1. For those of you just getting back from your annual vacation in Bora Bora, tonight is the 2012 version of the NBA Draft, also known as the reason that every single NCAA Division I men’s basketball player gets up and brushes his teeth in the morning. Alright, we’re guilty of hyperbole here. Every single high-major NCAA Division I men’s basketball player. Only 60 names will be called by David Stern and Adam Silver at the dais tonight, but the dream of each player to hear his name uttered and placed on the big board still motivates. When John Calipari infamously said at the 2010 draft that it was the greatest night in the history of Kentucky basketball, he knew that he had already set the wheels in motion from a recruiting standpoint to win a national title (remember that Anthony Davis, the cornerstone of last year’s championship team, verbaled to UK a mere seven weeks after that night). Oh, and he’s still doing it, for the record. It might be the NBA’s night, but it has a substantial impact on the college game in numerous ways. To that end, here are the latest and greatest Mock Drafts from around the web: DraftExpress, NBADraft.net, CNNSI (Sam Amick), ESPN (Chad Ford), CBSSports.com (Jeff Goodman and Matt Moore).
2. As many as nine one-and-dones could be chosen in tonight’s draft, no doubt setting off another cacophonous round of complaints about how the NBA is ruining the college game. We’re certainly not indifferent to the one-and-done issue, as we’ve written about it many times before, but until the NBA finally realizes that pushing the league minimum to the age of 20 is in its own long-term best interests, nothing is bound to change. ESPN.com’s Myron Medcalf takes a detailed look at how we got here — from the Korleone Youngs and Taj McDavids of the preps-to-pro days on through the present and future, which at least one prominent coach figures could get considerably more muddled by 2016 as the NCAA implements its progressively tougher entrance requirements. Check out part one and part two of the piece before you watch the latest crop of one-and-doners including Anthony Davis, Quincy Miller, Tony Wroten, and the others walk the stage tonight.
3. Recognizing that there’s probably a lot more of these stories than are ever publicized, we still appreciate it when we read one. Kentucky forward Terrence Jones isn’t even a draftee yet but he’s already giving back to his fans and the community that supported him for two years in Lexington. A UK fan named William Bolden who met Jones while playing pickup basketball near the student dorms was in dire need of some dental work, so Jones paid out of pocket for the repairs. And when we say dental work, we’re talking about 12 cavities filled, two teeth pulled, and three new front teeth — a rather significant expense. Players are often (and rightfully in many cases) ripped apart for blowing through their newfound riches when they go pro, but we’re glad to hear at least one story involving a player not even 21 years old yet doing something positive for someone not as fortunate as him.
4. To that end, there are always a number of stories on draft day about players who persevered through life’s crappy hands to get to that exalted point in their lives. In this year’s draft, though, nobody has had to deal with as much personal adversity as Kansas’ Thomas Robinson, which is one reason so many people in this business have rooted so hard for his success. If you don’t know the details, the LA Times revisits the tragic 25-day stretch in Robinson’s sophomore year when he lost his grandparents and his mother, leaving his 9-year old sister, Jayla, frightened and for all intents completely alone back in DC, some 1,100 miles away. Robinson’s driving force in life is to take care of that little girl, and you can count us among the many who will feel a real happiness when he becomes an instant millionaire tonight.
5. The stars of tonight are today’s high school unknowns (at least to most of us). CBSSports.com’s Jeff Borzello looks to the future and rank-orders the top 14 players in the next three years of high school basketball (2013-15) as of right now. We really don’t know enough about any of these players to make any intelligent observations, but it’s certainly interesting that the player whom Sports Illustrated just put on its cover as the best prep player since LeBron James — Jabari Parker — is #2 on this list. Borzello has 2014’s Andrew Wiggins, a small forward and native Canadian who plays at Huntington (WV) Prep, as his top overall player in high school as of right now. See how it works? The biggest and best thing ever… until the next biggest and best thing ever… followed by the next biggest and best thing ever…

At this Thursday’s NBA Draft, expect to hear six former Kentucky players’ names called. But what are the chances that all six end up having strong pro careers? Four of the UK players are locks to go in the first round while two others are fringe picks, so there are high expectations for this group of newcomers. Has any past college team ever produced four or even five solid pros in the same draft? It turns out that 12 different college teams have seen at least four of their players get selected in a draft since 1989, when the draft shrunk from seven rounds to two. Unfortunately, none of these teams produced more than three successful pros, though the most recent examples include small sample sizes and show some promise. The bottom line is that history is working against the six former Wildcats, and it would be unprecedented for even five of them to pan out. Kentucky basketball has had a way of setting records recently, though, and it wouldn’t come as a surprise if most or all of Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Terrence Jones, Marquis Teague, Doron Lamb, and Darius Miller eventually become strong NBA players.

Can at least five Kentucky players from the upcoming 2012 NBA Draft end up having strong careers? (AP Photo)

Since the draft shrunk to only two rounds back in 1989, no college team has ever had six players drafted in the same year. It goes to show just how talented the 2011-12 Wildcats were, starting at the top with the expected #1 pick Anthony Davis.  The 2006 Connecticut, 2007 Florida, 2008 Kansas, and 2010 Kentucky teams are the only others to produce as many as five NBA draft picks, so the trend has been pointing toward this day.

Today we’ll break down the teams that have come closest to producing four quality pros, including the most recent teams which still have a chance to do so. In order to qualify as a successful pro, our criteria requires players to have enjoyed extended, productive NBA careers. Career scoring averages of around 10 points per game is a general floor. Statistics don’t always tell the tale, so minutes played and games started are also considered to generally mean that a player was useful to his team. A one-stop statistic is Win Shares, which calculates the value a player adds over accumulated time and can be easily accessed through Basketball Reference’s database. Players who aren’t ranked in the top 20 Win Shares of their draft class generally don’t qualify as contributors. We’ll note if exceptions apply for certain players.

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As part of our NBA Draft series, we have been breaking down in full scouting reports all the top prospects who could hear their names called in the first round on Thursday. Included in our profiles are the 35 top prospects as consensus-ranked back in mid-May. But now we’re a day away from the draft, and there’s been plenty of movement around the bottom end of those consensus rankings. Teams have gotten to see the prospects go through measurements, tests, and interviews at the Chicago Combine as well as individual and group workouts in private practice settings. As always, there are some guys moving up at the last minute who weren’t in the mix six weeks ago but could find their way into the first round. Who will become this year’s Norris Cole, the guard from Cleveland State who shot up draft boards late in the process last year and got selected #28 overall? We’ll detail these rising prospects who didn’t make our original cut and we didn’t get a chance to break down in full.

Athletic guard Jared Cunningham is gaining some first round buzz (Pac-12 photo)

Some of the players we detailed back in May who were fringe first-rounders at the time are now falling as likely second-rounders. Scott Machado, Kevin Jones, and Darius Miller, especially, are all projected outside of the top 35 by Draft Express and NBADraft.net at this time. That doesn’t mean these guys won’t get selected in the first round, but the buzz simply isn’t as strong leading up to draft night as some other prospects that we overlooked. Three names – excluding foreign players – who are now rising above these players in terms of consensus rankings heading into draft night are Jared Cunningham, Kim English, and Miles Plumlee. We’ll detail each prospect with a quick and dirty breakdown, including what has caused each player to rise in the past few weeks.

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1. Providence appears to be turning things around at least on the recruiting trail, but their on-court product took a significant hit yesterday when it was announced that incoming McDonald’s All-American Kris Dunn will be undergoing surgery on his right shoulder for a torn labrum in the next two weeks and will miss the next four to six months. Although as much as a half-year is a relatively insignificant amount of time in the life of a basketball player, especially at Dunn’s age, it will likely derail the start of Providence’s season as they look to turn things around under Ed Cooley without one of its stars. We wish Dunn the best in his recovery and hope to see him playing in a Friar jersey soon.
2. We have to give credit to Tom Izzo who is taking the idea of “playing anybody anywhere” to a new extreme as Michigan State is scheduled to open the season against Connecticut at an Air Force base in Germany (pending approval by the Department of Defense) just a year after the Spartans played North Carolina on an aircraft carrier. Fortunately for Izzo his opponent this year will be markedly weaker than the Tar Heel team MSU faced in the Carrier Classic a year ago and they won’t have to do it on the water. While we would welcome more page views from Germany, we do not believe that this type of game is going to generate any more interest in college basketball overseas, as many of the top teams already make international offseason trips and play against high-level teams including occasional match-ups against national teams.
3. As he does before every NBA Draft, Seth Davis queried a group of NBA scouts, coaches, and executives and got what amounts to a consensus view on the top players in tomorrow’s NBA Draft. A few of the more interesting comments came about players such as Andre Drummond (“scares me to death”), Draymond Green (“his shot’s not broken”), Darius Johnson-Odom (“a killer”), Austin Rivers (“spoiled and selfish”), Marquis Teague (“not going to be playing against Mississippi State and Auburn up here”), and Renardo Sidney (“no chance”). As always, there’s a bunch of great insights from the quotes in the piece, so make sure to check out the entire thing sometime before Thursday night.
4. We have already seen plenty of 2012 NBA mock drafts, but the latest ESPN Insider feature is the first one we have seen this year where current NBA players select the draftees who would be their eventual teammates (requires membership, sorry). Like most mock drafts there is a certain degree of groupthink here, but this one varies more from the consensus than most. You might say that players have a capacity to notice special skills that draftniks are unable to grasp; or, that players usually make for horrible general managers (we are going with the latter). If you have ESPN Insider access, it is worth a click just for J.J. Redick‘s analysis of Bradley Beal whom he selected 19th (!). Who knew that behind all that poetry there was a sense of humor?
5. Duke or Ohio State is set to get some excellent news today when Mississippi State forward Rodney Hood announces his decision as to where he will transfer. The 6’8″ all-SEC freshman averaged 10/5/2 APG last year but decided to leave Starkville upon Rick Stansbury’s firing. If you read the tea leaves in his quotes about each school, it would seem that Duke is where he’ll end up. Regardless of where he heads, though, he’ll have to sit out the mandatory transfer year and will not suit up again until the 2013-14 season. There won’t be a many players in next year’s class of 2013 better than Hood as a rising sophomore, so whichever school gets him will be well ahead of the recruiting game a year from now.

1. It’s NBA Draft week around the basketball world, the last blast of hoops hysteria of the year before we all wander off as wayward and lost souls into the hot summer months. We have a number of draft-related posts scheduled this week to supplement our ongoing series of draft profiles, but we started things off yesterday with a quick analysis of the unpredictability of the draft through the exercise of re-picking a few select drafts from the last decade. The moral to the story here is basically that it’s very difficult to project the careers of “can’t miss” prospects 10 years out, much less the marginal ones. A few of the notable names that scouts never saw coming were Stephen Jackson, Isaiah Thomas, DeAndre Jordan and Monta Ellis — CNNSI‘s Sam Amick takes a look at five collegians now projected as second rounders who he believes could exceed expectations in the long run. Stay tuned for a lot more NBA Draft coverage here on RTC this week.
2. While on the subject of shaking hands with David Stern Thursday night, the presumptive #1 overall pick, Anthony Davis, is already making good use of his professional status. CNBC‘s Darren Rovell reported on Monday that The Unibrow has already trademarked the phrases “Fear the Brow” and “Raise the Brow,” ensuring that you’ll see brow-related t-shirts and other New Orleans Hornets attire on Bourbon Street in very short order. Davis said, “Me and my family decided to trademark it because it’s very unique,” and well, we can’t really argue with that.
3. While on the subject of the Wildcats, Kentucky head coach John Calipari said on Monday during an SEC teleconference that he believes the additions of Missouri and Texas A&M to the league next season will result in the strongest SEC ever. Notwithstanding this classic bit of coachspeak — and several other head men, including Alabama’s Anthony Grant and Auburn’s Tony Barbee, were equally guilty of the hyperbole — SEC basketball has a long way to go before it becomes a top-level conference again. Adding Mizzou, a basketball-centric school coming off a great season, helps; adding Texas A&M could go either way depending on how things turn out with Billy Kennedy at the helm. The problem with the SEC is that the traditional football powers (outside of Florida) have too many years where they’re simply not competitive — we’re looking at you, LSU, Auburn, Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee… Until a couple more programs beyond UK, UF, and Vanderbilt improve to a consistent Top 25 level, the league will remain behind the Big Ten, Big 12, the Big East (for now), and the future ACC in terms of basketball prowess.
4. Not every amateur basketball player in America is prepping for the draft this week, although it may seem like it. At least one former collegian, FIU’s Nick Taylor, has been working out at the Minnesota Vikings mini-camp recently in an effort to earn a cornerback slot on the final 53-man roster. Taylor had a nondescript basketball career, averaging just under two points and two assists per game in three seasons with the Panthers, but the 5’9″, 165-pound waterbug who can run a sub-4.3 forty spent the last two years playing for the Fort Lauderdale Barracudas of the Stars Football League. After an All-Star year and a tryout where he exhibited his blazing speed in front of a gaggle of scouts, the Vikings signed Taylor to a non-guaranteed contract and brought him up north. He’s still a long shot to make the final roster, but Taylor is certainly undressing the concept that basketball players can only successfully transition to professional football as big and powerful tight ends.
5. We’ll finish off with a thud, as another player nobody has ever heard of — former Baylor walk-on Richard Hurd — is facing a federal extortion charge for allegedly threatening Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin, III, with “derogatory information.” We have no idea what dirt Hurd might have had (or thought he had) on the #2 overall pick in the NFL Draft, but unless it involved murder and mayhem… OK, we’ll stop right there. The larger point is that some of these things are completely out of Baylor’s control, but is there another school in the nation that has such strangely weird criminal enterprises attach to its athletes? It’s got to be some kind of karmic influence for making Ken Starr it’s president, right? Let’s go with that.

The 2012 NBA Draft takes place this Thursday, June 28 in Newark, and now that the NBA Finals has come to an early conclusion (just five games), New Jersey becomes the center of the basketball universe. No other professional sports amateur draft can have as much immediate impact as the NBA’s, witnessed by Oklahoma City’s rise to prominence with a core consisting of four first-round picks from the previous five years. While we await Thursday’s selections, the words ‘upside’ and ‘potential’ run rampant, as teams are selecting from a pool filled with unrefined prospects. Lottery picks (top 14 selections) are mainly underclassmen who scouts hope evolve into long term superstars, and that’s why the draft presents so many early busts and late sleepers that evaluators miss out on. The NBA Draft is more art than science, and that is no more evident than when you look back at many of the selections made in previous drafts.

After slipping on draft night, Tony Parker has led the Spurs to multiple championships (AP Photo)

Today we take a look at four recent NBA Drafts to give you a clear idea of how difficult it is to nail the top picks. We wanted to choose mostly older drafts whose players’ careers have longer sample sizes to evaluate, but also included a more recent draft since the implementation of the current ‘one-and-done’ rule that disallows high school players from the pool. Here are our revised top 10 picks from 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2006, with each player’s original selection in parentheses. Who ended up becoming the best players from drafts of the 2000s, and where were they selected?

2001

1. Tony Parker (28, San Antonio)
2. Pau Gasol (3, Memphis)
3. Joe Johnson (10, Boston)
4. Zach Randolph (19, Portland)
5. Gilbert Arenas (31, Golden State)
6. Gerald Wallace (25, Sacramento)
7. Jason Richardson (5, Golden State)
8. Tyson Chandler (2, LA Clippers)
9. Shane Battier (6, Memphis)
10. Richard Jefferson (13, Houston)

A fairly strong draft, 2001 is also scarred by the fact that #1 overall pick Kwame Brown was an enormous bust. Brown, selected first by Michael Jordan out of high school, is a great example of why it’s risky to draft young, unproven bigs. But that was also during the era when high school players were eligible for the draft, which is no longer the case today. Even though the current ‘one-and-done’ rule makes it difficult to assess young prospects, at least we get a full season to watch players compete at the highest level. The 2001 draft was full of quality sleepers late in the draft, highlighted by the three-time All-Star, Arenas, and three-time NBA champion and four-time All-Star, Parker, both falling past pick #27. Parker likely fell because he was such a young, foreign player; yet Gasol was a similar prospect who scouts nailed with the #3 overall selection. The 2001 draft proves how difficult it is to differentiate players of varying positions, ages, and levels of play.

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Jared Sullinger was one of college basketball’s biggest stars the past two seasons, entering Ohio State as the #2 consensus player in his high school class and consequently producing at an elite level for the Buckeyes from day one. The 6’9″ fundamental machine averaged over 17 PPG and 9 RPG in back-to-back seasons, becoming a First Team All-American in both years. He led OSU to a #1 seed and Sweet Sixteen appearance in his freshman year before igniting the Buckeyes even further in 2011-12 — all the way to the Final Four. Yet Sullinger saw his draft stock slowly drop throughout college, from a potential #1 pick to just borderline top 10 status as of early June’s Draft Combine, due to concerns about his NBA upside stemming from limited athleticism. He failed to impress during Combine measurements and testing, finishing dead last of 52 competitors in the agility and sprint drills while showing up with 10.7% body fat.

Sullinger is now swarmed with obstacles in preparation of the NBA draft (Reuters photo/M. Sullivan)

But things got much worse on Monday, after Sullinger was reportedly red flagged by NBA doctors who have serious concerns about a long term back injury. Team doctors worry that “back issues could shorten his NBA career” and some medical staffs “advised their teams not to draft him in the first round,” according to ESPN’s Chad Ford. This news will make it even more challenging for Sullinger’s professional prospects — somehow, this dominant college big man with consistent professional intrigue may not even get selected as a first round NBA pick. Could Sullinger wind up becoming a late steal (think: DeJuan Blair), or should concerns about his physical condition validate passing on him in this deep draft?

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No draft prospect’s stock is perhaps as volatile as former Iowa State point-forward Royce White, who’s been rumored to fall anywhere from the late lottery to the early second round. White led a solid Cyclones team in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and field goal percentage last season as a dominant college forward with unquestionable ability as an impact pro player. But NBA evaluators are rightfully concerned about his many off the court issues — getting kicked off his first team (Minnesota), having trouble staying in shape, and, most importantly, his well-known anxiety disorder. Scouts fear that his personality traits could hinder his development and make it difficult for him to adapt to fast-moving changes at the next level. But this week at the NBA Draft Combine, White had a chance to speak face-to-face with league executives and draft scouts through the interrogation process, and he was phenomenal in the interview room. White was one of the best overall public speakers of the group, but more importantly he was refreshingly honest and insightful with answers to specific questions about his anxiety and his game. If NBA teams pass on White solely because of attitude concerns, that’s a mistake based on how well he carried himself in the interview room.

Royce White was just as impressive in front of a microphone at the Combine as he was on the court last season (Iowa State Daily photo)

Overall, White was hands down the best interview in Chicago. Most prospects simply try not to hurt themselves during the interview process and choose to answer with standard player clichés: “I’ll do anything the team wants me to […] I can play any position […] My shot is better than I showed last season.” But White gave honest answers to every question, coming off as a confident young man that understands himself and his game. “Very mediocre; average,” said White about his jump shot. “Hopefully I can have the ball in my hands, I kind of proved that I’m good doing it. But if I don’t, that’s fine as well,” he said when asked about having to play off the ball in the league.

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The 2012 NBA Draft is scheduled for Thursday, June 28, in New York City. As we have done for the last several years, RTC’s team of writers (including Andrew Murawa, Kevin Doyle, Evan Jacoby, Matt Patton, and Danny Spewak) will provide comprehensive breakdowns of each of the 35 collegians most likely to hear his name called by David Stern in the first round on draft night. We’ll work backwards, starting with players who are projected near the end of the first round before getting into the lottery as June progresses. As an added bonus, we’ll also bring you a scouting take from NBADraft.net’s Aran Smith at the bottom of each player evaluation.

Note: Click here for all published 2012 NBA Draft profiles.

Player Name: Terrence Ross

School: Washington

Height/Weight: 6’7”, 200 lbs.

NBA Position: Shooting Guard

Projected Draft Range: Mid-First Round

Terrence Ross Can Be Spectacular(Getty Images)

Overview: At times in Terrence Ross’ sophomore season in Seattle, he was not only the best player on the floor, but clearly the best player in the Pac-12 and on the short list of best shooting guards in the country. Unfortunately for the Huskies, while Ross was fairly consistent the whole season long (he scored in double figures in 32 of his team’s 35 games), there were times when Ross was all too willing to just coast along, disappearing in losses that likely doomed the Huskies to the NIT. For every game like his 26-point second half against Washington State, there was a head scratcher like his six-point performance on just four field goal attempts in a home loss to South Dakota State. Still, he clearly made significant strides in his second season with the Huskies. After struggling to get minutes at a crowded wing spot as a freshman, Ross was second on the team in minutes as a sophomore and his sparkling offensive efficiency numbers dipped only slightly in his increased role. His offensive game is built around a beautiful jump shot, but he’s got the defensive mettle to match his silky smooth offensive game. With good size at the wing, a good frame and the athleticism to guard the two or the three at the next level, Ross looks for all the world to be a guy with a long future in the NBA ahead of him.

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The 2012 NBA Draft is scheduled for Thursday, June 28, in New York City. As we have done for the last several years, RTC’s team of writers (including Andrew Murawa, Kevin Doyle, Evan Jacoby, Matt Patton, and Danny Spewak) will provide comprehensive breakdowns of each of the 35 collegians most likely to hear his name called by David Stern in the first round on draft night. We’ll work backwards, starting with players who are projected near the end of the first round before getting into the lottery as June progresses. As an added bonus, we’ll also bring you a scouting take from NBADraft.net’s Aran Smith at the bottom of each player evaluation.

Note: Click here for all published 2012 NBA Draft profiles.

Player Name: Doron Lamb

School: Kentucky

Height/Weight: 6’4” / 210 lbs.

NBA Position: Guard

Projected Draft Range: Late First Round

Lamb Routinely Hit Big Threes Throughout His UK Career

Overview: Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Terrence Jones, Marquis Teague, and Darius Miller — it is easy to see why Lamb may be slightly overlooked entering the NBA Draft. Not overlooked by the experts and general managers, mind you, but a tad overlooked by the fans. Just how much individual attention can be given to a roster where at least five players project as first round selections? Doron Lamb proved to be Kentucky’s most reliable outside threat throughout last season averaging nearly 14 points and shooting a scorching 46.6% from beyond the arc. Despite having a good handle and being a smart decision-maker with the basketball, Lamb is a natural two guard at the next level, and would complement any established point guard very nicely. Surrounded by a roster full of future NBA players, Lamb was forced to simply become another piece in the offense rather than the focal point; at about 340 other schools in America, Lamb would have taken on the role of “go-to scorer.” As such, Lamb will have a more natural transition to the next level as he already is accustomed to playing within himself and the flow of the offense.

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