The cases for Virginia and Maryland were always tough to make. Both teams were able to hang their hats on seriously good wins, yet both also had some of the ugliest losses on the bubble. That these two teams found themselves on the wrong side looking in Sunday evening isn’t all too surprising. Yet, they move on. Along with Florida State, these ACC teams are set to play in that other national tournament, starting this evening. So if the First Four match-ups aren’t to your taste, there is some fine basketball scheduled for the NIT involving ACC teams tonight.

Virginia and Maryland Have a Shot at Another Tussle in the NIT

Niagara at Maryland at 7:00 PM

Maryland got a # 2 seed in the NIT and drew a team that won its conference regular season but flopped in the conference tournament. The MAAC’s Niagara is a run-and-gun team that makes up for it’s relatively pedestrian team three-point shooting with skilled ball-handlers who rarely turn the ball over. T.J. Cline is usually the biggest man on the court for Niagara, and he measures out at only 6’8″. However, like the rest of the team, he is a gleeful participant in the perimeter-based attack and has attempted 112 threes this season (leading his team with a 33.9% mark). On the defensive end, the team is effective at forcing turnovers, critical considering Maryland’s difficulty in hanging on to the ball. Of course where Niagara has a fast, agile attack, Maryland has size. No one on the roster can match up with 7’1″ Alex Len, and the trouble that Niagara has in terms of rebounding is a serious problem against an elite offensive rebounding team like Maryland. If the Purple Eagles can scramble and keep forcing turnovers on the defensive end while getting open perimeter looks (Maryland has done a good job contesting threes all season), Niagara has a shot at the upset. Without this, however, Alex Len is well-equipped to dominate this game on both ends.

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After clinching the ACC Tournament title with three straight double-digit wins, Miami was riding high. The media present in Greensboro — including myself — were riding a similar high after watching one of the best offensive basketball games of the year. It felt like a slap in the face to watch as the seeds were announced and the Hurricanes weren’t rewarded for their efforts with a #1 seed. It was the first time in history that the consensus ACC champion failed to earn a spot on top of a region.

Miami’s Eye Test couldn’t overcome its losses Selection Sunday. (Photo: Robert Mayer / USA TODAY Sports)

In Miami’s case, admittedly, a #1 seed was an uphill battle thanks to several bad losses in the non-conference and down the stretch in ACC play. First there was Miami’s game (without suspended Durand Scott) at Florida Gulf Coast. The Eagles are dancing this week, but only because of the Atlantic Sun’s automatic bid. Then Miami lost neutral-site games to Arizona and Indiana State when the team was very banged up. After the win Sunday, Jim Larranaga documented the injuries plaguing his team in Hawaii: “Trey McKinney-Jones was in the hospital with a 105-degree temperature, Durand Scott‘s back tightened up on the trip — he couldn’t bend over, Shane Larkin tweaked his ankle, and Reggie Johnson broke his thumb.”

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The First Round/Opening Round/Play-In Games/Mild Annoyance of the NCAA Tournament begins tonight, getting under way at 6:40 PM tonight on truTV (go ahead, try to remember where that channel is again). From 68 to 16 in the next six days… let’s analyze the first two games this evening.

#16 North Carolina A&T vs. #16 Liberty — Midwest Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) — 6:40 pm ET on truTV.

John Caleb Sanders Continuing His Hot-Shooting Ways Would Be A Huge Boost For The Flames In Dayton

Nothing says NCAA Tournament like a match-up between North Carolina A&T and Liberty now, does it? Like it or not, the First Four is the official tip-off for the Big Dance, and this year’s opening act pits the tournament champions from the MEAC against one of the unlikeliest Big Dance participants ever –- the 15-20 Liberty Flames. The Big South Champs aren’t the only party crashers here, however.  Having entered the MEAC tournament under .500 and as the #7 seed, A&T was nearly as long a shot to make this field. The Aggies are easily the worst offensive team in this field of 68, choosing instead (a generous explanation) to hang their hat on the defensive end, where they rank 81st nationally in defensive efficiency. Springy senior Austin Witter is the key to the stingy defense, having blocked 11.8% of opponents two-point field goal attempts, the 16th highest rate in the country. Unfortunately for he and the Aggies, Liberty does most of their offensive work from beyond the arc and at the line. With guards John Caleb Sanders, Davon Marshall and Tavares Speaks all averaging at least 13.0 PPG, Liberty has proven to be a capable offensive unit, especially of late. The same praise cannot be afforded their defense, however, as LIU-Brooklyn is the only team in the field with a worse defensive efficiency rating than the Flames. So yes, it will be a titanic battle between Liberty’s 303d ranked defense and NC A&T’s 317th ranked offense. Ultimately though, I think the difference-making happens when Liberty has the ball. A&T’s tough defense notwithstanding, we like the Flames to continue their hot shooting and extend a postseason life that they could have never expected to have.

The RTC Certified Pick: Liberty

 #11 Middle Tennessee vs. #11 Saint Mary’s — Midwest Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) — 9:10 pm ET on truTV.

If Middle Tennessee Has Anything To Say About It, Matthew Dellavedova Will Be Donning The Saint Mary’s Jersey For A Final Time Tuesday Night

The nightcap on Tuesday features two of the final teams to make the NCAA Tournament field, with Middle Tennessee and Saint Mary’s facing off for the chance to meet Memphis on Thursday in Auburn Hills. The Gaels are no strangers to the big stage, as Matthew Dellavedova and company are making their third appearance in the last four years. Saint Mary’s shoots the ball both well and often from deep. The Gaels convert on 37% of their tries from distance, with those points accounting for nearly a third of their total points scored this season. Dellavedova is the leading scorer and unquestioned leader of this bunch, but Stephen Holt and Beau Levesque are both double-figure scorers capable of carrying the offensive load for a night. Middle Tennessee is not a bad offensive team in its own right (73rd nationally in offensive efficiency), but Kermit Davis has concocted a decidedly different recipe for success. Do not be surprised if you see 11 different Blue Raiders touch the floor on Tuesday night, and among that group are seven players who average at least six points a contest, with just one (Marcos Knight at 12.5 PPG) in double-figures. The Middle Tennessee depth is clearly impressive, and it has also helped the Blue Raiders on the defensive end. Middle Tennessee is 20th nationally in defensive efficiency, also ranking in the top-25 in a slew of important defensive categories. The most relevant of those metrics for its match-up with the Gaels is three-point percentage defense, where MTSU ranks 14th nationally, allowing just 29.5% shooting from behind the arc. It’s a particularly damning piece of evidence for believers in the Gaels, and the Middle Tennessee statistical profile would suggest that the Blue Raiders have more than just a fighting chance in this one. Call me a sucker for the sentimental story, but despite the aforementioned statistical evidence, I can’t pick against Saint Mary’s here. A brilliant career lives to see another day, as Dellavedova is the difference in what could be a thriller in Dayton.

The RTC Certified Pick:  Saint Mary’s

The NCAA Tournament is here and there’s more news, commentary and analysis than any of us can possibly keep up with. To make things a little easier, we’ll bring you a list of daily links gathered about teams in each of the four regions all the way through the Final Four.

Midwest Region

• Louisville did not really get rolling until the final month of the season, thus the question has emerged: Can Rick Pitino lead the Cardinals to a national title?
• Colorado State coach Larry Eustachy confirmed his commitment to the school by saying, “It’s my final job in college.”
• Missouri coach Frank Haith is still waiting for his transfer-heavy roster to click as the NCAA Tournament is set to begin.
• Could Oklahoma State‘s late-game ability overcome its lack of NCAA Tournament experience?
• Oregon big man Arsalan Kazemi is enjoying a storybook ending to his collegiate career with the Ducks.
• Saint Louis starting forward Grandy Glaze does not have very impressive statistics, but he provides a lot of energy that helps spark the Billikens.
• Memphis had a great regular season, but what it is really looking for is the first NCAA Tournament win of the Josh Pastner era.
• The match-up between Middle Tennessee State point guard Bruce Massey and Saint Mary’s point guard Matthew Dellavedova is going to be key in Tuesday’s First Four game between the programs.
• Michigan State coach Tom Izzo acknowledged that he will be very disappointed if his team falls short of its goal of a deep NCAA Tournament run.
• Creighton coach Greg McDermott‘s impressions of Round of 64 opponent Cincinnati: “Cincinnati will test you with their length and toughness and athletic ability.”

In a season where the #1 ranked team in the country fluctuated almost weekly, Louisville is the top team in the final RTC25 this year. In fact, the Cardinals are the consensus #1 team after their very strong showing at the Big East Tournament last week. This isn’t the first time Louisville has been ranked as the top dog, though. After a 15-1 start they were ranked #1 for a brief stint in Week 9, but then three straight losses knocked them off their pedestal. Around the poll, it took them a while to climb back up the rankings, but New Mexico has finally cracked the Top 10. The Lobos were stellar all season in the competitive Mountain West, finishing with a 13-3 conference record and winning the MW Tournament. Further down in the RTC25, North Carolina sneaks in with Colorado State as the two last teams. It has been an up-and-down year for the Heels, but they are playing their best ball of the year at the right time.

More good stuff with the Quick n’ Dirty after the jump…

Quick n’ Dirty Analysis.

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Deepak is a writer for the Big Ten microsite of RTC. Follow him on Twitter for more about B1G hoops at @dee_b1g.

Under the assumption that a #16 seed won’t make history this year by beating a #1 seed in the round of 64, the Indiana Hoosiers should be able to handle the game against the winner of LIU-Brooklyn and James Madison. Ohio State was rewarded with the #2 seed out west because it won the Big Ten Tournament and should also be able to win its first game against Iona. The Gaels’ Lamont Jones (23.0 PPG) is a dynamic scorer whose impact should be mitigated by Aaron Craft’s superb on-ball defense. Even though the Hoosiers and the Buckeyes are clear favorites in their first game, the other five Big Ten teams – Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin – will have their work cut out for them on Thursday and Friday. The following are some key thoughts around each team’s first match-up in the NCAA Tournament.

• Michigan vs. South Dakota State: This could be a trendy upset pick because the Jackrabbits’ Nate Wolters has been one of the hidden gems of the college basketball season. Wolters is more than just a scorer because he gets his teammates involved and will force the Wolverines to play effective defense. But let’s not forget that he will be exposed on the defensive end when guarding Trey Burke and as a result won’t be as fresh offensively. The Wolverines will benefit from playing in Auburn Hills where they will have a decent amount of support and it should help them beat the Jackrabbits to move into the next round. After playing teams very physical teams like Wisconsin and Michigan State, John Beilein’s team should be rejuvenated to play a team outside of the Big Ten who won’t necessarily try to slow down the pace of the game. If the Wolverines are allowed to run, they will take care of business comfortably on Friday.

John Beilein’s Wolverines may be re-energized in their first match-up against a team from outside of the Big Ten (AnnArbor.com/Lon Horwedel)

• Michigan State vs. Valparaiso: Like the Wolverines, the Spartans will have a healthy amount of green and white represented in Auburn Hills for their game against the Crusaders. Bryce Drew’s team won’t necessarily wow you with its athleticism but the Crusaders score very well in the half-court. They have two versatile forwards – Ryan Broekhoff and  Kevin Van Vijk – who can spread the floor, but the Spartans have the personnel to lock them down defensively. Branden Dawson and Adreian Payne are versatile enough to defend Valpo on the perimeter and can dominate the boards which will make a big difference in the game. It’ll be interesting to see if Keith Appling can get some of his confidence back because assuming they move onto the Third Round, Tom Izzo will need him to be very effective in the final minutes.

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Jesse Baumgartner is an RTC columnist. His Love/Hate column will publish each week throughout the season. In this piece he’ll review the five things he loved and hated about the previous seven days of college basketball.

Five Things I Loved This Week

I LOVED… Wisconsin senior Ryan Evans. One of the best things about conference tournament week is that you suddenly get a much larger dose of all the guys who you’ve seen for a just few highlights, or maybe a couple of prime time games. And while I was ready to stamp Wisconsin with the “lucky to make it to second weekend” label, I couldn’t help but find myself impressed with the Badgers’ discipline and the savvy, fundamentals-based game that Evans displayed during UW’s impressive run in Chicago. Plus, you can’t help but love the flat top.

Ryan Evans’ Team Impressed Over the Weekend

I LOVED… Jim Larranaga completing an incredible ACC turnaround. Winning both the regular season and conference tournament titles is a truly great accomplishment, and it seems like so often that we see teams have a great start to conference play and then flare out as we get into the tough March games that really make or break you. Though I still think the Hurricanes are vulnerable, with Shane Larkin leading the way, Miami is definitely capable of a big run, too.

I LOVED… Tournament Week. I’m embarrassed to guess how many hours I spent in front of the TV last week, but it was definitely justified. The Big Ten tourney alone was enough, but additional quality finals in the Big 12, ACC and Big East, among others, made this a vintage Couch Potato weekend.

I LOVED… how Greg Anthony has somehow gotten himself into every other college basketball TV commercial.

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1. Ben Howland’s future at UCLA is still in question. Howland has deflected all questions about his job status to athletic director Dan Guerrero, and with a difficult match-up looming against Minnesota in the NCAA Tournament, it’s still not clear what the head coach needs to do to keep his job in Westwood. Would a Sweet Sixteen appearance suffice or is a Final Four appearance necessary? If Howland were to be relieved of his duties at the end of this year, he would leave UCLA with a career 233-106 record (as of now), four conference titles, and three Final Four appearances. No matter the accolades Howland and UCLA have racked up in his tenure, though, it has to be noted that the Bruins didn’t qualify for the NCAA Tournament in two out of the past three seasons and therefore it wouldn’t be a shock to see him fired at the end of the season.
2. Although Arizona ended the season poorly, the selection committee still considered the Wildcats as the top team in the Pac-12 from a seeding perspective. If UCLA freshman Jordan Adams hadn’t suffered a season-ending foot injury in the Pac-12 Tournament, the Wildcats’ fate may have been different according to committee chair Mike Bobinski. Despite the Bruins and Wildcats both getting #6 seeds, the Wildcats were given the geographical advantage with the chance to play in the West Region in Los Angeles whereas the Bruins would have to play their games in Arlington, Texas.
3. The selection committee’s message to the Pac-12 on Sunday seemed to be that the conference still has a lot to prove. The conference was given little respect as Oregon received a peculiar #12 seed after winning the Pac-12 Tournament. Also, an argument can be made that both UCLA and Arizona were deserving of higher seeds given that both teams finished in the final AP Top 25. Although the conference vastly improved from last year’s inferior product, its track record in the NCAA Tournament in recent years hasn’t been anything to brag about. In the past four years, only three teams from the Pac-12 have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen.
4. If Oregon freshman Dominic Artis feels any nerves before his first NCAA Tournament game, he has a pretty good mentor who he could call on for advice. The Ducks’ point guard has known former Weber State and current Portland Trail Blazers’ guard Damian Lillard since grade school in Oakland and the two don’t differ much on the court. Both are confident, inspiring young players in their respective leagues at the point guard position and the duo talks almost every other week. The Ducks will certainly need Artis to play great this week as they will take on Oklahoma State. Artis will have to deal with imposing  Cowboys’ point guard and USBWA All-American Marcus Smart, but he won’t shy away from the challenge any more than Lillard would.
5. Washington State athletic director Bill Moos hasn’t made a decision yet about head coach Ken Bone‘s status. Although Bone hasn’t done anything to exceed expectations in Pullman, he did finish the season on a high note by upsetting USC and UCLA at home and nearly taking down Washington in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament. Bone doesn’t seem to be concerned about his status, but if he were to let go, Washington State would owe him a buyout of $2.55 million next year.

Mitch Goldich is the RTC correspondent for the Patriot League. You can find more of his work online at The Huffington Post. Follow him on Twitter at @mitchgoldich for more updates.

Bucknell Earns A #11 Seed

Bucknell earned the Patriot League’s automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament after a 28-5 season that included three wins in the conference tournament. After weeks of projecting as a #12 or #13 seed, the Bison were treated favorably by the Selection Committee and given a #11 seed in the East Regional. The Bison will play Butler in famed Rupp Arena in Lexington. Eleven is the best seed any Patriot League team has garnered since Bucknell was a #9 seed in 2006. Because Bucknell received an #11 while other at-large teams came in as low as #13, some of the chatter shifted from the match-up it drew to speculation about whether the Bison were good enough to have received an at-large bid had it come up short in the conference tournament. According to the full seeding list, it appears they were. But it’s a tough question to answer, because it was a moot point after they won the Patriot League Tournament, and because they would have likely taken a big hit in the seeding list had they lost to either Lafayette or Army in the tourney.

Would Mike Muscala and Bucknell have made the Field of 68 had they lost in the Patriot League Tournament? (Matthew O’Haren/USA Today)

All in all, Butler is a good match-up for the Bison. The Bulldogs started this season 16-2, including a win over in-state rival Indiana, and they looked like a Final Four favorite after an exciting buzzer-beater win over Gonzaga in January. Despite finishing out the year with a modest 10-6 record, five of Butler’s losses came to NCAA Tournament teams (including three losses against St. Louis).

Of course, the key for any team playing against Bucknell will be containing Mike Muscala. The match-up to watch in the Butler game will be Muscala vs. Andrew Smith. Smith is a 6’11” senior who leads the team in rebounding and is second in scoring. He actually missed the game against Charlotte this season with an abdominal injury, and it was one of Butler’s only losses this season against a non-Tournament team. Read the rest of this entry »

1. As Travis Hines of the Ames Tribune points out, it will be a contrast of styles when Iowa State and Notre Dame meet up in the Round of 64 in Dayton on Friday. The Cyclones can run and shoot as well as any team in the nation. They rely on their uptempo style and a barrage of three–pointers to win games. The Irish, as Hines notes, are 320th in the country in adjusted tempo, far from the running and gunning preference of Iowa State. Whichever team controls the tempo should win this one. And I think with the nerves of the NCAA Tournament involved, it will be easier for the Cyclones to draw the Irish into a fast-paced game to seize the advantage and advance.
2. It’s hard to argue with The Lawrence Journal-World‘s Tom Keegan when he says Kansas has the toughest road to the Final Four in Atlanta. The Jayhawks could face a hot (and vastly improved) North Carolina team in the Round of 32, a team that was transformed last month after Roy Williams decided to switch to a smaller lineup. The Tar Heels look more like a #6 or #7 seed at this point. After that, a likely meeting with VCU or Michigan awaits in the Sweet Sixteen. The Rams wreak as much havoc on opposing guards as any team in the country, and the Kansas backcourt isn’t the most adept team at handling pressure. But that’s if the Rams get by Michigan, a formerly #1 ranked team with National Player of the Year candidate Trey Burke running the show. Should they survive that, another formerly #1 ranked team, Florida, could be in the Elite Eight. That’s assuming Big East regular season c0-champs Georgetown aren’t there waiting instead. Advance the Jayhawks to the Final Four in your bracket at your own risk.
3. Speaking of bad draws,#5 seed Oklahoma State is stuck with #12 Oregon in the Round of 64. Joe Lunardi thinks the Ducks are underseeded “by four to six lines,” John Helsley notes. Cowboys head coach Travis Ford told Helsley that Oregon is “one of the best #12 seeds I’ve ever seen.” The Ducks finished second in the Pac-12 regular season standings and won the conference tournament last weekend, yet somehow ended up just inside the bubble when the bracket was announced. Oregon has been a sexy upset pick since the bracket was announced and opened as only three-point underdogs in Vegas.
4. The United States Basketball Writers Association named Kansas’ Jeff Withey and Ben McLemore second-team All-Americans on Monday, and they were joined by Oklahoma State guard Marcus Smart. Smart was arguably the best freshman in the country this season, averaging 15.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 4.2 APG for the Cowboys. Ben McLemore averaged 16.4 PPG and 5.3 RPG for the Jayhawks and looks to be a top three pick in this summer’s NBA Draft. Jeff Withey saw the usual transformation that Kansas big men have experienced when given the chance to shine, averaging 13.6 PPG, 8.4 RPG, and 3.8 BPG this season.
5. It seems like a #2 seed loses in the Round of 32 almost every year. The #10 seed Oklahoma could make that happen again if they can take out San Diego State in the Round of 64, likely earning a shot against #2 seed Georgetown. And if the Sooners do knock off the Hoyas, senior guard Steven Pledger will probably have something to do with the upset. Pledger averages 11.8 PPG and shoots 37% from three-point range. His 20 points against Baylor on January 30 helped give the Sooners a 74-71 win — but when he struggles offensively, so does his team. In the last two games — losses to TCU and Iowa State — Pledger had 10 points total. That won’t cut it if an upset of Georgetown is in order.