With approximately 30 percent of the regular season already played, it’s a good time to check out how ACC teams are currently rated by some of the most highly regarded computer rating systems. It’s also a good time to compare that with each team’s preseason expectations, where we find that there are definitely some surprises.

The chart below lists the 15 ACC schools according to their current computer rankings. This ranking is based on an average of three of the most respected basketball computer gurus – Ken Pomeroy, Jeff Sagarin, and Kenneth Massey. Keep in mind that these ratings are updated daily and this table represents data from Monday, December 9. The first column is the average national ranking for ACC teams in these computer systems. The next two columns compare the conference ranking for each team using the computers versus the official ACC Media Preseason Poll.

With the unpredictability of college basketball it’s not surprising that several teams are quite a bit above or below expectations so far this year. The first team on the list has the third biggest variance between current computer ranking and ACC Preseason Media ranking (five spots). The computers love Pittsburgh this year. Pomeroy has the Panthers fourth in the nation despite a less than challenging schedule. Basically it means that Pitt has been beating bad teams convincingly. It is still reasonable to project Jamie Dixon’s team higher now than at least two of the teams that were ranked ahead of them in the preseason poll — namely Virginia and Notre Dame. It’s worth noting that the Panthers were also something of a computer darling last season. At a similar point in the 2012-13 schedule, Pitt was seventh in Pomeroy’s ratings and eventually ended the season at #11, despite entering the NCAA Tournament as a #8 seed and losing to Wichita State badly in its opening round game.

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Derek Kellogg’s UMass team was picked to finish fourth in the new-look Atlantic 10 this season, which would seem to position the Minutemen squarely on the bubble in pursuit of their first NCAA Tournament berth since 1998. In recent years, UMass has missed nearly every key opportunity to strengthen its non-conference resume (losing to Boston College, Seton Hall, Florida State, North Carolina State, Tennessee, and Miami twice), but this squad has garnered national attention by passing every tough test. Through eight games, UMass remains perfect, collecting wins over four power-conference teams (Boston College, LSU, Nebraska, and Clemson), along with high-mids New Mexico and BYU, and earning a championship in the Charleston Classic. What’s more impressive — aside from overcoming a nine-point second-half deficit to defeat Boston College, UMass has been in complete control of each of its other games. The Minutemen find themselves ranked in both major polls (#22 AP; #20 Coaches), and are currently ranked #1 in the RPI.

Senior guard Chaz Williams is living up to his preseason all-conference accolades (umassathletics.com).

Senior guard Chaz Williams, a preseason first team all-A-10 selection, has led the attack – averaging 17.5 points per game, thanks in part to shooting 44 percent beyond the arc. When he’s not scoring, he’s helping others do so, as Williams ranks 20th nationally in assist rate. He finished the BYU game with a ridiculous 15:1 assist/turnover ratio, and all of it has led to a balanced and potent offense, as three other Minutemen are also averaging 12 points or more per game: Cady Lalanne (15.0 PPG, to go along with 10.4 rebounds per game), Sampson Carter (13.8 PPG), and Raphiael Putney (12.6 PPG). To boot, each of these contributors is 6’8″ or taller, constantly testing opponents’ interior defense.

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1. Friday’s battle between Iowa State and Iowa should be one of the best games of the week. The Cyclones and Hawkeyes are both ranked, which doesn’t happen very often, and there just aren’t many venues that get rocking like Hilton Coliseum can for a big game. One match-up to keep an eye on is the battle between guards Monte Morris and Devyn Marble, not just because of their talents (Morris has done a great job backing up DeAndre Kane, while Marble stars for the Hawkeyes), but because of their close personal ties going back to their time growing up in Michigan.
2. This one’s slightly dated, but if you haven’t read Gary Parrish’s column from earlier this week defending the track record of Baylor head coach Scott Drew, we definitely encourage you to do so. Some people enjoy being so critical of Drew that they lose track of what he’s accomplished in Waco. Baylor was a college basketball wasteland in the early 2000s, reeling from one of the biggest scandals to ever hit the sport (google Patrick Dennehy) in addition to not having won an NCAA Tournament game in over 50 years, and now they’re one of the game’s few programs that can boast a pair of Elite Eight appearance in the last four years. Some of the wrinkles to Drew’s persona rub people the wrong way, but while that’s understandable, you also have to give the guy his due for what he’s molded mostly out of thin air.
3. ESPN’s Myron Medcalf wonders where the help is for Kansas’ Andrew Wiggins. Trust us, he’s not the only one. Wiggins almost single-handedly brought Kansas back to within striking distance in Tuesday’s loss to Florida, but his teammates were nowhere to be found. Without beating the drum any more than we did yesterday, it’s abundantly clear that this team isn’t on the same page. The next chance for Kansas to regain its form comes on Saturday against New Mexico in Kansas City.
4. Speaking of the Jayhawks playing in their second home at the Sprint Center, it was announced yesterday that Kansas will square off against Utah there on a date to be determined next season. The Utes haven’t been relevant nationally for quite some time, but this season’s edition is off to a solid (albeit somewhat empty) 8-1 start. Larry Krystkowiak’s team only has one senior in its rotation, so it’s a pretty good bet that the team Kansas will play next season will look a lot like the current version of the Utes in terms of personnel.
5. A defensive breakdown at a crucial point in the game cost West Virginia a valuable win against Gonzaga on Tuesday, according to Mountaineers guard Juwan Staten. The Bulldogs scored on 16 of their final 24 possessions and used a late 13-0 run to race right past Bob Huggins team. Right now, the big-picture issue the Mountaineers have is that they possess the statistical profile of a bubble team, but the resume of a squad that would be pretty clearly out of the field of 64 68 if the NCAAs started today.

1. It’s been a question all year when discussing Ohio State. Everyone knows how strong the Buckeyes’ defense is, but are they be able to score enough points on the other end to become a Final Four team? Replacing DeShaun Thomas was a huge question mark coming into the year, but through the first quarter of the season, at least, LaQuinton Ross has matched his production. Last night Ross scored only nine points in the team’s 86-48 win over Bryant, but as Ross’ recent production has been on an uptick lately, so too has his team’s scoring capability and potential ceiling. If he has in fact turned a corner and is rapidly becoming the team’s offensive leader, then Thad Matta’s team is well on its way to becoming a legitimate Final Four contender.
2. Indiana cruised in its most recent win against Oakland, but a potential key player off the bench is starting to emerge. Freshman Luke Fischer has finally healed from a torn labrum in his left shoulder and is no longer wearing a brace. Thanks to being healthy over the past two games, Fischer has notched season highs in minutes and scored 12 points, nearly half of his season total of 25. Granted, these games were blowout wins for the Hoosiers against inferior competition, but Fischer came into this season with a lot of unrealized potential. Some thought Fischer could start at the five for Indiana next to Noah Vonleh, and he is just now starting to show why in the past two games. If he emerges and gives Indiana another strong piece inside he could help alleviate some pressure on Vonleh and give the Hoosiers some quality post minutes off the bench.
3. It’s impossible to really know at such an early point, but with the good start Minnesota has enjoyed and if Richard Pitino quickly builds the Golden Gophers program up in the next two or three years, would he be likely to stay in Minneapolis or leave for a more traditional, high-powered program? According to his father and Louisville head coach Rick Pitino, “he could die at this program.” The elder Pitino was in town this week to watch his son’s team win on Tuesday night and gave some interesting insights into his son’s career choice. The father had urged him to stay on board as an assistant at Louisville and follow him there as the next head coach in several years, but the son wanted to blaze his own trail. That has to be a good sign for Minnesota fans because if young Pitino is successful he could potentially stay at the school and become a long-term fixture that leads the program routinely to the top of the Big Ten.
4. Maybe it’s time to start thinking of Penn State as more than a cellar-dweller or a team that could pull off an upset or two in Big Ten play. After a loss to a mediocre Bucknell team in its second game of the season, the Nittany Lions have now won six of eight and pushed their record to 8-3 following last night’s 68-59 win over Duquesne in a neutral site game. This opponent was another middling team, but Penn State’s only other losses were to a very talented Pittsburgh team and a three-point loss to a solid Ole Miss squad. Last night’s win was just another that exhibits that this team could challenge for a top-half finish in the B1G. Most impressively may be Penn State giving up 24 free throws to the Dukes yet still winning the game. It’s also good that Tim Frazier only scored 11 points but had 13 assists, giving credence to the notion that role players are stepping up around the Nittany Lions’ talented backcourt duo. If Penn State wins its next game against 7-1 Princeton, everyone will have to start putting this team on its dark horse radar.
5. Another game, another high-scorer for Wisconsin. The Badgers have proven to be a very well-balanced and talented squad this season, as Ben Brust led the team in its 78-52 win over UW-Milwaukee last night. Every time out it seems like someone different is taking control of the team, with Sam Dekker, Frank Kaminsky, Traevon Jackson or Josh Gasser trading positions. Brust is just another dimension to the effectiveness of the Badgers as it has gotten off to its best start at 11-0 since 1993-94. This team has shown it can do just about anything in Bo Ryan’s motion offense, with every player versatile enough to hit shots outside or play inside. With five strong scorers in its starting lineup, this could be the year Wisconsin goes from a consistently good team to a Final Four contender. It also helps that it has shown it can play different styles this season, already notching wins in the 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s and more than 100 points. That’s quite the spectrum of game styles to win them all.

1. Appraising UConn’s performance through fall semester exam week, The Hartford Courant’s Dom Amore writes that this year’s Huskies seem to have inherited a couple of traits from last year’s: namely, a knack for close wins and difficulties rebounding. Kevin Ollie’s team compiled a 5-2 record in overtime contests last year, and through nine games this season have earned four wins in notably close games against power conference opponents Florida, Maryland, Boston College and Indiana. While they didn’t appear dominant in any of those games, Amore concludes that “the Huskies have shown that they can win the type of game they are likely to play deep into the postseason.” He also notes that despite several personnel upgrades in the paint, UConn’s rebounding issues have persisted among big men, particularly on the offensive glass where the Huskies are being outrebounded 121 to 83.
2. Highly touted class of 2015 shooting guard Malachi Richardson is set to commit tomorrow afternoon, choosing from a list of finalists that includes UConn and Rutgers. The 6’5”, 190-pound New Jersey native is a five-star prospect according to multiple recruiting services, and is also considering offers from Syracuse, Indiana, Arizona and Villanova. Richardson is billed as a skilled shooter and excellent ball-handler for his size, and would probably fit ideally in Eddie Jordan’s Princeton offense. He recently referenced his relationship with Jordan and the coach’s NBA background as factors that helped the Scarlet Knights make the final cut, while also praising Kevin Ollie’s teaching ability and NBA experience. Nevertheless, at this point 247Sports’ analysts are overwhelmingly predicting that Richardson will choose Syracuse.
3. In one of several interesting pieces that The Cincinnati Enquirer ran yesterday in anticipation of this Saturday’s rivalry game between Cincinnati and Xavier, writers Bill Koch and Shannon Russell note that the series is about to enter a period of uncertainty. This weekend marks the end of a two-year probationary period officials from both schools agreed to after the infamous 2011 brawl, during which time the previous home-and-home format was scrapped for a downtown neutral court, and the game rebranded as the Skyline Chili Crosstown Classic to shed the violent connotations of a “Crosstown Shootout.” A decision on the future of the game won’t be reached until after this weekend, according to Xavier AD Greg Christopher, who said the consensus among senior administrators at both schools was, “Let’s get through this year’s game and then we’ll sit down and talk.” But the article speculates that Cincinnati prefers that the game continue to be held off-campus, while Xavier would like to see a return to the previous format.
4. On the topic of the Crosstown Classic, Mick Cronin made some very candid remarks about the state of the Cincinnati–Xavier rivalry yesterday while arguing in favor of continuing to hold the game off-campus. “The game should be about basketball or it shouldn’t be played,” said the Cincinnati native. “It’s unfortunate if the rivalry needs coaches not shaking hands or players fighting or six technical fouls.” Cronin reiterated his observation that the neutral site atmosphere of U.S. Bank Arena seems to dampen the “mob mentality” seen in on-campus games between the schools, like the 2011 bout at Xavier’s Cintas Center that infamously ended in fisticuffs. “I just would like to think our city could support the game and it could be a showcase game for our city, instead of voyeurism to tune in to to look at two hours of hatred.”
5. According to forward TaShawn Thomas, Houston’s 89-58 win over Alcorn State on Monday demonstrated the team’s renewed focus after being confronted with back-to-back losses. The Cougars certainly appeared dialed in, as they racked up a season-high 19 assists and held an opponent below 35 percent shooting for only the second time this season. Thomas said the team had become complacent after racing out to a 5-0 start, but that against Alcorn State the Cougars finally established the balanced attack that coach James Dickey had been looking for all season. “Our interior passing was as good tonight as it’s been all year,” Dickey said after four Cougars scored in double figures. Houston will try to sustain that effort on the road against a 6-2 Louisiana-Lafayette team on Saturday, which, as of now, would be by far the best win on their lackluster resume.

1. Charlotte Observer: Good article from Barry Jacobs on Jordan Vandenberg‘s emergence as an important contributor this season for NC State. The seven-footer from Melbourne, Australia, spent his first four years riding the pine thanks to a combination of depth, conditioning and readiness for the college game. But this season he’s in much better shape and is proving valuable on both ends of the floor thanks to his 70 percent shooting and lack of turnovers along with (awkward) shot-blocking on the other end of the floor. His transformation is Brian Zoubek-ian in some ways, although Vandenberg’s rebounding lags behind substantially.
2. Gobbler Country: I’m not sure how many road conference games Virginia Tech will win this year, so it’s important to document them all. And the Hokies are now guaranteed to be tied for the top spot for the first three weeks of conference play! I also like rewarding thorough recaps that give a game context (through individual grades). That said, the Hokies are better than I expected and they were definitely the better team versus Miami over the weekend. I’m with Gobbler Country in that I want James Johnson to play Cadarian Raines more. That said Raines also tends to disappoint my lofty expectations, but I really do think he’s got the tools to be the second or third option for this team. But I’ve said that before to no avail. The good news is that Jarrell Eddie is excelling in the go-to guy role, which is especially important considering the rest of the roster.
3. One Foot Down: In a more timely but less optimistic tone, Notre Dame lost at home to a good (certainly not great) North Dakota State team last night. Slowly that’s becoming the hallmark of the ACC, as everyone but Duke, Syracuse, Florida State and Pittsburgh owns a loss to a plucky mid-major squad. Notre Dame’s interior defense was abysmal, as NDSU’s Marshall Bjorklund scored 26 points on 14 shots. Jerian Grant finally put up a stinker at the worst possible time, making zero field goals for the game. It looks like the Fighting Irish were way overvalued coming into the season, alhough the team still has a couple of shots to get a marquee non-conference win.
4. USA Today: Nicole Auerbach does a good job writing about the frequent comparisons between Jabari Parker and Grant Hill. Both are in the running for most talented Duke players ever (although there’s no comparison between their accomplishments). It’s interesting that Coach K stressed that Hill was “graceful” but that he wants Parker to be “powerful.” The two certainly aren’t mutually exclusive, but it may point to where Krzyzewski would like to see Parker play more as the season progresses. Logically, it makes sense to play Parker out of the post: Duke has a plethora of guards (and Rodney Hood) who can all shoot the three, and Amile Jefferson hasn’t given the team much post balance. Parker in the high post should be lethal against a zone as he continues to make better decisions.
5. AP (via Sports Illustrated): Sidney Lowe pleaded guilty to failing to file tax returns while the head coach at NC State, which brings one of the more puzzling stories of recent memory to a close. Lowe could not have been a more public figure (he coached at North Carolina’s largest university) and he was employed by the state, so it’s not possible he thought the state wouldn’t notice. Lowe was given a suspended sentence (meaning he’ll likely avoid jail time if he avoids breaking the law over the next year), along with $79,000 in restitution.

1. When all the pundits saying that pay-for-play was coming we said that it was still a long way away. Yesterday, Mark Emmert agreed with us. According to Emmert, despite the public’s perceived growing desire to see college athletes be paid the college administrators he has talked to do not agree with that sentiment. Emmert did note that most were in favor of trying to better cover the actual cost of attendance and offer more substantial benefits for players. It is almost always unpopular to do so, but we continue to agree with Emmert’s sentiment on this although our reasons are more economically driven and reflect a belief that paying some athletes (sorry, student-athletes) would have a detrimental effect on the average college athlete in much the same way that Title IX has been perversely dealt with in the sense that some schools will just start cutting sports because they simply do not have the money to subsidize full scholarships when they are spending big money on a few athletes for revenue sports.
2. Any hopes of Providence fans that the team could compete in the Big East this year were dashed by the announcement that sophomore point guard Kris Dunn would undergo season-ending surgery on his injured shoulder. Providence has been able to compile a respectable 7-2 record mostly without Dunn, who sustained the injury during an exhibition game on November 2 that forced him to miss the first three games of the season before returning for four games in which he looked like a completely different player averaging 3.8 points per game shoot an anemic 31.6 percent from the field. This is the second straight year that the Friars had their hopes of being competitive dashed by losing a key guard. Last year it was Ricky Ledo, who did not qualify academically. This year, in addition to Dunn, the Friars are also playing without their top two incoming recruits–forward Brandon Austin and guard Rodney Bullock–who have been suspended indefinitely since before the season started for an undisclosed team rules violation.
3. We did not expect Drake to contend in the Missouri Valley Conference this year, but they certainly could have been a top-tier team in the conference. Those hopes may have ended with the announcement that senior guard Gary Ricks Jr. will miss the remainder of the season after fracturing a bone in his left foot. Ricks was the team’s second-leading scorer at 12.3 points per game, leader in assists at 3.6 per game, and also its best 3-point shooter at 45 percent on the year. Ricks’ departure will not only mean an increase burden on Richard Carter, but also the remained of the players who have essentially functioned as role players with Carter and Ricks running the show this season.
4. We are not sure why it suddenly became a major topic yesterday, but the Internet was all over the announcement by Seton Hall that Tom Mayaan, an Israeli citizen, had to leave Seton Hall to join the Israeli army. For those who are not familiar with the Israeli army, all Israeli citizens over the age are required to serve (men for three years and women for two years). That in itself would be a notable story, but the thing is that it appears that this was known as far back as November 19. Mayaan only put up modest numbers (2.4 points, 2.7 assists, and 1.2 rebounds per game) so it seems like the Pirates will be able to replace his production and perhaps he even may serve as a rallying point for the team.
5. Former North Carolina State coach Sidney Lowe pleaded guilty to failing to file taxes in North Carolina between 2009 and 2011. In exchange, Lowe received a suspended 45-day jail sentence, was placed on 36 months of unsupervised probation, must complete 100 hours of community service within the year, and must pay more than $79,000 in restitution plus a $2,000 fine. According to reports, Lowe made $962,000 in 2009, $953,000 in 2010, and $659,000 in 2011 with a base salary of $210,000 per year that came to $760,000 per year when TV and radio contracts were included with the remainder of his income coming through bonuses. While this is not nearly as embarrassing as what happened to Kentucky legend Richie Farmer it is an ignominious end to a star on the 1983 championship team in what might be his last significant moment in association with the school.

We’ve talked about it a lot around these parts this year, since before the season even began — so many Mountain West teams putting all their eggs in a very small scheduling basket. For instance, Utah State’s only really quality non-conference game was its rivalry game with BYU. After losing that one, it was assured that their best win prior to the calendar flipping over to conference play would be at UC Santa Barbara – a good victory for sure, but not one to pin your NCAA Tournament hopes on. To make matters worse, Utah State backed up that BYU loss with a home loss to Pacific. So now the Aggies sit at 5-2; they’re lucky to have an RPI in the low 40s; and they face the prospect of needing a very strong run through the Mountain West on their first go-round in order to get themselves in the NCAA Tournament talk later this year.

Preston Medlin And Utah State Don’t Have A Lot To Cheer About After Dropping A Home Game to Pacific (Rick Egan/Salt Lake Tribune)

Likewise, Boise State went out and put together a schedule not befitting for a squad with borderline Top 25 talent and arguably the best team in school history. Certainly, they’re in the midst of the toughest stretch of their non-conference schedule, what with a trip to Kentucky on Tuesday night followed by a visit from an undefeated Saint Mary’s team on Saturday. But, as could have been expected, the Broncos struck out against the talented Wildcats, getting killed on the glass and at the rim and not being able to find enough good clean looks from deep against their long and athletic guards. Now all their hopes for a quality non-conference win get pinned on Saturday’s game against the Gaels. Again, on the basis of six wins in seven games, the Broncos are fortunate to have an RPI of #40, but with no resume wins in the non-conference, those four conference games against New Mexico and San Diego State in conference will loom large.

You see, it is only the Aztecs and the Lobos who have succeeded in coming away with some quality wins in the non-conference. SDSU has scalps from Creighton and Marquette, while New Mexico’s got UAB and Cincinnati on the wall already, with Kansas in Kansas City looming on Saturday and Marquette up the following Saturday. None of the victims of the Lobos or Aztecs are elite teams, but they’ve at least helped their teams to RPIs of #11 and #17, respectively. At the quarter-pole of the year, those two squads are alone among Mountain West teams on the good side of the resume ledger.

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Every week the four AAC microsite writers (only three for this edition) will come together in an effort to make sense of and answering questions about what happened in the AAC over the course of the previous week.

The biggest AAC game of last weekend was Cincinnati’s loss to New Mexico. Did the Bearcats’ performance alter your perception of the team going forward?

Thus Far, Mick Cronin’s Team Is Who We Thought They Were

Mike – Saturday’s showdown with the Lobos was the public’s first chance to get a good read on Cincinnati and the result basically reinforced what we thought of the Bearcats at the start of the season. They still play good defense, Sean Kilpatrick is the still the first, second, and third option on offense, and they are going to be undersized and undermanned against teams with good bigs (like New Mexico, for example). The Pit is a difficult place for anyone to play and the Lobos are quite good this year, so let’s give Cincinnati some time to show us more, but they look like a quintessential bubble team at this point.

C.D. – There’s no shame in losing to Lobos in The Pit, and Cincinnati was certainly competitive. Still, I think you have to be concerned that it remains so difficult for the Bearcats to score. Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half of Division I in effective field goal percentage, and while they’re an excellent offensive rebounding team (#4 nationally in offensive rebound percentage), they would be much better off if they could make shots the first time around. If that doesn’t improve, they’re going to struggle to make it to the Dance, much less survive and advance.

Ross – The Bearcats’ performance didn’t change my perception of the team because I didn’t expect them to go on the road and beat a good New Mexico team. Cincinnati will have a hard time breaking into the top three of the AAC with Louisville, Memphis and Connecticut, but the Bearcats should be able to fit right in behind those teams and like usual find themselves with a #7 to #11 seed, making it difficult to win more than one NCAA Tournament game, if that.

South Florida scored a pair of exciting wins last week over respectable competition and is looking like a dangerous opponent. What is different about this year’s Bulls’ team that has led to the success?

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First things first: Gonzaga’s 80-76 win over West Virginia on Tuesday night will not go down as any sort of victory for the ages. Heck, it may not even count as a “good win” come March. But before we strip away all its value, with say, a game of “name a Mountaineer”, let’s also give the Zags a little credit. Grabbing a road victory, in a hostile environment, over a competitive power conference team is never an easy task. Every Big 12 team – Oklahoma State and Kansas included – will be happy if they leave Morgantown with a win this season. Signature victory it is not for Mark Few’s team, but with another “taking-care-of-business” performance in the books, the Zags look poised to hang around the top of the polls for yet another season. Of course, that upward November to March trajectory has ended in a Tournament nose-dive too often for almost anyone to take the Zags seriously these days — no matter how good a regular season they may register. The familiar question begs: Is this Gonzaga team built to win in March?

Kevin Pangos And The Zags Can Score The Basketball (Just Ask West Virginia), But Will That Offensive Efficiency Finally Equate To March Success? (AP)

Let’s hold off for a moment on evaluating Tournament potential, and first admit that the Zags are pretty good at picking up wins in the months leading up to March. Down eight with eight minutes left, and with Ken Pom’s win probability graph suggesting just a 15% chance of a Gonzaga win, this game long looked like one that might not support the above thesis. But in those final eight minutes the Zags did what they do best: score the basketball. The nation’s most efficient offense pumped in 24 points before the buzzer sounded, with a trio of Kevin Pangos threes serving as Coliseum-silencers along the way. Gonzaga has now scored at least 79 points in every game this season; this despite playing at a tempo that ranks below the national average. Just like last year’s 32-3 team, who finished second nationally in offensive efficiency, these Bulldogs can really score. Read the rest of this entry »