It hasn’t been the easiest couple of weeks for Big 12 fans. Kansas may have fallen off the #1 seed line and Iowa State and Oklahoma are firmly on the bubble after the first full day of the conference tournament. What once looked like possibly six Big 12 teams in the Dance headlined with a #1 seed could now be four teams and no representation on the top line. Baylor’s hopes for an at-large bid were dashed after a phantom call on Phil Forte in the waning seconds of tonight’s game against Oklahoma State gave the Cowboys a 74-72 win. Unfortunately for the Bears, they still needed at least another win over Kansas State to make a serious case, so there won’t be any favors from the selection committee. Here’s where the potential NCAA Tournament teams stand and how they can improve their position heading into Friday’s action:

Bill Self and Kansas Have Ruled The Big 12 Tournament The Last Decade.

1. Kansas (27-5)

• What They Are Looking At: #2 seed
• Best Likely Scenario and Who The Need Help From: If the Jayhawks can win the Big 12 Tournament and beat Kansas State (#20 RPI) in the championship game, they could still land a #1 seed. The problem is, Kansas looks to be sandwiched between Louisville and Georgetown right now. If either of those teams wins the Big East Tournament, they would  get a #1 seed over the Jayhawks. If Kansas wins the Big 12 Tournament and neither of those teams wins the Big East Tournament, the Jayhawks will earn a top seed.
• Worst Case Scenario: #2 seed

2. Kansas State (26-6)

• What They Are Looking At: #4 seed
• Best Likely Scenario And Who They Need Help From: Kansas State has a great record but its resume doesn’t quite match. They’re currently the second-best #4 seed over at Bracket Matrix, but have fewer RPI top 50 wins (five) than teams directly above them in Ohio State (six), Marquette (seven) and New Mexico (eight). Even if the Wildcats beat Oklahoma State and Kansas to win the conference tournament, they’d still have as many top 50 wins as Marquette, which lost tonight to Notre Dame. If Ohio State and New Mexico lose in their first games of their conference tournaments, the Wildcats could sneak into a #3 seed with three wins in Kansas City.
• Worst Case Scenario: The record is nice, but with 10 wins coming against teams outside the RPI top 200 and a bad strength of schedule (#63), a loss tomorrow could earn them a #5 seed. Read the rest of this entry »

1. The last game of Thursday’s session was perhaps the best. Oklahoma State survived a massive collapse to outlast the desperate Baylor Bears, 74-72. The Cowboys led by as many as 20 points late in the first half yet the Bears chipped away at the lead until they got it to a four-point deficit with 25 seconds left in regulation. BU’s Gary Franklin then tied it seconds later on a four-point play from the corner. After the Cowboys nailed two subsequent free throws, Pierre Jackson, who was all types of awesome in scoring 24 of his 31 points in the second half, missed a potential game-winner at the buzzer. Now what? The good in this is that we’ll get a look at Oklahoma State-Kansas State Version 3.0 as both teams split the regular season series. The bad news is of course that Baylor’s chances at an at-large bid is all but shot at this point. It looks like it’ll be the third time in the Scott Drew era that Baylor will miss the NCAA Tournament a year after making it. 
   
2. We had a comeback attempt to close out the night but there was an actual one much earlier in the day. Iowa State found themselves down 14 early, and even 11 points halfway through the second half, only to take down the Sooners, 73-66. A storyline that won’t get much attention is the exchange senior guard Korie Lucious had with his coach Fred Hoiberg. Hoiberg benched Lucious in the second half mainly due to his poor shooting (0-of-8). After the move, the Cyclones began to make their comeback and during a subsequent timeout, Lucious told Hoiberg to “keep going with these guys” because they had “a great flow going.” It turned out to be the right thing to do and now ISU gets its third shot at nailing down a win vs. Kansas.
3. Jordan Tolbert’s layup with 3:11 left in the first half cut the Kansas lead to two over Texas Tech and signaled to the Jayhawks that they weren’t running away with the game any time soon. And then KU ran away with it. Ben McLemore was doing plenty of Ben McLemore things, scoring 24 points and hitting 8-of-12 from the field, four of those on three-pointers. Bill Self emptied out his bench later in the game and gave us a chance to see some Jayhawks who will make bigger impacts on future teams. Freshmen Anrio Adams went for 11 points in just five minutes and Perry Ellis had his second good game in a row, totaling eight points and seven rebounds. It’s only a matter of time before these guys win a Big 12 title of their own.
4. Kansas State shot only 40% as a team, grabbed the same number of rebounds as Texas, missed eight free throws, and still beat the Horns by 17. Wait, what? It’s just another win in a long line of uninteresting and non-flashy wins for the Wildcats, who now improve to 26-6 on the season. Rodney McGruder poured in an efficient 24 points (10-of-20), eight of those coming on a K-State 10-0 run to give the Wildcats a double digit lead for good. He also pulled down seven rebounds. They’re still under the radar, aren’t they? Give it a week.
5. Why does Marcus Smart wear #33? There is an answer and it further amplifies the kind of person this young man is. The number three has special meaning in his family. His three older brothers all wore three when they played in high school and that includes Smart’s half-brother Todd Westbrook, who was the first to don the number. Westbrook lost his long battle with cancer in 2004 at the age of 33. This surprises no one. You might think I’m going overboard with this but we don’t just need more Marcus Smart like prospects in college basketball, we need more Marcus Smart like people on this planet. I bet John Wooden would’ve loved to coach this kid.

Danny Spewak (@dspewak) is a Big 12 microsite writer. He filed this report after the Kansas State-Texas game in Kansas City this evening.

Three Key Takeaways:

Kansas State Inched Closer to a Big 12 Title

1. Rodney McGruder, aka The Zone Buster: Against Texas’ active 2-3 zone, McGruder was unstoppable. The Wildcats weren’t flawless, and they weren’t always able to get the ball inside, but they knocked down enough three-pointers to pull away from the Longhorns. Credit McGruder for that, as he made four threes and finished with 20 points on 10-of-20 shooting. Much like Kansas’ Ben McLemore in the earlier quarterfinal, McGruder had to make up for a relative lack of scoring production by his teammates. Angel Rodriguez helped, scoring 13 points and finding holes in the zone to finish with five assists, but this was McGruder’s game.
2. Kansas City, Here We Come (Back): Following the Big 12 Tournament this weekend, the Sprint Center will host an NCAA Tournament pod next weekend. There’s no doubt Kansas State wants to make a trip back to Kansas City to play in these friendly confines in the second and third rounds, but it needed a strong showing this weekend to convince the selection committee it deserves the advantage. This quarterfinal victory was a start. Two more victories should all but lock up a return to Kansas City, but nothing’s guaranteed with the committee. Still, it’s hard to envision it sending KSU anywhere but KC if it wins the Big 12 title this weekend.
3. Myck Kabongo Needs Help: Kabongo scored two points this evening. He missed all five shots he took from the field, turned the ball over five times and could not pull Texas out of a severe scoring drought late in the second half. In perhaps his final collegiate game, that’s something Kabongo will have to live with. In his defense, though, he’s simply under too much pressure to perform, considering the youth of his teammates and complete lack of scoring options around him. This team runs through him. He has the ball in his hands at all time, and even when he’s penetrating and creating, nobody can knock a shot down. He had seven assists, but he could have had 15. That has to take a toll on the sophomore point guard. This team has played drastically better with him in the lineup, so it’s hard to blame him for any of Texas’ woes tonight.

Star of the Game: Rodney McGruder led all scorers with 24. Rodriguez was the only other Wildcat in double figures. He shot the ball well, rebounded the ball well and scored from everywhere on the floor. Easy choice here for Star of the Game.

Sights and Sounds: Kabongo’s leadership is noticeable this season. His coaches praised his attitude during the suspension this year, and it’s obviously carried over to the court. On Thursday, all he did was talk. And we mean that in the best way possible. He talked on defense, got in his teammates faces and always had his mouth moving. He’s grown up, and he’s the clear leader of this team. The Longhorns don’t have the experience or personnel for it to matter, but credit Kabongo for growing as a person over the last year or so.

Wild Card: KSU’s D.J. Johnson played big tonight– in every sense of the word. He made all four of his field goals, scored eight points in 15 minutes and threw down a thunderous putback in the second half. On a night where Thomas Gipson struggled and even badly airballed a jumper, Johnson was a nice surprise for Bruce Weber.

What’s Next: Kansas State advances to play either Baylor or Oklahoma State in the semifinals on Friday.

1. It’s been quite the year for Kansas State first-year coach Bruce Weber. On March 9, 2012, Weber was fired as the head coach of Illinois. A year and a couple days later, he was named Big 12 Coach of the Year (I wonder how many times that’s happened to a coach). The article walks us through how Weber tackled the largest recruiting class he’d ever seen: the entire Kansas State roster. It’s crazy to think that had K-State not called Weber, he would have been off to the College of Charleston. It would have been a shame, regardless of how bad he looked in media circles last season, because he was worthy of a better job.
2. Back in late January, TCU coach Trent Johnson called this team the most talented in the country. Now it’s Travis Ford passing the complements Baylor’s way, calling them “as talented as anyone” in the Big 12. Sure there’s some hyperbole somewhere in these statements, but the fact is they returned important pieces from last year’s Elite Eight team including the conference preseason player of the year. Even as a non-Baylor fan, it’s been so frustrating for me to watch a team like this hang on for their tournament lives lately when they should be a team worried about seeding like Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma or Iowa State. If they get into the Dance, beating the Cowboys on Thursday (and likely the Wildcats the day after) is what I think will be enough to get them there. Of course, they could just win the whole thing and leave no doubt about it as well.
3. We love Bob Huggins for his frankness and quotability at press conferences, but lordy, don’t quote him on this: “I think we can still can make a run [in the conference tournament].” I understand why he said it, but with all due respect, it’s not gonna happen. If there’s going to be a team or teams that’ll make a surprise run in Kansas City, it’s probably Baylor or Texas. If I were Huggins, I’d want this season to end as swiftly as possible.
4. Had you asked me how many conference games TCU would have won in November, I would have said none. But then they went and beat Kansas and Oklahoma, two teams with Tournament plans for next week. What’s next for Horned Frogs basketball? An outstanding recruiting class, that’s what. Led by Karviar Shepherd, the Class of 2013’s third-best center, Trent Johnson hopes that this year’s smidgen of success can build serious momentum for recruiting top talent in the Metroplex. The problem for previous coaches at TCU hasn’t been their ability to recruit players from Dallas-Fort Worth but to reel in the best that DFW has to offer. Hopefully, Johnson’s onto something there.
5. There wasn’t a whole lot of good that came for Kansas out of the Baylor loss. They failed to clinch the outright Big 12 regular season title, they were blown out on the road (which almost never happens), and they lost a regular season game to the Bears for the first time in 12 years. But we did see some potential shine through for KU freshman Perry Ellis. He hit 5-of-7 from the field in the most playing time he has received since the season opener. He’s one good offseason in the weight room away from becoming another Marcus Morris-type for KU (Ellis: 6’8″, 225 pounds; Morris: 6’9″, 235 pounds).

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @TheMulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

With the first tickets to the Big Dance being given out this weekend and regular season titles still up for grabs in the Big East, Big Ten, ACC, and A-10, it should be one amazing weekend of college hoops. It’s the most amazing time of the year, so sit back and enjoy. Let’s get to the breakdowns!

#17 Syracuse at #6 Georgetown – 12:00 PM EST, Saturday on ESPN (****)

Boeheim is looking for answers at Syracuse.

• Syracuse broke a three-game losing streak this week against DePaul while Georgetown lost for the first time in 11 games against Villanova. With the loss, the Hoyas dropped into a three-team tie for first place in the Big East with Marquette and Louisville. The Orange have struggled recently and had a tough time against the Hoyas defense two weeks ago at the Carrier Dome. Jim Boeheim’s team only went 4-20 from downtown and could not get anything going from their guards. The Hoyas struggled on offense as well but were able to rely on Otto Porter once again who put in 33 points. In order for Syracuse to snap out of this funk, they need to get more production from guards Brandon Triche and Michael Carter-Williams. If both players can take better shots by driving the ball to the hoop, we will see a completely different Syracuse team. Georgetown put Villanova on the foul line 42 times earlier this week. Given the size of Triche and Carter-Williams, both players should be going straight to the basket in an attempt to draw fouls or get lay-ups. Keep a close on both players, as they are the keys to this game. If they are settling for jumpers, Syracuse is going to struggle again.

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Just as Indiana planned on capturing the outright Big Ten championship and all but securing the #1 overall seed on Tuesday, the Hoosiers lost on senior night to Ohio State. Twenty-four hours later, Georgetown — a sexy pick lately to land a #1 seed — lost to Villanova, leaving the Hoyas’ chances at a top seed at a minimum heading into the Big East Tournament. The overall #1 seed now appears to be a three-way race between Indiana, Duke and Kansas. The Jayhawks have quietly won seven in a row and will win their ninth consecutive Big 12 championship with a victory at Baylor Saturday or a loss by Kansas State (which faces Oklahoma State on the road). Kansas will need to win out through the Big 12 Tournament and could benefit from losses by Indiana and Duke if they want the overall top seed, but a #1 seed seems close to a sure thing. That’s a far cry from a month ago. Here’s how I’d handicap the top seeds as of today.

Seven Straight Wins And Inconsistent Play From Everyone Else Has The Jayhawks In A Good Spot

Safe Bets For a #1 Seed

• Duke (26-4, 8-2 in last 10): Getting Ryan Kelly back was huge, especially with him dropping 36 points in his return, a big win at home over Miami.
• Indiana (25-5, 7-3 in last 10): Still the best team in the country, but the gap is closing. They need to beat Michigan this weekend to avoid losing three out of four.
• Kansas (26-4, 7-3 in last 10, won seven in a row): If they can win at Baylor and win the Big 12 Tournament it would be 11 wins in a row, locking up a #1 seed.

Still In The Hunt

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1. We’ve long been Rick Barnes apologists here on the Big 12 microsite. He’s an easy target for criticism, often slammed for not reaching his potential and wasting NBA talent at Texas. The word “overrated” is thrown around a lot with Barnes, and during this difficult season, he’s now in even more trouble from a public opinion standpoint. But at least one person agrees with us that it’s perhaps overkill to lay so much blame on Barnes for this season. Nobody’s claiming that Barnes is Bob Knight, but he’s done a terrific job in Austin for a sustained period of time. Myck Kabongo problems aside, he also had a roster solely consisting of freshmen and sophomores and knew he’d have some growing pains. When the NCAA suspended Kabongo for much of the season, the problems intensified, and it resulted in a disaster of sorts. Give Barnes some time to sort out his program. After a decade of winning at Texas, he deserves at least that much.
2. Bill Self has never endured the kind of struggles Barnes has gone through this year, but they’re similar in the respect that they’ve both won at several schools. Self, of course, has won a little bit more, and his journey from Oral Roberts to Tulsa to Illinois to Kansas has been an interesting one. It’s easy to point to what Self has accomplished in Lawrence, but sometimes, it’s nice to take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s refreshing to hear him talk about the early days at Oral Roberts, too, and it’s especially intriguing to consider the alternate possibilities in his career path. Had Self gotten the Missouri job in 1999, there’s no telling what the college basketball universe would look like right now.
3. Staying with the coaching theme, here’s a look at Lon Kruger, another renowned coach in the world of hoops. If there’s anyone who epitomizes the trite phrase “he-wins-everywhere-he’s-been,” it’s Kruger. He has his Oklahoma team on the verge of the NCAA Tournament, which isn’t a surprise to anybody. It is surprising, however, that it took only two years for Kruger to create a new culture of winning in Norman. Wyoming transfer Amath M’Baye and the freshmen additions have helped, but he’s gotten his returnees to buy in as well. At this point, he’s successfully cleaned up the mess created by the Jeff Capel fallout.
4. If Kansas State wins at Oklahoma State this weekend, it’ll clinch at least a share of the Big 12 title. It’ll take the outright crown with a Kansas loss. With a Jayhawks victory, though, the “tie” in the standings will be a “tie” in name only. Kansas swept its in-state rival, so it’ll be the real champion and the top seed. Of course, that won’t stop the Wildcats from celebrating, as long as they win themselves this weekend. And hey, the year Kansas won a national title in 2008, it tied Texas atop the standings but lost to the Longhorns in the head-to-head matchup (though they played only once — in Austin). At this point, Bruce Weber will take any hardware he can get in his first season in Manhattan.
5. West Virginia has clearly fallen this season — wanna know why? Here’s a pretty good assessment of the situation. Entering the 2012-13 season, the Mountaineers weren’t league contenders by any means, but they weren’t considered slouches, either. They had big-time transfers, an improving sophomore class and a team seemingly capable of playing for an NCAA Tournament berth. That hasn’t happened, and it’s interesting to look at some of the recruits who did not pan out and left Bob Huggins a little thin.

What more does Kansas State have to do to get people to care about them this season? It seems nothing about this Wildcats’ team screams elite. They are tied for first in a down Big 12, they hired a then-unpopular coach last March, they don’t score a bunch of points like Oklahoma State, and they don’t even have the best player in their league. Yet here they are, currently ranked in the top-10 of both polls.

Kansas State is a sleeper. With that said, everybody’s still sleeping on them. (Tony Gutierrez/AP)

This season didn’t get off to the start K-State would have liked. Yes, the Wildcats ran through their first few games with ease but star Rodney McGruder initially struggled to find his place in Bruce Weber’s motion offense. In the first five games, McGruder averaged just 10 PPG while shooting 39 percent from the field and 13 percent from behind the arc. He didn’t have his best game until the Wildcats played USC Upstate on December 2. Only then did McGruder begin to find his place: 22 points on 8-of-16 shooting to go along with seven rebounds. Since then, the talented senior has had some big games (28 points vs Oklahoma State), but he doesn’t need to carry the offensive load (seven points in a win at Oklahoma) to ensure a Wildcat victory.

Kansas State’s rise also coincides with the coming of age of point guard Angel Rodriguez. Not only has he cut down on turnovers and become one of the more underrated passers in college basketball, he is also becoming a viable second offensive option, averaging 11 points per contest. Another reason for their rise could be Weber’s decision to bring Thomas Gipson off the bench. Gipson averaged 6.8 PPG in the first 19 games of the season as a starter; coming in as a sub, Gipson has averaged 10.3 PPG in the last 11 games.

Everyone knew how relentless Frank Martin was with his teams defensively. Last year’s team that lost in the Third Round of the NCAAs gave up 64.1 points per game. That’s a nice, low number isn’t it? Going into last night’s game against TCU, Weber had this group giving up 62.7 points per game. To put that in perspective, K-State’s Elite Eight team in 2009-10 gave up a surprising 70.8 points per game. Is Weber doing Frank Martin better than Frank Martin? It sure looks that way.

None of this has surprised me and it shouldn’t have surprised anyone else either. With Jamar Samuels gone, the Wildcats had 10 scholarship players returning with a new head coach who had once led his team to a national championship game. Four of their five losses have come against teams currently ranked in the AP Top 10 — twice to Kansas (#4), as well as Michigan (#7) and Gonzaga (#1). They have wins over Florida and Oklahoma State but what separates them from other teams is that their best player doesn’t necessarily have to perform his best for them to win. Plus, in a season where the national title race is an open field, a veteran, defensive-oriented team like Kansas State’s chances of a Sweet Sixteen or more is likely to occur.

I tried to warn folks back in November but it hasn’t really resonated with America yet. That’s ok. I’m sure K-State prefers the life of being a sleeper anyway.

1. The fall of Baylor has been underpublicized this season. The Bears have crashed and burned this season with another influx of blue-chip talent under Scott Drew, and they’re now in major bubble trouble after losing at Texas last night. The loss drops Baylor to below .500 in the league, and it’s also the eighth loss in 11 games for this team. The resume doesn’t look anything like an NCAA Tournament team, but the collection of individual talent on the floor sure does. Pierre Jackson’s production has not dipped, and Isaiah Austin and Cory Jefferson are statistically two of the best rebounders and shot-blockers in the Big 12. But everything imaginable has gone wrong during league play this winter, and it’ll only feed the Scott Drew haters during the offseason.
2. Senior Night is always special. It’s even more special when guys like Kevin Young decide to go out with a bang and do stand-up comedy. One of his top quotes: “I had a long speech prepared. It got lost in my hair.” The actual game between Kansas and Texas Tech was a big joke itself, with the Jayhawks knocking out TTU by 37 points. It’s a good thing top high school recruit Andrew Wiggins made his visit for this particular game and got to see a stellar performance. Apparently, the fans chanted “We Want Wiggins,” which will not win awards for creativity but certainly gets the point across.
3. Senior Day will also be a little different in Manhattan tonight. After Frank Martin left for South Carolina last year, some of the senior class considered transferring. They decided to stay, and that’s why their final game at Bramlage Coliseum will mean so much more. Rodney McGruder, Martavious Irving and Jordan Henriquez are now the winningest class in Kansas State history, and they have their team in the top 10 of the national rankings and in position to possibly win a Big 12 title. You can infer that they made the right decision.
4. Iowa State is the quintessential bubble team. After an eye-opening loss to Oklahoma this weekend, Fred Hoiberg is blaming himself for the missed opportunity to impress the NCAA Tournament selection committee, but at least one writer blames the players instead. No matter who you blame, the Cyclones could be a very dangerous team if they find a way to sneak into the field. They’re very good on the boards, they’re set with a solid point guard and they have a lot of scorers and shooters. If they can’t seal the deal during the next two weeks (including the Big 12 Tournament), the NIT better watch out.
5. We’ll leave you on a Brittney Griner note. This is normally a site for the men’s game (a women’s basketball RTC might be quite the gold mine if there’s a self-starter out there), but performances like Griner’s are too good to pass up here. The Baylor star scored 50 points against Kansas State last night, and she’s now second on the all-time scoring list. Oh, and she’s a senior, and we’ve had the pleasure of watching her for multiple seasons without leaving for the pros. Sounds nice.

Less than a month ago it seemed ridiculous to mention ‘Kansas’ and ‘#1 seed’ in the same breath. They had lost three in a row for the first time in forever and dropped a game to the worst team in a power conference, falling to #14 in the AP poll on February 11. But then things started happening between then and now that needed to happen for Kansas to be in the discussion for a top seed so late in the season. Teams ahead of the Jayhawks started losing. Butler lost three times. So did Michigan State. Arizona and Syracuse each lost three games. Ohio State, Florida, Michigan, and Miami (FL) lost twice, as did Duke (although they were without Ryan Kelly in both instances). Kansas, on the other hand, is 6-0 since losing to Oklahoma on February 9. Louisville and Gonzaga are the only other teams from the top 14 in the AP poll three weeks ago that are undefeated since. And neither Louisville nor the Zags have the resume of Kansas in that stretch. The Jayhawks have beaten then #10 Kansas State at home and #14 Oklahoma State on the road — both RPI top 50 wins — as well as Iowa State on the road, a likely NCAA Tournament team with a #53 RPI ranking.

Bill Self Could Capture His 5th #1 Seed In 7 Years (Photo credit: AP Photo)

Barring two losses through the Big 10 Tournament (between three and five games), Indiana is a virtula lock for a #1 seed. Here’s what the other top teams look like, with resume boosters in bold and resume killers in italics.

Kansas

• 25-4 overall
• SOS: 13
• RPI: 4
• 9-3 in road/neutral games
• 9-3 vs the RPI top 50
• Good Wins: St. Louis (RPI #30), at Ohio State, at Oklahoma State, Kansas State (twice)
• Bad Losses: TCU
• Remaining Games: Texas Tech, at Baylor

Miami (FL)

• 23-5 overall
• SOS: 4
• RPI: 3
• 10-5 in road/neutral games
• 6-2 vs the RPI top 50
• Good Wins: at North Carolina State, North Carolina (twice), Michigan State, Duke
• Bad Losses: Wake Forest, Florida Gulf Coast, Indiana State
• Remaining Games: Georgia Tech, Clemson

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