RTC will be providing coverage of the NCAA Tournament from start to finish. David Changas (@dchangas) is in Nashville this weekend. 

Three Key Takeaways.

Michael Porter, Jr. never got to display his full capabilities in what likely will be his only college season. (Jim Brown/USA TODAY Sports)

1. Florida State’s first half defense was absolutely stifling. In the first half, Missouri made a total of five shots on its way to a 22-point deficit. Florida State has not been particularly stingy on the defensive end this season, ranking 78^th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. But they forced the Tigers to take bad shot after bad shot, and Missouri was unable to connect on much. The defensive pressure the Seminoles put on Missouri also led to a number of easy baskets. In the second half, Missouri made a run over the first 10 minutes to reduce the deficit all the way to six, but Florida State responded with a 9-0 run to extend its lead back to 15 with just over seven minutes remaining
2. The Seminoles were the deeper team. Florida State got points from 11 different players, and none scored more than 14 points. As Missouri made its second half surge, the Seminoles were able to weather the storm and looked fresher down the stretch. It did not help Missouri that it was without senior forward Jordan Barnett, who was arrested for DWI after the SEC Tournament and was suspended for the game. Regardless, it was clear that Florida State was the fresher team down the stretch and had more energy, which allowed it to put the game away.
3. The MPJ effect. It was clear that Cuonzo Martin was going to go all-in with Michael Porter, Jr. in this game, and while the temptation to play a guy who is going to be a top-five draft pick was too much to overcome, Porter was simply out of gas in the second half and made a number of careless errors because of it. Porter certainly could not have been expected to go as long as he did – he logged 28 minutes for the game – and it is certainly a shame for college basketball fans that such a unique talent will have a college career that consisted of just over a couple of games. Porter’s game figures to translate well to the next level, and even in the midst of this contest, he showed flashes of why he was considered the consensus top recruit in the class of 2017.

Player of the Game. Mfiondu Kabengele, Florida State. The freshman forward led the Seminoles with 14 points and 12 rebounds as he notched only his second double-double of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

Now that the season is nearly a month old, it’s time to take stock of where the league stands. This is the debut of SEC Stock Watch for the 2017-18 season.

Trending Up

• An Improved SEC. There was considerable discussion about SEC basketball being better this season, and so far, it has been. Improved coaching and recruiting has led to better depth across the league, and the number of quality wins in the non-conference season has correspondingly grown. Despite a few setbacks, all 14 SEC teams currently sit in the KenPom top 100, and Texas A&M, Tennessee, Georgia and Mississippi State have all been early surprises.

Tyler Davis has led the way for Texas A&M so far this season (San Antonio Express-News).

• Texas A&M as a contender. Much was also made of the Aggies in the preseason, and despite Wednesday night’s loss to Arizona in the desert, Billy Kennedy‘s club has been even better than expected. Texas A&M’s opening-night blowout of West Virginia in Germany remains the biggest win for the league thus far. If the Aggies can get preseason all-conference forward Robert Williams going soon, look out.
• Missouri without MPJ. Assuming Michael Porter, Jr. does not return to the Tigers this season, his career likely will go down as one of the shortest in the history of college basketball. The devastating loss of a player who many pundits considered the best freshman in the country is an indescribably difficult blow for first-year head coach Cuonzo Martin, but the Tigers have righted the ship on their way to a 7-2 start. There is no reason to think Missouri can’t be pretty good even without the services of Porter.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Coming into the season we were worried about the ongoing FBI investigation leading to some of the top freshmen in the country to miss considerable parts of the season, but yesterday we may have lost the best freshman in the country as Missouri announced that Michael Porter Jr. will likely miss the season after undergoing lower back surgery. It is a huge blow for a Missouri program that has struggled to be nationally relevant for the past twenty seasons outside of a pair of Elite Eight appearances and another that ended with a loss to Norfolk State. Even though we were more measured in our expectations for what Missouri could achieve with Porter (borderline NCAA Tournament team) his absence means that Cuonzo Martin’s first season at Missouri will likely end with a quiet Selection Sunday.
2. Last Thursday, NBA commisioner Adam Silver and NBPA executive director Michele Roberts met with the newly formed Commission on College Basketball to discuss a variety of issues affecting the NBA and college basketball. The most important for the college basketball was the discussion of the one-and-done rule and the potential for changing it significantly. There has been some speculation as to whether or how the NBA will change the rule and there have been some criticisms of the Committee that the NCAA put together, but the reality is that they will have no say in what the NBA does.
3. The debate around eliminating the one-and-done rule has been going on for sometime and the last Thursday’s meeting just reignited the debate on both sides. We tend to agree with Dan Greene, who believes that changing the one-and-done rule will make college basketball worse. While most people are focusing on the players who would be trying to skip college experience, Greene is also worried that some players will enter the NBA Draft rather than face being required to stay in college for two years instead of one year if they do not enter the NBA Draft immediately after high school.
4. On Tuesday, Bol Bol announced that he was committing to Oregon in an article for The Player’s Tribune. Bol, a 7’2″ consensus top-five player in his class best known as the son of former NBA star Manute Bol, cited his relationship with the Oregon staff as the reason for picking them. While the Oregon class will never be confused with that of Duke or Kentucky (Bol’s two other suitors), Dana Altman does have a nice class developing with another five-star recruit in Louis King already committed.
5. With Bol’s commitment there are only a few more top-25 recruits who remain uncommitted. One of the most prominent of those is Anfernee Simons, a consensus top-10 recruit, but you shouldn’t expect an announcement any time soon. According to a report from Jonathan Givony, Simons is considering skipping college and entering the NBA Draft. Simons would be able to do this because he is in a post-graduate year (his fifth year in high school) and will turn 19 in June, which would make him eligible for the Draft. We don’t expect his to become a trend, but if the one-and-done rule gets changed it is something that college coaches might have to worry about more in the future.

It has been a long time since there has been so much excitement surrounding the start of SEC basketball. With so many of the league’s football programs struggling and the promise of widespread improvement across the conference on the hardwood — not to mention the specter of an ongoing FBI investigation hanging over a few schools — everyone is ready to start playing. As we open the season at 13 of the SEC’s 14 schools tonight, let’s look ahead to this evening’s most intriguing match-ups:

• Texas A&M vs. West Virginia – ESPN, 6:00 PM. This is the marquee game of opening night, as the #25 Aggies take on Bob Huggins’ #11 Mountaineers at Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany. Texas A&M gets an early chance to show that last season’s downturn was a momentary blip on its long-term trajectory, but it will have to do so without potential lottery pick Robert Williams, who is serving a two-game suspension for a violation of university policy. Freshman point guard JJ Caldwell is also suspended for the team’s first five games after an offseason arrest charge that was later dropped. That leaves it up to junior forward Tyler Davis to lead the Aggies in what promises to be a very difficult match-up with a Big 12 heavyweight.

Alabama received the good news that Collin Sexton will return next week against Lipscomb (rolltide.com)

• Memphis vs. Alabama, 6:30 PM. The Crimson Tide will also get an early test against a rebuilding Memphis team at the Veterans Classic in Annapolis. Although Alabama got news late Thursday that highly acclaimed freshman Collin Sexton will only sit out tonight’s game and can return on Tuesday against Lipscomb, Memphis is a dangerous team to play at less than full strength. Still, this is a major development for Avery Johnson as it appeared earlier in the week that Sexton, a consensus top-10 player in the class of 2017, may not ever suit up for the Tide.

Read the rest of this entry »

As the regular season tips off a little later today, here are 10 things worth asking about this weekend and beyond.

1. Who takes a step forward for North Carolina? With Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks and Tony Bradley all gone — not to mention Joel Berry injured — North Carolina will be looking to replace a total of 64.4 points per game. The Tar Heels begin the season against a Northern Iowa team that likes to slow the pace and limit possessions. North Carolina cannot afford to be careless with the ball tonight.
   

   All eyes will be on Michael Porter Jr. this season. (Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports)

2. What will Gonzaga be this season? The ‘Zags have won at least a share of the WCC regular season title in each of the past five seasons, yet they received only one of the 10 first place votes in the WCC preseason coaches poll. Three of its four double-figure scorers from last season are now gone — who will step up?
3. How far can Michael Porter Jr. carry Missouri?: Missouri finished last season 3-20 against teams ranked in the KenPom top 100. The Tigers get an immediate chance to reverse that trend against Iowa State tonight with freshman sensation Michael Porter, Jr., who recently became only the fifth true freshman voted on to the preseason AP All-American team. Read the rest of this entry »

With the season tipping off on Friday, there’s no better time to roll out our 2017-18 RTC Preseason All-America Teams. More than anything, these three groups of outstanding players are here to foster and encourage discussion over the next four months. Our crack panel of 10 writers provided their ballots over the last week and this is where we ended up.

First Team All-Americans

• Jalen Brunson, Villanova – There are few things more daunting in college basketball than a talented team with a heady, veteran playmaker at the point guard position. Brunson certainly fits that bill, as he enters the season with great expectations following a sophomore campaign where the point guard earned unanimous all-Big East honors while averaging 14.7 points and 4.1 assists per game. Villanova is the preseason favorite to win the Big East title — and if that prediction comes true, it will be Brunson’s third in three years running the show for Jay Wright’s squad. Factoid: Many players with Brunson’s pedigree would at least test the NBA Draft waters either after their freshman or sophomore seasons, but Brunson is different, stating, “The NBA is not going anywhere. I can wait. I can still get better. I can still get my degree. That’s the approach I had. I talked it over with my parents, and they’re just 100 percent fully supporting me. So that’s where I am.”
• Allonzo Trier, Arizona – Arizona experienced some offcourt drama late in the offseason when longtime assistant Book Richardson was arrested by the FBI on charges of bribery, corruption, conspiracy, and fraud stemming from improper conduct on the recruiting trail. That news figures to overshadow much of Arizona’s early season — which is a real shame, as the Wildcats are projected to be among the nation’s best teams. A major reason for that is the return of Trier for his junior year. The talented wing returned from a 19-game performance enhancing drug suspension during his sophomore season to lead the Wildcats to the Pac-12 regular season and tournament titles. Many were surprised when Trier opted to return to Tucson in lieu of entering the NBA Draft, but he has acknowledged that last season’s suspension definitely factored in his decision to come back to school. Factoid: Trier was the subject of a New York Times Magazine feature when he was in sixth grade that highlighted his precocious basketball ability at a young age with an introduction to the AAU scene.
• Michael Porter Jr., Missouri – A coaching change can often make a massive difference in a program’s fortunes. That was definitely the case with Missouri when the Tigers fired Kim Anderson in March after an underwhelming tenure and replaced him with Cal’s Cuonzo Martin, a coach who has long enjoyed a sterling reputation for his ability to recruit at a high level. Martin hiring paid off almost immediately when he secured the services of Porter, who was listed by 247Sports as the third-best player in the Class of 2017. The 6’10” forward will provide Missouri with scoring on the wing and has the versatility to defend a variety of positions. The Tigers are projected as one of the most improved teams in the country — and with Porter now in the fold, it will be intriguing to see just how far they can advance in the postseason. Factoid: It is a family affair for the Porters in Columbia this year, as Michael Porter, Sr. is an assistant coach, Jontay Porter reclassified to play with his brother, sisters Bri and Cierra Porter play for the women’s team, and aunt Robin Pingeton is the head coach of that women’s team.
• Miles Bridges, Michigan State – Michigan State was the recipient of one of the best offseason surprises when the sure-fire lottery pick Bridges decided to return to East Lansing for his sophomore year. Once the national shock of the decision wore off, it became clear the Spartans would be one of the teams to beat in college basketball this season. Bridges will look to build on a terrific freshman year where he averaged 16.9 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. With a strong supporting cast in tow and uncertainty with many teams in the Big Ten, the star sophomore should lead the Spartans to a prosperous season on both the conference and national landscapes. Factoid: Like most of us, Michigan State coach Tom Izzo assumed Bridges would be a one-and-done player, going so far as to joke about how Bridges will have to carry bags this year as an NBA rookie. In response, Bridges may have hinted at his ultimate decision by questioning, “Coach, why you always trying to get rid of me?”
• Bonzie Colson, Notre Dame – It is not a stretch for anyone to reference Colson as the most unique player in college basketball. After a turn as a significant role player on Notre Dame’s Elite Eight teams in 2015 and 2016, Colson became The Man in South Bend during his junior season. Standing at just 6’6″, Colson was the only ACC player last year to average a double-double — 17.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. Notre Dame currently finds itself in one of the most successful stretches the program has ever had, and with the talented and experienced Colson as its go-to guy, look for the Irish to continue that run this season. Factoid: Throughout Colson’s career, he has stayed true to two beliefs: play hungry and stay humble. The ACC Preseason Player of the Year vows that will not change as he enters his senior season as one of the country’s top players.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday in a gym in western Massachusetts nearly 3,000 miles east of Seattle, Nathan Hale High School (WA) forward Michael Porter, Jr. lit up an Oak Hill Academy team littered with Division I talent to the tune of 37 points, five rebounds and four assists. Back in the Emerald City, Washington head coach Lorenzo Romar is in danger of losing his job. The Huskies are drowning in a sea of defensive lapses and wasted offensive possessions, all the while squandering the services of arguably the best player in college basketball, Markelle Fultz. Over the last 15 years, Romar has banked significant good will as the most successful head coach in program history. But as the Huskies have churned out legitimate NBA talent over the past five seasons without any real NCAA Tournament success to show for it, even his staunchest defenders have begun to come around. And yet, the only person that seems to stand between Romar and a near-certain axing is the 18 year-old Porter.

Michael Porter Jr. is really good, but is he good enough to keep Lorenzo Romar from being fired?

The prep superstar is a lot of things. He is the No. 2 overall recruit in the Class of 2017 and a likely NBA lottery pick in 2018. He is also Romar’s godson and the crown jewel of Washington’s next recruiting class. His father, Michael Porter, Sr., is currently an assistant coach there, and his younger brother, Jontay Porter, is a top 40 recruit in the Class of 2018 who may reclassify to join his sibling in Seattle as soon as next season. Fans and administrators alike are well aware of the significant athletic gifts of the Porter brothers, but they are also well aware that the Porter brothers are only committed to Washington for as long as Romar and their father remain employed by the university. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Conference media days are usually full of mundane questions and people trying to make big stories out of mostly irrelevant issues, but the Big 12 appears to be an exception to that this year as it announced that it has decided to explore expanding. That announcement has led to plenty of speculation as to what schools would be the best fit. With the conference expected to add either two or four schools in a bid to not only become bigger/expand its geographic footprint, but also possibly move towards having its own television network (see below), the most commonly mentioned options appear to be Boise State, Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Connecticut, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, and Tulane with BYU, Cincinnati, and Connecticut being the favorites to most observers.
2. One of those schools that did itself no favors with the timing of release of bad news is South Florida, which is being investigated by the NCAA for academic fraud. Very few details about the case have come out yet, but it already appears to have led assistant coach Oliver Antigua, brother of head coach Orlando Antigua, to resign within hours of the story breaking. Plenty of people online have been making jokes about how the program should be better if they are cheating, but the reality is that they should be better just based on the location of where they are. Tampa is by no means a high school basketball hotbed, but there are plenty of talented players in the area including many talented two-sports players who focus on football. Much like Central Florida, the program really should be better than what it is. We will have to wait and see what they are accused of and how hard the NCAA will come down on it before seeing what kind of obstacles they will have to overcome.
3. If you thought you didn’t get enough ACC basketball (ok, you already get enough Duke and North Carolina), you are in luck as the ACC Network is now expected to launch in 2019 as part of a report that also indicates that the league is extending its grant of rights through the 2035-36 season. The latter is interesting as it means the conference keeps all media revenue generated by the school even if it tries to leave the conference until that period. We aren’t sure how well that would hold up in court, but it would make poaching schools away more difficult if it could be enforced.
4. In probably the most predictable recruiting announcement ever, Michael Porter Jr has committed to play at Washington. For those of you who don’t follow recruiting, Porter, who was mentioned in last week’s Morning 5, seemed like he was guaranteed to play at Washington since he is the godson of Lorenzo Romar and the school has recently hired his father to be an assistant coach. These type of package deals are nothing new (we wrote about them back in 2008 and they were going on well before that), but they continue to leave a sour taste in some people’s mouths. We are not what exactly the NCAA can to prevent them since there are certainly family members of top recruits who would be reasonable coaching hires (like if Doc Rivers had been out of coaching when Austin was being recruited), but it seems like it will continue to be a contentious point going forward.
5. Unfortunately, we have to cover legal issues around college basketball players way too much and this week’s case is Xavier senior guard Myles Davis (10.8 points, 4.1 assists, and 3.6 rebounds per game last year), who had a protective order placed against him after his ex-girlfriend accused him of threatening her, breaking her cellphone, punching holes in a wall, and trying to break her windows. For the next three years, Davis, who denies the allegations, is barred from coming within 500 feet of the woman except on-campus where he has to stay at least ten feet away at all times. The school has not handed down any punishment for Davis yet although we doubt it will be anything substantial unless he has a history of these type of incidents.

1. Larry Brown‘s decision to resign last week as head coach at Southern Methodist University should not come as surprise to those who know his history. According to reports Brown was seeking a five-year extension, but the school was only willing to offer a three-year, $10 million expansion leading Brown to resign just at the start of the start of the very important July reporting period. Fortunately for SMU they already have a coach-in-waiting in Tim Jankovich, who left a job as head coach at Illinois State in 2012 to be a coach-in-waiting at SMU and he is expected to receive a contract that is at least five years in length. Normally when someone Brown’s age (75) resigns we would expect that it would be the last we see of him, but Brown has always been different. If this is the last we see of Brown, his legacy will be a very interesting one as he is undoubtedly one of the best basketball coaches ever, but he was also one who could never stay in one place very long and also managed to be the coach at three schools who were hit with significant NCAA sanction.
2. July might seem like a weird time for Luke Winn to come out with new Power Rankings, but as he notes we are at the point where we can reasonably expect that every significant recruit/player has committed to play somewhere or decided to transfer out of their current program. While this version of the Power Rankings is lighter on GIFs/clips and numbers than in-season versions (totally understandable since there isn’t as much new data to look at as there is in-season), it does serve as a good concise recap of where the top teams stand coming into next season. If you’re looking for those really interesting stats, we would point you to the three-point shooting of Kentucky‘s incoming guards and Purdue‘s efficiency numbers with Caleb Swanigan on- and off-court.
3. If you happened to miss the coverage of Peach Jam, the big winners from the weekend appear to be Michael Porter Jr and Trae Young and not just because their team took home the title. According to most analysts the pair were two of the most dominant players in the entire tournament and probably did as much to boost their stock as anyone at Peach Jam. While DeAndre Ayton doesn’t seem to be in danger of losing his spot as the top recruit in the class, Porter made a strong case to be in the discussion. Of course, that probably doesn’t matter since everybody already has him penciled in going to Washington since his father was hired as an assistant coach there (ok, that’s probably more Sharpie than pencil). Young’s situation is more interesting as he is considering multiple schools with Kentucky reportedly making him one of their top targets.
4. Jeremiah Tilmon didn’t participate in Peach Jam as he is still recovering from a dislocated shoulder, but he still managed to make news with his decision to commit to Illinois. Tilmon, a 6’10” center who is top-30 recruit in the class of 2017, is originally from Illinois even though he plays for a school in Indiana now so we guess this counts as an in-state recruit. In any event, he is the highest-rated recruit to commit to Illinois since John Groce took over in 2012. The big question now for Illinois is whether he will stay committed to the school if they struggle this year and particularly if Groce appears to be in danger of losing his job, which he could be if they have another subpar season.
5. Outside of the obvious differences in coaching philosophies in terms of offensive and defensive sets, substitution patterns are probably the most important part of in-game coaching. Ken Pomeroy’s analysis of which coaches are most/least likely to let a player continue playing during the first half when that player already has two fouls offers an interesting look at that. While we don’t necessarily see a particular patterns (so-called “good” and “bad” coaches fall all over the spectrum) there are some pretty stark differences. The one thing that we would like to see applied to this analysis is the season-to-season variation in a coach’s tendencies, which could reflect a lack of an adequate substitute, and how this is related to percentage of minutes played by starters.