• O.J. Mayo worked out with the Miami Heat on Saturday and according to Chad Ford looked very good in dominating Tyrone Brazelton. Apparently, Mayo has become good friends with Dwayne Wade and combined with this workout it increases the possibility that Miami may select Mayo #2 overall, which would mean that the prior unaninimous #1 pick Michael Beasley may fall all the way to Minnesota at #3. Even Kevin McHale can’t screw that up, can he?
• Michael Weinreb of ESPN’s Page 2 with a look at how cheating was different in the 1980s than it was with O.J. Mayo.
• Maybe UCLA won’t suck next year. Josh Shipp has decided to return to UCLA for his senior year. Perhaps NBA scouts viewed tapes of his late-season play.
• It looks like Brook and Robin Lopez are managing to have a good time getting ready for the draft.
• Speaking of Stanford, Dana O’Neil reports on Johnny Dawkins and his transition for Coach K’s consigliere to the head coach on the Farm.
• Basketball Prospectus gives us the 12 underrated off-the-radar players to watch out for in this year’s draft class.
• As for the other head coach trying to emerge from the shadow of a legend, Tim Griffin offers a look at Pat Knight and the adjustments he is making as he prepares for his first full season as a head coach.
• New RTC favorite Chris Lofton received the inaugural SEC Sportsmanship Award.
• CNNSI.com with a piece on Oregon State’s Craig Robinson (you may have heard of his brother-in-law Barack something) that uses a change metaphor (real original)
• In related news, Brown hired Jesse Agel to replace the departed Robinson as head coach.
• Cal State Fullerton signed Bob Burton to a 5-year extension thanks to its first NCAA bid in 30 years.
• Duquesne lands Morakinyo Williams, a transfer from Kentucky, who (say it with me) “wanted a chance to play more minutes and make a bigger impact”. Williams played 29 minutes last year (that’s a total not per game) and averaged 0.8 PPG and 1.0 RPG (read: impact player)

(h/t The Big Lead)…

We know that NBAers get all kinds of ridiculous tail thrown at them on an hourly basis, but there’s something just a little more wholesome virtuous delicious (yeah, that’s what we meant) when it’s Mary Sue from calculus chemistry sociology class straddling you like a stallion rather than Misty (and her three kids) from Total Platinum. 

Anybody know the provenance of these pics?  How old they are or what this function was for?

Coming out of another slow weekend on the news front…

• This NY Times story about Bol Kong, a Sudanese expatriate and college basketball player in British Columbia who has lived in Canada since age 7, shows once again the ridiculous of some of our leaders’ anti-terror measures.
• Following up on the Orlando Predraft Camp, DraftExpress gives their wrap-up takes here and also takes a really interesting look at some historical tidbits of the predraft measurements (yes, Shaq was always a beast).
• Chad Ford has his updated draft list – OJ Mayo is movin’ on up (maybe because of Lebron’s agent?)…
• Gary Parrish writes something about buying a BMW at the NBA Draft… whereas Luke Winn breaks down the top eight fence-sitters as the early entry deadline to return to school approaches on June 16.
• Echoing what we were wondering about the media’s culpability on the OJ Mayo situation, BruinsNation takes the LA Times to task for completely dropping the ball on what is going on over at USC. Keep up the pressure, fellas.
• From the what-else-is-new category, South Carolina’s Devan Downey’s assault charges were dropped. Curtis Lowery, the assaulted, must have gotten got to.
• Longtime Big East commish Mike Tranghese, who wiht Dave Gavitt shepherded the league into the ESPN era in basketball, created a football conference where there previously was none, and is responsible for the current 16-team abomination in hoops, is retiring at the end of the 08-09 school year. The lesser-known but very effective Pac-10 commish, Tom Hansen, will also be retiring next summer.
• Speaking of the Big East, the World’s Most Famous Arena, Madison Square Garden, wants to once again host NCAA Tournament games beginning in 2012.

Like most basketball fans I spent last night watching Game 2 of the NBA Finals and assumed the game was over well before it actually was. Unlike most people I also sent taunting text messages to the Lakersfans I know with 1:21 left in the 3rd quarter when Boston went up by 20. I was feeling pretty confident in my rather moronic display of hubris when Boston was still up by 24 with 7:40 remaining in the game.

Unfortunately, I had forgotten Billy Packer’s faux pas from just over 2 months ago when he awarded Kansas a place in the NCAA championship game when they went up by 26 with 27:30left in their game against UNC–the Tar Heels subsequently cut into the margin enough to make the game competitive and make Packer look like an idiot once again. To be fair, 20 points with 16:21 left and 24 points with 7:40 left is certainly a much, much bigger margin than what Kansas was working with, but nonetheless I should have turned to the Bill James Lead Calculator before I sent those text messages (not to mention the voice mails).

A quick calculation would have revealed the following “facts”:
– At the time of my text messages (20 point lead with 16:21 left), the lead was 28% safe.
– At the time the Lakers started their comeback (24 point lead with 7:40 left), the lead was 91% safe although it would have been “over” (100% safe) according to James if the Celtics had the ball at that time.

Fortunately, the Celtics survived the Lakers 3-point barrage and Vladimir Radmanovic’s 5-step breakaway dunk to win or I would still be getting text messages and voice mails right now.

Moral of the story: Before you decide to call “ballgame” (and taunt everyone you know), ask yourself “What would Bill James do?”

Update: Apparently rtmsf decided to make a post about this late last night (an advantage of being on the West Coast) and being the idiot that I am (see the aforementioned reference to taunting text messages) I decided to throw up a post without looking at the blog even though I had mentioned that he might consider writing a post about it last night. Anyways, I just went to The Big Lead and saw that our blog was linked to and realized that this was a duplicate post. Hopefully, you can at least enjoy my stupidity. Hey, it was better than the “19-0. Next. . .” text that I sent when I saw Eli Manning jogging out onto the field with 2 minutes left. . .

We only throw this up because we’re certifiable stat nerds, but as we were watching the Celtics-Lakers game tonight, we started wondering if we were witnessing a possibly historic comeback when LA had cut the Boston lead to 2 with 0:34 remaining.  Only seven minutes earlier (at the 7:40 mark), the Cs had been enjoying a seemingly insurmountable 24-point lead.

Nelson Wasn’t Worried

This got us thinking – harkening back to the piece we did a while ago on the Kansas-UNC game where we discussed when it is statistically appropriate to call a game over (thanks, Billy Packer), just how worried should Boston fans have been?

According to the handy Bill James Lead Calculator,

Boston’s lead was as airtight as Vanessa Bryant’s pre post-nuptial agreement.   In other words, no cause for worry, Beantowners.  Even the Assassin Known as Kobe Bryant’s Ego can’t overcome 10:1 odds.

Note:  it would be nice if one of the NBA commenters verified this, but we believe the largest 4th quarter comeback in NBA playoff history was in 2002 when Boston came back from 21 down at the start of the quarter to beat the Nets 94-90. But James would call that lead only 48% safe in comparison.

It was just around 2 years ago that a fresh-faced youngster from Duke University decided to pop back a few Zimas (along with his collar) and take a late night drive around Durham before the NBA Draft. Now comes news out of Chapel Hill that Ty Lawson (basically the antithesis of Redick–UNC, black, athletic, no shot versus Duke, white, unathletic, and great shot) decided to do essentially the same thing. Let’s take a look at the results.

Two years ago, J.J. Redick stumbled into the Durham County Jail:

Polo shirt + bleary-eyed look + messed up hair + semi-popped collar = Perfection

After seeing what the ACC’s all-time scorer did 2 years before, let’s see what Lawson was able to pull off:

First off, Lawson looks pretty normal here. He looks pretty composed and is staring straight ahead at the camera. If I didn’t know better, I would have thought this was his team photo from the look on his face. If Ty wants to move into J.J. territory and possibly land on The Smoking Gun he needs a lot of work. I’m not a fan of the white t-shirt for these photos, but at least spill something on it. Show a little effort, Ty!

Over the next couple of weeks, we’re going to be rolling out our profiles of several of the top expected prospects in the 2008 NBA Draft. Figuring that we’re not the only ones who’ve thought of this, we decided to enlist some help by asking several of the best school-specific bloggers in the land to give us the up-close-and-personal profile of the players they’ve spent all year watching. For example, we probably watched Darrell Arthur play 15 times this year, but we were limited by his games that were on national television and other competing games at the same time. These bloggers know these players – their strengths, their weaknesses, whether they become Black Mamba or channel C-Webb in the clutch, and what kind of team they would best fit with at the next level.

With that said, our first submission is from the most excellent Kansas blog, Kansas Jayhawks – It’s Business Time. You gotta love a blog that references Flight of the Conchords in its title – love the sense of humor. Here is their post on the high-flying Darrell Arthur.

DA Has Huge Upside. Thanks Jay Bilas…

Darrell Arthur is cheater! To all of the NBA GMs reading this: Do not draft him! When he was in high school, his math grade was changed from a D to a C. This is not a guy you want on your team. End of story.

All kidding aside, Darrell Arthur is a lottery pick. Because if he isn’t and DeAndre Jordan is, my head just might blow up. Granted, this would not be Bowie over Jordan or Darko over Carmelo/Bosh, but it would be a travesty. Fortunately, that won’t happen because DA is built for pre draft workouts. He’s 6’9″, 225 pounds, runs better than any big in the game and can jump out of the gym. Long story short, he already has the perfect NBA body and once (if) he adds 10-15 pounds to the frame, he’ll have that too. You throw in the ability to handle the ball, a few good post moves and an unbelievably smooth jumper and you’ve got yourself a workout specimen.

But will it translate to NBA success? The short answer is “yes.” A longer answer is “yes, but not right away.” And the longest answer is the one you’re going to get.

I would be willing to argue that of the big men in this draft, no one outside of Michael Beasley has a better offensive arsenal than Arthur. Unfortunately, one of the big separating points between him and Beasley is that he can’t really create off the dribble. As you may know, Beasley can. As you may also know, in the 1-on-1 age of the NBA this could be an issue. But then again, Tim Duncan, Elton Brand and David West aren’t making their millions by taking people off the dribble, either. Now, Arthur is not and will never be Tim Duncan. But Elton Brand isn’t out of reach and with a little work in the weight room, he can easily be David West. Chicago and Miami are probably looking to get more out of their picks but I can’t imagine too many other teams being very disappointed if they select a player who in his fourth year is named to the all star team, averages 21/9 and is the second best player on a team that finishes second in a stacked conference.

For any of that to happen, though, Arthur is going to have to make a commitment. As previously mentioned, he is going to have to add some muscle to his body. And with this added strength, he needs to develop an added emphasis on rebounding. For a guy with his size and athletic ability to only average 6 rebounds a game in college is unfathomable. Not only are the rebounds important but with his prowess around the basket, if he can find a way to start grabbing a couple on the offensive end, he would see a noticeable spike in his point production as well. Arthur is good offensively, but he isn’t good enough to outweigh being a rebounding liability at the power forward position. If he wants to crack a starting lineup, he needs to figure out a way to start pulling down 8 per game.

As alluded to earlier, the only real “weakness” in Arthur’s offensive game is his inability to make something happen off the dribble. But at power forward, that’s really more of a bonus rather than a necessity. The issue I have with him on this end of the court is his approach. This could partially be tied into his adding strength and focus on rebounding, but from a macro perspective, he just needs to look for more ways to score. As he plays now, he receives the ball on the block or the elbow and shoots either a jumper or a fadeaway. He’s incredibly good at both of these shots so he is able to score 13 points a game on a very balanced team. I’m not telling him to go out on the perimeter and look to stretch his range, but rather to make harder cuts or more importantly set some high elbow screens on which he can pick and pop. With as well as he runs the floor, if he expands his offensive game by also picking up some easy points on cuts and tip-ins, he could find himself at 20 points pretty regularly.

The one aspect of his game that I haven’t really mentioned is his defense. That’s partly because I’m not really sure how good he is or can be on that end of the court. And I’m having an especially hard time figuring out how well it will translate to the NBA. On the one hand, he has great instincts, long arms, a great vertical and he slides his feet as well or better than any other big man in the draft (possible exception of Mbah a Moute). But in spite of all those attributes, he consistently found himself in some foul trouble and was nothing more than a solid defender. If I had to guess, that’s what I would figure he’ll amount to at the next level as well – he’ll make some plays and he won’t be a true liability, but he’ll get scored on by the bigger forwards.

As you likely assumed before you even read a word of this, I’m high on Arthur’s NBA potential. And certainly there is a level of bias in that assumption. But more than that, I just feel like he’s at his best when he’s playing against the best. Look at his 20/10 against Memphis or during the regular season when he scored 20, 22, & 16 against Arizona, Texas & Texas again. If that’s not enough, look back to last year when in only his 6th game and in only 16 minutes he put up 19/9 in leading Kansas past the defending and eventual National Champion Florida Gators. It’s also worth noting that in that game he went up against two top 10 picks in Horford (9/8 ) and Noah (17/4), a second round pick in Chris Richard (2/5) and that Mareese Speights played 2 minutes, picking up 2 offensive boards and a foul while missing a shot. Darrell Arthur is ready to contribute now and when (if) he puts on some more muscle, he has every capability to be a major impact player.

Out of Chad Ford’s Top 15, with no regard to team need and simply by the requisite of ‘best player,” I’d put Arthur in the second tier…

Tier 1: Bayless, Beasley, Love, Mayo, Rose
Tier 2: Augustin, Arthur, Gordon, Lopez, Westbrook
Tier 3: Galinari, Greene, Jordan, Randolph, Speights

And personally, if it was me, I’d be more inclined to take Alexander, Rush, or even Koufos before most of those last five. But I digress. So like I said earlier, Darrell Arthur has every opportunity to succeed in the NBA. And now you know the long version of why I think that way. Just like in Algebra class, you’ve got to show your work.

Well it’s the series everybody has been waiting for (ok, not rtmsf). I’ll try to limit my bias in this preview although all of my friends are well aware of the extent of my taunting. Honestly, they’re just happy there isn’t a potential Triple Crown (and eternal bragging rights) at stake here. Anyways, on to what might be the most hyped NBA Finals since 1991 when Michael Jordan formally took the throne away from Magic Johnson (and Larry Bird).

By now, you may have heard that the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers have a little bit of basketball history. Boston comes in sporting an amazing 16-3 record in NBA Finals, but no appearances since 1987 andno titles since 1986 (following that title they selected a forward out of Maryland named Len Bias). Meanwhile, LA comes in with a 9-13 record, but had a 3-peat from 2000-2002 and appeared in the 2004 Finals. However, as Rick Pitino said during his ignominious stint in Boston:

Despite all the hype ESPN has given (wonder who has broadcast rights) to the history of this rivalry–think hammer versus nail (sorry, I can’t help myself)–none of the players that led the franchises to their numerous titles will be walking through that door except for some guy named Kobe Bryant. So instead of focusing on the glorious past of this match-up, I’ll focus on the present and this season.

Head-to-head: Boston 2-0. The Celtics won a November matchup in Boston 107-94 and a December matchup in Los Angeles 110-91. As every talking head on TV has mentioned, Pau Gasol didn’t play in either game (before Chris Wallace and the Memphis Grizzlies gave the Lakers the Western Conference). I could go into a detailed analysis of what happened, but I’ll just give you the link to Henry Abbott’s excellent analysis of the earlier games.

Point Guard: Rajon Rondo vs. Derek Fischer. It seems like this match-up hasn’t been getting much press, but I think it could be the most pivotal of the series. This is definitely a young gun versus experience veteran type of match-up as Rondo is much more athletic than Fischer, but is more prone to making silly mistakes. Along with experience, Fischer has a big edge on Rondo in terms of shooting. With all the helpside defense that Kobe demands, Fischer will likely get a lot of shots. Advantage: Fischer. This match-up is closer than you might think because of Rondo’s athleticism and his surprising maturity. Unfortunately for Boston, Rondo is too inconsistent to give Boston the advantage at PG, but if he plays well he should be able to equal Fischer.

Shooting Guard: Ray Allen vs. Kobe Bryant. Somehow this turned into a rivalry soon after Shaq left LA and Ray Allen told the media that Kobe would go to to Mitch Kupchak in a few years and demand a trade (a few years later. . .). Later, Kobe said that he and Jesus Shuttlesworth shouldn’t be mentioned in the same sentence. Now, the two All-Stars are saying that there never really was a feud. Why do I bring this up? Well because even though these two play the same position, I can’t see them guarding each other much. LA might put Kobe on Allen particularly if he goes into another one of his funks, but Kobe roams too much and that’s a very bad idea against Allen even if he hasn’t been performing up to his standard. As for Allen guarding Kobe, even Doc Rivers isn’t that dumb. Kobe will see a steady diet of James Posey and occasionally Paul Pierce although Ray Allen will probably play some matador defense against him early in the game as Kobe will probably defer to his teammates early as he notes “I can get off any time I want” (insert Colorado hotel room joke here). Advantage: Kobe. This one isn’t even close. Allen has sort of become a wild card for the Celtics. Even when he’s on this position goes to Kobe and the Lakers, but if Allen can hit from the outside he can keep Boston in the series.

Small Forward: Paul Pierce vs. Vladimir Radmanovic. This might be the biggest mismatch of the series (not including the coaches). If they match up head-to-head, Pierce will dominate Vlad. As Shaq once said, “My name is Shaquille O’Neal and Paul Pierce is the motherfucking truth. Quote me on that and don’t take nothing out. I knew he could play, but I didn’t know he could play like this. Paul Pierce is the truth.” An Inglewood native, Pierce grew up idolizing Magic and the Showtime Lakers, but during his time in green, he has torched the Lakers for a career average of 27.9 PPG (his most against any team). My guess is that Kobe will be guarding Pierce in crunchtime. The rest of the time Vlad will try to stay in front of him. The key for LA is for Vlad to hit his 3s, which usually energizes the Hollywood crowd (if it’s after the 6 minute mark in the 2nd quarter when the crowd shows up) and will make Pierce or whoever is guarding him work. Advantage: Pierce. Big edge although this might turn into a Kobe vs. Pierce match-up, which Kobe would still win.

Power Forward: Kevin Garnett vs. Lamar Odom. This is the most interesting match-up of the series. Although Pierce is Boston’s go-to guy, KG is the heart-and-soul of the team. Usually he is able to dominate at the 4 because he is much more versatile than the opposing player. However, Odom’s unique skill set could theoretically pose a problem for KG especially with the amount of help defense he will have to play with Kobe and Gasol. Odom has the type of game that could limit KG’s ability to roam, but Odom is so inconsistent that it may not matter. Advantage: Garnett. If you look at the match-up on paper based on skills, it would be pretty close other than defense, which Odom doesn’t seem to care about most of the time. However, KG’s consistency and effort wins out over Odom’s tendency to space out (insert bong joke here).

Center: Kendrick Perkins vs. Pau Gasol. The Boston fans will really hate Chris Wallace by the time this series is over. Not only did he kill a few years of Paul Pierce’s prime by trading Joe Johnson for Rodney Rogers and Tony Delk (some blame falls on Paul Gaston, the Celtics owner at the time, who refused to resign either player), but he also gave the Lakers Gasol, who poses a tough match-up for Perkins. One of the 3 straight-to-pro starters this series (you probably know the other two) Perkins has grown a lot this year. Playing alongside KG has certainly helped during games, but perhaps more importantly off the court in practice and it shows in his improved performance. Unfortunately for Kendrick, Gasol is basically the worst match-up he could have. While Perkins is a hard-nosed defender with good strength, he isn’t particularly agile and the Lakers pick-and-roll with Kobe and Gasol could give Celtics fans nightmares over the next 2 weeks. Gasol will probably dominate this match-up unless Perkins can somehow turn this into a physical match-up. To limit the Lakers advantage, Perkins will have to try and dominate the glass as the Lakers don’t really have a great rebounder (Gasol can put up numbers, but isn’t going to get physical) while the Celtics have two (Perkins and Garnett). Advantage: Gasol. The Lakers have a clear advantage here as Gasol is one of the best centers in the league, but it’s closer than most people think. Perkins has had some big games in the playoffs and will need to do so in this series if the Celtics are to win #17.

Bench: James Posey, P.J. Brown, Eddie House, Leon Powe, Glen Davis, Tony Allen, & Sam Cassell vs. Luke Walton, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmer, Ronny Turiaf, & Trevor Ariza. The Celtics will probably use Posey quite a bit on Kobe and Brown on Gasol as neither of the Celtic starters appear to match up particularly well. If Posey can focus on staying in front of Kobe and knock down 3s on kickouts, he could become an important facto in the series. Outside of Posey, Brown and House are the most likely to play key roles in this series. Brown primarily for his interior presence against Gasol and House to spot up for 3s assuming Doc notices Cassell couldn’t cut it in a YMCA league. Powe and Big Baby could also contribute in spots, but I have a feeling that Doc will yank around their minutes too much to give either a chance to contribute for more than a game or two. If Doc is smart, Allen and Cassell won’t take off their warm-ups as neither of them has contributed much this season. Meanwhile, the Lakers have a very strong bench. I’m pretty sure Walton would start on most teams in the league. He’s one of the rare players who can come into the game and make an immediate impact, which I attribute to Luke being one of the few players in the NBA who plays with his head instead of his body. Vujacic and Farmer have also proven to be valuable and will spell Fischer when Rondo starts to wear him out. Both of them can hit 3s, which will make them valuable when Kobe decides to drive. As for Turiaf, he’s not a great player, but he’s the only legit thing the Lakers have as a 4/5 backup. Advantage: Lakers. This may be the difference in the series even if Doc doesn’t screw up the rotations like he usually does.

Coaching: Phil Jackson vs. Doc Rivers. The Zen Master with 9 rings as a coach (tied with Red Auerbach) and 11 rings overall (tied with Bill Russell) versus the least stable rotation in basketball history. Advantage: Jackson. This is probably the biggest mismatch in Finals history. Even Ubuntu can’t save Doc in this one and it might cost the Celtics a shot at the title.

Prediction: Lakers in 6. If the Celtics play to their potential (that means you Ray), I think they can win, but he’s just been so inconsistent and the Lakers have been so dominant (in a better conference) that I just can’t pick them to win as much as it kills me if you haven’t caught my bias in the preview. I think LA and Boston will split the opening 2 games and Boston will come back to win 1 of 3 in LA before Kobe takes over in Game 6 and puts the Celtics away.

Remember Gus Gilchrist?  He’s the 6’9 forward who we took to task last year around this time for backing out of his commitment to Virginia Tech based on the tragic school shootings there last April.  He said that he was “mentally unprepared” to deal with the fallout of that situation, and instead decided to sit out his first year.  We wondered aloud at the time whether Gilchrist wasn’t using his newfound status as a highly-rated recruit to leverage the Va Tech shootings into a better landing spot for himself, and last fall he re-committed to Gary Williams’ Maryland Terrapins, enrolling in January.

Fast forward to the current spring, and Hot Wing Gary’s program appears to be crumbling like the steps of Rome.  Super-juco Tyree Evans backed out of his commitment over the Memorial Day weekend, and Bobby Maze (another recruit) won’t be making it to College Park either.  One of Gary’s expected returnees, freshman forward Shane Walker, already transferred out of the program in April.  The rats appear to be jumping ship, and despite “Once I commit to something, I’m committed,” (yeah!  irony!) Gilchrist has proven that he’s not one to hang around in the face of adversity.  From the Baltimore Sun:

Gus Gilchrist, a talented 6-foot-9, 235-pound forward who was expected to play a major role next season, asked for his release so he could possibly play immediately at another school outside the Atlantic Coast Conference. Because of ACC rules, Gilchrist had to sit out the first semester of games because he had initially signed to play at Virginia Tech.  “Gus has asked for a release to explore other options which may allow him to play more games at another university outside the ACC, pending an NCAA waiver,” Maryland coach Gary Williams said in a prepared statement released by the university.

Once again with Gilchrist, rumors are surfacing that West Virginia is a possible destination.  Joe Alexander appears to be headed to the L, and Gilchrist would likely be eligible to play right away.  That is, until Gilchrist decides that he finds mountaineers distasteful and he wants to play somewhere else after the first semester.  Next stop – back to Virginia Tech (it’s safe there now)!    

Insert the obligatory joke about President Bush’s My Pet Goat attention span, but he always seems to enjoy these meetings with various sports champions. Kansas’s visit yesterday was no different. We’re working on getting a Youtube video up of the event, but for now this link will have to suffice (update – got it below). We think Big Shot Mario should get an agent soon so that he can purchase a suit that fits him. And when did Danny Manning grow to eight feet tall??