With apologies to Penn and Princeton, the college basketball regular season came to a satisfying end on Sunday. This regular season was defined by unexpected results and uncertainty near the top of the rankings, but #1 Florida, #2 Wichita State, and #3 Arizona end the regular season as the consensus top three teams in America among our pollsters. The Gators capped off their 29-2 overall and 18-0 conference record with blowout wins over South Carolina and Kentucky. Will they or won’t they? That has been the question all season long about the second-ranked Shockers and their pursuit of perfection entering the NCAA Tournament. Gregg Marshall’s squad confidently answered that question over the weekend with a fairly easy stroll to the Missouri Valley Tournament title and a perfect 34-0 record. While Florida and Wichita State used the final week of the season to showcase their excellence, Arizona experienced its third setback of the season in a loss at Oregon on Saturday. However, the Wildcats still possess a sterling 28-3 overall record, which our pollsters fully agreed was good enough for the third spot in our final regular season poll. The quick n’ dirty analysis of this week’s poll is after the jump.

Quick n’ Dirty Analysis.

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The regular season is over, Championship Week is here, and it’s now or never for all of the teams that have talked a rather big game but haven’t necessarily backed it up with their play on the court. To that end, we’re going to be rolling out nine RTC Podblasts this week, one to preview each of the seven power conference tournaments as well as the Atlantic 10 and the Mountain West (to scroll through all that have been released, click here). In this, our Big East Tournament edition, RTC columnist Brian Otskey (@botskey) joins us to discuss what appears to be a fairly wide-open field this week at Madison Square Garden. The SEC, Big 12 and AAC Tournament editions will release a bit later today, with the remainder coming later this week. Join us!

Make sure to add the RTC Podcast to your iTunes lineup so that you’ll automatically upload it on your listening device after we record.

• 0:00-4:13 – Villanova’s Surprisingly Great Season
• 4:13-5:49 – First Big East Season a Success For Creighton
• 5:49-8:04 – Big East Superlatives
• 8:04-10:30 – Perception and Strength of the “New” Big East
• 10:30-11:40 – Who is the Favorite in the Big East Tournament?
• 11:40-16:07 – Darkhorse Teams That Can Win The Tournament
• 16:07-18:08 – Bubble Teams in Need of Wins
• 18:08-19:14 – Seeds for Villanova and Creighton
• 19:14-21:24 – Atmosphere at the New Big East Tourney

As we move through Championship Week, we’ll continue to bring you short reviews of each of the automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket next week. Three more teams — one well known, the other two less so — punched their tickets on Sunday. Here’s what you need to know about the most recent bid winners.

Coastal Carolina

Cliff Ellis And Coastal Carolina Are Your Big South Champions — Finally. Welcome To The Big Dance Chanticleers!

• Big South Champion (21-12, 14-5)
• RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #228/#226/#239
• Adjusted Scoring Margin = -1.3
• Likely NCAA Seed: #16 (First Four)

Three Bruce Pearls of Wisdom.

1. Seven Big South teams won 10 conference games this season, but in the end, it was Coastal Carolina who emerged from the pack to win the Big South Tournament. Former Auburn and Clemson head man Cliff Ellis is now in his seventh season at Coastal, and his first Tournament appearance with the Chanticleers has to feel long overdue. This was the fifth consecutive season that CCU had won more games than they lost in conference play, and the program posted 28 wins in both 2010 and 2011 only to be upset in the conference tournament final in each season. No Championship Week heartbreak for Ellis’ team this season, however, as the Chanticleers are dancing for the first time in over two decades.
2. The Chanticleers will be one of the better defensive teams on the lower seed lines. Ellis’ bunch was the best defensive team in the Big South all season long, and they put the clamps on Winthrop Sunday, forcing the nation’s 14th-best three-point shooting outfit into an 8-of-26 effort from behind the arc. They also compete on the boards – an effort spearheaded by 6’10” senior El Hadji Ndieguene (10.1% OR, 18.5% DR). Defense and rebounding are often major weaknesses for Cinderella hopefuls, but that will not be the case with Coastal Carolina. Read the rest of this entry »

1. It has been March for a while now, but it didn’t really feel like until Friday night when teams started receiving NCAA Tournament automatic bids. The first team to do so was Harvard by virtue of winning the Ivy League regular season title. They were soon joined by Mercer, Coastal Carolina, Wichita State, and Eastern Kentucky. Perhaps the biggest surprise of the weekend was Milwaukee beating Green Bay in the Horizon League semifinals, but we wouldn’t necessarily call them a bid thief because we doubt that Green Bay will be able to get an at-large bid.
2. The opposite side of the end of the regular season are the coaches being shown the door. Todd Howard appears to be the first one fired after he was let go by IUPUI. Howard went 26-70 at the school including 6-26 this year (1-13 in the Summit League). On the other end of the spectrum is Oliver Purnell, who will return next season at DePaul despite the Blue Demons going 11-20 overall and 3-15 in the Big East. We understand that Purnell just finished year four of a seven-year deal, but with the city’s plans for possibly building an arena for the school to play in you would expect that they would want to provide a better on-court product to get some votes behind the project.
3. It seems strange, but in some ways Florida–the #1 team in the country–is largely being ignored. Now some of that may have to do with Wichita State and its undefeated season. It certainly is not because these Gators–particularly the seniors–have not been in the national spotlight before. They will never be the back-to-back championship Gator teams, but they have been to three straight Elite Eights. As Andy Staples points out the growth of this group has been substantial and if they are to get over that Elite Eight hurdle that experience may be the key.
4. We have seen a lot of strange transfer cases over the years, but the one involving Bubu Palo has to be one of the more unique ones. Palo, who has been mentioned in this space many times, missed much of this season after being suspended following a sexual assault charge that was later dropped. In January, a judge ruled that Palo should be allowed back on the team and he was, but he has not played for team since rejoining the team. Now it appears that Palo, a senior, will attempt to transfer and seek a hardship waiver. Honestly, with how strange this case has been and how easily the NCAA has been granting hardship waivers we would not be surprised to see Palo wind up at another school next year.
5. If you are looking for an under-the-radar team to make a run in the NCAA Tournament, you could do worse than George Washington. The Colonials are currently 22-7 overall and 10-5 in the Atlantic-10 (4th in the conference), but will be getting Kethan Savage, their second-leading scorer, back in time for the conference tournament. Savage has been out since January 18 after missing the last 11 games with a broken foot. Before his injury, the Colonials were 15-3. Since the injury, they are 7-4. Obviously some of that has to do with playing a tougher conference, but it will be interesting to see how long it takes Savage and the team to get used to playing together because if they adapt quickly the could be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament.

Saturday was a massive day of eliminations from the Circle of March, as the sixth full day of Championship Fortnight resulted in 46 more schools dropping out of contention for the national title. The bloodbath included only one automatic bid — hey, Eastern Kentucky — but there were 11 other mid-major tournaments occurring yesterday, as well as a number of other regular seasons ending. Sunday thus far has already brought us a few more automatic bids — Wichita State, Coastal Carolina and Mercer are all going dancing. A handful of schools were eliminated from the CoM by virtue of not qualifying for their conference tournaments starting next week, but keep in mind that to preserve the integrity of the regular season, we’re not yet eliminating schools that still have games to play (i.e., Penn and Princeton). This means that we are left with 232 “eligible” teams for the 2014 National Championship. One week to Selection Sunday!

Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.08.14)

• Florida Gulf Coast
• Indiana State
• Northeastern
• Winthrop
• New Hampshire
• Wagner
• Rider
• Samford
• UNC-Asheville
• Hofstra
• St. Francis (PA)
• Missouri State
• Drexel
• Elon
• Siena
• UMBC
• VMI
• San Diego
• Army
• Southern Illinois
• Loyola Marymount
• Holy Cross
• James Madison
• Maine
• Chattanooga
• Saint Peter’s
• Brown
• Columbia
• Cornell
• Yale
• Dartmouth
• IUPUI
• Cleveland St.
• Belmont
• Binghamton
• The Citadel
• College of Charleston
• Niagara
• Santa Clara
• Pepperdine
• Lamar
• Central Arkansas
• Houston Baptist
• Eastern Washington
• Montana State
• Idaho State
• Southern Utah
• South Alabama
• Texas State
• UC Davis

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s 11th-best bracketologist out of hundreds of entries. 

Here are quick thoughts and notes following Saturday’s games:

Lock them up: Florida is now guaranteed a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, regardless of what happens in the SEC Tournament. The Gators pummeled Kentucky and then watched two other No. 1 seed contenders, Kansas and Arizona, lose. If the field was selected today, Florida would be the No. 1 overall seed and the only way that will change is if the Gators lose in the SEC Tournament. But, one thing is not going to change: The Gators will be on the top line. Wichita State is also locked into a No. 1 seed after reaching the Missouri Valley championship game.

The Gators Will Be a #1 Seed Next Sunday

Teams in the running for a No. 1 seed: Kansas lost to West Virginia by six and Arizona lost at Oregon, creating chaos on the top line. I already had Wisconsin on the No. 1 line before Kansas’ loss and I expect other bracketology experts to move the Badgers up now, barring a loss at needy Nebraska Sunday night. Villanova and Syracuse are also in play for a top seed after Virginia’s defeat at Maryland today.

Green Bay very much alive: I always feel awful for at least one mid-major team that dominates its conference all season and then gets swept away in the conference tournament, losing to a team its already proven it’s better than. Well, this year’s team has already identified itself: Green Bay. The Phoenix lost to Milwaukee Saturday night and now will sweat out Selection Sunday. For those who think Green Bay’s chances of getting a bid are slim to none, think again. Remember the first year of the 68-team field when UAB was picked out of Conference USA despite losing in the first round of the CUSA Tournament to East Carolina? Or last season, when a Middle Tennessee team without a single top 100 win, made the field? The Pheonix have a top 100 win, and actually, they have four. They also have a TOP 10 RPI win over Virginia, a team the rest of the ACC has only defeated twice. I’m not saying Green Bay is getting a bid – not at this point, with so much still to be determined — but they will be one of the last teams in or out next Sunday. The committee has shown over and over again since the field expanded that it will use an average of two of last few spots for mid-majors. This is a weaker year for mid-majors than any other year since the field went to 68 teams, but that doesn’t mean the committee will act differently.

Read the rest of this entry »

As we move through Championship Week, we’ll continue to bring you short reviews of each of the automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket next week. The second team to gain entry into the 2014 NCAA Tournament is Eastern Kentucky, the Ohio Valley Conference Champion. Here’s what you need to know about the most recent bid winner, and if you’d like to peruse all of the previously minted conference champs, click here.

Eastern Kentucky

Get Your Dancing Shoes On Glenn Cosey And Company — Eastern Kentucky Is NCAA Tournament Bound.

• OVC Champion (24-9, 14-5)
• RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #113/#132/#150
• Adjusted Scoring Margin = +3.4
• Likely NCAA Seed: #15

Three Bruce Pearls of Wisdom.

1. Many folks may have penciled March mainstay Belmont into the NCAA Tournament field when they saw Saturday’s OVC title match-up between the Bruins and Eastern Kentucky on the docket, but it’s their stylistic comrades that will represent the conference in the Big Dance. Much like Belmont, Eastern Kentucky boasts an efficient offense that, 24 times out of 33 games this year, was able to overcome the Colonels’ extensive defensive shortcomings. The contrast in EKU efficiency between ends of the floor is best captured by their eFG% and eFG% against – only three teams have been better nationally in the former category, but just nine D-1 teams have fared worse in the latter. Read the rest of this entry »

Friday was a fun day of eliminations, with several good games involving a couple of buzzer-beaters, one step closer for #cheerfortheears, and the NCAA Tournament’s first automatic bid (Harvard). All told, 16 teams lost games and were removed from the Circle of March, with two more tournaments on tap to begin today (America East and The Summit). That leaves us with 282 “eligible” teams, but keep in mind that in order to respect the integrity of the regular season, we will not remove teams until their schedules are finished regardless of their current status. This means that the five other already-eliminated Ivy League teams, each of which concludes their seasons tonight, will come off the CoM on Sunday (Penn and Princeton, the two other Ivies, will be removed after their Tuesday night finale).

 Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.07.14)

• Murray State
• Appalachian State
• High Point
• Evansville
• Furman
• Radford
• Illinois State
• UNC Greensboro
• Charleston Southern
• UNC Wilmington
• Oakland
• Loyola (Chicago)
• Morehead State
• Gardner-Webb
• Valparaiso
• Northern Iowa

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s 11th-best bracketologist out of hundreds of entries. 

This is a quick update to the March 3 field. Remember, this weekend we are awarding automatic bids. The race for the final No. 1 seed is heating  up and will come down to conference tournament play over the last few days of the season. For now, my final No. 1 seed is Wisconsin and I believe that if the Badgers win the Big Ten Tournament, they are likely be on the No. 1 line.

Kansas, Virginia and Villanova also have strong cases. Like I wrote in my last update, I think Florida, Arizona and Wichita State are pretty much locks to be No. 1 seeds. The only way I can see that changing is if Florida loses to Kentucky and again in the SEC Tournament, Arizona follows suit, and Wichita State loses in the MVC Tournament. Plus at least two teams from the Wisconsin, Kansas,Virginia and Villanova group would need to win their conference tournaments. That would really make things interesting. I’ve never missed a No. 1 seed and don’t plan to start this year, so I’m honestly hoping that last scenario does not happen.

First Four Out: Tennessee, Missouri, BYU, Providence

The first ticket to the NCAA Tournament was punched in New Haven on Friday night, and as each of the 31 automatic qualifiers plays their way into the Dance over the next week, we’ll take some time to give you an analytic snapshot of each team that you can refer back to when you’re picking your brackets next weekend.

Harvard

Tommy Amaker’s Team Is Back In The Big Dance, And The Crimson Aren’t Planning On Leaving The Party Early

• Ivy Champion (25-4, 12-1)
• RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #52/#32/#37
• Adjusted Scoring Margin = +11.4
• Likely NCAA Seed: #10-#12

Three Bruce Pearls of Wisdom.

1. Well, well, well – look who we have here. The Harvard Crimson, by virtue of their victory Friday night over Yale, clinched the Ivy League title and earned the 2014 NCAA Tournament’s first official bid. Harvard and NCAA Tournament in the same sentence may have been quite a story a few years ago, but after three straight Tournament appearances, the NBA’s brief bout of Linsanity in 2012, and last year’s opening round takedown of New Mexico, the Crimson have become a familiar March entity. This year’s team may be Tommy Amaker’s best since he arrived in Cambridge, but navigating its way to another Ivy title was not the walk in the park many expected, as Yale proved a worthy challenger right up until the end. Read the rest of this entry »