Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

1. After last night’s buzzer beating win against No. 1 Indiana, Illinois moves back into the field. The Illini are still only 3-7 in conference play, but wins over Butler, Gonzaga, Ohio State, and Indiana are too good to ignore.
2. Since my last update, we have seen three No. 1 seeds lose. Florida lost to Arkansas, Indiana fell to Illinois, and Kansas was embarrassed by TCU. For the first time all season, Kansas moves to the No. 2 line. Florida and Indiana remain on the No. 1 line, for now. Duke is finally playing like a No. 1 seed again, so the Blue Devils are back on my top line.
3. Missouri, a team I have continued to leave as a “lock” in my bubble watch articles is no longer a lock. Losses to LSU and Texas A&M in the last week are completely unforgivable. The Tigers are now a nine seed in my bracket after being a top 10 team early in the season.

LAST FOUR IN: Saint Louis, Temple, La Salle, Illinois
FIRST FOUR OUT: Boise State, Arizona State, Wyoming, Maryland

(full bracket after the jump)

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Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. Stay Away From Number One. My best advice for teams trying to avoid losses: stay out of the No. 1 spot in the AP Poll. Every team should take the floor on a given night with that underlying objective – winning games is a generally good thing, I’d wager – which makes that logic a really interesting counterfactual. The only way to reach the top is by winning games, but if every team to inherit No. 1 dating back to January 7 (when Duke opened up the week at No. 1 for the fourth consecutive week) has gone on to surrender the ranking in the seven days that followed, it begs the question: are teams better off avoiding the coveted weekly AP crown? Of course not. That preamble was, in essence, a roundabout way to introduce you to the latest slain No. 1. On Monday, upon the AP poll’s customary afternoon release, it will be official – especially if Indiana falls at Ohio State Sunday. The Hoosiers were the main storyline from Thursday night, but they weren’t the only one.

Your Watercooler Moment. A Win Illinois Needed.

There is only one way to go about discussing Illinois’ win over No. 1 Indiana Thursday night. It is a season-defining moment. The Illini were fading fast in Big Ten play, descending into NIT territory far quicker than anyone could have imagined after an excellent nonconference season, but as we’ve seen time and again this time of year, one win can change everything. This win – which saw Illinois rip off a 13-2 run with under four minutes remaining after being down by double digits for most of the second half – changes the conversation around Illinois. It brings renewed optimism to a conference season that, up until Thursday night, had done more harm than good to the Illini’s Tournament chances. The road ahead doesn’t get any easier, and Illinois will need to improve its still-lacking 3-7 league record. But with a win of this magnitude in your back pocket, Illinois’ view on the rest of the season changes considerably. The final eight regular season games and Big Ten Tournament are no longer about hunting upset wins. The Illini got that Thursday night. From here on out, John Groce’s team needs to handle business against equal-to-inferior competition (Purdue, at Northwestern, Penn State, Nebraska, at Iowa), watch the bubble soften up around them and sit back as its solid computer figures and stable of marquee wins carry them over the finish line. Those above games aren’t guarantees – such games don’t exist in this year’s Big Ten. But Illinois is more than capable of handling all of them. Few wins will mean more on Selection Sunday than this one; Illinois is back in the discussion, at the very least, and depending on how the at-large picture shakes out over the next month, the Illini could look back to Thursday as the night they sealed their Tournament fate.

Your quick Hits…

• Wolters Goes For 53. Few mid-to-low major players in today’s college game hold as much national appeal as Wolters. Not to the casual post-Superbowl Hoops crowd; rather, he is something of a college hoops nerd’s cult fascination, for reasons understandable and not. On Thursday night, he did something memorable. Something that will stick with Wolters for the rest of his basketball-playing career. He scored a Division-I season-high 53 points. He converted nine three point shots, and 17 total field goals. He expanded the Wolters legend into a tangible and largely appreciable concept for college hoops fans previously unaware of his brilliance. Wolters is an excellent basketball player, but no one – not even the most ardent Wolters’ supporters – saw this coming.

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1. If there are people who think only Indiana and Michigan — and perhaps Michigan State — have a shot at winning the Big Ten title, there are some in Wisconsin who may respectfully disagree. The Badgers have had a tumultuous season, struggling through parts of the non-conference and even Big Ten play, but still find themselves right in the thick of it. And though Mike Bruesewitz makes it a point not to look at the standings posted in the locker room, it’s still a vey real possibility for Bo Ryan’s group. “We feel like we still control our own destiny,” UW senior forward Jared Berggren told the Wisconsin State Journal. “I think with three losses, we’re still in position to contend for the title if we take care of business.”
2. ESPN released the season’s first edition of Bubble Watch and, as good as the conference has been this season, there are only three locks to make the NCAA Tournament at this point — Indiana, Michigan and Michigan State. It may not seem like a lot until you see that no other conference has more than two. Minnesota and Ohio State, as they should be, are listed as “should be in,” and Illinois and Wisconsin have “work left to do.” Iowa‘s not even in the mix anymore, and those Gonzaga, Butler and Ohio State games are clearly keeping the Illini afloat despite their recent struggles. We’ll break down the NCAA resumes of these Big Ten teams in the coming weeks but it’s never too early to start thinking about March.
3. In the end, Michigan vs. Ohio State came down to Aaron Craft vs. Trey Burke as the Buckeyes point guard drove nearly the length of the floor with time ticking off the clock to try and tie the game on Tuesday night. But he came up short, with Tim Hardaway Jr. blocking Craft’s last-second shot attempt away, and no foul was called. Should there have been one? Said ESPN analyst Dick Vitale, who was calling the game in Ann Arbor: “You’ve gotta call that. I think you have to blow the whistle there.” Feel free to take another look here and let us know what you think about the important no-call that allowed Michigan to escape at home and remain the probable front-runners in the conference.
4. And even though Ohio State didn’t get a foul out of that play — or a win out of that game — Columbus Dispatch columnist Bob Hunter says the Buckeyes made important progress as a team. They were able to find scoring from other options other than Deshaun Thomas throughout, led most of the game, and kept up with Michigan‘s frantic offense. Don’t pay attention to the scorer, or the additional game in the loss column in the standings, Hunter says. This team is clearly getting better. (And ESPN‘s Jason King agrees.) Do you agree?
5. In case we didn’t already know, Big Ten basketball is a quality product this year. The Big Ten Network is reporting that this past January marked the network’s highest-rated month ever in prime time. This is obviously thanks to the high-quality games we’ve been lucky enough to see — and we hope will continue through the end of the season — and the strong ratings for The Journey. Minnesota at Indiana on Jan. 12 was the highest-rated regular season basketball game in BTN history, and Ohio State-Illinois on Jan. 5, Minnesota at Wisconsin on Jan. 26, Michigan at Illinois on Jan. 27 and Indiana at Purdue on Jan. 30 helped the network achieve an average primetime men’s conference basketball rating of 0.87 in the network’s eight metered markets. BTN trailed only ESPN in its eight metered markets among all national sports networks in January.

1. There  are a few points each season at which it seems like a good time to re-evaluate where things stand in the conference, both on a general and individual scale. With the Big Ten season halfway complete, the Big Ten Network‘s Brent Yarina put together his choices for all-conference honors here. Without giving too much away, let’s just say the top teams in the conference are well-represented and there aren’t too many surprises on the first team. But there are some interesting choices for individual honors that may surprise you, especially considering how we thought the Big Ten would shake out heading into the season. What would be your choices at this point?
2. Without question, Michigan has often looked this season like one of the best teams in the country. But it’s also appeared vulnerable, particularly in hostile road environments. Both of the Wolverines’ losses this season came against top teams on the road — against Ohio State, then at Indiana this weekend — and the Detroit Free Press‘ Drew Sharp believes Michigan can learn a bit from this most recent loss. Sharp writes that the Wolverines have failed in two huge spotlight opportunities, but can come away with some valuable lessons. He also makes the point that they may have no choice but to do so, with the difficult stretch they have coming up.
3. When Illinois jumped out to a 12-0 record, it no doubt surprised just about every college basketball fan, at least to a certain extent. And while it was reasonable to expect that the Illini would stumble at least somewhat once they hit Big Ten play, they had compounded some signature wins that many figured meant Illinois was more for real than we expected them to be. But, as Herb Gould writes for the Chicago Sun-Times, this is hardly that same team anymore. The Illini can’t win on the road nor can they win at home, and suddenly those quality wins against Gonzaga and Butler may be the only thing keeping them afloat in their quest for an NCAA Tournament bid.
4. Purdue has fallen on some hard times, especially earlier this season, but could things be slipping even further now? It had looked for a brief stretch in mid-January that the Boilermakers were starting to get things together and click a little bit, but their last two games have taken them a few steps backward. Jeff Washburn notes in his blog that after Indiana and Northwestern combined to score 172 points in Purdue’a last two games, even Tuesday’s trip to lowly Penn State could be a challenge. And beyond that, there are plenty more games against the conference’s heavyweights on the docket to worry about.
5. Considering how Minnesota began the season, it’s hard to imagine that back-to-back wins would be something of an accomplishment, but at this point it does mean something. The Gophers had been sliding a bit in the conference and, though their two straight wins helps keep them afloat in the Big Ten race, they still have some things to sort out. Andre Hollins called the team’s performance against Iowa this weekend “stagnant,” and Amelia Rayno points out that the kinds of mistakes that nearly cost them the game against Iowa will not fly against teams like Michigan State, who the Gophers draw this week.

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Wednesday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

1. Saint Louis‘ big victory over Butler Thursday night pushed the Billikens into the field and moved Butler — once a No. 3 seed — down to a No. 5 seed. It should be noted that the Atlantic 10’s big dogs, Butler and VCU, have struggled lately and that is probably going to end up hurting the conference as a whole on Selection Sunday.
2. At 2-6 in conference play, Illinois is now out of the field for the first time all season. Remember, this team was once 12-0 and 13-2 overall. Now it is just 15-7.  But don’t fret, Illini fans. Just last season Connecticut made the field with a sub- .500 conference record and a lot of teams have done it historically. Here’s the scary part: Only two were four games under .500 in conference.
3. This weekend’s Michigan-Indiana game probably will not help much with clarification of the No. 1 seeds. If the Wolverines win, it strengthens their margin for error the rest of the season. I am probably in the minority on this, but I feel like the No. 1 seeds are finally clear for the first time all season. With Duke struggling without Ryan Kelly, Michigan, Kansas, Florida, and Indiana are the four most worthy teams right now.

LAST FOUR IN: Saint Louis, Villanova, Indiana State, La Salle
FIRST FOUR OUT: Illinois, Wyoming, Boise State, Florida State

(full bracket after the jump)

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Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. Top 10 Teams Hit The Road. Two top 10 teams hit the road Thursday night with disconcerting challenges on tap. One team, playing and succeeding beyond expectations in its first year in a new league, ran into a defensive death trap it couldn’t overcome. The other did what its been doing all season – what has caused many to doubt its merits as a real national or (even conference) favorite. If you haven’t figured it out by now, the first team is Butler. The second is Arizona. On a night packed with boring match-ups, the above two – Butler at Saint Louis and Arizona at Washington – stood out. The Big Ten also gave us something to talk about, even if the end result fell in line with the most basic team assumptions about the nation’s best conference. Thursday was a little light on intrigue, but don’t fret, a promising weekend awaits. 

Your Watercooler Moment. Encouraging Signs From Illinois In East Lansing.

Another conference loss wont lift the spirits of Illini fans, but Illinois flashed the three-point shooting that made it one of the most dangerous teams in the country in the nonconference (Photo credit: USA Today Sports Photo).

They weren’t going to stay cold forever. We had plenty of evidence suggesting otherwise. The Illini built a reputation in the non-conference season on three-point shooting. John Groce’s team not only shot a bunch of threes, for a good two-month stretch it also sank a high percentage of those long-range shots. Illinois stormed through the Maui Invitational, picking up a blowout win over Butler in the process, then barraged Gonzaga in the Kennel with – what else? – 11 threes and 35 points from Brandon Paul in an 11-point win. At the time, Illini fans were rightfully thrilled about their newfound offensive explosion and about Groce’s ability to unlock the upper reaches of his team’s offensive parts in just his first year on campus. Illinois was winning, times were good in Champaign, but all the while the Illini’s hot start was taken with a token of skepticism. Devoting so many possessions and shot attempts to three-pointers is fraught with risk, and once the conference season arrived, Illinois was swiftly introduced to the repercussions of that strategy by losing five of its first seven Big Ten games. Entering Thursday night, the Illini had posted the Big Ten’s worst three-point field goal percentage in conference play (24.5%). A little bit of three-point fall-off was a realistic expectation, what with all the rigorous defenses throughout the Big Ten. But 24 percent? The worst mark in the conference? Something had to give.

The Illini lost their sixth conference game at Michigan State Thursday night, but unlike most of its other league losses – the majority of which were downright ugly – Illinois had a brief re-encounter with its nationally-relevant self of 2012.  The Illini stroked five three-pointers in the first half and committed just one turnover to stake a 10-point lead at the break, kept it close throughout the second half thanks in part to Tracy Abrams’ three-point shooting, and hung around long enough to very nearly spring one of the most surprising upsets of any team in any league. Keith Appling’s season breakout – 24 points, eight rebounds, seven assists – stemmed the tide in the waning moments, and the Spartans, a legitimate Big Ten contender, held on at home. Taken together, despite leaving the Breslin Center with another conference L, John Groce and his staff can’t walk away with any real complaints. To the absolute contrary, he should be measurably encouraged. A hot-shooting Illini team is a dangerous one. The Illini may never recapture their lights-out form of November and December, but anything close would be good enough to turn around the Illini’s thus-far ugly league season.

Also Worth Chatting About. For Arizona, Winning Isn’t Enough.

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Bennet Hayes is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @HoopsTraveler on Twitter. Night Line runs on weeknights during the season, highlighting a major storyline development from that day’s games.

In many ways, keep moving along — there is not a whole lot to see here. February is beginning, the Michigan State Spartans are near the top of the Big Ten, and March expectations are high in East Lansing. Per usual, Tom Izzo’s crew has arrived at its current position with little pomp or flair, again embracing a gritty, determined approach that has come to define the Green and White. Perhaps the familiarity of the exercise is why the Spartans have largely flown under the radar this season, a lack of attention surely aided by playing in a conference loaded with Top 25 teams. Either way, it’s taken more than Tom Izzo and the Michigan State brand to answer all those questions that surrounded Sparty back in November, and if you are looking for reasons why this has become yet another vintage Izzo team, the continued development of a pair of juniors would be a good place to start.

Juniors Keith Appling and Adreian Payne Have Been Major Catalysts For The Continued Spartan Success

Back in November, if you asked Tom Izzo which of his players needed to be great for his team to meet or exceed expectations, it would have taken him all of 0.2 seconds to tell you that player was Keith Appling. The former McDonald’s All-American had a nice sophomore season a year ago, but with senior leader Draymond Green’s eligibility expiring, the onus fell on the normally reserved Appling to take the reins of this group of Spartans. And while his statistical profile suggests that Appling is producing at a similar rate to a year ago, the junior has done exactly what Izzo needed him to do – take control of this team. Appling did it all the way back in November, when he took over a close game late to help hand Kansas what is still their only loss of the year. He did it again this evening, coming up with all the key plays down the stretch, the most emphatic of which occurred when he split a double-team then delivered a perfect lob to teammate Branden Dawson for a resounding dunk. But more importantly, in between that victory over KU and the defeat of the Illini tonight, there has been little doubt as to who is running this Michigan State team – an important answer to a question that lingered all summer in East Lansing.

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1. CBSSports.com‘s Jeff Goodman had an especially busy Sunday, watching Michigan State–Indiana in Bloomington before driving to Champaign to catch Michigan–Illinois. He got to see arguably the Big Ten’s top three teams live in a matter of hours, and here’s what he came away with: Michigan is #1 for the first time since 1992, and deservedly so; while Indiana, which was ranked in that top spot at the beginning of the season, is not playing to its full potential because its star, Cody Zeller, is not asserting himself. After watching both games Sunday — Zeller was a no-show for most of the Hoosiers’ close win against the Spartans, and the Wolverines handled sputtering Illinois at Assembly Hall — it’s hard to argue with either point.
2. Just as soon as Minnesota‘s Trevor Mbakwe was working his way back to full health, the Gophers forward has been bothered by a right wrist injury in recent games against Northwestern and Wisconsin. But ESPN.com‘s Andy Katz said that the Minnesota staff expects Mbakwe to be available for tonight’s game against Nebraska. The Gophers, who have lost four in a row (three of which were on the road), need Mbakwe now more than ever. Four of their next five contests are at home.
3. For years, Wisconsin has been associated with slow, grind-it-out basketball and low-scoring games. But, as Jim Polzin writes for the Wisconsin State Journal, the Badgers haven’t been winning many games this season by playing that way. Their victories against Minnesota and Nebraska marked the first occasion in the last 16 years in which the Badgers won two consecutive games without scoring 50 points. “It’s how this team has to win right now,” associate head coach Greg Gard said Sunday. It’s hard to believe, given some of the performances, but the Badgers remain right in the thick of things for a Big Ten title.
4. For most of the early season, Minnesota was one of the biggest surprises of the season, looking much like a Big Ten title contender and possibly even a Final Four team. But then the Big Ten schedule hit, and the Gophers have been free-falling ever since. Marcus Fuller of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writes that Minnesota needs Rodney Williams to regain his previous form as soon as possible if the Gophers stand any chance of picking themselves up off the mat. According to Fuller’s story, Williams was leading the team with 13.0 PPG and 6.0 RPG while shooting 56 percent from the field and 69 percent from the line during non-conference play. But since Big Ten play started, he’s the team’s fifth-leading scorer at 9.0 PPG, while shooting 37 percent from the field and 57 percent from the foul line.
5. If you tuned in to Indiana’s win Sunday against Michigan State, you likely heard the “Gary sucks!” taunts targeted at Michigan State freshman Gary Harris — unless they were targeting Branden Dawson, who hails from Gary, Indiana, but I seriously doubt that — and saw the way Harris responded. Battling through a bit of a freshman slump the last few games, Harris nearly helped the Spartans pull the upset by knocking down five three-pointers and totaling 21 points. This led the Lansing State Journal‘s Graham Couch to wonder whether taunting opposing players can only come back to bite home fans. It has certainly fueled the likes of Jalen Rose and Dawson over the years, and Tom Izzo chimed in with a story of his own.

This is the 11th installment of our weekly Big Ten Power Rankings which we will publish each Friday. This week’s voters were Deepak Jayanti, Joey Nowak and Kevin Trahan of the Big Ten Microsite.

In this week’s Big Ten power rankings we discuss each team’s week and consider which player each team cannot do without.

1. Michigan — This time, can the Wolverines seize the day and slide into the nation’s No. 1 spot? It’s theirs for the taking after Duke was blown out at Miami this week, and the Wolverines took care of their first order of business by disposing of pesky Purdue at home on Thursday. A trip to Champaign on Sunday will not be quite as easy, but this team has the tools to make it happen and is certainly deserving of the No. 1 spot in our conference rankings, if not the national polls. Most Valuable Player: It’s hard to choose anybody but Trey Burke, who has to be the front-runner for Big Ten Player of the Year, and in the conversation for the National Player of the Year. He can score at will when the Wolverines need him to, but his game this year has been about making other players better. And it’s working. 
   

   Trey Burke and Michigan have the nation’s top-seed within its grasp (annarbor.com)

2. Indiana — The Hoosiers’ upcoming meeting against Michigan State has gone from a likely opportunity for them to flex their muscles against a perennial conference title contender to almost a bit of a toss-up. The Spartans will be rolling into Bloomington as the hottest team in the conference, and the Hoosiers have already proven to be vulnerable on their home floor. But Tom Izzo knows what he’s talking about when he calls the Hoosiers the Big Ten’s most complete team. That’s why they hold onto this spot. For now. Most Valuable Player: Last year’s national championship Kentucky team was laden with underclassmen talent, but it was an elder statesman in Terrence Jones who set the bar for the Wildcats. The case is the same for Christian Watford and Indiana this season. With due respect to some of the great young players the Hoosiers have, as Watford goes, Indiana goes.
3. Michigan State — After four straight against some of the weakest teams in the conference, the Spartans have entered the lions’ den and are so far unscathed. They answered the bell in a must-win of sorts against Ohio State and scratched out their second straight win in Madison to notch their sixth straight Big Ten win after dropping their conference opener. They’ve not been the most impressive team to watch, but you can’t argue with the results. Most Valuable Player: Very few would argue he’s the team’s best player per se, but you could make a case that Travis Trice is one guy this team cannot do without. Especially since the transfer of Brandan Kearney, backcourt minutes have been at a premium for the Spartans and Trice is a soothing presence at the point guard spot that makes everyone else better and allows Keith Appling to focus on scoring. And with Russell Byrd still a no-show, Trice’s 42 percent three-point shooting is essential. Read the rest of this entry »

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @TheMulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

While this weekend’s slate of games doesn’t quite match last weekend’s, there are several conference match-ups that are vitally important in the Big Ten, ACC, and Mountain West. The theme of the weekend is “must win”. The action should be great, so don’t sleep on these games. Let’s get to the breakdowns!

#5 Louisville at Georgetown – 12:00 PM EST, Saturday on ESPN (****)

• Louisville is trying to avoid a three-game losing streak, as they head on the road to Georgetown. Another loss by the Cardinals and Rick Pitino may have to do some reevaluating or reshuffling. For Georgetown, a fourth loss in the Big East this early would certainly put them on the verge of irrelevance. This game is the first of three straight home games for the Hoyas before heading on the road to Rutgers. If they can string together some wins prior to their match-up against Marquette next month, the Hoyas can keep themselves in the thick of the Big East race. In Louisville’s two losses to Syracuse and Villanova, they have struggled against the length of both teams. They simply could not get good shots over the taller players from the Syracuse and Nova. They shot 46.6% eFG and 44.8% eFG against those two teams. Georgetown is another long team. In order for Louisville to avoid a three-game skid, they must figure out a way to hit shots. Creating turnovers without capitalizing on them will not get it done on the road. The Hoyas on the other hand still need to protect the ball and play at their pace. If they are turning the ball over, which they have been doing in conference play, and the pace speeds up, it will be a big problem for John Thompson III‘s squad.
  

  Can Russ Smith Get Louisville Back On Track? (Credit: Getty Images)

#10 Minnesota at Wisconsin – 2:00 PM EST, Saturday on BTN (****)

• Minnesota has lost three straight games while Wisconsin has lost two straight. Because the Big Ten is so tough this year, it’s too early to say that either team would be out of the race with another loss. However, it will make things much more difficult. The Gophers are struggling on defense in conference play and when they get aggressive, they are fouling. They are also turning the ball over at a rate of 24%. This isn’t the same team we saw in non-conference play. They have put themselves in a must win situation very early in Big Ten play. Similarly, Wisconsin is struggling after their big win against Indiana. They need to continue to play at their pace. If Minnesota can speed this game up with its great athletes, Wisconsin will have a tough time competing. Play close attention to Jared Berggren on the glass. He has to have a monster rebounding game in order for the Badgers to win. If Wisconsin can find a way to get to the line, they can make it four losses in a row for the Gophers.

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