Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

Bracket Math: Below there are 33 locks along the right column. Basically, that number means that if none of my “locks” clinches an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, there are only four at-large spots available. In most years, an average of around six “locks” win automatic bids, meaning there are 10 unclinched spots for the NCAA Tournament. I also have five teams in the “should be in” category, meaning I project their odds of getting an at-large bid at 70% or higher. If those teams ultimately get in, there are five total spots available for the teams you see below in my bubble watch. Remember that bid stealers will potentially shrink that number.

LOCKS: 33
“SHOULD BE INS”: 5
TOTAL: 38 (minus six for projected auto bid winners = 32)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 5

• Odds Improving: North Carolina (now a lock), Illinois (lock), Memphis
• Odds Decreasing: Baylor, Louisiana Tech

BELMONT CAN MAKE THINGS EASIER ON BUBBLE TEAMS SATURDAY

If Belmont wins on Saturday against Murray State, bubble teams can sleep a little better on Saturday night. The Bruins are in position to potentially steal an at-large bid if they need one. If they win the OVC, we can take them off the bubble, leaving a spot that may or may not be there depending on how the committee evaluates Belmont. The Bruins have six wins against the top 100, so they’d probably be right on the cut line.

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF MARCH 8, 2013

ACC: Four Locks, Two Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Virginia (20-10, 10-7; RPI: 64): The Cavaliers have been a strange bubble case all season. They have some of the worst losses a bubble team can have, but they also had six impressive wins.  One of those wins is against Duke. Virginia’s lost to Florida State on Thursday night once again showed how up and down this team can be. The finale against Maryland is now a must win and a few wins in the ACC Tournament are needed as well. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%Maryland (20-10, 8-9; RPI: 84): Maryland has two great wins (Duke, N. C. State) and absolutely nothing behind them. I have a hard team seeing this team getting an at-large bid without a win at Virginia on Saturday and a deep run in the ACC Tournament. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45%

Atlantic 10: Three Locks, Four Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

La Salle (21-7, 11-4; RPI: 38): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, two of the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. The season finale against Butler is gigantic for their at-large hopes. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Temple (22-8, 10-5; RPI: 41): The Owls are the kind of team that makes a bracketologist’s job very difficult. A win over Syracuse looks fantastic, but losses to Canisius, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s, and Xavier cannot be ignored. Six straight wins, including a comeback victory against Detroit, has the Owls on the good side of the bubble right now. The season finale against VCU on Saturday could make or break the Owls’ season. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Massachusetts (18-10, 8-7; RPI: 54): Massachusetts lost three straight games before back to back wins against Xavier and Dayton. The Minutemen only have one win against the RPI top 50, but seven against the RPI top 100. Thursday night’s loss to Butler may have sealed this team’s fate though. Massachusetts has some decent wins (as I noted) but nothing that really catches attention. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40% Charlotte (18-10, 6-8; RPI: 70): Six losses in sevens games a few weeks ago pushed the 49ers to the brink of at-large elimination. Wins over La Salle and Butler keep them here, but they have to win their season finale versus Saint Joseph’s and make the Atlantic Ten final. AT-LARGE ODDS: 35%

Big 12: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Oklahoma (20-9, 11-6; RPI: 25): The Sooners have great wins against Oklahoma and Kansas to go along with six other top 100 victories. If Oklahoma can take of business against TCU in their season finale, they appear to be in great shape. It is hard to see this team missing the tournament at this juncture. AT-LARGE ODDS: 75% Iowa State (20-10, 10-7; RPI: 51): It’s really too bad that the Cyclones could not finish off what would have been a huge upset over Kansas last Tuesday. At least Iowa State did rebound by winning against Oklahoma State on Wednesday inight. There is still work to be done. A must win game at West Virginia ends the season. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Baylor (17-13, 8-9; RPI: 61): After a buzzer beating loss to Kansas State on Saturday, Baylor is left with only win against a sure NCAA Tournament team (Oklahoma State) and eight losses against the RPI top 30. This looks like a season of lost opportunities. The good news is a game against Kansas remains on the schedule. Beating the Jayawks on March 9 might be a must win for the Bears to get into the field as an at-large. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40%

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Brian Joyce is a writer for the SEC microsite and regular contributor for Rush The Court. Follow him on Twitter for more about SEC basketball at bjoyce_hoops.

At the beginning of the year, the SEC was considered a top-heavy league with four competitors battling it out for supremacy. As the season progressed, the league looked more and more like that original assessment was plain wrong. There weren’t four competitors for the SEC crown;  it appeared there may be just one. The league became Florida and 13 sources of an endless supply of jokes. But nobody is laughing anymore. In fact, some are arguing that the SEC is deeper and better than anyone could have imagined this season.

Frank Martin says the SEC deserves way more credit than it has received.

Nine of the SEC’s 14 teams rank in the top 100 of the RPI (all RPI rankings are taken from RealTimeRPI.com). Florida (#5), Missouri (#43), Kentucky (#49), Tennessee (#53), Mississippi (#55), Alabama (#62), Texas A&M (#87), Arkansas (#89) and LSU (#92) certainly give the SEC one of the deeper leagues in the country. However, will overall conference depth translate into additional NCAA Tournament bids? That subject remains up in the air, but an improved perception of the league’s strength should help on Selection Sunday, particularly for those Tennessee Volunteers.

Just two weeks ago, the SEC looked like a one-bid league. Now, there are as many as seven teams that could be in the conversation for a berth. And just like last year, Tennessee is leading the rise. The Vols finished SEC play winning eight of its final nine games last season, and they are on another tear at the end of this year. Tennessee beat a shell-shocked Kentucky team by 30 points and is coming off a win against Florida on Tuesday to quickly work its way into the NCAA bubble conversation.

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

• Illinois continues to be the toughest team in the country to figure out. The media’s mock bracket came out last week and the Illini were a #5 seed. This team was once ranked in the nation’s top 15 teams and then it was 2-7 in conference with a game against No. 1 Indiana up next. The Illini won that one at the buzzer and four more games in a row to get to 7-7 in conference. Compare Illinois to the other teams around them in the bracket — they have five wins against the RPI top 26 and no longer have an under .500 conference record to bring them down. I agree with the media mock — Illinois is now a #5 seed.
• After Florida’s loss earlier this week against Missouri, the #1 seed line is again hard to figure out. Indiana and Miami (FL) are easy to pick given their overall resumes and Duke fits in nicely despite struggling somewhat without Ryan Kelly. The fourth #1 seed could be any number of teams. It looks like Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm have pegged Gonzaga as the final top seed, but I disagree. The Zags are going to have to rely on the eye test to get that high and in general most are decided by overall profile and not eye test. Gonzaga simply does not have the profile of a #1 seed.  Michigan State is the fourth top seed in my field based on the Spartans’ overall profile.
• The Mountain West is a mess. It looks like four teams are going to get a bid, with UNLV and Colorado State playing fantastic basketball over the last few weeks. New Mexico has a top five RPI and San Diego State held the Lobos to 33 points in a game earlier this year.  Putting those teams into the bracket is pretty tough, because there is not a lot of separation between them.
• Maryland was in my field after upsetting Duke, but the Terps are out again after falling to Boston College.  Temple is in after defeating La Salle. Indiana State has fallen out of serious at-large contention after a loss to Wichita State and six inexcusable losses on its resume.
• Kentucky and Mississippi are making things interesting in the SEC. Both teams are among my last four teams in. Missouri’s win over Florida practically assures the conference of at least getting two teams in.
• Minnesota and Cincinnati are sliding in my bracket, but I still think both teams are safe. The Gophers may not want to tempt fate, though. Tubby Smith’s team has been blown out in games against Iowa and Ohio State and is now two games under .500 in the Big Ten. Teams under .500 in conference play typically do not get in. Overall, 34 teams have gotten at-large bids over the last 43 years while being under .500 in conference play.

LAST FOUR IN: Colorado, Baylor, Saint Mary’s, Kentucky
FIRST FOUR OUT: Boise State, Alabama, Arizona State, Charlotte

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

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In a series of events that seems almost predetermined, Maryland, fresh off a signature win against Duke (in what could be the last game in this rivalry played in College Park) and now finding itself either squarely off the bubble or in the Tournament, went out and dropped its next game at lowly Boston College. The Wall Street Journal has already written about how beating Duke has merited a court rushing (“including this season, in 27 out of Duke’s 33 losses in true road games [the last ten years], the fans have rushed the court”). There hasn’t been as much focus on what happens to these teams after getting their “signature win” over the Blue Devils. Beginning in the 2007-08 season, teams not named UNC are under .500 in their next game after beating Duke. Yes, it is a small sample size, but it is worth taking a closer look at this phenomenon.

Maryland beat Duke, but followed it up with losing at Boston College. The Duke Hangover at work (Yahoo Sports)

Here is just one example of this “Duke hangover”: Feb. 26th, 2011 – Virginia Tech upset top-ranked Duke, 64-60, and looked prime to clinch an NCAA Tournament berth. However, the Hokies lost their final two regular season games (at home against a BC team that did not make the NCAAs, and at a Clemson team that barely did) to finish 19-10 (9-7 ACC), and after bowing out in the ACC semis to Duke, found themselves on the wrong side of the bubble.

I went through the ACC data from the 2003 season onward to determine just how often teams lost its next game after playing Duke. Teams who lost their next game after playing Duke are bolded below. Teams who made the NCAA Tournament are italicized, with their seed and round they lost in listed for reference. I mentioned the ACC Tournament only in the years in which Duke did not win (2004, 2007, 2008, and 2012).

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We made it through one of the weaker weekends of action in college basketball this season, but the band is back together for another edition of the RTC Podcast. Hosted by Shane Connolly (@sconnolly114), the guys delve into what was the biggest surprise (?) of the weekend with Maryland shredding the Duke defense to the tune of 60% shooting while also turning the ball over on nearly every other possession. We also found time to discuss the situation with Mike Montgomery pushing his star guard, Allen Crabbe, and touched on other topics such as the “soft” bubble, Gonzaga as a top-five team, and Kentucky’s strategies with their remaining presumptive one-and-doners.

Check back on Friday of this week for our shorter RTC Podblast, which will run down some of the action from this week and look ahead to the weekend’s biggest games. And don’t forget to add the RTC Podcast to your iTunes lineup so that you’ll automatically upload it on your listening device after each recording. Thanks!

• 0:00-11:20 – Maryland Knocks Off Duke
• 11:20-16:25 – Mike Montgomery Pushes Allen Crabbe in the Chest and Cal to Victory
• 16:25-21:52 – Lessons Learned From the 2012 Mock Selection Committee
• 21:51-28:30 – Gonzaga Needs Glasses- They Fail the Eye Test
• 28:30-35:35 – Kentucky in a Post-Nerlens Noel World
• 35:35-47:25 – Weekday Games Preview and Wrap

We welcome any and all feedback on these podcasts including topics for future discussion or if you want to send us any questions for our “May Not Be From Actual Listeners” segment. Hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com or @rushthecourt on Twitter.

As we’re now fewer than four weeks from Selection Sunday, it’s always fun to start speculating about resumes of teams on the bubble. On some of the days when Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) isn’t providing us with his updated Bubble Watch (Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons) or his weekly Bracketology (Fridays), he’ll give us an interesting comparison or two of teams that he finds difficult to compare. Today, he offers up a couple of bubble teams that have made considerable news in the past week as to their placement (in or out). Here are their blind resumes:

Team A

• Record: 18-7
• Conference Record:  8-4 (major conference)
• RPI: 77
• SOS: 181
• BPI: 45
• Sagarin: 35
• KenPom: 19
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-1
• Record vs. RPI top 100: 6-1
• Record vs. teams below top 100 in RPI: 12-6

Team B

• Record: 17-8
• Conference Record:  8-4 (major conference)
• RPI: 44
• SOS: 50
• BPI: 39
• Sagarin: 20
• KenPom: 29
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 0-4
• Record vs. RPI top 100: 5-8
• Record vs. teams below top 100 in RPI: 12-0

The two teams are revealed after the jump…

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What can we make of Iowa right now? That’s a tough question to answer. Most people would probably agree that the Hawkeyes are better than their 4-7 Big Ten record. Some would say it’s impressive that Iowa has hung with so many good teams — such as Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan State. Some would say the fact that the Hawkeyes can’t get over the hump shows that they’re still a year away. Some would say both. As the schedule cools down, Iowa’s conference record will inevitably improve. That means the Hawkeyes will likely be inserted back into the bubble conversation and should be right on the cusp of the NCAA Tournament come March. But will Iowa have the resume necessary to make it back to the Big Dance for the first time since 2006? That’s up for debate.

Fran McCaffery Needs a Few Breaks But His Team Can Get There (AP)

There’s a lot of speculation that a 9-9 conference record is more than enough to get Iowa into the NCAA Tournament because of how good the Big Ten is this year. However, I don’t buy it. That’s not how the selection committee works. They don’t let teams with a certain conference record in just because that conference is good, nor do they only allow a certain number of teams in from each conference. Resumes are based mainly on quality wins compared with bad losses, and if a team from another conference has more quality wins and fewer bad losses than a 9-9 Iowa team, that team is going to get the nod over the Hawkeyes.

So the question is whether Iowa can improve its resume enough to get into the NCAA Tournament. If the season ended today, the Hawkeyes don’t have enough. Iowa is 4-7 in the Big Ten, but more importantly, they have just two quality wins: Wisconsin and Iowa State at home. The team is probably good enough to make the NCAA Tournament, but it hasn’t done enough to finish in close games yet, losing heart-breakers to all of Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan State and Purdue. Any one of those losses — save for maybe the Boilermakers — could have counted as a quality win. However, Iowa fell short in all of them, so its postseason fate now sits in limbo.

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Another week, another RTC Podcast. This week’s version (hosted by Shane Connolly (@sconnolly114), as always) digs deeply into the core group of supposedly ‘elite’ teams that comprise the top of the rankings, discusses whether parity if necessarily bad for the game, and of course takes a look at a full slate of action heading into the rest of the week.

Check back on Friday of this week for our shorter RTC Podblast, which will run down some of the action from this week and look ahead to the weekend’s biggest games. And don’t forget to add the RTC Podcast to your iTunes lineup so that you’ll automatically upload it on your listening device after each recording. Thanks!

• 0:00-9:43 – So Why Is Parity a Bad Thing?
• 9:43-14:26 – Kansas and Florida Losses Most Concerning
• 14:26-17:40 – Re-evaluating the #1 Seeds After a Wacky Week
• 17:40-23:01 – 5 OTs Later – Louisville Still a Mystery
• 23:01-27:32 – Player You Want Taking the Last Shot
• 27:32-29:14 – Hey, Our Preseason Rankings are Pretty Good
• 29:14-32:56 – How to Handle Kansas’ Awful Week in the Rankings
• 32:56-35:29 – Should Marquette’s Gaudy Big East Record Earn a Top 25 Ranking?
• 35:29-36:46 – Saint Louis Deserves Some Recognition
• 36:46-38:30 – Great Battle in the Great Lakes State – Michigan/Michigan State Preview
• 38:30-40:35 – Kentucky-Florida Preview
• 40:35-45:45 – Miami and Duke on Upset Alert vs. In-State Rivals
• 45:45-50:32 – Big Mid-Week Games on the West Coast
• 50:32-53:18 – Wisconsin-Minnesota Preview/Wrap

We welcome any and all feedback on these podcasts including topics for future discussion or if you want to send us any questions for our “May Not Be From Actual Listeners” segment. Hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com or @rushthecourt on Twitter.

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season. 

Bracket Math: Below there are 27 locks along the right column. Basically, that number means that if none of my “locks” clinch an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, there are only 10 at-large spots available. In most years, an average of around six “locks” win automatic bids, meaning there are 16 un-clinched spots for the NCAA Tournament.  I also have three teams in the “should be in” category, meaning I projected their odds of getting an at-large bid at 70% of higher. If those three teams do get in, there are 13 total spots available for the teams you see below in my bubble watch.

LOCKS: 27
“SHOULD BE INS”: 3
TOTAL: 30 (minus six for projected auto bid winners = 24)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 13

• Odds Improving: Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, UNLV, Pittsburgh
• Odds Decreasing: Mississippi, Wyoming, BYU
• Locks That Are Trying My Patience: N. C. State, Cincinnati

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF FEBRUARY 10, 2013

ACC: Three Locks, Four Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

North Carolina (16-7, 6-5; RPI: 41): North Carolina has one great win (over UNLV) and two mediocre ones (Florida State, Maryland), but bad losses against Texas and Virginia are not helping the Tar Heels’ resume. On Saturday. Miami blew the Tar Heels out. If North Carolina loses both of its games against Duke, Roy Williams team may be sweating on Selection Sunday.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 60% Maryland (17-6, 5-6; RPI: 65): Maryland has been awful against good teams. The only good win for the Terps is over N. C. State, one of the worst road teams in the country. A loss Sunday to Virginia hurt their cause even more. AT-LARGE ODDS: 35% Virginia (16-6, 7-3; RPI: 95): A week after losing to Georgia Tech, the Cavaliers have righted the ship. A win against Maryland on Sunday added a sixth win against the RPI top 100 to this resume. Here’s the problem: Virginia is not getting into the field with a RPI near 100. Plus, Virginia has six inexcusable losses to teams ranked lower than 100 in the RPI.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 30% Florida State (13-9, 5-4; RPI: 58): Florida State’s at-large hopes are nearly over after a loss at Wake Forest on Saturday. This team has zero wins against the RPI top 50. A win over Miami on Wednesday would at least make things interesting, while a loss puts the ‘Noles out of their misery. AT-LARGE HOPES: 15% Other ACC teams with an at-large chance: None currently

Atlantic 10: One Lock, Seven Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Virginia Commonwealth (19-5, 7-2; RPI: 39): I don’t have anything against VCU, but I am convinced more and more every day that 80% of the nation’s bracketologists are overrating the Rams’ resume. This team’s best victory is against Belmont and the second best win is over Memphis. Both of those teams are fringe at-large teams and both had better win their conference tournaments if they want to snag an a NCAA Tournament bid. A win over Charlotte on Saturday gave VCU a seventh win over the RPI top 100. AT-LARGE ODDS: 65% Saint Louis (18-5, 7-2; RPI: 56): Saint Louis is getting hot at the right time. The Billikens are 10-2 in their last twelve games and have victories over Butler and New Mexico on their resume. Plus, there is only one bad loss here (Rhode Island). This is looking more and more like a NCAA Tournament team.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 60% Temple (16-7, 5-4; RPI: 53): The Owls are the kind of team that makes a bracketologists’ job very difficult. A win over Syracuse looks fantastic, but losses to Canisius, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s, and Xavier cannot be ignored. A big comeback at Dayton on Saturday was gigantic in the large scheme of things. The Owls’ remaining Atlantic Ten schedule is pretty weak.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% La Salle (16-6, 6-3; RPI: 35): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, the Atlantic Ten’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. The next two games on the schedule are very winnable– at St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s–before a huge bubble game at Temple on February 21. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Charlotte (17-6, 5-4; RPI: 51): The 49ers have been in the at-large conversation all along because of a great record and a mediocre RPI, but Charlotte only has two top 50 wins. Wins against La Salle and Massachusetts are average but games against Temple, Butler, VCU, and Saint Louis still remain on the schedule. Charlotte has the kind of record you look for in an at-large candidate, but the 49ers need big wins. The upcoming schedule provides plenty of chances for those.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 35% Massachusetts (16-6, 6-3; RPI: 52): It was an up and down week for the Minutemen, who followed a one point win against La Salle with a one point loss to Charlotte. Massachusetts has done its part by winning of four of five games to set up a monster game with VCU on Thursday night. AT-LARGE HOPES: 30% Other Atlantic Ten teams with an at-large chance: Richmond (10%), Xavier (10%), Saint Joseph’s (5%)

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Brian Joyce is a writer for the SEC microsite and regular contributor for Rush The Court. Follow him on Twitter for more about SEC basketball at bjoyce_hoops.

Florida’s Billy Donovan isn’t concerned with low attendance figures for his Gators’ home games. But it’s easy to not worry when fans usually line up to fill the O’Connell Center in Gainesville. Mississippi’s Andy Kennedy takes a different approach. And maybe that’s because he can’t afford to be unconcerned with a factor that has such a heavy influence on his job status for next year. Despite a 20-14 record in 2011-12, including 8-8 in SEC play, Ole Miss only lost two home games (Florida and Vanderbilt) all of last season. But this year’s 14-2 mark has the potential to be the Rebels’ most successful season in over a decade, and so far, the Rebels haven’t yet dropped a contest at the Tad Pad. Fans in Oxford need to continue to show up for Mississippi to continue its recent success.

Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy could really use a trip to the Big Dance in 2013.

In a 64-49 win over Missouri on Saturday, Ole Miss had a sellout crowd that helped fuel the Rebels to victory. Kennedy is aware that attendance is crucial for an encore performance. “We had a sellout, which is great,” Kennedy said. “There was a lot of energy in the building. My hope is that the people will continue to support the team. We have a group of guys that are playing real hard and trying real hard.” The players are well aware of the difference a home crowd can make on the result of a game too. The 9,173 fans in Oxford on Saturday represented the first sellout crowd for the Rebels since 2010. However, forward Murphy Holloway had to rein in expectations of the team’s freshmen who were witnessing this environment for the first time. “First SEC home game, it helped that it was the No. 10 team in the country that everybody came,” Holloway said. “The freshmen, they said, ‘Man, is it like this every SEC game?’ I said, ‘Nah.’”

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