Brendon Mulvihill is the head curator for @SportsGawker and an RTC contributor. You can find him @TheMulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

The second weekend in the college hoops season cools off a bit and settles into some of the preseason tournaments. While the different tourneys play out over the weekend, there are several games you should keep an eye on as we head into Feast Week. Let’s get to the breakdowns.

Game of the Weekend

#22 Notre Dame vs. Saint Joseph’s – 9:30 PM EST, Friday on TruTV HD (****)

Notre Dame needs guard Eric Atkins to pick up his scoring against Saint Joseph’s

• After a 2-0 start, Notre Dame faces its toughest challenge of the young season in a Saint Joseph’s team returning 99% of its minutes from last season. Thus far, the Irish is not getting the production they have come to expect from their two starting guards Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant. Only Grant has reached double figures once in the two games they have played. Both players averaged 12 points per game last season and coach Mike Brey needs every bit of those 12 points for his Irish team to meet expectations. Since St. Joe’s will still be without suspended guard Carl Jones, look to see if the Irish guards are able to take advantage. It’s critical that they do, because Notre Dame forward Jack Cooley and center Garrick Sherman will face a tough test against the Hawks front line. It will be interesting to see how Cooley and Sherman respond to the much more athletic forwards than they have seen thus far in 2012.
• While Saint Joseph’s blew out Yale in its first game of the season, Phil Martelli needs to be a little concerned with his team’s offensive performance. The Hawks averaged less than a point per possession, shot a 45.9% eFG, and were only 3-14 from three in that game. Obviously, missing leading scorer Jones is a major factor, but they can ill afford to have another poor offensive showing against the Irish. Look to see if guard Chris Wilson can improve on his three points in 36 minutes and provide St. Joe’s with some backcourt scoring. Guard Langston Galloway was able to drop 20 points against Yale, so keep an eye on his ability to maintain that level of scoring against a much tougher opponent.
• This should be a close battle between two experienced teams. If St. Joe’s is going to beat Notre Dame, it’ll need to do it on defense.  The key will be the ability of St. Joe’s forwards Halil Kanacevic, Ronald Roberts, and C.J. Aiken to neutralize Cooley and Sherman down low and grab defensive boards. If Notre Dame gets its  typical scoring production from Atkins and Grant, it should win this game. If not, Martelli and the Hawks will come away with a nice win for the Atlantic 10 against its rival Big East.

More Great Hoops

Florida State vs. BYU – 7:00 PM EST, Friday on TruTV HD (****)

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Brendon Mulvihill is the head curator for @SportsGawker and an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

The first full week of the college hoops season provides us several excellent non-conference match-ups between the true blue bloods of the sport, as well as a first glimpse at some of the mid-majors we may be hearing from in March. Let’s get to the breakdowns.

Game of the Week

#2 Kentucky vs. #9 Duke – 9:00 PM EST, 11/13/12 on ESPN HD (*****)

Nerlens Noel needs to step-up his offensive game against the Duke Blue Devils

• Duke took care of business in last Friday’s opening game against Georgia State. Because of the the level of competition, the first game does not give us too much insight into the 2012-13 version of the Blue Devils. Mike Krzyzewski’s squad shot and rebounded well, but they were expected to against the Panthers. Mason Plumlee leads the way for Duke and his match-up against the Kentucky front line should be a key factor on Tuesday. The Wildcats can throw Kyle Wiltjer, Willie Cauley-Stein, Alex Poythress, and Nerlens Noel at the Duke big man. While Maryland forward Alex Len was able to have a big game against these four, look for Kentucky coach John Calipari to make major adjustments to stop Plumlee. Duke senior Ryan Kelly needs to step-up to help Plumlee, particularly on the offensive glass where Duke struggled a bit in their first game. Also, keep an eye on Duke’s turnover numbers. They turned the ball over on 22% of their possessions against Georgia State. Neither Seth Curry, Tyler Thornton, or Quinn Cook had a positive assist-to-turnover ratio in the first game. Continued turnovers will come back to bite the Blue Devils against better competition.
• Kentucky gets its second ACC team of the season, but now it’s the cream of the crop in the Blue Devils. UK’s freshmen performed reasonably well in their first game but need to put together a full 40 minutes of effective basketball. Maryland was down by double figures in the first half of their first game last week but was able to make the game very tight by the end. Freshman guard Archie Goodwin put together a solid game against the Terps with 16 points, but highly touted freshman center Noel looked lost on offense. Pay close attention to how the freshmen play in the second half in this one. Interestingly enough, Kentucky played very good team defense even with so many freshmen. Typically, defensive skills take longer to develop but the Wildcats held Maryland to a 35% eFG, including 3-19 from three-point land. Duke is a three-heavy team, so watch to see how the Blue Devils fare against a tough perimeter defense.
• Kentucky is going to need more of their freshmen to step up on offense, if they want to beat the Blue Devils. Wiltjer carried them in the first game and is as smooth as they come on the offensive end, but they need additional offensive support. Watch to see who among all the rookies is able to provide more offense. If Goodwin can continue to provide punch and they can get double figure points from one other freshman, Kentucky can win this game. Duke needs to limit turnovers and get scoring and rebounding from Ryan Kelly. He is very capable on the offensive end but needs to be more aggressive.

More Great Hoops

#8 Michigan St. vs. #4 Kansas – 7:00 PM EST, 11/13/12 on ESPN HD (*****)

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Brendon Mulvihill is the head curator for @SportsGawker and an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

The college basketball season is finally here! This season Set Your DVR (ed. note: sadly, nobody has TiVos anymore) will be a twice-weekly column outlining the must-see games for the upcoming week and weekend.  This column will lay out the key factors in each game to focus on and how those factors could affect the outcome. It’s a military-themed weekend of hoops with three games taking place on aircraft carriers and one game taking place at a military base located across the Atlantic Ocean.  Let’s get to the breakdowns.

Game of the Weekend

#16 San Diego State vs. #5 Syracuse – 4:00 PM EST, 11/11/12 on FSN HD (*****)

Jim Boeheim takes the Orange to the USS Midway to take on San Diego State

• The USS Midway provides the backdrop for an exciting opener between Syracuse and San Diego State. SDSU returns four starters including Mountain West Conference Player of the Year Jamaal Franklin as well as Chase Tapley, James Rahon, and Xavier Thomas. Keep a close eye on the match-up between the Aztec guards and Syracuse point guard Brandon Triche. Triche is taking over for Scoop Jardine and faces a tough test against this crew. Steve Fisher’s squad will have to improve in two areas if they are going to start beating top-tier programs like Syracuse – shooting and offensive rebounding. The Aztecs grabbed only 30.8% of their offensive rebound opportunities last season, so if they are only going to hit 33% of their three-point attempts and 49.8% of their two-point attempts like they did in 2011-12, it’s going to be difficult to beat the best teams in the country. Watch to see if transfers Dwayne Polee II and J.J. O’Brien can help the Aztecs grab more of those missed shots.
• After losing four starters to graduation and the NBA Draft, Syracuse is in a much different place than SDSU. Jim Boeheim’s ability to fill the talent void will be a key factor in determining if this Orange team can beat an experienced Aztec team. The ‘Cuse returns two significant contributors from last year’s team – C.J. Fair and Triche. Both players need to improve their sub-50% eFG in order to prevent the team from taking a step backwards.  The key to the Orange’s success in this game and in the future, however, may be 6’8” senior forward James Southerland. In a somewhat limited role last year, Southerland put up some impressive shooting numbers from inside the arc. Keep a close eye on Southerland’s ability to take advantage of his size inside the three-point line. Syracuse will also be able to throw additional size at the Aztecs with 6’9” sophomore Rakeem Christmas, 6’10” junior Baye Keita, and 6’7” 275 lb. wide-body freshman, DaJuan Coleman. Read the rest of this entry »

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after Saturday’s final round at the Pac-12 Tournament.

The Colorado Buffaloes won the Pac-12 Tournament in their first year as a member of the conference. Driven by strong inside play, senior leaders, a 2011 snub, and 50 of their most rabid fans, the Buffaloes are making an unlikely appearance in the 2012 NCAA Tournament.

1. Strong inside play and missed free throws – Prior to the game, the key match-ups were going to be in the paint. Arizona’s Solomon Hill, Jesse Perry, and Angelo Chol versus Colorado’s Andre Roberson, Austin Dufault, and Shane Harris-Trunks. The Buffs ended up dominating the glass with a 37-29 rebounding margin and 12-10 second chance point margin. The long arms of Roberson proved to be the difference on the glass. Additionally, Arizona’s inability to make free throws cost them the game. The Wildcats were 10-18 from the free throw line. With a tournament bid on the line, free throws are too important to miss in these tight games.

The 2012 Pac-12 Tournament Champions - Colorado Buffaloes

2. 2011 Bubble Motivation – After going 21-13 and 8-8 in the Big 12 in 2011, the Buffaloes sat squarely on the bubble. The Tournament selection committee did not end up giving them a bid and it has stuck with the team all season long. At the post-game press conference, coach Tad Boyle said he sent a text at 1:30AM to six of the players on that team last season and told them today’s game was for them. Boyle welled up with tears when asked what this win meant to him relative to the emotions he and his team went through last year. This win meant more to the Buffs than most of us could have imagined.

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Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after Friday’s semifinal round at the Pac-12 Tournament.

• Too much Arizona defense for Oregon State – Arizona led the Pac-12 this season in eFG% defense. By the second half of its game against Oregon State in the Pac-12 semifinal, it became apparent that its defense was wearing the Beavers out. OSU shot 27.3% in the second half and looked to be out of gas after a third game in three nights. If Angelo Chol can continue to provide an inside defensive presence like he did in this game and the Arizona perimeter defense performs as it has all season, Sean Miller’s team is going to be difficult to beat in the finals.
• Craig Robinson is committed  – The best part of the Pac-12 Tournament thus far is listening to the coaches talk about their players after the game. After hearing Oregon State coach Craig Robinson talk in the postgame press conference, there is no reason to believe that OSU will not continue to improve next season. Robinson is completely dedicated and totally passionate about Oregon State basketball. In a game where coaches’ egos can become bigger than their teams, Robinson is clearly all about his players. Keep an eye out for the Beavers to push the rest of the Pac-12 next season with almost its entire team coming back.

Colorado fans have helped the Buffs reach the finals

• Colorado Athletic Director Mike Bohn rocks – He paid the way for 50 Colorado student season ticket holders to come to the Pac-12 Tourney and cheer on the Buffs. In an event that is lacking significantly in fan energy, the Colorado fans have been able to provide some much needed energy to an almost empty building. It would have been fantastic to see the other ADs do the same thing — perhaps then maybe the event wouldn’t be moving to Las Vegas next year.
• Austin Dufault has skills – The 6’9″ senior showed all kinds of skills against a decent Cal front line Friday night. He can handle the ball and has excellent post moves. He could be the X-factor tomorrow against an Arizona interior that played well against Oregon State. It’ll be interesting to see how he does against a shot blocker like Chol.

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after Thursday’s quarterfinal round at the Pac-12 Tournament.

Here are a few quick thoughts from Quarterfinal Thursday of the Pac-12 Tournament in Los Angeles.

Buffs fans have come out in full force at the Pac-12 Tournament

1. It’s a one bid league – Based on the play of each team thus far in the tournament, only California has shown the skill set to be a NCAA Tournament team. They have a go-to scorer in Jorge Gutierrez, solid guard play from Justin Cobbs and Allen Crabbe,  and some decent inside play with Harper Kamp and David Kravish. They showed an ability to knock down shots tonight against Stanford and make free-throws in clutch situations. None of the other teams pass the proverbial “eye test.” Whatever that means.
2. Give Colorado credit – There’s only one team in the Pac-12 Tournament that is playing for their basketball lives and that’s the Colorado Buffaloes. The Buffs shot well in the first half and hung on for a big win over Oregon. Tad Boyle seems to have made it very clear to his guys that their only way to dance is to win. Credit his players for playing with passion and credit the Buffs’ fans for providing support. If you aren’t on the Colorado bandwagon yet, jump aboard because they are the most exciting thing going on at the Pac-12 Tourney thus far. Read the rest of this entry »

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

We are knee deep in Championship Week and the bigger conferences kick things off today.  However, the mid-majors are fighting for their tournament lives in championship games around the country. We’ll stay focused on the smaller guys for one more day. What an amazing time of year!

Pennsylvania at Princeton – 7:00 PM EST on ESPN3 (****)

Penn needs to win one more to face Harvard in a winner take all playoff game (credit: Meghan Cadet / Daily Pennsylvanian)

• If Penn can pick up a road win tonight, they will force a one game playoff with Harvard to determine the Ivy League champion and who will get the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. To say this game is a must-win for the Quakers is an understatement. Penn knocked off Princeton at the end of January with an 82-67 win at home. While both teams shot over 60% eFG for the night, the Quakers dominated the offensive glass and the free throw line. They posted their highest offensive rebounding rate and highest free throw rate of the season. It turns out that Penn has one of the worst OR% rates (#299) and one of the worst free throw rates (#303) in the country. Inconceivably, Princeton is worse in both categories, coming in at #313 and #304, respectively, so the Quakers took advantage. Keep a close eye on Penn’s ability to get to the line, as it will play a huge factor in their ability to win one on the road.
• Princeton has shot the ball 41% from downtown in conference play, ranking first in that category in the conference. Watch to see if the Tigers can pick up some timely threes against the top three-point defense in the Ivy League. Princeton is no slouch on defense either. They have been able to hold teams to 45.5% eFG in league play. However, they must play good defense without fouling, which they struggle to do. Princeton is 3-10 when their opponents have a free throw rate above 36%.
• This game will be won at the free throw line. While it’s a little more complicated than that, watch the foul situation closely. The Tigers have the field goal defense to slow down the Quakers. However, if they are putting Penn on the line because they are fouling on second chance opportunities, they will lose like they did in the first game, and we’ll be treated with another Ivy League playoff game with a bid on the line later this week.

Horizon League Championship: Detroit at Valparaiso – 9:00PM EST on ESPN (****)

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Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Oh baby! It’s finally March! The Championship Fortnight is upon us and we are quickly moving towards the Big Dance. We’ve waited all year for this month and it’s finally here. Enjoy the remainder of the of the regular season and get ready for the Madness.

#12 Michigan at Illinois – 7:00PM EST on ESPN HD (***)

• Michigan still has an outside shot at a share of the Big Ten title so this game is still important for the Wolverines. Also, Michigan is coming off its first home loss of the season and headed on the road where they are 3-6. John Beilein’s team was able to beat the Illini a few weeks ago with solid shooting and free throws. The Wolverines will need more of the same in this game. Keep a close eye on the number of threes Michigan is taking. In the first match-up they limited their three-point attempts to 16 and were able to make 7 of them. If the Wolverines are taking 20 plus three-point attempts, they are an easier team to beat because they only shoot 33.1% from deep. Tim Hardaway Jr. and company need to drive and slash to the hoop, thereby creating more open attempts from beyond the arc.

Michigan and Trey Burke still have a shot at the Big Ten title (AP)

• Illinois broke a six-game losing streak with a home win against Iowa on Sunday. Bruce Weber’s team needs to own the paint on both ends of the floor in order to win this game. Look to see if they pack in the defense and dare Michigan to shoot threes. 7’1” Illinois center Meyers Leonard towers over the Michigan front line, however he only had five points in the first match-up. If the Illini want to have any chance in these game, Leonard is going to have to be much more aggressive both offensively and defensively. Keep a close eye on his play through out the game.
• There are two keys to this game – Leonard’s play in the paint and Michigan’s ability to take it to the hole. If Leonard does one of his disappearing acts, Michigan should have an easy time winning again. However, if he gets aggressive and demands the ball against the small Michigan front line, Illinois can win at home. Michigan, on the other hand, cannot fall in love with the three-point shot like they have a tendency to do. Poor shots from deep makes them very one dimensional and easy to beat.

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

We are counting down until March as the college hoops frenzy begins to build. Tonight the Michigan State Spartans look to clinch an improbable Big Ten regular season title and some teams in question look for answers in the SEC.

#4 Michigan State at #21 Indiana – 7:00PM EST on ESPN HD (****)

• With a win tonight, Michigan State would clinch the Big Ten regular season title and a possible number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Spartans are playing extremely strong basketball heading into March having won seven games in a row. Over the last 10 games, only Minnesota was able to shoot above 50% eFG against Tom Izzo and company. Keep a close eye on how Sparty defends Indiana’s two-point shooting specifically Cody Zeller. While Indiana is one of the top three-point shooting teams in the nation, they do not take many from downtown and their offense depends quite heavily on the free throw line. If Michigan State is playing strong interior defense without fouling, the Hoosiers will have a tough time winning this game.

Tom Izzo goes for another regular season Big Ten title tonight.

• It will be important for Indiana to establish Zeller early by feeding the post. Additionally, the guards need to drive the ball to the net to create fouls or easy three-point opportunities on the drive and kick. Look to see if Indiana can create turnovers. Michigan State has had some trouble with turnovers including a turnover rate of 28% in their last game against Nebraska. While that game was a complete blow out, Indiana’s offense can make a team pay for such mistakes. The Hoosiers are 3-7 when creating turnovers on less than 18% of opponents possessions, so it’s an extremely important stat to watch during the game.
• This game will be won in the paint. Michigan State throws Draymond Green, Adreian Payne, and Derrick Nix at Zeller. The trio held Zeller to 4 points and 4 rebounds in 23 minutes of action in the Spartans victory over the Hoosiers in late December. Zeller is going to have to have a much bigger game in order to take this one from the Spartans.

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

#8 Duke at #17 Florida State – 7:00PM EST on ESPN (****)

• Duke lost to FSU on their home court at the buzzer the last time these two played. Going on the road to exact revenge and keep pace with North Carolina for the ACC lead looms large for the Blue Devils. There are two key areas that Duke needs to focus on in order to beat the Seminoles – three-point defense and getting to the free throw line. While the Blue Devils have the top three-point defense in the ACC, they let the Seminoles hit 50% from downtown in the first game. It’s a key area of focus because in 3 of the 4 Duke losses, they have allowed an eFG of over 60%. Additionally, keep a close eye on their ability to get to the line. When Duke does not get to the line frequently they are vulnerable. Their three worst free throw rate performances of the season are all losses.
  

  Can FSU Knock Duke Off Again?

• Florida State was able to beat Duke in their previous match-up with its strongest shooting effort of the season. For a team that is known for its defense, FSU is the best shooting team in the ACC. Their three-point shooting has gotten much better in conference play to give their eFG a big boost. Only Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Clemson have been able to hold the Seminoles under 50% eFG in a single game. They must watch the turnovers though as they are turning the ball over at a rate of 22.3% in ACC play.
• This game will come down to free throws and three-point defense. Both teams rely on free throws to win ball games. When taken away with good defense and no fouls, they lose. With so many of Dukes shots coming from beyond the three-point line (40%) and FSU’s recent success from downtown, the team who defends the three better should win.