Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

F0r the last few days of the regular season, here is a whole new look bubble watch:

Bracket Math: Below there are 37 locks along the right column. Basically, that number means that if none of my “locks” clinches an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, there are zero at-large spots available. In most years, an average of around six “locks” win automatic bids, meaning there are six un-clinched spots for the NCAA Tournament. Right now, there aren’t any teams in the “should be in” category, or teams that I give a 70% chance or greater of making the Tournament. That means that of the teams below listed in the Bubble Watch, only five can get bids. Remember that bid stealers will potentially shrink that number.

LOCKS: 38
“SHOULD BE INS”: 0
TOTAL: 38 (minus six for projected auto bid winners = 32)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 5

BID STEALERS REMAINING:

• ACC (quarterfinals): Boston College (vs. Miami), Maryland (vs. Duke), Florida State (vs. North Carolina)
• Atlantic 10 (quarterfinals): Charlotte (vs. Saint Louis), Saint Joseph’s (vs. VCU), Massachusetts (vs. Temple)
• Big Ten (quarterfinals): Nebraska (vs. Ohio State), Iowa (vs. Michigan State )
• Conference USA (semifinals): Southern Miss/UTEP winner, Tulsa (vs. Memphis)
• Pac-12 (semifinals): Utah (vs. Oregon)
• SEC (quarterfinals): LSU (vs. Florida), Vanderbilt (vs. Kentucky)

THIS UPDATE:  I moved Minnesota to lock status, even with the Gophers’ last second loss to Illinois Thursday. At this point, it is almost impossible to see a team with the Gophers’ victories not getting into the field.

There are currently 20 teams fighting for 5 spots. If you believe (as I do) that Baylor, Louisiana Tech, Akron, and Charlotte are long shots at best (very small chance, if any, to make the field) you can bring the numbers down to 16 teams fighting for 5 spots.

———————————————————————-

ACC

LOCKS:

• Virginia (21-10, 11-7; RPI: 67): The Cavaliers have been a strange bubble case all season. They have some of the worst losses a bubble team can have, but they also have six impressive wins. One of those wins is against Duke, who might be the nation’s best team now that Ryan Kelly is back. A win over Sunday against Maryland left the Cavs in position to play their way into the field in the ACC Tournament. They get dangerous North Carolina State on Friday in the ACC quarterfinals. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%
• Maryland (21-11, 8-10; RPI: 85): Maryland has two great wins (Duke, NC State) and absolutely nothing behind them. Thursday’s win against Wake Forest keeps the Terps alive, but they’ll have to replicate their February win against Duke to get serious at-large love.. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40%

Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

• New in This Update:
  • I re-evaluated the entire bracket tonight. I had Colorado too low and have moved the Buffaloes up. I admit to overreacting to their loss to Oregon State over the weekend, an exercise I generally avoid (and reference avoiding frequently). Remember, as Selection Committee chairman Mike Bobinski said during his teleconference on Wednesday morning, bracketologists evaluate the bracket every night while the committee only makes one bracket, based on one evaluation of the entire season. That’s why I always say it is important to not overreact to wins and losses. If you would like to read the entire chat, here is the transcript.
  • The biggest story from Wednesday is that Norfolk State (16-0) and North Carolina Central (15-1) in the MEAC both lost in their first conference tournament games. That’s right, the top two seeds are gone. Savannah State is now projected to make the field based on being the highest remaining seed int he MEAC Tournament.
  • San Diego State’s win over Boise State means the Broncos will have a long wait until the field is announced on Selection Sunday.
  • If Louisville gets a #1 seed and plays in Lexington (which it would), the First Four will work out a lot better than it does in my bracket below. I’ve moved one match-up to the #11 line so that teams in the First Four will play close to Dayton if they win their opening round games, but one set of #16 seeds is being sent to Salt Lake City, because it is the only Thursday/Saturday site at which the No. 1 seeds are projected to play.
  • NOTE: Tonight’s bracket does not include a S-curve ranking, but that will return in the next update.
    

LAST FOUR IN: Tennessee, Kentucky, La Salle, Saint Mary’s (last team in)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Virginia (first team out), Mississippi, Alabama, Baylor
NEXT FOUR OUT: Southern Miss, Iowa, Maryland, Xavier

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

Read the rest of this entry »

On some of the days when Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) isn’t providing us with his updated Bubble Watch or his weekly Bracketology, he’ll give us an interesting comparison of some teams that he finds difficult to distinguish.

Which of the following two teams most deserve a bid?

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

Bracket Math: Below there are  34 locks along the right column. Basically, that number means that if none of my “locks” clinches an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, there are only four at-large spots available. In most years, an average of around six “locks” win automatic bids, meaning there are 10 unclinched spots for the NCAA Tournament. I also have one team in the “should be in” category, meaning I project their odds of getting an at-large bid at 70% or higher. If that team ultimately gets in, there are eight total spots available for the teams you see below in my bubble watch. Remember that bid stealers will potentially shrink that number.

LOCKS: 34
“SHOULD BE INS”: 1
TOTAL: 35 (minus six for projected auto bid winners = 29)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 8

• Odds Improving: Memphis (now a lock), Wichita State (lock), Creighton (auto bid), Belmont (auto bid), Tennessee, Kentucky, Baylor
• Odds Decreasing: Louisiana Tech, Maryland, Minnesota, Oklahoma

In the upcoming days, I can start doing a better job at pinpointing exactly how many auto bids will be taken by teams I currently have in lock status.

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF MARCH 10, 2013

ACC: Four Locks, Two Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Virginia (21-10, 11-7; RPI: 64): The Cavaliers have been a strange bubble case all season. They have some of the worst losses a bubble team can have, but they also have six impressive wins. One of those wins is against Duke, who might be the nation’s best team now that Ryan Kelly is back. A win over Sunday against Maryland left the Cavs in position to play their way into the field in the ACC Tournament. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%  Maryland (20-11, 8-10; RPI: 84): Maryland has two great wins (Duke, NC State) and absolutely nothing behind them. After a loss to Virginia on Sunday, I think the Terps’ at-large hopes are gone without a big run to the ACC Tournament final. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40%

Atlantic 10: Three Locks, Four Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Temple (23-8, 11-5; RPI: 44): A win on Sunday over VCU was very big for the Owls’ at-large hopes. This is team that has now won seven straight games and defeated Syracuse outside of conference. The Owls are in good shape right now. Temple will play the winner of Massachusetts and George Washington in round two of the Atlantic 10 tournament. AT-LARGE ODDS: 60%  La Salle (21-8, 11-5; RPI: 40): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, two of the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. On Saturday, the Explorers lost their season finale to Butler. Unfortunately for La Salle, they might see Butler again really soon. The Bulldogs play Dayton in round one with the winner set to take on La Salle. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Massachusetts (19-10, 9-7; RPI: 57): The Minutemen only have one win against the RPI top 50, but seven against the RPI top 100. Thursday night’s loss to Butler may have sealed this team’s fate though. Massachusetts has some decent wins (as I noted) but nothing that really catches attention. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40% Charlotte (20-10, 8-8; RPI: 70): Wins over La Salle and Butler keep the 49ers here, but they have to make the Atlantic 10 final to have any real bubble case.. AT-LARGE ODDS: 35%

Big 12: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Oklahoma (20-10, 11-7; RPI: 33): Welcome to March. Just when a team appears to be in good shape, they screw it up. That’s the case for the Sooners who somehow lost to TCU on Saturday. Now, a first round Big 12 tournament game against Iowa State may decide the Sooners’ fate. This team went from a high percentage last week to one of the last teams in with their bad loss. AT-LARGE ODDS: 55%  Iowa State (21-10, 11-7; RPI: 46): It’s really too bad that the Cyclones could not finish off either of their upset bids against Kansas. A win against West Virginia in the season finale kept their at-large hopes alive, with a huge Big 12 tournament quarterfinal against Oklahoma coming up. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Baylor (18-13, 9-9; RPI: 61): Saturday was a one-game season for Baylor and the Bears destroyed Kansas to pick up a signature win to highlight their profile. Baylor also has a victory against Oklahoma State. A first round Big 12 tournament game against Oklahoma State will be huge for this team’s at-large hopes. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45%

Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

• New in This Update:
  • Saturday was one of the busiest days of the year. Florida Gulf Coast, Harvard, and Belmont clinched NCAA Tournament spots by clinching automatic bids.
  • Kansas is off the No. 1 line after losing badly to Baylor. Georgetown replaces the Jayhawks after routing Syracuse on Saturday, although it was a close comparison between the Hoyas and Cardinals.
  • Florida is off the No. 2 line after losing to Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Wildcats move into my Last Four In after the come from behind win to defeat the Gators.
  • It seemed like more underdogs won their favorites on Saturday. New Mexico fell off the No. 2 line after losing to Air Force late.  Minnesota continued to slide after losing an ugly game to Purdue. Tennessee knocked off Missouri, Oklahoma lost to TCU, NC State fell at Florida State, and Utah dominated Oregon.

LAST FOUR IN: Colorado, Kentucky, La Salle, Saint Mary’s (last team in)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Virginia (first team out), Mississippi, Alabama, Baylor
NEXT FOUR OUT: Southern Miss, Iowa, Maryland, Xavier

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

Read the rest of this entry »

On some of the days when Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) isn’t providing us with his updated Bubble Watch or his weekly Bracketology, he’ll give us an interesting comparison or two of teams that he finds difficult to distinguish.

TEAM A

• OVERALL RECORD: 20-10
• RPI: 70
• SOS: 134
• BPI: 43
• SAGARIN: 29
• KENPOM: 21
• RECORD VS RPI TOP 25: 2-2
• RECORD VS RPI TOP 50: 4-2
• RECORD VS RPI TOP 100: 7-3

TEAM B

• OVERALL RECORD: 26-5
• RPI: 34
• SOS: 124
• BPI: 32
• SAGARIN: 30
• KENPOM: 19
• RECORD VS RPI TOP 25: 0-2
• RECORD VS RPI TOP 50: 1-2
• RECORD VS RPI TOP 100: 5-3

(teams revealed after the jump)

Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

• As the start of major conference tournaments near, the bubble is starting to take shape. In my Bubble Watch column on Friday, I added Creighton, North Carolina, and Illinois to my growing list of NCAA Tournament locks. In other words, this is a scary time for bubble teams.
• Kentucky is one of the more interesting bubble cases this season. The Wildcats have not been the same without Nerlens Noel, considering they lost to Tennessee by 30 and fell to Georgia on Thursday night. The ‘Cats probably need a win against Florida on Saturday to get into the field as an at-large, barring a trip to the SEC Tournament final.
• Meanwhile, Tennessee survived at Auburn on Wednesday to stay in my field. Virginia wasn’t as lucky against Boston College, but the Cavaliers stay in my field as the last team in. Virginia has six good wins and seven bad losses. If a couple of teams lose in their conference tournaments (Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Creighton), the Cavaliers and teams around them on my S-curve will be sweating on Selection Sunday.
• The race for No. 1 seeds continues to be a headache. Gonzaga appears locked in, barring a loss in the WCC Tournament. If the Bulldogs lose, I’m not sure what the committee will do with them. Indiana and Duke also appear to be No. 1 seeds right now, with the Blue Devils the strongest of the No.1  profiles. Duke hasn’t just been good with Ryan Kelly, they’ve been undefeated. Indiana has hit a rocky stretch, but the Hoosiers still have the look and overall profile of a No. 1 seed. Georgetown’s loss to Villanova on Wednesday makes me more confident that Kansas is the final No. 1 seed. Louisville is the team to watch. The Cardinals are on the move and Florida isn’t too far behind (only two losses when completely healthy).
• I will be updating this bracket more frequently during the upcoming week, so be sure to stay tuned for that. Eight days before Selection Sunday, I’m waiting for the madness to begin. Saturday should be a great start.

BID STEALERS TO WATCH:

• Murray State (OVC — Belmont is a bubble team)
• Indiana State & Illinois State (MVC — Creighton & Wichita State are probably in)
• Loyola Marymount & BYU/San Diego (WCC – Gonzaga is a lock. Saint Mary’s may be in either way).

This file was set for publishing before the BYU-San Diego game went final on Friday night.

LAST FOUR IN: Saint Mary’s, La Salle, Tennessee, Virginia
FIRST FOUR OUT: Mississippi, Alabama, Baylor, Kentucky
NEXT FOUR OUT: Arizona State, Southern Miss, Providence, Maryland

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

Bracket Math: Below there are 33 locks along the right column. Basically, that number means that if none of my “locks” clinches an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, there are only four at-large spots available. In most years, an average of around six “locks” win automatic bids, meaning there are 10 unclinched spots for the NCAA Tournament. I also have five teams in the “should be in” category, meaning I project their odds of getting an at-large bid at 70% or higher. If those teams ultimately get in, there are five total spots available for the teams you see below in my bubble watch. Remember that bid stealers will potentially shrink that number.

LOCKS: 33
“SHOULD BE INS”: 5
TOTAL: 38 (minus six for projected auto bid winners = 32)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 5

• Odds Improving: North Carolina (now a lock), Illinois (lock), Memphis
• Odds Decreasing: Baylor, Louisiana Tech

BELMONT CAN MAKE THINGS EASIER ON BUBBLE TEAMS SATURDAY

If Belmont wins on Saturday against Murray State, bubble teams can sleep a little better on Saturday night. The Bruins are in position to potentially steal an at-large bid if they need one. If they win the OVC, we can take them off the bubble, leaving a spot that may or may not be there depending on how the committee evaluates Belmont. The Bruins have six wins against the top 100, so they’d probably be right on the cut line.

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF MARCH 8, 2013

ACC: Four Locks, Two Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Virginia (20-10, 10-7; RPI: 64): The Cavaliers have been a strange bubble case all season. They have some of the worst losses a bubble team can have, but they also had six impressive wins.  One of those wins is against Duke. Virginia’s lost to Florida State on Thursday night once again showed how up and down this team can be. The finale against Maryland is now a must win and a few wins in the ACC Tournament are needed as well. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%Maryland (20-10, 8-9; RPI: 84): Maryland has two great wins (Duke, N. C. State) and absolutely nothing behind them. I have a hard team seeing this team getting an at-large bid without a win at Virginia on Saturday and a deep run in the ACC Tournament. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45%

Atlantic 10: Three Locks, Four Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

La Salle (21-7, 11-4; RPI: 38): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, two of the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. The season finale against Butler is gigantic for their at-large hopes. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Temple (22-8, 10-5; RPI: 41): The Owls are the kind of team that makes a bracketologist’s job very difficult. A win over Syracuse looks fantastic, but losses to Canisius, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s, and Xavier cannot be ignored. Six straight wins, including a comeback victory against Detroit, has the Owls on the good side of the bubble right now. The season finale against VCU on Saturday could make or break the Owls’ season. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Massachusetts (18-10, 8-7; RPI: 54): Massachusetts lost three straight games before back to back wins against Xavier and Dayton. The Minutemen only have one win against the RPI top 50, but seven against the RPI top 100. Thursday night’s loss to Butler may have sealed this team’s fate though. Massachusetts has some decent wins (as I noted) but nothing that really catches attention. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40% Charlotte (18-10, 6-8; RPI: 70): Six losses in sevens games a few weeks ago pushed the 49ers to the brink of at-large elimination. Wins over La Salle and Butler keep them here, but they have to win their season finale versus Saint Joseph’s and make the Atlantic Ten final. AT-LARGE ODDS: 35%

Big 12: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Oklahoma (20-9, 11-6; RPI: 25): The Sooners have great wins against Oklahoma and Kansas to go along with six other top 100 victories. If Oklahoma can take of business against TCU in their season finale, they appear to be in great shape. It is hard to see this team missing the tournament at this juncture. AT-LARGE ODDS: 75% Iowa State (20-10, 10-7; RPI: 51): It’s really too bad that the Cyclones could not finish off what would have been a huge upset over Kansas last Tuesday. At least Iowa State did rebound by winning against Oklahoma State on Wednesday inight. There is still work to be done. A must win game at West Virginia ends the season. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Baylor (17-13, 8-9; RPI: 61): After a buzzer beating loss to Kansas State on Saturday, Baylor is left with only win against a sure NCAA Tournament team (Oklahoma State) and eight losses against the RPI top 30. This looks like a season of lost opportunities. The good news is a game against Kansas remains on the schedule. Beating the Jayawks on March 9 might be a must win for the Bears to get into the field as an at-large. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40%

Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

Bracket Math: Below there are 33 locks along the right column. Basically, that number means that if none of my “locks” clinches an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, there are only four at-large spots available. In most years, an average of around six “locks” win automatic bids, meaning there are 10 unclinched spots for the NCAA Tournament. I also have five teams in the “should be in” category, meaning I project their odds of getting an at-large bid at 70% or higher. If those teams ultimately get in, there are five total spots available for the teams you see below in my bubble watch. Remember that bid stealers will potentially shrink that number.

LOCKS: 33
“SHOULD BE INS”: 5
TOTAL: 38 (minus six for projected auto bid winners = 32)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 5

• Odds Improving: North Carolina (now a lock), Illinois (lock), Memphis
• Odds Decreasing: Baylor, Louisiana Tech

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF MARCH 7, 2013

ACC: Four Locks, Two Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Virginia (20-10, 10-7; RPI: 64): The Cavaliers have been a strange bubble case all season. They have some of the worst losses a bubble team can have, but they also had six impressive wins.  One of those wins is against Duke. Virginia’s lost to Florida State on Thursday night once again showed how up and down this team can be. The finale against Maryland is now a must win and a few wins in the ACC Tournament are needed as well. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%Maryland (20-10, 8-9; RPI: 84): Maryland has two great wins (Duke, N. C. State) and absolutely nothing behind them. I have a hard team seeing this team getting an at-large bid without a win at Virginia on Saturday and a deep run in the ACC Tournament. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45%

Atlantic 10: Three Locks, Four Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

La Salle (21-7, 11-4; RPI: 38): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, two of the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. The season finale against Butler is gigantic for their at-large hopes. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%Temple (22-8, 10-5; RPI: 41): The Owls are the kind of team that makes a bracketologist’s job very difficult. A win over Syracuse looks fantastic, but losses to Canisius, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s, and Xavier cannot be ignored. Six straight wins, including a comeback victory against Detroit, has the Owls on the good side of the bubble right now. The season finale against VCU on Saturday could make or break the Owls’ season. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Massachusetts (18-10, 8-7; RPI: 54): Massachusetts lost three straight games before back to back wins against Xavier and Dayton. The Minutemen only have one win against the RPI top 50, but seven against the RPI top 100. Thursday night’s loss to Butler may have sealed this team’s fate though. Massachusetts has some decent wins (as I noted) but nothing that really catches attention. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40% Charlotte (18-10, 6-8; RPI: 70): Six losses in sevens games a few weeks ago pushed the 49ers to the brink of at-large elimination. Wins over La Salle and Butler keep them here, but they have to win their season finale versus Saint Joseph’s and make the Atlantic Ten final. AT-LARGE ODDS: 35%

Big 12: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Oklahoma (20-9, 11-6; RPI: 25): The Sooners have great wins against Oklahoma and Kansas to go along with six other top 100 victories. If Oklahoma can take of business against TCU in their season finale, they appear to be in great shape. It is hard to see this team missing the tournament at this juncture. AT-LARGE ODDS: 75%Iowa State (20-10, 10-7; RPI: 51): It’s really too bad that the Cyclones could not finish off what would have been a huge upset over Kansas last Tuesday. At least Iowa State did rebound by winning against Oklahoma State on Wednesday inight. There is still work to be done. A must win game at West Virginia ends the season. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Baylor (17-13, 8-9; RPI: 61): After a buzzer beating loss to Kansas State on Saturday, Baylor is left with only win against a sure NCAA Tournament team (Oklahoma State) and eight losses against the RPI top 30. This looks like a season of lost opportunities. The good news is a game against Kansas remains on the schedule. Beating the Jayawks on March 9 might be a must win for the Bears to get into the field as an at-large. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40%

Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

Now that we are within two weeks of Selection Sunday, I will be posting a little more frequently to show how certain games can/will affect the NCAA Tournament field. As usual, Wednesday night is loaded with some gigantic games. Let’s look at three teams that need big wins tonight:

Hoiberg’s Team Would Do Well to Win Tonight

• Villanova (vs. Georgetown): If the Wildcats can get past the Hoyas, a team that seems destined for a top two seed, Villanova will be in pretty good shape. A win tonight would push them to 10-8 in the Big East and give them a nice W to pair with earlier wins over Louisville and Syracuse. Coming off two straight losses, Villanova cannot afford another setback.
• Iowa State (vs. Oklahoma State): If Iowa State loses tonight, the Cyclones could miss the NCAA Tournament. If a call or two had gone differently in one of the losses to Kansas, I probably would not have Iowa State on this list. The Cyclones only have two wins against the RPI top 50 and their best two wins (Kansas State, Oklahoma) probably are not enough alone to get them into the field.  Like Villanova, Iowa State cannot afford a three-game losing streak at this point of the season.
• Maryland (vs. North Carolina): Outside of wins against Duke and North Carolina State, Maryland’s profile is very weak. The Terrapins need this game at home against North Carolina to realistically stay in the hunt for a bid heading into the ACC Tournament. North Carolina is practically locked in right now, but a win over the Terps would sew that up. The Tar Heels won the first meeting in Chapel Hill by 10 points.

No. 1 Seeds in Conference Tournaments in Action Tonight:

• Atlantic Sun: Mercer (vs. Lipscomb)
• Patriot League: Bucknell (vs. Navy)