On some of the days when Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) isn’t providing us with his updated Bubble Watch or his weekly Bracketology, he’ll give us an interesting comparison of some teams that he finds difficult to distinguish.

Which of the following two teams most deserve a bid?

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

• New in This Update:
  • Saturday was one of the busiest days of the year. Florida Gulf Coast, Harvard, and Belmont clinched NCAA Tournament spots by clinching automatic bids.
  • Kansas is off the No. 1 line after losing badly to Baylor. Georgetown replaces the Jayhawks after routing Syracuse on Saturday, although it was a close comparison between the Hoyas and Cardinals.
  • Florida is off the No. 2 line after losing to Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Wildcats move into my Last Four In after the come from behind win to defeat the Gators.
  • It seemed like more underdogs won their favorites on Saturday. New Mexico fell off the No. 2 line after losing to Air Force late.  Minnesota continued to slide after losing an ugly game to Purdue. Tennessee knocked off Missouri, Oklahoma lost to TCU, NC State fell at Florida State, and Utah dominated Oregon.

LAST FOUR IN: Colorado, Kentucky, La Salle, Saint Mary’s (last team in)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Virginia (first team out), Mississippi, Alabama, Baylor
NEXT FOUR OUT: Southern Miss, Iowa, Maryland, Xavier

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

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On some of the days when Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) isn’t providing us with his updated Bubble Watch or his weekly Bracketology, he’ll give us an interesting comparison or two of teams that he finds difficult to distinguish.

TEAM A

• OVERALL RECORD: 20-10
• RPI: 70
• SOS: 134
• BPI: 43
• SAGARIN: 29
• KENPOM: 21
• RECORD VS RPI TOP 25: 2-2
• RECORD VS RPI TOP 50: 4-2
• RECORD VS RPI TOP 100: 7-3

TEAM B

• OVERALL RECORD: 26-5
• RPI: 34
• SOS: 124
• BPI: 32
• SAGARIN: 30
• KENPOM: 19
• RECORD VS RPI TOP 25: 0-2
• RECORD VS RPI TOP 50: 1-2
• RECORD VS RPI TOP 100: 5-3

(teams revealed after the jump)

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

• As the start of major conference tournaments near, the bubble is starting to take shape. In my Bubble Watch column on Friday, I added Creighton, North Carolina, and Illinois to my growing list of NCAA Tournament locks. In other words, this is a scary time for bubble teams.
• Kentucky is one of the more interesting bubble cases this season. The Wildcats have not been the same without Nerlens Noel, considering they lost to Tennessee by 30 and fell to Georgia on Thursday night. The ‘Cats probably need a win against Florida on Saturday to get into the field as an at-large, barring a trip to the SEC Tournament final.
• Meanwhile, Tennessee survived at Auburn on Wednesday to stay in my field. Virginia wasn’t as lucky against Boston College, but the Cavaliers stay in my field as the last team in. Virginia has six good wins and seven bad losses. If a couple of teams lose in their conference tournaments (Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Creighton), the Cavaliers and teams around them on my S-curve will be sweating on Selection Sunday.
• The race for No. 1 seeds continues to be a headache. Gonzaga appears locked in, barring a loss in the WCC Tournament. If the Bulldogs lose, I’m not sure what the committee will do with them. Indiana and Duke also appear to be No. 1 seeds right now, with the Blue Devils the strongest of the No.1  profiles. Duke hasn’t just been good with Ryan Kelly, they’ve been undefeated. Indiana has hit a rocky stretch, but the Hoosiers still have the look and overall profile of a No. 1 seed. Georgetown’s loss to Villanova on Wednesday makes me more confident that Kansas is the final No. 1 seed. Louisville is the team to watch. The Cardinals are on the move and Florida isn’t too far behind (only two losses when completely healthy).
• I will be updating this bracket more frequently during the upcoming week, so be sure to stay tuned for that. Eight days before Selection Sunday, I’m waiting for the madness to begin. Saturday should be a great start.

BID STEALERS TO WATCH:

• Murray State (OVC — Belmont is a bubble team)
• Indiana State & Illinois State (MVC — Creighton & Wichita State are probably in)
• Loyola Marymount & BYU/San Diego (WCC – Gonzaga is a lock. Saint Mary’s may be in either way).

This file was set for publishing before the BYU-San Diego game went final on Friday night.

LAST FOUR IN: Saint Mary’s, La Salle, Tennessee, Virginia
FIRST FOUR OUT: Mississippi, Alabama, Baylor, Kentucky
NEXT FOUR OUT: Arizona State, Southern Miss, Providence, Maryland

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

• The No. 1 seeds are far from decided at this point. Michigan State‘s loss to Michigan on Sunday all but ended the Spartans chances, barring a Big Ten tournament championship. Both Michigan teams are now No. 3 seeds.
• Duke is also a No. 1 seed after holding off Miami (FL) on Saturday.

LAST FOUR IN: Saint Mary’s, Villanova, Tennessee, Iowa State
FIRST FOUR OUT: Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Maryland

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

• After a big win over Duke on Thursday night, I have Virginia in my field for the first time all season  It is now time to forgive a team that lost three games early to CAA opponents. The Cavaliers have wins over Wisconsin, North Carolina, and North Carolina State to go along with their win over the Blue Devils. Virginia is now a #10 seed in my field.
• The other team that rocketed into my field over the past week was Tennessee. The Volunteers’ victory over shorthanded Florida on Tuesday night moved them into the final spot in my field.
• Saint Mary’s stays in my bracket despite not having the overall profile of a NCAA at-large team. How will the committee see the Gaels? Does it matter that they look like a NCAA Tournament team? Unless Gonzaga slips up in the WCC Tournament, this debate will go down to the wire on Selection Sunday (and maybe after it).
• I’ve argued many times this year that a crazy chain of events would have to take place for Gonzaga to get a No. 1 seed. Well, that crazy chain of events has happened. The Bulldogs are now No. 3 on my seed list. New Mexico, with 16 wins against the RPI top 100, is another unusual suspect to keep an eye on. Eleven teams can still get No. 1 seeds as of today.
• The Duke-Miami (FL) game on Saturday will be for a No. 1 seed. The Hurricanes are there for now, but that slot might as well say “Duke/Miami”. The winner will be there after Saturday.

LAST FOUR IN: Villanova, Temple, Saint Mary’s, Tennessee
FIRST FOUR OUT: Boise State, Mississippi, Alabama, Baylor

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

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As we’re now fewer than four weeks from Selection Sunday, it’s always fun to start speculating about resumes of teams on the bubble. On some of the days when Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) isn’t providing us with his updated Bubble Watch (Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons) or his weekly Bracketology (Fridays), he’ll give us an interesting comparison or two of teams that he finds difficult to distinguish. Today, he shows us just how tough it is to decide on No. 1 seeds.

I think if you threw 100 people in a room right now to decide on No. 1 seeds, most would agree that Indiana and Duke are clearly No. 1 seeds right now. My bracketology has reflected that for weeks, so let’s concede that as of today those two teams would be on the top line. The race for the third and fourth No.1  seeds is as tough, though, as I have ever seen it. So, today I have put up five blind resumes of potential No.1  seeds. All you have to do is vote below. Which two teams out of the five most deserve a No. 1 seed? Remember, don’t give the team names away and do not research the team names before voting. That takes the fun out of it!

The two teams are revealed after the jump…

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

• Illinois continues to be the toughest team in the country to figure out. The media’s mock bracket came out last week and the Illini were a #5 seed. This team was once ranked in the nation’s top 15 teams and then it was 2-7 in conference with a game against No. 1 Indiana up next. The Illini won that one at the buzzer and four more games in a row to get to 7-7 in conference. Compare Illinois to the other teams around them in the bracket — they have five wins against the RPI top 26 and no longer have an under .500 conference record to bring them down. I agree with the media mock — Illinois is now a #5 seed.
• After Florida’s loss earlier this week against Missouri, the #1 seed line is again hard to figure out. Indiana and Miami (FL) are easy to pick given their overall resumes and Duke fits in nicely despite struggling somewhat without Ryan Kelly. The fourth #1 seed could be any number of teams. It looks like Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm have pegged Gonzaga as the final top seed, but I disagree. The Zags are going to have to rely on the eye test to get that high and in general most are decided by overall profile and not eye test. Gonzaga simply does not have the profile of a #1 seed.  Michigan State is the fourth top seed in my field based on the Spartans’ overall profile.
• The Mountain West is a mess. It looks like four teams are going to get a bid, with UNLV and Colorado State playing fantastic basketball over the last few weeks. New Mexico has a top five RPI and San Diego State held the Lobos to 33 points in a game earlier this year.  Putting those teams into the bracket is pretty tough, because there is not a lot of separation between them.
• Maryland was in my field after upsetting Duke, but the Terps are out again after falling to Boston College.  Temple is in after defeating La Salle. Indiana State has fallen out of serious at-large contention after a loss to Wichita State and six inexcusable losses on its resume.
• Kentucky and Mississippi are making things interesting in the SEC. Both teams are among my last four teams in. Missouri’s win over Florida practically assures the conference of at least getting two teams in.
• Minnesota and Cincinnati are sliding in my bracket, but I still think both teams are safe. The Gophers may not want to tempt fate, though. Tubby Smith’s team has been blown out in games against Iowa and Ohio State and is now two games under .500 in the Big Ten. Teams under .500 in conference play typically do not get in. Overall, 34 teams have gotten at-large bids over the last 43 years while being under .500 in conference play.

LAST FOUR IN: Colorado, Baylor, Saint Mary’s, Kentucky
FIRST FOUR OUT: Boise State, Alabama, Arizona State, Charlotte

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

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As we’re now fewer than four weeks from Selection Sunday, it’s always fun to start speculating about resumes of teams on the bubble. On some of the days when Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) isn’t providing us with his updated Bubble Watch (Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons) or his weekly Bracketology (Fridays), he’ll give us an interesting comparison or two of teams that he finds difficult to distinguish. Today, he offers up a couple of bubble teams that have made considerable news in the past week as to their placement (in or out). Here are their blind resumes:

Team A

• Record: 17-10
• Conference Record:  8-6 (major conference)
• RPI: 56
• SOS: 36
• BPI: 63
• Sagarin: 48
• KenPom: 56
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-6
• Record vs. RPI top 100: 6-9
• Record vs. teams below top 100 in RPI: 10-1

Team B

• Record: 16-9
• Conference Record:  8-5 (major conference)
• RPI: 54
• SOS: 37
• BPI: 52
• Sagarin: 50
• KenPom: 60
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-5
• Record vs. RPI top 100: 4-9
• Record vs. teams below top 100 in RPI: 12-0

The two teams are revealed after the jump…

Read the rest of this entry »

As we’re now fewer than four weeks from Selection Sunday, it’s always fun to start speculating about resumes of teams on the bubble. On some of the days when Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) isn’t providing us with his updated Bubble Watch (Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons) or his weekly Bracketology (Fridays), he’ll give us an interesting comparison or two of teams that he finds difficult to compare. Today, he offers up a couple of bubble teams that have made considerable news in the past week as to their placement (in or out). Here are their blind resumes:

Team A

• Record: 18-7
• Conference Record:  8-4 (major conference)
• RPI: 77
• SOS: 181
• BPI: 45
• Sagarin: 35
• KenPom: 19
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-1
• Record vs. RPI top 100: 6-1
• Record vs. teams below top 100 in RPI: 12-6

Team B

• Record: 17-8
• Conference Record:  8-4 (major conference)
• RPI: 44
• SOS: 50
• BPI: 39
• Sagarin: 20
• KenPom: 29
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 0-4
• Record vs. RPI top 100: 5-8
• Record vs. teams below top 100 in RPI: 12-0

The two teams are revealed after the jump…

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