As we noted in Monday’s Morning Five post, the guys at Basketball Prospectus put together an interesting list evaluating the performance of last year’s top 100 freshmen. The piece compares their freshman year results (rated #1-#100) with how they were ranked in the preseason coming out of high school. Of course, this list is subjective but author Drew Cannon nails it using statistics to back up his rankings. The results are a mixed bag. While the #1 recruit (Anthony Davis) finished as the top freshman, and four of the top six recruits turned in top six freshman season performances, there was tremendous fluctuation with the other players. Four of the top 20 freshman performers jumped up at least 40 slots from where they were ranked coming out of high school. The most fascinating player in our view is Trey Burke, who entered college as the #84 player in his class and finished the season at #5 on Cannon’s list. How does such a player slip through the cracks, and what do these findings tell us about the value of recruiting rankings as they relate to immediate success?

Freshman Trey Burke Turned in a Special Season After Hardly Cracking the Top 100 of his Class (AP)

Obviously all years are markedly different, so there’s no definite conclusion to draw from just one year of data. But we took a look at the list and noted a trend. For the most part, there is not as much fluctuation at the top of these rankings as you might expect, and Burke remains a massive outlier. Consider that nine freshman players turned pro after last season, and all of them finished in the top 14 of this list. All nine of the pros were originally ranked in the top 17 last preseason, except for Moe Harkless (#39). That makes Burke such an odd case, as the #84 player from high school who finished fifth in Cannon’s performance rankings and nearly went pro after one year.

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The Atlantic 10 has had perhaps the busiest offseason of any major basketball conference, highlighted by the exciting additions of Butler and VCU to the league starting immediately next season. The A-10 all of a sudden has 16 teams competing in 2012-13, causing a dilemma in seeking a balanced 16-game conference schedule. But as has been the case all offseason, the league did a terrific job at solving the problem quickly and effectively. On Tuesday the conference released its new league schedule for next season, one that includes all teams playing each other once, and each member taking on a rival opponent twice. Most notable about the set schedule is how difficult a draw was given to darling newcomer Butler. The Bulldogs are in for a much tougher slate than they faced the past several years en route to finishing third or better in the Horizon League for the past seven seasons.

Brad Stevens' Team Received No Favors from the Atlantic 10 (AP Photo/D. Phillip)

Brad Stevens’ team was already facing increased competition by upgrading from the Horizon to the Atlantic 10, but things are made that much harder by the draw they earned next year. To start, Butler’s chosen ‘rival’ is Saint Louis, a league favorite next season that returns four starters from a round-of-32 NCAA Tournament team. The Bulldogs also drew fellow newcomer VCU on the road where the Rams lost just once last season and return a number of key contributors. In addition, Butler plays on the road at Dayton, Massachusetts, and St. Joseph’s, the latter two of which are up-and-coming contenders for next season. The Flyers finished tied for fifth in the league last year and bring back some strong players, as well. Finally, although the Bulldogs drew Xavier at home, they still have to play the Musketeers a second time during the season as part of a previously scheduled ‘non-conference’ game – and it’s in Cincinnati.

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Scheduling controversies have been prevalent in the news recently, most notably involving Kentucky, Indiana, and their inability to continue a classic rivalry. Supporters of both schools are upset about the (currently) canceled tradition, and rightfully so. So the fact that the SEC announced Monday that it plans to establish permanent basketball rivalries to play twice a year is a positive development in giving fans the matchups they really want to see. Even as the conference expands to 14 teams next season, top combatants (Kentucky-Florida, Auburn-Alabama to name a few) will still see each other two times every year. As part of an 18-game conference schedule, teams will also play four other opponents who will rotate in a three-year cycle twice per year, and play the eight remaining teams once per season. There are pros and cons to this new scheduling format, but the league deserves praise for its progressive decision to focus on key rivalries.

Even as the SEC Expands, Kentucky and Florida Will Still Play Twice a Year (USA TODAY photo)

The establishment of ‘permanent rivals’ is something the Big East failed to explore when it expanded to 16 teams a while ago, leaving its members to play three random teams twice per year as part of its 18-game schedule. As a result, old school rivalries like Georgetown-Syracuse have diminished. Instead of securing a home-and-home series against the Orange, the Hoyas had to travel to ‘Cuse last season and never got a rematch after suffering a painful overtime defeat. The SEC won’t have that problem going forward. Starting immediately in 2012-13, permanent rivals will see each other twice a year, guaranteed. The rivalry pairings are:

• Kentucky–Florida
• Tennessee–Vanderbilt
• Auburn–Alabama
• Mississippi State–Ole Miss
• South Carolina–Georgia
• LSU–Texas A&M
• Arkansas–Missouri

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The Big East sent more teams (nine) to last year’s NCAA Tournament than any other conference, while the SEC compiled the best winning percentage (.769) during the Big Dance. The two leagues are squaring off next season in the second annual SEC/Big East Challenge, whose matchups were announced on Friday. With plenty to offer in the form of juggernaut teams and program traditions, the idea of this event should provide great intrigue to the non-conference season, something the Big Ten and ACC have done in their cross-conference challenge for the past 14 years. Next year’s slate doesn’t look nearly as enticing as some were hoping for — UConn, Louisville, and Missouri aren’t participating, while Syracuse is in but wants out – and our SEC microsite broke down the lack of headline games on the schedule. Nonetheless, we can’t overlook this event that allows for top conference teams to play true road games against other power leagues. Last season, Georgetown played at Alabama in one of the most entertaining games of the entire non-conference slate, and that game didn’t garner much publicity at all. The Big East came away victorious, 8-4, in last year’s event. Here’s what the 2012 SEC/Big East Challenge presents us.

Mike Brey and the Fighting Irish Like Their Chances Against the National Champs Next Year (AP Photo)

Youth vs. Experience, Kentucky at Notre Dame (Nov. 29) – Notre Dame returns all five starters from last season; Kentucky returns none. But both teams have high hopes next year, as the Fighting Irish bring back the entire core from a team that went 13-5 in the Big East while the National Champion Wildcats showcase the nation’s number two recruiting class of SEC-ready stars. Both programs have decorated pasts with loyal fanbases; each team is ranked in the RTC preseason Top 25. What’s not to love about this matchup? A Kentucky-Syracuse game would have garnered more hype, but this matchup could produce a better game. Who wins out, the young guns or the vets? We should get a great read on the new crop of UK freshmen in this their first real road test.

Seeking Sweet Revenge, Marquette at Florida (Nov. 29) – These two teams squared off in last year’s Sweet Sixteen, when the Gators ended the Golden Eagles’ season and Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom’s careers. Buzz Williams’ boys are looking for revenge in Gainesville, though both teams will look a lot different from last season. Florida loses its own pair of stars (Erving Walker, Bradley Beal) but Kenny Boynton and Patric Young are back to form one of the nation’s most threatening inside-out duos. Each team must call on a host of young players that showed promise last year but have to step into more prominent roles in 2012-’13. There’s plenty of intrigue in this one, though Florida is the strong favorite at home.

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The conclusion of Wednesday’s NBA Draft Lottery means that the 2012 order has been decided (outside of potential trades), and we can officially start breaking down the potential scenarios come Draft Day on June 28. There are plenty of mock drafts available at this time, and we are compiling our own scouting reports of the top prospects as well. But besides the tough decisions that general managers have to make in comparing and contrasting players, what are the major storylines of this particular draft? What moves will make off-court headlines in addition to adding talent on the court? Today we take a look at some of the most interesting stories that could potentially play out on June 28.

Could Harrison Barnes End Up Back in Carolina, With the Charlotte Bobcats? (AP Photo)

• The Hornets won Wednesday’s lottery, which means consensus top prospect Anthony Davis is surely headed to New Orleans, the city where he just finished winning a National Championship with Kentucky. Davis recently led the Wildcats to two wins in New Orleans in early April while being named the Final Four Most Outstanding Player, and he appears excited to be heading back for good. “I won a national championship in New Orleans, so why not win another one in New Orleans,” he said on Wednesday. “This can kind of bring joy back to New Orleans, I guess I get lucky when I go there.” The honor, opportunity, and paycheck of a number one overall pick is plenty enough to get a player excited, but not all teams are an ideal fit for each year’s top prospect. Davis, though, is quite comfortable with the idea of being the Hornets’ franchise player, where he will man the middle for a team with a nice young roster and brand new ownership.

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The 2012 NBA Draft is scheduled for Thursday, June 28, in New York City. As we have done for the last several years, RTC’s team of writers (including Andrew Murawa, Kevin Doyle, Evan Jacoby, Matt Patton, and Danny Spewak) will provide comprehensive breakdowns of each of the 35 collegians most likely to hear his name called by David Stern in the first round on draft night. We’ll work backwards, starting with players who are projected near the end of the first round before getting into the lottery as June progresses. As an added bonus, we’ll also bring you a scouting take from NBADraft.net’s Aran Smith at the bottom of each player evaluation.

Note: Click here for all published 2012 NBA Draft profiles.

Player Name: Andrew Nicholson

School: St. Bonaventure

Height/Weight: 6’9” / 225 lbs.

NBA Position: Power Forward

Projected Draft Range: Late First Round

Andrew Nicholson Was a Versatile Threat on Both Ends for St. Bonaventure (AP Photo)

Overview: Despite playing four years in the Atlantic 10 and being productive from the minute he stepped on the floor as a freshman, Andrew Nicholson has long been an under-the-radar prospect. That is, until recently, when he led St. Bonaventure to its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2000 and nearly led the Bonnies to a stunning upset of #3-seed Florida State in the first round — putting up 20 points, seven rebounds, and two blocks, in line with his senior season averages. In that game, the 6’9” beast also extended out and hit 4-5 shots from three-point range, a new skill he’s added to his game that makes him an even more intriguing prospect. Nicholson is a bit undersized for a true power forward/center, but explosiveness around the rim allowed him to average two blocks per game for his college career, and he’s always a threat to throw down dunks near the basket. He was asked to do a lot for his team in college and was always the point of emphasis on opponents’ scouting reports, which perhaps helps explain his struggle with turnovers throughout his career. He was very productive from day one and shot an outstanding 57.4% from the field for his career. Nicholson is a rare senior that’s just now rising up draft boards, as his array of skills provides the potential for great upside outside of the lottery.

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The 2012 NBA Draft is scheduled for Thursday, June 28, in New York City. As we have done for the last several years, RTC’s team of writers (including Andrew Murawa, Kevin Doyle, Evan Jacoby, Matt Patton, and Danny Spewak) will provide comprehensive breakdowns of each of the 35 collegians most likely to hear his name called by David Stern in the first round on draft night. We’ll work backwards, starting with players who are projected near the end of the first round before getting into the lottery as June progresses. As an added bonus, we’ll also bring you a scouting take from NBADraft.net’s Aran Smith at the bottom of each player evaluation.

Note: Click here for all published 2012 NBA Draft profiles.

Player Name: Festus Ezeli

School: Vanderbilt

Height/Weight: 6’11” / 255 lbs.

NBA Position: Center

Projected Draft Range: Late First Round/Early Second Round

Festus Ezeli Will Give an NBA Team a Strong Interior Force (US Presswire/J. Brown)

Overview: Festus Ezeli brings a lot to the table besides having the best name of any available prospect. At 6’11” and 255 pounds, Ezeli is a physical specimen who stands out immediately as usually the strongest player on the floor. His wide body allows him to carve out space on the low blocks to make simple moves in the post. But most impressive is his ability to defend the rim with his prototypical size and wingspan (7’4”) for a center. Unfortunately, Ezeli suffered a knee sprain at the start of his senior year that forced him to miss 10 games and seemed to hamper him throughout the entire season. His lack of elite athleticism was already a concern and remains an issue after he struggled to recover from injury. As a result, he averaged just 10.1 points and 5.9 rebounds as a senior, a far cry from the numbers that we expected after a breakout junior year. He also has poor floor awareness in the post, leading to an atrocious 0.14 assist-to-turnover ratio. His 2.0 blocks per game in 23.2 minutes, though, shows that he maintained his strongest asset as a shot-blocking force. Because of the overall unproductive senior campaign, Ezeli may be dropping on the center totem pole behind guys like Fab Melo and Andrew Nicholson, both players he was arguably ahead of prior to injury. This could make him a strong value at the end of the first round or in the early second round for a team in need of some size and strength defensively.

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The 2012 NBA Draft is scheduled for Thursday, June 28, in New York City. As we have done for the last several years, RTC’s team of writers (including Andrew Murawa, Kevin Doyle, Evan Jacoby, Matt Patton, and Danny Spewak) will provide comprehensive breakdowns of each of the 35 collegians most likely to hear his name called by David Stern in the first round on draft night. We’ll work backwards, starting with players who are projected near the end of the first round before getting into the lottery as June progresses. As an added bonus, we’ll also bring you a scouting take from NBADraft.net’s Aran Smith at the bottom of each player evaluation.

Note: Click here for all published 2012 NBA Draft profiles.

Player Name: Kevin Jones

School: West Virginia

Height/Weight: 6’8” / 250 lbs.

NBA Position: Power Forward / Small Forward

Projected Draft Range: End First Round / Early Second Round

Kevin Jones is a Fiery Competitor That Had a Great Career at West Virginia (Getty Images/J. McIsaac)

Overview: Kevin Jones enjoyed a decorated four-year career at West Virginia that included a run to the Final Four as a sophomore and ended with a phenomenal senior season in terms of productivity. This past year, Jones led the Big East in scoring (19.9 PPG) and rebounding (10.9 RPG) while shooting over 50% from the field and committing just 1.3 turnovers per game. He was one of the most productive forwards in the country and helped his draft stock tremendously. Jones remains a bit of a ‘tweener’ without a set position and is limited athletically in terms of explosiveness, but he has a strong upper body and an impressive wingspan (7’4”) that allows him to get easy buckets in the paint. Combine that with a relentless motor for loose balls and you’ve got a player willing to do all the dirty work on offense. He’s also expanded his range all the way to the three-point line and has gained confidence in the outside shot. Jones still has much work to do defensively, where he averaged just 1.0 blocks and 0.7 steals in 38 minutes per game, but his length and work ethic should allow him to hold his own at the next level on that end. Jones is the typical senior with limited ‘upside’ that will get him overlooked by some teams, but his tremendous productivity last season certainly opened eyes to his potential to be a contributor in the NBA.

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Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter.

Sports fans worldwide recognize The Michigan ‘Fab Five’ team from 1992 and 1993 as one of the most talented and fascinating teams in college hoops history, but 20 years later, the Ann Arbor university wants no part of the infamy. The Fab Five comprised a starting lineup of all freshmen (before it was in vogue) and became famous in equal parts for its revolutionary style, brashness and incomprehensible talent.  Those two, along with four other Wolverines teams in the 90s, were erased from the NCAA history books thanks to admissions of players accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars from recruiting booster Ed Martin. In addition, Michigan received a 10-year penalty from the NCAA requiring disassociation from the guilty players and teams, leading to the removal of the ’92 and ’93 Final Four banners from the Crisler Center. That ban will end in 2013, but the news from over the weekend is that the university doesn’t plan on doing anything about it. Despite an upswell of support, there are currently no plans to re-hang the Final Four banners or recognize anything from the Fab Five era, a decision that’s clearly irked the former players but one that makes a lot of sense from a publicity standpoint. The stance taken by UM upholds the school’s integrity, and it knows that all sports fans will regardless still remember the Fab Five.

The Fab Five Will be Remembered Forever, Even if Michigan's Crisler Center Says Otherwise (Detroit Free Press photo)

No vacation of wins, removal of banners, or lack of contact with former players is going to cause college basketball fans to forget about the Fab Five era. Even Wolverine recruits who were not yet born when Chris Webber, Jalen Rose, and company changed the college game in the fall of 1991 are aware of the Fab Five and its legacy. This is something that UM administrators fully understand and can take advantage of when handling the issue of historical recognition. Continuing to withhold association with the Fab Five teams on campus in Ann Arbor sends a strong message, and yet it will never erase the great memories from those teams in the eyes of fans worldwide. “What happened was not good, and I don’t think they’ll ever go back up. I don’t,” said Michigan president Mary Sue Coleman in reference to the vacated banners. And why should she feel any differently?

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The 2013 NCAA Tournament will be a milestone, marking the 75^th all-time ‘Big Dance’ since Oregon won the first one in 1939. A lot has changed over the years, and it’s much harder to win the Tournament in its current 68-team format than it was for the Ducks in a total field of just eight schools then. In “a concerted effort to include cities with a rich history to help mark the milestone,” according to the new VP of NCAA Championships, Mark Lewis, the committee selected Washington, D.C. as the final host of the 2013 Regionals. The nation’s capital joins previously selected Los Angeles, Indianapolis, and Arlington, Texas, as the four regional locations, with Atlanta hosting next year’s Final Four. The Verizon Center in DC has played host to several classic tournament games in recent history, and the NCAA hopes to recreate that magic next year.

George Mason Provided Fireworks in Washington, D.C. in 2006 (Washington Post)

“In the end, we think celebrating 75 years of one of the country’s favorite sporting events in our nation’s capital and a great basketball city is fitting,” said Lewis, whose committee’s decision came down to Syracuse, Brooklyn, Madison Square Garden (Manhattan), and the District of Columbia. It would have seemed fitting for MSG, the “World’s Most Famous Arena,” to have won on this criteria of rich history, but the arena faced scheduling conflicts with its priority tenants, the Knicks (NBA) and Rangers (NHL). The Verizon Center, while not nearly as historic a venue, is a more frequently-used arena for college games, serving as the primary home court for Georgetown and hosting a number of other games such as the BB&T Classic. The Hoyas will be the official host of this site and as such will be unable to play in that venue during next season’s Tourney.

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