NCAA Regional Reset: West Region

Posted by AMurawa on March 20th, 2012

Andrew Murawa is the NCAA Tournament’s West Region correspondent.

The West Regional begins Thursday night in Phoenix with Michigan State vs. Louisville followed by Marquette vs. Florida. Our East Regional Reset published earlier today, while our South and Midwest Regional Resets will publish Wednesday. Make sure to follow RTCWestRegion for news and analysis from Phoenix throughout the weekend.

New Favorite:  Michigan State, #1, 28-7. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Nothing has changed in the past week that would make the Spartans any less the favorite in the West, and in fact, the upset of Missouri in the round of 64 only further strengthens Tom Izzo’s odds of making it four-for-four in Final Four trips as a #1 seed. While Draymond Green has been excellent all year, if anything he has stepped his game up even more in the first two rounds of the tournament, and point guard Keith Appling has shown a toughness and an ability to make plays when they’re needed. The Spartans still have a very tough slate ahead of them, but of the teams remaining here, they are the slight favorite to advance to New Orleans.

Downtown Phoenix Hosts This Year's West Regional

Horse of Darkness:  Florida, #7, 24-10. They’re the lowest remaining seed in this region, and they haven’t really beaten anybody of great importance in their first two games, but they’ve beaten those teams with conviction. Their wins over Virginia and Norfolk State have come by an average of 30 points. And while all of their players deserve credit, freshman guard Bradley Beal may be the hottest of them all, not only scoring 14 in each of his games (with three threes mixed in there), but helping out the front line by averaging 10 boards. The Gators are still the underdogs in this region, but they match up well with a Marquette team that doesn’t do a great job of defending the three-point line, and, of course, Billy Donovan has a little bit of experience this deep in the tourney.

Biggest Surprise (1st Weekend):  Norfolk State 86, Missouri 84. This was really the only upset of even major proportions in the first weekend, and boy, was it a doozy. While the Lehigh upset of Duke may have earned more press among casual basketball fans just because of the Blue Devils’ reputation, the Spartan victory over Missouri was even more stunning. Not only was Mizzou a strong two-seed with an argument for a one-seed, Duke was generally considered a pretty weak two-seed. And Lehigh had a strong argument that they deserved a higher seed, while Norfolk State was plenty happy to avoid a 16-seed. In short, not only is the Kyle O’Quinn-led upset of the Tigers the most surprising result in the first weekend of the West region, it is one of the more surprising results in the history of the NCAAA Tournament.

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NCAA Tournament Tidbits 03.19.12 Edition

Posted by Brian Goodman on March 19th, 2012

The NCAA Tournament is here and there’s more news, commentary and analysis than any of us can possibly keep up with. To make things a little easier, we’ll bring you a list of daily links gathered about teams in each of the four regions all the way through the Final Four.

East

  • After an atrocious opening game where they nearly became the first #1 seed to a #16 seed, Syracuse rebounded with a solid performance that helped remind some people why they were a #1 seed in the first place.
  • One of the keys to Wisconsin‘s consistent play in the postseason has been there tendency to never be satisfied. The Badgers should not have much difficulty finding motivation on Thursday against what should be a pro-Syracuse crowd in Boston.
  • John Gasser was feeling the effects of a gastrointestinal illness on Saturday, but that did not prevent him giving the Badgers what they needed to beat Vanderbilt despite playing limited minutes.
  • With their win on Sunday night Cincinnati advanced to the Sweet Sixteen and set up one of the more intriguing match-ups with an in-state showdown against Ohio State. The Buckeyes hold a 5-4 series edge, but outside of a game in 2006 the last game between the two schools was in 1962 when they played for the second year in a row in the National Championship Game.
  • Hardcore college basketball fans have known about the importance of Aaron Craft all season, but that point was driven home with his actions on and off the court over the weekend.
  • Of course, glossing over the play of Jared Sullinger in the team’s win over Gonzaga would be a major oversight. When the Buckeyes needed big plays it was their big man who came up with exactly what the team needed.

South

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Bracket Prep: Michigan State, Florida State, Vanderbilt, St. Bonaventure, Long Beach State, & New Mexico State

Posted by EJacoby on March 11th, 2012

Selection Sunday is here! We’ve been providing you with summaries of every automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, and this post concludes all of the conference tourney winners. Big Ten, SEC, ACC, A-10, Big West, and WAC were the last ones to complete their championships. Here’s everything you need to know.

Michigan State

Draymond Green is the Force Behind the Spartans' Strong Attack (AP Photo/A. Goldis)

  • Big Ten Champion (27-7, 16-5)
  • RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #4/#3/#3
  • Adjusted Scoring Margin = +17.3
  • Likely NCAA Seed: #1

Three Bruce Pearls of Wisdom.

  1. After winning the Big Ten Tournament, expect Michigan State to steal the last #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. There’s nothing that this team hasn’t done to deserve the top line. 27-7 against the #1 strength of schedule, co-champion of the best conference in the country, and Big Ten Champions. This is a classic Tom Izzo team that’s ferocious on the boards and executes efficiently on both offense and defense. The Spartans run through their Big Ten Player of the Year, but this is a deep team that relies on many contributors in different areas. A late season ACL injury to blossoming freshman forward Branden Dawson was horrible news and is potentially devastating. But Dawson was still not much of an offensive factor and the team won the Big Ten Tournament without him, showing an ability to adapt.
  2. Draymond Green is the Big Ten Player of the Year who does everything that you want in a senior star leader. 16.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game is what Green provides. The 45% field goal percentage doesn’t look great until you realize that Green does much of his work on the perimeter, including hitting the most three-pointers on the team. The rest of this team is loaded with strong athletes and defenders, from the interior duo of Derrick Nix and Adriean Payne to the perimeter players Keith Appling and Brandon Wood, and beyond to the reserves. Appling is crucial to this team as the playmaking point guard with explosive agility to make plays for his teammates and himself.
  3. Most things in March Madness are unpredictable, but one of the few guarantees is that Tom Izzo’s teams will play their best basketball in the NCAA Tournament. This Izzo team is loaded and ready to dance with as difficult a combination to beat as nearly anyone in the country. A +17.3 adjusted scoring margin is the fourth best in the nation, led my MSU’s elite defense. The Spartans allow just 37.7% defensive field goal shooting, the second best in the land. Their 89.9 defensive efficiency also ranks in the top 10. Throw in their own 47.7% field goal shooting, and this team’s shooting percentage disparity is fantastic, which is always a top formula for success. Their 55.2% rebound percentage is top 10 in the nation, as well. The numbers look great for Michigan State. But this team just lost its best athlete to the ACL injury and it doesn’t have the amount of elite scorers that a usual #1 seed does. Instead, this team is so efficient defensively that it will be difficult to knock off. Teams that gave Michigan State trouble were those that caught fire from the outside while holding their own defensively, like Indiana. Expect an awesome clash of styles between MSU and its opponent in a Sweet Sixteen matchup, if it can avoid an upset from the 8-9 seed, or 10-7 seed if it receives a #2 seed.

Florida State

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Big Ten Tournament Preview & Season Wrap-Up

Posted by Brian Goodman on March 8th, 2012

Bill Hupp is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

Conference Tournament Preview

After a thrilling regular season, it’s on to Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Despite being a three-seed, Ohio State has to be considered the favorite given how well they ended the regular season. If either Michigan State or OSU wins the Big Ten Tournament, they will get strong consideration for a one-seed. Teams like Wisconsin, Indiana and Purdue can all improve their NCAA Tournament seeds with strong showings this weekend.

Northwestern is the only clear bubble team in the conference, and as such is under the most pressure to string some wins together. If the Wilcats can beat Minnesota in the first round, they’ll face a Michigan team that they only lost to twice this season, though both losses came in overtime. Two wins in the Big Ten tournament should make them a virtual lock for their first-ever tournament birth, but it’s much easier said than done with this level of competition.

A Look Back

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What Does Branden Dawson’s Injury Mean For Michigan State?

Posted by jnowak on March 6th, 2012

Michigan State knows plenty about the Kenyon Martin Effect. When Martin — the consensus 2000 National Player of the Year as a senior at Cincinnati after averaging 18.9 points, 9.7 boards, and 3.5 blocks per game — broke his leg in the Conference USA Tournament, it drastically affected the Bearcats’ hopes for a national title. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee took notice as well, and knocked Cincinnati down to a #2 seed, when they probably would have otherwise been the #1 overall seed. It proved to be somewhat prophetic as the Bearcats were upset in the second round by Tulsa, and MSU went on to win Tom Izzo’s only national championship.

Without Branden Dawson, can the Spartans win the Big Ten Tournament or make a run in the Big Dance? (Daniel Mears / Detroit News)

Branden Dawson — the Michigan State freshman wing who tore his ACL in Sunday’s loss to Ohio State–  is no Kenyon Martin. Martin went on to be the #1 pick in the NBA Draft that year and has had a nice pro career, while Dawson still has plenty of room to grow though he likely has the highest ceiling of anyone on this Spartans squad. But how will Dawson’s injury affect Michigan State’s postseason chances and the chances the Committee gives them? The Spartans still have to play the Big Ten Tournament (they will be the #1 seed in Indianapolis this weekend), but are unlikely to receive a #1 seed in the Big Dance. If they win the Big Ten Tourney, they are likely a lock for a #2 seed. If they fizzle out, a #3 seed is possible.

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Big Ten Morning Five: 03.02.12 Edition

Posted by jnowak on March 2nd, 2012

  1. Because of a couple of injury setbacks, Robbie Hummel isn’t the physical player he once was, or he would likely be challenging Draymond Green and Jared Sullinger for Big Ten Player of the Year honors. But the senior has kept his head up through it all and deserves recognition for the way he has finished his career at Purdue. Hummel has really turned it on the last few games, determined to end his time in West Lafayette with a bang.
  2. For weeks, we have been marveling at all the things that Tom Izzo has his Michigan State squad doing right. Now, we are looking at all the things that must change in order for the Spartans to finish the season undefeated at home with a win against Ohio State this weekend and secure the Big Ten title outright. What a difference a loss makes. True enough, Izzo has been saying all season that this team has a high ceiling, but its margin for error can be quite small. Those errors were at work this week in a 70-55 loss to Indiana. Matt Charboneau asks whether Keith Appling can regain his confidence, Brandon Wood can play consistently, and Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne can defend regularly? And can they do it in time to make it count?
  3. Heading down to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Tournament? Tickets? Check. Hotel? Check. Places nearby to eat and enjoy the game? Check. The Indianapolis Star has the all-important guide to where Big Ten fans can enjoy the tournament (outside of Conseco Fieldhouse, of course) during the Tournament. Make sure you check it out so you don’t accidentally stumble into your rival’s bar.
  4. If only Indiana could play all of its NCAA Tournament games at Assembly Hall, then it would certainly be a favorite to reach the Final Four. Still, Grantland’s Shane Ryan says, the Hoosiers could be difficult to deal with come the Big Dance. Indiana has beaten three Top 5 teams this year (Ohio State, Kentucky, and Michigan State) and Ryan says this group is similar to a past Indiana team that garnered some March success. Can Tom Crean replicate that magic?
  5. If you could become just the fifth player in your program’s history to score 1,000 points, pull down 500 rebounds and register 150 blocks and still have your career be considered “underwhelming,” would you take that? That’s how Chip Scoggins sees Ralph Sampson III‘s career at Minnesota as it comes to a close. Scoggins says that, despite having started 113 games for the Golden Gophers, Sampson’s impact on the program has been minimal. What do you think? Would you have expected or hoped for more?
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Big Ten Game On: 02.25.12 Edition

Posted by Ryan Terpstra on February 25th, 2012

Six games this weekend in the Big Ten, and tonight features two of the conference leaders.  Let’s get to it.

Purdue @ #11 Michigan, 6 PM, BTN

Michigan's Senior Night against Purdue will be a big game for Zach Novak and Stu Douglass (US Presswire)

  • The Boilermakers need a win over a ranked opponent really bad.  Like, really, REALLY bad.  That’s because Purdue is 1-5 against teams in the RPI Top 25 and 4-7 against the Top 50.  A win would obviously help those stats out, and possibly put an end to the bubble talk surrounding the Boilermakers’ chances for an invite to the NCAA Tournament.  Robbie Hummel is doing his part, shooting 50% from the field and averaging 24.8 PPG over his last four contests. He also dropped a stat line of 16 points, five boards, and six assists the last time these two teams met, and will be expected to lead again.  Matt Painter will have to devise a plan to slow down the smoking-hot Wolverines, who have won five of their last six and have yet to lose at home this season.  It will be an emotional Senior Night in Ann Arbor, as fan favorites Zach Novak and Stu Douglass will be honored.  Douglass hasn’t missed a game in his Michigan career, while Novak was named the program’s first Academic All-American since 1984.

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Big Ten Morning Five: 02.23.12 Edition

Posted by Ryan Terpstra on February 23rd, 2012

  1. No one was surprised that Indiana was able to easily handle their non-league match-up with North Carolina Central last night.  Cody Zeller had another solid game, as the freshman dropped in 17 points and grabbed seven rebounds to lead the way.  The victory gave IU 21 wins on the year, and with their NCAA ticket punched, the fan base is one again rabid for Hoosier basketball.  There is no question that Indiana has great fans, but with some lean years in the first few seasons under Tom Crean, the Crimson and Cream faithful are glad that their program is once again back to meeting expectations.
  2. One team still looking for a guaranteed invite to the Big Dance is Purdue.  Matt Painter is trying to lead the Boilermakers to their 6th straight tournament appearance, but it will be more difficult after the recent dismissal of Kelsey Barlow.  The versatile Barlow often guarded the opposing team’s best scoring option, and now Purdue will have to adjust its defensive schemes.  One player who has picked up his game recently is Robbie Hummel, who torched Nebraska for 29 points in the team’s 83-65 win last night.  With 18 wins and three games left to play, Purdue has to win two of its next three to get to that magic 20-win plateau that many believe will get the team into the NCAA Tournament.
  3. Michigan’s rise to the top of the Big Ten has been a story worth watching this season.  But while young players like freshman point guard Trey Burke and sophomore shooting guard Tim Hardaway, Jr., have been getting the most press, the reason the program has been able to rise back up is also due to the efforts of two seniors.  Zach Novak and Stu Douglass were two unheralded recruits that have bought into the John Beilein system, and have made big plays and big shots throughout their careers.  The 6’4″ Novak has played out of position (at power forward) his entire career, and still has managed over 1,000 career points. Novak and Douglas also each rank in the Top 10 all-time in minutes played and three-pointers made in Michigan history.  They are a big reason why Michigan could win its first Big Ten title in 26 years.
  4. In a game that probably drew an audience of opposing fans as well as Michigan State fans, the Spartans were able to avoid an upset at the hands of Minnesota last night, 66-61.  The Gophers built a big second-half lead but were unable to hang on down the stretch, committing several turnovers and not finding good looks offensively.  For MSU, it was another example of being able to adjust and overcome in a difficult situation.  Keith Appling had two brutal fouls late in the game, sending a jump-shooter to the free throw line both times, but he atoned, going 6-for-6 from the foul line down the stretch to squash any Gopher comeback attempt.
  5. The Big Ten regular season has just a few games left and for seniors like Penn State’s Cam Woodyard that means only a few more guaranteed chances to play before the Big Ten Tournament.  Woodyard has experienced a lot of ups and downs in his Nittany Lion career; winning an NIT championship as a freshman, and also losing 12 games in a row his sophomore season.  He’s stepped his game up this season, and will be a key for Pat Chambers as Penn State tries to mount some late-season magic these next couple weeks.
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Four Thoughts On Wisconsin vs. Michigan State

Posted by jnowak on February 17th, 2012

Wisconsin came into Breslin Center in East Lansing hoping to exact some revenge for Michigan State‘s rare win in Madison on January 3, but left after a worse thumping than their loss at the Kohl Center. The Spartans are peaking right now, playing the kind of defense Tom Izzo loves to see and executing game plans exceptionally. Here are a few things that stood out in the Spartans’ 69-55 victory Thursday night.

Branden Dawson and Michigan State made another statement Thursday against Wisconsin. (Al Goldis/AP)

  1. Keith Appling’s performance — The sophomore guard is vital to Michigan State’s chances of winning the conference championship and advancing deep into the NCAA Tournament, and he showed why on Thursday night. He controlled the Spartans’ offense (four assists and just two turnovers in 35 minutes), got into the lane, and was equally — if not more — important on the defensive end. Appling proved last season he could be one of Michigan State’s perimeter defenders and kept Wisconsin star Jordan Taylor out of sorts the entire evening (Taylor finished with just three field goals). The Spartans don’t need Appling to put up 20 points every game, but if he can be reliable defensively, keep the team’s offensive flow in rhythm and remain a threat to get to the hoop, he takes this team to another level. Read the rest of this entry »
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Big Ten Morning Five: 02.17.12 Edition

Posted by jnowak on February 17th, 2012

  1. Wednesday night’s 67-62 loss to Purdue may have been the nail in the coffin as far as Bruce Weber‘s job goes at Illinois, and it only seems more so when you hear the coach address the situation. Weber sounded defeated after the game, claiming responsibility for many of the team’s shortcomings and admitting he should have done some things differently to help the Fighting Illini better succeed. “The sad thing about the whole thing — and I guess it’s my fault — is instead of creating toughness and developing a team, I coached not to lose all year,” Weber said, according to the Decatur Herald-Review. “That’s really sad.”
  2. What a difference a year makes in Bloomington. As the Indianapolis Star‘s Bob Kravitz points out, it wasn’t long ago that 20-win seasons were the norm for the Indiana basketball program. Then Kelvin Sampson happened. Tom Crean was brought in to pick up the pieces and, all of a sudden, Hoosiers fans were stuck with 20-loss seasons instead. But after going 12-20 a season ago, the Hoosiers have reached that 20-win plateau and it seems finally safe to say that basketball is back in Bloomington.
  3. When you think of great freshmen in the Big Ten, the names that quickly come to mind are Cody Zeller, Trey Burke, and Branden Dawson. But Iowa‘s Aaron White has been as good as any newcomer this season, and seems to have quite the future ahead of him with the Hawkeyes. White is averaging 10.2 PPG and a team-best 5.2 RPG and, after he was only lightly recruited out of high school, is quickly making coach Fran McCaffery look very bright for bringing him on board.
  4. Earlier this week, we took a look at the Big Ten’s four legitimate title contenders and what their remaining schedules mean for their quest for the crown. On Thursday, AnnArbor.com‘s Nick Baumgardner examined the four most important players for those contenders. And if you think the list is a no-brainer, with guys like Big Ten Player of the Year candidates Jared Sullinger and Draymond Green, think again.
  5. Michigan State‘s do-everything senior Draymond Green likes to talk a big game, but he’s also shown that he can back it up. Green is one of just a handful of front-runners for Big Ten Player of the Year,  but says he sometimes wishes he was playing in the past. “They changed the rules,” Green told the Detroit Free Press, in reference to the difference between the game now and in the ’80s. Not just all the talking, but “you could chuck somebody and get away with it. You could slam somebody and get away with it.” Right now, Green will have to settle for letting his game do most of the talking.
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