Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Last Update: Friday, March 9, 8:29 AM ET.

Changes:

• Mississippi State sustained their second loss of the season to Georgia Thursday at the SEC Tournament. Combine that with losses to Auburn, Arkansas, LSU and Ole Miss, a #66 RPI, #66 SOS and #191 non-conference SOS and all of a sudden the floundering Bulldogs are dangerously close to missing the NCAA Tournament, a crime given their talent level. The only thing saving them at this point is bubble teams Seton Hall, Washington and Northwestern all sustaining crucial losses today. State remains in the projected field at 21-1 (8-9) with wins at Vanderbilt, vs. Purdue and vs. West Virginia.
• South Florida remains in the field despite their loss to Notre Dame. In fact, the Bulls aren’t even in the last four in. They should breathe easy with 13 Big East wins, including at Louisville (which looks stronger after today), vs. Cincinnati and vs. Seton Hall. Notre Dame jumps up a few spots with yet another Big East top-50 win on the S-Curve and could climb even further with a victory Friday night.
• Texas’ huge win over Iowa State combined with other bubble losses all but locks up a spot in the field despite only four wins against the RPI top-100. The Longhorns have now beaten Iowa State twice, Kansas State and Temple with decent computer numbers (#52 RPI, #21 SOS, #98 non-conference SOS).
• Lamar out of the Southland replaces UT-Arlington as a #16 seed with LIU-Brooklyn hoping up a seed line.
• Oregon is now eliminated from bubble contention with their Pac-12 Tournament loss to Colorado. Cal is the only team still alive in that tournament currently projected in the field, so the odds of a bid stealer are considerable if Cal makes the finals and appears in good shape for an at-large.

• Last Four In: Seton Hall, Drexel, Miami (FL), Mississippi State.
  
• First Four Out: Washington, Tennessee, Northwestern, NC State.
  
• Next Four Out: Dayton, Oral Roberts, St. Joseph’s, Iona.
  

3/9 S-Curve

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina

2 Seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State

3 Seeds: Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Georgetown

4 Seeds: Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Louisville

5 Seeds: Temple, Wichita State, Murray State, UNLV

6 Seeds: Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Florida, Creighton

7 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, San Diego State, Gonzaga, New Mexico

8 Seeds: Iowa State, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Memphis

9 Seeds: Purdue, Saint Louis, Connecticut, Alabama

10 Seeds: Virginia, Southern Miss, Harvard, West Virginia

11 Seeds: Colorado State, California, BYU, VCU

12 Seeds: Texas, Long Beach State, South Florida, Xavier, Mississippi State

13 Seeds: Miami (FL), Drexel, Seton Hall, Nevada, Davidson

14 Seeds: South Dakota State, Akron, Belmont, Montana

15 Seeds: Loyola (MD), Detroit, Lehigh, LIU-Brooklyn

16 Seeds: UNC-Asheville, Norfolk State, Lamar, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Temple, North Carolina, Belmont, Kansas, Syracuse, Montana, UNC-Asheville, Michigan State, Long Beach State, VCU, Memphis, Detroit, Harvard, Loyola (MD), Akron, Norfolk State, Creighton, San Diego State, LIU Brooklyn, Murray State, Washington, Lehigh, Kentucky, Davidson, Lamar, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Saint Mary’s, Nevada.

Bids per conference: Big East (10), Big 12 (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (5), ACC (5), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (3), West Coast (3), Conference USA (2), Missouri Valley (2), Colonial (2).

To earn a spot in the field:

• Southern Miss- Reach the Conference USA Tournament semifinals by beating Marshall
• Virginia- Beat NC State in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals
• Colorado State- Beat San Diego State in the Mountain West Tournament semifinals
• California- Beat Oregon in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals (semifinal game vs. Colorado would not clinch bid)
• Miami- Beat Florida State in the quarterfinal and Duke in the semifinal (semifinal win vs. Virginia Tech would not clinch bid)
• Long Beach State- Reach the Big West Tournament final
• Xavier- Beat Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Tournament final then Saint Louis in the semifinal (semifinal game vs. La Salle/Richmond would not clinch bid)
• Tennessee- Beat Vanderbilt in the semifinals
• Dayton– Reach the Atlantic 10 Tournament final by beating Xavier and Saint Louis
• NC State– Reach the ACC Tournament finals by beating Virginia and then Florida State/Miami

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Last Update: Wednesday, March 7, 5:49 PM ET.

Changes:

• Connecticut jumps to the #9 seed line following their Big East Tournament win over West Virginia. The Huskies boast six RPI top-50 wins including a sweep of the Mountaineers, a true road win at Notre Dame and a neutral court victory over Harvard. UConn is safely in the field and they face Syracuse on Thursday in a game where they have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
• West Virginia is now a horribly mediocre 19-14 overall and 9-10 in Big East play. During most other seasons that would punch their ticket to the NIT, but due to the soft bubble, Pac-12 struggles and lack of bid stealers thus far, Bob Huggins’ team is still projected to make the tournament by a decent margin. At the moment they sit as the final #10 seed on the S-Curve but will likely drop as teams below them have opportunities to gather quality wins during the week. Despite the shoddy record, WVU does boast a #45 RPI, #16 SOS and has beaten projected NCAA teams Georgetown, Kansas State, Miami, Cincinnati, USF and Akron, while UConn isn’t considered a “bad” loss.

• Last Four In: Northwestern, Xavier, Texas, South Florida.
  
• First Four Out: Seton Hall, Drexel, Tennessee, Oregon.
  
• Next Four Out: Dayton, NC State, Oral Roberts, St. Joseph’s.            

3/7 S-Curve

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina

2 Seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State

3 Seeds: Marquette, Michigan, Baylor, Georgetown

4 Seeds: Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple

5 Seeds: Wichita State, Murray State, UNLV, Louisville

6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Florida, Notre Dame, Creighton

7 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Iowa State, San Diego State, Gonzaga

8 Seeds: New Mexico, Kansas State, Purdue, Memphis

9 Seeds: Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Alabama, Connecticut

10 Seeds: Southern Miss, Virginia, Harvard, West Virginia

11 Seeds: Colorado State, Mississippi State, California, BYU

12 Seeds: VCU, Miami, Washington, South Florida, Long Beach State

13 Seeds: Texas, Xavier, Northwestern, Nevada, Davidson

14 Seeds: South Dakota State, Akron, Belmont, Montana

15 Seeds: Loyola (MD), Bucknell, Detroit, UT-Arlington

16 Seeds: UNC-Asheville, LIU-Brooklyn, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Savannah State, Western Kentucky

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Temple, North Carolina, Belmont, Kansas, Syracuse, Montana, UNC-Asheville, Michigan State, Long Beach State, VCU, Memphis, Detroit, Harvard, Loyola (MD), Akron, Savannah State, Creighton, San Diego State, LIU Brooklyn, Murray State, Washington, Bucknell, Kentucky, Davidson, UT-Arlington, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Saint Mary’s, Nevada.

Bids per conference: Big East (9), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), ACC (5), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (3), WCC (3), Conference USA (2), Missouri Valley (2), Pac-12 (2).

Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

• Last Four In: Northwestern, Xavier, Texas, South Florida.
  
• First Four Out: Seton Hall, VCU, Tennessee, Oregon.
  
• Next Four Out: Dayton, NC State, Arizona, St. Joseph’s.              

click on bracket to enlarge

S-Curve

• 1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina
• 2 Seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State
• 3 Seeds: Marquette, Michigan, Baylor, Georgetown
• 4 Seeds: Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple
• 5 Seeds: Wichita State, Murray State, UNLV, Louisville
• 6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Florida, Notre Dame, Creighton
• 7 Seeds: Iowa State, Gonzaga, San Diego State, New Mexico
• 8 Seeds: Kansas State, Purdue, Memphis, Saint Mary’s
• 9 Seeds: Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Alabama, Southern Miss
• 10 Seeds: Virginia, Harvard, Connecticut, West Virginia
• 11 Seeds: Colorado State, Mississippi State, California, BYU
• 12 Seeds: Miami, Washington, South Florida, Texas, Long Beach State
• 13 Seeds: Xavier, Northwestern, Drexel, Nevada, Oral Roberts
• 14 Seeds: Davidson, Belmont, Akron, Montana
• 15 Seeds: Denver, Valparaiso, Loyola (MD), Bucknell
  
• 16 Seeds: UT-Arlington, UNC-Asheville, LIU-Brooklyn, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley, Savannah State

Read the rest of this entry »

I. Renko is an RTC columnist. He will kick off each weekend during the season with his analysis of the 26 other non-power conferences. Follow him on twitter @IRenkoHoops.

The lovely little secret of Championship Week is that it unfolds over the course of not seven but 14 days.  While many mid-major conferences are closing out their regular season this weekend, others are capping conference tournament play that began as early as Monday.  The frenzy of action means that there’s lots of hardware to be won, both for regular season excellence and for postseason prowess.  Perhaps most important of all, there are tickets to the Dance on the line, and while none have been secured yet, within just five days, a whopping 14 teams will have earned a trip to the Tournament.  (And possibly 15, depending on how things shake out in the Ivy League.)

After the updated Top 15, we lay out the schedule for every TO26 conference championship game, congratulate the teams that have clinched their regular season conference title, and highlight five things to watch for over the next five days of conference tournament action.

Schedule of TO26 Conference Tournament Championship Games

Here’s your viewer’s guide to conference tournament championship games — where auto bids are won, courts are rushed, and Cinderellas are born.

• Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

• Last Four In: Xavier, Miami, BYU, South Florida
• First Four Out: Northwestern, VCU, Oregon, Arizona
• Next Four Out: St. Joseph’s, Dayton, NC State, UCF

(italics indicates auto bid)

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke, Kansas

2 Seeds: Michigan State, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio State

3 Seeds: Baylor, Michigan, Georgetown, Marquette

4 Seeds: Indiana, Wisconsin, Wichita State, Florida State

5 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Louisville, Temple, Murray State

6 Seeds: Florida, UNLV, Notre Dame, San Diego State

7 Seeds: New Mexico, Creighton, Gonzaga, Purdue

8 Seeds: Iowa State, Saint Mary’s, Kansas State, Cincinnati

9 Seeds: Alabama, Memphis, Southern Miss, Saint Louis

10 Seeds: Virginia, California, Harvard, Seton Hall

11 Seeds: Long Beach State, West Virginia, Connecticut, Washington

12 Seeds: Mississippi State, Texas, Colorado State, South Florida, BYU

13 Seeds: Miami, Xavier, Oral Roberts, Iona, Drexel

14 Seeds: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, Akron, Davidson

15 Seeds: Belmont, Valparaiso, Montana, UT-Arlington

16 Seeds: Bucknell, LIU-Brooklyn, UNC-Asheville, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley, Savannah State

Read the rest of this entry »

Michael Vernetti is the RTC correspondent for the WCC.

Showdown in Las Vegas

So, it’s decided but it’s really not. Saint Mary’s closed out the WCC regular season with a tough 67-60 victory over San Francisco on the road, earning an undisputed conference championship for the first time since the 1989 squad coached by Lynn Nance. The Gaels tied Gonzaga for the regular-season title last year – the Zags’ 11^th straight WCC championship – and needed a win over San Francisco to avoid another tie this year. They got it, but not without a dogged fight from the Dons, who closed out the season with home games against the conference’s top three teams – BYU, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s. They made them all pay, losing narrowly to BYU (85-84), edging Gonzaga, 66-65, and giving Saint Mary’s all they could handle before a frantic home crowd.

The WCC Tournament beginning Wednesday at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas will have a lot to say about how many conference members advance to the NCAA Tournament, and, almost as important, where they will play and how high they are seeded. The tournament champion receives the automatic NCAA bid, but almost all commentators agree that both Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga will receive bids no matter what happens in Las Vegas. The same cannot be said for BYU, however, so the Cougars’ need to make a strong showing in Las Vegas – perhaps even win the championship – in one of the compelling stories that will play out over the weekend.

Can Saint Mary's Earn The Automatic Bid Into The Big Dance? Conference POY Matthew Dellavedova Will Have A Huge Say In That (AP)

Others revolve around the conference’s mystery team, Loyola Marymount, and whether San Francisco can maintain the fierce defensive intensity it displayed down the stretch at home with days off between games. The Dons’ road to a high tournament finish requires victories on Thursday against the winner of a play-in game between Portland and Santa Clara, a Friday win against a Loyola team that beat them twice in the regular season, then a semifinal contest on Saturday against the Gaels, who also beat them twice in conference. Not an easy path.

Loyola is in a better position to wreak havoc than San Francisco. Earning a first-round tournament bye with its fourth-place conference finish, the Lions play first on Friday against the winner of the San Francisco/play-in winner game. If it’s a rematch with the Dons, tournament fans will see San Francisco take a third shot at a win that eluded them in two excruciatingly close conference games – a 77-76 overtime loss at home that saw LMU erase a 17-point second-half deficit, and a 90-88 loss in Los Angeles in which LMU had to come from 16 points down. The Dons desperately want another shot at the Lions, and feel they finished stronger than LMU because of their tough battles with the league leaders and LMU’s less-than-overwhelming finish: an inexplicable 60-57 loss to San Diego and a 68-65 nail-biter win against Santa Clara, which was winless in conference play.

Figuring out the psyche of Max Good’s squad would challenge a team of Freuds, however, as the Lions bounced back and forth between helpless – a 76-63 home loss to North Texas – and sublime – a 75-60 upset of Saint Mary’s in Moraga, the Gaels’ only home loss all season. One of the Lions’ quirks is they play better on the road than at home, so maybe a trip to Las Vegas is just what Dr. Freud would order. If they do, indeed, meet and beat San Francisco in the quarterfinals, they will move on to another encounter with Saint Mary’s in Saturday’s first semifinal game (6:00 PM PT, ESPN2). That the Gaels would like another shot at LMU goes without saying, as that loss cost them both a lofty national ranking and injuries to guard Stephen Holt, whose return from a torn meniscus is still undecided, center Brad Waldow, who re-injured a bruised rib and had to sit out much of the action, and even indestructible guard Matthew Dellavedova, who turned an ankle and left the game for several minutes in the second half.

Who Us? Rex Walters and USF Are Playing Great Basketball (Comcast Sports Net)

BYU’s path to a possible tournament championship takes them through a quarterfinal match with the winner of a San Diego-Pepperdine contest and a semifinal rematch with Gonzaga, with whom they split regular-season games. BYU was without outstanding forward Noah Hartsock (knee injury) for all but the first seven minutes of the second Gonzaga game on Feb. 23, a 74-63 loss. Hartsock also sat out BYU’s final conference game, a 76-66 win over Portland, and his status for Las Vegas has not been announced. With Hartsock in the lineup, a BYU-Gonzaga rematch in Saturday’s second semifinal match (ESPN2, 8:oo PM PT) could be a classic, but we’ll have to wait to see whether Hartsock can go.

As for the championship game on Monday night (6:00 PM PT, ESPN), it has featured Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s for the last three years (Gonzaga won two of the three), and a similar match-up would surprise no one. It would be a rubber game, as the teams split in conference play, and could determine whether either team receives a favorable or dicey NCAA seeding.

Reader’s Take

Final Standings

Here’s how the 2011-12 WCC season ended up:

1. Saint Mary’s (25-5, 14-2).
2. Gonzaga (23-5, 13-3).
3. BYU (24-7, 12-4)
4. Loyola Marymount (19-11, 11-5)
5. San Francisco (18-12, 8-8)
6. San Diego (12-1, 7-9)
7. Pepperdine (10-18, 4-12)
8. Portland (6-23, 3-13)
9. Santa Clara (8-21, 0-16)

WCC Honors

For the second year in a row a Saint Mary’s guard is the West Coast Conference Player of the Year. This time it is Matthew Dellavedova, the 6’4″ junior from Maryborough, Victoria, Australia, who led the conference in assists (6.6 per game) and was third in scoring (16.4 PPG). The Gaels’ Mickey McConnell rated the POY nod last year, and not many observers of the conference would bet against Dellavedova repeating in 2013. In addition to his conference honors, Dellavedova is a finalist in the Bob Cousy Award competition for the nation’s best point guard. Last week, he was named a Capital One Academic All-American, the first Saint Mary’s player to be so honored.

While the choice of Dellavedova raised no eyebrows, selecting Max Good of Loyola Marymount as coach of the year might – even among Loyola fans and alumni. Good has been on the hot seat at LMU ever since last year’s team – picked to compete for conference honors – finished in last place at 2-12. While not ducking his share of blame for the team’s collapse, Good insisted that without crippling injuries his team would have been much better. The Lions weathered some early-season injuries – most notably to All-Conference Forward Drew Viney and his front court mate Ashley Hamilton – and, indeed, did do better this year, finishing fourth in the conference with an 11-5 mark. Along the way, LMU posted wins over UCLA, St. Louis and Valparaiso in non-conference play and over BYU and Saint Mary’s in conference. Good’s fellow coaches – who make the conference honors selections – evidently believe in redemption.

Other individual honors announced by the WCC on Tuesday were Defensive Player of the Year to Gonzaga’s 7’0” senior center Robert Sacre, whose 25 blocks led the league; and WCC Newcomer of the Year to Gonzaga freshman guard Kevin Pangos, whose deadly three-point shooting accounted for 12.8 PPG and 36 three-point field goals. The WCC All-conference team is composed of:

• Angelo Caloiaro, San Francisco
• Brandon Davies, BYU
• Matthew Dellavedova, Saint Mary’s
• Elias Harris, Gonzaga
• Noah Hartsock, BYU
• Anthony Ireland, Loyola
• Rob Jones, Saint Mary’s
• Kevin Pangos, Gonzaga
• Robert Sacre, Gonzaga
• Drew Viney, Loyola

The conference all-freshman team:

• Gary Bell, Jr, Gonzaga
• Matt Carlino, BYU
• Johnny Dee, San Diego
• Kevin Pangos, Gonzaga
• Brad Waldow, Saint Mary’s

Honorable mention was accorded to Perris Blackwell, center, San Francisco; Carlino and Dee; Rashad Green, guard, San Francisco; Stephen Holt, guard, Saint Mary’s; and Corbin Moore, center, Pepperdine.

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Locks: Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Wichita State, Creighton, UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State, Murray State, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga.

Note: all RPI/SOS numbers compiled Sunday.

Dee Bost and Mississippi State is falling perilously close to the bubble

Atlantic 10

Saint Louis (22-6, 10-4)- The worst thing a bubble team can do this time of year is sustain a “bad” loss. Bad doesn’t even begin to describe Saturday’s setback at sub-#250 RPI Rhode Island. The overall record, #36 RPI, high KenPom/Sagarin rating and wins over fellow bubble teams Xavier, St. Joe’s and Dayton are positives, but the URI loss is undoubtedly a black mark on the resume. The winner of their rematch with Xavier on Tuesday will feel much more secure about their chances.

Xavier (18-10, 9-5)- The Musketeers haven’t exactly impressed lately, barely dodging Dayton and Richmond at home in between a seven-point defeat at UMass. Their resume is boosted by a difficult non-conference schedule which includes wins at Vanderbilt and home vs. Purdue. Xavier sits firmly on the cut line with an RPI of 53, SOS of 50 and a 5-6 road record. If they fall short at SLU, they’ll need to beat Charlotte at home and at least one game in the A-10 Tournament.

Saint Joseph’s (19-11, 9-6)- The Hawks jumped back into the bubble hunt with their win over ranked and red-hot Temple on Saturday and their computer numbers (51 RPI, 44 SOS, 41 non-conference SOS) suggests they could be around awhile. The win over Creighton is also helpful, but St. Joe’s lost five times to sub-#80 RPI teams, including Richmond, Charlotte and American. They’ll need to avoid a potential pitfall at St. Bonaventure on Wednesday and forge deep into the A-10 Tournament. St. Joe’s beat Dayton and lost to Xavier.

Dayton (18-10, 8-6)- Dayton’s mid-season four game losing skid keeps them on the outside looking in for now and the Flyers also have the worst RPI (61) of the A-10 bubble teams. Dayton’s lost four games to sub-100 RPI competition including #232 Miami (OH) and #251 Rhode Island. The 3-6 road record also stings. Keeping them afloat are wins at Temple and at home against Alabama, Saint Louis and Xavier. Winning their final two at Richmond and vs. George Washington are musts.

ACC

Virginia (21-7, 8-6)- The Cavs have three chances to lock up a bid to end the season: North Carolina, Florida State and at Maryland. They fell painfully short in the first opportunity, losing to the Heels by three in Charlottesville. Only one RPI top-50 win over Michigan from back in November and a #223 non-conference SOS will hurt their seed, Virginia should get in at 9-7 in the ACC in this bubble climate. Virginia also won at Oregon and beat Miami at home. A win over FSU locks up a bid.

Miami (16-10, 7-6)- Despite Reggie Johnson’s suspension, the Canes soundly handled Florida State, a win tremendously important to their at-large chances. Prior to Sunday, their second-best win after Duke was #81 RPI Massachusetts. Miami has a stellar #48 RPI and #32 SOS, but they’re far from comfortably in with a 4-7 road record and a 4-10 record vs. the RPI top-100. Their Wednesday trip to Raleigh is huge. They can’t afford another road setback after losing at Maryland last week.

NC State (18-11, 7-7)- Mark Gottfried’s bunch had three chances for resume-building wins at Duke and home vs. UNC and Florida State. They lost all three and compounded the problem by falling at #144 RPI Clemson this past Saturday. NC State is 0-8 vs. the RPI top-50 and now stands at 7-7 in the ACC with a #67 RPI. A loss in either of their final two games vs. Miami and at Virginia Tech would all but eliminate them from bubble contention. They’ll need to claw their way to 9-7 and defeat one of the ACC’s big three in the conference tournament to have a chance.

Big 12

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

• Last Four In: St. Joseph’s, Northwestern, Miami, BYU.
• First Four Out: South Florida, Colorado State, Dayton, Oregon.
• Next Four Out: Arizona, VCU, Illinois, UCF.

Click on bracket to enlarge and check out my latest bubble watch update here.

S-Curve

• 1 Seeds: Syracuse, Kentucky, Kansas, Duke
• 2 Seeds: Michigan State, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio State
• 3 Seeds: Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Georgetown
• 4 Seeds: Wisconsin, Louisville, Indiana, Wichita State
• 5 Seeds: Florida, Florida State, UNLV, Notre Dame
• 6 Seeds: Temple, Vanderbilt, Murray State, Creighton
• 7 Seeds: San Diego State, New Mexico, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
• 8 Seeds: Purdue, Iowa State, Kansas State, Virginia
• 9 Seeds: Memphis, Alabama, Southern Miss, Cincinnati
• 10 Seeds: California, Saint Louis, Connecticut, West Virginia
• 11 Seeds: Long Beach State, Mississippi State, Washington, Harvard
• 12 Seeds: Seton Hall, Xavier, Texas, BYU, Miami
• 13 Seeds: Northwestern, St. Joseph’s, Oral Roberts, Iona, Drexel
• 14 Seeds: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, Akron, Davidson
• 15 Seeds: Belmont, Valparaiso, Weber State, UT-Arlington
• 16 Seeds: LIU Brooklyn, Bucknell, UNC-Asheville, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Savannah State

Read the rest of this entry »

I. Renko is an RTC columnist. He will kick off each weekend during the season with his analysis of the 26 other non-power conferences. Follow him on twitter @IRenkoHoops.

Ah, the sweet smell of February Madness in the air.  Who says we need to wait until March to start cracking open the brackets?  Six TO26 conferences kick things off in February:  the Big South (2/27), Horizon (2/28), A-Sun (2/29), Ohio Valley (2/29), Patriot (2/29), and West Coast (2/29).  And several other conferences will kick things off just as soon as the calendar turns, including the MVC in what’s sure to be another great iteration of Arch Madness. No automatic bids will be awarded until March 3 (though Harvard is in position to clinch the Ivy bid as early as March 2), but with a number of top 15 TO26 teams with at-large aspirations kicking off tournament play next week (Wichita State, Murray State, Creighton, St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU), there are heavy implications for the nationwide Bubble.  Speaking of the top 15 …

Looking Forward:  What to Watch

In addition to the conference tournaments that kick off over the next week, here are a few regularly-scheduled games to keep your eye on:

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Michael Vernetti is the WCC correspondent for RTC.

Reader’s Take

The Final Week

It all comes down to this week, WCC fans: Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU and Loyola Marymount all have legitimate shots at the conference title and the one and two seeds for next week’s WCC Tournament. In an age where parity is the Holy Grail of organized sports, the WCC has it going on. And, although this season’s nine-team schedule caused some distortions in the first half of the season, no one could have planned a more compelling finale.

Consider:

• Saint Mary’s can seize the regular season championship and a number one tournament seed by beating Portland tonight in Portland and San Francisco on Saturday in San Francisco. By beating Portland, the Gaels will guarantee at least their second consecutive share of the title. But there has to be a series of asterisks next to that hypothetical, as the Gaels are bucking several negative trends: they have lost at Portland for the last three years and they appear to stumbling toward the finish line as they did last year when they lost an unexpected league game (San Diego in San Diego), a home BracketBuster game against Utah State, then another home game against Gonzaga, before pulling out a season-ending victory over Portland to earn a share of the conference title.
  

  Despite Recent Struggles, Matthew Dellavedova and Saint Mary's Still Control Its Own Destiny (AP)

• Last week the Gaels lost an unexpected home game to Loyola Marymount, 75-60, lost to Murray State on the road, 65-51, in another BracketBuster contest, and now face a young, talented Portland team with nothing to lose on its home court tonight. Combined with injuries to starting two-guard Stephen Holt, out indefinitely with a torn meniscus suffered in the LMU loss, starting post man Brad Waldow, nursing bruised ribs, and team leader Matthew Dellavedova, who turned his ankle in the LMU game, the Gaels are wobbling into Portland.
• Gonzaga and BYU square off tonight in a monumental battle (ESPN2, 8:00 PM Pacific) that could vault either of them into a tie with Saint Mary’s for first or, if the Gaels win, eliminate one of them from title contention heading into Saturday’s final games. LMU, which is smoking hot coming off its blistering of Saint Mary’s in Moraga, sits at home for very winnable games against San Diego tonight and Santa Clara on Saturday. With just a minimal effort, the Lions could finish with four losses and cash in on whatever misfortunes befall the three teams ahead of them.
• Not to be overlooked, San Francisco hopes to take continuing advantage of a scheduling gift that brought BYU, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s onto its home court in successive weeks. The Dons battled BYU right down to a potential game-winning three-point attempt by Angelo Coloiaro that rimmed out at the buzzer for a heart-breaking 85-84 loss last Thursday. Rather than be deflated, the Dons battled Gonzaga equally hard on Saturday, and triumphed 65-64 on a last-second runner in the lane by Rashad Green. The Dons are off tonight and can devote maximum preparation to ruining Saint Mary’s season on Saturday.

Power Rankings

1. Saint Mary’s (23-5, 12-2) might seem surprised to find itself still in first place considering the confidence-shattering losses to LMU and Murray State, which knocked it out of “lock” status for a favorable seeding in the NCAA tournament and leaves the Gaels needing a win tonight or Saturday to keep its NCAA hopes alive. Randy Bennett’s troops are wounded and have to be wondering why they continue to struggle late in the season. Even with these concerns, the Gaels still control their own fate. Read the rest of this entry »