For the last ten years, fairly or unfairly, Duke has had the perception of being all backcourt all the time. Long gone are the days where Christian Laettner, Elton Brand or Carlos Boozer graced the court in Durham. In describing his recruitment decision to attend Michigan last week, Mitch McGary let it all out: “all [Duke’s] big men do is set screens and rebound and that they don’t get a lot of touches.”

Josh McRoberts' Relative Lack of Success at Duke Still Haunts the Blue Devils

Duke Hoop Blog looked at this perception, which moves closer to reality as the memory of its last dominant big man, Shelden Williams, fades out of casual fan memory. The author comes to the conclusion that the Williams/Redick era is the answer, and I see his argument. But I don’t think it’s that simple, or even the biggest factor in Duke’s relative decrease in a post presence over the last ten years. I think the real argument is much more complex and is a combination of four main factors:

1. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Charlotte Observer: The biggest news around the conference (and country for that matter) is Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski attempting to pass Bob Knight as the all-time winningest coach in men’s D-I history Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden. The Charlotte Observer has two terrific articles up on Coach K’s early years as well as his relationship with Bob Knight. Both articles help frame Krzyzewski’s coaching career by looking at his roots. I expect there will be plenty of great content from around the country on Krzyzewski and the milestone this week, so definitely keep an eye on our Morning Fives for more highlights.
2. Associated Press: In news that didn’t surprise many college basketball fans, CJ Leslie has been suspended the first three games of NC State’s season for $410 of improper benefits. According to the university, a former NC State student let Leslie borrow his car and paid for his apartment application fees. Losing Leslie hasn’t hurt the Wolfpack so far, as they beat UNC Asheville (who gave North Carolina more of a game than it bargained for yesterday), and absolutely eviscerated Morehead State in their first two games. I’d be surprised if any more of this came from the NCAA investigation.
3. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Speaking of suspensions, Georgia Tech’s Glen Rice, Jr., was also suspended the first three games of the season for a “violation of team rules.” That’s fairly harsh punishment for an internal violation, which I and Atlanta Journal-Constitution‘s Mark Bradley take to mean new coach Brian Gregory means business:
   

   “Brian Gregory isn’t a smooth talker. Ask him the time and he’ll tell you, but he won’t give you a tutorial in watchmaking. He’s a Chicago guy, and he’s as subtle as Dick Butkus. What has passed for standard operating procedure at Tech won’t cut it with this coach, who’s known, in suitable unadorned fashion, as BG.”

   Gregory’s squad is off to a great start after dominating Florida A&M Friday.

4. Wilmington Star-News: Mark Gottfried has been “part salesman, part carnival huckster” trying to get the word out about his NC State team (and inspire some confidence in a weary and wary fanbase). Probably my favorite anecdote from the article is when Gottfried threw his jacket in disgust after a questionable foul call. The problem is that no one initially saw it, so he threw it again to the pleasure of the RBC Center crowd. NC State has a history of and Gottfried looks to try to join those ranks.successful, super-energetic coaches
5. Raleigh News & Observer and Winston-Salem Journal: Jeff Bzdelik has his work cut out for him in his second season as Wake Forest’s coach after an abysmal 8-24 first campaign. He’s instituted a motion offense to help account for lack of a post presence. But both of these articles focus on Bzdelik’s optimism on the upcoming season. No, the Demon Deacons aren’t going to compete for the ACC crown this year, but he believes that he’s starting to build a solid foundation for future success. He also has a good 2012 recruiting class that should infuse much-needed talent and size to the Demon Deacon roster next season.

Eight of the twelve ACC teams are beginning their seasons tonight, though Virginia Tech is playing their first game on Saturday, while Virginia and Maryland first play on Sunday. For whatever reason, Boston College won’t be playing a game until Monday. For this inaugural edition of Game On, let’s confine ourselves to looking at tonight’s slate of games.

Tyler Zeller and UNC Are Ready For Basketball

The Main Event
North Carolina vs. Michigan State 7pm EST on ESPN

The Carrier Classic is an exciting match-up in a unique setting between two storied programs who are both looking to make a run in the NCAA tournament this year. While this is the first chance for the nation to see top ranked North Carolina in action it’s also a time to see a Michigan State program that is in flux. Tom Izzo remains one of the best coaches in the nation, but the success of this year’s roster is hardly a sure thing. We may have spent a little bit of time talking about this game, but I can’t really remember.

The Undercard
Belmont at Duke 9pm EST on ESPNU

Lots of folks have this game pegged as a potential upset and it’s hard to say that they are wrong. Belmont is a sweet-shooting team that blasted it’s way through the Atlantic Sun Conference last season. This is a skilled and hungry team that failed to notch a truly big win in their otherwise successful 2010-11 campaign. Duke certainly fits the bill for a “quality win” and the inexperienced guards who play suspect perimeter defense might leave the Blue Devils particularly vulnerable to the high-volume three-point attack that Belmont thrives on. We previewed this game in greater detail over here.

For Connoisseurs
Loyola (MD) at Wake Forest 7pm EST on ESPN3.com

This is a dangerous game for a Wake Forest team that kicked off it’s last season by losing to Stetson. Loyola is a much better team than Stetson was, making them a real threat to a still-developing Wake Forest squad. Advanced stats like Loyola quite a bit, and in fact, the pre-season Ken Pomeroy rankings actually have Loyola ranked slightly higher than Wake Forest. Both teams really want this win, I’m sure, and while the home court advantage of Wake Forest might give them an edge, this game has perhaps the most potential of the entire night’s slate for an upset.

UNC-Asheville at North Carolina State 7pm EST

UNC-Asheville made the NCAA tournament last year while NC State did not. Granted, UNCA got in with the benefit of the Big South’s automatic bid, but that’s not to say that they are undeserving. The Bulldogs won plenty of games last season and enter the season hoping to repeat last year’s performance. The Wolfpack still ought to beat Asheville’s teamfairly easily, but at the very least, this game should give some insight into how realistic UNCA’s chances are at upsetting North Carolina or Connecticut later on in the schedule.

Jacksonville at Florida State 7pm EST on ESPN3.com

Jacksonville took out a very good Florida team in a shocking overtime win last year. Teams that have experience taking down Goliaths have a tendency to relish their David role. That said, last year’s Jacksonville team had a hard time scoring the ball. Starting off against the defensive juggernaut that is Florida State means that there is a very good chance that the Seminoles make Jacksonville’s offense look even uglier. Though Jacksonville does have a legitimate shot at an upset, there’s a much greater chance that Leonard Hamilton’s team turns this game into a rout.

For Fans Only
Florida A&M at Georgia Tech 8pm EST on ESPN3.com
Gardener Webb at Clemson 8pm EST on ESPN3.com
Tennessee Tech at Miami (FL) 7pm EST

It’s not that these are bad games per se, but most people who don’t have a dog in this fight aren’t going to be particularly entertained watching the ACC’s middle class stomp small-conference cupcakes. If you had to pick a game to watch, Tennessee Tech is probably the best among these challenging teams. Of course, this is the one game that ESPN3.com won’t be carrying.  Thems the breaks.

Belmont is good. This is no secret. In years past, Duke opening it’s season by hosting Belmont wouldn’t be a big deal: just another ceremonial squashing of a mid-major to inaugurate the season. But this year, Belmont seems to be designed explicitly for the sole purpose of shocking the Blue Devils. Duke is a good team and Mike Krzyzewski didn’t become the legendary Coach K by overlooking opponents. Duke will be ready to deal with Belmont trying to leverage their strengths against Duke’s weaknesses. That said, what exactly are Belmont’s strengths?

Does Rick Byrd Have The Ingredients Needed To Cook Up An Upset?

The Bruins squad is deep. Last year, they played eleven men for more than ten minutes a game. None of their players averaged more than twenty-five minutes a game. This depth is a necessary part of the Bruin’s clever, but physically taxing, pressure defensive scheme. This team plays fast (though not faster than Duke did last season) and tries to force turnovers with tough man to man pressure and trapping schemes. Last year, the Bruins were fairly successful, forcing turnovers on a remarkable 27.5% of defensive possessions, good for second best in the entire nation. Kerron Johnson actually managed to lead the nation in steal percentage, taking away the ball on 6.3% of posessions. No one in the nation even really came that close to matching that per-possession mark. Combine that with an old-school protect the paint mentality and the Bruins managed to successfully limit opponents field goal percentage (though admittedly at the expense of fouling a lot). Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency statistics rated the Bruins as the twenty-third best defense in the country, which is not too shabby. With the relatively inexperienced Duke backcourt, it seems very possible that Belmont should be able to have some success in forcing turnovers.

On offense, the Bruins could take down Goliath with the same tactic that countless mid-majors use: shooting a ton of threes. Belmont, last year, has no problem leaning on the three: 42.3% of all of the Bruins field goals came from behind the arc. Only seventeen schools in Division I shot more from three. Not only does the team take a lot of threes, but they make a lot. As a team, they made 37.8% of their three-point attempts, 33rd best in the nation. Surprisingly, the team rated even better on two-pointers, making 52.2%, the 19th best in the nation. While many teams pick their spots when they shoot threes, going to the long ball relatively sparingly, Belmont moves in the opposite direction, picking their spots on inside shots and only shooting high percentage shots created from keen ball movement. While the Bruins will certainly miss senior Jordan Campbell and his insane 45.8% three-point shooting, Belmont is well-positioned to maintain last year’s highly successful attack.

The irony of Belmont’s strengths is that they play into areas that are usually Duke’s strengths. The recent hallmarks of a Blue Devil team are an experienced back court that can apply excellent perimeter pressure and rarely turns the ball over on offense. With this year’s personnel, it’s unclear if Duke will be able to match previous year’s marks in this era. Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, and Austin Rivers are all skilled players, but their ability to play effective perimeter defense is largely unproven. In this year’s exhibitions, Duke had a hard time stopping dribble penetration and often found it’s guards getting beat by opponents. While Curry and Dawkins had relatively low turnover rates this year, it’s unclear if they will be able to maintain these rates when both players will be handling the ball more an expected to create their own shots.

Still, despite Belmont’s seeming match-up advantages, Duke still has what might be an effective trump card: size. Ryan Kelly, Miles Plumlee, and Mason Plumlee are big guys that are (usually) talented interior defenders. While Belmont goes inside less than most teams, it’s still an important part of their offensive game plan. If their is one statistic that bodes well for the Blue Devils, it’s that last year Belmont got blocked on 13.0% of all their offensive possessions, the third worst mark in all of college basketball. Mason Plumlee and Kelly both shared a real flair for blocking shots last year and if they get the chance, they have the potential to make things really miserable for Belmont whenever they look to score inside.

Still, it’s easy to see that Belmont has all of the pieces to pull off an upset. Will they? It’s the home opener for Duke. The home opener in a surely loud and rocking Cameron Indoor. If Belmont managed to catch Duke somewhat off-guard, maybe in the middle of the season or after another tough opponent, I’d like their chances better. I don’t think they pull it off tonight, but, at least on paper, the Bruins certainly look capable of shocking Duke.

For two teams that aren’t near each other, play in different conferences, and don’t have some sort of natural relationship to one another, it’s not an exaggeration to say that North Carolina and Michigan State have an intense and storied rivalry. It’s a rivalry that started out with an absolute bang.

Izzo & Williams Have Elevated This Odd Rivalry

In 1957, Michigan State had a breakthrough year with it’s first share of the Big Ten title and a run in the NCAA Tournament that took the Spartans to the Final Four. There, in the semifinals, the Spartans took on the undefeated Tar Heels in a triple overtime thriller that resulted in UNC eking out a 74-70 win. This led to a championship clash with an also-undefeated Wilt Chamberlain-led Kansas team that somehow also resulted in another triple overtime slugfest and a 54-53 North Carolina victory for Frank McGuire’s team. It was North Carolina’s first national championship. In a consolation game, Michigan State would go on to play the two-time defending champions, San Francisco, which was making its first Final Four run without the great Bill Russell.  With all the big names, undefeated teams, and pair of triple overtime games, it was undoubtedly one of the best Final Fours in history. It was also only the beginning of the Spartans’ rivalry with the Tar Heels.

Since that first fateful meeting in the 1957 Final Four, it seemed like these two teams were destined for postseason clashes.  On five separate occasions, the two have squared off in the NCAA Tournament, and, unfortunately, for the Spartans, each game served as a bitter reminder of ’57. What the ’98 and ’07 clashes lacked, the ’05 and ’09 matches made up for in terms of stakes and drama. The ’05 game was another Final Four bout that was chock full of exciting moments, while the ’09 championship tilt was a remarkable rematch between two teams that had played each other at Ford Field once already that season. Of course, the rematch turned out to be nearly identical to the regular season game and quickly turned into a UNC rout.

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Somehow, this is how the college basketball season begins in earnest: North Carolina plays against Michigan State on an aircraft carrier in front of the President of the United States. As much as I’ve read about this, the whole thing still seems pretty surreal. Yet here we are, one day out, and as near as anyone can tell, this is actually happening. Earlier fears of bad weather have subsided, as the storm that was headed for San Diego has stalled, meaning that the game won’t have to relocate inside the hangar bay. It will actually take place on the carrier deck. USA Today published a nice visual schematic of what the court will look like and offered a sense of the scale of this endeavor. Meanwhile, ESPN Sports Science provided a breakdown of how the players might deal with some of the complications of the game — namely seasickness and the vision problems associated with playing outside in changing light, while Eamonn Brennan offers a slightly less scientific take on the challenges. The US Navy itself had the most impressive feature, though, when they posted a YouTube video time lapse of the construction of the court. The effort took several days of work and the end result is quite impressive.

Both teams landed in San Diego on Wednesday and were treated to a tour of the facility and the nearly-finished basketball court. The North Carolina team didn’t even bother to even hide their amazement during the tour. Kendall Marshall and John Henson openly gawked at the court, while Harrison Barnes seemed fixated on recording the entirety of the tour on his phone. Marshall took a few pictures on his phone and Tweeted them to the world. Without even getting into the specifics of the game, I think it’s safe to say that we are in for a truly unique treat tomorrow evening. For more pictures from a Tar Heel-centric perspective, the UNC Athletic department has posted a few galleries of the players touring the ship.

ACC Basketball is upon us! The conference kicks off basketball with a bang tonight. Only two of the games are televised; luckily, they’re two excellent games. North Carolina is taking to the high seas to play Michigan State in the Quicken Loans Carrier Classic at 7:00 PM EST on ESPN. Meanwhile on ESPNU, Duke welcomes the talented Belmont Bruins to the unfriendly confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium in what many are (and should) be predicting as a potential upset at 9:00 PM EST. But on to the links!

1. Columbia Daily Tribune: Former Miami coach Frank Haith‘s new job didn’t get started off as planned. In addition to cries of dismay from fans at the hire (and apparently the Columbia Daily Tribune, which offers this description of Haith’s departure from Miami: “A guy facing an NCAA Tournament-or-unemployment season at the basketball backwater of Miami was suddenly in charge of a senior-laden team built to contend for a Big 12 title”, Haith brought baggage after the Miami scandal hit like a ton of bricks over the summer. However, his luck since coming to Missouri hasn’t been the best either: Mike Anderson left him no recruits for this season; he lost an incoming transfer and had another player leave; and he lost one of the team’s most pivotal players in Laurence Bowers to injury. Ouch.
2. Boston Herald: Steve Donahue is very, very patient. It’s hard to tell from reading this article whether Donahue is patient or just resigned. While it’s true you want to ground yourself in reality, it won’t help you recruit: “He’s conceded that he won’t win recruiting wars with ACC powers Duke and North Carolina for blue chip prospects.” The fact is, a good recruiter absolutely can win those battles (see: Sean Miller at Arizona or even Mark Gottfried at NC State in recent weeks). Boston College has something to offer high-level recruits that Duke and North Carolina do not always have available, though: playing time. The article also makes a great point that Donahue has a history of starting slow, as his teams faced losing seasons in his first six years at Cornell.
3. Burlington Times-News: With the additions of Pittsburgh and Syracuse, the ACC won’t just see its overall basketball talent increase, but it will also have to change scheduling dramatically. Currently teams play 16 games, four of which include home-and-homes against rivals (i.e., Duke plays North Carolina and Maryland twice every year) and three other rotating home-and-home series. But the addition of two more teams will mandate the conference move to at least an 18-game conference season (basically, the same parameters would exist with two more one-time opponents factored in). Nothing is as satisfactory as a round-robin schedule where everyone gets two shots against everyone else, but conference expansion has made that impossible.
4. Richmond Times-Dispatch: The writers over at the Richmond Times-Dispatch put together five trivia questions about the ACC. One very interesting fact I found was that Florida State has never won an ACC title (with the Seminoles’ last basketball title of any kind coming in 1978 in the Metro Conference). Although I’m going to disagree with number four: James McAdoo is not this year’s Harrison Barnes. Partially because Barnes came into last season so hyped (but mostly because guys like Barnes and Jared Sullinger returned for another year of college), the media hasn’t crowned any freshmen as the next big thing this year. If there’s an apt comparison for McAdoo, it’s Marvin Williams (the most gifted member of the Tar Heels’ 2005 National Championship team, who also came off the bench).
5. Asheville Citizen Times: Looking for a pie-in-the-sky local preview of the UNC-Asheville vs. North Carolina game coming up this Sunday? Then the Asheville Citizen Times is your paper! The piece actually points out a couple of interesting tidbits: (1) the last time Roy Williams generously christened a non-BCS arena, the Tar Heels lost to College of Charleston in 2009 (the year after the National Championship); and (2) the Tar Heels won’t arrive in Asheville until 5:00AM Saturday morning before the Sunday game because of a cross-country flight back from tonight’s Carrier Classic. UNC Asheville is the favorite to repeat in the Big South and to receive a 16-seed for the Big Dance.

EXTRA: Former Duke basketball player Reggie Love will leave the White House by the end of the year. Love is currently working on an MBA from the prestigious Wharton School of Business at Penn and cited focusing on education as the reason for his departure. In addition to missing a very valuable teammate for pick-up hoops games, President Obama will also miss Love for his cultural influence: “The president also credited Love for expanding his musical repertoire, introducing him to artists like Nas and Lil Wayne.”

Image of the Day:

The Aircraft Carrier Setting for Tonight's Game between Michigan State and North Carolina Looks Epic

With Signing Day buzz dying down, it’s time for a quick recap of the early signing period so far. Right now, the ACC has received 39 letters of intent and sports five classes in the top 25 according to ESPN. NC State leads the way with the third-ranked 2012 class, but North Carolina is close behind with the fifth-ranked class. Wake Forest, Maryland and Virginia check in with classes ranked #15, #17 and #18, respectively.

All Eyes Now Turn on Where Shabazz Muhammad Will End Up

A couple of big prospects are still on the board though, including top-ranked prospect Shabazz Muhammad, who is down to a number of high-profile schools including Duke. Tony Parker also still has Duke in the mix (and many analysts predict him signing with the Blue Devils in the spring). Amile Jefferson is also looking at nine schools including NC State, Maryland, Miami and Wake Forest (NC State is considered to be the favorite). All three are considered consensus five-star recruits.

You can find complete the roster signings after the jump.

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As the Central Florida finds itself caught up in an NCAA probe and more embarrassing tweets, the two Florida schools in the Atlantic Coast Conference will find themselves shorthanded as they begin play this weekend. At Miami, it was formally announced Thursday that DeQuan Jones will sit out the entire Hurricanes basketball season as the NCAA investigates his involvement with the improper benefits scandal that has enveloped the U’s football program. Jones is the only non-football player to be implicated in the Nevin Shapiro story, and it has been long speculated that Jones probably wouldn’t be playing this season anyway.

Unsurprisingly, DeQuan Jones Won't Be Playing Because Of Miami's NCAA Investigation

In slightly more surprising news, Ian Miller won’t be playing for Florida State during the fall semester either. It appears that the sophomore guard cannot play for the remainder of the fall semester due to academic issues. Miller was one of the backups to Derwin Kitchen for the Seminoles and was expected to compete for the starting point guard role.  Though he played limited, mostly unimpressive minutes in his freshman campaign, he has a good shot from the three-point line (35.8% last season) and could have brought some offensive balance to the post-centered Seminole attack. Miller came to Tallahassee as a big time prospect with a lot of potential, so if he can get his academic house in order by the end of the semester, his return to the lineup could really help Florida State heading into ACC play.

The last few years have seen increasing acceptance of tempo-free statistics like rebounding percentage, true shooting percentage and the all-encompassing offensive rating. Extrapolating team statistics with a handy usage percentage, those statistics have become the best method for describing players. ESPN doesn’t list a player’s usage and offensive rating next to his name in the starting lineup, but it does prominently showcase stats on its website (albeit largely for the NBA). College basketball bloggers are still the most prevalent disciples of Jon Gasaway’s and Ken Pomeroy’s movement, but coaches aren’t far behind.

While a player’s offensive contributions can be fairly assessed with offensive rating and usage, individual defensive metrics have been hard to come by. This year’s Sports Illustrated preview may be a huge step forward with Luke Winn and Audacity of Hoops‘ David Hess stepping up to deliver a defensive rating.

Is Bernard James the Best Defender in the Country?

Fair warning, the article on the web isn’t formatted very well, but the magazine piece should be significantly better. The five teams covered were Florida State, North Carolina, Ohio State, Connecticut and Vanderbilt. The findings are enlightening. Here’s a large image of all of the tables if you want to see the different teams. For now, I’ll just look at Florida State.

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