Brian Otskey is an RTC columnist. Every Tuesday during the regular season he’ll be giving his 10 thoughts on the previous week’s action. You can find him on Twitter @botskey

1. As we hit the stretch run of the college basketball season, tight conference races begin to captivate the nation. There are terrific regular season title races going on in a bunch of conferences, including the Atlantic 10, Big 12, Pac-12 and Big Ten but the best race is happening in the Big East. In the conference’s final season as we have come to know it, three teams are tied atop the league standings at 9-3 heading into Tuesday’s action with three more nipping at their heels. It’s only fitting that two of the Big East’s heavyweight rivals, Syracuse and Georgetown, are among the group at 9-3. Joining them is an upstart Marquette team, picked seventh in the 15-team conference. Right behind the leaders is a team some seem to have forgotten about at 9-4, the Louisville Cardinals. Notre Dame at 9-5 after an important win at Pittsburgh last night and 7-5 Connecticut round out the teams within two games in the loss column. The great thing about this race is the best games are still to come. Syracuse and Georgetown hook up twice down the stretch, including on the final day of the regular season. The Orange have the toughest schedule with the aforementioned games against the Hoyas plus a trip to Marquette and a visit to the Carrier Dome from Louisville still on tap. Marquette plays four of its final six games on the road beginning this evening but gets Syracuse and Notre Dame at home where the Golden Eagles have won 23-straight games since a loss to Vanderbilt last season. Luckily for Marquette, its four road games are against a hit-and-miss Villanova team, St. John’s and two of the teams near the bottom of the league standings. It’s never easy to win on the road but Marquette has a somewhat favorable schedule. In the end, my money would be on a 13-5 logjam between Syracuse, Georgetown and Louisville with tiebreakers determining the team that gets the top seed at Madison Square Garden next month.
   

   Otto Porter and Georgetown will have a say in the Big East title race (M. Sullivan/Reuters)

2. For the final time this Saturday, ESPN’s BracketBusters event will pit non-power league teams against one another, some in major need of a resume-building win as the regular season begins to wind down. Denver against Northern Iowa and Ohio at Belmont are solid matchups but the best game by far is Creighton visiting St. Mary’s on Saturday.The Bluejays have lost five of their past nine games heading into tonight’s game with Southern Illinois, one they should win, after a 17-1 start to the season. Quality non-conference wins against Wisconsin, Arizona State and California (all away from Omaha), plus a good home win over a solid Akron club, have Creighton in a pretty good spot for a bid relative to other teams in the mix. The problem for Greg McDermott’s squad is that it hasn’t done much of anything in calendar year 2013. The good news for Creighton is the NCAA Selection Committee says wins in November and December mean just as much as February and March. As long as Creighton splits its upcoming games with St. Mary’s and Wichita State, I feel that should be good enough to merit an NCAA berth no matter what happens in the Missouri Valley Tournament. As for St. Mary’s, it is even more desperate. The only semblance of a quality win on the Gaels’ resume are wins at BYU and Santa Clara, the former coming thanks to Matthew Dellavedova’s miracle buzzer beater in Provo. To have a chance at the NCAA’s I feel St. Mary’s has to beat Creighton and run the West Coast table while making the finals of the conference tournament. There just isn’t enough meat on its resume to justify a bid despite having one of the nation’s strongest offensive attacks. Read the rest of this entry »

Exactly 26 days from now, brackets for the NCAA Tournament, NIT, and CBI will be revealed on Selection Sunday. In this piece, we’ll put together where each Pac-12 team fits into the picture as of today. To see last week’s projections, click here.

*Conference Champ

Definitely Dancing: Despite their recent struggles, both Arizona and Oregon remain locks at this point. I have the Wildcats a tad lower on the S-curve than most prognosticators, but they get to go to either Salt Lake City or San Jose instead of being shipped back east. Nothing is very special about their first round opponent, Stony Brook. The Seawolves, who I project to win the America East, currently sit at 19-6 and have notable seven- and one-point losses in games at Maryland and Seton Hall, respectively. Oregon cannot do anything to play itself out of the field of 68 thanks to its road sweep of the Washington schools. The Ducks have a great shot at winning the regular season championship, as they are already a full game up on UCLA and don’t play a team currently in the upper third of the league from here on out. Being the lowest #5 seed on the board, Dana Altman’s squad gets Virginia, the top #12 seed, in their NCAA opener. The Wahoos have won seven of their last nine and are rising on mock brackets everywhere pretty quickly.

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1. The big item for the discussion around the Pac-12 is this: Early in the second half of a game against USC on Sunday night, Mike Montgomery greeted Allen Crabbe at the start of a timeout by getting in his face and shoving him in the chest in an effort to wake up his talented junior. As Montgomery said after the game, it worked, eventually. After continuing to float along for several minutes following the incident, Crabbe eventually caught fire at the end of the game and brought his Bears back from a 15-point halftime deficit to beat the Trojans. The Pac-12 officially reprimanded Montgomery for the incident, but the head coach will not face a suspension from the league or his employer. In the wake of the incident, everybody’s got an opinion about it ranging from the hyperbolic “it’s an outrage!” to the “no big deal.” Me? I think it is a big deal, but not necessarily because Montgomery’s behavior was shameful. The problem is, more than once this season now, Montgomery’s emotions have gotten the best of him as he has dealt with mercurial personalities such as Crabbe, Justin Cobbs and Richard Solomon. If you’ve watched these guys float through games and underachieve as regularly as they have, you’ve probably wanted to shove them in the chest a time or two as well, even if you’ve got no rooting interest one way or the other. But for now, the hope is that this incident doesn’t overshadow the fact that all of a sudden, Montgomery is beginning to get production out of his group of kids, even if he’s using some unconventional and controversial methods to do so.
2. In Salt Lake City Sunday, Arizona head coach Sean Miller unveiled a new starting lineup, featuring Kevin Parrom at the three, Solomon Hill at the four and Brandon Ashley moving to a reserve role. While nothing is set in stone, Miller says that he’ll probably stick with that starting lineup going forward. Miller notes that the move wasn’t made out of disappointment with Ashley’s production but rather out of a desire to get Parrom’s veteran leadership more actively involved in the lineup.
3. Colorado’s Josh Scott suffered a concussion early in the second half of Saturday night’s loss to Arizona State when he and ASU center Jordan Bachynski got tangled up and fell to the floor. Scott took an inadvertent elbow to the head, left the floor and did not return to the game. Head coach Tad Boyle addressed the situation involving his talented freshman on Monday, saying that Scott will be fine but is currently considered day-to-day. Colorado next plays on Thursday night when it hosts Utah in a must-win game in Boulder.
4. In a week that featured plenty of great basketball games, Saturday’s Washington State/Oregon tussle may have been the most entertaining. For 44 minutes and most of a 45th, the Cougars played the Ducks to a draw. Despite giving up an 18-point first half lead, the Cougs were still right there battling with the conference-leaders, as sophomore guard Royce Woolridge was going off in a career-day kind of way, including his sixth three-pointer that knotted the score up at 77 with just a handful of seconds remaining. As Oregon rushed up the court to attempt a last second potential game-winning shot, WSU sophomore Dexter Kernich-Drew intentionally (but inexplicably) fouled E.J. Singler, sending him to the line with under four seconds remaining. Singler made both giving the Ducks the win and Washington State players and fans are left wondering what exactly happened there.
5. Lastly, just how good has Jahii Carson been this season for Arizona State? Well, compared will all the freshmen in the history of the Pac-12, he’s currently on pace to produce the 10th highest scoring average in the history of the conference. His 17.7 points per game comes in just shy of James Harden’s totals in his first season in the desert in 2007-08. Interestingly enough, UCLA freshman Shabazz Muhammad is currently seventh on the all-time list at 18.5 PPG. Carson is also now just 22 assists shy of becoming just the 12th freshman in conference history to register 150 assists in a season.

Who Won the Week? is a regular column that will outline and discuss three winners and losers from the previous week. The author of this column is Kenny Ocker (@KennyOcker), an Oregon-based sportswriter best known for his willingness to drive (or bike!) anywhere to watch a basketball game.

WINNER: California

The Golden Bears stormed Tucson on Sunday and came out on the better half of a 77-67 game, with special thanks to the Pac-12’s leading scorer, Allen Crabbe, who poured in 31 points. With 15 points in the first half, Crabbe came up strong again Thursday night as Cal dismantled UCLA in Berkeley to keep its undefeated record at home in Pac-12 play. Despite a four-loss non-conference schedule, the Bears have managed to play themselves back into the discussion for an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. Not bad considering that they were 3-4 fewer than three weeks ago.

Allen Crabbe had a week to remember. (Icon SMI)

(Related winners: Crabbe, who combined for 57 points in the two games; Oregon, which regained the conference lead it lost after a three-game losing streak including a loss to Cal. Related losers: Arizona – see below.)

LOSER: Arizona

After a foot injury to Oregon point guard Dominic Artis derailed the Ducks and led to a three-game losing streak and a gift of the Pac-12 lead to the Wildcats, they decided to give it right back with a pair of bad losses, stumbling at home to Cal before losing the return game against Colorado a month after a controversial buzzer-beater was disallowed and Arizona rolled in overtime to stay undefeated at the time. This time, the Buffaloes left no doubt about who would win, cruising to a 71-58 win. The Wildcats shot at an even 40 percent clip over the week, while Cal shot 59 percent and Colorado 50 percent. So much for having control over the conference.

(Related winners: Oregon. Related losers: None.)

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1. Colorado got a big win last night against Arizona, avenging its controversial loss against the Wildcats earlier in the season by cruising to a 71-58 victory. The C-Unit reacted in joyous celebration, pouring onto the court as the final buzzer sounded to celebrate the top ten win with the Bufffalo players. In his post game press conference, head coach Tad Boyle said, “This is the last time we storm the court at home. We expect to win.” And while there is certainly no problem having confidence in your team, this is just the latest instance of coaches, players, and media personalities trying to limit court rushes and set parameters on how and when to do it. This needs to stop. Rushing the court is a spontaneous event in which you are just so happy that you have to share it with thousands of other students and the players that made you that way. WHO CARES IF IT’S UNWARRANTED? It doesn’t ruin court-rushes in the future, or take the specialness out of it. If one’s favorite team is about to pull a huge late-season upset, no one is going to stop and think in the final seconds whether Maryland’s storming after beating NC State was warranted. That’s because they’re ready to celebrate and have some fun. So please people, stop dictating and start rushing. Life will be a lot more fun.
2. The rosters for the 2013 McDonald’s All-American game were released yesterday, and three Pac-12 signees/commitments will be taking part in the festivities. Rondae Jefferson, Jabari Bird, and Nigel Williams-Goss (signed or committed to Arizona, California, and Washington, respectively) are the three that will be playing Pac-12 ball season. Archbishop Mitty power forward Aaron Gordon will also play in the game. Gordon’s athleticism and ability to get to the rim make him one of the most sought after undecided prospects in the nation. He has narrowed his list down to Washington, Arizona, Kentucky, and Oregon.
3. There is no doubt about it, Oregon basketball is back and relevant on a national level. It’s huge win at Washington on Wednesday clinched the Ducks third straight season with at least 20 wins, the first time that’s happened in Eugene since the 1935-1939 campaigns. Oregon’s gotten to this point by playing some incredible, in-your-face defense while starting point guard Dominic Artis has been out. Keeping the games low-scoring have keyed the current two-game streak the Ducks are on, and they have a pretty good chance to extend it to three on Saturday against Washington State.
4. Is mediocre the right word to describe the Pac-12 this season? I don’t think so. It’s more of a case that anyone can beat anyone on any given night, resulting in some not-too-stellar conference records. In the Big Ten, the nation calls that great basketball. In the Pac-12, they use it as an excuse to put us down with the SEC in ranking of power conferences. Even the bottom of the league isn’t terrible. Washington State only lost by two to Gonzaga earlier in the season, Utah has dropped road games at BYU, Arizona State, and Arizona by a combined seven points, and Oregon State is probably the most talented tenth place team in the nation. Mediocre implies that this conferences boasts no good, just average teams. And while the Pac is far from their glory days, that’s just not true.
5. Wednesday’s 60-55 upset over Arizona State was a big one psychologically for Utah, who may have been ready to call it a season if yet another second half lead was lost. The resilient Utes managed to knock down some key shots in the final two minutes, and mixed with some stellar defense and a loud student section, the Utes sent Arizona State to Boulder with a crushing blow to its tournament résumé. The key was staying calm and being patient, as too many times this season the Utes have gotten ahead of themselves and taken bad late shots. If they can continue this type of execution on Sunday against a reeling Arizona team, it might be time to start talking postseason.

Congratulations to Arizona, who managed to climb through a messy week on the west coast and take the top spot in our power rankings. If Oregon could have scored a point or two in the final four and a half minutes against Colorado last Thursday, there is no doubt the Ducks would be in the driver’s seat right now. UCLA comes as a unanimous pick at the three spot. The Bruins barely squeaked by Washington on Thursday before getting a dominating win Saturday night against Washington State. Our conference team of the week comes in at number four in the form of Colorado, who is fresh off a road sweep of the Oregon schools. Arizona State was another unanimous pick at fifth after picking up an impressive win over California and dropping a close decision to Stanford. Those same Cardinal round out the upper half of the conference at sixth, and the surprising and fast-rising USC Trojans follow them. California, Washington, Oregon State, Washington State, and Utah round out the remainder of the rankings.

• Matching The National Rankings. The three Pac-12 teams receiving votes in the two national polls appear in the same order in our rankings. Arizona, ranked ninth in both polls, is obviously first here. The second place Ducks come in at 23rd and 27th, respectively, in the national rankings. And UCLA, who has a solid amount of distance between the two teams closest to them, is ranked at 38th and 41st. This upper third of the conference also has another thing in common; the fact that all of them are considered locks for the NCAA Tournament right now. That could change for Oregon and UCLA with a couple losses this week, but they are on solid ground for now.
• The USC/Washington Debate. The Trojans and Huskies had more than just Sunday’s game in common this week. Both teams spurred the most debate between one voter and the other three, as I ranked UW three spots ahead of SC, and the other voters did the opposite. Even as the Trojans had the obvious better week, I can’t justify in my mind placing a team that will struggle to make the postseason in front of a near lock for the NIT.

Yesterday we unveiled this week’s honor roll; today we take a look at five teams earning good, solid, average grades. Check in later today for the four teams that will be serving detention this week.

Cal – B-

All things considered, this was a solid week for the Golden Bears. They went down to Arizona for what is considered to be the toughest road trip in the conference this year and came away with a split, including a win over a national top-10 team and a four-point loss to a very good Arizona State squad. That makes three wins in four tries for the Bears and  a team that will likely be playing its best ball of the season as we head into the final month.

Focus on: Jeff Powers. What? You were expecting Allen Crabbe here? Nah, you can read about him as our Pac-12 Player of the Week. Instead, maybe check out what the Golden Bears’ own resident blogger, their junior guard Powers, has to say about his team and their performance in knocking off the Wildcats. Unfortunately, there’s no comment from him about his fine five-minute stretch against Arizona State where he knocked down a three, chalked up an assist and came away with a steal in helping keep his squad close in the second half.

Looking ahead: The Bears have a chance to make a run here, as they host the Los Angeles schools this week. They’ll likely be small favorites in both games and if they can defend their home court at Haas Pavilion, they’ve got a chance to make a bit of a jump up the standings.

He May Not Be A Prolific Scorer, But Jeff Powers Is A Budding Blogger

Stanford – C+

Both Cal and Stanford went to the Arizona schools and came away with splits. Why do the Golden Bears come away with a slightly better grade? The Cardinal’s dogged determination (and fortunate failure) to give away a close game against Arizona State was concerning. Still, Johnny Dawkins’ club has now won four of its last five and has got its offense on the move.

Focus on: Dwight Powell. The junior forward has scored in double figures in every game in the conference schedule, but he hadn’t topped 20 since he did it three straight times in December. He broke that streak this week by going for 24 against Arizona and then answering with 22 against the Sun Devils. Even better, he also grabbed double-figure rebounds in both games, giving him seven double-doubles on the year.

Looking ahead: The Cardinal host USC tomorrow night, then see UCLA on Saturday afternoon. Stanford was swept by these teams in Los Angeles back on the first weekend of conference play, leading to an hour-long post-game meeting following the UCLA game, and since then the Cardinal have gone 6-3 in conference play.

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Here’s another installment of the weekly Pac-12 honors, as handed out by the Pac-12 microsite.

Team of the Week – Colorado

All season long, the Buffaloes have had problems closing. Dating back to the Charleston Classic when they did their best to give away their semifinal game to  Baylor, continuing most famously through the Arizona game and on several other occasions, end-game scenarios have been downright scary for Tad Boyle’s club. Coupled with the truth that the Buffs have struggled in their two Pac-12 seasons on the road (a record of 4-10 coming into this weekend), the fact that this team went on the road to the Oregon schools and came away with two hard-fought wins in which they performed admirably down the stretch shows that the Buffaloes are indeed making progress — a hallmark of Boyle-coached teams. Against Oregon on Thursday night, a game-winning bucket by Andre Roberson was a good metaphor for this squad’s whole week. After getting his layup attempt swatted from behind by Arsalan Kazemi, Roberson persevered by grabbing the ball and putting it back in for the go-ahead win. On Sunday night, Spencer Dinwiddie was the CU hero, making all of his shots on the night (6-of-6 from the field with four threes, and 8-of-8 from the line) and providing a calming presence down the stretch. With their chance at revenge against Arizona coming up this week in Boulder, the Buffs have a chance to put themselves squarely in the middle of the Pac-12 race.

Allen Crabbe’s Big Second Half Helped Cal Knock Off Arizona on Sunday Night (Ben Margot/AP)

Player of the Week – Allen Crabbe, California

When Crabbe’s got it going, he’s one of the nation’s elite scorers. And Crabbe definitely had it going on Sunday night. He and his Golden Bears had a decent first half against Arizona; he scored 12 and Cal was within five of the nation’s #7 team at the break. But the Cal wing earned this honor as a result of what happened after halftime. Crabbe scored 11 points before the first media timeout in the second half as the Bears put together a 17-2 run from which they would never look back. As the half progressed, every time the Wildcats got back within striking distance, Crabbe would hit another big shot, twice drilling threes after Arizona pulled within four then hitting a big jumper late after the ‘Cats had pulled within two. All told, Crabbe wound up with 31 points on the night, missing just three three-pointers out of his 15 attempts from the field. For the week, Crabbe averaged 23.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists and a block per game, all while shooting a 63.6% effective field goal rate.

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1. It was another wild weekend in the Pac-12 that left the conference standings even more confusing than they were before the weekend, with a three-way tie for first place and five other teams within two games of the lead. Oregon ended its three-game losing streak on Saturday night by sneaking past Utah, as freshman guard Damyean Dotson had his best game in recent weeks, scoring 12 points in the first 11 minutes of the second half to help spark his Ducks. But it is the Ducks’ other starting freshman guard who is the big news. Dominic Artis has now missed five games with a left foot injury, but it appears he may be close to returning. Artis will meet with a doctor today and could possibly be cleared to play at Washington on Wednesday night. But, even if that happens, head coach Dana Altman warns that Artis won’t jump immediately back into his full complement of minutes.
2. During the Ducks’ three-game slide, Arizona jumped to the top of the Pac-12 standings all by itself, albeit briefly. The Wildcats, after playing a solid first half against Cal on Sunday night, came out of the halftime locker room sleepwalking and were repeatedly burned by Allen Crabbe en route to an eight-point home loss to California. Sean Miller had been trying to get his ‘Cats focused on starting games strong, and they were successful in that area, but maybe the problem was just bumped back 20 minutes?
3. One of the only Bracketology pieces released on weekends, John Templon’s projections are always fun to look at on Sunday nights. These predictions are focused more on the NIT, but we can of course deduce who is in his Big Dance as well. Templon thinks Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, and Colorado are all in the NCAAs, with Arizona State just missing the cut line and instead getting a one seed in the NIT. Stanford is up next as a four seed, and California and Washington round out the Pac-12’s representation at the six and seven line. Oregon State makes Templon’s list of the “First 16 Out“, meaning the Beavers will need a lot of help, luck, and multiple good wins in the final month of play to avoid another year of the CBI.
4. Washington center Aziz N’Diaye has quickly tuned into one of the most productive and trusted players on the Huskies in his final season in Seattle. One of the most durable big men in the Pac-12, N’Diaye is averaging 10.7 PPG and 9.7 RPG to give Washington a useful tool in the post. He’s become a well-needed presence on the defensive end of the court, and if UW needs a late two, the ball will definitely touch his hands. For N’Diaye to move on and succeed at the next level (and he should get that chance), the biggest thing he can do is to just slow down and watch the ball go into his hands. Ball control can be tricky at times for big men, and the same is true for him. Once he catches the ball, however, there is no better center in the league at turning to the hoop and getting the ball up on the rim.
5. It was more of the same on Sunday night for Oregon State, who managed to yet again freeze up in the closing minutes and give up a second half lead. Colorado went into Corvallis and left with a sweep of the Oregon schools, possibly getting them off the bubble for the time being and handing the Beavers their eighth loss by eight or fewer points so far this season. The problems stretch all the way from the coaching staff to the players for the Beavs, who just can’t seem to execute in the final minute. Craig Robinson has tried the “let ’em play” approach, which both times resulted in Joe Burton turnovers at the buzzer. Last night Robinson used his timeouts down the stretch, but neglected to call a play to free up a shooter. Instead, two of OSU’s final three possessions resulted in a Burton sky-hook or a dribble drive and fumble when threes were the best option. The Beavers travel to Pullman on Wednesday in a game that could decide who gets the #10 or #11 seed in the Pac-12 Tournament.

Note: Drew Murawa also contributed to this article.

As we dive into the back nine of conference play and approach the home stretch of the season, it’s time to take a look at the three postseason tournaments and where each Pac-12 team fits into the picture. I’ll make my full bracket projections each week (or two) for the NCAAs, NIT, and CBI, and then report where the Pac falls on the list.

Definitely Dancing: Arizona, Oregon, and UCLA are all locks at this point in the season. I have the Wildcats just a bit higher than most prognosticators at number four in the nation, as they have been one of the few consistently good teams that doesn’t have any bad losses (barely). In an interesting second round matchup, they square off with the best 16 seed, Charleston Southern. Of course, the two teams already met in the season opener, with CSU hanging around for a good portion of the game before fading quietly down the stretch.

Oregon is so much of a lock that it would basically have to lose each of its remaining games to miss the tournament. It may be hanging onto a four seed by a thread, but good wins over the likes of UNLV, Arizona, and UCLA give them the nod over any bubble team if it ever came down to that. I currently have the Ducks matching up against a mildly dangerous Louisiana Tech squad at 13. The Bulldogs have a nearly impeccable 20-3 record, but the schedule has been fairly soft.

UCLA’s recent two game skid has made things much more interesting for the Bruins, but this year’s bubble is so soft that they are fine for now. That’s in part due to their Top 50 RPI standing and good wins against Indiana State, Missouri, Colorado, and Arizona. However, the recent struggles don’t go unpunished. Dropping down to a low eight seed means as challenging a tournament opener as you’re going to get, and that comes in the form of a 19-4 Colorado State team.

Bubble In: Colorado and Arizona State are the other two Pac-12 teams I see making the field of 68, but both will likely be sweating bullets come Selection Sunday. The 15-7 Buffaloes are actually seeded pretty high considering their record, due in part to a Top 25 RPI that’s keeping Tad Boyle and company on the good side of the bubble. There are five remaining key games on CU’s slate (home against  Arizona, Arizona State, and Oregon, at the Bay Area schools), and if the Buffs come out on the good side of three of them they should be a lock for the Big Dance.

Arizona State is on even thinner ice. The Sun Devils are the final team in my rankings before the dangerous 12’s begin, and while their record (17-5) is much better than Colorado’s, an SOS of 110 is holding them down badly. Regardless of where they land in the field, this ASU team will be a sneaky bunch come tournament time. A meeting with head coach Herb Sendek’s former school in the opener would be quite a sight, and a chance for the Pac-12 to get some major recognition on a national level.

Freshman Point Guard Jahii Carson Has Led Arizona State From The Bottom Of The Pac To The NCAA Bubble (credit: Zach Long)

NIT Locks: Washington is the next team up for the Pac-12, and while its recent poor play means the Huskies won’t be in any NCAA bubble discussion, an NIT lock is definite. The Huskies currently sit at an uninspiring 13-10, but they have been in most every game they’ve played (only two losses were by double digits, and the last three were all by five points or less). Combine those factors with the fact that Alaska Airlines Arena typically draws well, and the Huskies made a run to the semifinals of the same tournament last season, I like Washington right now a solid four seed. That means they would host at least a first round game, and I have them playing an interesting Xavier squad in the opener.

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