We’re now five full weeks into the 2012-13 college basketball season, plenty of time to get a read on some of the teams that everyone thought was better or worse than their preseason projections. So how does Las Vegas view it? Check the following list, which shows a number of popular schools with three correlated columns: each school’s preseason odds to win the national title (“Preseason”); its current odds to win the national title (“1st Qtr”); and the plus/minus in the interim. Note that we’ve normalized these odds to add up to 100% so that you’re viewing true odds relative to all of the other teams vying for the title this year. All odds were taken from TheGreek.com.
One other editing note is that these odds were taken and calculated prior to Saturday’s action (i.e., Butler’s upset win over Indiana and Arizona’s win over Florida).
The fields and arenas of play were more reserved than usual this weekend as Americans’ hearts remained heavy in the aftermath of the inexplicable and incomprehensible massacre that took place in Newtown, Connecticut, Friday morning. Moments of silence were observed at games from coast to coast for the fallen children, teachers and administrators whose lives where brutally taken from them much too early. Here at RTC, we generally try to stay above the partisan bickering that passes for national political discourse these days, but enough is enough — whatever we’re doing with respect to national firearm policy isn’t working. We don’t claim to have a reasoned and fair solution to this problem, but our leaders who presumably work for we, the people, need to figure out something better, and now.
The good people of the state of Connecticut of course are feeling more pain and heartache than anywhere else during this tragedy, and Kevin Ollie‘s Huskies will return to the court tonight with that burden in tow (with videos). It’s a bit more than an hour’s drive southwest from Storrs to Newtown, and many of the UConn players expressed their grief in terms of the connection to their own family members and loved ones: Tyler Olander’s mother is a sixth-grade teacher; Kevin Ollie has a school-age daughter; Shabazz Napier has a two-year old niece whom he adores. The school plans on wearing some sort of commemorative patch on its uniforms honoring the victims — perhaps as soon as in tonight’s game against Maryland-Eastern Shore — and the team will travel to Newtown soon to lend some additional support for the townspeople. As the most high-profile team in the Nutmeg State, these are necessary moves by the Husky program.
Sigh… on to the rest of the weekend’s news. In a completely expected announcement Saturday, the so-called Catholic 7 Big East schools voted unanimously to leave the conference and set out on its own course as a basketball-centric league. Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Providence and DePaul have decided that the race to the bottom that its football-playing peers have forced them into during all this conference realignment madness is no longer palatable. Apparently, the RPI anchor that schools like Tulane and East Carolina represented was the final straw. Now, the details on the when and how the exit of these seven universities will happen needs to be settled, but the other major elephant in the room is which schools the New Big East will target to fill out its roster — early reports suggest that Xavier, Dayton, Creighton, Butler and Gonzaga — all or some of them — are on the wish list. Regardless of who this new conference grabs, it’s nice to finally see proud basketball schools pushing back against the football behemoth.
While on the subject of Butler, Brad Stevens’ plucky squad knocked off the nation’s top-ranked team (per the AP/Coaches, not RTC) on Saturday afternoon at the Crossroads Classic, engendering another round of breathlessness (ourselves included) at just how excellent a head coach the 36-year old wunderkind already is. In a game that was must-watch television throughout, the final outcome hinged on a floater from a sophomore walk-on named Alex Barlow who had made a grand total of six buckets all season. The player who became a Bulldog so that he could apprentice under Stevens with a goal of becoming a head coach, added himself to the lore of a giant-killing school that has already scalped hoops titans North Carolina and Indiana this year. The overtime victory was Butler’s first ever win over a #1 team, and as the Indy Star‘s David Woods writes, it represents just another chapter in a program’s history where reality is better than fiction. Seriously.
The Syracuse Post-Standard is reporting additional details regarding star guard Michael Carter-Williams’ odd situation last Sunday where people tweeted pictures of him appearing to be under arrest at a local mall. According to sources with knowledge of the situation, MCW was detained and fined after a shoplifting incident at a Lord & Taylor store where he allegedly placed a Polo Ralph Lauren bathrobe and pair of gloves valued at around $120 into his backpack and walked out of the store. He was stopped by loss prevention staff and offered a deal where he could avoid arrest by paying a “civil demand,” wherein he could pay five times the value of the merchandise up to $500 and walk away. One source stated that Carter-Williams paid the fine with his credit card and left the scene freely. After Saturday night’s game versus Canisius (where MCW went for 12/14 assts), Jim Boeheim had little else to say about the matter other than to say that everyone “is satisfied with the result.”
Some thoughts from Saturday night’s Creighton-California game in Berkeley…
Three Key Takeaways.
Doug McDermott Is As Good As Advertised. This was the first time we’d actually seen him play in person and, needless to say, we came away very impressed. Even though he’s clearly not an elite athlete, he makes up for it because there’s no wasted motion whatsoever in McDermott’s game. He keeps things simple — no excessive dribbling, no exaggerated movements, just catch-and-shoot when the opportunity presents itself. More often than not, the ball goes in the hole. In McDermott’s last three games including this win, he’s averaging 30.3 PPG while knocking down splits of 58%/63%/86% from the field, three and foul line respectively. The scary part is that those numbers aren’t terribly far off of his season averages (23.7 PPG on 55%/53%/87%). He may have started out slowly this season compared to his sophomore campaign, but he’s making a great push again at a NPOY candidacy.
The Frustrating Game of Allen Crabbe. Allen Crabbe continued a career history of shrinking away from the spotlight in big games. In last year’s First Four NCAA Tournament game, for example, he shot 3-of-14 in a horrific 10-point performance. Tonight he ended the game with 14 points and seven rebounds, but he started by making only one of his first 14 attempts, ended with a 6-of-26 nightmare, and much of that falls on his lack of aggressiveness and lack of understanding that he held a distinct size and athletic mismatch over his Creighton defender. The problem is that Cal’s offense depends almost entirely on its guard scoring of Crabbe (21.9 PPG) and Justin Cobbs (17.8 PPG) and when these two struggle — Cobbs shot an ok 8-of-17 for 18 points — the Bears simply don’t have enough offensive answers to challenge good teams.
Scouting Creighton the Rest of the Way. Creighton’s ceiling with the right match-ups is probably the Sweet Sixteen, perhaps a round further if they play a Cinderella in that round. Even with McDermott’s scoring punch, it was apparent that the Bluejays have more offensive weapons than him especially given all the attention defenses throw his way. Grant Gibbs (10 points) and Jahenns Manigat (11 points) both had quiet but sneakily effective games when McDermott was on the bench of otherwise preoccupied. Gregory Echinique ended up with a double-double (10/11). The one major concern we still have with the Bluejays is its softish defense, but it is clearly better than last year’s mediocre performance and it was apparent that they’ve been really working on it. Crabbe was as frustrated a player as we’ve ever seen him, and much of that was due to the Creighton defensive strategy.
Star of the Game. Doug McDermott, Creighton. Really no other choice here, as McDermott picked his spots on the inside early but drifted out beyond the three-point line as the game progressed to find his 34 points. It didn’t matter where he was located on the floor, though, because Cal couldn’t guard him wherever he was. Eighteen exciting first half points were followed by a more pedestrian 16-point second half, but unlike his counterpart on the Cal side, McDermott expertly played his mismatches and made the Bears defense pay for its mistakes (and there were plenty). He’s well on his way to another NPOY candidacy this season.
Quotable.
“If that Catholic league goes down, I’m sure we’d love to do it.” – Creighton’s Doug McDermott after the game, referring to the New Big East.
“We’re not good enough yet.” – California head coach Mike Montgomery, referring to what he’s learned about his team over the last couple of weeks (losses to Wisconsin, UNLV, and Creighton).
We’re back this Friday with a slightly longer-form RTC Podblast, as Shane Connolly (@sconnolly114) hosts a discussion regarding the Catholic Seven’s breaking away from the Big East and many of the corresponding feelings we have about it. We also look forward to a jam-packed and presumably very entertaining Saturday worth of games.
Remember that our full podcasts (roughly 45 minutes to an hour long) will publish on Tuesdays during the season, while our shorter (~15-20 minutes) podblasts will drop on Fridays with a quick look at the intervening week’s worth of news and action. Feel free to jump around using the outline below.
0-12:50 – Big East crumbling
12:50-15:10 – Crossroads Classic preview
15:10-18:06 – West coast teams looking to bounce back from tough losses at home (Creighton @ Cal, K-State @ Gonzaga)
18:06-19:14 – Coaches vs former teams (Alabama @ VCU, Michigan vs West Virginia – WARNING: Nothing is wrong with the audio, Randy actually passed on a chance to hype the Wolverines)
19:14-20:37 – Louisville @ Memphis
20:37-24:07 – Florida @ Arizona
We welcome any and all feedback on these podcasts including topics for future discussion or if you want to send us any questions for our “May Not Be From Actual Listeners” segment. Hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com or @rushthecourt on Twitter.
David Changas (@dchangas) is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after tonight’s Middle Tennessee State – Belmont game in Nashville.
Kermit Davis has won 187 games in just over 10 seasons as the head coach at Middle Tennessee State. He has only suffered through one losing season during his tenure, and led the Blue Raiders to a school-record 27 wins and a Sun Belt regular season championship last year. It was his second league title in three years, and despite losing 2011-12 Sun Belt Player of the Year LaRon Dendy, MTSU returned the majority of a roster that disappointingly lost in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament, costing itself any chance of an at-large bid. And this is the problem for Davis. Despite being a a consistent, steady, and well-liked leader for the Blue Raiders for the past decade, he has never taken the school to the NCAA Tournament. With so much returning from last year’s squad, expectations are high, as MTSU is the prohibitive favorite to win the league championship. Anything short of a trip to the Big Dance will be an unqualified disappointment. And because the Blue Raiders are so senior-laden, this may be their last best chance to win the conference for a while.
Kermit Davis is Underrated Because He Hasn’t Yet Danced at MTSU
MTSU was 7-2 entering Thursday’s contest at Belmont, with wins at Central Florida and over Ole Miss being the most impressive on its resume, but after a back-and-forth first half that left them trailing by only four at the break, the Blue Raiders fell apart quickly in the second half and trailed by as many as 18 on their way to a 64-49 defeat. Entering the game, MTSU seemed to have the quickness on the perimeter to slow down Belmont’s dynamic backcourt duo of Kerron Johnson and Ian Clark, and also had a significant edge on the interior, where the Bruins are especially limited. Johnson dominated the second half, though, and Belmont neutralized Blue Raider big man Shawn Jones, who despite having a significant size and athletic advantage, was a complete non-factor after being relegated to the bench with foul trouble for nearly the entire first half. It was a disappointing effort for a team coming off a win over SEC foe Ole Miss on December 8. “I didn’t think we competed at all in the second half. Our size should have been a big factor in the game. We couldn’t take advantage of it. We missed some balls around the rim,” Davis said. “Their bigs were so much more effective than our bigs around the goal.” Davis also was critical of his team’s lack of “physicalness and toughness,” and was clearly disappointed in MTSU’s overall effort in a game that matched programs of similar stature that can use every quality non-conference win they can get.
Michael Vernetti is the RTC correspondent for the West Coast Conference.
Top Storylines
Zags supreme? The steady rumble of Gonzaga media support reached a higher pitch than usual this preseason, perhaps fueled by the Zags’ strong showing in the NCAA Tournament last March (dispatching West Virginia 77-54 and taking Ohio State to the wire before succumbing 73-66). With everyone back and anticipation building over incoming 7’1″ freshman Przemek Karnowski, the Zags’ success this year seemed foreordained. And their fast start, humbling West Virginia for the second time in eight months, 84-50, and roaring through the Old Spice Classic with wins over Clemson, Oklahoma and Davidson, amped up the volume. By the time Gonzaga faced Illinois last Saturday in Spokane, it was off to its best start in school history at 9-0 and ranked #10 in the AP poll. The Illini, however, under new coach John Groce, have dreams of their own, and were also riding an undefeated start (9-0) and high AP ranking (#13). Illinois spanked the Zags 85-74, temporarily derailing the express train to the Final Four, but didn’t dislodge Gonzaga from the top spot in the preseason WCC poll.
What else is new? Mark Few has his Gonzaga squad playing at a high level (AP)
Welcome back, Traz and Kevin: If ever a team was glad to get back two stars temporarily sidelined, it was Santa Clara and seniors Marc Trasolini and Kevin Foster. Without Trasolini out of action all last year because of a knee injury, and without Foster for the last eight conference games following a drunken driving arrest, the Broncos stumbled to a humiliating 0-16 record in the WCC. Things are looking up for Kerry Keating’s Broncos this year, thanks to a heavy dose of Foster and Trasolini. Foster was named WCC Player of the Month for November after averaging 21.7 points per game, moving past Kurt Rambis to become Santa Clara’s all-time leading scorer and moving to third-place in WCC history for made three-point baskets. Trasolini has also been stellar, averaging nearly 15 points and 7.2 rebounds per game as Santa Clara fights back toward respectability.
Cousy for Delly? Saint Mary’s Matthew Dellavedova was among the final five candidates for last year’s Bob Cousy Award given to the nation’s outstanding point guard (North Carolina’s Kendall Marshall won the award in 2011-12) and has been nominated again this year. Can Delly buck the headwinds from players from larger conferences (e.g., Aaron Craft of Ohio State, Phil Pressey of Missouri, Peyton Siva of Louisville) and capture the prize this year? He seems to be building the type of season that would make a great case for it, leading the Gaels in scoring with 18.4 points per game and dishing out 5.6 assists per game, but his non-statistical contributions are even more compelling. Without muscular Rob Jones in the Gaels’ lineup this year, Dellavedova has shouldered both the scoring and leadership roles, twice scoring more than 30 points (32 in a win over Drexel, and 31 in a win against Drake) and holding his team together until newcomer Matt Hodgson settles in on the front line. A lot may depend on how well Saint Mary’s does in the postseason, and Delly will need some help if that is the deciding criterion.
Reader’s Take
Power Rankings
Gonzaga (9-1):Until they ventured into Pullman, Washington on December 5 for their first true road game of the year against Washington State, the Zags seemed to be building toward a dominating season. They let the pesky Cougars, who had already suffered a 58-56 loss to Pepperdine and were picked to finish 10th in the Pac-12, tie them with 14 seconds left, however, and were saved by a last-minute layup by Kevin Pangos to pull out a 71-69 win. Things got worse three days later with the Illinois loss, but Gonzaga has shown intimidating depth on the front line with the rejuvenation of 7’0″ forward Kelly Olynyk, who redshirted last season to work on his game. Olynyk, interrupting teammate Sam Dower’s expected break out season, scored 22 points in the second half against Washington State and 16 against Illinois. The Zags face daunting opponents Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma State in the coming weeks, which will either restore them as postseason favorites or dampen their luster heading into the WCC season. Read the rest of this entry »
Happy Finals week everyone! As the nation’s student-athletes scramble to put together their papers and presentations while hustling to cram for final exams, most of the college basketball world is quiet. But not us here at RTC, as we’re back with another edition of The RTC Podcast. In addition to our usual host Shane Connolly (@sconnolly114), we also brought in national columnist Brian Otskey (author of a weekly column, Ten Tuesday Scribbles) to chat about some of his observations through the first several weeks of the 2012-13 season. He can be found @botskey on Twitter.
On Friday of this week we’ll release our shorter (~15-20 minutes) podblast where we’ll look ahead to a busier weekend of action. Feel free to jump around using the outline below. Also make sure to add the RTC Podcast to your iTunes lineup so that you’ll automatically upload it on your listening device after each recording. Thanks!
0:00-5:40 – Illinois’ big road win over Gonzaga.
5:40-9:25 – Gonzaga’s disappointing home loss – cause for concern?
9:25-15:45 – Top of the MW looking strong again with New Mexico, UNLV and SDSU.
15:45-18:27 – Wyoming, Colorado State and Boise State giving MW depth- are they for real?
18:27-21:21 – What’s going on in Texas?
21:21-25:27 – Who will be the last remaining unbeaten?
25:27-28:15 – Where should Michigan slot within the Top Five?
28:15-32:30 – How high should Cincinnati be ranked after their undefeated start?
32:30-36:20 – Should New Mexico’s fast start be enough to even be in the Top 25?
36:20-39:50 – What match-up do you wish we could see every year during finals week?
We welcome any and all feedback on these podcasts including topics for future discussion or if you want to send us any questions for our “May Not Be From Actual Listeners” segment. Hit us up atrushthecourt@yahoo.com or @rushthecourt on Twitter.
Joe Dzuback is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after Saturday afternoon’s Temple-Duke game in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
“How good can this team become coach?” Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski did not want to answer that question. Superstitious perhaps, or having coached nearly 38 seasons in Division I, he knows how quickly a team’s prospects can change. “I have had some pretty good teams… [“one or two” someone whispered)] …we’ve done ok.” Anyone who had watched Duke dismantle Temple to the tune of 90-67 on Saturday afternoon had to know the #2 Blue Devils were better than “ok.” Previews of this match-up dwelled on the role Temple’s guards played in the Owls’ 78-73 win last season, and the Owls’ prospects would rise or fall on guard play again. Both teams play three guards, but the similarity ends there. Duke’s guards look like… guards. Quinn Cook is 6’ 1” and 175 pounds. Seth Curry, who still wears a boot while not on the court to protect his ankle injured in Duke’s win over Ohio State, stands at 6’ 2” and 185 pounds. Rasheed Sulaimon (dubbed “Sulaimon the Great” by a member of the press after the freshman hit his first three of the game standing about four feet behind the three point line) is a 6’ 4”, 185-pound beanstalk. Tyler Thornton is a 6’ 1”, 190-pound “sixth man,” and the only other guard on the roster.
Despite a lingering ankle injury, Duke’s Seth Curry launches a three from well behind the three-point line. He made this second half attempt.
Temple head coach Fran Dunphy favors taller, thicker wings who move seamlessly between point guard and small forward. Will Cummings, a 6’ 2” sophomore who plays the point for Temple this season, is the only one of the seven players listed on the Temple roster as a “guard” or more appropriately “guard/forward” who could pass for a Duke mold guard. Khalif Wyatt, at 6’ 4” and 210 pounds, and Scootie Randall, 6’ 6” and 225 pounds, are “Philly guards,” whose build and style of play reminds fans of the Big 5 of Diante Christmas and Ramone Moore, two of the wings developed by Dunphy since he moved over from Penn four seasons ago. They are all built like safeties and each is as likely to roll off a screen, catch and shoot a three, as he is to put the ball on the deck and drive the lane for a layup. Christmas, Moore, Wyatt and Randall, along with 6’ 5”, 220-pound transfer Dalton Pepper, grew up in Philadelphia or in one of the surrounding Delaware Valley suburbs.
It wasn’t too long ago that Michael Carter-Williams was a forgotten member of the Syracuse Orange. Stuck behind an experienced backcourt featuring Scoop Jardine, Dion Waiters and Brandon Triche, Carter-Williams seemed glued to the bench – playing sparingly, and with a tight leash whenever his name was called. The 6’6” point guard only played in four of the Orange’s last 11 games and did not enter any of last year’s NCAA Tournament contests. “I thought I should have been playing,” he said. Fast forward a year later and Carter-Williams is proving to be one of college basketball’s biggest breakout players. After a 15-point, 16-assist performance in a 108-56 thrashing of Monmouth over the weekend, the Massachusetts native is averaging 12 points and over 10 assists per game, good for first in the country. His 16 assists versus Monmouth were the third most in Syracuse single-game history, behind only Sherman Douglas and Pearl Washington.
Michael Carter-Williams Has Been a Revelation This Season
Carter-Williams has kept the Orange’s offense running smoothly with his deft passing ability and vocal leadership. When he leaves the game, Syracuse is left without a facilitator and the offense crumbles. As shown in Luke Winn’s latest Power Rankings, Carter-Williams assists on 50.2% of Syracuse’s field goals, which is fourth most in the country. Rakeem Christmas, the recipient of many of Carter-Williams alley-oops, said having the point guard on the floor is key. “He [Carter-Williams] makes it very easy. Just knowing he’s there on the court makes me want to get open even more, so he can pass the ball to me.” He said his vocality on the floor is something he learned from Jardine. “Scoop was great. He taught me a lot. I learned from him a lot, probably more than any other player,” he said.Carter-Williams can often be seen directing a teammate where to go on the floor or gathering the troops for a quick huddle before a free throw. “He’s just taking control of this whole entire team,” said redshirt freshman Trevor Cooney. Aside from his assist numbers, Carter-Williams has also stuffed the box score in the rebounding and steals columns. He’s second on the team in rebounding with six per game, and fourth in the country in steals with just under four per game.
Here are some quick thoughts from today’s California-UNLV match-up in Berkeley, won by the Runnin’ Rebels in the final seconds.
Three Key Takeaways.
The National Debut of Anthony Bennett. A nationally-televised Sunday afternoon game allowed college basketball fans who may not have seen the freshman play before an opportunity to do so. They were not disappointed. Bennett showed a complete offensive game, going for a career-high 25/13 on 9-17 shooting and exhibiting an overall skill set that is reminiscent of a quicker-footed DeJuan Blair. Built at a legitimate 240 pounds if not quite standing 6’8″, Bennett has tremendous lift off the floor for a man his size and a very nice touch around the rim with his short jumpers and putbacks. His ball-fake leading to a baseline jam with a minute left was SportsCenter top 10-worthy, but we were equally impressed by his cool down the stretch in nailing two free throws to tie the game before that play, and a sweet pivot-and-shoot 12-footer to give his team a one-point lead heading into Cal’s final possession. Bennett is already playing like an All-American — get a look at him now, because it’s unlikely he’ll be around again next year.
Offensive Rebounding Killed Cal. It was a problem for Cal all night long, and it ultimately did in the Golden Bears as Anthony Marshall’s airball with a couple of ticks remaining landed softly in the hands of Quintrell Thomas underneath, allowing him to calmly rise back up and drop in a layup to give UNLV the win. The Runnin’ Rebels finished the game with a monstrous 13 offensive boards, leading to numerous chances and an additional nine points. Mike Montgomery’s club has been a solid team on the glass this season, but the Rebels’ athleticism at every position seemed to surprise the Bears and helps to explain how a team that was shooting 65% at the half found itself behind by seven points (45-38) on its home floor.
Mike Moser’s Dislocated Elbow. Only five minutes into the game, UNLV’s Mike Moser dove for a loose ball and remained on the floor in considerable pain. Later news reported that he dislocated his right elbow in the scrum and he could be out of the Rebels’ lineup for the next month. Dave Rice confirmed as much in his postgame interview and it was clear that he wasn’t sure how long this would hold Moser out for. The good news for UNLV is that Khem Birch is due to enter the lineup in a little over a week at the semester break, so even though he plays a different position, as Bennett put it, they’re similar in that they’re both “inside dominant players.” In a silver-lining sort of way, this could end up making Dave Rice’s team stronger in the long run, assuming Moser is able to get back to 100% by January.
Star of the Game. Anthony Bennett, UNLV. The precocious freshman with equally light feet to match his brawny frame not only went for a career-high 25 points and 13 rebounds in front of a hostile road crowd, but he also was responsible for a couple of clutch plays down the stretch — a ridiculously athletic baseline jam followed by a 12-footer from the opposite baseline — that allowed UNLV to stay close enough to win the game in the final minute. Here’s our interview with Bennett after the game:
Quotable.
UNLV head coach Dave Rice: “It’s not good. […] But I suspect we’ll be playing without him for some time,” referring to Mike Moser’s elbow injury.
California head coach Mike Montgomery: “Defensively, we got what we wanted. We got an airball as a matter of fact,” referring to the final defensive play that led to the game-winning layup for UNLV.
Sights and Sounds. There’s nothing in American sports quite like the cacophony of an entire arena joining in a chorus of boos. This incident was the result of Allen Crabbe’s questionable flagrant one foul in the first half, where he swung his elbow through to clear space and a UNLV player sold the contact convincingly.
What’s Next. Cal will have the week off before welcoming Creighton and Doug McDermott to Berkeley next Saturday night. UNLV has a throwaway home game against D-III La Verne on Thursday night before finishing off the first semester with UTEP at the Thomas & Mack Center. Incoming transfer Khem Birch is expected to be eligible after that point, especially important now that Moser’s status appears to be that he will not return to the floor for several weeks.
