The Big Ten Tournament gets under way Thursday, so the RTC Podcast guys invited Big Ten microsite writer Deepak Jayanti (@dee_b1g) along for the discussion. In this podblast, the trio breaks down what we see as the key storylines and possible outcomes from an event where the tourney semifinals could be as good or better than the Final Four in a few weeks. Feel free to hop around to your areas of concern using the handy outline below, and make sure to check back frequently this week as we’ll be rolling out a new podblast for each of the six major conference tourneys.

• 0:00-5:02 – Indiana Claims Outright Big 10 Title With Thrilling Win in Ann Arbor
• 5:02-8:45 – Post Season Award Discussion
• 8:45-10:25 -Brutal Big 10 Cause For Concern at the End of the Season?
• 10:25-13:30 Indiana Outright Champ, But Not Outright Favorite
• 13:30-14:55 Minnesota and Iowa Looking to Win Their Way Off the Bubble
• 14:55-17:25 Seed Possibilities for the Top Teams
• 17:25-19:05 – Dark Horse Team
• 19:05-21:26 – Tournament’s Breakout Star
• 21:26-23:23 – Player You Don’t Want to Say Goodbye to
• 22:23-25:53 – Dream Match Up
• 25:53-28:08 – Big 10 Team That Last the Longest in March/Wrap

The ACC Tournament, 12-team edition, gets under way tomorrow, so the RTC Podcast guys invited ACC microsite writer Matt Patton (@rise_and_fire) along for the discussion. In this podblast, we question whether this is simply a coronation for Coach K en route to his 14th ACC crown (most ever), or if teams like Miami (FL), Virginia and/or North Carolina can cause the Blue Devils problems. Feel free to hop around to your areas of concern using the handy outline below, and make sure to check back frequently this week as we’ll be rolling out a new podblast for each of the six major conference tourneys.

• 0:00-3:08 – Miami’s Surprise Championship Season
• 3:08-11:05 – ACC POY and Award Discussion
• 11:05-13:51 – Duke the Favorites With Ryan Kelly
• 13:51-16:16 – Third Time the Charm for UNC Over Duke?
• 16:16-19:21 – Virginia the Only ACC Team Still on the Bubble
• 19:21-23:44 – ACC Seed Predictions
• 23:44-26:29 – Dark Horse Team
• 26:29-28:16 – ACC Tournament breakout star
• 28:16-30:48 – ACC Swan Songs
• 30:48-32:05 – Marquee Match-ups We’re Hoping to See
• 32:05-33:40 – ACC NCAA Tournament Predictions

Yesterday we ran through the current Vegas odds for four of the major conference tournaments getting under way early in the week. Today we’ll take a brief look at the remainder — the ACC, Atlantic 10, Big Ten, and SEC. The SEC tips off tonight with the rest lacing them up on Thursday afternoon. As usual, there are some disparities between overall public perception and the mathematics that Vegas assigns to these teams — we’ll note some of those differences below (all odds reported from 5dimes.com on Tuesday night).

It’s no surprise that the Gators are a heavy favorite in Nashville this week, but #6 seed Missouri coming in with the next highest odds might be. The Tigers would have to win four games in four days, which is always difficult but not impossible. Vegas has little faith in #3 seed Ole Miss and #4 seed Alabama, as exhibited by their relatively low odds. The bottom line is that this tournament is Florida’s to lose, but after that it’s pretty wide open.

#1 seed Miami (FL) may have won the regular season by a game in the ACC standings, but that doesn’t mean Vegas has to oblige with the notion that the Hurricanes are better than #2 seed Duke. The Blue Devils are a significant favorite over the rest of the field in Greensboro, and the odds realistically only give the top half of this league any kind of a chance. One team to watch is #5 seed NC State, who will have to win four games in four days — Vegas is still relatively high on the Wolfpack despite an incredibly inconsistent season.

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The SEC Tournament begins tonight, presumably in front of dozens of people with the #11-#14 seeds in action, but that won’t stop us on the RTC Podcast. We invited SEC microsite writer Brian Joyce (@bjoyce_hoops) along for the discussion. The group breaks down a fairly wide open field, and wonders whether Florida is going to roll through this tournament or run into some additional problems. Feel free to hop around to your areas of concern using the handy outline below, and make sure to check back frequently this week as we’ll be rolling out a new podblast for each of the six major conference tourneys.

• 0:00-3:55 – Florida Wins the SEC Because of Their Talent or Everyone Else’s Lack of Talent?
• 3:55-6:13 – Non-Gator Favorites in the SEC Tournament
• 6:13-15:36 – SEC Teams Trying to Win Their Way into the NCAA Tournament in Nashville
• 15:36-17:42 – SEC Player Poised for a Breakout
• 17:42-18:48 – Players We’ll Miss in the SEC
• 18:48-20:14 – Best Potential Match-ups
• 20:14-22:46 – NCAA Prediction for Florida/Wrap

There’s no Missouri or Texas A&M this year, but the RTC Podcast guys persevered regardless and invited Big 12 microsite writer Danny Spewak (@dspewak) along for the discussion. In this Big 12 Tournament podblast, the trio questions whether Kansas is destined for another championship or if some other team is poised to establish their postseason chops. Feel free to hop around to your areas of concern using the handy outline below, and make sure to check back frequently this week as we’ll be rolling out a new podblast for each of the six major conference tourneys.

• 0:00-2:56 – Kansas Continues Their Big 12 Dominance
• 2:56-5:38 – Big 12 1st Team and Award Talk
• 5:38-8:43 – Can Kansas Carry Their Regular Season Crown Over to the Tournament?
• 8:43-14:05 Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma Try to Win Their Way Off the Bubble
• 14:05-16:30 – Which Team Actually Wins the Big 12 Tournament?
• 16:30-19:06 – Bottom Four Seed With Potential For a Run?
• 19:06-21:10 – Big 12 Tournament Breakout star
• 21:10-22:50 – Players Waving Goodbye to the Big 12
• 22:50-24:57 – Match-up We Want To See Again in KC
• 24:57-28:00 Big 12 NCAA Tournament Predictions/Wrap

With the start of the Pac-12 Tournament just hours away in Las Vegas, the RTC Podcast guys invited Pac-12 microsite writer Andrew Murawa (@amurawa) along for the discussion. In a rapid-fire half-hour podblast, the trio breaks down what we see as the key storylines and possible outcomes from an event as wide open as any power conference tournament in the country. Feel free to hop around to your areas of concern using the handy outline below, and make sure to check back frequently this week as we’ll be rolling out a new podblast for each of the six major conference tourneys.

• 0:00-3:10 – UCLA’s Long Winding Road to the #1 Seed
• 3:10-5:37 – Arizona’s Equally Up and Down Year
• 5:37-9:35- Pac-12 Award Discussion
• 9:35-12:14 The New and Improved Pac-12
• 12:14-15:21 – Big Story Lines and Pac-12 Dark Horses
• 15:21-20:12 Who is the Actual Favorite?
• 20:12-21:05 – Not Much of a Bubble in the Pac-12
• 21:05-22:19 – Team Capable of Screwing Up the Selection Committee
• 22:19-23:57 – Pac-12 Tournament’s Breakout Star
• 23:57-25:13 – Player You Don’t Want to Say Goodbye to
• 25:13-26:16 – Game We Want to See
• 26:16-29:32 Pac-12 Team Poised For a Deep Run in the Big Dance/Wrap

1. The swag that college football teams get at bowl games may garner plenty of attention, but they are not the only college athletes to receive significant amounts of swag. Participants in the NCAA Tournament will receive an estimated $750,000 in gifts with the value of the gifts escalating if teams make it to the Final Four. Unlike college football (at least to our knowledge) the gifts are not limited to just teams that make the equivalent of a bowl game (the NCAA Tournament) as players in nearly every conference tournament will be taking home gifts ranging for t-shirts to televisions. We won’t try to argue that this is comparable to a stipend that many are advocating, but it is a nice bonus.
2. All programs are subject to up and down periods, but mid-majors are more subject to these extremes than most teams in power conferences and Siena is a prime example. It was not that long ago that the Saints made three straight NCAA Tournaments (2008-10), but once Fran McCaffery left things went downhill quickly as they went 35-59 in the following three seasons and yesterday that led to the firing of Mitch Buonaguro, McCaffery’s lead assistant and replacement. Given the sudden drop-off that the program experienced and the lack of progress the team showed in regaining its former glory the decision should not be too surprising. We doubt that we will see Siena reach the heights they saw under McCaffery, but the initiative the administration has shown and the tradition that McCaffery built should make it an appealing destination for a long-time assistant looking for his first job or a coach at a mid-major looking to move up in the college basketball world.
3. We wish we could say the same about UMKC, which fired Matt Brown yesterday, but we are must more skeptical that the Kangaroos (yes, that is actually their nickname) will become a real mid-major threat. Even that lowered expectation was not enough to save the job of Brown, who went 64-122 in six seasons including 8-24 this season. Looking through Brown’s record at UMKC it is not hard to see why Brown was fired even with what we would expect are fairly low expectations at a school that has the misfortune of being surrounded by three basketball powerhouses.
4. We have not seen many significant recruits opt to go the overseas rather than head to college (Brandon Jennings is the most notable exception), but Seton Hall commit Aquille Carr appears to joining that small group. The decision is not exactly shocking for people who have followed Carr closely as the 5’6″ guard had previously mentioned playing in Europe and his arrest last summer for assault and reckless endangerment raised further questions about whether he would end up on a college campus. Still Carr’s decision is the latest in a series of blows for Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard, who went 3-15 in the Big East this season and now has lost two of the guards he was looking forward to bringing to campus next season (both also already carried criminal charges).
5. With the regular season winding down every analyst’s rankings becomes a little less hot debated as we are finally getting to the point of the season where teams control their “ranking” based on what they do on the court rather than how impressive they are in doing so. That does not mean that Luke Winn’s Power Rankings are not as useful as ever with their usual wealth of information. Winn decided to go a little heavier in terms of subjective rankings than usual to offer his Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, and Freshman of the Year ballots, but he still has plenty of other interesting data including an analysis of how unique Gonzaga’s offensive distribution is and showing just how badly Florida’s guards are shooting.

Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. More Tourney Tickets. Bids are flying in from the most distant precincts of college hoops common fandom. The casual onlookers among us look at, say, South Dakota State or Valparaiso and breathe a collective sigh. They see an undeserving population of lower-class programs free riding off a welfare-like system of automatic bids that prizes a days-long single-elimination conference tournament over a season’s body of work. No one said the current small conference arrangement was the silver bullet for competitive entry; it’s just the complex and maddeningly frustrating world we live in. Look, these small league teams may not stand the same chance of making deep March runs as your average power conference denizen, but you know what? Who cares? Yeah, yeah, laugh all you want now, poke fun at the hyphenated university names and obscure locales, but the fact of the matter is these teams, like it or not, will be in the field come Selection Sunday, and they might just wind up giving your [insert BCS conference school here] a brutal time in the early rounds of the Tourney.

Your Watercooler Moment. Horizon and Summit League Hand Out Bids.

Last year’s NCAA Tournament trip for South Dakota State resulted in an opening-round loss to Baylor. Wolters and SDSU are back at it again this year (AP Photo).

In case you missed out on Valparaiso’s stunning semifinal victory over Green Bay, and the utterly hilarious reaction it induced from head coach Bryce Drew, be aware that the Crusaders were one Ryan Broekhoff last-second heave away from never making the final in the first place. Alas, Valpo pulled through, fought off Wright State in the championship round and secured its first bid to the NCAA Tournament since 2004. The near-death semifinal experience gives Valpo’s inclusion a charmed quality, if you can call it that, but the biggest story from Tuesday night’s games comes straight out of Sioux Falls, where – you wanted it, you got it – Nate Wolters led South Dakota State to a second consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance by knocking off league rival North Dakota State. Wolters shined, to the surprise of almost no one, scoring 27 points and dishing out six assists and making every big play in winning time to ensure the Jackrabbits would reach the sport’s grandest national stage once again. This Wolters fellow is an interesting story. Some have broached comparisons to Jimmer Fredette, but that’s really not an accurate description of Wolters’ game. He is a backcourt creative engine, not an electrifying, rhythm-garnering, pure jump shooter. His style is deliberate and cunning, smooth yet off-kilter, harmonious yet lethal. If you missed tonight’s game, circle SDSU’s first-round Tourney match-up, whoever arises, because it’s the final chance to behold one the sport’s most mysteriously alluring backcourt star. You won’t want to miss out.

Tuesday Night’s Quick Hits… 

• Blackbirds Make It Official. Would you be surprised to learn the nation’s leading assist man, Jason Brickman, hails from a three-time defending NEC conference regular season and tournament champion, that Julian Boyd, LIU-Brooklyn’s best player, has been out since December with a knee injury, that the Blackbirds are – not just historically, but this year specifically – actually good? That’s the unit the NEC churned up and spewed out for its automatic NCAA bid this season, and unlike the countless cases where a “hot team” wins a few games to spoil another team’s dominant regular season work, the Blackbirds, who beat Mount Saint Mary’s in the NEC Tournament final Tuesday night, are here on merit, make no mistake. Even without Boyd, LIU-Brooklyn is attuned to the intensity and competition level of tourney games. If nothing else, experience should make the Blackbirds a tricky team to deal with. Read the rest of this entry »

With the start of the final Big East Tournament as we know it on Tuesday night, the RTC Podcast guys invited Big East microsite writer Mike Lemaire (@rtcbigeast) along for the discussion. In a rapid-fire half-hour podblast, the trio breaks down what we see as the key storylines and possible outcomes from an event fraught with interesting possibilities. Feel free to hop around to your areas of concern using the handy outline below, and make sure to check back frequently this week as we’ll be rolling out a new podblast for each of the six major conference tourneys.

• 0:00-5:00 – Georgetown Wraps Up The Regular Season Title in Emphatic Style Over Syracuse
• 5:00-7:58 – First Team All-Big East Discussion
• 7:58-13:07 – Future of the League(s) and End of an Era
• 13:07-16:06 – Things to Watch In the Opening Rounds
• 16:06-18:10 – Georgetown’s the #1 Seed, But Not the Favorite
• 18:10-22:03 – Can Syracuse Turn Around The Season?
• 22:03-24:45 – Bubble Teams Looking to Lock Up Bids
• 24:45-25:45 – Dark Horse Team
• 25:45-26:56 – Tournament’s Breakout Star
• 26:56-28:38 – Player You Don’t Want to Say Goodbye To
• 28:38-29:38 – Dream Match-Up
• 29:38-31:48 – Big East Team Poised for the Best NCAA Tournament Run/Wrap

Championship Week continued in full blast on Monday night, as five more NCAA Tournament tickets were punched. As each of the 31 automatic qualifiers plays their way into the Dance over the next week, we’ll take some time to give you an analytical snapshot of each team that you can refer back to when you’re picking your brackets next weekend.

Western Kentucky

Sun Belt Cinderellas Again — Welcome Back To The Big Dance Hilltoppers

• Sun Belt Champion (20-15, 14-10)
• RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #166/#183/#184
• Adjusted Scoring Margin = +0.5
• Likely NCAA Seed: #15-#16

 Three Bruce Pearls of Wisdom.

1. Who needs the regular season anyways? For the second consecutive campaign, Western Kentucky saw months of mediocrity give way to an unlikely week of dominance at the Sun Belt Tournament, where they depart as champions again. The sequel may never be as thrilling as the original – the 2012 Hilltoppers were just 9-18 (!) before winning their final six games to earn the auto-bid – but this Western Kentucky team is as unlikely a Big Dance participant as any.
2. Western Kentucky isn’t elite in any one facet of the game, but they may be able to match up with their opening round opponent with regard to physicality and toughness. The Hilltoppers are third in the Sun Belt in effective height, and also rank third in the league in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages. 6’6” sophomore George Fant is slightly undersized for the amount of time he spends in the paint, but leads the team in rebounding at 6.6 boards per game. Fant also ranks in the top 50 in the country in fouls drawn per 40 minutes. Senior Jamal Crooks (11.8 PPG, 4.1 APG) is another high-motor Hilltopper – his emotional energy and leadership is a crucial reserve for the young team around him.
3. Expect WKU to compete on both ends, but don’t mistake intensity with skill. They do not shoot the ball well from deep, turn the ball over at an unacceptable clip (on 22.3% of possessions), and don’t play a whole lot of defense either. It all adds up to a rather unimpressive paper profile, and the 10-10 Sun Belt record before this week does little to make you feel better about things. The exact seed line will depend on what happens elsewhere, but either way, it’s hard to envision the Hilltoppers being competitive, much less capable of manufacturing an upset for the ages.

Davidson

Soak It In De’Mon — You And The Wildcats Are Tournament Bound Yet Again

• Southern Conference Champion (26-7, 20-1)
• RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #69/#66/#67
• Adjusted Scoring Margin = +9.4
• Likely NCAA Seed: #12-#14

Three Bruce Pearls of Wisdom.

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