Tonight’s Lede. On the 70th anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor, it’s only fitting that tonight’s slate of games was filled with the element of surprise. Astonishment at the ending of regulation in Florida versus Arizona; marvel at Vandy’s big man returning to the floor several weeks early; shock at just how far Utah basketball has fallen since its run to the finals in 1998; wonder that Badger fans didn’t pack the place tonight. There’s plenty to discuss on a busy Wednesday night in college basketball, so let’s jump to it.

Your Watercooler Moment. Florida’s Decision to Foul Arizona.

Donovan Could Not Believe That Prather Was Called For a Foul In the Late-Game Situation (AP)

Clearly Florida’s plan with five seconds to go and leading Arizona by three was to quickly foul the Wildcats to send them to the line. We’ve discussed the merits (and demerits) of this strategy in this space and on Twitter many times before, but it always creates an additional element of intrigue when a coach chooses to employ it. According to HSAC, teams only chose this strategy 12% of the time in 2009-10, and there was no discernible advantage in terms of the final outcome of the game (meaning teams won and lost at a statistically equal rates regardless of strategy). In tonight’s game, Florida’s decision for Casey Prather to immediately reach in and foul Solomon Hill on the inbounds play with five seconds remaining backfired in that the nearby referee rewarded Hill for throwing his arms into a shooting motion immediately after the catch. Three foul shot makes and a missed Florida prayer later, the game was headed to overtime. Florida ended up winning in the extra period, 78-72, but Donovan’s decision to have his player foul in that situation shows exactly why it terrifies coaches to employ the strategy. Even if it were statistically sound (and that’s not yet been proven, as far as we know), no coach wants to hear all the second-guessing that comes with such a decision when it backfires, as it very nearly did for the Gators tonight. More on the Arizona-Florida game below.

Dunkdafied. When Xavier’s Dezmine Wells dunks the ball, he shoots it down the rim like it’s a nerf ball coming out of his hand. As for Illinois’ Brandon Paul, he just takes everyone within a five-foot radius with him.

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While Washington has a couple of big challenges this week in New York City, we’ve chosen Arizona’s trip to Florida as the Pac-12 game of the week, largely for the contrast in styles and the expectation that these Wildcats are getting close to turning it on. There were high expectations for the freshman backcourt duo of Josiah Turner and Nick Johnson coming into the season, with both players regarded as top 25 recruits. But, as is often the case, both players took some time adjusting to their new surroundings. Johnson has had some ups and down, but has been a pretty consistent scorer for the Wildcats, averaging 10.8 points per game and earning his first start of the season a week ago against New Mexico State. The odds are good that he may never leave the starting five again. Turner, meanwhile, started the opener against Valparaiso, but lost his job to sophomore Jordin Mayes. Just yesterday, however, Sean Miller was hinting that Turner could earn his way back into the starting lineup as early as tonight’s game. Of course, that was all before Turner missed the final practice before the team’s trip to Gainesville and was suspended. With Turner out, sophomore Mayes will retain his starting spot and be called upon to put in plenty of extra minutes against a talented Gator backcourt.

Kenny Boynton Has Been Hot For Florida And Arizona Will Need To Cool Him Down To Stand A Chance (Credit: Kim Klement, US Presswire)

Even with Turner in the backcourt, the Wildcats were bound to have their hands full with Florida’s athletic and dymanic quartet of guards: Erving Walker, Kenny Boynton, Mike Rosario, and Bradley Beal. All four are capable of knocking down shots from increasingly improbable range, while sure to keep the defense honest with a quickness off the bounce that could earn them easy hoops in the lane or free throw opportunities. Boynton has been criticized at times for being a little too loose with his shot selection, but so far this year he has been knocking down shots at such a high rate (47.3% from three, with an effective shooting percentage of 65.9%) that his green light from Gator coach Billy Donovan has been justified. Walker, the senior point guard, is playing the best ball of his career thus far, handing out assists on over 30% of his team’s hoops while he’s in the game, and knocking down his own shots at a pretty good clip as well (56.6% eFG). Then there’s the freshman, Beal, who may be the best of all of them, despite struggling with his shot at Syracuse this past weekend. A major bonus out of the 6’3” Beal has been his ability to rebound with the big boys while often playing out of position at the three, grabbing double-digit rebounds three times in his seven games and averaging seven rebounds per game.

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SEC Set Your TiVo will take a look ahead at each week’s key games. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Two days. The SEC has given us two whole days of no basketball action. Take Monday and Tuesday to spend time with your significant other and/or children. Tell them you love them and that you enjoy their company. Then on Wednesday night, you have a choice: Shall you spend an unprecedented third day with the people-that-you-love-the-most-after-March? Or is there a game that needs to be seen?

Arizona at Florida – Wednesday, December 7, 7 PM on ESPN3 (***)

Arizona is still trying to figure things out this season. Sean Miller has started eight different players, most recently removing center Kyryl Natyazhko from the starting lineup. In Saturday’s 53-39 win over Northern Arizona, the Wildcats featured a three-guard set featuring Kyle Fogg (11 PPG, 41.4% 3FG), Jordin Mayes (7.4 PPG) and Nick Johnson (10.8 PPG, 46.4% 3FG). That leaves 6’7″ Jesse Perry (10.5 PPG, 9.1 RPG) and 6’6″ Solomon Hill (12.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.1 assists per game) in the frontcourt.

Patric Young identifies aliens and subliminal advertising using the eyewear provided by Billy Donovan (Photo via John Raoux / AP)

In the paint, Arizona may find themselves outmatched. 6’9″ Patric Young and 6’7″ Will Yeguete played up to their size in a losing effort against Syracuse. If 6’10” forward Erik Murphy can contribute — he’s been cleared to play — Arizona will have a tough time covering all the locations from which Murphy can score. Arizona must not over-commit to interior defense or else Kenny Boynton, Bradley Beal and Erving Walker will bomb away. Arizona has one of the best three-point defenses in the country even though they allowed 8-12 3FG shooting in a 61-57 loss to San Diego State.

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1. Kentucky and North Carolina played in one of the best regular season college games in quite some time. For a game with an extreme amount of hype coming in, this one lived up to all of the hype and more. It seemed from my Twitter timeline, that most fans, analysts and writers wished for five more minutes of these two heavyweights going at it. We may get forty more minutes in March or April. Here’s the roundup of everyone’s reactions to this instant classic: Jeff Goodman wrote that this one sure felt like March. CBS Sports graded each player based on their NBA prospects. Seth Davis wrote that he hopes UNC and Kentucky meet again. The Lexington Herald Leader talked about Anthony Davis’ signature moment. More on Davis’ incredible block from The Sporting News’ Mike DeCourcy. More from DeCourcy on how proud Calipari is of his freshmen. Rob Dauster of Beyond the Arc wrote that the game lived up to its hype. Jason King of ESPN wrote about how special this game really was. The guys at a Sea of Blue look at the good and the bad for the Cats. And finally, our national overlords at Rush the Court say that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was a star among stars.
2. In its 62-60 loss to Louisville on Friday night, Vanderbilt made only eight two-point field goals in the entire game. Half of its points came from threes, according to the Louisville Courier-Journal, outscoring Louisville 30-15 from beyond the arc. John Jenkins is one of the most exciting players in the country to watch coming off screens for a three point shot, especially when he is hot. However, the Commodores have become too reliant on the outside shot, even considering that their biggest inside threat, Festus Ezeli, continues to be sidelined by an injury.  The fewest three-point shots that Vandy has hoisted up so far this season is 17, in a loss to Cleveland State. Despite throwing up more than 20 three-point shots in six of their eight games, the Commodores have only shot over 40 percent once, an 11-25 (44%) effort against Monmouth.
3. Speaking of three-point shots sinking a team, Alabama lost a thriller on Thursday night to Georgetown on a last second three by Hollis Thompson. With the 57-55 victory, Georgetown snapped a 24-game home winning streak for the Tide in Coleman Coliseum. Potentially more detrimental, the Hoyas might have laid the blueprint to beating Alabama with an aggressive sagging 2-3 zone. It was Alabama’s inability to convert from three that caused its offense to stall. The Tide shot 3-16 from beyond the arc beginning with missing their first 11 three-% on 23 attempts on the season.
4. Mike Rosario, the Florida’s fourth leading scorer this season, played a season-low six minutes in a loss to Syracuse on Friday night. Rosario came in averaging over 10 points per game, but coach Billy Donovan made the decision to sit him on the bench throughout the entire second half. “The last couple days, I think emotionally, he just hasn’t been there,” said Donovan. “I tried to use him a little bit and he just did not seem himself. It was more my decision not to play him. I actually felt like we needed defense because I knew we were going to have a hard time scoring with Patric (Young) off the floor.” Guards Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker stepped up in his place with a combined 9-19 from three-point land. Boynton finished with 22 points, while Walker added 17 points and five assists. Rosario disappeared in Florida’s last top five match-up in Columbus against Ohio State. Rosario played 19 minutes, but only added five points. Rosario’s play in marquee games should be something to keep an eye on for the Gators.
5. If I had to choose a team that could ill afford an injury to a frontcourt player at this point, I would probably choose Vanderbilt. With starting center Festus Ezeli still out, the Commodores received more bad news as they have lost 6’11” center Josh Henderson with a stress fracture in his left foot. He will be sidelined for eight to 12 weeks. Henderson was averaging three points and three rebounds in limited minutes, however, was beginning to gain confidence with a 10-point, five-rebound performance against Monmouth. Henderson played a season-high 18 minutes against Xavier. Henderson’s injury should not be much of an issue once Ezeli returns to action in a couple of weeks, but will further hamper the Commodores until that time.

In order to beat the Syracuse system, Florida needed to come out guns blazing. Specifically they needed their big forward Patric Young to be enough of a post threat to score and draw collapsing Orange defenders. They also needed their collection of long-range snipers — both old (junior Kenny Boynton, senior Erving Walker) and new (junior Mike Rosario, freshman Brad Beal) — to exploit the seams in Agent Orange’s zone defense.

Boynton (22 points) and Walker (17 points, five assists) did their part. Young (six points, five rebounds) was pinned down, controlled by Syracuse’s interior defenders and played just 25 minutes. Rosario (six points) and Beal (seven points on 2-9 FG, 0-5 3FG) just didn’t bring enough bullets. The Syracuse defense bent and contorted, wasting Florida possessions (20 turnovers) and forcing the Gators to withdraw in defeat.

Syracuse wins 72-68. Tell me, Mr. Donovan, what good is good defensive pressure when you are unable to three?

To preview the match-ups in the Big East/SEC Challenge, the Big East & SEC Microsites are facing off in conversational analysis. Gerald Smith and Patrick Prendergast are going one-on-one to break down Florida facing Syracuse at the Carrier Dome.

Patrick Prendergast: In the battle for the right to wear bright orange where ever one goes and, oh yeah, to solidify a position near the top of the national rankings, #10 Florida (5-1) will take on #3 Syracuse (7-0) in a heavyweight battle at the Carrier Dome tonight. Syracuse has proven as tough and focused as they are deep, remaining undefeated despite the significant distractions created by the ongoing Bernie Fine controversy. The schedule for the Orange has not been all soft and doughy either. They took home the NIT Season Tip-Off title with victories over two good squads in Virginia Tech and Stanford. The Orange are lauded as one of the deepest teams in the country led by reigning Big East Player of the Week, 6’7” senior forward Kris Joseph (14.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG). The Gators have lost some experience and depth due to an injury to junior forward Erik Murphy.

How does Florida cope with Syracuse’s depth?

The Gators might bite off more than they can chew with Syracuse's Kris Joseph. (Photo via Bill Kostroun/AP))

Gerald Smith: One of Florida’s coping mechanisms will be stretching and distorting Syracuse’s zone. Florida has a collection of guards that can shoot from deep: junior Kenny Boynton (18.5 PPG, 48.9% 3FG), senior Erving Walker (13.7 PPG, 33% 3FG), freshman Bradley Beal (17 PPG, 35.3% 3FG) and junior Mike Rosario (12 PPG, 48.6% 3FG). The Orange have way too much length and athleticism, though; Florida can’t settle for just shooting over the 2-3 zone. The Gators will have to attack the zone with drives and make jumpers in the few open areas. That might compact the Orangemen’s defense just enough to get a few open three-pointers — and just a few might be enough for Florida’s sharpshooters.

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Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

As we move into December, the first big Saturday of the year (highlighted by the battle in Lexington) is now upon us. Not to mention we get a nice preview of things to come on Friday evening.

#6 Florida @ #3 Syracuse – 7 PM EST Friday on ESPN (*****)

• Syracuse has three distinct advantages in this game despite playing a top ten opponent. One is home court, two is height, and three is depth. The Orange have taller players at every position, one through five, and Jim Boeheim can go a legitimate ten deep into his bench. Against a Florida team that will be without forward Erik Murphy, Syracuse may be able to overwhelm the guard-heavy Gators. The key for the Orange will be defense. The 2-3 zone creates a fantastic match-up given Florida’s preferred style of offense, shooting lots of threes. If the Orange can be active and extend the perimeter of the zone, Florida will have a tough time.

• The key for Florida is simple: make threes. To do that however, the Gators must establish Patric Young early and often. Playing without Murphy, Young is Florida’s only reliable post player. If he can’t get going, Syracuse won’t have to worry about extending the zone and leaving holes in the middle. If Young gets off to a fast start, the Orange will have to respect his presence by packing its defense in a bit more inside the arc. That will give Florida’s dynamic guards the opportunity to make shots. With Kenny Boynton and Mike Rosario both shooting almost 50% from deep and two other Gators lurking as potential snipers, Syracuse doesn’t want to be forced to do that.

Can UF Establish Patric Young Inside To Give Its Shooters Room?

• It’s always fun when a team that relies heavily on guards and the three point shot gets together with a team that plays almost exclusively zone. The Syracuse defense will tempt Florida to shoot the deep ball all night but Florida must work for open shots by establishing Young and some sort of an inside-out game. Keeping the zone off balance and moving the ball effectively are always keys to finding open shots. Defensively, Florida has to do better. Syracuse is much more efficient on that end of the floor while the Gators rank a pedestrian 52nd in the nation. Although three point shooting is the big key in this game, Florida’s defense could cost them in a tight game.

Breaking Down the Play will be a regular feature during the season to provide in-depth analysis on the Xs and Os of an SEC team.

Florida has some of the most talented guards in the country. But last night in an 81-74 loss to the #3 Ohio State Buckeyes, the guards reverted back to their old ways and forced the Gator offense into too many one-on-one scenarios. UF held the ball entirely too long and displayed extremely poor shot selection. They only worked the ball inside once in the first half to center Patric Young. Erving Walker, Kenny Boynton and company failed to take advantage of the pick-and-pop scenario that they created with Erik Murphy. Murphy was 4-4 from beyond the arc, but the Gator guards didn’t exploit the Buckeyes’ failure to rotate and close out on the 6’10” shooter.

Here are three consecutive Gator possessions displaying what I think went wrong with Florida’s offensive execution:

Play 1 (11:16 remaining in second half)

In the first play, Boynton runs a pick and roll with Young at the top of the key.

Boynton and Young in a pick and roll scenario

Young does exactly what he is supposed to do, as he rolls off of William Buford and heads straight towards the basket.

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Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Twenty-four straight hours of college hoops is the dream scenario for those of us who are diehard fans of the sport.  Fortunately, it’s not a dream as ESPN brings back its Tip-Off Marathon for the fourth consecutive season.  Games got started at 12:01 AM EST this morning and go all the way till approximately 1:00 AM EST later tonight.  If you can’t sit in front of your TV for all twenty-four plus hours, then make sure you at least watch these four games.

Belmont @ #14 Memphis – 12:00 PM EST on ESPN HD (***)

Expectations are high for Memphis and Josh Pastner

• Memphis brings high expectations into the 2011-12 season (Coaches Poll #9).  They return all five starters from last year’s team, several key reserves, and add McDonald’s All-American Adonis Thomas.  Josh Pastner has put together an incredible amount of talent that is going to get a stiff test in its first game of the season against an experienced Belmont team.  The Tigers need to greatly improve their turnover percentage (21.9% in 2010-11), three point shooting (32.9% in 2010-11), and defensive rebounding percentage (34.3% in 2010-11) in order to live up to those lofty expectations this season.  Pastner’s squad showed promise on the defensive end last year ranking 23rd and 25th in block percentage and steal percentage, respectively.  They need to maintain that defensive toughness while still trying to improve on the offensive end.
• Belmont gave Duke all it could handle last Friday night in the opener at Cameron Indoor Stadium, losing 77-76.  Turnovers (17), missed threes (6-19), and the Blue Devils’ Mason Plumlee’s great work on the defensive glass (10 defensive rebounds) proved to be the difference.  Still, the Bruins showed excellent offensive balance in the loss with five players scoring in double figures.  Although the FedEx Forum is another difficult place to play, it’s a bit closer to home for Rick Byrd’s team and they have already experienced the ruckus of the Cameron Crazies.  Belmont needs to get off to a better start from the three-point line and limit turnovers to have a chance in this one.
• This game will hinge on turnovers and second-chance points.  Belmont forced Duke to turn the ball over 19 times in the first game and ranked second in the nation last season in defensive turnover percentage.  As previously mentioned, Memphis turns the ball over a lot.  Memphis guard Joe Jackson in particular turned the ball over on 29.1% of his possessions last season.  Look for the Bruins to put all kinds of pressure on a still-young Tigers team to create easy baskets.  At the same time, Belmont relies heavily on second chance points.  The addition of the 6’7” Thomas to the Memphis lineup should certainly improve their defensive rebounding percentage.  If Thomas and the rest of the team can hit the glass hard in his first game, it will limit Belmont’s chances to pull an upset on the road.

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The Fresh Start series will profile a new coach or eligible transfer who will make an impact in the Southeastern Conference this season. The next player in the series is former Rutgers guard and new addition to the Florida Gators backcourt, Mike Rosario. 

Mike Rosario is accustomed to being the star. He was the star at Rutgers where he averaged 16.2 PPG in his freshman season and 16.7 PPG in his sophomore year.  As much as Rosario was scoring for the Scarlet Knights, though, his team wasn’t winning. Both of his seasons with Rutgers were losing campaigns, including winning a total of only seven Big East games in both years combined. For Rosario, transferring elsewhere represented a chance to win.

Mike Rosario looks so much better in Florida colors.

The Florida Gators represented greener pastures for Rosario. Florida will count on Rosario to be a leader for a team that has Final Four hopes, but that doesn’t mean it will be without scrutiny. Head coach Billy Donovan said, “Rosario is playing every second of practice but what happens when something doesn’t go well? That will be the true test.” The test is already in full effect. Rosario is part of a crowded backcourt with several stars. Returnees Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker both averaged over 14 PPG last year, while newcomer Brad Beal could be the best shooter of the four and figures to start alongside Boynton and Walker. Can Rosario deal with coming off the bench as a role player when he has been so accustomed to having the ball in his hands? Rosario certainly believes he is ready to take on the challenge.

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