tim Floyd to what has become one fo the premier coaching destinations in the country.

Team: Kentucky Wildcats

Record: 19-12 (8-8)

Preseason Expectations: The Wildcats fell into the “others receiving votes” category in both the AP and the ESPN/USA Today polls. But in a year most people predicted the SEC to be weak, Kentucky was predicted to finish third in the SEC East by most publications, and were considered a good bet to be in the NCAA tournament come March. A distant glimmer from AD Mitch Barnhart saying the Wildcats would accept an NIT bid.

Best Wins: Kentucky won the Las Vegas Invitational at the end of November, and had to beat Kansas State (74-72) and West Virginia (54-43) to do so. But there most impressive win is obviously their 90-72 victory in Knoxville over Bruce Pearl and co. If you were hiding under a rock during that game, Jodie Meeks dropped 54 points on the Volunteers. They beat  Tennessee again in late February, 77-58.

Worst Losses: Allowing VMI to score triple digits in a 111-103 loss on in their opening game was not the start that Billy Gillispie was looking for. But their worst loss came just five days ago when they had a chance to strengthen their tournament resume and got beat by a scuffling, rudderless Georgia team at Rupp Arena.

Where it ended: Right after their second victory of Tennessee, it looked like Kentucky was in a great position to make it to the field of 65 as they sat 19-8 (8-4). But just four days later the ‘Cats got embarrassed on the road by South Carolina (77-59), which started the four game losing streak they are currently on which includes uninspired losses to LSU, Georgia, and Florida.  Now a deep SEC tournament run is the only thing that will save them.

What went wrong: It should be impossible to finish just 8-8 in the SEC with two players as good as Meeks and Patrick Patterson, but the Wildcats did a darn good job of it and their lack of a point guard is to blame. Darius Miller, DeAndre Liggins, and most recently, Michael Porter, have all tried their hand at the position with mixed results. In fact, no one on Kentucky averages more than 3.1 assists per game and only little used reserve Landon Slone carries an assist/turnover ratio better than 1.2/1. Sloppy play and rookie mistakes plagued the ‘Cats all season and have cost them down the stretch.

What’s next: A lot of analysts seem to think that if Kentucky fails to make it to the NCAA tournament, they could lose both Patterson and Meeks to the NBA which would be a crippling blow to Gillispie. Kentucky has four prospects signed for next year, including five-star center Daniel Orton, but no one outside of Lexington thinks that three-star GJ Vilarino will come in and save the team at the point position. Kentucky’s best hope is to put on the full-court press for uncommitted stud Eric Bledsoe and hope that Meeks and Patterson stay around another year.

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Team: Virginia Tech Hokies

Record: 17-13 (7-9)

Preseason Expectations: The Hokies were predicted to finish sixth in the ACC but received no love from the national polls and were left out of everyone’s top 25. But, they were a trendy sleeper pick at the beginning of the year if they could get improvements from sophomores Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen.

Best Wins: In the middle of January the Hokies traveled to play a streaking Wake Forest team that had just earned the No.1 ranking, and thoroughly outplayed the Demon Deacons, weathering a late rally to hold on for a 77-71 victory. Their only other victory of note came in late February when they beat Clemson 80-77 in Blacksburg and get Hokie fans talking about the tournament.

Worst Losses: For Seth Greenberg and his team, it really depends on how you define “worst”. This team wouldn’t even be on the bubble if it hadn’t been for some heart-palpitating, last second losses. The team lost to Xavier in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Puerto Rico Tipoff 63-62 on a 60-foot buzzer beat from Dante Jackson. Just 10 days later they got beat by Wisconsin 74-72 when Trevon Hughes hit an improbable runner in the lane with less than one second left. Then, at the end of January, they lost to BC by one point (67-66) on a Rakim Sanders put back with less than one second left as well. The team also had bad losses to Seton Hall, Georgia, and Virginia, but those three heartbreakers are what they will remember if they are playing in the NIT this year.

Where it ended: One might say in ended when Sanders hit that put back, because since then, the team is just 3-6, and although they have beaten Clemson and North Carolina State over that time, playing well down the stretch counts, and the Hokies have lost their last three games, albeit all to ranked teams. The Hokies don’t have the worst RPI (59), but they are the No. 8 seed in their conference tournament, and even if they do make it past Miami, that means a date with No. 1 seed North Carolina in Greensboro…Good Luck!

What went wrong: Virginia Tech is a very hard team to figure out. You could cite end of the game execution and focus as to where they went astray with those three back-breaking losses because if they didn’t lose those games, we would be talking about a 20-win team. But really they went wrong when their big three (Delaney, Allen and A.D. Vassallo) started disappearing in key games. For example, in losses to Wisconsin, Georgia, and Florida State, Allen had two, eight, and six points respectively. In losses to Xavier and Duke, Vassallo had four, and seven points respectively. And, in their past three losses, Delaney has shot a combined 10-40 from the field. If those players had stepped up in crucial moments, this season would have gone differently.

What’s next: Seth Greenberg must be getting frustrated. Every year, the Hokies are so close, and yet fail to come up big down the stretch. But, assuming that both Allen and Delaney will be back for their junior seasons, the Hokies are in good shape. They lose their leading scorer in Vassallo, but they only lose one other player, and Cheick Diakite is a non-factor. Greenberg has also been successful on the recruiting trail. He has signed a solid, well-balanced, five-man class that features all three-star players. With added depth, and continued improvement, the Hokies should be a tournament team in 2010.

 There’s a lot of news out there today…  which only means one thing…

• Goodman continues on his crusade to expose the underbelly of the game with today’s lead – the father of UK’s new hotshot recruit, Daniel Orton, was paid three times over the summer to give talks at Billy Gillispie’s camp.  This is completely legal, by the way.  Discuss. 
• Too many preseason/holiday tourneys?  ESPN announced today that the Diamond Head Classic will begin in 2009 at the University of Hawaii.  It will finish up on Christmas Day, which will provide a nice collegiate alternative to the annual Shaq-Kobe matchup in the NBA.
• Please read this, “conference fans.”  It’s even truer in basketball.
• Is it sad or compelling that this endorsement could tip North Carolina to Obama in three weeks? 
• Ok, great.  Players are graduating more than they used to.  But is that because they’re committed to the degree program or schools are making it easier to get that degree?
• A quick Class of 2009 recruiting update from NW Wins, as well as a nice overview of the likelihood of Carolina running the table in the regular season this year.
• WAC coaches pick Nevada to win their conference, while Big South coaches/media picked Winthrop to win it again. 
• NBCSports picks AJ Price, Stephen Curry, James Harden, Tyler Hansbrough and Luke Harongody as its all-americans.  We’re just not feeling Price, sorry UConn fans.
• Parrish thinks that this year’s Florida squad will be quite a bit better than last year’s, and we can’t say that we really disagree with that.
• Andy Katz assures us that KU’s 2008 national title is safe in light of the re-opening case of Darrell Arthur’s HS transcripts.  You know, because we were worried, or something.
• He also gives his preseason view of 37 teams that he thinks can make a run next March.
• Hey, we’ve always been Stacy Dales fans, BC!  Even when she was married to someone named Schulman.  Looks like we may not be able to root out Psycho T for her attention, though.