Predicted finish: 7th

2010-11 Record: 20-14, 6-10 (9th, Big 12)

Head coach: Travis Ford, 4th season

Key losses: G Ray Penn (5.9 PPG), F Marshall Moses (14.1 PPG), F Matt Pilgrim (5.4 PPG)

OSU Needs a Big Year from Freshman LeBryan Nash

The Stars: Although he has not played a single minute of college basketball, freshman phenom LeBryan Nash might already be the best player on Oklahoma State’s team. At 6’7”, the wing can do just about anything on a basketball court. Coach Travis Ford says Nash may even see time as a point-forward, simply because he’s such a dynamic player with the basketball. An obvious contender for Freshman of the Year honors both in the Big 12 and nationally, the Cowboys will rely on Nash quite a bit to lead them in the scoring department.

The Veterans: Since arriving in Stillwater as a freshman in 2008-09, Keiton Page has played important minutes for Ford during the past three seasons. With a 5’9” frame and a young face, Page doesn’t always seem to fit in on the basketball court, but he’s grown into a productive starter at guard. He’s known primarily for his shooting ability, but he added a new element to his game last year by increasing his free throw attempts and getting to the basket. Problem is, Page didn’t shoot very well from beyond the arc in 2010-11 (30.4 percent), so that number has to improve for him to have a standout senior season.

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1. The pre-season Naismith Award list was released Monday by the Atlanta Tip-Off Club’s Board of Selectors, and it includes five Big 12 players: Perry Jones (Baylor), Quincy Miller (Baylor), Khris Middleton (Texas A&M), Marcus Denmon (Missouri), and Thomas Robinson (Kansas). All five are more than deserving to make the list, and they’ll all contend for Player of the Year honors in the Big 12, at the very least. The committee left off a couple of notable names, though. If Miller can get a vote, then why can’t Oklahoma State’s LeBryan Nash? In the end, of course, it’s all semantics. The list will be narrowed to the top 30 players in February.
2. It looks as though the Big 12 will continue to confuse most Americans by remaining at 10 teams for the 2012-13 season. You’d think it would make a little more sense for a league called the Big 12 to have, you know, 12 teams, but OU president David Boren said Monday that no expansion will occur next season. However, here’s a curveball: After the 2012-13 season, Boren said the league may have an opportunity to return to 12 teams. The math would finally align, and the world would once again be normal. But does that mean that realignment apocalypse isn’t over yet? We may have to run through this same drill in two years.
3. All anyone ever wants to talk about at Missouri is how much the move to the SEC will benefit the school financially. However, there could be some related money troubles on the horizon. According to the Associated Press, MU may need to pay $26 million in exit fees to leave the Big 12. Plus, upon joining the SEC, Missouri may be expected to upgrade its facilities and scholarships to stay competitive. Gov. Jay Nixon wouldn’t comment on the issue, but the state’s budget chairman said he hasn’t heard back from MU officials as to how they plan to pay for the move.
4. Speaking of Missouri’s move… Kansas isn’t too happy about the potential death of the Border War. Just take a glance at some of the comments from the Kansas camp. Bill Self has said that KU has “absolutely no obligation whatsoever to play Missouri in basketball. None.” And football coach Turner Gill echoed that statement, saying he does not see the annual game on the gridiron in Kansas City continuing past this season. After a century of battles — both literally and figuratively, as it does of course date back to skirmishes during the Civil War — it’s hard to accept that Kansas may end the Border War just like that. Self also said “the majority of Kansas fans don’t give a flip about playing Missouri,” but we’re not so convinced that’s true, either. From both perspectives, the end of the rivalry would be a tragedy. Let’s hope clearer heads eventually prevail — college basketball is better when the Border War game continues.
5. Sticking with Kansas here, ESPN.com’s Eamonn Brennan had a nice write-up about the importance of Jayhawk guard Tyshawn Taylor. It’s no secret he’s struggled with consistency during his time in Lawrence, but now it’s time for him to step up as the leader of this squad along with Thomas Robinson. Self has said that Taylor has “matured so much,” and that would be terrific news for a KU team looking to win its eighth straight Big 12 title. Without a fine performance from Taylor this season, Kansas cannot win. It’s as simple as that.

As thousands of fans chanted “M-I-Z, S-E-C” during the SEC’s official welcoming reception at the University of Missouri on Sunday afternoon, it was apparent that the MU crowd had no qualms with leaving the Big 12 behind. The Tigers are off to the SEC — league commissioner Mike Slive certainly sounded happy about it, as did MU chancellor Brady Deaton. But what about the Big 12 offices? We’re guessing the reaction isn’t quite as celebratory there.

Missouri Fans Were Excited to Leave the Big 12 Today

Yes, the league has moved on. Despite its legal situation with the Big East, West Virginia looks like a good bet to replace Missouri at some point, and the Mountaineers’ athletics are more than comparable to MU’s. However, losing Missouri is still a blow to the league both geographically and academically. Columbia, Missouri, is in the heart of Big 12 country; Morgantown, West Virginia, not so much. It’s a long plane ride out there, that’s for sure. You could even use the term “misfit.” Academically, MU is ranked significantly higher than West Virginia in various college publications. MU is an AAU member; West Virginia is not.

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Chuck Neinas is the commissioner of the Big 12 Conference. The top dog. When he speaks, people listen. And we assume that his statements are the absolute truth.

"Neinas, Neinas, Neinas..." Says the Big 12 (AP/R. Matay)

So when Neinas said at a welcoming reception for West Virginia on Tuesday that the Mountaineers could only join his league if they did so by the 2012-13 season, it raised questions about the school’s ongoing lawsuit with the Big East. West Virginia wants to break its 27-month notification rule with the Big East, but the league isn’t backing down from the terms of its contract with the school. Without getting into all the legal mumbo-jumbo, the point is that WVU isn’t a shoe-in to join the Big 12 next summer. And Neinas said on Tuesday that West Virginia’s failure to join in 2012 would force the league to adjust.

“We needed a 10th member next season to fulfill our TV commitments. There’s an inventory that goes with a contract for TV, so we’ve got to be able to do that.”

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1. The New York Times reported on Monday that West Virginia is suing the Big East so that they may join the Big 12 for the 2012-13 athletic calendar. The schools cites that the Big East “breached its fiduciary duty by failing to maintain a balance between football-playing and nonfootball members.” Conference realignment has shown the dark side of college athletics, whether it be through lawsuits, political interventions, or questionable financial moves. It is funny to me, however, that somebody would sue somebody else just to join a conference that nearly everyone has written off as a “sinking ship.”
2. The San Jose Mercury News has an article determining the winners and losers of conference realignment thus far. They list Big 12 under the “winners” category, a decision that would have been highly criticized a month ago. The article goes on to explain that other than Cornhusker football, Nebraska and Colorado did not bring much to the Big 12, especially in terms of basketball. This is what is known as “addition by subtraction.”
3. In more Mountaineer news, the West Virginia Metro News discusses what does and what should excite West Virginia fans the most about joining the Big 12. It does not focus strictly on basketball, but it does bring up some great benefits of being a member of the Big 12, such as well-renowned opposing coaches, on-campus basketball arenas, and my personal favorite, road trips to Austin, Texas.
4. I’ll admit it, I’m a sports economics nerd. That’s why I’m including this Yahoo! Sports article. It reveals the rankings of average game attendance per conference, and leading the list is the Big Ten with 12,836 fans per game last season. The Big 12 ranks fourth, behind the Big Ten, Big East, and the SEC, with 10,716 fans per game. These numbers might surprise you, but remember that the Big 12’s attendance leader is Kansas with 16,436 fans per game at Allen Fieldhouse which represents 100% capacity. The SEC has arenas like Rupp Arena and Thompson-Boling Arena, both of which hold over 20,000 fans, while the Big East has the Carrier Dome, which has a 34,000+ capacity.
5. Lubbockonline.com has an article up discussing Billy Gillispie lauding of his coaching staff. Gillispie goes on to say, “I believe we’ve got as good a staff as you could ever have,” and brags on the diversity of his coaching staff’s talents. I’ve always felt like this was one of the most underrated aspects of a coaching staff, the diversity of it. It’s fine and dandy if you have four phenomenal recruiters, but when you have one guy who’s good at recruiting, one who’s great at scouting, one who cares about his players’ academic success, and one who knows how to teach the players… by meshing together under one system, that’s a recipe for a dynamic coaching staff.

Less than a month into the Big 12 microsite, you’re probably already tired of reading myself and Clark Williams ramble about realignment, injuries and a host of other topics.

Get Yourself a Listening Device and Join Us!

Well, we’ve got good news for you: now, our ramblings will now appear on a weekly podcast. This week, Clark and I informally discuss the preseason expectations of each team in the Big 12, and we air out our disagreements over Baylor‘s prospects this season. Unfortunately, we’re pretty cordial with each other. So if you think you’re about to listen to Crossfire, think again.

[buzzsprout episode=”34498″ player=”true”]

It’s been a wild 24 hours.

The Southeastern Conference announced Missouri as its newest member late Thursday night — and then it retracted that press release from its website ten minutes later. The Big 12 then officially invited West Virginia on Friday, and a news release from the conference did not mention Missouri as a member for the 2012-13 athletic season. So, what’s the deal? The Big 12 won’t claim Missouri, nor will the SEC. Looks like the Tigers are in limbo for now. Of course, don’t expect that to last long. Soon, we’ll surely hear the announcement that the SEC has added the Tigers as its 14th program. Right?

In this crazy world of realignment apocalypse, though, everything is an unknown. For now, at least, we know that WVU is a member of the Big 12 Conference starting next summer. And that means Louisville (for now) has been shut out of the league after a dispute that pitted it against the Mountaineers — a fracas that involved Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), a UL alum — who tried to block WVU from joining the league.

Bob Huggins Shouldn't Be Sad Anymore After the Big 12 Announcement

Sen. McConnell’s efforts apparently did not work as the Mountaineers have won the Big 12 sweepstakes. WVU’s president said the league is a “perfect fit” for his school, and it’s certainly a move that will help Big 12 hoops. With Missouri’s likely departure, as well as the addition of the lowly TCU program, the conference needed a team with the history and recent success to bolster its basketball profile.  WVU will make an immediate impact in this league thanks to passionate fan base and an established head coach in Bob Huggins. The transition from the Big East to the Big 12 won’t be difficult, although all the chartered flights from Morgantown several hours west may be.

The Big 12 offered the last rose to West Virginia. Sad tears are shed in Louisville’s limo while happy tears and embraces punctuate the official Big 12 press release.

Another feline in the SEC family! (Image via http://hewhowalkswithtigers.deviantart.com/)

Wait… In that press release, where’s Missouri in the list of ten Big 12 schools that’ll comprise the conference in 2012-13? Nothing official has been announced — well, nothing that wasn’t an error by a web vendor — but it appears that Mizzou has finalized its move to the Southeastern Conference. With Big 12 ex-pats Texas A&M also joining in the 2012-13 season, the pesky scheduling problem that comes with having thirteen basketball teams might have gotten easier.

We’ll update this post with any official news about Missouri to the SEC if it breaks later today. Otherwise, time for some Tiger hugs!

Last week we examined the sixty or so major programs that Vegas feels is worth offering as action to win the 2011-12 national championship. Unsurprisingly, the top several teams in the preseason Coaches Poll — North Carolina, Kentucky, Ohio State, Duke, Syracuse — generally mimic the top several teams in terms of the odds Vegas is offering. The one stunning exception to that trend is Connecticut, whom the pollsters have listed among the few teams most likely to cut the nets down in New Orleans next April, but from whom the oddsmakers still aren’t seeing much value (+2000, or a 4.8% chance, as of now).

This week we’ll take a step further into the odds and consider the probabilities that Vegas has assigned to each power conference team to win its regular season championship. These odds are by no means foolproof. In reviewing last year’s preseason tables of the same six leagues, only Pittsburgh in the Big East and Arizona in the Pac-10 were favorites that came into the money by March. The other four league favorites this time last year? Try Duke in the ACC (UNC), Baylor/Kansas State in the Big 12 (Kansas), Michigan State in the Big Ten (Ohio State), and Kentucky in the SEC (Florida). So while all of these favorites looked reasonable one year ago today, keep in mind that college basketball seasons have a tendency to work themselves out differently despite what the oddsmakers and pundits think.

Ed. note: These odds are published on The Greek as of October 27, 2011. If you’re unfamiliar with how futures odds work, +150 represents the amount of money a potential gambler would receive back if he placed a $100 wager on that team and it won.  He would, in other words, win back 1.5 times his original wager.  Those few teams sporting a negative odds notation (e.g., -175) represents a situation where someone would have to wager $175 to win back $100. Since the aggregate of futures odds are designed to add up to a figure much larger than 100% (removing the incentive to wager on every team), we’ve added a far right column normalizing the odds to a true 100% value for each conference.    

ACC

Quick Thoughts on the ACC:

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1. Hold the phone — West Virginia may not join the Big 12 after all. According to reports from The New York Times just yesterday, the Mountaineers were all but guaranteed a spot in the Big 12. Sources had said the league wanted WVU regardless of whether Missouri bolted for the SEC, and it seemed like a done deal. So what happened?
2. Louisville happened. It appears that the delay in WVU’s acceptance is all due to a sparked interest in acquiring the Cardinals. One Big 12 school administrator said it’s a direct battle between West Virginia and Louisville, and it may take days to sort out the situation. It doesn’t look like West Virginia is out of the running at all, but it’s interesting to hear that this same official said the league’s schools are also divided on the issue. Texas is rumored to have more interest in WVU, while Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Iowa State and Baylor all want Louisville. From a basketball standpoint, although West Virginia is obviously no slouch, it doesn’t have the sort of history and hoops fan base that UL does. So if your primary interest is hoops, you’ve got to be rooting for the Cardinals to edge West Virginia here.
3. For all you political junkies, one aspect of the delay with West Virginia may have to do with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), a Louisville alumnus who’d have an obvious agenda to block a WVU invitation to the Big 12. This is major speculation, of course, and it’s always dangerous to get into the political game. Still, if McConnell really were trying to vouch for his alma mater, that may make for a heck of an E:60 series.
4. The current debate may be between Louisville and West Virginia, but CBS Sports columnist Gary Parrish has a nice breakdown of the Missouri vs. West Virginia comparison. MU’s dominance of the Big Eight in the ’80s and ’90s under coach Norm Stewart may give the impression that it has more history than the Mountaineers, but remember, the Tigers never actually made a Final Four. In fact, Stewart only made two Elite Eights during that time period. And as far as the past decade goes, Parrish shows that WVU beats MU in almost every category. Replacing Missouri with the Mountaineers might not boost the Big 12’s profile in basketball considerably, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt anything.
5. Sticking with off-the-court news — since that’s pretty much all we have right now — Oklahoma has responded to a proposal for a Big 12 television network. It looks like the Sooners aren’t too happy with the news; or, at the very least, they’re just very confused as to how it would work. The Sooners already want to form their own TV network, and it’s a well-known fact that Texas already has the Longhorn Network in place. OU officials say they’re still planning to create their own network despite the Big 12’s proposal. The Big 12 Network sort of exists already, but it’s only an extension of ESPN on local affiliates. Sure, there’s a nice studio show each Saturday, but every game on the Big 12 Network looks like it was filmed in the 1970s. Any Doug Bell fans in the house? Didn’t think so.