Set Your TiVo: 03.01.12
Posted by bmulvihill on March 1st, 2012
Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.
Oh baby! It’s finally March! The Championship Fortnight is upon us and we are quickly moving towards the Big Dance. We’ve waited all year for this month and it’s finally here. Enjoy the remainder of the of the regular season and get ready for the Madness.
#12 Michigan at Illinois – 7:00PM EST on ESPN HD (***)
- Michigan still has an outside shot at a share of the Big Ten title so this game is still important for the Wolverines. Also, Michigan is coming off its first home loss of the season and headed on the road where they are 3-6. John Beilein’s team was able to beat the Illini a few weeks ago with solid shooting and free throws. The Wolverines will need more of the same in this game. Keep a close eye on the number of threes Michigan is taking. In the first match-up they limited their three-point attempts to 16 and were able to make 7 of them. If the Wolverines are taking 20 plus three-point attempts, they are an easier team to beat because they only shoot 33.1% from deep. Tim Hardaway Jr. and company need to drive and slash to the hoop, thereby creating more open attempts from beyond the arc.
Michigan and Trey Burke still have a shot at the Big Ten title (AP)
- Illinois broke a six-game losing streak with a home win against Iowa on Sunday. Bruce Weber’s team needs to own the paint on both ends of the floor in order to win this game. Look to see if they pack in the defense and dare Michigan to shoot threes. 7’1” Illinois center Meyers Leonard towers over the Michigan front line, however he only had five points in the first match-up. If the Illini want to have any chance in these game, Leonard is going to have to be much more aggressive both offensively and defensively. Keep a close eye on his play through out the game.
- There are two keys to this game – Leonard’s play in the paint and Michigan’s ability to take it to the hole. If Leonard does one of his disappearing acts, Michigan should have an easy time winning again. However, if he gets aggressive and demands the ball against the small Michigan front line, Illinois can win at home. Michigan, on the other hand, cannot fall in love with the three-point shot like they have a tendency to do. Poor shots from deep makes them very one dimensional and easy to beat.
#14 Florida State at Virginia – 7:00PM EST on ESPN2 HD (****)
- Back-to-back losses have taken FSU right out of the ACC title race. However, they are still playing for seeding in the ACC and NCAA tournaments. For a team known for its strong defense, the Seminoles are unable to survive a poor shooting night on offense. They are 4-9 when shooting 50% eFG or under. Tonight, they face the top field goal defense in the ACC, so it’s not going to be easy. They were able to take down the Cavaliers in their previous match-up because they owned the offensive glass. Keep a close eye on FSU’s ability to pick-up second chance points.
- Virginia’s offense is all about two-point shots. They rely more on making two-point fields than any other team in the ACC. Only 29% of their shots come from behind the arc. That is why it was puzzling to see the Cavaliers take 18 threes in their previous game against FSU. Those 18 shots represented 40% of their field goal attempts. Virginia has to get back to making two-point shots to win this game. Virginia shoots the ball inside the arc better than one other team in the ACC. As it turns out, FSU has the top two-point field goal defense in the ACC, so it certainly will not be easy.
- This game hinges on Virginia’s ability to box out on the defensive end and getting back to making two-point field goals. Second chance points by the Seminoles will hurt UVA just like it did in the first game. Also, if you see Virginia launching up 18 three’s again, it’s bad news. If they focus on getting open looks inside the arc, they will win.
Other Games to Watch:
- New Mexico State at Nevada (11:00PM EST on ESPN2 HD): Nevada has the WAC pretty much wrapped-up but this could be a preview of the WAC tourney final if things go according to seed. If Nevada loses in the WAC Tournament final, do they get it? Questions to consider while watching this one.
***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2014
I think you really missed out on mentioning Colorado at Oregon. The first game ended in a controversial last-second foul that ended up giving the Buffaloes a one-point win in Boulder, and the winner of the game has a bye in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament all but sewn up. Oregon’s shot at an NCAA Tournament at-large berth are also hinging upon this game.