RTC Bracketology: February 15 EditionPosted by Daniel Evans on February 15th, 2013
Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.
New in This Update:
- The top seed line might finally be taking shape again. Duke, Indiana, Florida, and Miami (FL) appear to have put a touch of separation between themselves and the trailing pack. The one team to watch out for is Michigan State. The Spartans destroyed Michigan on Tuesday night and moved into their highest seed position of the year (#2 seed).
- Creighton is driving me nuts. The Bluejays are now a #10 seed. At one point this year, I had Creighton as a #5 seed. Although it is hard to see them missing the field, Creighton has at least made it a possibility with its recent poor play.
- Colorado State is the team on the rise this week. The Rams won a big game on Wednesday night against San Diego State, which dropped the Aztecs from the #5 seed they were at before the game. Illinois, who had barely been in the field a couple of weeks ago, is also rising fast now that the Illini are no longer five games under .500 in the Big Ten.
- If there’s one team nobody can agree on, it is Virginia. The Cavaliers’ RPI is finally becoming stronger (now in the top 80). This team has six wins against the RPI top 100, which would usually be enough to get in during a season where the bubble is so weak. The problem is that the Cavaliers also have six bad losses, including three to the awful CAA.
- Kentucky’s resume completely resets after Nerlens Noel’s ACL injury. If the Wildcats struggle down the stretch, they will not make the NCAA Tournament.
- Selection Committee chair Mike Bobinski held a teleconference on Wednesday and made a great point about putting First Four teams in Dayton (or close to Dayton) for potential Second/Third Round games. In my brackets going forward, I will try do that as well. Look for those teams to be in Dayton, Kansas City, Auburn Hills, or Lexington on Selection Sunday.
- I’m not sure what to do with Saint Mary’s just yet. The Gaels’ resume screams NIT right now and considering the only chances it had for a great win is now in the rear view mirror (0 for 2 vs. Gonzaga), the overall profile is not going to improve. However, everyone should keep in mind that the Selection Committee put Iona in last season’s field based off of the eye test and not on those Gaels’ overall profile. Could it happen again for another set of Gaels?
- In the bracket below, Indiana and Duke would play in the Final Four. I realize this is against my actual S-curve order, but at this point I think you could throw all four No. 1 seeds in a hat and pick them one through four. I’ll wait for a little more of the season to play out before I put an extra half hour into changing out the regional pairings so that the best two teams won’t play until the national title game.
LAST FOUR IN: Boise State, Indiana State, California, Saint Mary’s
FIRST FOUR OUT: Virginia, Stanford, Temple, St. John’s
NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.
(full bracket after the jump)
Conference Roundup: Big East (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), Pac-12 (5), Mountain West (5), Atlantic 10 (4), SEC (4), ACC (4), Missouri Valley (3), West Coast (2)
S Curve Rankings:
- 1s: Duke, Indiana, Florida, Miami (FL)
- 2s: Michigan, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Arizona
- 3s: Kansas, Syracuse, New Mexico, Louisville
- 4s: Kansas State, Ohio State, Marquette, Georgetown
- 5s: Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Butler
- 6s: Wisconsin, Colorado State, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
- 7s: N. C. State, UCLA, Oregon, San Diego State
- 8s: Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, Memphis
- 9s: Wichita State, Colorado, UNLV, Iowa State
- 10s: Creighton, Kentucky, VCU, Baylor
- 11s: North Carolina, Saint Louis, La Salle, Mississippi
- 12s: St. Mary’s, Boise State, Indiana State, California, Belmont, Middle Tennessee
- 13s: Bucknell, Louisiana Tech, Stephen F. Austin, Akron
- 14s: Harvard, Valparaiso, Stony Brook, Florida Gulf Coast
- 15s: Western Illinois, Davidson, Montana, Long Beach State
- 16s: Niagara, Bryant, Northeastern, Southern, Charleston Southern, Norfolk State