Rushed Reactions: Oregon 73, California 65

Posted by RJ Abeytia on March 11th, 2017

Oregon and Cal came into the game as the two best defensive teams in the league, and after a fast start for the offenses, the defenses rose up and put a stranglehold on the game. In the end, Cal’s early loss of Jabari Bird proved to be a bridge too far as the NCAA Tournament-galvanizing win the Bears were looking for eluded them and the Ducks moved onto their fourth Pac-12 title game in five seasons.  

Oregon is in Position to Win Its Second Straight Pac-12 Title (USA Today Images)

Key Takeaways.

  • Oregon’s versatility is a big, big deal. The Ducks overcame a subpar (3-of-12 FG) and foul-plagued (he picked up his fourth foul with 18:02 left in the second half) game from Dillon Brooks. Tyler Dorsey picked up his slack with a 23-point performance, but Oregon was not dependent on Brooks to put on his cape at the end. Dylan Ennis posted the key bucket in the final few minutes, curling off a weave handoff and getting to the bucket for the game-sealing three-point play.
  • One of the biggest factors was Oregon’s ability to overcome a poor effort from its freshman point guard and Cal’s inability to do the same. Payton Pritchard was a virtual non-entity on offense (three points) and earned the ire of Dana Altman defensively as well. Cal’s Charlie Moore had a decent overall line with 15 points on 5-of-11 shooting but he also committed seven turnovers and could not get the Bears a good shot when they desperately needed one. With 2:10 to go and the Bears down three, he turned it over with a bad double-dribble possession. Moments later, Ennis hit the and-one that sealed the game for the Ducks. With Dorsey, Brooks and Ennis, Oregon didn’t need Pritchard to organize them and it made the difference.
  • Jordan Bell passes the eye test. Bell had a monster block on a Stephen Domingo drive late where he came from seemingly nowhere (the deep right wing, but you get the idea) to erase what appeared to be an easy layup. He has an endless motor, plays very physically, yet only had two fouls in a game that featured 41 violations. He also contributed 15 rebounds, five blocks and a steal. Oregon is the best defensive team in the conference and Bell is one of the best defenders in college basketball. People want to think Go-Go offense when they think Oregon, but the deeper they go into this season the clearer it is that it’s defense that forms the foundation of this team.

Star of the Game. Tyler Dorsey, Oregon. Bell was a close second, but Dorsey put up 23 points in 32 turnover-free minutes in a game that was effectively played without Dillon Brooks. Cal had nobody who could step up and replace Jabari Bird’s production in the same way that Dorsey did for the Ducks.

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Weekly Pac-5: Unforced Errors

Posted by Adam Butler on February 3rd, 2017

The unforced error, most commonly quantified in tennis, is universally agreed upon as annoying. No matter your task, an error sustained but perhaps not earned, is peak frustration. As it translates to basketball, the non-steal turnover would seem to be among the most frustrating of unforced errors. This is the time of ball forfeiture that looks like an errant pass, a dribble off the foot, or an extra step and a travel. I imagine you cringed just reading that list.

Cal Outlasted Utah Last Night Partially Because of a Low 10 Turnovers (USA Today Images0

In this week’s Pac-5, we look at the Pac-12’s leaders in unforced errors. To quantify this, we’ll look at the percentage of a team’s turnovers that were not caused by theft. Here are the Pac-12’s team leaders in unforced errors:

  1. California, 64% of turnovers are non-steals – This is in fact a nationally bad number, ranking as the ninth-highest such ratio in college basketball. It might be particularly frustrating when you consider there are three seniors in Cal’s backcourt. There is, of course, also a freshman, Charlie Moore, who actually leads the Golden Bears in turnover rate. Furthermore, by volume, this must be wildly frustrating as the Bears play at the slowest tempo in the conference. That’s a lot of UFEs.
  2. Arizona, 60% – This one doesn’t hurt too bad when you consider the Wildcats commit a percentage of turnovers that is about at the national average.
  3. Washington, 58% – Considering that all these coughed-up opportunities could actually be Markelle Fultz jumpers? Also, Fultz owns the nation’s 28th-highest usage rate yet turns the ball over on just 14.9 percent of possessions.
  4. Oregon, 56% – Last season, Casey Benson had an outrageous handle at the point. This year he’s yielded those minutes to a Payton Pritchard, a freshman, who’s perhaps a greater scoring threat but something more of a turnover liability (as is Dillon Brooks, at 21%).
  5. Utah, 55% – We’re inching towards the national average (54%) so maybe this one isn’t as tough a pill to swallow as, for example, Cal? Too soon to mention those two teams in the same sentence?

NOT LISTED: Oregon State. The Beavers have the sixth highest turnover rate in the nation, which by itself is frustrating. They’re turning the ball over (stolen or otherwise) on nearly a quarter of their possessions.

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Weekly Pac-5: Freshman Efficiency

Posted by RJ Abeytia on January 9th, 2017

It’s very much a Year of the Freshman in college basketball and the Pac-12 has followed suit. As we now find ourselves through two weeks of conference play, it’s a good time to check in on the headlining freshmen in the Conference of Champions. Washington’s Markelle Fultz is the Pac-12’s leading scorer and the front-runner as the top pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, but there are a number of other high-scoring freshmen in the league. In fact, we could probably just list the top five scorers in the Pac, slap the top five freshmen label on them, and call it a day. Here’s what the list would look like if we did just that.

Markelle Fultz is the Presumptive #1 Pick in the 2017 NBA Draft (USA Today Images)

  1. Markelle Fultz, Washington – 22.1 PPG
  2. TJ Leaf, UCLA – 17.4 PPG
  3. Lauri Markannen, Arizona – 15.9 PPG
  4. Charlie Moore, California – 15.2 PPG
  5. Lonzo Ball, UCLA – 14.7 PPG

Pretty good, right?  Those are your top five freshmen by scoring average. They’ve all played enough minutes for us to trust in the validity of their averages, but what happens when you rank these five players based on offensive efficiency?  Here’s where things start to get interesting.

Player ORtg
TJ Leaf, UCLA 134.3
Lauri Markannen, Arizona 132.3
Lonzo Ball, UCLA 131.0
Markelle Fultz, Washington 119.4
Rawle Alkins, Arizona 107.7

 


Well then.  First, we see that Markannen, whose shooting splits are insane, vaults to the top of the group. California’s Moore gets voted off the island altogether; Arizona’s Rawle Alkins jumps into the picture; and Fultz slides down to fourth in our rankings. This is why efficiency is important to consider when judging players. Does Offensive Rating make Markannen a better player than the others? No, but it does clearly identify him as the most
efficient offensive player regardless of draft potential. That’s all well and good, but what about defense? For that we turn to defensive efficiency, an admittedly noisy statistic compared with individual Offensive Rating, but still a useful and informative metric. Limited strictly to defense, here’s how the top five freshmen scorers in the conference.

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