ACC Game On will periodically review recent games involving ACC teams and take a look forward at key upcoming matchups.

Every team in the Atlantic Coast Conference has played at least one game so far, except for Boston College which makes it’s debut tonight. Before we get to breaking down Monday night’s slate of games, let’s spend a little time taking a look at this past weekend and the first few games played by ACC teams. While most everyone stuck pretty closely to the script, there were a few pleasant surprises for ACC fans.

Unsurprisingly, the star of the Carrier Classic was the aircraft carrier itself. The USS Carl Vinson was an incredibly cool setting for a basketball game. So cool, in fact, that the basketball game seemed like an afterthought. While North Carolina beat Michigan State, and John Henson was able to show off his shot-blocking ability by getting nine of them, it was his increased offensive arsenal (which he continued to demonstrate on Sunday against UNC Asheville) that should excite Tar Heel fans. But the real MVP of the event was probably the San Diego sky.

Neither Team Was As Good As The Setting

Belmont lived up to its reputation as a dangerous team and came within one point of upsetting Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke held the line and eked out a victory against the pesky and talented Bruins. This, combined with a blowout over Presbyterian confirms very little about this year’s Blue Devils. Rather, viewers learned a great deal more about Belmont and Presbyterian (one’s quite good and the other’s quite bad) than they did about the as-yet-enigmatic and still-emerging Blue Devils. Wins are wins though, and now Mike Krzyzewski has as many of them (902) as any men’s college basketball coach in Division I history.

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Kimmel Arena opened up in style. The UNC Asheville Bulldogs hosted the North Carolina Tar Heels in a brand new building that was packed with loud and enthusiastic fans. Bruce Hornsby, whose son, Keith,  plays for Asheville, kicked things off with a jazzy piano rendition of the Star-Spangled Banner. The second he stopped, the Bulldogs’ fans cheered as consistently loud and as hard as any crowd in college sports can in an effort to inspire the upset against the nation’s #1 team. As well as the defending Big South champions played, however, and as fantastic as the crowd was on this Sunday afternoon, Eddie Biedenbach‘s team was just overmatched.

Still, like North Carolina‘s win over Michigan State Friday night on the USS Carl Vinson, the victory over the Bulldogs was fine, but not good enough. When Roy Williams finally sat the starters with less than two minutes remaining, there wasn’t a lot of smiling on his bench. This is where the Tar Heels are: They won 91-75 (though the margin felt even bigger than it was), and the Asheville student section chanted “overrated.” It seems a silly thing to do when your team is losing by double figures, but the frowns on the faces of the North Carolina players confirmed the truth of the chant: UNC was not playing up to its lofty expectations.

After Looking Disoriented At The Carrier Classic, Kendall Marshall Bounced Back With A Fifteen Assist Game Against UNC Asheville

It’s an odd thing, and maybe it has more to do with the unrealistic expectations that have been placed upon this team by the greater college basketball world. Yet, when the first half was drawing to a close, I couldn’t help but feel that UNC just looked bad. Asheville was getting out on the break while the lagging Tar Heels weren’t even running the court. Tyler Zeller kept turning the ball over. John Henson looked winded, signaling to come out midway through the first half. Harrison Barnes just looked off, passive in his play and seemingly uninterested. North Carolina led by nine at the half, but the fierce play and tenacity of the Bulldogs to that point seemed like it gave UNCA a good chance of winning out over a tired, unfocused, and out-of-sorts North Carolina team.

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Eight of the twelve ACC teams are beginning their seasons tonight, though Virginia Tech is playing their first game on Saturday, while Virginia and Maryland first play on Sunday. For whatever reason, Boston College won’t be playing a game until Monday. For this inaugural edition of Game On, let’s confine ourselves to looking at tonight’s slate of games.

Tyler Zeller and UNC Are Ready For Basketball

The Main Event
North Carolina vs. Michigan State 7pm EST on ESPN

The Carrier Classic is an exciting match-up in a unique setting between two storied programs who are both looking to make a run in the NCAA tournament this year. While this is the first chance for the nation to see top ranked North Carolina in action it’s also a time to see a Michigan State program that is in flux. Tom Izzo remains one of the best coaches in the nation, but the success of this year’s roster is hardly a sure thing. We may have spent a little bit of time talking about this game, but I can’t really remember.

The Undercard
Belmont at Duke 9pm EST on ESPNU

Lots of folks have this game pegged as a potential upset and it’s hard to say that they are wrong. Belmont is a sweet-shooting team that blasted it’s way through the Atlantic Sun Conference last season. This is a skilled and hungry team that failed to notch a truly big win in their otherwise successful 2010-11 campaign. Duke certainly fits the bill for a “quality win” and the inexperienced guards who play suspect perimeter defense might leave the Blue Devils particularly vulnerable to the high-volume three-point attack that Belmont thrives on. We previewed this game in greater detail over here.

For Connoisseurs
Loyola (MD) at Wake Forest 7pm EST on ESPN3.com

This is a dangerous game for a Wake Forest team that kicked off it’s last season by losing to Stetson. Loyola is a much better team than Stetson was, making them a real threat to a still-developing Wake Forest squad. Advanced stats like Loyola quite a bit, and in fact, the pre-season Ken Pomeroy rankings actually have Loyola ranked slightly higher than Wake Forest. Both teams really want this win, I’m sure, and while the home court advantage of Wake Forest might give them an edge, this game has perhaps the most potential of the entire night’s slate for an upset.

UNC-Asheville at North Carolina State 7pm EST

UNC-Asheville made the NCAA tournament last year while NC State did not. Granted, UNCA got in with the benefit of the Big South’s automatic bid, but that’s not to say that they are undeserving. The Bulldogs won plenty of games last season and enter the season hoping to repeat last year’s performance. The Wolfpack still ought to beat Asheville’s teamfairly easily, but at the very least, this game should give some insight into how realistic UNCA’s chances are at upsetting North Carolina or Connecticut later on in the schedule.

Jacksonville at Florida State 7pm EST on ESPN3.com

Jacksonville took out a very good Florida team in a shocking overtime win last year. Teams that have experience taking down Goliaths have a tendency to relish their David role. That said, last year’s Jacksonville team had a hard time scoring the ball. Starting off against the defensive juggernaut that is Florida State means that there is a very good chance that the Seminoles make Jacksonville’s offense look even uglier. Though Jacksonville does have a legitimate shot at an upset, there’s a much greater chance that Leonard Hamilton’s team turns this game into a rout.

For Fans Only
Florida A&M at Georgia Tech 8pm EST on ESPN3.com
Gardener Webb at Clemson 8pm EST on ESPN3.com
Tennessee Tech at Miami (FL) 7pm EST

It’s not that these are bad games per se, but most people who don’t have a dog in this fight aren’t going to be particularly entertained watching the ACC’s middle class stomp small-conference cupcakes. If you had to pick a game to watch, Tennessee Tech is probably the best among these challenging teams. Of course, this is the one game that ESPN3.com won’t be carrying.  Thems the breaks.

Belmont is good. This is no secret. In years past, Duke opening it’s season by hosting Belmont wouldn’t be a big deal: just another ceremonial squashing of a mid-major to inaugurate the season. But this year, Belmont seems to be designed explicitly for the sole purpose of shocking the Blue Devils. Duke is a good team and Mike Krzyzewski didn’t become the legendary Coach K by overlooking opponents. Duke will be ready to deal with Belmont trying to leverage their strengths against Duke’s weaknesses. That said, what exactly are Belmont’s strengths?

Does Rick Byrd Have The Ingredients Needed To Cook Up An Upset?

The Bruins squad is deep. Last year, they played eleven men for more than ten minutes a game. None of their players averaged more than twenty-five minutes a game. This depth is a necessary part of the Bruin’s clever, but physically taxing, pressure defensive scheme. This team plays fast (though not faster than Duke did last season) and tries to force turnovers with tough man to man pressure and trapping schemes. Last year, the Bruins were fairly successful, forcing turnovers on a remarkable 27.5% of defensive possessions, good for second best in the entire nation. Kerron Johnson actually managed to lead the nation in steal percentage, taking away the ball on 6.3% of posessions. No one in the nation even really came that close to matching that per-possession mark. Combine that with an old-school protect the paint mentality and the Bruins managed to successfully limit opponents field goal percentage (though admittedly at the expense of fouling a lot). Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency statistics rated the Bruins as the twenty-third best defense in the country, which is not too shabby. With the relatively inexperienced Duke backcourt, it seems very possible that Belmont should be able to have some success in forcing turnovers.

On offense, the Bruins could take down Goliath with the same tactic that countless mid-majors use: shooting a ton of threes. Belmont, last year, has no problem leaning on the three: 42.3% of all of the Bruins field goals came from behind the arc. Only seventeen schools in Division I shot more from three. Not only does the team take a lot of threes, but they make a lot. As a team, they made 37.8% of their three-point attempts, 33rd best in the nation. Surprisingly, the team rated even better on two-pointers, making 52.2%, the 19th best in the nation. While many teams pick their spots when they shoot threes, going to the long ball relatively sparingly, Belmont moves in the opposite direction, picking their spots on inside shots and only shooting high percentage shots created from keen ball movement. While the Bruins will certainly miss senior Jordan Campbell and his insane 45.8% three-point shooting, Belmont is well-positioned to maintain last year’s highly successful attack.

The irony of Belmont’s strengths is that they play into areas that are usually Duke’s strengths. The recent hallmarks of a Blue Devil team are an experienced back court that can apply excellent perimeter pressure and rarely turns the ball over on offense. With this year’s personnel, it’s unclear if Duke will be able to match previous year’s marks in this era. Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, and Austin Rivers are all skilled players, but their ability to play effective perimeter defense is largely unproven. In this year’s exhibitions, Duke had a hard time stopping dribble penetration and often found it’s guards getting beat by opponents. While Curry and Dawkins had relatively low turnover rates this year, it’s unclear if they will be able to maintain these rates when both players will be handling the ball more an expected to create their own shots.

Still, despite Belmont’s seeming match-up advantages, Duke still has what might be an effective trump card: size. Ryan Kelly, Miles Plumlee, and Mason Plumlee are big guys that are (usually) talented interior defenders. While Belmont goes inside less than most teams, it’s still an important part of their offensive game plan. If their is one statistic that bodes well for the Blue Devils, it’s that last year Belmont got blocked on 13.0% of all their offensive possessions, the third worst mark in all of college basketball. Mason Plumlee and Kelly both shared a real flair for blocking shots last year and if they get the chance, they have the potential to make things really miserable for Belmont whenever they look to score inside.

Still, it’s easy to see that Belmont has all of the pieces to pull off an upset. Will they? It’s the home opener for Duke. The home opener in a surely loud and rocking Cameron Indoor. If Belmont managed to catch Duke somewhat off-guard, maybe in the middle of the season or after another tough opponent, I’d like their chances better. I don’t think they pull it off tonight, but, at least on paper, the Bruins certainly look capable of shocking Duke.

For two teams that aren’t near each other, play in different conferences, and don’t have some sort of natural relationship to one another, it’s not an exaggeration to say that North Carolina and Michigan State have an intense and storied rivalry. It’s a rivalry that started out with an absolute bang.

Izzo & Williams Have Elevated This Odd Rivalry

In 1957, Michigan State had a breakthrough year with it’s first share of the Big Ten title and a run in the NCAA Tournament that took the Spartans to the Final Four. There, in the semifinals, the Spartans took on the undefeated Tar Heels in a triple overtime thriller that resulted in UNC eking out a 74-70 win. This led to a championship clash with an also-undefeated Wilt Chamberlain-led Kansas team that somehow also resulted in another triple overtime slugfest and a 54-53 North Carolina victory for Frank McGuire’s team. It was North Carolina’s first national championship. In a consolation game, Michigan State would go on to play the two-time defending champions, San Francisco, which was making its first Final Four run without the great Bill Russell.  With all the big names, undefeated teams, and pair of triple overtime games, it was undoubtedly one of the best Final Fours in history. It was also only the beginning of the Spartans’ rivalry with the Tar Heels.

Since that first fateful meeting in the 1957 Final Four, it seemed like these two teams were destined for postseason clashes.  On five separate occasions, the two have squared off in the NCAA Tournament, and, unfortunately, for the Spartans, each game served as a bitter reminder of ’57. What the ’98 and ’07 clashes lacked, the ’05 and ’09 matches made up for in terms of stakes and drama. The ’05 game was another Final Four bout that was chock full of exciting moments, while the ’09 championship tilt was a remarkable rematch between two teams that had played each other at Ford Field once already that season. Of course, the rematch turned out to be nearly identical to the regular season game and quickly turned into a UNC rout.

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Somehow, this is how the college basketball season begins in earnest: North Carolina plays against Michigan State on an aircraft carrier in front of the President of the United States. As much as I’ve read about this, the whole thing still seems pretty surreal. Yet here we are, one day out, and as near as anyone can tell, this is actually happening. Earlier fears of bad weather have subsided, as the storm that was headed for San Diego has stalled, meaning that the game won’t have to relocate inside the hangar bay. It will actually take place on the carrier deck. USA Today published a nice visual schematic of what the court will look like and offered a sense of the scale of this endeavor. Meanwhile, ESPN Sports Science provided a breakdown of how the players might deal with some of the complications of the game — namely seasickness and the vision problems associated with playing outside in changing light, while Eamonn Brennan offers a slightly less scientific take on the challenges. The US Navy itself had the most impressive feature, though, when they posted a YouTube video time lapse of the construction of the court. The effort took several days of work and the end result is quite impressive.

Both teams landed in San Diego on Wednesday and were treated to a tour of the facility and the nearly-finished basketball court. The North Carolina team didn’t even bother to even hide their amazement during the tour. Kendall Marshall and John Henson openly gawked at the court, while Harrison Barnes seemed fixated on recording the entirety of the tour on his phone. Marshall took a few pictures on his phone and Tweeted them to the world. Without even getting into the specifics of the game, I think it’s safe to say that we are in for a truly unique treat tomorrow evening. For more pictures from a Tar Heel-centric perspective, the UNC Athletic department has posted a few galleries of the players touring the ship.

As the Central Florida finds itself caught up in an NCAA probe and more embarrassing tweets, the two Florida schools in the Atlantic Coast Conference will find themselves shorthanded as they begin play this weekend. At Miami, it was formally announced Thursday that DeQuan Jones will sit out the entire Hurricanes basketball season as the NCAA investigates his involvement with the improper benefits scandal that has enveloped the U’s football program. Jones is the only non-football player to be implicated in the Nevin Shapiro story, and it has been long speculated that Jones probably wouldn’t be playing this season anyway.

Unsurprisingly, DeQuan Jones Won't Be Playing Because Of Miami's NCAA Investigation

In slightly more surprising news, Ian Miller won’t be playing for Florida State during the fall semester either. It appears that the sophomore guard cannot play for the remainder of the fall semester due to academic issues. Miller was one of the backups to Derwin Kitchen for the Seminoles and was expected to compete for the starting point guard role.  Though he played limited, mostly unimpressive minutes in his freshman campaign, he has a good shot from the three-point line (35.8% last season) and could have brought some offensive balance to the post-centered Seminole attack. Miller came to Tallahassee as a big time prospect with a lot of potential, so if he can get his academic house in order by the end of the semester, his return to the lineup could really help Florida State heading into ACC play.

Kellen Carpenter is an ACC microsite staffer and an RTC columnist. Each week, BTN will take an in-depth look at some interesting aspect of college basketball’s statistical arcana.

The phrase “pure point guard” is loaded. It implies that there is a Platonic notion of point guard which all mortal players can only aspire to. We are just fools in a cave looking at a shadow on the wall, but that is all we have when the purest conception of the point guard is beyond our field of vision. I can only assume that this unknowable figure looks something like Bob Cousy. It also implies that outside of “pure point” play, there exists a realm of impure play where the division of basketball labor isn’t as orthodox as it is inside Plato’s basketball cave.

This is What a Pure Point Looks Like

In a point guard, “purity” is code for being a pass-first lead guard. To the traditional school of thought, the roles on a basketball team are strictly regimented: The point guard passes, the shooting guard shoots, but not as much as either forward. The center, near-immobile but Mikan-like in his hunger for loose balls has a single task: rebound the basketball and get it to the point guard. Of course, this idea of the traditional division of labor in basketball hasn’t really held since the days of Mikan himself. Modern basketball, by which I mean basketball since the mid-sixties, has embraced the hybridization of positions. Basketball has for years acknowledged the idea that team roles are mutable and that positions are flexible.  While few have embraced the full-on positional revolution explicated by Bethlehem Shoals and the NBA-heads of the dearly-departed Free Darko, most of us have made peace with the idea that it’s okay for point guards to score occasionally. Kemba Walker and Jimmer Fredette were the break-out stars of the past college basketball season and both undoubtedly play point guard in a thoroughly impure way. If those guys aren’t pure then shouldn’t we all hope to be dirty?

In all seriousness, the concept of the purity of the lead guard is a silly concept to dwell on. Still, like all sports cliches, the idea persists because it’s a convenient way to sum up the play of pass-first point guards, who somehow pay homage to a golden era of basketball which is more than ancient history. Still the idea of the pass-first point guard is an intriguing one in this era of high-scoring combo guards. Like the crocodile, the pass-first guard is a relic of a by-gone epoch, a living fossil and a reminder of the dinosaurs who ruled the earth during that time. Is the crocodile a better predator than the tiger? This isn’t a debate that I’m interested in. The pass-first point guard, by mere value of their odd, antiquarian style is a unique species worth studying.

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CBS Sports conducted a survey of one hundred high-major coaches, asking them to answer a few questions about how their peers performed on the recruiting trail. While the bulk of the story wasn’t particularly surprising, there were a few tidbits that are of particular interest to ACC fans. Though North Carolina coach Roy Williams was pegged as the third best recruiter in the nation after Kentucky’s John Calipari and Arizona’s Sean Miller, what is more interesting is the list of coaches who are apparently overrated as recruiters. I didn’t expect to see Bill Self and the very good Kansas program pegged as overrated in terms of recruiting and somehow, I was even more surprised to see none other than NC State’s own Mark Gottfried as the third most overrated coach in terms of recruiting.

Gottfried Isn't Impressing His Peers on the Recruiting Trail (Yet)

This is a little stunning considering how excellent a job it seemed that Gottfried was doing in his first year recruiting for the Wolfpack. Do the coaches know something we don’t about the players that Gottfried landed? Or is this just sour grapes; coaches jealous of a guy who was able to burst back on to the scene and make an immediate impact? Whatever it is, it’s fascinating that a coach who, in his first year after taking a break from coaching, made the list. I’d be eager to know why the other coaches think so little of a coach who seems to be doing the right things on the recruiting trail.

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Can you feel it? Basketball is in the air and we are just a few short days away from ACC teams playing real basketball. It’s exciting to say the least. Though conference play is still a ways off, we thought it would be helpful to compile our pre-season look at each of the Atlantic Coast Conference’s twelve teams into one place, so that it will be easy to look up how totally wrong we were about the season, or conversely, to praise us for uncanny insight into the future. Yesterday we broke down the individual awards, but today, it’s all about the teams.  Here’s how we see everything shaking out, in terms of standings, conference records and postseason placement:

1. North Carolina (14-2) – NCAA top overall seed
2. Duke (11-5) – NCAA #3 seed
3. Florida State (10-6) – NCAA#3 seed
4. Miami (9-7) – NCAA #9 seed
5. Virginia (9-7) – NCAA #8 seed
6. NC State (8-8) – NCAA #12 seed
7. Virginia Tech (8-8) – NIT
8. Clemson (7-9) – NIT
9. Maryland (6-10)
10. Wake Forest (5-11)
11. Boston College (5-11)
12. Georgia Tech (4-12)

In short, we see North Carolina at the top with Florida State challenging Duke (more closely than might be imagined) for the second place spot. We like Miami, Virginia, and NC State to take leaps forward. While Wahoo and Wolfpack fans are probably happy that we see a return to the Tournament for their teams, we can’t offer that same degree of optimism for a Virginia Tech team that seems bound for just the wrong side of the bubble. Again. At the bottom of the standings, we see Wake Forest and Boston College doing slightly better than most, mostly due to our lack of confidence in this year’s Georgia Tech squad. We feel that Clemson and Maryland are due for down years and potential rebuilding growing pains, though if we had to name two teams whose performance in the conference we are the least sure of, we’d probably name those two. If you want to check out more storylines for the upcoming conference season, we’d refer you to the ACC Conference Primer which is chock full of information for this coming year and encourage you to get pumped for a dynamite season.