1. We’re getting closer to the NCAA making a decision on how to handle the four PiGs, and Gene Smith, chairman of the NCAA D1 Basketball Committee, is already giving it a good deal of thought.  His preference is to have the lowest RPI conference champions make up the four PiGs, but he sounds open to the at-large idea as well (let’s hope so!).  He isn’t sure how the rest of the committee feels at this point.  One interesting piece of news from the article is that highly successful  play-in game holder Dayton may be on the chopping block as the site for the four games.  Indianapolis — home of the NCAA –has a substantial amount of support for the move, according to Smith.  Interesting.
2. The Big 12 is dusting itself off and getting back to the business of running a power conference with its remaining ten member institutions.  Should the Big 12 decide to expand back to, you know, twelve teams again, Mike DeCourcy recommends adding Memphis and UNLV to its mix.  From a basketball perspective, this would undoubtedly make an already nasty conference even stronger.
3. Utah’s Jim Boylen is doing cartwheels about the recruiting advantages that he can use now as a member of the realigned Pac-10.  There’s no question that joining the west coast league will help the Ute program in recruiting, but we’re still unsure about how successful the program will be simply by moving “up” in conference pedigree.  It’ll be interesting to watch this.
4. Luke Winn’s report on incoming stud recruit Harrison Barnes at UNC: he “could be the smoothest scoring forward to hit college hoops since [Kevin] Durant.”  High, high praise.
5. The Knight Commission’s report last week revealing the stratospheric rise of spending on sports per athlete (now $85k per athlete annually vs. $13k per normal student) shows quite clearly just how far down the path of big-money sports we’ve already gone.  There really is no turning back now, and recommendations such as the Commission’s to tie NCAA postseason eligibility to graduation rates (suggested: 50%) will only further cement the huge disconnect between these moneymaking programs and the academic mission of their institutions.  The only viable endgame to this situation is a complete separation of these huge dollar programs from the NCAA — it seems that there can be no other answer.  The question is when?

Andrew Murawa is the RTC correspondent for the Pac-10 and Mountain West conferences and an occasional contributor.

With the news on Thursday that Utah has received and accepted the invitation to become the 12^th member of the Pac-10, it looks like the college sports realignment apocalypse has been averted for the summer. There may be further movement on down the line, but all signs point to a relative period of calm after weeks of frantic scrambling from all corners of the country. While it was a pale substitute for actual on-court play, we did have plenty of intrigue and suspense, action and strategy, and winners and losers. Now it’s just a matter of sorting out who was what.

The Greatest and Still Champion

Texas

A Lot to Be Happy about in Austin These Days

Texas definitely fits in the “winner” category, but I think lumping them in with these other schmucks below would be selling them short. And I’m sure they would agree. The Longhorns played this about as well as could be played, and they got everything they wanted out of it. The Big 12 keeps their television deal with ESPN (which doesn’t expire until 2016), but only has to share the proceeds among ten schools rather than twelve. The conference received a promise from Fox for a new deal when their current deal expires, with exponential increases in revenue on tap. And, on top of all that, Texas retains the right to sell local television rights and is free to explore its plans for a Longhorn television network. Bonus: in the process of trying to keep the Longhorns in the Big 12, there are reports that the neediest institutions in the bunch agreed to a plan that sent all of the money that Colorado and Nebraska owe the conference in buyout fees (reported to be somewhere between $10 and $40 million, depending on the source) to Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. So, in the span of a week, without losing any of their traditional rivals in the Big 12 South, Texas goes from generating somewhere in the $12 million range in television revenues to earning an estimated $20-25 million annually. And, that’s not even the best of it. In the process, it became painfully obvious that Texas is the big dog in the conference and the other schools (aside from Texas A&M) are in some manner, just riding coattails. Schools like Oklahoma and Texas Tech made it clear that they were just going to do whatever Texas did, while others, like Missouri, Kansas, Iowa State and Baylor, had their futures twisting in the wind, reliant on Texas to save them. If the Longhorns had gone to the Pac-16, they would have just been one of the sixteen there. By staying at home, they are clearly the kings of their conference.

The Winners

Texas A&M

The Aggies showed themselves as the one school in the conference that had plans of their own regardless of Texas. While Oklahoma and others were happy to just do whatever Texas decided, A&M talked to the SEC, and by all reports, actually had an offer to join that conference. But, in the end when they could have run off and forced Texas’ move west, the Aggies agreed to stick around and share in the league’s windfall, excellent news for an athletic department that was $16 million in debt, and even better for a school whose once proud football program has fallen on hard times in the past decade.

Big 12 Basketball

Without a doubt, the Big 12 became a better basketball conference overnight. Over the last nine years, both Colorado and Nebraska have had an average finish of around ninth in the conference. Nebraska has never won an NCAA tournament game. Colorado has only had two NCAA tournament berths in the last 40 years. So as far as the basketball side of the equation goes, this is addition by subtraction at its finest. As the conference makes the transition to an 18-game schedule in which each team will play a full home-and-home round-robin, they will no longer have to worry about games against the Buffs or Huskers dragging down their RPI. Every night in the conference will be tough sledding, but every team in the conference will also have a better chance to build their resume for postseason play.

Watch Out, Big East and ACC...

Chip Brown and Orangebloods.com

Chip Brown has been the point-man on conference realignment for about two weeks now. He broke the original story about Texas dragging five other Big 12 schools to the Pac-10, and when Texas blinked in the 11^th hour, it was Brown who had that story first as well, even in the face of ESPN reporting the opposite. In the process, Brown, a former writer for the Dallas Morning News, has seen his Twitter followers increase exponentially, and the profile of Orangebloods.com, a Longhorn Rivals site of which he is part owner, has jumped from something that was only known amongst the most attentive Longhorn fans to an important resource for those of us following this story.

Utah

The Utes received just $1.2 million in television revenue from their association with the Mountain West Conference. Presently Pac-10 schools earn somewhere in the $10-$12 million neighborhood from their television contracts, and with the Pac-10 set to negotiate a new television deal which will begin the 2011-12 season, the Utah athletic department stands to make a nice chunk of change for very little trouble.  While the basketball program is going through a rough patch presently, it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see the Utes be right in the thick of things in the Pac-10 football chase immediately.

ABC/ESPN and Fox Sports

Both networks stepped in to help save the Big 12. ABC/ESPN agreed to keep their current contract with the Big 12, allowing the ten remaining members to split the revenues that had previously been divided amongst twelve. Fox Sports also agreed to large increases in their agreement with the Big 12 which expires next offseason. If Texas had bolted for the Pac-10 along with five other Big 12 members, both ESPN and Fox Sports would have had a major bidding war on its hands for the rights to the new Pac-16 conference television deal. The breakup of the Big 12 would likely have meant other moves by the Big Ten or SEC or ACC, moves that could have resulted in their contracts needing to be reworked. In the short term, both entities probably overpay for the Big 12 rights, but they saved themselves plenty of cash in the long term.

Big Ten

While it may have appeared to be the first rat on the way out before the ship went down, Nebraska’s move to the Big Ten makes a lot of sense, at least football-wise. Adding the Huskers gives the Big Ten four iconic football programs, the ability to hold a championship game and a fanbase that will eat up anything Huskers on the Big Ten Network. And, passing on Missouri is probably the right move as well. Picking up one Big 12 team brings the Big Ten to 12 schools, and allows them to take their time with any additional expansion they may be interested in, while getting the benefits of the 12^th team. If the Big Ten chooses to pursue further expansion, it will be mostly focused on Big East teams, including the great white whale, Notre Dame.

The Losers

Missouri

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1. Santa Clara head coach Kerry Keating is requesting that his fellow coaches go “hands-free” this summer (not texting and driving) in light of a recent accident where a young girl was killed on her bicycle by such a driver.  This is something we can get on board with, and we hope that other coaches (and readers) will take it to note.  If you must text, do it while the light is red.
2. Is the Big 12 sticking at ten for the time being, or will they look at adding someone like, say, Houston?  Texas legislators are pushing for this addition, and with the unbelievable power that the state’s flagship university now holds over the conference, we’d never say never.  But honestly, we’re not really seeing this as a realistic possibility.  UT wants all that Big 12 money for themselves.
3. As for the Mountain West, they’re sticking at nine for now after adding Boise State but losing Utah in the past two weeks.  Even with the loss of Utah, this league has really started to separate itself as the top mid-major league (if you can even call it that) in both football and basketball.
4. Bill Russell and KC Jones aren’t walking through that door.  No, this isn’t a reference to the Boston Celtics but rather the San Francisco Dons, who found themselves with a two-year probation that will not include a postseason ban.  The issue was that several athletes spent their scholarship money on non-required textbooks and school supplies.  And… we’re not sure what the problem is.
5. This article is an interesting look-back at the decision Billy Donovan made three years ago to stay at Florida instead of leaving for the Orlando Magic, but it hasn’t all been peaches and cream in Gainesville, while the Magic have become one of the better teams in the NBA (predictable three years ago given the Dwight Howard factor).  Many folks have Florida with all five starters returning as a top 10-15 squad next season, but this particular college-to-pro situation might have actually worked out.

1. Kansas AD Lew Perkins unveiled the secrets behind the curtain when he explained yesterday that the five Big 12 schools facing life outside the BCS — KU, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State and Baylor — came up with a ‘business plan’ to keep the Texas and Oklahoma schools from bailing on them to the Pac-10.  This business plan essentially amounts to these five schools paying for the privilege of having Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in their conference.  Whether the subsidy will come from their NCAA Tournament revenue or penalties levied against Colorado and Nebraska for leaving is unclear, but what is absolutely certain is that the dollars will end up in Austin, College Station, Stillwater and Norman.  Just.  Wow.
2. Jerry Jones has done some amazing things in his lifetime, so if anyone else was pitching the idea of adding Arkansas and Notre Dame to the newfangled Big 12, we’d immediately dismiss the idea.  With the billionaire Cowboys owner saying it, we’ll at least entertain the thought for fifteen seconds or so.  For what it’s worth, Arkansas AD Jeff Long said that the Hawgs have “no interest” in leaving the SEC.  And why would they?  They are making major bank where they are, and the Big 12 is still going to be fraught with uncertainty given its ridiculous revenue ‘sharing’ agreement.
3. Here’s a good recap of Tom Izzo reactions from around the blogosphere over at BiaH.  Izzo as professional coach just doesn’t feel right.  We like this move to stay in East Lansing.
4. An interview with one of the best in the biz, Jay Bilas, for your lazy-day summer reading.
5. We enjoyed this post by Braves & Birds, an Atlanta-area sports blog, but we need to make one clarification: if you add up the value of all of the separate conference television contracts as well as the BCS bowl game contracts, it still does not approach what the NCAA Tournament brings in an average year (~$700-$800M) from its television deal.  The problem isn’t revenue in college basketball; it’s where the revenue goes.  Since the NCAA Tournament collects all the money from CBS/Turner up front and metes it out to the schools and conferences as it sees fit while all the college football dollars go directly to the conferences/schools themselves, it’s easy to see why the gridiron game is the driver here.  It also explains why there won’t be a college football playoff anytime soon as administered by the NCAA — the big-ticket schools simply don’t want to share that revenue with anyone else.

As expected, the Pac-10 formally extended an invitation to the University of Utah this afternoon, sending shivers of teetotaling anticipation up and down the Wasatch Range for Utah trustees to sign the deal before Texas hears a new pitch and changes its mind again.  The Board of Trustees will meet on Thursday and a press conference is scheduled to announced the move at 1 pm MT tomorrow afternoon, signifying that Utah might end up being the biggest winner in this entire conference realignment process.  The Salt Lake Tribune reports that the school earned only $1.2M in television revenue from the Mountain West last year, while the Pac-10 under its previous television deal distributed $8-$10M each to its members.  The expectation is that Utah could with this move theoretically be looking at ten times as much revenue than it was previously earning , which probably explains why fruit baskets from SLC to Austin were in rapid transit this week and also why the trustees are falling all over themselves to get this thing confirmed. 

Utah Will Do Anything to Make This Happen

This addition (remember, this was the expected move prior to all the Big 12 implosion nonsense of the past few weeks) will with Denver (#18) and Salt Lake City (#31) give the Pac-10 footprint nine of the top 31 television markets in the country starting in 2011-12, more than any other major conference.  While Commissioner Larry Scott would have mightily preferred to add the lucrative Texas markets to his conference (Dallas and Houston are both in the top ten), these two additions ensure that the new Pac-12 will dominate college athletics in both the Mountain and Pacific time zones for the foreseeable future.

Speaking of dominance, how will the addition of Utah impact Pac-10 basketball?  Unlike former Big 12 bottom-feeder Colorado, Utah actually has a strong tradition of hoops excellence that it can bring to bear in its new league.  The Utes had a phenomenal program from 1989-2004 under Rick Majerus, going to ten NCAA Tournaments and the title game in 1998, but in recent years they’ve been passed by local schools BYU and Utah State for hardwood superiority in the region.  The Beehive State, however, is generally very supportive of basketball, and with the new recruiting inroads that Pac-10 membership will afford Jim Boylen’s team, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for Utah to once again surge forward as a consistently competitive basketball program in coming seasons. 

1. Yesterday’s big realignment news was that if you can believe what Craig Thompson, the Commissioner of the Mountain West, has to say, the Pac-11 has yet to contact Utah about possibly becoming the twelfth member of that league.  Don’t worry, Mr. Thompson.  They will on Wednesday.
2. As for this new 12-team conference, how will the divisions be configured?  Dividing them up into two six-team divisions by geography (North/South) makes sense, but one idea that has some alternative support is the so-called “zipper” format in football (with rivals separated) and a three-division format in basketball.  Wazzu blog CougCenter explains these two ideas.
3. So… about the new Big 12/10.  We wrote yesterday that we think the league will become a much stronger basketball conference as a result of the loss of bottom-feeders Nebraska and Colorado, but we’re not the only ones who thinks that handing the keys to the conference almost completely over to Texas will result in storm clouds again a few years down the road.  The Pac-11 was smart to not allow UT to wield such disproportionate influence in its league for fear of upsetting the others members — how will this ultimately play in the rest of the Big 12/10 when the collective back-slapping and good tidings die down?
4. Remember Brad Stevens?  He says that the newfound fame that his Butler program and he personally enjoyed throughout March and April of this year is finally dying down.  Undoubtedly true, but it’ll pick back up again in December when people realize that Butler is 11-0 and in the top 10 again.
5. We wondered aloud about Washington’s Abdul Gaddy all of last season.  For a player rated out of high school as the second-best point guard behind John Wall, his season averages of 3.9 PPG and 2.2 APG on 41% shooting (15% from three) are completely ridiculous.  He’s playing in the U-18 men’s national team this week and Percy Allen of the Seattle Times caught up with him.  The problem?  Missing his swagger, apparently (translation: thinking he was better than he actually was).

Now that the smoke has finally settled from the near-apocalyptic blowup of one of the nation’s most powerful conferences in the money sports, we can sift through the wreckage and take a gander at what it all means to college basketball.  Yesterday we discussed the numerous possibilities that may still exist in the pipeline as more strategic moves are considered and ultimately made, but a wholesale re-working of the collegiate map in the nation’s breadbasket is not coming (at least not this year).

Instead, we’re left with a Big 12 conference that suddenly looks much stronger in the sport of basketball than it has since the good ol’ Big 8 days of yore.  Consider that in the last seven years of Big 12 conference play and in twelve of the fourteen years of its existence as a twelve-team league, BOTH of now-departed Nebraska and Colorado failed to make the NCAA Tournament.  In fact, Colorado only made the Big Dance twice (1997 and 2003) over that period, while the moribund Huskers only took part once (1998).  The two teams combined for a single NCAA win (CU in 1997) in that span, and generally neither school did much to scare the likes of Kansas, Mizzou, Texas or Oklahoma on the recruiting trail or in the arena (Nebraska averaged 6.4 wins in the Big 12 on an annual basis, while the Buffs averaged an even paltrier 6.2 wins per season).  Put simply, these are two of the worst BCS-level basketball programs in America, and now the Big 12 has fortuitously shed themselves of their depressing RPIs and general albatross-ness.

Imagine how much better the SEC’s profile would look if it could drop Auburn and Georgia in basketball, or if the ACC could do likewise with NC State and Miami (FL).  Suddenly, those #7 and #8 teams fighting for NCAA attention look stronger because their RPIs are not being dragged down by multiple games (and an occasional loss) with the bottom-feeders.  Missouri Governor Jay Nixon already gets it:

Nixon suggested that the loss of Colorado and Nebraska might be good for MU and the rest of the conference, at least in one sport.  “When you drop the two weakest basketball programs in Colorado and Nebraska, it makes the conference better,” Nixon said. “Our RPI will improve.”

Consider what’s left.  Kansas is a top five historical program who will always be good.  Texas is currently a top ten program with the resources and recruiting base to remain there for years to come.  Missouri has a long tradition of excellent basketball and will continue to excel under Mike Anderson.  Texas A&M will play tough-minded defensive basketball for Mark Turgeon and can also tap into the recruiting riches of the Lone Star State.  Ditto for Baylor and Scott Drew.  Oklahoma State and Oklahoma have strong traditions as well, and will continue to get good players and make NCAA Tournaments.  Frank Martin’s Kansas State is on the verge of becoming a powerhouse of its own to rival KU and Mizzou in their backyards.  The only two dogs of the group are at Iowa State, who hasn’t been able to get its act together since Larry Eustachy was in town, and Texas Tech, who is clearly still feeling the effects of the Bob Knight era.  But eight of ten good to great programs is not freakin’ bad, folks.

You Have to Resurrect Tyronn Lue to Find a Good Nebraska Hoops Team

Last season the Big 12 already had the best conference RPI in the land by a slight margin over the Big East.  If we remove CU and UN from the mix, the Big 12’s conference RPI would have risen by a full 0.14 ratings points, making it quite clearly the strongest league in 2009-10.  Seven teams already got into the Dance last year — with the additional slots that the 68-team Tournament will now provide, it is conceivable that the Big 12 could see eight of its ten teams advancing to the NCAAs in a particularly strong year.  While all of these moves were driven by the pigskin dollars, it may be that the biggest beneficiary in terms of success on the playing surface are the remaining basketball programs.   

1. In case you haven’t heard, the Big 12 is now a ten-team conference and Texas will earn more money than God for the woodshedding that it pulled on the rest of its conference peers on Monday.  Seriously, we’re a fan of keeping this conference together, but we don’t want to hear any whining from the Missouris and Kansas States of the world when they see the dollar differential that they’re receiving versus the Horns AND THEIR OWN PRIVATE TV NETWORK on an annual basis.  Our man on the matter Andrew Murawa once again puts it all into perspective for us in a coherent, logical fashion.
2. No news is good news for Michigan State on the Tom Izzo front, as he had nothing to say when questioned by a camper about his plans at his summer basketball camp on Monday.  If the report that Izzo and LeBron James have yet to speak is true, though, this might seem to indicate that James is noncommittal about his plans for next season and clarity on that front is unlikely to factor into Izzo’s final decision.
3. Speaking of Izzo, assuming he ultimately leaves Michigan State for the Cavs, how much revenue could that end up costing the university on an annual basis?  This article takes a shot at trying to piece that together.
4. We missed this news late last week as a result of the USC sanctions and the conference realignment madness, but it’s worth noting that Portland State was banned from 2011 postseason play because of a very poor APR (Academic Progress Rate) score.  Its 865 score from the academic years 2005-09 is far below the national average of 940 — is it coincidental that the Vikings’ two best seasons (Big Sky champs) were in 2007-08 and 2008-09?
5. Luke Winn visited CP3’s summer camp that features many top college stars, including UNC’s Harrison Barnes, Duke’s Seth Curry and Washington Isaiah Thomas.  The story about how Thomas and the other UW players were completely fooled by former recruit Terrence Jones’ decision to go to Kentucky over Washington at the last minute was very interesting — Thomas suggested that the Wildcats better watch out in November in Maui if the two teams face each other.

Andrew Murawa is the RTC correspondent for the Pac-10 and the Mountain West conferences and an occasional contributor.

The Big 12 went all the way to the brink, peered over the other side into non-existence, and then veered away from the white light at the last minute. The patient is now resting comfortably in Austin, although it has lost a little weight.

After last week’s rumors that the University of Texas was all but signed up to head to the Pac-10, bringing Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and potentially Texas A&M or Kansas along for the ride, Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe pulled off perhaps the biggest longshot in the college sports year, reportedly in conjunction with an influential group of concerned citizens both within and outside of the world of college athletics, pulling Texas back from the brink with promises of SEC-type money and an ability for the Longhorns to start their own television network, the revenues of which they’ll be able to keep all for themselves. And, just as a little bonus, the remaining ten Big 12 schools (yes, it appears that for the near future, the Big 12 will have ten schools and the Big Ten twelve) will get to split the nearly $20 million in buyout penalties that Colorado and Nebraska must pay for leaving the conference. Maybe Christian Laettner’s shot and Doug Flutie’s pass were more exciting to watch, but Beebe’s last chance attempt at holding the Big 12 together will have a much larger long-term impact on the college sports landscape.

The Most Powerful Athletic Program in College Sports

Texas

The biggest winner here is Texas, on several fronts. According to Beebe’s projections, the Big 12’s next television deal coupled with projected income from a Longhorn television network could provide the university with between $20-$25 million annually, a marked increase from the estimated $10-$11 million they are currently generating.  And, the Longhorns get to remain in a conference with its historic rivals, many of whom were either in the position a few days ago of  doing whatever Texas decided it was going to do, or being left behind if Texas did leave. While the Big 12 was already painted as Texas and the 11 dwarfs before the last week, that image has been cemented in everyone’s minds now. Clearly that will be just another useful recruiting tool for Texas athletics.

Texas A&M

The Aggies come across as the only school in the Big 12 whose leaders were able to think of themselves in a way other than their relationship to Texas. If Texas had made the decision to head west, A&M was already well on its way to paving its own road to the SEC. Whereas before this mess, most would have pointed at Oklahoma or maybe Nebraska as the strong number two program to the Longhorn Ace, Texas A&M went a long way this week toward establishing their own identity. And then, of course, at the last minute the Aggies blinked. Fortunately for them, big daddy Texas still had their backs.

The Little Twelve

So what happens to the conference as a whole? It gets significantly richer, while being in the excellent position of dividing up a bigger pie up into fewer pieces. Beebe’s number should certainly be retired, and any time that he shows up at a Big 12 sporting event for the rest of his lifetime, they should roll out the red carpet for him, sit him down at a nice courtside throne and pay off a few cheerleaders to fan him with feathers and feed him grapes. Iowa State in particular was certainly on the verge of relegation to a mid-major program with Baylor likely not far behind. Missouri’s administrators, who not long ago talked of their involvement in the Big 12 in the past tense, have been saved as well from peddling their wares on the street corner. Kansas and its pre-eminent basketball program has been spared the indignity of either playing out of region in the Big East or asking for shelter from the Mountain West. And all these longtime rivals (or at least most of them) get to continue beating each other up on the playing field. Without a doubt, the 2010-11 season has just taken on some added significance.

Beyond all that, there are the details. First, is this league still the Big 12? We’ve put up with the Big Eleven still calling themselves the Big Ten if only because they were sorta old and quaint, perhaps a little senile, and who could blame them if they couldn’t count anymore. Sure the Atlantic 10 has 14 members, but the Atlantic 14 sounds like a really bad sequel to Ocean’s Eleven. But we really can’t have the Big 12 operating with ten members (assuming they actually stay at ten – more on that in a second), still calling itself the Big 12, can we? The easy solution is to just have the Big Ten and Big 12 swap logos, but something tells me we’re stuck with these names.

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More on this later this evening from our man out west, but ESPN and several other outlets are now reporting that Texas (and evidently Texas A&M, as well) has officially turned down the Pac-10 and will stay in the Big 12, a conference whose headquarters just outside of Dallas had vultures circling over it as recently as yesterday.

Now that Texas is staying, it seems like conference realignment has been a lot of flirting and -- as far as college hoops fans are concerned -- minimal action of any importance.

If the current reports are true, with Nebraska headed to the Big Ten, Colorado moving to the Pac-10, and Boise State bolting to the Mountain West, the biggest college basketball-relevant change of conference might be — who would have guessed? — Utah, expected to join the Pac-10 at any moment.  Indeed, across all sports, it might just be the case that all of this conference realignment talk and the predicted death of leagues might end up just being like a bachelorette party that got a little out of hand:  some quick decisions that led to a couple of broken relationships, and some very serious flirting by the others that almost led somewhere dangerous.  But, in the end, everyone wound up back home where they belong.