Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

• The No. 1 seeds are far from decided at this point. Michigan State‘s loss to Michigan on Sunday all but ended the Spartans chances, barring a Big Ten tournament championship. Both Michigan teams are now No. 3 seeds.
• Duke is also a No. 1 seed after holding off Miami (FL) on Saturday.

LAST FOUR IN: Saint Mary’s, Villanova, Tennessee, Iowa State
FIRST FOUR OUT: Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Maryland

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

Bracket Math: Below there are 30 locks along the right column. Basically, that number means that if none of my “locks” clinches an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, there are only 7 at-large spots available. In most years, an average of around six “locks” win automatic bids, meaning there are 13 unclinched spots for the NCAA Tournament. I also have seven teams in the “should be in” category, meaning I project their odds of getting an at-large bid at 70% or higher. If those teams ultimately get in, there are seven total spots available for the teams you see below in my bubble watch.

Remember that bid stealers will shrink that number when conference tournament teams.

LOCKS: 30
“SHOULD BE INS”: 7
TOTAL: 37 (minus six for projected auto bid winners = 30)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 7

• Odds Improving: North Carolina
• Odds Decreasing: Baylor, Iowa State

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF FEBRUARY 28, 2013

ACC: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

North Carolina (21-8, 11-5; RPI: 18): The Tar Heels are in pretty good shape with a top 20 RPI and wins over N. C. State and UNLV. North Carolina ends the season against Duke and a win there would push them to lock status. AT-LARGE ODDS: 75%Maryland (20-9, 8-8; RPI: 68): Every time Maryland seems to take a step forward, the Terps quickly take a step back. Remember the upset win against Duke? Maryland followed that by losing to Boston College and Georgia Tech. Next up are two games against the other bubble teams from the ACC–Virginia and North Carolina. If the Terps win both of those, they’ll be in better shape. The sad news is that they might have to win both.. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45% Virginia (20-9, 10-6; RPI: 57): The Cavaliers have been a strange bubble case all season. They have some of the worst losses a bubble team can have, but they also had six impressive wins. On Thursday, all of that appeared to change with a victory against Duke. On Sunday, it changed right back after a one point loss at Boston College. No matter how you spin it, this team has seven losses against teams below 100 in the RPI. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%

Atlantic 10: Three Locks, Four Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

La Salle (20-7, 10-4; RPI: 39): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, two of the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. If La Salle can handle George Washington, a road game at Saint Louis on March 9 will be gigantic. AT-LARGE ODDS: 55%Temple (21-8, 9-5; RPI: 42): The Owls are the kind of team that makes a bracketologist’s job very difficult. A win over Syracuse looks fantastic, but losses to Canisius, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s, and Xavier cannot be ignored. Five straight wins, including a comeback victory against Detroit, has the Owls on the good side of the bubble right now. A road game at Fordham looms large before a finale against VCU. AT-LARGE ODDS: 55% Charlotte (18-10, 6-8; RPI: 70): Six losses in sevens games have pushed the 49ers to the brink of at-large elimination. Wins over La Salle and Butler keep them here, but they have to win the last two and make the Atlantic Ten final. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45% Massachusetts (18-9, 8-6; RPI: 54): Massachusetts lost three straight games before back to back wins against Xavier and Dayton. The Minutemen only have one win against the RPI top 50, but seven against the RPI top 100. This seems to be real simple for Massachusetts: Beat Butler at home March 7 and they have a shot at an at-large bid. AT-LARGE ODDS: 30%

Big 12: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Oklahoma (18-8, 9-5; RPI: 29): The Sooners have to great wins against Oklahoma and Kansas State to go along with six other top 100 victories. A loss at Texas last week was a big blow because Oklahoma blew a gigantic lead and suffered its worst loss of the season as a result. Next up are West Virginia and TCU, the worst two teams in the Big 12. If Oklahoma wraps up the regular season by winning both of these games, the Sooners are basically a lock. AT-LARGE ODDS: 60% Iowa State (19-10, 9-7; RPI: 53): It’s really too bad that the Cyclones could not finish off what would have been a huge upset over Kansas on Tuesday. Throw in a loss to Oklahoma on Saturday and the Cyclones are right on the edge of the tournament cutline. Wins over Oklahoma and Kansas State are nice, but this team has only five total top 100 wins.. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Baylor (16-12, 8-8; RPI: 61): After a buzzer beating loss to Kansas State on Saturday, Baylor is left with only win against a sure NCAA Tournament team (Oklahoma State) and eight losses against the RPI top 30. This looks like a season of lost opportunities. The good news is a game against Kansas remains on the schedule. Beating the Jayawks on March 9 might be a must win for the Bears to get into the field as an at-large. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

• After a big win over Duke on Thursday night, I have Virginia in my field for the first time all season  It is now time to forgive a team that lost three games early to CAA opponents. The Cavaliers have wins over Wisconsin, North Carolina, and North Carolina State to go along with their win over the Blue Devils. Virginia is now a #10 seed in my field.
• The other team that rocketed into my field over the past week was Tennessee. The Volunteers’ victory over shorthanded Florida on Tuesday night moved them into the final spot in my field.
• Saint Mary’s stays in my bracket despite not having the overall profile of a NCAA at-large team. How will the committee see the Gaels? Does it matter that they look like a NCAA Tournament team? Unless Gonzaga slips up in the WCC Tournament, this debate will go down to the wire on Selection Sunday (and maybe after it).
• I’ve argued many times this year that a crazy chain of events would have to take place for Gonzaga to get a No. 1 seed. Well, that crazy chain of events has happened. The Bulldogs are now No. 3 on my seed list. New Mexico, with 16 wins against the RPI top 100, is another unusual suspect to keep an eye on. Eleven teams can still get No. 1 seeds as of today.
• The Duke-Miami (FL) game on Saturday will be for a No. 1 seed. The Hurricanes are there for now, but that slot might as well say “Duke/Miami”. The winner will be there after Saturday.

LAST FOUR IN: Villanova, Temple, Saint Mary’s, Tennessee
FIRST FOUR OUT: Boise State, Mississippi, Alabama, Baylor

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

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As we’re now fewer than four weeks from Selection Sunday, it’s always fun to start speculating about resumes of teams on the bubble. On some of the days when Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) isn’t providing us with his updated Bubble Watch (Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons) or his weekly Bracketology (Fridays), he’ll give us an interesting comparison or two of teams that he finds difficult to distinguish. Today, he shows us just how tough it is to decide on No. 1 seeds.

I think if you threw 100 people in a room right now to decide on No. 1 seeds, most would agree that Indiana and Duke are clearly No. 1 seeds right now. My bracketology has reflected that for weeks, so let’s concede that as of today those two teams would be on the top line. The race for the third and fourth No.1  seeds is as tough, though, as I have ever seen it. So, today I have put up five blind resumes of potential No.1  seeds. All you have to do is vote below. Which two teams out of the five most deserve a No. 1 seed? Remember, don’t give the team names away and do not research the team names before voting. That takes the fun out of it!

The two teams are revealed after the jump…

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season. 

Bracket Math: Below there are 26 locks along the right column. Basically, that number means that if none of my “locks” clinches an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, there are only 11 at-large spots available. In most years, an average of around six “locks” win automatic bids, meaning there are 17 unclinched spots for the NCAA Tournament.  I also have seven teams in the “should be in” category, meaning I project their odds of getting an at-large bid at 70% or higher. If those teams ultimately get in, there are 10 total spots available for the teams you see below in my bubble watch.

LOCKS: 26
“SHOULD BE INS”: 7
TOTAL: 33 (minus six for projected auto bid winners = 27)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 10

• Odds Improving: Saint Louis, UNLV
• Odds Decreasing: Mississippi, Cincinnati, Baylor
• Locks That Are Trying My Patience: None

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF FEBRUARY 24, 2013

ACC: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

North Carolina (19-8, 9-5; RPI: 20): The Tar Heels have a second victory over the RPI top 25 after a win at home against N. C. State on Saturday. Although North Carolina still lacks for great wins, it still has a game against Duke to end the season. Plus, it would be crazy to imagine UNC missing the NCAA Tournament with a top 20 RPI. AT-LARGE ODDS: 65% Maryland (19-8, 7-7; RPI: 66): Every time Maryland seems to take a step forward, the Terps quickly take a step back. Remember the upset win against Duke? Maryland followed that by losing to Boston College but rebounded with a win against Clemson. Three of the last four are on the road, but they are all against some of the worst teams in the ACC (GT, WF, VIR). AT-LARGE ODDS: 45% Virginia (18-8, 8-5; RPI: 75): Virginia has six wins against the RPI top 100, but three losses to the miserable CAA. When you consider both, it makes for one of the more confusing resumes to figure out in the country. Virginia’s RPI has finally risen to a mediocre level, but it needs to keep rising. A game against Duke on Thursday will probably decide the Cavaliers’ at-large fate. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45% Other ACC teams with an at-large chance: None currently

Atlantic 10: Two Lock, Five Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Virginia Commonwealth (22-6, 10-3; RPI: 34): The Rams’ best victories are over Belmont and Memphis, and neither of those teams are locks to get at-large bids. VCU has five losses, all against the nation’s top 100. Butler plays at VCU on March 2, a huge game for the Rams. A win there will lock them up. AT-LARGE ODDS: 70% Temple (18-8, 7-5; RPI: 47): The Owls are the kind of team that makes a bracketologist’s job very difficult. A win over Syracuse looks fantastic, but losses to Canisius, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s, and Xavier cannot be ignored. Wins over Massachusetts, La Salle, and Charlotte have Temple on the good side of the NCAA Tournament bubble for now. Losing any of the next three would be devastating. A finale against VCU may end up deciding the Owls’ fate heading into the Atlantic 10 Tournament. AT-LARGE ODDS: 55% La Salle (19-7, 9-4; RPI: 36): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, two of the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. A loss to Temple on Thursday hurts but at least La Salle rebounded by winning at Rhode Island on Sunday. Duquesne and George Washington are next on the schedule before a monster game at red-hot Saint Louis. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Charlotte (18-7, 6-5; RPI: 54): It is never a good sign when as a bubble team you lose to two other teams from your same league by 17 and 20 in the same week. That’s what happened to Charlotte this week. First a 17-point defeat at Saint Louis (somewhat understandable considering how the Billikens are playing) followed by a whipping from Temple. Here’s the bad news: None of the remaining four games on this schedule will impress the committee with a win, but a loss in any of them will be very costly. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45% Massachusetts (16-9, 6-6; RPI: 59): Three straight losses to VCU, Temple, and St. Bonaventure have left Massachusetts on the bad side of the bubble. The Minutemen have to beat Butler at home March 7 to have any shot at an at-large. AT-LARGE ODDS: 20% Other Atlantic 10 teams with an at-large chance: Richmond (5%), Xavier (5%)

Big 12: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Oklahoma (18-8, 9-5; RPI: 21): Oklahoma caught Kansas at the right time, becoming the third straight Big 12 team to knock off the Jayhawks a couple of weeks back. That victory, coupled with wins over Oklahoma State and Baylor, leave the Sooners in good shape for an at-large bid. A win against Baylor on Saturday gave Oklahoma a sweep of the Bears. Three of the next four are against non-contenders so expect the Sooners to win 12 conference games and finish with a top 25 RPI. Those numbers would be enough, despite a lack of great wins. AT-LARGE ODDS: 65% Iowa State (19-8, 9-5; RPI: 51): Iowa State is on pace for an at-large with wins over Kansas State, Oklahoma, BYU, and a sweep of Baylor. The Cyclones have a challenging schedule the rest of the season, so they are still far from the clear. The next three are Kansas, at Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. AT-LARGE ODDS: 60% Baylor (16-11, 7-7; RPI: 63): Oh boy, the Bears are in trouble now. Baylor has one win against a sure NCAA Tournament team (Oklahoma State) and seven losses against the RPI top 30. This looks like a season of lost opportunities. The good news is games against Kansas State and Kansas still remain on the schedule. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Other Big 12 teams with an at-large chance: None currently

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

• Illinois continues to be the toughest team in the country to figure out. The media’s mock bracket came out last week and the Illini were a #5 seed. This team was once ranked in the nation’s top 15 teams and then it was 2-7 in conference with a game against No. 1 Indiana up next. The Illini won that one at the buzzer and four more games in a row to get to 7-7 in conference. Compare Illinois to the other teams around them in the bracket — they have five wins against the RPI top 26 and no longer have an under .500 conference record to bring them down. I agree with the media mock — Illinois is now a #5 seed.
• After Florida’s loss earlier this week against Missouri, the #1 seed line is again hard to figure out. Indiana and Miami (FL) are easy to pick given their overall resumes and Duke fits in nicely despite struggling somewhat without Ryan Kelly. The fourth #1 seed could be any number of teams. It looks like Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm have pegged Gonzaga as the final top seed, but I disagree. The Zags are going to have to rely on the eye test to get that high and in general most are decided by overall profile and not eye test. Gonzaga simply does not have the profile of a #1 seed.  Michigan State is the fourth top seed in my field based on the Spartans’ overall profile.
• The Mountain West is a mess. It looks like four teams are going to get a bid, with UNLV and Colorado State playing fantastic basketball over the last few weeks. New Mexico has a top five RPI and San Diego State held the Lobos to 33 points in a game earlier this year.  Putting those teams into the bracket is pretty tough, because there is not a lot of separation between them.
• Maryland was in my field after upsetting Duke, but the Terps are out again after falling to Boston College.  Temple is in after defeating La Salle. Indiana State has fallen out of serious at-large contention after a loss to Wichita State and six inexcusable losses on its resume.
• Kentucky and Mississippi are making things interesting in the SEC. Both teams are among my last four teams in. Missouri’s win over Florida practically assures the conference of at least getting two teams in.
• Minnesota and Cincinnati are sliding in my bracket, but I still think both teams are safe. The Gophers may not want to tempt fate, though. Tubby Smith’s team has been blown out in games against Iowa and Ohio State and is now two games under .500 in the Big Ten. Teams under .500 in conference play typically do not get in. Overall, 34 teams have gotten at-large bids over the last 43 years while being under .500 in conference play.

LAST FOUR IN: Colorado, Baylor, Saint Mary’s, Kentucky
FIRST FOUR OUT: Boise State, Alabama, Arizona State, Charlotte

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season. 

Bracket Math: Below there are 24 locks along the right column. Basically, that number means that if none of my “locks” clinch an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, there are only 13 at-large spots available. In most years, an average of around six “locks” win automatic bids, meaning there are 19 unclinched spots for the NCAA Tournament.  I also have nine teams in the “should be in” category, meaning I project their odds of getting an at-large bid at 70% or higher. If those teams ultimately get in, there are 10 total spots available for the teams you see below in my bubble watch.

LOCKS: 24
“SHOULD BE INS”: 9
TOTAL: 33 (minus six for projected auto bid winners = 27)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 10

• Odds Improving: UNLV, Missouri
• Odds Decreasing: Mississippi, Baylor, Minnesota
• Locks That Are Trying My Patience: None

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF FEBRUARY 20, 2013

ACC: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

North Carolina (18-8, 8-5; RPI: 24): North Carolina has only four wins over the RPI top 100 and only one against the top 50. Six of North Carolina’s eight losses are to teams in the top 20 of the RPI, but the other two (Virginia, Texas) might end up dooming Roy Williams’ squad on Selection Sunday. Getting a revenge win over the Cavaliers on Saturday kept the Heels above Virginia in the ACC pecking order. Games against N. C. State and Maryland remain on the schedule before hosting Duke in the finale. AT-LARGE ODDS: 60% Maryland (18-8, 6-7; RPI: 66): The Terps upset Duke on Saturday night, but followed that up by losing on Sunday to Boston College. The next three against Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest provide great chances for wins before a crucial bubble game with North Carolina on March 6. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Virginia (18-8, 8-5; RPI: 75): .The Cavaliers have six wins against the RPI top 100 and six losses to teams below the top 100. The Cavs are really banking on wins over Wisconsin, North Carolina, and North Carolina State. On Saturday, Virginia missed a chance for a bubble win over North Carolina and then lost to Miami in the closing seconds Tuesday. Duke comes to town February 28, following a must win home game against Georgia Tech. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45% Other ACC teams with an at-large chance: None currently

Atlantic 10: One Lock, Six Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Saint Louis (20-5, 9-2; RPI: 42): Saint Louis is getting hot at the right time. The Billikens are 10-2 in their last 12 games and have victories over Butler and New Mexico on their resume. They also just beat VCU by double digits. Plus, there is only one bad loss here (Rhode Island). This is looking more and more like a NCAA Tournament team.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 75% Virginia Commonwealth (21-6, 9-3; RPI: 36): The Rams’ best victories are over Belmont and Memphis, and neither of those teams are locks to get at-large bids. VCU has five losses, all against the nation’s top 100. Saturday’s win over Charlotte gave the Rams a third top 50 victory (barely, Charlotte is No. 49) and kept the 49ers well behind the Rams in the at-large order in the Atlantic Ten, but I think it is clear that Saint Louis has passed the Rams. The Billikens dominated VCU on Tuesday night. AT-LARGE ODDS: 70% Temple (17-8, 6-5; RPI: 48): The Owls are the kind of team that makes a bracketologist’s job very difficult. A win over Syracuse looks fantastic, but losses to Canisius, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s, and Xavier cannot be ignored. A one point win over Massachusetts was big on Saturday. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% La Salle (18-6, 8-3; RPI: 33): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. Next up is a huge bubble game against Temple on Thursday night. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Charlotte (18-7, 6-5; RPI: 49): Charlotte officially entered the bubble conversation on Wednesday night after a win against Butler. Unfortunately, the 49ers followed that up by losing to VCU. Next up is Temple on Saturday. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45% Massachusetts (16-9, 6-6; RPI: 59): Three straight losses to VCU, Temple, and St. Bonaventure have left Massachusetts on the bad side of the bubble. The next one against Dayton is huge or the Minutemen are off the Bubble Watch. AT-LARGE ODDS: 20% Other Atlantic 10 teams with an at-large chance: Richmond (5%), Xavier (5%), Saint Joseph’s (5%)

Big 12: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Oklahoma (17-8, 8-5; RPI: 18): Oklahoma caught Kansas at the right time, becoming the third straight Big 12 team to knock off the Jayhawks. That victory, coupled with wins over Oklahoma State and Baylor leave the Sooners in good shape for an at-large bid. An overtime loss to Oklahoma State stings, but doesn’t do a ton of damage. Next up is Baylor. AT-LARGE ODDS: 65% Iowa State (18-8, 8-5; RPI: 44): The Cyclones lost at Texas on Wednesday night, which pushes Iowa State to 2-7 on the road this year. Despite that awful loss, the sky isn’t falling here (yet). Iowa State has two wins against the RPI top 25 (Oklahoma, Kansas State) and six victories against the RPI top 100. Two bad losses — the one to the ‘Horns and one at Texas Tech earlier this year — will still be taken into consideration by the selection committee. Wednesday’s win over Baylor finished a sweep of the Bears. AT-LARGE ODDS: 60% Baylor (16-10, 7-6; RPI: 60): Baylor is in pretty bad shape right now. The Bears were swept by Iowa State and have lost to Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma. The only win over one of the other Big 12 NCAA competitors is a victory over Oklahoma State. Next up is a game at Oklahoma. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Other Big 12 teams with an at-large chance: None currently

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season. 

Bracket Math: Below there are 24 locks along the right column. Basically, that number means that if none of my “locks” clinch an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, there are only 13 at-large spots available. In most years, an average of around six “locks” win automatic bids, meaning there are 19 unclinched spots for the NCAA Tournament.  I also have seven teams in the “should be in” category, meaning I project their odds of getting an at-large bid at 70% or higher. If those teams ultimately get in, there are 12 total spots available for the teams you see below in my bubble watch.

LOCKS: 24
“SHOULD BE INS”: 7
TOTAL: 31 (minus six for projected auto bid winners = 25)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 12

• Odds Improving: Oklahoma State (now a lock), Illinois, Iowa (now on the BW), Maryland
• Odds Decreasing: Virginia, Missouri (now on the BW), Kentucky
• Locks That Are Trying My Patience: None (removed two locks this week — Missouri, Minnesota)

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF FEBRUARY 17, 2013

ACC: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

North Carolina (17-8, 7-6; RPI: 30): North Carolina has only four wins over the RPI top 100 and only one against the top 50. Six of North Carolina’s eight losses are to teams in the top 20 of the RPI, but the other two (Virginia, Texas) might end up dooming Roy Williams’ squad on Selection Sunday. Getting a revenge win over the Cavaliers on Saturday kept the Heels above Virginia in the ACC pecking order. AT-LARGE ODDS: 60%Maryland (18-7, 7-6; RPI: 62): Finally, some good news for Maryland fans. The Terps upset Duke on Saturday night and have moved right onto the bubble. The next four provide chances for wins with games against Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest in that stretch. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%Virginia (18-7, 8-4; RPI: 80): .The Cavaliers have six wins against the RPI top 100 and six losses to teams below the top 100. The Cavs are really banking on wins over Wisconsin, North Carolina, and North Carolina State. A loss on Saturday to North Carolina was big because it puts more pressure on Virginia to upset Miami, who remains undefeated in conference play, when the Cavaliers visit Miami (Fla.) on Tuesday night. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45% Other ACC teams with an at-large chance: None currently

Atlantic 10: One Lock, Six Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Virginia Commonwealth (21-5, 9-2; RPI: 35): The Rams’ best victories are over Belmont and Memphis, and neither of those teams are locks to get at-large bids. VCU has five losses, all against the nation’s top 100. Saturday’s win over Charlotte gave the Rams a third top 50 victory (barely, Charlotte is No. 49) and kept the 49ers well behind the Rams in the at-large order in the Atlantic Ten.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 65%Saint Louis (19-5, 8-2; RPI: 55): Saint Louis is getting hot at the right time. The Billikens are 10-2 in their last 12 games and have victories over Butler and New Mexico on their resume. Plus, there is only one bad loss here (Rhode Island). This is looking more and more like a NCAA Tournament team.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 60%Temple (17-8, 6-5; RPI: 51): The Owls are the kind of team that makes a bracketologist’s job very difficult. A win over Syracuse looks fantastic, but losses to Canisius, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s, and Xavier cannot be ignored. A one point win over Massachusetts was big on Saturday. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% La Salle (18-6, 8-3; RPI: 34): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. Next up is a huge bubble game against Temple on Thursday night. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Charlotte (18-6, 6-4; RPI: 60): Charlotte officially entered the bubble conversation on Wednesday night after a win against Butler. Unfortunately, the 49ers followed that up by losing to VCU. Next up is Temple on Saturday. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45% Massachusetts (16-8, 6-5; RPI: 54): Back to back losses to VCU and Temple have left the Minutemen on the bad side of the bubble. The next two are must wins (St. Bonvatenture, Dayton) but they won’t help Massachusetts’ overall profile. AT-LARGE HOPES: 25% Other Atlantic 10 teams with an at-large chance: Richmond (5%), Xavier (5%), Saint Joseph’s (5%)

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

• The top seed line might finally be taking shape again. Duke, Indiana, Florida, and Miami (FL) appear to have put a touch of separation between themselves and the trailing pack. The one team to watch out for is Michigan State. The Spartans destroyed Michigan on Tuesday night and moved into their highest seed position of the year (#2 seed).
• Creighton is driving me nuts. The Bluejays are now a #10 seed. At one point this year, I had Creighton as a #5 seed. Although it is hard to see them missing the field, Creighton has at least made it a possibility with its recent poor play.
• Colorado State is the team on the rise this week. The Rams won a big game on Wednesday night against San Diego State, which dropped the Aztecs from the #5 seed they were at before the game.  Illinois, who had barely been in the field a couple of weeks ago, is also rising fast now that the Illini are no longer five games under .500 in the Big Ten.
• If there’s one team nobody can agree on, it is Virginia. The Cavaliers’ RPI is finally becoming stronger (now in the top 80). This team has six wins against the RPI top 100, which would usually be enough to get in during a season where the bubble is so weak. The problem is that the Cavaliers also have six bad losses, including three to the awful CAA.
• Kentucky’s resume completely resets after Nerlens Noel’s ACL injury. If the Wildcats struggle down the stretch, they will not make the NCAA Tournament.
• Selection Committee chair Mike Bobinski held a teleconference on Wednesday and made a great point about putting First Four teams in Dayton (or close to Dayton) for potential Second/Third Round games. In my brackets going forward, I will try do that as well. Look for those teams to be in Dayton, Kansas City, Auburn Hills, or Lexington on Selection Sunday.
• I’m not sure what to do with Saint Mary’s just yet. The Gaels’ resume screams NIT right now and considering the only chances it had for a great win is now in the rear view mirror (0 for 2 vs. Gonzaga), the overall profile is not going to improve. However, everyone should keep in mind that the Selection Committee put Iona in last season’s field based off of the eye test and not on those Gaels’ overall profile. Could it happen again for another set of Gaels?
• In the bracket below, Indiana and Duke would play in the Final Four. I realize this is against my actual S-curve order, but at this point I think you could throw all four No. 1 seeds in a hat and pick them one through four. I’ll wait for a little more of the season to play out before I put an extra half hour into changing out the regional pairings so that the best two teams won’t play until the national title game.

LAST FOUR IN: Boise State, Indiana State, California, Saint Mary’s
FIRST FOUR OUT: Virginia, Stanford, Temple, St. John’s

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season. 

Bracket Math: Below there are 26 locks along the right column. Basically, that number means that if none of my “locks” clinch an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, there are only 11 at-large spots available. In most years, an average of around six “locks” win automatic bids, meaning there are 17 unclinched spots for the NCAA Tournament.  I also have six teams in the “should be in” category, meaning I project their odds of getting an at-large bid at 70% or higher. If those teams ultimately get in, there are 11 total spots available for the teams you see below in my bubble watch.

LOCKS: 26
“SHOULD BE INS”: 6
TOTAL: 32 (minus six for projected auto bid winners = 26)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 11

• Odds Improving: Oklahoma State, Memphis, Illinois, Colorado State
• Odds Decreasing: Florida State, North Carolina, Butler, Creighton, Wichita State, Mississippi, Kentucky
• Locks That Are Trying My Patience: None (removed two locks this week — Creighton, Wichita State)

Just to show that this year’s bubble is not that weak, look at this chart denoting top 50 wins for last season’s final teams into the NCAA Tournament:

As you can see, we might not be giving some of the bubble teams enough credit this year. Consider for instance that I just moved Wichita State out of lock status. The Shockers have three top 50 wins, more than all but one of the teams listed in the chart above. Remember, all of the teams in the chart were actually in the NCAA Tournament last season and one of them (NC State) made the Sweet Sixteen.  This is one of the reasons why you’ll see some of my bubble watch list teams as a lock that other bubble watches do not.

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF FEBRUARY 13, 2013

ACC: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

North Carolina (16-8, 6-6; RPI: 36): The Tar Heels’ resume is looking weaker and weaker. North Carolina has only three wins over the RPI top 100 and only one against the top 50. Six of North Carolina’s eight losses are to teams in the top 17 of the RPI, but the other two (Virginia, Texas) might end up dooming Roy Williams’ squad on Selection Sunday. It also doesn’t help that the Heels were not competitive against Miami this week. AT-LARGE ODDS: 55%Virginia (18-6, 8-3; RPI: 78): All of a sudden, Virginia’s RPI has risen almost 20 spots in the last week. The Cavaliers have six wins against the RPI top 100 and six losses to teams below the top 100. The Cavs are really banking on wins over Wisconsin, North Carolina, and North Carolina State and chances in their next two at the Tar Heels and at Miami. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Maryland (17-7, 5-6; RPI: 76): Maryland has been awful against good teams. The Terps have seven losses, but none of them have come against teams ranked outside the RPI top 100. Here’s the problem: Maryland’s RPI is sinking at rapid speed.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Other ACC teams with an at-large chance: None currently

Atlantic 10: One Lock, Seven Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Virginia Commonwealth (19-5, 7-2; RPI: 39): The Rams’ best victories are over Belmont and Memphis, and neither of those teams are locks to get at large bids. VCU has five losses, all against the nation’s top 100. The next two games are must wins, because losses to Massachusetts or George Washington would weigh down this resume.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 65%Saint Louis (18-5, 7-2; RPI: 55): Saint Louis is getting hot at the right time. The Billikens are 10-2 in their last 12 games and have victories over Butler and New Mexico on their resume. Plus, there is only one bad loss here (Rhode Island). This is looking more and more like a NCAA Tournament team.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 60% Temple (16-7, 5-4; RPI: 53): The Owls are the kind of team that makes a bracketologist’s job very difficult. A win over Syracuse looks fantastic, but losses to Canisius, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s, and Xavier cannot be ignored. A big comeback at Dayton on Saturday was gigantic in the large scheme of things. The Owls’ remaining Atlantic 10 schedule is pretty weak.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% La Salle (17-6, 7-3; RPI: 34): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. The next two games on the schedule are very winnable — at St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s — before a huge bubble game at Temple on February 21. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Charlotte (18-6, 6-4; RPI: 60): Charlotte officially entered the bubble conversation on Wednesday night after a win against Butler. The 49ers now have two wins against the RPI top 50, against the Bulldogs and over La Salle. Still, the 49ers have lost three of five, including a 28-point loss to George Washington. Next up is a big road game at St. Louis.   AT-LARGE ODDS: 40% Massachusetts (16-6, 6-3; RPI: 52): It was an up and down week for the Minutemen, who followed a one-point win against La Salle with a one-point loss to Charlotte. Massachusetts has done its part by winning of four of five games to set up a monster game with VCU on Thursday night. AT-LARGE HOPES: 30% Other Atlantic Ten teams with an at-large chance: Richmond (10%), Xavier (10%), Saint Joseph’s (5%)

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