Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

It is not hard to predict the nation’s top freshmen in a given season. Typically, general recruiting rankings do a pretty decent job aiming at a consensus. They pinpoint the players offering the greatest upside and promise at the college level, with an eye toward NBA potential. And most of the time, they are right. We watched this phenomenon unfold last season in the grandest fashion, when the Kentucky Wildcats took in another batch of top recruits, coalesced into a cohesive unit, captivated the college hoops landscape with an unprecedented brand of togetherness and selflessness, and shattered old axioms about the importance of  experience and veteran leadership in the NCAA Tournament, all en route to a national championship. To be clear: 2011-12 Kentucky’s freshmen were not what we call elite; they were special, precocious in so many ways, far ahead of expected developmental paths. Not every top 10 recruit is an Anthony Davis or Michael Kidd Gilchrist or Marquis Teague. Most of the time, the blue chippers – the recruiting crème de la crème, the five-stars, or whatever moniker works for you – are extremely capable players with high developmental curves, packaged with a specific trait (athleticism, floor vision, shot-blocking, you name it) that separates them from the rest of the pack. If you can land one of these players, your team, needless to say, is extremely fortunate. Sealing one of these guys means instant credibility and, if all goes according to plan, success.

So much of the Sun Devils’ season depends on Jahii Carson’s ability to produce right away (Photo credit: US Presswire).

There are times when these recruiting gems don’t pan out at the next level, when lower-ranked players outplay their more-touted classmates. This can happen for a number of reasons. Often times, it has to do with opportunity, the sheer need-based requirements certain programs afford to incoming freshmen. When teams lose a significant number of minutes of starters from the previous season, freshmen – whatever their star ranking – are often asked to step in and fill the void. These players are in better position to have big debut seasons than higher-ranked freshmen who get buried on the depth charts (or redshirt) of deep and experienced rosters. It’s why some prospects spurn established programs with winning track records to chase more playing time at a less-prominent hoops locale. They step on campus expecting to play right away. Coaches have long since used this carrot as a recruiting trick. My job is to pin down these players. By surveying each team’s positional needs, and the recruiting work they did to fill those needs, I’ve come up with a group of newcomers who figure to play important roles on their respective teams. Selections may coincide with the top-end of 2012’s recruiting rankings, but inclusion is based more on circumstance than bare talent and scouting merits.

Jahii Carson – Arizona State. Unless Arizona State shows significant improvement in 2012-13, just one year after posting a 10-21 record and 10^th place finish in an abysmal Pac-12, coach Herb Sendek’s seventh season at the school could be his last. Preventing that fateful outcome will hinge largely on Carson’s ability to navigate the backcourt and facilitate the Sun Devils’ offense, whose 98.4 adjusted offensive efficiency rating ranked near the bottom of Pac-12 teams, according to kenpom.com. Carson, who was ruled an academic non-qualifier last season, will be handed the reins on offense. He spurned offers from the likes of UCLA, Arizona, Washington and Memphis to stay in his home state. Now Carson has the chance to prove he made the right decision.

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Who’s Got Next? is a weekly column by Josh Paunil, the RTC recruiting guru. We encourage you to check out his website dedicated solely to college basketball recruiting, National Recruiting Spotlight, for more detailed recruiting information. Once a week he will bring you an overview of what’s going on in the complex world of recruiting, from who is signing where among the seniors to who the hot prospects are at the lower levels of the sport. If you have any suggestions as to areas we’re missing or different things you’d like to see, please let us know at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

Lead Story: Trio of Class of 2011 Prospects Experiencing Eligibility Issues

This Is Probably How Bill Self Reacted When His Two Top Freshmen Were Ruled Ineligible.

Kansas Duo Out For 2011-12 Season, Louisville’s Blackshear In Danger. Kansas freshmen small forward Ben McLemore  and power forward Jamari Traylor were ruled ineligible by the NCAA, head coach Bill Self announced Friday. The pair of forwards were declared partial qualifiers meaning they can’t take part in any team activities until the beginning of the second semester and can’t participate in any games in the upcoming basketball season. This comes as a shocker since the Jayhawks’ coaching staff thought the duo would indubitably qualify although this isn’t the first time Kansas has had trouble with freshman qualifying. Just last month, the NCAA deemed freshman power forward Braeden Anderson a partial qualifier who can’t accept a scholarship for the 2011-12 school year. Louisville freshman shooting guard Wayne Blackshear is also undergoing eligibility issues. Although Cardinal head coach Rick Pitino remains optimistic regarding Blackshear’s chances of being cleared, this isn’t the first time a Louisville freshman faced eligibility issues either. Last month, shooting guard Kevin Ware (yes, that Kevin Ware) was ruled ineligible for the year although he could play games in the spring semester if his SAT scores increase (which he’ll be re-taking next week).

What They’re Saying [About Midnight Madness]

We’ve had a lot of coverage here at RTC on Midnight Madness from the best events to the best dunks and the best stories via Twitter, but now we get to take a look at what the best prospects in the country had to say about the celebrations to kick off the college basketball year.

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If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

General News

• 2011 Cougar Hardwood Classic: Washington State, Pepperdine To Play At Key Arena: “Another year, another mid-major conference opponent.” (Coug Center)
• Michigan Expected to Face Arkansas During 2011-12 Season: “ESPN’s Andy Katz is reporting that Michigan is likely to add Arkansas to its 2011-12 schedule. Katz notes that the Arkansas game is expected to be lined up sometime during the Big Ten season.” (UM Hoops)
• The latest on LSU transfer Garrett Green: An update on Indiana’s attempt to land the 6’11” center. (Inside the Hall)
• Turgeon Will Play Four Guards “on a Consistent Basis”: “A four-guard look, ala old-school Villanova, is pretty much the only way Maryland can get five ACC-starter-level players on the floor at the same time. They’ll obviously be left with a pretty massive size deficiency, but it’s nothing Maryland fans aren’t familiar with: remember, this is the team that made the NCAA tournament with a 6-6 center. I’m assuming they’ll try to run-and-gun to make up for the overall lack of size, pushing the tempo in an attempt to tire out the bigger players.” (Testudo Times)