Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months.

Some quick thoughts going into the last five weeks before Selection Sunday…

• Kansas remains the #1 overall seed by squeaking out two games this week against Nebraska and Colorado to remain undefeated atop the Big 12. Both Syracuse and Kentucky took care of business behind them. Despite being romped by Georgetown on Saturday, Villanova slips in as the last #1 seed but must play in Salt Lake City.
• Georgetown appeared as though they might slip from the #2 seed line after their loss to South Florida mid-week, but their statement victory against Villanova healed all wounds. Also on the second line are West Virginia and Duke. Losing two games this week still kept Michigan State as a #2 seed slightly ahead of Wisconsin and Purdue due to the Spartans being the projected conference champions.
• Wisconsin, Purdue and Kansas State as #3 seeds were obvious, but New Mexico’s impressive portfolio really jumped out at me at 21-3 (7-2) a #10 RPI and six wins over the RPI top 50. Surviving a scare from San Diego State allowed the Lobos to claim this lofty seed and play closer to home in San Jose.
• Three big climbers this week were Wake Forest, UNLV and Richmond. The Demon Deacons picked up an underrated road win at Virginia and, with an RPI/SOS in the top 25 and four top-50 wins, they’re building quite the resume. Wake might be the second-best team in the ACC. UNLV destroying BYU in Vegas pushed the Rebels up to a #6 seed while Richmond’s dispatching of Temple moved them up from bubble territory to a much more comfortable #8 seed.
• The Big East is incredibly muddled in the middle. Out of the 12 teams in my LFI, LFO and NFO categories, five reside from the Big East. Notre Dame could have been dead with a loss yesterday to South Florida, but an Irish win keeps them very much alive and doesn’t allow the Bulls to inch into the periphery of the bubble. Illinois and Virginia Tech just could not be denied entry due to their conference records despite lackluster computer numbers. Louisville and Cincinnati are also close calls.
• Marquette and Old Dominion were extremely close for the last bid, but the Golden Eagles winning their last three while the Monarchs have fallen in two of their last three flip-flopped the schools. Coincidentally, both hold a signature win over Georgetown. One team that needs to watch out is Oklahoma State, now straddled with a losing Big 12 record and just three wins over the RPI top 100.

Last Four In: Marquette, Illinois, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State

Last Four Out: Old Dominion, Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame

Next Four Out: South Florida, Wichita State, Washington, Mississippi State

Also considered: Connecticut, Texas Tech, South Carolina, Northwestern, Minnesota, Tulsa, Memphis, Virginia, Louisiana Tech

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Charlotte, Duke, Lipscomb, Kansas, Syracuse, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Michigan State, Pacific, Northeastern, UTEP, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Kent State, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Robert Morris, Murray State, California, Lehigh, Kentucky, Charleston, Sam Houston State, Jackson State, Oakland, Arkansas State, Gonzaga, New Mexico State.

Bids per conference: Atlantic Coast (7), Big 12 (7), Big East (6), Atlantic Ten (6), SEC (5), Big Ten (5), Mountain West (3), Conference USA (2), West Coast (2).

Next bracket: February 15.

zhayes9 (301 Posts)

This entry was posted on Monday, February 8th, 2010 at 3:09 am by zhayes9 and is filed under bracketology, Regular Features. Tagged: cincinnati, connecticut, duke, georgetown, illinois, kansas, kansas state, kentucky, louisiana tech, louisville, marquette, michigan state, minnesota, mississippi state, new mexico, northwestern, notre dame, oklahoma state, old dominion, purdue, richmond, south carolina, south florida, syracuse, texas tech, tulsa, unlv, villanova, virginia, virginia tech, wake forest, washington, west virginia, wichita state, wisconsin. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.