N.C. State Burning Question: Will the Wolfpack’s frontcourt be good enough?

For Kevin Keatts to lead the Wolfpack back to the NCAA Tournament in his third season in Raleigh, he must find a way to develop a better interior group — especially defensively — to complement his potent backcourt. Last year, NC State allowed its ACC opponents to make 51.6 percent of their two-point tries (13th in the ACC) and ranked ninth in the league in defensive rebounding. And, oh yeah, the Wolfpack lost their two best defensive rebounders (Torin Dorn and Wyatt Walker). Further mucking things up is the status of NC State’s best returning big man, DJ Funderburk who is serving an indefinite suspension. Even with Funderburk available, Keatts would have to rely on newcomers to help man the post. Redshirt freshman Manny Bates should bring rim protection, but his offense is a question mark. Lehigh graduate transfer Pat Andree is known for his outside shooting touch (41.9% 3FG last year) but entering the ACC will be a big step up in competition for him.

There is a plethora of talent and experience available on the Wolfpack’s perimeter. Leading the way will be senior point guard Markell Johnson (12.6 PPG, 4.2 APG, 42.2% 3FG) and his returning running mate, junior Braxton Beverly (9.4 PPG, 2.5 APG). On the wing, expect a pair of former transfers to show improvement in their second go-around in Raleigh. C.J. Bryce (11.6 PPG) and Devon Daniels (9.3 PPG) are the prototypical players to fit Keatts’ style. They both can shoot from distance, attack off the dribble, and harass opposing ball-handlers. Blake Harris recently decided to transfer out of the program, but that still leaves plenty of outside firepower. However, for NC State to return to the Big Dance, the guards will need help from their bigger buddies.

Notre Dame Burning Question: Will the Irish make some shots this year?

DePaul: Will newcomers vault DePaul into a long overdue rebound?

Breaking news: DePaul is 77th in KenPom‘s preseason rankings, which, if the Blue Demons can maintain, would equate to the team’s best finish since 2007. In fact, last season was the school’s first year above .500 in over a decade and it was capped on a high note — as the runner-up team in the CBI tournament. So it would seem that DePaul’s upward trajectory would be poised to continue, if not for the fact that 60 percent of its scoring output has departed Chicago. The remaining roster is full of question marks, which is both concerning and exciting. The only known commodities are the return of Devin Gage, an inconsistent but explosive guard, and a steadying pair of 6’9″ inside forces in Paul Reed and Jaylen Butz — both of whom spearheaded the Blue Demons’ best strength last season: rebounding. The list of unknowns is long — too long to promote any promise of a successful season, but simultaneously long enough to make things interesting. Head coach Dave Leitao added Romeo Weems, a four-star forward who signed with DePaul over Michigan and Michigan State, and inked a transfer in Charlie Moore, a sparingly used guard at Kansas. These two will join Jalen Coleman-Lands, who averaged 10 PPG in five games prior to a season-ending injury, in rounding out a high upside but low floor scoring attack. On paper, if high school rankings and former schools count for anything, this team has a good degree of potential, maybe even enough to draw out some of its students. But it’s hard to put stock into potential alone, particularly as it relates to a long-suffering program such as this one.

Georgetown: Will there finally be enough defense to support the offense?

There’s no getting around it — for the last two seasons, Georgetown has finished second to last in the Big East in defensive efficiency. Entering his third season as head coach, Patrick Ewing is pushing the tempo at a moment’s notice, which has the effect of both easy baskets and countless turnovers. Behind a pair of electric freshman guards in James Akinjo and Mac McClung, the fun style led to numerous games where the Hoyas’ defense thwarted its offense. Ewing trotted out a starting lineup with three freshmen, so the natural fallback excuse is that its subpar defense was experience-driven, which brings us back to our key question: Will another year of experience result in a more consistent defense? Between versatile 6’7″ wings Josh LeBlanc and JaMorko Pickett and some strong-armed guards, Ewing has the personnel in place. His team’s uncertainty lies in the paint. Offensive-minded Jessie Govan (+0.07 PPP offense; -0.07 PPP defense, per HoopLens) graduated, only to be replaced by another defensively deficient center in NC State transfer Omer Yurtseven (+0.09 PPP offense; -0.09 PPP defense). Yurtseven has a slightly better shot-blocking and rebounding profile than his predecessor, but it’s unclear whether he can function as a ball-stopping center on defense. He is joined by a trio of 6’10” and 6’11” three-star freshmen, whose impact will be important but is still unknown. It wouldn’t take a great defense to put Georgetown into the NCAA Tournament picture this season, but a decent one is critical.

Clemson Burning Question: Can the Tigers score enough to compete?

As Dabo Swinney and the Clemson football team continue to reel off wins, the Tigers’ basketball team flies under the radar. That might be a good thing for Brad Brownell, as his club loses its top three scorers from a second round NIT squad. To make things tougher, Clemson’s projected starting point guard, Clyde Trapp, suffered a torn ACL over the summer. While Brownell’s teams pride themselves on defense (Clemson ranked 28th nationally in field goal percentage defense and 14th in adjusted defense, via KenPom), they’ll need to find someone to put the ball in the basket if they want to hang around the bubble. Forward Aamir Simms had a promising freshman year in 2017-18, but he regressed last year, seeing declines in his scoring (14.2 to 13.6 PPG) and conversion rate (53.6 to 52.5% eFG) and an increase in turnovers (13.9 to 15.1% TO). Sophomore guard John Newman could never really get going last season, but he’ll be counted on for a big increase in usage this year. Brownell will also rely on transfers, including versatile wing Tevin Mack (formerly of Texas and Alabama) and sharpshooting former Tulsa guard Curran Scott (39.6% 3FG). Look for freshman guards Al-Amir Dawes and Chase Hunter to get some run as well, with Clemson going perimeter-heavy around Simms as a small-ball five.

Virginia Tech Burning Question: Can Mike Young work magic in year one?

Butler: Can the Bulldogs’ supporting cast take the necessary step forward to return to the NCAA Tournament?

Despite finishing with a sub-.500 overall record and falling to a last place finish (tied) in the Big East standings, Butler was on the periphery of last year’s NCAA Tournament bubble until very late in the season. A mix of strong early wins, the tightly-clustered conference standings, and the star power of Kamar Baldwin kept them relevant, but the stark lack of a suitable supporting cast ultimately doomed Butler’s year.

The pressure will be on the supporting cast once again this season, as Paul Jorgenson, the Bulldogs’ second-leading scorer and second-best shooter, has graduated. Jordan Tucker is poised to step into a secondary scoring role with his 6’7″ size and beautiful three-point stroke (37% on 50 makes) — despite averaging an impressive 9.7 PPG last year, the sophomore was too inconsistent, scoring six points or fewer in nearly 30 percent of his games. Tucker will need to diversify his offensive game and improve his finishing at the rim to realize his immense potential.

Boston College Burning Question: Will the second consecutive early departure sabotage another campaign before it even begins?

Despite what has amounted to a lost decade of hoops in Chestnut Hill, Jim Christian’s charges had a slight glimmer of hope when the 2017-18 season came to a close. Seven league wins, the most since 2013, and an NIT appearance, the first postseason of any kind since the same year, had Boston College excited for a breakthrough last season. However, when half of one of the league’s preeminent backcourts vaulted to the NBA (Jerome Robinson) and the other (Ky Bowman) opted to eschew his final year of eligibility a year later, the Eagles seem destined for yet another year of irrelevance, cemented at the bottom of the ACC standings.

To add injury to insult, the player most equipped to fill the dynamic shoes of Bowman, rising sophomore Wynston Tabbs, will miss the entire year after September knee surgery. Much will therefore fall on the shoulders of former five-star recruit Derryck Thornton, now at his third collegiate stop, and senior Nik Popovic, the team’s leading returning scorer and second-leading rebounder. Expectations are bleak, as Boston College is the only ACC school outside of the KenPom preseason top 100, and if that plays itself out on the floor, it seems unlikely that Christian will be back to steward the Eagles for a seventh season.

Pittsburgh Burning Question: Will Jeff Capel’s progress continue?

We are now just over two weeks away from opening night in college basketball, so it’s time to start our preseason coverage here at the ACC microsite. Over the next two weeks we will provide key question previews of all 15 ACC schools and we will also be sharing our preseason thoughts on Twitter. Follow us there – @rtcACC, Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk), Matt Auerbach (@mauerbach24), and Mick McDonald (@themickmcdonald). But first, let’s put a bow on last season and take a quick peak ahead at the upcoming campaign.

2018-19 Recap

It was another highly successful year for the conference. The ACC became the first league in history to land the top three rankings in the final AP poll – Duke, Virginia and North Carolina – all of which earned #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Then, in one of the all-time best NCAA turnarounds, Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers collected the program’s first National Championship just one year after suffering the agonizing distinction of becoming the first top seed in history to fall to a #16 seed. To add to the drama, Virginia faced extreme peril in each of its final three games in last season’s tourney. According to KenPom’s win probability model, the Cavaliers overcame the following situations:

• Elite Eight vs Purdue – Trailed 70-67 with 16 seconds to play (Win Probability = 12.2%)
• Final Four vs Auburn – Trailed 61-57 with 17 seconds to play (Win Probability = 5.5%)
• Title Game vs Texas Tech – Trailed 68-65 with 22 seconds to play (Win Probability = 13.0%)

It’s a painful narrative stemming from another painful season in the Big East. The conference as a whole battled all season long, collecting a number of impressive non-conference wins, amassing both longstanding and fleeting appearances in the Top 25, and ultimately achieving four NCAA Tournament bids. And yet again, come March, all that hard work failed to materialize. The best conference achievements might have been Xavier‘s run from 3-8 team to bubble team, the out-performance of Seton Hall and Creighton (picked eighth and ninth in the preseason poll, respectively), or DePaul‘s first postseason appearance since 2007 (it finished as the runner-up). But at the end of the day, the league’s attention disappeared as quickly as its several teams did from contention.

Given the exodus of talent from last offseason, most teams expected to struggle to adjust this year. But what hasn’t changed — not this year, last year, or the year before — is that the Big East continues to underwhelm in the NCAA Tournament. It’s a frustrating habit for conference supporters and it fuels the narratives that the league is no longer a top-tier conference, isn’t worth watching, is overrated, etc… So what gives? How many years will the non-Villanova Big East continue to languish in postseason play? And why is it even happening? There are a few schools of thought:

The first and most prominent is the sample size conundrum. The single elimination format of the NCAA Tournament allows for a wide variance in outcomes whereby a hot or cold shooting night, a few missed calls or a poor game plan will have an outsized effect on public perception of a team. The perfect example is last season’s Virginia club, which at 31-2 and an overall #1 seed, had one bad game at an inopportune time and received a shocking amount of criticism. Was it justified? Certainly not; a 33-game sample size greatly outweighs the one-game sample size of the NCAA Tournament. The same could be said for the postseason as it pertains to the Big East: single-game losses to equal or better teams should not outweigh the regular season as a barometer of success. But justly or not, it does, and it will continue to do so because the perceived point of the tournament in the first place is to crown the best team. One season might be a blip, but it remains perplexing that the Big East, aside from Villanova and an unexpected run by Xavier one year, has struggled for years.

The last 10-15 years of college basketball have witnessed a number of changes. The impact of the NBA’s one-and-done rule has been obvious, but think about what else has shaped the game. There has been an influx of international talent as well as a sharp increase in undergraduate and graduate transfers. In practice facilities, coaching staffs have access to more data and video than ever before, and on the sidelines, the best coaches find a way to marry all of that information with the traditional scouting and player development on which their careers have been built to get the best possible results on the court. Yes, there remains a variety of ways to skin the cat, but not many, and especially not when it comes to rising to the absolute top. Texas Tech may not be the objectively best team left, and whether they’re the most talented team left is debatable, but when I watch the Red Raiders play, I see college basketball in 2019 crystallized into one team.

Sure, Jarrett Culver is a sophomore rather than a one-and-done, but he was already on many 2019 NBA Draft boards after playing a perfect complementary role to Zhaire Smith and Keenan Evans on last season’s Elite Eight squad. Last summer, the Red Raiders put Culver on a liberal eating regimen so that he could bulk up and carry the workload necessary to propel his team to a regular season Big 12 title. As a result, he earned Big 12 Player of the Year honors and has led Texas Tech to the sport’s final weekend as a prospective lottery pick two months from now. I guess you could say it’s worked.

Fifteen years between NCAA Tournament appearances. Sixteen years between Sweet Sixteen trips. One prior Elite Eight visit. One coach hired off the scrap heap following a three-year show cause penalty. The specter of an FBI investigation. Prior to its magical run to the Final Four, those things were just about all anyone knew or needed to know about Auburn’s rather nondescript history as a basketball program.

Of course, none of that encapsulates just how bad the program was when the controversial Bruce Pearl was hired by former athletics director Jay Jacobs in the spring of 2014. Tony Barbee, previous and subsequent to the gig a John Calipari disciple, oversaw four years of putrid results that included a total of 18 SEC wins, no postseason appearances, and a fan base beyond apathetic. With Pearl coming off the show cause that led to his unceremonious departure from Tennessee in 2011, Jacobs wisely decided that there was no reason to not take a chance on a coach who had made the Volunteers relevant again in the middle of the prior decade. While Pearl’s tumultuous history made the hire anything but a sure thing – and who knows where it really will go from here – what real risk was there to hiring someone who had proved himself a winner, taking two programs to the Sweet Sixteen and Tennessee to its only Elite Eight in program history? When 9,121-seat capacity Auburn Arena was seeing average crowds of less than 6,000 patrons per game, what did Jacobs have to lose by tying himself to the bombastic Pearl — a man who is perhaps equal parts basketball coach and circus act?

Rush the Court’s ACC microsite team of Brad Jenkins, Matt Auerbach and Mick McDonald chat about the ACC’s lone Final Four participant, as well as the losses suffered by ACC squads in the regionals.

Brad Jenkins: Welcome to April, fellas! Although it’s a little disappointing that only one of the ACC’s trio of top seeds made it through regional play, we still have the league’s best team, Virginia, heading to Minneapolis. But before we look ahead, let’s recap the amazing regionals action we just saw. Before we look at the individual ACC squads that perished, what are your overall thoughts on what we witnessed? Was this the best Elite Eight ever?

Mick McDonald: The 2005 NCAA Tournament is the standard bearer for amazing Elite Eights, and I think this year’s crop rates right up there with it. All four games featured two excellent teams playing at high levels in close games. We got two overtime games, a heavyweight battle between two legendary coaches, and one of the best individual performances in the history of the tournament from Purdue’s Carsen Edwards. Top it off with the amazing buzzer-beating scramble by Virginia to lock in an all-time moment, and I think you can make a pretty good argument for it being the best.

Matt Auerbach: All things being equal, the one that could rival this Elite Eight was, as Mick referenced, the one back in 2005. But, given the epic nature of the finish between Virginia and Purdue — with a backdrop of the performance of Edwards and the redemption of the Cavaliers — to highlight a weekend where another game went to overtime, another was decided by a point and another — Texas Tech vs. Gonzaga — was perhaps the best played of them all. It was an exhilarating set of games, and undeniably one of the best set of Elite Eight games ever.

Brad Jenkins: I’ve been watching this tournament since… well, let’s just say for quite a while. I can’t recall a better four games to get to the Final Four. And the Virginia-Purdue classic is on the short list of the best college games I’ve ever watched. Now, let’s talk a little about the ACC teams that bowed out in the Sweet Sixteen, beginning with Florida State and Virginia Tech. Tough losses for both programs, but historic seasons nonetheless.

Matt Auerbach: Yeah, I think Florida State just kind of ran into an off night situation with Gonzaga. It felt as though the Zags kept them at a comfortable distance throughout the contest, and the Seminoles could never get a spark to surge into the lead. As for the Hokies, you can’t get any closer than that!