Behind the Numbers: Our Robot Overlords Think We Give UNC Too Much Credit

Posted by KCarpenter on November 17th, 2011

Kellen Carpenter is an ACC microsite staffer and an RTC columnist. Behind the Numbers will publish weekly throughout the season.

Preseason rankings are a funny thing and once real basketball begins, these guesses about the season grow increasingly meaningless. People forget who was ranked where in the preseason by January, if they haven’t already forgotten by December. This, for what it’s worth, is probably a good thing.  Preseason polls can turn out to be pretty embarrassing, highlighting how little journalists and coaches actually know about how the basketball season is going to turn out. Remember Kansas State and Michigan State last season? They weren’t exactly huge factors in the postseason despite being almost unanimously ranked in the top five at the beginning.

Ron Morris Was Certainly On To Something

Gary Parrish’s “Poll Attacks” column is devoted to critiquing what he feels aren’t well-considered ballots. It’s an interesting idea and is usually very fascinating, but since Parrish can’t see the future, the columns have a tendency to not age all that well. What seems like understandable ridicule in November can seem less well-founded when the championship game is being played in April.  Here is a particularly infamous  passage from last year’s pre-season column:

Same dude voted Connecticut 18th.

This would’ve made sense three years ago, but it makes no sense now given that the Huskies have a coach who can’t seem to stay healthy, and a roster that looks nothing like your typical UConn roster. That’s why Big East coaches picked UConn 10th in the league, and why somebody needs to shoot me Ron Morris’ email address. With little effort, I can get him added to the official Big East email list, at which point he’ll start receiving announcements, and then this sort of stuff can probably be avoided. I don’t mean to be pushy.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

ACC Morning Five: 11.17.11 Edition

Posted by mpatton on November 17th, 2011

The gentlemen over at Blogger So Dear (SBNation‘s Wake Forest blog) took note of the conference’s unblemished record yesterday morning: “The ACC is 22-0 this year so far…it must be asked…can we run the table?” Another four wins later and the last perfect conference (sorry Pittsburgh, your application is for 2014-15) is still standing.

Blogger So Dear is Definitely Worth the Follow for Wake Forest Sports

  1. Sports Illustrated: I’m not sure how I missed this for yesterday’s Morning Five, but Seth Davis’ post on Mike Krzyzewski and Bob Knight’s relationship is a must-read. In some ways the men are as different as you could imagine, but take a look at some of Knight’s old Indiana games and you’ll see (and lipread) the same fire that’s characterized Coach K’s sideline persona. The article speaks for itself, and I can’t begin to do it justice so I’ll just leave the rest to Seth Davis.
  2. TarHeelBlue.com: This is a cool series North Carolina‘s athletic department is doing where once a month it’s hosting a chat with a member of the basketball team. Whoever is up next is going to have pretty big shoes to fill (sorry for that), as Kendall Marshall led off the series with a chat covering everything from his love for kicks to his favorite place to eat on Franklin Street. Marshall has been getting well-deserved love for his social-networking on Twitter (he’s overtaken Missouri’s Kim English as the best follow in college basketball), so if you ever get tired of “#riseandgrind #nodaysoff goin to the gym” athlete tweets, check him out. I’d be very excited to hear Harrison Barnes answer fan questions, but the true must-read chat might come if Blue Steel (the walk-ons) are ever given a chance.
  3. New York Daily News: Maryland will face off against Kentucky in the first college hoops battle at the new Barclays Center arena in Brooklyn next season. The new building will host the New Jersey Nets (who will probably be getting a new name), but John Calipari “approached the Nets months ago and asked to have his team play the first college game there.” This is interesting to me on a couple of levels: (1) Calipari coached the Nets a while ago and it would be kind to call his tenure anything but a failure; and (2) Nets’ co-owner Jay-Z is a big Kentucky fan. The game is scheduled for November 9, 2012.
  4. PressBoxOnline.com: Maryland legend Ernie Graham is finally having his jersey retired 32 years after he left Maryland. Graham’s story is a sad one filled with drugs, but he’s using his story (much like former Boston College stand-out Chris Herren) to help keep others from falling into the same trap. Graham’s crowning achievement was scoring 44 against NC State in 1978. The record is even more amazing taking into account the lack of a three-point line and that he only played 25 minutes per game. Because of his troubled past the athletic department has been largely distant, but a combination of getting clean and Maryland hiring new athletic director Kevin Anderson will finally bring closure and recognition to a great college career.
  5. Associated Press: NC State relapsed into its coasting tendencies from last year in a tight 60-58 win over Princeton last night. Princeton notoriously plays a brand of basketball based on slowing the game down, not committing turnovers, and moving the ball (trust me, NC State fans know). This kept the Wolfpack out of transition, which has been their bread and butter in their opening two games. However, the biggest news of the game was Mark Gottfried’s cold-blooded assassin, Scott Wood, suffering a bad ankle injury early. The good news is that X-rays came back negative. The bad news is that Wood could be out “for a while,” according to Gottfried.

Duke Blue Planet produced an awesome video in honor of Coach K’s record-setting victory Tuesday night (their tribute site also has some pretty outrageous stats, but this one courtesy of @TheDevilWolf is unbelievable: “Coach K has coached 169 players [148 at Duke]. Of those, 84 have played in a Final Four, and of those, 41 won national championships”).

Share this story

Morning Five: 11.17.11 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on November 17th, 2011

SPONSORED: Rush the Court is pleased to bring you a free to enter Top 25 teams only Fantasy College Basketball Contest with $250 in prizes courtesy of DailyJoust.com! Draft your team today for Saturday night’s contest. Daily Joust has Accurate Real-Time Scoring Stats for all CBB contests. Click Here To Enter.

  1. After Tuesday night’s embarrassing loss to Middle Tennessee State, UCLA fans were questioning what Ben Howland could do to resurrect the floundering program. Howland appears to have answered them by reinstating Reeves Nelson after suspending the junior for what has been described as “behavior issues”. While the decision certainly makes the Bruins a more talented team that does not appear to be UCLA’s primary problem right now. They certainly were not any less talented than Loyola Marymount or Middle Tennessee State even without Nelson, but still lost to both of those teams. Now, Howland will be using a point guard who was involved in a computer theft earlier this year, an incredibly overweight big man, and a player whom he appears to have brought back in a desperate attempt to save this season. As Jeff Goodman notes that this act screams of Howland putting winning above everything else. It will be interesting to see how this affect UCLA’s recruiting going forward. They already have signed Kyle Anderson, who appears to be sticking with UCLA although we would argue that he doesn’t have much choice after signing with them, but we imagine this turmoil might affect Shabazz Muhammad, who apparently was watching both UCLA and Kentucky on Tuesday night.
  2. The NCAA has a history of making interesting decisions and yesterday’s announcement that Joe Castiglione, the athletic director at Oklahoma, had been appointed to the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee appears to be another one of them. Castiglione replaces former Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe, a man whose career fell so precipitously in the past few months that he got his own fake Twitter account that has over 15,000 followers. Castiglione appears to have a solid resume, but the timing is a bit odd since his school was put on probation just a week ago and although it appears that Castiglione probably could not have stopped it the selection is an interesting one especially in light of the fact that Connecticut‘s Jeff Hathaway is also on the same committee and serves as chairman despite his school having to take a scholarship hit and potentially being ineligible to play in next year’s NCAA Tournament due to a low APR score.
  3. The Kentucky fans who showed up en masse at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night for the team’s resounding win over Kansas will get another chance to return New York next year, but will have to head over to Brooklyn instead of Manhattan as the Wildcats are scheduled to play Maryland in next year’s Barclay Center Classic. We don’t know who will be playing at Kentucky next season, but we expect that they will be very talented and there will be plenty of Wildcat fans at the game. The night’s undercard is Morehead State against Long Island, which might actually bring some fans to the game given the proximity of the school.
  4. With many of the top recruits in the country having already committed or in the process of committing to a school Basketball Prospectus took a look at “basketball recruiting royalty,” which they use to refer to Duke, North Carolina, and Kentucky. While the article does take quite a few liberties in assuming why or even if those schools target certain recruits based on where they are ranked and consequently what type of player they will be, it is an interesting read. It also provides some interesting statistics on how often players ranked in each recruiting ranking range stay at a school they committed to before leaving either due to graduation, transfer, or to the NBA. We would love to see someone try a more formal approach to analyze this and see if there is a “sweet spot” for schools to recruit in although it would probably change whenever the NBA makes its decision on how long a player has to stay in college before turning pro.
  5. The ratings for last Friday’s Carrier Classic are in and they were excellent as we all expected. The telecast received a 2.7 rating (3.859 million viewers), which is the highest rating that ESPN has ever had for a November college basketball game (technically tied with a 1992 Preseason NIT game). The press release claims that this is ESPN’s most-watched college basketball game since March 2005 when 3.78 million watched Duke play North Carolina. We are assuming they are referring to the Nielsen rating because 3.859 million is certainly more than 3.78 million. Of course, before we start getting too excited about this rating we should point out that more people watched ESPN’s College Football Scoreboard on Saturday night (2.8 rating for 4.232 million viewers) than watched an actual college basketball game.
Share this story

Focal Point: Shabazz Napier

Posted by mlemaire on November 16th, 2011

Junior co-captain Alex Oriakhi may be Connecticut’s elder statesman, sophomore Jeremy Lamb may be the team’s best player, and freshman center Andre Drummond may be the team’s best NBA prospect, but even coach Jim Calhoun knows that sophomore point guard Shabazz Napier will be the key to the Huskies’ success this season. Calhoun admitted as much to CBS Sports’ Jeff Goodman more than a week ago, but most Huskies’ fans didn’t even need Calhoun’s affirmation to understand just how vital Napier will be to the team’s chances at repeating.

Shabazz Napier just might be the key to Connecticut's chances of repeating as National Champions

A Massachusetts native, Napier was rated the No. 25 point guard in the class of 2010 and became an instant contributor for Jim Calhoun’s squad. Of course, despite playing 23 minutes and averaging nearly eight points per game, those contributions were merely an afterthought thanks to the performance of star guard Kemba Walker. Napier spent most of the regular season playing in Walker’s rather large shadow, spelling him when he was tired and playing lockdown perimeter defense on opponents. But as the season progressed, Calhoun needed Napier’s steady hand and perimeter defense on the floor in crunch time, and his season peaked in the Final Four when he hit a pair of game-clinching free throws in the team’s 56-55 victory against Kentucky.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

A Quick, Fake Summary: Kansas Couldn’t Beat Pitfall and Got Tired of Tryin’…

Posted by Gerald Smith on November 16th, 2011

Kentucky‘s freshmen entered Madison Square Garden and thought they were playing a different game. Maybe they pretended they were wearing McDonald’s All-America jerseys as each player tried to make plays one-on-one. Kentucky’s offense broke against a physical Kansas defense over and over. Freshman guard Marquis Teague had six turnovers and looked like he was button-mashing in NBA Live. Thanks to a superhuman effort by Terrence Jones and a Wildcat-wide defensive effort, Kentucky remained tied 28-all at halftime.

Coach John Calipari reminded his team at halftime they should be playing a different game. (No official word from the locker room if Calipari blew on the cartridge and held the reset button while powering on.) Kentucky entered the second half playing more team-oriented basketball and applied pressure to collect a 11-2 run. Later the Wildcats blew open the game when Doron Lamb (17 points on 3-5 3FG) and Darius Miller (five points, four assists in 20 minutes off the bench) exploited Kansas’ packed-in defense with a three-point barrage. Recovered as if expending an energy tank, Teague calmed himself and allowed no further turnovers. Freshman Anthony Davis (14 points, seven rebounds, six blocks) showcased his incredible talents and proved he could contribute offensively and defensively against stronger and thicker competition.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

SEC Morning Five: 11.16.11 Edition

Posted by Brian Joyce on November 16th, 2011

  1. Kentucky looked a little rusty on offense in the first half against Kansas on Tuesday night. There might be a good reason for that. Calipari says the Cats have just gotten around to installing necessary things like out-of-bounds and late-game plays. This doesn’t seem that unusual as practice time is limited, and games seem to be sneaking up earlier and earlier in the calendar each season. After watching the Wildcats dismantle a good KU team last night, however, it is scary to think how dominant this team can be with some additional time together.
  2. Jay Bilas went all access with Kentucky as the Cats and head coach John Calipari prepared for Kansas. Calipari spoke about his winning ways at Kentucky, competing at the highest level and getting the most out of his freshmen. This video included a good scream from Cal about poor defense and even a threat to put one of his players on a treadmill at 14 miles per hour. And now we now how Cal motivates his players at halftime.
  3. Florida coach Billy Donovan felt the Gators should have passed the ball down low to sophomore Patric Young more in the first half of last night’s game against Ohio State and standout center, Jared Sullinger. According to Gainesville Sun writer Kevin Brockman’s tweet last night, Donovan thought Young could have gotten Sullinger in foul trouble had the guards better fed the post. The Gators only passed the ball inside to Young once in the first half. Florida adjusted at halftime, and Young finished with 14 points and 12 rebounds while limiting Sullinger to only 16 points.
  4. Vanderbilt came up with a win against Bucknell, but it didn’t come easily. The Commodores played without leading scorer John Jenkins who was out with a sprained right ankle. Jenkins tweaked his ankle in the loss to Cleveland State, and his injury, along with the absence of Festus Ezeli, makes it two all-SEC players on the sidelines for the ‘Dores. And with starting point guard Brad Tinsley also nursing a wrist injury, Vandy needs to get healthy as quickly as possible. Vanderbilt will play in the TicketCity Legends Classic on Saturday against North Carolina State, and then face either Texas or Oregon State on November 21.
  5. The hot seat got hotter for a couple of SEC coaches with bad losses last night. Darrin Horn and South Carolina lost to Elon by the score of 58-53, while LSU and  Trent Johnson fell to Coastal Carolina 71-63. The SEC has lost a couple of unlikely games to mid-majors already this season, but these losses will impact the job security that both coaches feel going forward. Both came into the season feeling a bit insecure about their job prospects, and no doubt both are likely feeling quite a bit hotter under the collar at this point.
Share this story

Morning Five: K-903 Edition

Posted by rtmsf on November 16th, 2011

  1. The Tip-Off Marathon has come and gone, but it wasn’t without an envious spectacle at the Champions Classic last night at Madison Square Garden. We’ve known for months that Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski‘s pursuit of his mentor Bob Knight’s career wins D-I wins record of 902 would be matched and surpassed in the first few weeks of this college basketball season. But that didn’t make it any less touching when the man known around the sports universe simply as “Coach K” went over to his former coach after the game and embraced him with a resounding thank you. We’ll have more on #903 later this morning, but if you missed the poignant moment between arguably two of the five greatest college coaches of all-time, you can view it here. If you would like to read how and why the two men became so successful teaching young men how to play this sport, Seth Davis’ masterful piece artfully gets to the core of their relationship. And if you simply want to see a worn-out but certifiably giddy Krzyzewski addressing the Duke student body after getting off the bus last night in Durham, that’s here too. No matter what you think of the man, no objective observer of this sport can make a reasonable argument that there’s anyone more deserving of this record. Nobody. Congratulations, Coach K — your contributions to this game are immeasurable — best of luck on your way to K1K.
  2. We made reference in Tuesday’s M5 to UCLA’s Reeves Nelson facing an indefinite team suspension as a result of what was termed “attitude” problems. Yesterday we learned that one of the best players in the mid-major ranks, Kennesaw State’s Markeith Cummings, has also been suspended indefinitely for conduct detrimental to his team. The preseason Atlantic Sun POY did not play at all in Monday night’s loss at Auburn, and there appears to be no timetable as to when the 6’7″ guard who consistently produces 18/6 nights may return.
  3. Perhaps it wasn’t the best day for UCLA athletic director Dan Guerrero to announce such a thing, but on his weekly blog Tuesday he announced that the new Pauley Pavilion (currently under renovation) will have a statue of John Wooden constructed outside of it. The irony of UCLA announcing such a thing to honor the greatest of greats certainly isn’t lost on us at the same time Ben Howland’s current Bruin program appears to be coming apart at the seams. Not only has there been turmoil among players resulting in suspensions (Nelson) and public apologies (Josh Smith), but the primary issue is that UCLA is losing, and not only losing, but doing so badly. On the same day that Guerrero announced a terrific honor for a coach that once won 88 games in a row, his current coach’s team gave up 71% shooting (and 10-11 threes) at ‘home’ to Middle Tennessee State.  Wow.
  4. We complained about this in yesterday’s M5, and we’re happy that someone has finally taken the advertising overlords head on and decided that the safety of players on the basketball court supersedes the right of companies to peddle their products. During the Memphis-Belmont game yesterday, UM guard Chris Crawford slipped and fell awkwardly on one of the various EA Sports Maui Invitational stickers littering the FedEx Forum’s playing surface. The official’s crew of Rick Randall, Rick Hartzell and Bert Smith then made a unilateral decision that the plastic advertisements were a dangerous obstacle and ordered them removed for the rest of the game. It will be very interesting to see if the burgeoning groundswell of anti-sticker sentiment results in the NCAA making an injunctive decision to ban the ads in the name of player safety; or, if schools themselves begin threatening to sit their teams unless the stickers are removed. Regardless, this is a situation that has a feeling like change is imminent — we’d be surprised if these annoying ads make it through the rest of the pre-conference tournament season.
  5. The Kansas vs. Kentucky game last night wasn’t the prettiest sight to behold, but it did have the two programs with the most wins in college basketball history between them — Kentucky with (now) 2,054, Kansas with 2,039. This article by Brady McCullough at the KC Star (written before the game, incidentally) takes a look at the differing ways in which the two programs continue to rack up 30-win seasons year after year. The key takeaway from this piece is that recruiting, at the end of the day, is a zero-sum game. If there are only 20 five-star recruits in a given class, and one coach is harnessing three to five of them every year, that leaves a finite number for the rest. John Calipari’s move from Memphis to Lexington changed the recruiting game somewhat, and it appears that Bill Self and his Kansas program could be one of the resultant casualties of that shift.
Share this story

RTC Live: Champions Classic (#6 Duke vs Michigan State and #2 Kentucky vs #13 Kansas)

Posted by nvr1983 on November 15th, 2011

RTC Live is back with another nice slate of games tonight. We’ll close out the 24 Hours of Hoops Marathon with the two most anticipated games of the event. Four of the most prominent programs in college basketball — Kansas, Michigan State, Duke, and Kentucky — will lace them up on the same floor this evening.  Join us for the conversation and analysis, after the jump.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Big 12 vs. SEC: Previewing the Kentucky vs. Kansas Game

Posted by Brian Joyce on November 15th, 2011

The Champions Classic pits two of the most storied programs in college basketball in one of the most anticipated matchups of the early season. This clash features #2 ranked Kentucky Wildcats taking on the #11 Kansas Jayhawks in historic Madison Square Garden. The environment is sure to be electric as two of the nation’s marquee teams come together with a lineup of extremely talented players. The game will feature star power forwards as Kentucky’s Terrence Jones takes on the Jayhawk’s Thomas Robinson. The best of the Big 12 will meet the king of the SEC. It’s Kentucky vs. Kansas. And we have everything you need to know to prepare for the their inaugural Champions Classic game.

History of the Rivalry

This section was written by Gerald Smith. Gerald is an SEC microsite writer and the SEC Correspondent for Rush the Court.

Despite the thousands of games both teams have played over a century of competition, the Wildcats and Jayhawks have faced each other only 25 previous times. Kentucky leads the overall series 19-6, but Kansas has won the last three games and five of the last eight dating back to 1985. From 1969 until 1990, the teams faced each other yearly in December. After Kansas’ 150-95 drubbing of Kentucky’s probation-limited team — which prompted a public tirade from Kentucky head coach Rick Pitino —  the schools elected not to renew the series. The schools agreed to a home-and-home series for 2005 and 2006; Bill Self’s Jayhawks won both games against Tubby Smith’s Wildcats and the regular-season series lapsed yet again.

KU Ripped UK in the 2007 NCAA Tournament

Great games dot the all-time series. In December 1973, Roger Morningstar (father of just-graduated Jayhawk, Brady) scored 20 points to give KU its first victory over UK. On New Year’s Eve in 1984, Kentucky forward Kenny Walker dominated with 37 points and 19 rebounds as Kansas lost 92-89. KU legend Danny Manning had 30 points in the losing effort. Kentucky and Kansas played twice during the 1998-99 season: A Kentucky victory in the Great Eight and another matchup in the NCAA Midwest Regional Second Round. Wildcats forward Scott Padgett drained a three-pointer to force overtime and led his team to a 92-88 victory. Jayhawk Ryan Robertson scored 31 points in a valiant effort to extend Kansas’ season.

Tuesday’s matchup at Madison Square Garden is the 23rd time that one or both of the teams were in the Top 25 when playing each other. Kansas is 12-6 overall in MSG; Kentucky is 10-3. KU coach Bill Self is 3-1 all-time against the Wildcats and 1-0 versus UK coach John Calipari — in the 2008 National Championship game that happened for Kansas but didn’t actually happen for Calipari’s Memphis Tigers. Calipari is 0-3 all-time against the Jayhawks. The two coaches were nearly on the same coaching staff: Calipari was an assistant coach at Kansas from 1982-85, then Self joined coach Larry Brown’s coaching staff as a graduate assistant in 1985-86. Of course, KU and UK are tied all the way back to legendary coach Phog Allen and former Phog assistant turned UK coach Adolph Rupp.

Why Kansas Will Win

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Set Your TiVo: Marathon of Hoops Edition

Posted by bmulvihill on November 15th, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Twenty-four straight hours of college hoops is the dream scenario for those of us who are diehard fans of the sport.  Fortunately, it’s not a dream as ESPN brings back its Tip-Off Marathon for the fourth consecutive season.  Games got started at 12:01 AM EST this morning and go all the way till approximately 1:00 AM EST later tonight.  If you can’t sit in front of your TV for all twenty-four plus hours, then make sure you at least watch these four games.

Belmont @ #14 Memphis – 12:00 PM EST on ESPN HD (***)

Expectations are high for Memphis and Josh Pastner

  • Memphis brings high expectations into the 2011-12 season (Coaches Poll #9).  They return all five starters from last year’s team, several key reserves, and add McDonald’s All-American Adonis ThomasJosh Pastner has put together an incredible amount of talent that is going to get a stiff test in its first game of the season against an experienced Belmont team.  The Tigers need to greatly improve their turnover percentage (21.9% in 2010-11), three point shooting (32.9% in 2010-11), and defensive rebounding percentage (34.3% in 2010-11) in order to live up to those lofty expectations this season.  Pastner’s squad showed promise on the defensive end last year ranking 23rd and 25th in block percentage and steal percentage, respectively.  They need to maintain that defensive toughness while still trying to improve on the offensive end.
  • Belmont gave Duke all it could handle last Friday night in the opener at Cameron Indoor Stadium, losing 77-76.  Turnovers (17), missed threes (6-19), and the Blue Devils’ Mason Plumlee’s great work on the defensive glass (10 defensive rebounds) proved to be the difference.  Still, the Bruins showed excellent offensive balance in the loss with five players scoring in double figures.  Although the FedEx Forum is another difficult place to play, it’s a bit closer to home for Rick Byrd’s team and they have already experienced the ruckus of the Cameron Crazies.  Belmont needs to get off to a better start from the three-point line and limit turnovers to have a chance in this one.
  • This game will hinge on turnovers and second-chance points.  Belmont forced Duke to turn the ball over 19 times in the first game and ranked second in the nation last season in defensive turnover percentage.  As previously mentioned, Memphis turns the ball over a lot.  Memphis guard Joe Jackson in particular turned the ball over on 29.1% of his possessions last season.  Look for the Bruins to put all kinds of pressure on a still-young Tigers team to create easy baskets.  At the same time, Belmont relies heavily on second chance points.  The addition of the 6’7” Thomas to the Memphis lineup should certainly improve their defensive rebounding percentage.  If Thomas and the rest of the team can hit the glass hard in his first game, it will limit Belmont’s chances to pull an upset on the road.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story