Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

1. After last night’s buzzer beating win against No. 1 Indiana, Illinois moves back into the field. The Illini are still only 3-7 in conference play, but wins over Butler, Gonzaga, Ohio State, and Indiana are too good to ignore.
2. Since my last update, we have seen three No. 1 seeds lose. Florida lost to Arkansas, Indiana fell to Illinois, and Kansas was embarrassed by TCU. For the first time all season, Kansas moves to the No. 2 line. Florida and Indiana remain on the No. 1 line, for now. Duke is finally playing like a No. 1 seed again, so the Blue Devils are back on my top line.
3. Missouri, a team I have continued to leave as a “lock” in my bubble watch articles is no longer a lock. Losses to LSU and Texas A&M in the last week are completely unforgivable. The Tigers are now a nine seed in my bracket after being a top 10 team early in the season.

LAST FOUR IN: Saint Louis, Temple, La Salle, Illinois
FIRST FOUR OUT: Boise State, Arizona State, Wyoming, Maryland

(full bracket after the jump)

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With nearly half of the ACC docket gone and Miami continuing to cement its hold on an undefeated league record, now is as good a time as any to continue with the bracket talk.

Miami has an outside shot of getting a #1 seed. Who would have expected that after losing to Florida Gulf Coast? (Asheboro Courier-Tribune)

Definitely IN

Duke (19-2, 6-2):  While Duke is not first in the ACC (and has a 27-point defeat to the team currently leading the conference), the Blue Devils would almost assuredly receive the highest seed of any team in the ACC if the season ended today. (A similar margin of defeat for North Carolina last year against a team from Florida did not cost them a #1 seed).  Wins against Louisville, Minnesota, VCU, and Kentucky have definitely lost some of their luster in recent weeks, but Duke is still #1 in the RPI rankings and is now ranked #4 in the national polls. The Blue Devils put together by far their best performance post-Ryan Kelly in their resounding defeat of Florida State over the weekend. While Kelly’s return is still uncertain, talk is that he could return to action around the end of February. Duke gets its first revenge game on Thursday at home against NC State, and a win there against a snake-bitten NC State team would do wonders to increase Duke’s legitimacy without Kelly playing. Duke will obviously hope to have him back at 100% soon, because potentially huge games loom in Duke’s final four conference games (@Virginia, Miami, Virginia Tech, @UNC). At the moment, Duke would probably be the third or fourth #1 seed, and could possibly gain the overall #1 seed by running the table, or could fall to a #2 seed if they drop two or three more games in league play depending on what happens in the Big Ten, with middling scenarios (one or two additional conference losses and an ACC Tournament championship) likely keeping them about where they are now.

• Seed projection:  #1 (now), could fall to a #2
• Best wins:  Louisville (neutral), Ohio State, VCU, Kentucky (neutral), Minnesota (neutral)
• Worst losses: @Miami (just by the sheer margin)

Miami (17-3, 8-0):  The Hurricanes may be the hottest team in America right now, having won nine games in a row. Their victory on Reggie Johnson’s last second tip-in in Raleigh on Saturday made Miami the heavy favorite to win the ACC’s regular season title, as they hold a two-game lead over the closest opposition, Duke, whom they have already defeated by 27 points. The Hurricanes are also ranked #2 in the RPI (behind only Duke), so all of the computer numbers are going to bat for them, and they have also risen into the top 10 in the AP poll. Miami’s only truly difficult conference game left is against Duke in Cameron, but aside from that, they should be favored in every game and the conference right now is clearly theirs to lose. Miami has a great case for a 2 seed right now with its RPI and resounding defeat of Duke, which could be the most impressive feather in the cap for any team this season. If they run the table in the ACC, they will get a #1 seed, and if they finish 16-2 or 17-1, their chances of a #1 seed are still pretty good, especially if they also win the ACC Tournament. The game against Duke could be a battle for top seed and would put the winner in the driver’s seat headed into the ACC Tournament.

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Wednesday afternoons for the rest of the season. 

What is a “Bubble Watch?” Below is my bubble watch. If you are not familiar with my work, this is basically a current look at how things are shaping up for the NCAA Tournament. Each conference is broken down and the teams I am currently considering on the bubble are listed. This makes it easy to figure out how many at-large berths are left for the NCAA Tournament. Remember, 31 automatic NCAA Tournament bids go to the conference tournament winners (and the Ivy champion). The other 37 bids are at-large bids, or bids that the selection committee gives to the best remaining teams that fail to win an automatic bid.

Bracket Math: Below there are 25 locks along the right column. That means if none of my “locks” wins an auto-bid, there are 12 at-large spots available for the NCAA Tournament. It is usually safe to say that an average of six of my locks will win automatic bids, so that means 19 at-large bids will be taken and I project that 18 at-large bids  remain available to the NCAA Tournament. For those wondering, if you take all the teams I have at 70% or higher (six) and include them in my projection there are 31 “locks” and “should be ins”.  At the very least, that leaves six at-large spots available for the NCAA Tournament. If you figure that at least six of my locks/should be ins win automatic bids, there are 12 spots available.

What Does Being a “Lock” Mean? It means that at this point, I see no way that team could miss the NCAA Tournament. Every year I end up having to move at least one team I have locked in back into the at-large pool.

Understanding “At-Large Odds” Percentages: In an attempt to help clarify the bubble picture even more, I have added “at-large odds” to each team below. All of the teams I have “locked” in have a 90% chance of playing in the NCAA Tournament or higher. Basically, teams with a percentage higher than 50% are probably on the good side of the bubble picture right now. Teams below 50% are probably on the wrong side of the bubble picture right now. Teams with a 50% chance of being in the Tournament basically have a coin-flip chance of getting in.  You might see me refer to teams with a percentage of 70% or higher as “should be ins,” referring to teams that should make the field.

• Odds Improving This Week: Georgetown (now a lock), North Carolina, Kansas State (now a lock), Minnesota (now a lock), Colorado State, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Air Force
• Odds Decreasing This Week: Florida State, Villanova, Temple, Arizona State, Colorado, Illinois

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF FEBRUARY 3, 2013

ACC: Three Locks, Four Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

ACC Overview: Miami continues to lead the ACC after a late basket pushed the Hurricanes over N. C. State on Saturday. Duke played its best game without Ryan Kelly in its blowout victory against Florida State. Both of those teams are clear locks for the NCAA Tournament. N. C. State remains in the lock column despite the loss.  This may end up being a four bid conference. North Carolina (15-6, 5-3; RPI: 31): North Carolina has one great win (over UNLV) and two mediocre ones (Florida State, Maryland), but bad losses against Texas and Virginia are not helping the Tar Heels’ resume. Losing to the under .500 Longhorns by 18 points is inexplicable. The next four games are going to decide the Tar Heels’ fate. First, a game against Wake Forest that would be a big blow to North Carolina’s at-large hopes. Then, back to back trips to Miami on February 9 and Duke on February 13.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 75% Maryland (16-6, 4-5; RPI: 60): Maryland has not played well in ACC play and it might end up costing the Terps an at-large bid. Maryland was swept by Florida State, another ACC bubble team. The Terps have also lost at Miami, at North Carolina, at Duke, and at Florida State. Maryland can’t win on the road and it cannot beat good teams, which typically means NIT. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40% Virginia (15-5, 5-2; RPI: 95): After wins against Florida State and N. C. State moved the Cavaliers into at-large consideration, Virginia fell to Georgia Tech on Sunday. Virginia needs its RPI to rise quickly and losses like the one to the Yellow Jackets are not helping. Up next are winnable games against Clemson, at Maryland, and Virginia Tech. AT-LARGE ODDS: 35% Florida State (12-9, 4-4; RPI: 66): Florida State knocked off Maryland on Wednesday to pick up  a fifth win against the RPI top 50 and its second win over the Terrapins. Florida State’s resume makes it look more like a mid major than a major though. The five wins over the RPI top 100 are: BYU, Charlotte, Saint Joseph’s, Maryland (twice). Duke demolished the ‘Noles on Saturday. Chances for big wins come down to hosting Miami on Feb. 13 and Florida State still has home and away contests left with North Carolina State. AT-LARGE ODDS: 30%

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Wednesday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

1. Saint Louis‘ big victory over Butler Thursday night pushed the Billikens into the field and moved Butler — once a No. 3 seed — down to a No. 5 seed. It should be noted that the Atlantic 10’s big dogs, Butler and VCU, have struggled lately and that is probably going to end up hurting the conference as a whole on Selection Sunday.
2. At 2-6 in conference play, Illinois is now out of the field for the first time all season. Remember, this team was once 12-0 and 13-2 overall. Now it is just 15-7.  But don’t fret, Illini fans. Just last season Connecticut made the field with a sub- .500 conference record and a lot of teams have done it historically. Here’s the scary part: Only two were four games under .500 in conference.
3. This weekend’s Michigan-Indiana game probably will not help much with clarification of the No. 1 seeds. If the Wolverines win, it strengthens their margin for error the rest of the season. I am probably in the minority on this, but I feel like the No. 1 seeds are finally clear for the first time all season. With Duke struggling without Ryan Kelly, Michigan, Kansas, Florida, and Indiana are the four most worthy teams right now.

LAST FOUR IN: Saint Louis, Villanova, Indiana State, La Salle
FIRST FOUR OUT: Illinois, Wyoming, Boise State, Florida State

(full bracket after the jump)

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Joe Lunardi’s most recent Bracketology was released on January 22. While it might be a bit too early to start evaluating his selections with full confidence, there are definitely some interesting predictions he has made about the current state of things in the ACC. For one thing, he has five teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament from the conference in this mock bracket:  Duke (overall #1 seed), NC State (#3 seed), Miami (#5 seed), North Carolina (#9 seed), and Maryland (#11 seed).

There might only be 3 ACC locks for the NCAA Tournament after the regular season.

• Duke (16-2, 3-2):  If the season ended today, it would be tough to dispute Duke’s credentials as a #1 seed, considering that they are ranked #1 in the overall polls and #1 in the RPI, but without Ryan Kelly (for a still undetermined length of time), the Blue Devils are not the same team that defeated Louisville, Ohio State, and Minnesota. Regardless, barring a major collapse in the ACC (losing more than four games overall), it would be hard to see Duke losing its spot on at least one of the four top lines, though it would obviously prefer not to drop too many more so that it would be placed in the East Region (Washington, DC) instead of being shipped out to Los Angeles.
• NC State (15-4, 4-2):  NC State has probably fallen off the #3-seed line with its shocking loss to Wake Forest earlier this week. While NC State is currently ranked #16 in the RPI, they are likely to drop more in the near future (RPIForecast has the Wolfpack projected to finish #25 in the RPI). NC State’s porous defense and generally mediocre play in the ACC (aside from the Duke game), including a loss to Maryland and barely scraping by non-Tournament contenders Clemson and Boston College, finally came back to bite them in losing to a Wake Forest team that was just 9-8 prior to that game. While NC State is certainly a lock to make the NCAAs at this point, unless they can beat Duke in Cameron and/or beat Miami and have success against UNC, it is highly unlikely they will stay quite so high. If they finish 11-7 in the ACC, as projected by both Pomeroy and Sagarin, a #5 or #6 seed seems more likely, considering that NC State’s best non-conference wins are against UConn and Stanford.

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From the moment it was first rumored, the relocation of the conference tournament to Las Vegas has created quite a buzz among Pac-12 basketball fans. Adam Butler (@pachoopsAB) of PacHoops will be here every week as he offers his unique perspective along our March to Vegas.

Earlier this week, Joe Lunardi posted his updated Bracketology. Amidst the returning cries of mediocrity in the Conference of Champions, ESPN’s foremost bracketologist allotted six spots to the Pac, the second largest number amongst all conferences. This is a number that the conference hasn’t sent dancing since 2009. In his projected field he’s got Arizona as the highest Pac seed (#3) and Stanford the lowest (a play-in #12). UCLA is a declining #12, Colorado a solid #7 (second highest seed), Cal an improving #9, and Oregon a solid #10. That, indeed, is six teams dancing. This, indeed, is December; but what else are we going to talk about during exams week? There’s a lot of season remaining to resume boost but it’s good to see six Pac teams projected to dance (I fully understand the arbitrary nature of December brackets). It’s certainly a different look from last season’s actual bracket in which just two teams danced; a page I like to think the conference has turned. Or have they?

Arizona Presently Leads The Way Among Pac-12 Teams, But Even They Don’t Have Any Great Quality Wins. Yet. (Casey Sapio, USA Today)

Percy Allen proposed a similar question earlier this month when he brought up the issue that, once again, the Pac-12 is struggling against ranked opponents. He makes the argument against SOS, RPI, and other acronyms for tried and true Wins. A concept I rather love. So Allen harps on the conference’s win-loss record against ranked opponents; a record the Pac has run to 2-16 this year. An unimpressive stat to be sure and one that cannot bode well in the eyes of a selection committee tasked with selecting the 37 most eligible bachelors. The conference’s collective work would not seem to be deserving of significant (say… six?) invitations. He is quick to point out that there are remaining games against ranked opponents (four, highlighted by Saturday’s Arizona-Florida game); a fleeting effort to bolster that conference win-loss record against ranked opponents. But for what? Will Colorado not dance because USC over-scheduled and went oh-for-the-season against ranked opponents? Could Oregon wind up a #10 seed but not a #8 because Stanford struggled at the Battle 4 Atlantis? Not necessarily. A team’s success helps the conference, giving everyone a chance to play a better opponent. But they’re flounderings? Well those can only hurt if you lose to them in which case what’s it even matter if the conference is undefeated or defeated against ranked opponents? The name of the game, as Allen agrees, is winning.

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Well, it’s all over. After a fantastic ACC Tournament (especially the final two days) the results are in with the conference getting the expected five bids. But before we move on to bracket analysis it’s time to think about the last couple of days.

1. Keeping It Heel: A lot of people recently have been making a big deal out of Kendall Marshall‘s minutes (he’s averaging 36 a game recently). And while it’s true that Roy Williams normally doesn’t like to play his guys more than around 30 minutes, Marshall is an exception for multiple reasons: (1) since Dexter Strickland’s injury there’s a big drop-off from him to his reserve, Stilman White; (2) the speed of his game comes from his passing, not his legs; and (3) he’s not particularly foul-prone. The Tar Heels need Marshall, and while a little more rest might be ideal, he didn’t look gassed at the end of the Florida State game yesterday (his third game in as many days).
2. Raleigh News & Observer: JP Giglio checks in with his recount of the officiating controversy from Saturday’s North Carolina – NC State matchup, including recounting the brief Twitter exchange between Marshall and Alex Johnson (who tried to draw the charge on Marshall’s game-winning shot). NC State conspiracy fans will blame Brian Dorsey: Dorsey worked the controversial game where Karl Hess tossed Chris Corchiani and Tom Gugliotta; he called four of CJ Leslie’s five fouls; and he had the best angle of Marshall’s go-ahead layup with 10  seconds left.
3. Shelby Star: Leonard Hamilton and Terry Whisnant (a freshman guard averaging around eight minutes and two points a game) are the first Gaston County natives to win an ACC Tournament since 1987. Almost everyone talks about the big firsts (first time Florida State has ever won, first African-American coach to win, first team not Duke or North Carolina since 2004, etc.), but sometimes it’s cool to get a look at local emphasis. Gaston County started its ACC Tournament play strong behind Phil Ford and North Carolina, winning twice in the late 1970s, but the small North Carolina county’s conference postseason success has been dormant for the last 30+ years.
4. Orlando Sentinel: Welcome to the Florida State bandwagon everyone (I’m going to pretend I’ve been on it all year, ignoring the short stretch of games between the Clemson beatdown and blowout of North Carolina)! Now the question is can the Seminoles reach their second Final Four (the first came in 1972)… Dick Vitale and Digger Phelps both initially slotted Hamilton’s squad into the final weekend last night.
5. Independent Weekly: This article is a little dated (it was written after the ACC Tournament semifinals), but I love the author’s prose. I also think Adam Sobsey makes a good point that Duke was missing two key offensive pieces in Ryan Kelly (injured) and Andre Dawkins (AWOL). Dawkins has a history of fading down the stretch of the season, but Duke needs him to find his stroke for the NCAA tournament, or its potent three-point attack will be hurting.

EXTRA: A big congrats to Patrick Stevens of D1SCOURSE, who predicted one of the best brackets of the 115 tallied by The Bracket Project. Stevens’ bracket correctly identified 67 of the 68 members of the field, correctly seeded 38 of the 68 teams and only missed the seed by one of 64 of the teams. That’s incredible (for comparison Joe Lunardi got 67/35/61, Andy Glockner got 65/35/56 and Jerry Palm got 66/36/59).

VIDEO EXTRA: Thanks to @RnR_NCSU for this classic mashup of NC State’s selection reaction with Maury.

Truthfully, I don’t know why Miami suspended Durand Scott. The Hurricanes already took a big gamble allowing DeQuan Jones to play: why not take another with Scott? Assuming the Yahoo! Sports allegations are true (the NCAA investigation is ongoing), Miami is forfeiting nearly all of its wins from this year. Obviously, I’m not privy to insider details, but if you’re going to let one athlete under investigation play, why not let another–significantly more valuable–student-athlete play?

Durand Scott Was Missed In Miami's Loss to Florida State.

Speaking of the Hurricanes, they may be in trouble. I still think they’re in if they split with NC State but they didn’t, and the bracketology consensus appears to have the Hurricanes in the “Last Four Out” group. What’s funny is I think Miami’s profile is as good or better than NC State’s right now. Frankly I think the profile is better than Virginia’s. Depending on how the Selection Committee views Reggie Johnson‘s injury, there are three feathers Miami can put into its cap:

1. No bad nonconference losses. Seriously, Miami’s worst loss was an overtime loss at Ole Miss. The Black Bears aren’t banging down the door of the NCAA tournament, but they’re just outside of the RPI Top-50. The Hurricanes also lost a tough one to bubble team West Virginia on the road. In conference the loss to Maryland hurts, but that’s one bad loss to Virginia’s three.
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Over the next week we will be taking a look at the ACC teams whose names should be called on Selection Sunday. The series started with Duke and North Carolina.

How do you judge Florida State? The Seminoles own two outstanding wins. Their 33-point win against North Carolina may be the most impressive win for anyone of the year. Beating Duke in Durham is nearly as impressive. Florida State’s other good wins are against Virginia and Miami. But Florida State also lost to Princeton. It also took a 20-point beating at Clemson to open ACC play and somehow lost at Boston College. The rest of the Seminoles’ losses came to likely NCAA Tournament teams (Harvard, Connecticut, Michigan State, Florida, Duke and Miami).

Michael Snaer Is Stepping Up His Senior Season.

Obviously, the Seminoles are dancing. They also still have a road game against Virginia and a rubber match against Clemson to improve their resume. As of right now I agree with the masses and think Florida State is in the #5 to #6 seed range. (That link is to the Bracket Project’s Bracket Matrix, which takes 95 brackets into account before compiling the consensus S-curve.) There are legitimate arguments for seeding Leonard Hamilton’s team anywhere from #4 to #8 depending on how much you value non-conference play.

One important thing to remember is that Ian Miller didn’t play in the first semester. He’s one of the team’s better offensive players, averaging double figures per game. Combine Miller’s performance with Michael Snaer finally realizing his McDonald’s All-American hype in conference play, and there’s a reason the Seminoles look so different in 2012. Projecting Florida State’s success in March is more difficult than assessing the proper seed. This is a team that could go to the Sweet Sixteen (or beyond) if shots are falling. It’s also a team that could get upset in the first round if shots aren’t falling. We know the defense will be there (though the team’s struggles defending smaller line-ups during the last two games give some pause); but how far can Snaer and company carry the offense?

Over the next week we will be taking a look at the ACC teams whose names should be called on Selection Sunday. The series started yesterday with Duke.

Unlike Duke, though, the eye test is mostly kind to North Carolina. When the Tar Heels are firing on all cylinders, look out. There’s a reason this team lost by one at Kentucky (and had several chances to win the game). Only Kentucky can match North Carolina’s talent, and no team can match its frontcourt depth. But for whatever reason the Tar Heels don’t bring their A-game every night.

Tyler Zeller, ACC Player of the Year frontrunner, Needs to Demand the Ball (AP Photo/G. Broome)

It’s not from a lack of effort or preparation. There are just stretches when the Tar Heels become ineffective for whatever reason. I’ve seen people hypothesize it’s because Roy Williams uses his bench too early and too often. That may be true, but the problems seem to start when the team starts looking for jumpers instead of running the offense inside-out. North Carolina has four losses: against (basically at) UNLV, at Kentucky (by one), at Florida State and against Duke. The UNLV game featured a very good, fired-up team that hit every shot it took; the Kentucky game is the closest anyone has come to knocking the one-loss Wildcats off at home in a long time. That leaves the Florida State beatdown and Duke collapse.

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