There were some near-upsets on the road as two of the better teams in the conference narrowly escaped with wins, while most of the other match-ups were good old-fashioned beatdowns. The bulk of the ACC remains as muddled as ever while Miami continues to assert its dominance and separate from the rest of the so-called conference contenders. Does that mean we learned something new this weekend? We just might have. Here are six thoughts from the weekend’s action…

Duke Found Itself in Quite the Scrum at BC Sunday Night

1. Duke Is A Bad Road Team. The Blue Devils’ best win in a true road game was a 19-point rout of Florida State (a team that’s 5-5 in the ACC). What was the second best road win for Duke? It might have been yesterday’s one-point victory over Boston College, the second worst team in the conference with a 2-8 record. That’s not a good sign. While Duke is now technically a winning team in hostile environments (3-2), the total point margin (usually a better predictor of future performance), is -10. Now, it’s been a tough year on the road for everyone in this league and five games isn’t a lot of data to draw from, but it bears mentioning that Duke has yet to show much of anything positive in this environment.
2. Lorenzo Brown Is Everything For North Carolina State. Before last night, Brown had played 10 minutes total in the past three games for the Wolfpack due to an injury, and not coincidentally all three of those games were losses. Yesterday, Brown returned to help the Wolfpack stop the skid against Clemson. Brown isn’t the best player on his team, but he is certainly the most indispensable. The electric player has probably been the best true point guard in the conference this season even though his play has slipped from the high-water mark he set last year. If Brown can return to form and his team can learn to play a little better defense, NC State will be a factor in the conference race again. Now, though? NC State is in a three-way tie with Maryland and Florida State for fifth place, a somewhat shocking position for the preseason favorite in this league. Read the rest of this entry »

Sorry, Indiana, but you’re the new #1 team. It is not very often that a team can lose a game during the week and actually move up to the #1 spot, but that’s what happened after Florida was dismantled at Arkansas and the #3 and #4 teams both lost too. Many will clamor that Duke should be the top team, and perhaps they should be with just two losses on its record, but the Blue Devils team that squeaked out a win against Boston College on Sunday certainly didn’t look like #1 material. The big story of the week was rather the rise of another ACC team, the Miami Hurricanes; the ‘Canes beat up on North Carolina to move to a perfect 10-0 in conference play. It must be the first time in history that an ACC team has defeated Duke and North Carolina by a combined 50+ points (56, to be exact), in less than a month’s span, right? Overshadowed by all of the movement in the Top 10 are four new teams entering the RTC25. With its thrilling overtime win over Michigan, Wisconsin is up to #19, while Colorado State makes an appearance for the first time this season. Lastly, there must be an obligatory mention of the luck of the Irish as Notre Dame somehow beat Louisville in five overtimes — so there you go, Notre Dame, welcome back to the RTC25.

The Quick n’ Dirty after the jump…

Quick n’ Dirty Analysis.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Raleigh News & Observer: Andrew Carter’s midseason look at the ACC is a good read, although one phrase stuck out when he described Mason Plumlee. Carter justified Plumlee as the conference player of the year (a reasonable choice) by saying: “Plumlee is the most important player on the conference’s best team.” We’re halfway through the season, Miami owns a dramatic win over the Blue Devils and won (in a great game) at the school responsible for Duke’s other loss. It’s high time Miami was considered the conference’s best team. Plumlee may be the ACC Player of the Year (he’s arguably more important to Duke’s success than any one player on the Hurricanes), and I think Duke has a slight edge at home. But that doesn’t undermine Miami’s success. The Hurricanes are the best team until proven otherwise.
2. Tar Heel Blog: Speaking of Duke, a bit of controversy popped up around the Cameron Crazies when they allegedly chanted “How’s your grandma?” at NC State’s Tyler Lewis last week (whose grandmother died recently). If the chant happened, it was obviously boorish, unnecessary and cruel. I’m not going to pile on the Cameron Crazies, but I’m not going to defend them either. The Crazies get a lot of polarized publicity from the media, but like most stories the truth isn’t so black and white. The Crazies are passionate fans that make Cameron Indoor Stadium one of the best atmospheres in the country. They’re also college students. They make the same stupid mistakes other student sections around the country do. Theirs are often more visible, as they get more coverage than the average student section, and I’m not sure there’s any more story here.
3. Hampton Roads Daily Press: A little less than two years ago, arguing the prognosis of Virginia and Virginia Tech hoops teams would’ve been an interesting discussion (and Virginia Commonwealth would be irrelevant). Now, the discussion is hugely one-sided (and the Rams are anything but irrelevant), but the difference is more subtle than it looks. The Hokies lost two major talents, Montrezl Harrell and Dorian Finney-Smith, each of whom would have added a lot of talent and depth to this year’s team. That still wouldn’t make up the difference between the two teams this season, but it’s amazing how much can change in a short period of time.
4. Baltimore Sun: Alex Len is one of the country’s most improved players this year, but he still lacks the consistency required to be a top-flight performer. Last year, only his athleticism and upside impressed. This season his flashes of brilliance consist of longer stretches, but he won’t finish first team all-ACC nor will he live up to his All-American tools. The biggest issue for Len appears to be physicality. He’s much stronger than last season, but teams have found that they can pop him in the mouth and aggressively force him out of position. If he comes back next season, it’s possible that he’d become one of the top players in the country; it’s also likely that he’d expose his fatal flaw and cost himself a large sum of money come NBA Draft day.
5. Tallahassee Democrat: It’s weird to read this article. Leonard Hamilton‘s team — the squad led by arguably the most competitive player I’ve ever seen live — lacks effort. Sure it would help if this team had more bangers in the paint and a little more experience running the show, but that’s not this year’s problem. This team, on paper, may be more talented than last year’s ACC championship squad. Those Seminoles were the best of the Hamilton era: effort, experience and toughness defined. This year’s squad doesn’t make you cringe quite as much as Hamilton’s teams of yore (other than their turnovers), but the intensity just isn’t there enough of the time.

Who Won the Week? is a regular column that will outline and discuss three winners and losers from the previous week. The author of this column is Kenny Ocker (@KennyOcker), an Oregon-based sportswriter best known for his willingness to drive (or bike!) anywhere to watch a basketball game.

WINNER: TCU

The Horned Frogs started out their Big 12 tenure on a bad note, going 0-8 in conference and losing only one of those games by fewer than 10 points. And then #2 Kansas came to town. Recipe for disaster, right? It was, just not for the team you would expect. The Horned Frogs pounced on the Jayhawks early, holding them to two points in the first 13:39 of the game. But TCU was able to hold up for the rest of the game, never letting Kansas lead and nabbing a 62-55 victory. Never mind that TCU lost by 17 against a Texas team with two conference wins on Saturday; the Horned Frogs nabbed one of the biggest regular-season upsets ever.

TCU’s upset over Kansas was one of the biggest shockers in recent memory (Star-Telegram/Rodger Mallison)

(Related winners: Other teams bidding for a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament; Kansas fans who are wary of being a No. 1 seed. Related losers: Kansas – see below.)

LOSER: Kansas

Thanks to getting shelled by a team Ken Pomeroy said had a 3 percent chance of winning a few days after losing a fast-paced shootout against Oklahoma State, the Jayhawks have their first losing streak since January 2006. Kansas got torn up by the perimeter scoring of the Cowboys, whose guards Markel Brown and Marcus Smart had 28 and 25 points respectively. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks shot a tick above 40 percent from the field, eventually falling 85-80 at home. But Kansas doubled down on its offensive woes in Fort Worth, shooting under 30 percent against TCU. Primary ballhandlers Elijah Johnson and Naadir Tharpe combined to go 5-of-27 from the floor Wednesday with three assists and five turnovers. (Against the Cowboys, the pair combined to go 6 of 21 from the field with 10 assists and five turnovers.) It looks like the Jayhawks need to find someone capable of playing consistently at point guard, lest their otherwise-championship-caliber team go to waste in a year with no dominant team.  Read the rest of this entry »

David Cassilo is an RTC columnist who also writes about college basketball for SLAM magazine. You can follow him at @dcassilo.

After weeks and weeks of coming close, Trey Burke has finally broken through and grabbed the #1 spot. It’s a long time coming, as Burke embodies everything you want in a player. He’s a scorer that can take over the game. He’s an unselfish player that likes to get his teammates involved. He’s a leader, who steps up in big moments and keeps his team focused. Look no further than his block of Aaron Craft’s potential game-tying shot on Tuesday as to why there’s nobody like him in the country. Michigan is in good hands come March.

PLAYER OF THE YEAR

10. Victor Oladipo – Indiana (Last Week – NR)
2012-13 stats: 13.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 2.3 SPG

The Hoosiers can beat any team on any given day, if Victor Oladipo has a good game.

I’ll reluctantly include Oladipo, partly because there’s no one better and partly because you almost have to at this point. I don’t blame him, but the hype surrounding him has really surprised me. I just don’t see why people say he’s better than some one like Otto Porter Jr., who puts up equal if not better stats, when Oladipo has Zeller down low and Porter Jr. lost his second-best player to suspension. This week: February 10 at Ohio State, February 13 vs. Nebraska

9. Nate Wolters – South Dakota State (Last week – NR)
2012-13 stats: 22.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 5.5 APG

I don’t care what conference he’s in and how good his team is, Wolters is without question one of the 10 best players in the country. In case you missed it, he scored 53 points against IPFW on Thursday night. And as his numbers above show, he’s well-rounded too. This week: February 9 at Oakland, February 14 vs. IUPUI

8. Otto Porter Jr. – Georgetown (Last Week – 6)
2012-13 stats: 14.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG

Porter Jr. played just once this week and had 11 points and seven rebounds in a win over St. John’s. He’s shot at least 50 percent from the field in five of his last six games. This week: February 9 at Rutgers, February 11 vs. Marquette

7. Ben McLemore – Kansas (Last week – 7)
2012-13 stats: 16.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG

It was a rough week for Kansas, but McLemore was only partially to blame. He had 23 points, his second-most in Big 12 play, in the loss to Oklahoma State, so he can be absolved for the game. Against TCU, though, his 0-for-6 3-point shooting was part of a dreadful night for the Jayhawks. This week: February 9 vs. Oklahoma, February 11 vs. Kansas State Read the rest of this entry »

1. Yahoo! Sports: In honor of his 50th birthday, Darren Rovell uncovered a letter from Mike Krzyzewski to Michael Jordan from 1980. I’m not sure when Coach K said “you should make an immediate impact on whatever you choose,” he suspected Jordan would go on to be the best player to play the game. It also brings back memories of Jeff Eisenberg’s article a year ago on Jordan’s Letter of Intent and a personal letter from Dean Smith (which sounds very confident despite being a month before Krzyzewski’s letter was written). Always cool to see these things.
   

   Coach K concedes defeat in the recruitment of Michael Jordan. (h/t: Darren Rovell)

2. Blogger So Dear: John Mundy has put up two of the most interesting articles of the season. The first talked about the difficulties of changing culture. This one is a thought-provoking discussion of Wake Forest‘s struggles with ACC expansion looming. The Demon Deacons don’t dominate any area of North Carolina, not even their home city of Winston-Salem. They have to make their own success, and apathy awaits them if that success doesn’t live up to the hype. Wake Forest could be buried by the incoming powers in the ACC. The school needs another coach like Skip Prosser. A showman in the highest regard, who can make it the biggest show in town again. Instead they have Jeff Bzdelik, the man with the worst public relation skills in the league. It doesn’t matter that the school is improving. They need a show.
3. Wall Street Journal: Miami may be the newest ACC school in the top-ten, but the Hurricanes still aren’t hard to go see if you happen to be near Coral Gables. Ben Cohen looked at the price of tickets for the schools in the top-ten for college basketball over the last five games. The ACC bookended the list: the cheapest tickets to Miami totaled a ludicrous 78 dollars (that’s less than $16 a game); Duke totaled 1,014 dollars (over $200 a ticket).
4. Wilmington Star News: The Bob Cousy Award for college’s top point guard released its 12 finalists and two ACC guards made the cut. Lorenzo Brown and Shane Larkin both represented the conference, though beating out Trey Burke is probably too much to ask. Miami would have to make a run to a one-seed with Larkin beefing up his assist numbers. I do think Larkin could make the final five for the award, but it’s Burke’s to lose. North Carolina dominated the award of late with Ty Lawson and Kendall Marshall both winning (Greivis Vasquez also won the award in between the two).
5. Streaking the Lawn: Here’s a great look at the RPI over the last five years in terms of ACC teams being selected for the Big Dance. It points to the RPI as being more important than the NCAA lets on. For one, no team with a higher RPI has been selected over a team with a lower ranking. The ACC Tournament may hold the key for Virginia. It should reduce the importance of its games against Old Dominion by adding more solid opponents. The Cavaliers cannot afford to lose on Thursday to mediocre team. This is illustrated by the fact that their RPI after going 8-2 in their remaining ten games, Virginia is projected to have an RPI of 67. That’s not good.

Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. Stay Away From Number One. My best advice for teams trying to avoid losses: stay out of the No. 1 spot in the AP Poll. Every team should take the floor on a given night with that underlying objective – winning games is a generally good thing, I’d wager – which makes that logic a really interesting counterfactual. The only way to reach the top is by winning games, but if every team to inherit No. 1 dating back to January 7 (when Duke opened up the week at No. 1 for the fourth consecutive week) has gone on to surrender the ranking in the seven days that followed, it begs the question: are teams better off avoiding the coveted weekly AP crown? Of course not. That preamble was, in essence, a roundabout way to introduce you to the latest slain No. 1. On Monday, upon the AP poll’s customary afternoon release, it will be official – especially if Indiana falls at Ohio State Sunday. The Hoosiers were the main storyline from Thursday night, but they weren’t the only one.

Your Watercooler Moment. A Win Illinois Needed.

There is only one way to go about discussing Illinois’ win over No. 1 Indiana Thursday night. It is a season-defining moment. The Illini were fading fast in Big Ten play, descending into NIT territory far quicker than anyone could have imagined after an excellent nonconference season, but as we’ve seen time and again this time of year, one win can change everything. This win – which saw Illinois rip off a 13-2 run with under four minutes remaining after being down by double digits for most of the second half – changes the conversation around Illinois. It brings renewed optimism to a conference season that, up until Thursday night, had done more harm than good to the Illini’s Tournament chances. The road ahead doesn’t get any easier, and Illinois will need to improve its still-lacking 3-7 league record. But with a win of this magnitude in your back pocket, Illinois’ view on the rest of the season changes considerably. The final eight regular season games and Big Ten Tournament are no longer about hunting upset wins. The Illini got that Thursday night. From here on out, John Groce’s team needs to handle business against equal-to-inferior competition (Purdue, at Northwestern, Penn State, Nebraska, at Iowa), watch the bubble soften up around them and sit back as its solid computer figures and stable of marquee wins carry them over the finish line. Those above games aren’t guarantees – such games don’t exist in this year’s Big Ten. But Illinois is more than capable of handling all of them. Few wins will mean more on Selection Sunday than this one; Illinois is back in the discussion, at the very least, and depending on how the at-large picture shakes out over the next month, the Illini could look back to Thursday as the night they sealed their Tournament fate.

Your quick Hits…

• Wolters Goes For 53. Few mid-to-low major players in today’s college game hold as much national appeal as Wolters. Not to the casual post-Superbowl Hoops crowd; rather, he is something of a college hoops nerd’s cult fascination, for reasons understandable and not. On Thursday night, he did something memorable. Something that will stick with Wolters for the rest of his basketball-playing career. He scored a Division-I season-high 53 points. He converted nine three point shots, and 17 total field goals. He expanded the Wolters legend into a tangible and largely appreciable concept for college hoops fans previously unaware of his brilliance. Wolters is an excellent basketball player, but no one – not even the most ardent Wolters’ supporters – saw this coming.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Raleigh News & Observer: Huge ACC media news out of Raleigh as Caulton Tudor announced his retirement after over four decades of work with the News & Observer. For those keeping score at home–as any good sports fan should–that’s over 6,000 columns, 40 conference tournaments and 24 Final Fours for good measure. I didn’t always agree with Tudor (notably after he put the entire North Carolina team on his first-team All-ACC last season), but you always knew what you were getting. Luke DeCock, the other primary sports columnist on staff, had many more anecdotes to share.
2. CBSSports.com: So the NCAA may be caught in a lie. After Mark Emmert’s self-deprecating presser claiming the NCAA found out about the improper use of Nevin Shapiro’s lawyer when his bill showed up on their doorstep, Dennis Dodd caught onto something different. NCAA vice-president (of enforcement) Jule Lach approved at least $20,000 to pay Shapiro’s lawyer. This isn’t good for the NCAA and doesn’t bode well for Elena Perez, Shapiro’s lawyer, either. It is good for Miami, where Al Golden took to the signing day pulpit to proclaim his program has paid enough for its sins. Smart move, considering it looks like at best the NCAA will have to throw out much of its case against the Hurricanes.
3. Run the Floor: This article points out several interesting facts about the ACC and college basketball as a whole. First, as I sort of suspected, the ACC is really young (significantly younger than any other major conferences). As an aside, the Mountain West is by far the most experienced league. Which helps explain why the league is outperforming its normal expectations and is competitive top to bottom. In the ACC, Miami and Duke lead both the conference standings and the percentage of minutes played by seniors. It’s no coincidence: barring unbelievable talent (see: Michigan this year or Kentucky last year), experience is extraordinarily valuable in college basketball. Between coming experience and the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh, the ACC should be back atop the conference power struggle next season.
4. Charlotte Observer: Speaking of the Blue Devils, what is their plan for the game against NC State? Play better. Specifically, stop the Wolfpack in transition and defend Richard Howell and CJ Leslie. It’s funny, reading Duke talk about these goals reads more like a review of its game against Miami instead of NC State. It’s true the Wolfpack outscored Duke in transition and dominated the frontcourt battle. But that was also the team’s first game without Ryan Kelly–in an incredibly hostile environment. That’s not the game Duke wants revenge for. The Blue Devils want revenge for the game that made everyone question its place as a national title contender. That was the game at Coral Gables.
5. CBS Atlanta: How about an ACC Player Power Rankings for dessert? Interestingly, no NC State players make the cut. Right now my power rankings would probably look similar (Michael Snaer, Shane Larkin, Erick Green, Kenny Kadji and Mason Plumlee). How can you go against buzzer beaters ad winning? But All-ACC will be a very interesting discussion should prove a very interesting discussion this season.

With Groundhog Day and, oh yeah, the Super Bowl now behind us, the next couple of months belong to college basketball. Our RTC Podcast host Shane Connolly (@sconnolly114) is back to lead us down a primrose path of hoops enlightenment, including a discussion of the two biggest games of last weekend, examine some of the teams among the best in the country we can’t quite get a good read on yet, and riff on underrated names that should be getting more publicity this season. All this and more (outlined below) in this week’s podcast.

Check back on Friday of this week for our shorter RTC Podblast, which will run down some of the action from this week and look ahead to the weekend’s biggest games. And don’t forget to add the RTC Podcast to your iTunes lineup so that you’ll automatically upload it on your listening device after each recording. Thanks!

• 0:00-8:32 – Oklahoma State vs. Kansas
• 8:32-20:21 – Indiana vs. Michigan
• 20:21-27:07 – Florida, Syracuse and Duke – just how good are they?
• 27:07-30:21 – When does bubble talk start to mean something?
• 30:21-35:09 – Underrated stars
• 35:09-37:54 – Where does Kansas State belong in the rankings?
• 37:54-41:47 – How far does Oregon drop after 2 bad losses?
• 41:47-47:51 – Mid-week previews & Wrap

We welcome any and all feedback on these podcasts including topics for future discussion or if you want to send us any questions for our “May Not Be From Actual Listeners” segment. Hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com or @rushthecourt on Twitter.

With nearly half of the ACC docket gone and Miami continuing to cement its hold on an undefeated league record, now is as good a time as any to continue with the bracket talk.

Miami has an outside shot of getting a #1 seed. Who would have expected that after losing to Florida Gulf Coast? (Asheboro Courier-Tribune)

Definitely IN

Duke (19-2, 6-2):  While Duke is not first in the ACC (and has a 27-point defeat to the team currently leading the conference), the Blue Devils would almost assuredly receive the highest seed of any team in the ACC if the season ended today. (A similar margin of defeat for North Carolina last year against a team from Florida did not cost them a #1 seed).  Wins against Louisville, Minnesota, VCU, and Kentucky have definitely lost some of their luster in recent weeks, but Duke is still #1 in the RPI rankings and is now ranked #4 in the national polls. The Blue Devils put together by far their best performance post-Ryan Kelly in their resounding defeat of Florida State over the weekend. While Kelly’s return is still uncertain, talk is that he could return to action around the end of February. Duke gets its first revenge game on Thursday at home against NC State, and a win there against a snake-bitten NC State team would do wonders to increase Duke’s legitimacy without Kelly playing. Duke will obviously hope to have him back at 100% soon, because potentially huge games loom in Duke’s final four conference games (@Virginia, Miami, Virginia Tech, @UNC). At the moment, Duke would probably be the third or fourth #1 seed, and could possibly gain the overall #1 seed by running the table, or could fall to a #2 seed if they drop two or three more games in league play depending on what happens in the Big Ten, with middling scenarios (one or two additional conference losses and an ACC Tournament championship) likely keeping them about where they are now.

• Seed projection:  #1 (now), could fall to a #2
• Best wins:  Louisville (neutral), Ohio State, VCU, Kentucky (neutral), Minnesota (neutral)
• Worst losses: @Miami (just by the sheer margin)

Miami (17-3, 8-0):  The Hurricanes may be the hottest team in America right now, having won nine games in a row. Their victory on Reggie Johnson’s last second tip-in in Raleigh on Saturday made Miami the heavy favorite to win the ACC’s regular season title, as they hold a two-game lead over the closest opposition, Duke, whom they have already defeated by 27 points. The Hurricanes are also ranked #2 in the RPI (behind only Duke), so all of the computer numbers are going to bat for them, and they have also risen into the top 10 in the AP poll. Miami’s only truly difficult conference game left is against Duke in Cameron, but aside from that, they should be favored in every game and the conference right now is clearly theirs to lose. Miami has a great case for a 2 seed right now with its RPI and resounding defeat of Duke, which could be the most impressive feather in the cap for any team this season. If they run the table in the ACC, they will get a #1 seed, and if they finish 16-2 or 17-1, their chances of a #1 seed are still pretty good, especially if they also win the ACC Tournament. The game against Duke could be a battle for top seed and would put the winner in the driver’s seat headed into the ACC Tournament.

• Read the rest of this entry »