Bill Hupp is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.
Conference Tournament Preview
After a thrilling regular season, it’s on to Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Despite being a three-seed, OhioState has to be considered the favorite given how well they ended the regular season. If either MichiganState or OSU wins the Big Ten Tournament, they will get strong consideration for a one-seed. Teams like Wisconsin, Indiana and Purdue can all improve their NCAA Tournament seeds with strong showings this weekend.
Northwestern is the only clear bubble team in the conference, and as such is under the most pressure to string some wins together. If the Wilcats can beat Minnesota in the first round, they’ll face a Michigan team that they only lost to twice this season, though both losses came in overtime. Two wins in the Big Ten tournament should make them a virtual lock for their first-ever tournament birth, but it’s much easier said than done with this level of competition.
College Basketball coaches are used to selling their program all the time. Marketing is usually geared towards recruits but March can be a time for lobbying for an NCAA bid if you live on the bubble. But Northwestern Head Coach Bill Carmody refuses to do that this week. He understand that the Wildcats control their own destiny if they can beat Minnesota on Thursday. That won’t make them a shoe-in but should certainly help their case especially if they also give Michigan a great game on Friday. Carmody’s team split the season series against Minnesota as each team held server on its home court. If Drew Crawford continues to be a force offensively — 23 points against Ohio State and 18 against Iowa — the Wildcats might finally make it to the NCAA Tournament.
With Branden Dawson out for the season, Tom Izzo needs every other Spartan to be healthy and ready to step up over the next few weeks. Travis Trice re-injured his ankle during practice on Wednesday and had to be carried from practice by a trainer. Trice should get more than 17 minutes per game which has been his average this season. Look for Izzo to use Brandon Wood as the primary ball-handler and run more offensive plays for Keith Appling. Whatever it may be, the veteran coach will be trying out a few rotations during the B1G tournament before the Big Dance.
Has any other Big Ten coach received more national coverage over the last month than Bruce Weber? Sports Illustrated published an article about the Illinois coach on Wednesday. Michael Rosenberg makes the case that Weber is being forced out despite having a solid record in the Big Ten (albeit skewed towards the early years). He also makes a great point that the Big Ten has been a “coaches league,” so the best of the best are going against each other which makes the job very stressful and as a result, programs expect consistent titles in the conference.
Michigan fans have been celebrating all season long, all the way until its shared Big Ten title on Sunday. Whatever happens over the next few weeks, Wolverines fans will be happy for what they got this year. But they would ask only one more thing from their sophomore star, Tim Hardaway Jr. — to come back for a junior season. Hardaway, Jr., dodged the question about his future in an interview with Grantland, but if he does come back, the trio of himself, Trey Burke and the highly recruited Mitch McGary, the Wolverines might just have their sights set on the 2013 Final Four.
Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger came back for one more season to make something happen in March. Winning the regular season championship is just one of his checklist items but he has been waiting for postseason play ever since the Buckeyes’ loss to Kentucky a year ago. Sullinger is anxious to go further than the Sweet Sixteen round, and the sophomore definitely put in the work during the offseason. Thad Matta hopes it will continue to pay off as Ohio State looks to get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2007.
Big Ten contributors Joey Nowak (@joeynowak), Ryan Terpstra (@terphimself), and Deepak Jayanti (@10thyearseniors) put their heads together and discussed some key questions heading into the Big Ten Tournament. Here are their thoughts:
1.) What school playing on Thursday has the best shot to win the Big Ten Tournament?
Joey: I really think any team besides Nebraska and Penn State (though if Tim Frazier heats up, Penn State could have a repeat of last year) has a chance to do damage. Minnesota and Illinois both have talent and nothing to lose. Purdue is playing better, with the experienced Robbie Hummel at the helm, and has a bit of a chip on its shoulder. Iowa has a guy in Matt Gatens they can ride to a win or two. And Northwestern should come in as focused as any team in the tournament, given what’s at stake for the Wildcats.
But the team I would least like to play this weekend is Indiana. The Hoosiers have won four in a row (the last three against quality Big Ten opponents) and seven of their last eight. They should handle Penn State before taking a great shot at Wisconsin on Friday. They are better on defense than they were early in the Big Ten schedule, and can still score with the best of them, thanks to a solid inside-out game. But the intangible of playing in front of a friendly Indianapolis crowd could be a huge boost. It won’t give them the same advantage they’ve held at Assembly Hall this season, but if the last few years are any indication (when they were terrible), the Hoosier faithful will be out in full force. Don’t be surprised to see them playing Sunday.
What can we expect from Ohio State this weekend in Indianapolis? Many are unsure, and that includes the Columbus Dispatch’s Rob Oller. The Buckeyes are just 4-3 in their last seven games, and it’s hard to say how that Sunday date in East Lansing would have gone if Michigan State had Branden Dawson for the duration. But Ohio State has battled through its late-season troubles for a share of the Big Ten title. The question is, where do they go from here? Is this the same team many people thought could run the table in the Big Ten? They’ve had role players step up in the last few weeks, but does Thad Matta’s group have the depth to make a run? Only one way to find out.
As of Tuesday, ESPN‘s Joe Lunardi had Northwestern as one of the last four teams in his mock NCAA Tournament bracket. But CBSSports.com‘s Jerry Palm tells Teddy Greenstein that Northwestern needs to win two games in the Big Ten Tournament to seal a bid in the Big Dance. That would mean a win against Minnesota on Thursday, and then an upset of two-seed Michigan on Friday in the second round. It seems the Wildcats’ fate is in their own hands.
Fran McCaffery made no bones about his thoughts on the All-Big Ten teams and how it relates to his Hawkeyes. McCaffery said on his weekly radio show early this week that he believes Matt Gatensshould have been on the first team. “I voted him on the first team,” McCaffery said. “I think Matt Gatens is one of the five best players.” McCaffery also said he felt Gatens — a second-team media selection and third-team coaches pick — also should have been on the All-Defensive team.
Plenty of college basketball pundits around the country love hammering the RPI, so why not give this system that a Minnesota graduate student came up with a try? Luke Stanke has developed a statistical model that he says can more fairly choose and seed the 68 NCAA Tournament teams and calls it the “Win Index.” Sounds like somebody’s got a lot of free time on his hands.
It hasn’t been an easy road back for Purdue senior Robbie Hummel, but he was rewarded this week by being named to the All-Big Ten first team for the third time in his career. Hummel, who was part of the “Baby Boilers” class that helped bring Purdue back to the college basketball forefront, is averaging 22.6 points and 9.6 rebounds in Purdue’s last seven games. Hummel is the 18th Big Ten player to earn three first-team berths, and the first since Michigan State‘s Mateen Cleaves in 2000.
Michigan State knows plenty about the Kenyon Martin Effect. When Martin — the consensus 2000 National Player of the Year as a senior at Cincinnati after averaging 18.9 points, 9.7 boards, and 3.5 blocks per game — broke his leg in the Conference USA Tournament, it drastically affected the Bearcats’ hopes for a national title. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee took notice as well, and knocked Cincinnati down to a #2 seed, when they probably would have otherwise been the #1 overall seed. It proved to be somewhat prophetic as the Bearcats were upset in the second round by Tulsa, and MSU went on to win Tom Izzo’s only national championship.
Without Branden Dawson, can the Spartans win the Big Ten Tournament or make a run in the Big Dance? (Daniel Mears / Detroit News)
Branden Dawson — the Michigan State freshman wing who tore his ACL in Sunday’s loss to Ohio State –– is no Kenyon Martin. Martin went on to be the #1 pick in the NBA Draft that year and has had a nice pro career, while Dawson still has plenty of room to grow though he likely has the highest ceiling of anyone on this Spartans squad. But how will Dawson’s injury affect Michigan State’s postseason chances and the chances the Committee gives them? The Spartans still have to play the Big Ten Tournament (they will be the #1 seed in Indianapolis this weekend), but are unlikely to receive a #1 seed in the Big Dance. If they win the Big Ten Tourney, they are likely a lock for a #2 seed. If they fizzle out, a #3 seed is possible.
This Weekend’s Lede – What makes the official start of March Madness? Saturday, March 3, which included 105 total games, three conference tournament championships, and 15 ranked teams playing their regular season finales definitely felt like the appropriate start date. Sunday saw eight more ranked teams play and one more conference tournament decided. It was a wonderful start to Championship Week that included both the usual (Murray State won the OVC) and the unexpected (Wichita State, Iona, and Middle Tennessee all lost before the title game) that makes our sport so much fun to watch. All regular season games but one Ivy contest are now completed, so the power leagues start up their own conference tournaments in the next couple of days. Over the course of the next week we will find out 27 more automatic bid winners and the 37 at-large teams to fill out the NCAA Tournament bracket. Let’s start by rehashing what took place over the weekend, and who looks good to go dancing. We start in the Big Ten…
Your Watercooler Moment. Buckeyes Victory Means a Three-Way Tie for Big Ten Supremacy
Who said that Ohio State blew its chance at a Big Ten title last week with its loss to Wisconsin? Well, we were actually guilty of thinking the same, as Michigan State had built a two-game lead with two games to play in the conference season. But after losing at Indiana, the Spartans needed to defend their home court and defeat Ohio State in Sunday’s regular season finale if they wanted the outright Big Ten championship. The Buckeyes had other ideas, as they came back from down double-digits in the second half to eventually win on a game-winner with one second remaining. William Buford’s jumper not only evened Ohio State with Michigan State at 13-5 in the conference, but it also means that Michigan’s 13-5 record holds up as a third team atop the Big Ten. These three teams all slipped up at home late in the season, but none was more costly than this Michigan State loss with the outright title and a likely NCAA Tournament #1 seed on the line. The Big Ten Tournament will be as great to watch as ever before, with so many teams jockeying for postseason inclusion or seeding position, and three teams all as co-favorites. In the tiebreaker scenarios, Michigan State comes out victorious as the regular-season champion and #1 seed, but all three split their season series and can stake a legitimate claim as league champ.
Top Storyline – North Carolina Exacts Revenge on Duke. If it weren’t for Austin Rivers’ buzzer-beating three on February 8, then North Carolina would currently be on a 13-game winning streak in ACC play with a +13.6 average scoring margin in those games. The Tar Heels got revenge on Duke for that shot and made sure everyone remembers how great this team is as UNC throttled Duke from the outset of Saturday night’s regular season finale. The Tar Heels jumped out to an 18-5 lead in under four minutes, wound it all the way up to a 24-point advantage at halftime, and finished it off with an 88-70 blowout victory going away. Duke has struggled in Cameron Indoor Stadium this season, but nothing like this, in which the road team was superior in every facet of the game. The Tar Heels’ entire starting lineup finished with at least 12 points, Kendall Marshall dished out his usual 10 assists, and John Henson and Tyler Zeller each had 10 rebounds. Carolina is the ACC champion and peaking at the right time of year.
William Buford stole Draymond Green’s spotlight on Senior Day in East Lansing on Sunday. Buford drilled a jumper during the final seconds to lead Ohio State to a Big Ten title tie with Michigan State and Michigan. He scored 25 points during the pivotal road win. Thad Matta‘s team had a huge week with tough wins at Northwestern and Michigan State. The Buckeyes have finally shown that they have the mental toughness to do well in March.
Draymond Green can deal with losing the final home game of his career at Michigan State. But Branden Dawson‘s injury during the game is more concerning for Green and the Spartans as they head into postseason play. Reports state that Dawson tore the ACL of his left knee and might be out for rest of the season. Not only will Tom Izzo miss Dawson’s 8.5 points per game and 4.6 rebounds per game; but his defense will be sorely missed as the Spartans look forward to the NCAA Tournament.
Even though Bruce Weber might not be wanted in Champaign, sources indicate that his prior employer, Southern Illinois might be interested in hiring him back to coach in Carbondale, Illinois. Southern Illinois fired their coach and Weber’s protege, Chris Lowery, after two frustrating seasons that resulted in no tournament appearances. Illinois finished the Big Ten season by losing 11 out of the last 13 games as they got crushed in Madison, 70-56 on the road to a Wisconsin team that is surging at the right time.
Speaking of Wisconsin, Bo Ryan continued his streak of wins on Senior Day in Madison as they beat Illinois. Ryan has never lost a game on Senior Day during his time with the Badgers. Seniors Rob Wilson and Jordan Taylor chipped in 8 points and 16 points respectively during their win on Sunday. After their big win against Ohio State on the road last weekend, Bo Ryan’s squad seems to be getting their act together as they prepare for postseason action.
John Beilein is a hero in Ann Arbor today. Michigan won their first Big Ten regular season title for the first time since the 1985-1986 season. The Wolverines were in transit from State College during the pivotal Ohio State – Michigan State game on Sunday afternoon. They watched the final minutes of the game after reaching Ann Arbor including William Buford’s cold-blooded shot that gave them a share of the Big Ten championship.
Bill Hupp is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference. Follow him on Twitter at @Bill_Hupp for his thoughts on hoops, food, box fans and life.
Reader’s Take
The Week That Was:
Spartan Success: Despite losing guys like Korie Lucious, Kalin Lucas and Delvon Roe, the Michigan State express rolled on. Perhaps no other coach in the country teaches a system and its principles quite like Tom Izzo. Surprise losses on Sunday by both Ohio State and Michigan, however, meant that MSU’s weekend destruction of Nebraska clinched them of the at least a share of the Big Ten title. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Chicago (Evanston) Hope: That wind you felt coming from Chicago might have been a collective sigh of relief from Northwestern fans after senior leader John Shurna sank two free throws with mere seconds to play to help the Wildcats escape Happy Valley with a 67-66 win. Two straight gut-wrenching losses in one week might have been more than Northwestern could have overcome as they sweat out life on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Lousy in Lincoln: It’s no secret that Nebraska has struggled on offense this year. But not since 1961 has Nebraska been so putrid on offense as they were when they were embarrassed by Michigan State, 61-34, at home over the weekend. The Huskers shot under 30% for the game and the loss of leading scorer Bo Spencer to an injured ankle near halftime only hampered their scoring efforts.
The Perennial Lesson In College Basketball 101 Is To Never Count Out The Michigan State Spartans.
Power Rankings
Michigan State (24-5, 13-3) – As good as Michigan State has been this season, how would the Spartans be if Delvon Roe hadn’t been forced to drop basketball due to chronic knee problems? Roe’s presence would have given them more depth and would have taken the load off of Draymond Green at certain points. But it also forced youngsters like Branden Dawson and Adreian Payne to grow up quickly. While they’ve struggled with consistency, those guys are a big part of why the Spartans are Big Ten champs.
Ohio State (23-6, 11-5) – Strange times in Columbus. After riding a 39-game winning streak and destroying most visitors who dared enter Value City Arena, the Buckeyes have now lost two of their last three games at home. Jared Sullinger has seemingly disappeared in big games and crucial moments this season. Read the rest of this entry »
Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.
There are a lot of good teams in action on Wednesday, but most of them are strong favorites in their games. The two best matchups of the night are taking place in the Big East and Big Ten.
Here’s the breakdown and what else to watch for:
West Virginia at #17 Notre Dame – 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2 (****)
Mike Brey's Team Has Won Eight in a Row and Looks Really Strong (AP Photo/J. Raymond)
It seems like every game that West Virginia plays is a toss-up, and this one is no different. The Mountaineers have lost five of their last seven but are coming off a big win at Pittsburgh where they were slight underdogs. They are once again slight underdogs in South Bend to take on the red-hot Fighting Irish. WVU usually plays strong perimeter defense, which will force the Irish guards into running more difficult offense, but will the Mountaineers’ own guards provide enough scoring punch? Truck Bryant has been a good secondary scorer at 16.6 PPG in Big East play, but no other guard averages more than eight points per night. They need someone else to step up to complement Bryant and Kevin Jones. Jones remains a stud this season and you can all but lock up 20 points and 10 rebounds from him. The Mountaineers will try to out-tough the Irish by controlling the boards with their 54.1% rebounding percentage in Big East games, tops in the conference.
Notre Dame hasn’t lost in over a month, winning eight straight games and all in impressive fashion. They didn’t look great in their Saturday night game at Villanova, but the Irish still came back from a 20-point deficit and closed out a road game in overtime. Five different Notre Dame players have led the team in scoring during its winning streak, and the offense has been tremendously well-rounded. They can pound the ball inside to Jack Cooley (12.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG), find surging Pat Connaughton from the outside (12.6 PPG in his last five games), or use strong guard duo Eric Atkins (13.0 PPG) and Jerian Grant (12.9 PPG) to make plays. The question will be whether Mike Brey‘s team can execute against WVU’s tough defense or grab any offensive boards against the strong defensive rebounding team.
West Virginia is the best rebounding team in the Big East while Notre Dame’s 49.4% rebound percentage is just 13th in the conference. The Mountaineers could control this game if they dominate the boards, but otherwise the Irish should find a much easier time scoring with their diverse offensive sets. Notre Dame is just a three-point favorite in what is expected to be a tight matchup.
#5 Michigan State at Minnesota – 8:30 PM ET on Big Ten Network (***)
Michigan State has won five straight, seven of its last eight, and looks like a strong candidate for an NCAA #1 seed. Draymond Green is fully healthy and continues to state his case for Big Ten Player of the Year, but it’s the secondary players that have come along. Freshman Branden Dawson continues to improve and has massive upside as a swing forward, while bigs Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix continue to play better and better as the season progresses. The Spartans remain one of the strongest defensive teams in the country and seem incredibly difficult to score on during stretches. There’s no reason to expect anything different against a struggling Golden Gophers offense. Tom Izzo‘s team is peaking yet again in the late stage of the season.
It was a Big Ten clash of the titans, filled with big storylines and consequence, and it proved to be a telling game. Michigan State positioned itself as a legitimate threat to Ohio State‘s hopes for winning the conference title, which were once perceived to be all but a sure thing before the Spartans’ 58-48 upset win in Columbus. Here are a few things to take away from Saturday evening’s game:
Jared Sullinger and Draymond Green are in a two-horse race for Big Ten Player of the Year. (Terry Gilliam/AP)
Implications For the Big Ten Race — At the beginning of the year, Ohio State was deemed the clear-cut favorite to take home the conference hardware and, despite a shaky start to Big Ten play, the Buckeyes had really started to emerge as the favorite. But Michigan State has been far more competitive this year than many expected and is now right in the thick of it. It’s easy to envision this conference race coming down to the wire, when Ohio State travels to East Lansing for Michigan State’s Senior Day on March 4. But for now, with the two clubs tied atop the conference standings (one game ahead of Wisconsin and Michigan), they’ve each got to protect the throne. Things get no easier for the Spartans, who now host Wisconsin before traveling to Purdue and Minnesota. The Buckeyes also have two road games coming up, going to Michigan and at home versus Minnesota. Both scenarios leave plenty of room for the Wolverines and Badgers to creep back into the mix, so things remain as up for grabs as ever. Read the rest of this entry »
After a thrilling regular season, it’s on to Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Despite being a three-seed, Ohio State has to be considered the favorite given how well they ended the regular season. If either Michigan State or OSU wins the Big Ten Tournament, they will get strong consideration for a one-seed. Teams like Wisconsin, Indiana and Purdue can all improve their NCAA Tournament seeds with strong showings this weekend.
