Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert.

Going into Saturday, this has been a crazy week in college basketball. Let’s review:

• Baylor is sliding after getting destroyed by Texas Tech.
• Ohio State continues to have zero good wins and has now lost three straight games.
• Wisconsin lost its first game of the year at Indiana Tuesday night.
• Kansas knocked off Iowa State Monday night and continues to move up in my bracketology rankings.

I listed Kansas as a No. 1 seed in my preseason bracketology because the Jayhawks earn No. 1 seeds more consistently than any other team in the country. Kansas always schedules well and it pays off. The Jayhawks are up to No. 2 in my latest bracket and are nearing the No. 1 seed line at this point. Wichita State remains on the No. 3 line despite being undefeated. It’s nothing personal against the Shockers — really, it’s not. They just don’t have the profile of a top two seed at this point. Colorado lost Spencer Dinwiddie to an ACL injury earlier this week and the Buffaloes lost to UCLA  a few nights later. I’ve moved Colorado down because of Dinwiddie’s loss. For now, I’m keeping New Mexico State and Belmont in the bracket below despite losing games this week and technically falling out of first place. It’s still early in the year and for one night, I am willing to give those teams the benefit of the doubt.

Here is the complete field, seeded #1-#68:

First Four Out: Arkansas, Stanford, Indiana, Saint Mary’s

#1 Seeds:
ARIZONA (Pac-12/WEST)
SYRACUSE (ACC/EAST)
WISCONSIN (Big Ten/SOUTH)
Michigan State (Midwest)

#2  Seeds:
Villanova
FLORIDA (SEC)
KANSAS (Big 12)
San Diego State (MWC)

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert.

There was a lot of movement in my bracketology this weekend. After  a loss to Clemson, Duke is now free-falling. North Carolina, sitting at 0-3 in the ACC after a loss at Syracuse, has fallen all the day to the No. 8 seed line. Ohio State, a team which really has a lackluster overall profile after back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Iowa, has now fallen to my final  No. 3 seed position. The Buckeyes had risen to a No. 1 seed in a bracket I released last week. Colorado and Oregon are also falling quickly. The Buffaloes have the better resume but are preparing for bad news about leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddie, who went down with an apparent knee injury last night in a loss to Washington. If Dinwiddie is out for the year, you will see that reflected in my next bracket. Among the teams moving up include Oklahoma, which handed Iowa State its first loss of the season over the weekend. San Diego State has also continued to climb and is nearing the No. 2 seed line, but stays as a No. 3 for now. Iowa also leaped up to the No. 5 line after one of the best resume-building wins of the year at Ohio State.

Last Four In: Indiana State, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Georgetown
First Four Out: Arizona State, St. Mary’s, Boise State, Southern Mississippi

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert.

Our latest bracketology shows a little bit of movement at the top. After Michigan State‘s big win over Ohio State Tuesday night, the Spartans jump to the No. 1 line. Iowa State continues to climb and is up to No. 6 overall on my S-curve, while Wichita State is up to No. 9. I’m still doubting that the Shockers can get a No. 1 seed unless they finish the regular season with an unblemished record (or at most one loss), so for now they remain on the No. 3 seed line despite remaining undefeated.

The “Most Annoying Team in America” to Bracketologists (Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports)

North Carolina remains the most annoying team in the country. The Tar Heels lost to Miami (FL) earlier this week to add another awful loss to a resume full of them. Of course, the Tar Heels also have three of the best wins in the country over Michigan State, Kentucky and Louisville.. The Tar Heels are like many of my ex-girlfriends, bipolar and unpredictable.

Here is the complete field, seeded #1-#68:

LAST FOUR IN: Georgetown, Texas, Oklahoma, Dayton
FIRST FOUR OUT: California, SMU, North Dakota State, St. Mary’s

#1 Seeds:

• ARIZONA (Pac 12/WEST)
• WISCONSIN (Big Ten/SOUTH)
• SYRACUSE (ACC/EAST)
• Michigan State (Midwest)

#2  Seeds:

• Ohio State
• IOWA STATE (Big 12)
• FLORIDA (SEC)
• Oklahoma State

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My first batch of bracketology in a month shows how much has changed in just the last few weeks. The top four seeds are firmly cemented right now, but conference play is just beginning and things are going to shake up quite a bit before the NCAA Tournament starts.

Note: The bracket below is updated through all games played Sunday, January 5.

LAST FOUR IN: Tennessee, Texas, Michigan, Butler
FIRST FOUR OUT: Wake Forest, Arkansas, Minnesota, California

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Thursdays. 

Right now it is almost impossible to separate a No. 1 seed from a No. 10 seed in the bracket below, so preseason expectations still matter. For instance, North Carolina upset Michigan State last night in East Lansing but the Spartans are still a No. 1 seed. Later in the year, upsets like this will more easily be reflected in the bracket, but right now with such a small sample size, it is hard to compare teams to one another.

If you look hard enough with this iteration of the bracket, you might find a bracketing error or two (or more). At this point of the year, I’m more focused on showing where teams are relative to each other than I am on nailing every single bracketing procedure — although I do try.

NOTE: Small conference champions are still represented by their preseason favorite (or who I expected to win the conference). This will change in the next update.

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Thursdays. 

Right now, guessing the NCAA Tournament field with less than a week of game results would be like finding a needle in a haystack. Well, maybe more like finding a needle in the ocean. No matter the analogy you use, it’s pretty impossible. So for this week at least, let’s look at the few teams that have already helped their NCAA Tournament hopes and those who have already fallen behind the eight ball.

No. 1 Seed Race

Kansas’ Win Over Duke Tuesday is Likely to Look Great in #1 Seed Discussions in March

Winners

• Michigan State and Kansas: Obviously wins over the nation’s No. 1 and No. 5 ranked teams help the cause of getting a No. 1 seed, but I think it’s also important that both teams won their games a neutral floor. Doesn’t it seem like Kansas always gets these kinds of wins?

Losers

• Florida, Kentucky and the SEC: Obviously losses hurt your case to be a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday but I think there is a little more to it than that with these two teams. Florida has not been at full strength and a loss in Madison, Wisconsin, is nothing to lose sleep about, but the Gators didn’t look great in losing. While Kentucky looked young and super-talented (as expected) in its loss to Michigan State, the ‘Cats and Gators are both hurt by the SEC’s early struggles as a league. Alabama has already lost to Oklahoma. LSU lost to Massachusetts. Tennessee fell to Xavier. South Carolina came up short against Baylor. What is the SEC’s best win so far? Is it Mississippi’s win over Troy? Ouch!

Tournament Chances Already in Trouble

• Miami (FL): I think we all saw a bad season coming for the Hurricanes, but this is ridiculous. A loss to St. Francis and then a one-point overtime victory over Georgia Southern doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Next they play head coach Mike Davis and Texas Southern, who could run through the SWAC undefeated.
• Boston College: Not to hate on the ACC here, but the Eagles had a legitimate shot to make a run for an at-large berth, but losses to Providence and Massachusetts — who looks like a NCAA Tournament team as of today — have already derailed some of those early hopes. Next up is Toledo. The Eagles better win that one.
• West Virginia: Considering Virginia Tech started its season by losing to USC Upstate, it was a shock to learn that West Virginia had blown a big lead and fallen to the Hokies. It’s not that I expected West Virginia to be good, but I did at least expect them to be competitive in the Big 12 this season.

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

NOTES FROM THIS UPDATE:

• Although the graphic below does not reflect it, the brackets should be set up to allow for a true national title game, meaning Louisville (the top overall seed) and Gonzaga would not meet until the national title game. Louisville (MW) and Kansas (S) would have their regions matched up and so would Gonzaga (W) and Indiana (E).
• My debate about Ole Miss ended in a thud on Sunday when the Rebels knocked off Florida. Mississippi is in. Good for them, even for arrogant Marshall Henderson.
• I went back and forth between a ton of teams for my First Four in spots. Remember, everyone seems to be picking a La Salle/Tennessee and Boise State/Saint Mary’s game. Almost everyone! So, why would I pick that? I’m going Saint Mary’s/Tennessee and Boise State/Iowa State.
• I was asked earlier if I was nervous about losing my streak of never incorrectly picking a No. 1 seed. Of course! I have a really bad feeling Duke could ruin it for me this year.

LAST FOUR IN: Boise State, Saint Mary’s, Iowa State, Tennessee (last team in)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Alabama, Virginia
NEXT FOUR OUT: Southern Miss, Massachusetts, Baylor, Iowa

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

NOTES FROM THIS UPDATE:

• Louisville is the new No. 1 overall seed in my bracket after dominating Syracuse to win the Big East Tournament Saturday night. Duke slides to a No. 2 seed after Kansas won the Big 12 Tournament. The Blue Devils have the better wins, but I’d rather put a team that was a double champion (regular season & conference tournament champion) above a team that didn’t win either one in the ACC. I feel like Duke has consistently been given the benefit of the doubt due to Ryan Kelly’s injury, but the Blue Devils’ second loss to Maryland showed that this team can lose to bad teams even with Kelly in the lineup.
• Although the graphic below does not reflect it, the brackets should be set up to allow for a true national title game, meaning Louisville (the top overall seed) and Gonzaga would not meet until the national title game. Louisville (MW) and Kansas (S) would have their regions matched up and so would Gonzaga (W) and Indiana (E).
• Mississippi reached the SEC Tournament final by defeating Vanderbilt on Saturday. I have the Rebels as my last team out of the field. Ole Miss lost to Kentucky (my last team in) head-to-head (although Nerlens Noel was playing) and lacks the great win the Wildcats have (Florida). Fortunately for the Rebels, they get a chance to change that later this afternoon against Florida. If Andy Kennedy’s team wins that game, we won’t have to worry about their bubble popping because they will already be in the NCAA Tournament field.
• I also still have Tennessee in. The Volunteers defeated Kentucky by 30 in their last meeting and have the best wins in the SEC outside of Florida’s. Although Mississippi swept the Vols, Tennessee lacks the awful losses that the Rebels have (South Carolina, Mississippi State).  Besides, if Ole Miss and Vanderbilt were playing in a normal game on a weeknight, nobody would care (like when they played on January 15 — nobody cared then that the Rebels won). Just because the Rebels won in the SEC Tournament semifinals, it does not guarantee them a bid and it doesn’t mean more than their earlier win over Vanderbilt. In my opinion, the Rebels need to win the SEC Tournament to secure a bid.
• Tomorrow, look for teams like Baylor, Maryland, and Middle Tennessee to start getting tossed around as names to replace Ole Miss and other teams near the bottom of the bracket. I think the Blue Raiders have the best shot out of those three to get in, based off the Selection Committee’s decision to place VCU, UAB, Iona, and BYU in the field in First Four games the last two seasons.
• This is not my final update, although my final update may look a lot like this. A lot just depends on how I’m feeling later today. I know that sounds silly, but I trust my gut when it comes to Selection Sunday.

LAST FOUR IN: Saint Mary’s, La Salle, Tennessee, Kentucky(last team in)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Mississippi (first team out), Middle Tennessee, Alabama, Virginia
NEXT FOUR OUT: Southern Miss, Massachusetts, Baylor, Iowa

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

• A lot of things happened on Friday. First, let’s recap the bubble: Alabama knocked off Tennessee. La Salle fell at Butler. Kentucky was blown out by Vanderbilt. Iowa blew a big lead to Michigan State. Ole Miss won a tight game with Missouri. Maryland upset Duke. I realize that Tennessee is now 2-4 against the other SEC bubble teams (ALA, KY, MISS) but the Vols also have the best overall profile out of those four teams. For now, I’m leaving the Vols in my field. Kentucky is still in, as the last team in. Why? Most people do not realize that the Wildcats’ best two wins of the season came without Nerlens Noel in the lineup, against Missouri and Florida. La Salle also stays in. The later in the day it got, the more the Explorers’ chance to dance increased due to the afternoon/night upsets. Alabama has a huge opportunity on Saturday. With a win on a neutral floor against Florida, Alabama would move into my field. Mississippi needs to make the SEC final and hope Alabama falls to Florida, because the Rebels will not gain anything by playing Vanderbilt. Maryland now owns two wins against Duke, but the Terrapins’ fourth-best win this year is Stony Brook. That’s not to hate on the Seawolves. It’s meant to show that the Terrapins probably need to win the ACC Tournament to get an at-large bid because their overall profile is probably just not good enough to get an at-large bid.
• At the top of the bracket, Georgetown’s loss to Syracuse moved the Hoyas down to a No. 2 seed. Louisville is now my fourth No. 1, with a chance to improve upon that in the Big East Tournament Championship Saturday. Duke is my third No. 1 after losing to Maryland. For the time being, Gonzaga is my No. 1 overall seed, but that will change if Louisville or Indiana wins their conference tournaments

LAST FOUR IN: Saint Mary’s, La Salle, Tennessee, Kentucky (last team in)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Mississippi (first team out), Alabama, Massachusetts, Middle Tennessee
NEXT FOUR OUT: Southern Miss, Virginia, Maryland, Baylor

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

LOCKS: 38
“SHOULD BE INS”: 0
TOTAL: 38 (minus eight for projected auto bid winners = 30)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 7

BID STEALERS STILL ALIVE:

• ACC: Maryland
• Atlantic 10: Massachusetts
• Conference USA: Southern Miss
• SEC: Vanderbilt

THIS UPDATE:  Charlotte is out after losing in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals. Iowa is now a long shot after losing to Michigan State in the Big Ten quarterfinals.

There are currently 19 teams fighting for 5 spots. If you believe (as I do) that Baylor, Louisiana Tech and Akron are long shots at best (very small chance, if any to make the field) you can bring the numbers down to 16 teams fighting for 5 spots.

———————————————————————-

ACC

LOCKS:

• Virginia (21-11, 11-7; RPI: 67): The Cavaliers have been a strange bubble case all season. They have some of the worst losses a bubble team can have, but they also have six impressive wins. One of those wins is against Duke, who might be the nation’s best team now that Ryan Kelly is back.  On Friday, a loss in the ACC quarterfinals to N. C. State might have left Virginia one win short of what they needed to get into the field.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%
• Maryland (22-11, 8-10; RPI: 85): A second upset of Duke this season keeps Maryland’s faint at-large hopes alive. The Terps now can say they are the only team with a win over Ryan Kelly this year, but that may not be enough. This team’s fourth best RPI win is against Stony Brook.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 40%

Atlantic 10

LOCKS:

• Temple (23-9, 11-5; RPI: 37): Friday night’s loss to Massachusetts ended the Owls’ seven game winning streak, but in the end I think the Owls have done enough to snare an at-large bid.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 70%
• La Salle (21-8, 11-5; RPI: 38): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, two of the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. On Friday, a second loss to Butler in a week pushed the Explorers closer to the at-large cut-line.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%
• Massachusetts (20-10, 9-7; RPI: 57): The Minutemen upset Temple in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals Friday to pick up an eighth victory against the RPI top 100. This team has a shot to get in, but must make it to the Atlantic 10 finals. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40%

BIG EAST

LOCKS:

BIG 12

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