Handicapping Next Season’s Best Big Ten/ACC Challenge Matchups

Posted by EJacoby on May 15th, 2012

Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter.

With the announcement of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge schedule for next season, fans now have some important dates to circle on their calendars. The 14th annual competition between power conference heavyweights will take place on November 27 and 28 with all games televised on ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU. Eight of the teams in competition are currently slotted in the RTC preseason Top 25, and there are several enticing matchups between big-time teams. Given that it’s mid-May, it’s far too early to break down the individual strategic matchups, but we’ll give you the best games to look forward to, and why. The Big Ten has won three consecutive challenges after the ACC was victorious in the first 10. Here’s what the 2012 ACC/Big Ten Challenge presents us.

Last Season, Aaron Craft and Ohio State Punked Duke in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge (Getty Images/J. Robbins)

Prestige and Intrigue, North Carolina at Indiana (Nov. 27) – Two of the top five or six programs in college basketball history square off in the headline event of this challenge, and it’s going to be one of the biggest games of the non-conference season. North Carolina loses its four top players from last season, but don’t count out the Tar Heels next year. James Michael McAdoo returns along with a bevy of talented perimeter players in Reggie Bullock, Dexter Strickland, Marcus Paige, and Leslie McDonald. However, UNC has the task of playing in Bloomington against a Hoosiers squad that might be the top team in the country next season. With a lineup full of talented scorers and the experience of last season’s spotlight, Indiana will be a title contender and a strong favorite in this game. The battle between Cody Zeller and McAdoo inside is a matchup of perhaps the two most talented low post prospects in the country.

The Best of the Bunch, NC State at Michigan (Nov. 27) – While UNC at IU presents the greatest national intrigue, a game on the same night presents a better overall matchup. When NC State hits the floor at Michigan, we’ll be seeing two likely Top 10 teams meet with experienced talent. Lorenzo Brown against Trey Burke pits two of the nation’s best point guards going at it, with two different styles at the position. Tim Hardaway, Jr., and C.J. Leslie are each talented juniors for their respective teams that flirted with the NBA but are back to lead their contenders. Throw in strong recruiting classes for each squad and we’ve got a doozy. Lucky for the Big Ten, they once again have the home court advantage in this one.

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Morning Five: 05.15.12 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on May 15th, 2012

  1. Next year’s ACC/Big Ten Challenge will be highlighted by three big matchups: North Carolina at Indiana, North Carolina State at Michigan, and Ohio State at Duke. There will also be three other games featuring solid teams: Minnesota at Florida State, Virginia at Wisconsin, and Michigan State at Miami. Given how down the ACC should be next year it is a pretty solid set of top-level games. The other games? They will be borderline unwatchable. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on your opinion of tacky t-shirts), Tyler Zeller will not be playing, which means we will be spared countless shots of the Zeller family wearing those atrocious shirts with half of one logo on one side and half of another logo on the other side. Now they can just show their support for Cody Zeller instead of tormenting us with commentators talking about their split loyalties. Actually the commentators will probably still do that.
  2. With all the talk of power moves and money being the driving force behind conference realignment it is somewhat amusing that the biggest winner of the chaos (at least for basketball) may end up being the Atlantic 10. Yesterday, reports surfaced that Virginia Commonwealth intended to move to the Atlantic 10 joining Butler as new members of the conference that lost Temple and Charlotte. This apparently was news to the CAA as the commissioner of the conference said that VCU has not made the CAA aware of its intention to do leave for the Atlantic 10. If the move does go through it will be interesting to see how the Atlantic 10 adapts to the loss of two major media markets while gaining two of the premier basketball programs in the country (mid-major or otherwise). Meanwhile, Old Dominion announced that it would explore a potential conference membership change although it did not indicate that it had an open offers to change conferences. Theoretically, VCU moving to the Atlantic 10 would close the door to a spot for Old Dominion, but with all the movement we have been seeing surely there will be an opening somewhere in the not too distant future.
  3. We recently linked to a piece by Andy Glockner looking at the coaching carousel from a big picture view. Now we have his CBS counterparts–Jeff Goodman and Gary Parrish–analyzing each move on a team-by-team basis. One thing that we found amusing was that two writers (particularly Parrish) who have had no qualms ripping others including their colleagues (Poll Attacks, anyone?) were effusive in their praise of almost all of the new hires. The two exceptions: Trent Johnson to TCU, which was described as “a strange hire”, and possibly Ray Harper to Western Kentucky. Other than that it is basically all “good”, “great”, or some variation on that.
  4. Like many people making a major decision, Florida State president Eric Barton uses a pro/con list to guide his decision-making. Unlike most people Barton isn’t trying to decide on something like what kind of car to buy. Instead, Barton’s pro/con list is about whether the school should stay in the ACC or move to another conference like the Big 12. As you can see the con list is literally quite a bit longer than the pro list, but the school may have 2.9 million more reasons per year to add to the pro list. If the school does make the move, which we still have a hard time seeing, it would create a fairly significant change in the ACC and likely start another wave of conference realignment moves.
  5. After a brief hiatus since his last post (nearly two weeks) Luke Winn is back taking a look at three-point defense. Building on the work of Ken Pomeroy that we linked to in February, Winn examines the efficacy of teams that limit the number of three-point attempts and those that essentially invite their opponents to take shots from beyond the arc. For those of you who tend to get overwhelmed by advanced metrics it is a fairly intuitive piece that analyzes teams looking at the percentage of shots their opponents take that are short two-point attempts, long two-point attempts, and three-point attempts. While many successful teams take vastly different approaches to come to a successful result on defense, the degree to which they do so can be staggering. Having said that although we usually agree with Winn’s work we do have some qualms with his assertion that teams are essentially playing the lottery by allowing opponents to take three-point attempts increasing the likelihood of an upset. The anecdotal evidence can be spun to be compelling, but there are enough stories of good teams getting hot from three against better teams and still not winning (like Wisconsin against Syracuse this year) that we are not quite willing to accept the theory even if we agree with it on a theoretical level.
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Big Ten Weekly Five: 05.09.12 Edition

Posted by jnowak on May 9th, 2012

  1. Plenty of Big Ten programs have undergone change in the last few months, and that includes Tubby Smith’s program at Minnesota. The most important news is that Trevor Mbakwe will return for another season, giving the Gophers a shot at finishing near the top of the conference standings next season. They’ll return some good young talent, and with a new athletic director at the helm, this group could finally be ready for a break-through. Amelia Rayno helps to catch us up.
  2. Indiana is such a hot spot now that it’s become a game of musical chairs to find open scholarships. Matt Roth seems to be the odd man out at the moment, though he still remains hopeful that something will open up for his fifth season with the Hoosiers. As Terry Hutchens points out, Roth is eligible for another season as a medical redshirt, but a scholarship would have to become available on a roster that is already over-committed by one player. His other option is to walk on and pay out-of-state tuition.
  3. It looks like Michigan State‘s modus operandi of scheduling some of the top non-conference opponents in the country will continue yet again for Tom Izzo’s group. It was announced recently that the Spartans will host Texas at Breslin Center this upcoming season.  The Spartans, who have played Rick Barnes’ team semi-regularly over the last decade or so, already also have Kansas on the schedule as part of the Champions Classic in Atlanta on November 13.
  4. There’s no area more important to Illinois recruiting than Chicago, so there may not be an assistant coach more valuable to John Groce’s staff than Isaac Chew. Per this Chicago Tribune story, Chew has become Groce’s go-to man in the Windy City. The Chicago native has quickly risen through the ranks at Murray State and Missouri, and now has the opportunity to make his mark — and help Groce do so, as well — in Champaign.
  5. Wisconsin and coach Bo Ryan received some unwanted attention this spring with the news surrounding Jarrod Uthoff and his desire to transfer elsewhere. The issue was finally resolved, but not until after the program’s image took a significant public relations hit. The Journal Sentinel‘s Jeff Potrykus recognizes that fact, but still believes Ryan and the program can recover quickly from the incident.
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Big Ten Weekly Five: 04.25.12 Edition

Posted by jnowak on April 25th, 2012

  1. Wisconsin has been in the news quite a bit over the last week or two, and it’s not good offseason publicity for coach Bo Ryan’s program. Ryan and Jarrod Uthoff became embroiled in a very public and heated controversy about Uthoff’s options after a transfer from Wisconsin. After Ryan tried to place a number of restrictions on Uthoff’s transfer, he made a few important gaffes over the airwaves and via social media, and eventually the coach lifted all restrictions except for schools in the Big Ten. Think Wisconsin fans are ready for games to start already?
  2. Tom Izzo is another coach who has seen some ugly offseason incidents over the last few years, and there’s already been a hiccup this year in East Lansing. Derrick Nix, who became a big contributor in the post this year and figured to be a prominent leader for the Spartans next season, pleaded guilty to impaired driving and had a marijuana possession charge dropped in East Lansing. Nix and his coach addressed the media after the incident and Izzo — after suspending Nix indefinitely — said the center would be reinstated to the team under some specific to-be-determined guidelines. Stay tuned.
  3. There will be no surprises this yearJared Sullinger will not return to Ohio State for his junior year. What does that mean for the Buckeyes? We’re not entirely sure, but we know what it will mean for Amir Williams, who is likely to eat up a lot of Sullinger’s minutes in the post. The former McDonald’s All-American averaged just 1.7 PPG and 2.1 RPG  in 6.6 MPG as a freshman, but says he’s ready to make that leap to becoming a big-time contributor.
  4. Tubby Smith has a new boss at Minnesota and that could mean huge improvements for the Golden Gophers’ program. Smith has long said that the university needs to have Big Ten-type facilities to keep up with the conference’s elite such as Ohio State and Michigan State, two programs that boast some of the very best in the country. Norwood Teague said he recognizes the importance of those facilities and, coming from VCU where basketball was ever-important, his word could go a long way toward helping Smith’s recruiting pitch.
  5. Things are moving a mile a minute for new Nebraska head coach Tim Miles, who is doing all he can to catch up and progress in Lincoln at the same time. He’s been spending time with his family in Colorado, getting acquainted with folks in Nebraska, and burning hours upon hours recruiting all over the road. Miles seems excited, and he feels that the Nebraska fan base equally shares his enthusiasm. “The response has been incredible,” he told the World Herald. “People are hungry. This is how you play the game, being out there. Putting the program in the forefront. But the talking part is easy.”
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Morning Five: Tax Day Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on April 17th, 2012

  1. Three sophomores from the Big Ten announced that they were moving on from their current locations. The big move is comes from Ann Arbor where Evan Smotrycz announced that he was transferring from Michigan to Maryland. During his sophomore season, Smotrycz averaged 7.7 points and 4.9 rebounds per game including making 43.5% of his three-pointers. Having a big man who can grab a few rebounds and step out to hit outside shots should be a big addition for Mark Turgeon’s squad that lacked size last season. The other moves should have a much smaller impact as Ohio State announced that two sophomore would be transferring: J.D. Weatherspoon and Jordan Sibert. Weatherspoon only averaged 3 points and 1.4 rebounds per game while Siebert averaged 2.5 points and 1.4 rebounds per game last year so their numbers should not be missed too much. No information has been released about where either player is planning on going so where they will end up is anyone’s guess.
  2. Even with those transfers the Big Ten got a little tougher next season as Trevor Mbakwe was granted a sixth year of eligibility and will be returning to Minnesota. Mbakwe, who went down with a knee injury last season, was expected to consider entering the NBA Draft, but decided to return to handle “some unfinished business” (or his questionable NBA Draft stock). In either case, Mbakwe’s return should make the Gophers one of the better teams in the conference even if they are still probably just below the absolute upper-tier of the conference. At the very least, his return does mean that there should be some pressure on Tubby Smith to guide the Gophers back into the NCAA Tournament.
  3. The face of the SEC could change drastically over a 24-hour period. Well sort of. Yesterday, Alabama junior/transfer Tony Mitchell announced that he would be entering the NBA Draft. Mitchell is certainly athletic enough to get the attention of NBA scouts, but there are enough questions about his maturity and his all-around play that he is probably looking at a second round spot. As for that other team in the SEC–Kentucky–they will have a press conference tomorrow at 2 PM ET where five of their underclassman (Anthony DavisMichael Kidd-GilchristTerrence JonesDoron Lamb, and Marquis Teague) will announce their decision as to whether or not they will enter the NBA Draft. The first three players have always seemed like sure things to enter the NBA Draft, but the latter two seemed to be a little less clear. Now that they are announcing at the same time it seems almost certain that all of them will head to the NBA. This will be a huge loss for Kentucky who should feel the effects all the way until their next ridiculous recruiting class comes in.
  4. While the rumors surrounding a potential move that would bring Larry Brown to Southern Methodist persist we know that at least one member of his coaching tree will not be on his potential staff as Buzz Peterson announced that he will be staying on as head coach at UNC-Wilmington. Peterson, who will probably go down in history as Michael Jordan’s roommate at UNC, will remain a head coach for his 15th season during which time he has only been to the NCAA Tournament once (back in 2000 with Appalachian State). With Peterson firmly in place in Wilmington it seems like the new issue will be who Brown will bring along with him if he does indeed head to SMU.
  5. Two of the most successful programs in  college basketball had freshmen announce that they would be transferring and the effect should be negligible. Even though there should be a little more playing time available in the Duke backcourt next season Michael Gbinije has decided to transferring from Duke. Gbinije, who was a top 30 recruit coming in, only averaged 1.8 points and 0.9 rebounds while playing 5.8 minutes per game. Given his pedigree and the type of teams that were recruiting him he should have plenty of suitors. On the other hand Merv Lindsay may have a harder time finding minutes at a school of the caliber of Kansas after deciding to transfer from Kansas. Lindsay, who was much less hyped as a 3-star recruit, managed to land a scholarship at the school, but only averaged 0.9 points and 0.3 rebounds in 2.2 minutes per game this season. While most freshmen transfers from a program as prominent as Kansas who leave without injuries or significant behavioral issues would usually be guaranteed a spot at another major Division I program that may not be the case for Lindsay who had few suitors of the caliber of Kansas prior to matriculating there.
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Pac-12 Morning Five: 04.05.12 Edition

Posted by AMurawa on April 5th, 2012

  1. Lorenzo Romar met with local media on Wednesday and had a ton of news as Washington heads to the offseason. While the early entries of Tony Wroten and Terrence Ross to the NBA are by now old news, it is newsworthy that freshman point guard Andrew Andrews underwent hip surgery and junior center Aziz N’Diaye is scheduled for wrist surgery, although neither issue is serious enough to impact their availability for next season. Romar also noted that although the Huskies have yet to sign any new recruits for next season, he expects to land two or three new players. Mark McLaughlin, a recruit from Tacoma Community College, verbally committed to the program but has yet to sign a letter of intent. And, among other things, Romar said an offseason focus would be on improving perimeter defense and finding an inside scoring presence. That last goal does not have an immediately obvious answer, although guys like Shawn Kemp Jr., Jernard Jarreau and Martin Breunig will all get a chance.
  2. When Trent Lockett announced his decision to transfer from Arizona State, he cited his desire to be closer to his mother who is fighting cancer at her home in Minnesota. So, while schools like Iowa State, Minnesota and Wisconsin all made perfect sense as possible landing grounds, the news that Gonzaga is somehow in the conversation comes as a bit of a shock. Still, Iowa State appears to be the leader for Lockett’s services, but the graduating senior must find a school that offers a graduate program that ASU does not in order for Lockett to be eligible to play next season.
  3. It’s no secret to anyone that’s read this spot this season, but Shabazz Muhammad is more or less a must-get for UCLA. If Muhammad goes to Westwood, it means Ben Howland has landed an elite recruiting class and it means the Bruins may even have a shot to land power forward Tony Parker as well. If Muhammad chooses Kentucky, it reinforces the idea that John Calipari and the Wildcats are the place to be for potential one-and-doners and it likely slams the door on the potential for Parker in blue and gold. Sure, the Bruins will still have a nice little recruiting class with Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams, but with Muhammad in tow, the Bruins are possibly the Pac-12 favorite and a force again on the national stage. My gut feeling? Muhammad will be wearing a blue and gold hat on April 10.
  4. A day after Muhammad’s decision will be announced on ESPNU, Tony Parker will announce his decision, with UCLA also among the favorites. On Wednesday, the Memphis Roar reported that Parker’s father had said that his son had cut his list of potential schools to UCLA, Duke and Memphis, but later in the day he retracted that statement, noting that his son would not be trimming his list until the April 8. Still, for the three schools on the supposed short list, this should be seen as good news, while the others – Kansas, Ohio State and Georgia – should probably start making other plans. And, if Brooks Hansen – the author of the piece – is to be believed, the Bruins are the leader in the clubhouse for Parker’s services.
  5. Arizona would certainly have something to say about the idea that the Bruins would be the Pac-12 favorite with the addition of Muhammad. After all, as of right now, the Wildcats have the best incoming recruiting class in the country. And, with the proliference of all the silly 2012-13 preseason rankings that have come out in recent days, it is interesting to see UA, presently sans a set-in-stone answer at the point guard, showing up near the top of many lists. Andy Katz, for instance, has the Wildcats at #12, but two writers at the Daily Wildcat have differing thoughts on such a lofty ranking. One thinks the love is deserved, even if Josiah Turner never wears an Arizona uniform again, while the other prefers to see the team prove it before giving them such praise.
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Big Ten Morning Five: 04.04.12 Edition

Posted by Deepak Jayanti on April 4th, 2012

  1. The Hoosiers are getting some love for next season from ESPN. Several media outlets have ranked Indiana as one of the top teams in the country based on the talent returning to Bloomington. Now, we all know this is way too early. But for what it is worth, Andy Katz of ESPN ranked Indiana as his top team for the 2012-2013 season. If Cody Zeller comes back next season, Tom Crean’s squad should compete for a Big Ten title and beyond.
  2. The Jared Sullinger watch officially started, which started Sunday, ended today as the Ohio State junior announced that he would be entering the NBA Draft. Last season, after the loss to Kentucky in the Sweet 16, Sullinger did not take much time letting the media know that he would return for his sophomore season. This season, however, he was almost as quick with his decision. It does not seem surprising that Sullinger is leaving Columbus even if his last performance in a Buckeye uniform raised plenty of questions about his ceiling as a pro.
  3. Tom Izzo‘s team has some issues off the court after an excellent season on the court. Derrick Nix was with marijuana and Izzo suspended him immediately after his arrest. Nix will be out indefinitely and Izzo has made it clear that such behavior will not be tolerated. Nix is a crucial part of the rotation for the 2012-2013 season and his suspension could be troubling news for Spartan fans.
  4. Tubby Smith‘s contract is still in works, but all reports indicate that he will be sticking around Minneapolis for a few more years. He has two years left on his current contract, but the administration is leaning towards giving Smith a multiple year extension by the end of April. The Gophers’ late season charge towards the NIT final has boosted his resume especially after losing his best player, Trevor Mbakwe to an injury for the whole season.
  5. Big Ten teams are not the only ones losing their cast upon graduation or to the NBA Draft. The Big Ten Network will be without one of their analysts next season as Keno Davis has been hired at Central Michigan. Davis coached at Providence before moving on to a job at the Big Ten Network for one season. Davis has midwestern roots because he coached at Drake in the Missouri Valley before heading to the Big East job at Providence. Davis won’t be a huge loss for BTN, but they need to make sure to hold on to Gus Johnson!
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Big Ten Season Wrap-Up: Minnesota

Posted by jnowak on April 3rd, 2012

They didn’t make the tournament that all teams strive for, but Minnesota did make the most of its postseason this year. The Golden Gophers were left out of the NCAA Tournament after missing an opportunity to upset Michigan in overtime in the Big Ten Tournament, but then went on to play five more games in the NIT before losing to Stanford in the tournament’s championship. It proved to be a great learning opportunity for some of the club’s younger players and could turn into a great jump-off for next year’s team. But first, a look back:

Maverick Ahanmisi and the Golden Gophers fell to Stanford in the NIT championship. (Anthony Gruppuso/US Presswire)

  • In a nutshell: There were a few phases to the Gophers’ season, beginning with the 12-1 start to the non-conference schedule. Then there was the sans-Trevor Mbakwe portion of the season, and things were just never the same from that point forward. They started the Big Ten schedule 0-4 and had another six-game losing streak mixed in there before making a run at the NIT title. Nothing stands out more than the loss of Mbakwe, though, and there’s no question that this would have been a very different team had he been healthy all year. If he returns next season, Minnesota can give a lot of teams trouble.
  • Overachievement: By season’s end, freshman guard Andre Hollins was putting together games worthy of All-Big Ten consideration and looking like a future star. Stanford shut him down in the NIT title game (just four points) but he had dropped double-digit scoring outputs in each of the other tournament games, including 44 in the quarterfinal and semifinal games combined. His minutes were only in the teens early in the year but, by season’s end, he was logging 30-40 minutes a night. Read the rest of this entry »
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Big Ten Morning Five: 04.03.12 Edition

Posted by jnowak on April 3rd, 2012

  1. The changes at Illinois keep coming. The Fighting Illini will have a new coach in John Groce roaming the sidelines next season, but won’t have the same big man roaming the paint. Sophomore center Meyers Leonard announced Tuesday he is declaring for the NBA Draft and will leave college early. “This was a very difficult decision because I love the University of Illinois,” Leonard said in a statement. “But I feel the timing is right for me to follow my dream of playing in the NBA and having the opportunity to provide for my mom and family.” It shouldn’t really come as a huge shock. He averaged 13.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG and 1.9 BPG this year.
  2. Minnesota’s season ended on an ugly note, but that should not take away from the optimism some fans were generating the last few weeks. FOXSports.com‘s Tyler Mason writes that Andre Hollins and Rodney Williams gave fans something to cheer about during the NIT run and that should be the case again next year.
  3. Back to Illinois, we can talk about some personnel coming into the program instead of leaving it. John Groce is starting to round out his staff and has tapped former Ohio assistant Jamall Walker, a source confirmed to the Chicago Tribune on Monday. Walker is the first addition to Groce’s staff in Champaign; he played at St. Louis, and has a strong reputation for working with point guards and could be the guy to help Groce tap into Chicago recruiting.
  4. The clock is ticking for college players to make their decision about whether to stay in school or opt for the NBA Draft — they must declare that they are looking into the NBA by April 3 and must declare or withdraw by April 10, according to NCAA rules — but the Indianapolis Star‘s Bob Kravitz says this situation puts too much pressure on the players. Kravitz is talking about players like Christian Watford, who only have a small window of time to make a critical decision and give NBA evaluators just a small sample size. Is that fair?
  5. Things are looking up with the Iowa basketball program, but the program’s history got a little bit of a boost this weekend in New Orleans. Former Iowa player and coaching great Don Nelson was elected into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame on Monday morning. According to the Gazette, Nelson led Iowa in scoring and rebounding all three seasons he was eligible to play and ranks 11th all-time in scoring with 1,522 points. He is also now the NBA’s all-time winningest coach with 1,335 wins.
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Stanford’s NIT Title: So What?

Posted by AMurawa on March 30th, 2012

On Thursday night, Stanford earned the right to be one of the handful of teams in Division I basketball to end its season with a win, storming to a 24-point win over Minnesota in the NIT Final. While plenty of people will write that off (with some reason) as just showing that the Cardinal are the 69th best team in college hoops, what exactly does the win mean for Johnny Dawkins and his budding program?

Stanford, NIT Champion

Stanford Took Home The NIT Title, But What Does It Mean For Next Year? (Frank Franklin II/AP Photo)

Conventional wisdom says that an NIT win bodes well for the future, providing a springboard to success in the following season. Even a cursory glance at the history in the last decade shows that this is not really the case. Of the last 10 winners of the NIT, just four teams made the NCAA Tournament the following year, with only one team, West Virginia’s 2006-07 squad, actually earning a victory in the ensuing NCAA Tourney. In fact, over those 10 years, the NIT winners actually turned in a record the following year that was, on average, 4.3 games worse than the record in the year of the NIT win.

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