Andrew Baker is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Sun and Southern conferences.

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Belmont Bruins  (23-6) (17-3)
2. ETSU Buccaneers  (20-10) (15-5)
3. Jacksonville Dolphins  (18-11) (14-6)
4. Stetson Hatters  (16-13) (12-8)
5. Lipscomb Bisons  (15-14) (11-9)
6. Mercer Bears  (14-17) (9-11)
7. Kennesaw State Fighting Owls  (13-16) (7-13)
8. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles  (11-20) (6-14)
9. Campbell Fighting Camels  (10-18) (6-14)
10. USC-Upstate Spartans  (9-21) (5-15)
11. UNF Ospreys  (4-25) (1-19)

What You Need to Know (WYN2K).

Non-Conference.  I know how far of a stretch this may seem, but all signs point to an improving Atlantic Sun Conference.  Some of you will ask, ‘How can a conference that has been mired in the bottom three of the conference RPI be improving?’  Well it can’t get much worse than 29th in the conference RPI ratings, but there is proof of improvement just over the last two seasons.  During the 2006-07 campaign the conference went 1-38 against the power conferences (including Mountain West and CUSA).  During 2007-08 the conference went 8-41 with three wins coming over SEC teams (Gardner-Webb over Kentucky, Belmont over Alabama, and ETSU over Georgia).  Look for the Atlantic Sun’s top five to play tougher against the power conference teams as all those teams are returning a great deal of talent and scoring.  The conference also improved upon their overall non-conference record at 46-108 (.299) last year, with 17 more OOC wins than the previous year (excluding non-D-I games).  Look for the Atlantic Sun to pull a few more upsets this fall.     

Conference.  There are two teams in the Atlantic Sun who are thinking about the three time defending champion Belmont Bruins with an incredible amount of rage.  The East Tennessee Bucs and Jacksonville Dolphins are both coming into this season with huge chips on their shoulders after losing to Belmont in last season’s Atlantic Sun Championship semifinals and finals respectively.  ETSU hates to be reminded of the circumstances, but for those that don’t know it’s worth watching the below video to see why they can’t wait for their games with Belmont.  Jacksonville was never competitive in the final and got completely dismantled by Belmont’s signature three-point attack.  Only seven teams are eligible for the A-Sun tournament this year out of the eleven in the conference, so expect a dogfight at the top to secure that first round bye into the semifinals.

Champion.  Belmont Bruins (#15 NCAA) – Many will think this pick is made because the Bruins are the three time champions.  This is partially correct.  The real reason is that the Bruins are 30-2 against conference opposition in February and March over the last three years including the conference tournament.  They simply find ways to win late in the season.  While Jacksonville and ETSU may have more talented squads, the Bruins make up the difference with superb coaching.  Belmont has the longest tenured coaching staff in the conference.  Rick Byrd has brought his program along from NAIA in 1996 and found a successful formula for winning in this league that has helped them become the first back to back to back champions the A-Sun has ever seen.  It also helps that the Bruins will return four starters (Dansby, Wicke, Renfroe, and Dotson) that have 42.1 PPG between them.  Wicke and Dotson have not had a season where they haven’t come out as A-Sun Champions.  However, it won’t be easy, as ETSU and Jacksonville won’t be far behind the defending champs. 

Others Considered.  With the departure of Gardner-Webb, the Atlantic Sun will be one big happy family again without the north and south divisions.  What does this mean?  Well it means teams like Jacksonville and Stetson will have to play more games against Belmont, Lispcomb, and East Tennessee, which for these teams usually ends in an L.  This is not to say that Jacksonville won’t be good.  They will be excellent, but they will have to play six games against these teams whereas they only played four against them last year, including the A-Sun Final against Belmont.  Jacksonville did not come up with a single W against those three squads.  Stetson didn’t fare much better, going 1-2 and losing to Garnder-Webb (North) in the A-Sun Quarters.  Both teams will have to expect to run at least 4-2 against these teams to even have a shot at the title.  Of the two, Jacksonville has the better shot.  The Dolphins return fours starters and most of their production.  If Stetson is to win then they will do it with defense.  Stetson ranked first in the conference last season limiting conference opponents to only 67.4 PPG and only 27.8% from beyond the arc.   

What can you say about East Tennessee State?  They had the semifinal game in their grasp to move on to the finals, but one technical and a subsequent missed front end of a 1 & 1 doomed their season (see video above).  Does ETSU have the talent?  Of course they do.  Kevin Tiggs (14.6 ppg & 5.6 rpg) and Courtney Pigram (15.8 ppg & 3.2 rpg) are two of the best players in the conference.  ETSU’s supporting cast will be bolstered by the arrival of 6’11” Seth Coy and 6’6” PG Adam Sollazzo, whom ETSU considers one of their finest prospects ever.  The presence of a big man should add some depth to the ETSU attack and make them a dangerous team come conference time.  The Bucs offense is a potent one, but where they struggled was in assists/turnovers (.802 A/TO Ratio).  Turning the ball over 20% of the time is just not going to cut it for any team that has aspirations of a trip to the Dance.  Can the Bucs break their duck against Belmont?  Maybe, but Coach Murray Bartow is going to have to find a way to get a W against the Bruins to get back to the promised land.

Important Games/Games to Watch:  Make sure you jot down any game between that involves Belmont and the following teams: ETSU, Jacksonville, and Lipscomb.  Belmont has an intense rivalry with Lipscomb being as that they are only two miles away on Belmont Boulevard and have always fought for attention in the saturated sports world of Nashville.  The Battle of the Boulevard has gone into overtime five times since Lipscomb’s move into the Atlantic Sun in 2003-04 including the 2005-06 Atlantic Sun Championship Game.  The ETSU v.  Jacksonville games should be great as well.  The most important game of the year of course is the A-Sun Tournament Championship Game in March as only one team in the Atlantic Sun is going to get to Dance.

• Atlantic Sun Championship Game  (03/07/09)

RPI Boosters.  The Atlantic Sun will be looking to improve on the eight wins they had over power conference opponents last year.  ETSU is also going to be involved in the Charleston Classic which should add some quality competition, so keep an eye out on their schedule as well.  Here are some dates to keep in mind for the top five:

Stetson @ Texas   (11/14/08)
Jacksonville @ Florida State  (11/15/08)
Jacksonville @ Georgetown  (11/17/08)
Stetson @ Florida State  (11/20/08)
Jacksonville @ Baylor  (11/24/08)
Belmont @ Pittsburgh (11/25/08)
• Jacksonville @ Georgia Tech  (11/28/08)
• Belmont @ Tennessee (12/20/08)
• Stetson @ Miami (FL)  (11/29/08)
• Jacksonville @ Ohio State  (12/17/08)
• Lipscomb @ NC State (12/20/08)
• Stetson @ Missouri   (12/20/08)
• Lipscomb @ Indiana  (12/28/08)
• Stetson @ Florida   (12/30/08)

Neat-O Stats.

The Curse of Two.  The Atlantic Sun has sent two teams to the dance only once.  In 1993-94, the College of Charleston and Central Florida broke through as 12 and 16 seeds respectively.  They both lost in the first round.  The only teams that were in the league when that happened were the Mercer Bears and the Stetson Hatters.  Both the Bears and the Hatters have seen only two winning seasons since.

University of Northern Fail.  The UNF Ospreys have had a tough life since joining Division I.  The Ospreys have only scrounged five Atlantic Sun wins in their first three seasons.  New members Florida Gulf Coast and USC-Upstate both equaled and in FGCU’s case surpassed them with six wins in their maiden seasons.  Coach Matt Kilcullen will most likely be feeling the heat this season if they don’t start seeing better results.

65-Team Era.  The A-Sun is 3-24 during the modern era, and despite Belmont’s ridiculously close 71-70 loss to Duke last year, they have simply not been able to get over the hump in the NCAA Tournament during their otherwise impressive run. 

Final Thoughts.  The Atlantic Sun should be more fun to watch than it has been in recent years.  Expect games between the top five schools to be knock-down, drag-outs.  A massive amount of talent returns for these schools and it should be fascinating to watch.  Don’t expect to see two bids out of this league unless someone wins a majority of their power OOC games and sweeps through the conference schedule only to lose in the final.  Is the Atlantic Sun Conference one on the rise?  Only if the Atlantic Sun can muster more OOC wins and their champion can again come close or win a NCAA Tournament game when March rolls around. 

Shamelessly cribbing from last spring’s very clever NBA catch phrase, we here at RTC will present to you the Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball as we gear up toward the start of the season a little over a month from now.  We’ll be bringing you players to watch for this season and moments to remember from last season, courtesy of the series of dump trucks, wires and effluvia known as YouTube. 

#25 – Where More Bob Knight in the Studio Happens

We’re less than 48 hrs from the quasi-official start of practice (at least at Kentucky, Illinois and a few others)… 

• The Class of 2009 will definitely be keeping an eye on Brandon Jennings’ experience in Europe this year.
• So we can have D2 games on tv, but getting some good mid-majors on the ESPN Full Court package is damn near impossible?
• The Big West signed a new deal with ESPN, but unless you get the U, you’re pretty much out of luck.  Note to ESPN – put ESPNU games on the Full Court Package this year!  Find a way to watch Fullerton’s Josh Akognon anyway this year – trust us.
• STF pegs Purdue and Oklahoma as its breakthrough teams in 2008-09, and Baylor and Tennessee as its tipping-point teams.
• Talent = Title Contender.  Thanks, Gary.  This was a fun idea, but we don’t really trust DraftExpress for evaluating NBA talent that far out, do you?
• The Big 12 coaches like Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas/Baylor in that order.  Over in the Horizon League, Butler is picked fifh?!?!
• Tom Crean to NCAA on further penalties:  Enough is Enough!  Meanwhile, Kyle Taber goes on record stating that Indiana will no-way, no-how, finish last in the B10 this year.
• One jewel from Goodman’s blog – wait, Georgetown recruited a white kid?
• Insert Rick Pitino isn’t walking through that door joke here. 
• Speculation on where the top prospects in the Class of 2009 will end up.
• Dickie V. should stay away from MLB Playoffs predictions.   
• We must say, as an unabashed fan of God Shammgod, this is completely awesome.
• One man’s take on the top NCAA program of all-time.

If you want to get a Carolina fan really riled up, we mean realllllly excited, just mention how many titles your favorite team would have won had it not been for some injury to some key player along the way.  Every team has a story or two like that in their attic somewhere.  Well, for Carolina fans, their key injuries that have ‘cost’ them national championships have taken almost mythic proportions.  Just mention the words “Phil Ford” and “1977” in the same sentence (referring to Ford’s injured elbow in the NCAA Tournament), or “Kenny Smith” and “1984” in another (referring to Smith’s broken wrist suffered in January of that year), or even “Derrick Phelps” and “1994” for good measure (referring to Phelps’ concussion in their NCAA loss against BC). 

UNC Fans Are Hoping This Doesn’t Last Too Long

Let’s hope that today’s news won’t be another chapter in those annals, as UNC released news that their Mr. Everything on Defense, senior guard/forward Marcus Ginyard, will miss as much as the next eight weeks after surgery for a stress fracture on his left foot.  From the UNC Athletics site:

Doctors inserted a screw in his fifth left metatarsal. The Alexandria, Va., native was Carolina’s defensive player of the year in each of the last two seasons, was a member of the all-tournament team at the 2008 ACC Championships and has started 55 of the 107 games he has appeared in as a Tar Heel. […] Ginyard started all 39 games last year, averaging a career-best 6.9 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. He made both the coaches’ and media ACC all-defensive teams and was UNC’s defensive player of the game 11 times, including the NCAA East Regional title-game win over Louisville. He scored in double figures in all three ACC Tournament victories.

In other words, not an insignificant piece of their overall puzzle.  The rangy 6’5 Ginyard can defend the 1-4 positions and played 70% of the available minutes last year (third behind Hansbrough and Ellington), using his length and quickness to harass opposing scorers all over the court. 

Should UNC fans be concerned that another Phil Ford or Kenny Smith situation is afoot?   Probably not to that level, but foot injuries do have a tendency to linger, seeing as how ankles like to twist and feet like to get mashed during the battles underneath.  We know UNC can score bunches of points, but their downfall last year was their relatively average defense (#90 in eFG% and #179 in TO%) – an inability to ensure stops when they absolutely needed them – and losing a defensive stalwart like a 100% Ginyard is cause for mild concern. 

The good news for Heel fans is that Ginyard should be healed completely by January according to doctors, but those fans smitten with the idea of an unbeaten regular season should dampen those hopes somewhat.  A November home game vs. Kentucky, a trip to Maui where Alabama, Notre Dame and/or Texas await, and a quasi-away game at Michigan St. in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge will put the Heels to the test before ACC play begins, especially if their best defender is still on the bench.   

Shamelessly cribbing from last spring’s very clever NBA catch phrase, we here at RTC will present to you the Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball as we gear up toward the start of the season a little over a month from now.  We’ll be bringing you players to watch for this season and moments to remember from last season, courtesy of the series of dump trucks, wires and effluvia known as YouTube. 

#26 – Where Next Year’s #1 Pick Happens

JC of HBCUSportsBlog is the RTC correspondent for the SWAC and MEAC conferences. 

Predicted order of finish:

1. Morgan State University  (22-11) (14-2)   
2. Hampton University  (18-12) (11-5)   
3. Norfolk State University  (16-15) (11-5)  
4. Delaware State University  (14-16) (10-6) 
5. N.C. A&T State University  (15-16) (9-7)   
6. Florida A&M University  (15-17) (9-7)   
7. Coppin State University  (16-21) (7-9)   
8. South Carolina State University   (13-20) (7-9)     
9. Bethune-Cookman University  (11-21) (5-11)  
10. Howard University  (6-26) (3-13)  
11. Maryland – Eastern Shore  (4-28) (2-14) 

What You Need to Know (WYN2K). The MEAC is not a conference you want to sleep on this year. Two teams from the conference earned automatic bids to postseason play last year, with the conference champion Coppin State Eagles making it to the play-in game of the Big Dance, and regular-season MEAC champion Morgan State appearing in the NIT. With a loaded stock of Division I transfers across the board, in-conference parity and out-of-conference guaranteed games against power-conference opponents, the MEAC will be among the toughest mid-major conferences in the country this season.

Predicted Champion. Morgan State (#16 Seed NCAA).  While the MEAC is usually relegated to play-in purgatory (four of the last five years), the Morgan State Bears could reverse the 16-seed blues this season. In several mid-major polls last season, the Bears were ranked in the Top 25 as a result of strong showings against the Big East (4-pt loss at UConn) and ACC (4-pt loss at Miami). Todd Bozeman is the reigning MEAC Coach of the Year, and returns two key starters in All-MEAC forward Marquise Kately and sharpshooting guard Reggie Holmes.

Others Considered. Norfolk State could surprise many in the conference this season. An early season road victory against the Richmond Spiders last year served notice of their depth and offensive talent, and they have several seniors returning. Despite the transfer of forward Matt Pilgrim, Hampton is also a team to watch because of forward Theo Smalling, who will likely be among the conference leaders in rebounding and minutes played this season.

Games to Watch. The MEAC doesn’t have many games with national intrigue, but in conference, these contests will be a litmus test for post-season mettle.

• Morgan State vs. Coppin State (12.6.08) – In the first game since the Eagles defeated the Bears to capture the conference championship and advance to the NCAA Tournament, the intensity of this Charm City rivalry will heighten one of Baltimore’s signature athletic contests.
• Hampton vs. Virginia Commonwealth (12.27.08) – Could be a bracket-busting test for an NCAA tournament-tested program in VCU. A win for the Pirates contributes to state bragging rights and boosts recruiting efforts at home.

RPI Booster Games. Several MEAC teams are participating in tournaments and classics, which present the best opportunities for upset wins.

• Hampton @ Virginia (12.23.08)
• Morgan State @ Utah (Glen Wilkes Classic) (11.22.08)
• NC A&T @ Akron (12.13.08)

Odds of Multiple NCAA Bids. Nah.

Neat-o Stat. Of the top ten individual scoring leaders in the MEAC last year, only Howard’s Eugene Myatt will be playing this season. Morgan’s Jamar Smith, Coppin State’s Tywain McKee, Bethune-Cookman’s Dewayne Pettus, and Delaware State’s Roy Bright were all seniors, while UMES’ Ed Tyson is academically ineligible for his senior season.

65-Team Era. The MEAC is responsible for two of the only four #15 over #2 seed wins in history,  #15 Hampton over #2 Iowa St. in 2002, and #15 Coppin St. over #2 South Carolina in 1997.  The only other win of the era was in 2004 in the PiG over Lehigh. 

Final Thought. At least the MEAC isn’t the SWAC, right?

Shamelessly cribbing from last spring’s very clever NBA catch phrase, we here at RTC will present to you the Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball as we gear up toward the start of the season a little over a month from now.  We’ll be bringing you players to watch for this season and moments to remember from last season, courtesy of the series of dump trucks, wires and effluvia known as YouTube. 

#27 – Where DunkYouVeryMuch Happens

Gary Parrish had an interesting story today about an incoming Tennessee recruit named Renaldo Woolridge, a 6’8 top 100 power forward from Southern California who has an impressive bloodline – his dad happens to be former Notre Dame All-American (1981) and longtime NBA journeyman, Orlando Woolridge.

(photo credit:  MySpace)

The story goes into considerable detail as to the younger Woolridge’s burgeoning rap career, replete with the obligatory MySpace page and stage-friendly moniker, The Answer aka Swiperboy.  And yeah, we agree with Parrish when he says that it’s obvious after listening to the tracks that this kid has a little more talent than your average hoopster/rapper wannabe.

What really piqued our interest, though, was when we listened to the song, “Baller Vol,” which quite clearly pays homage to Woolridge’s new school and teammates (listen below).  We may not have caught them all, but we heard players Scotty Hopson, Wayne Chism, Tyler Smith, JP Prince and coach Bruce Pearl mentioned.

Not to be a total wet blanket here, because this seems like just a kid having some fun – Woolridge even mentioned that UT may use his track for player introductions this year – but how is this not an NCAA violation?  Wouldn’t Wooldridge’s production company, Swiperboyz Entertainment, be considered a commercial enterprise?  And if so, aren’t there fairly explicit rules as to the limitations or usage of the university’s logo and likeness?  For example, look at Rule 12.5.1.3(c) from the NCAA Rules & Regulations:

But on Woolridge’s MySpace site, it’s obvious that he’s a Vol and even includes a conspicuous image of him flexing while wearing a UT jersey.

(ed. note – this picture has since been removed from Woolridge’s MySpace page.  Coincidence?  photo credit: MySpace)

And what about the shout-outs to all of his current teammates on the song?  Per Rule 12.5.2.2, did Woolridge get express permission to use their names on his product, and if not, does it matter that UT probably hasn’t taken steps to remediate that likely omission?

Given what we wrote last week about the NCAA’s worthless investigative arm, none of this probably matters because there are bigger fish for the brass to fry at Prairie View and UC Davis, but coming from someone who remembers how Indiana’s Steve Alford found himself in hot water for simply doing a charity calendar photo two decades ago, we have to wonder how all of Woolridge’s UT-centric rapping reconciles with the NCAA’s rulebook.

Shamelessly cribbing from last spring’s very clever NBA catch phrase, we here at RTC will present to you the Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball as we gear up toward the start of the season a little over a month from now.  We’ll be bringing you players to watch for this season and moments to remember from last season, courtesy of the series of dump trucks, wires and effluvia known as YouTube. 

#28 – Where Ellington for Three Happens

JC of HBCUSportsBlog is the RTC correspondent for the SWAC and MEAC conferences. 

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Alabama State  (20-11) (15-3)   
2. Jackson State  (14-20) (10-8)   
3. Miss. Valley State  (17-16) (12-6)   
4. Southern  (11-19) (9-9)   
5. Alabama A&M  (14-15) (11-7)  
6. Arkansas-Pine Bluff  (13-18) (8-10)  
7. Grambling State  (7-19) (7-11)  
8. Prairie View A&M  (8-22) (6-12)
9. Texas Southern  (7-25) (6-12)  
10. Alcorn State  (7-24) (6-12)   

What You Need to Know (WYN2K). The SWAC Conference has long been the laughingstock of Division I basketball. They are the perennial #16 seed in the national tournament (nine straight years), and are generally viewed as a warm-up for the number one team in the nation in their quest for the Final Four.  Last year the league champion, Mississippi Valley St., set a record for worst FG% (19.7%) in an NCAA Tournament game en route to 29 total points against UCLA.   The SWAC is a casualty of out-of-conference guaranteed games, limited resources and a sports audience that knows it by its alias, “Who is North Carolina playing in the first game?”

Predicted Champion. Alabama State University (#16 Seed NCAA). The Hornets finished with the SWAC’s regular-season championship, a closer-than-expected loss in the opening round of the N.I.T., and a whole lotta media coverage for their center, Chief Kickingstallionsims.

Others Considered.  Jackson State University returns two of the conference’s top-ten leading scorers in Grant Maxey and Darrion Griffin, and  Southern University was the SWACs best three-point shooting team and among its best defensive units.

Games to Watch. No reason to pretend that SWAC regular season games have national interest, but here’s a few contests that basketball purists will enjoy.

• Jackson State vs. Alabama State (01.3.09). It’s the rematch from the 2008 SWAC tournament, with Alabama State hosting the Tigers who upset them in the semi-final.
• Southern vs. Mississippi Valley State (02.16.09). If the Jaguars continue their hot-shooting ways from the 07-08 season, this game could have tournament seeding implications for the favored Delta Devils.

RPI Booster Games. Arizona State had a close call in the 2008 N.I.T. against Alabama State, and while it won’t be close at home against the Delta Devils, you can’t blame a guy for trying.

• Mississippi Valley State @ Arizona State (11.14.08)

Odds of Multiple NCAA Bids. Not gonna happen. No need to pretend.

Neat-o Stat.  Joel Bosh, a standout forward for the Alabama State Hornets last season, was invited to participate with the Toronto Raptors summer league team. If the name sounds familiar, it should be; he is the brother of NBA all-star and gold medal Olympian Chris Bosh.

65-Team Era.  The SWAC is 4-28 all-time in the NCAA Tourney, and the last time a SWAC team won a game was in 1993, when Southern University defeated Georgia Tech.

Final Thought. The way to be a fan of SWAC basketball is not to look solely at wins and losses, but to look at the historical place of the conference and how hard they are working to get better. Or, you could just not watch at all.