Sources: Gillispie Era is Over at Kentucky

Posted by rtmsf on March 25th, 2009

If what we’re hearing from sources in Lexington is true (and apparently, Jeff Goodman is hearing the same things), Anthony Grant may want to tell Alabama that he kindly appreciates their offer but he’ll need a couple more days to think about things.   As always, the coaching carousel is getting into swing (with Dave Leitao at Virginia merely the first major casualty), but this year’s avalanche stands to once again begin at the very top of college hoops royalty known as Kentucky.   Should the Cats lose their quarterfinal NIT game tonight against Notre Dame, will that be the end of the BCG Era at UK?  Many people in Lexington think so. 

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It’s no secret that the loyal followers of Big Blue are not exactly pleased with the way things have gone on the basketball court under the Gillispie regime.  Head-scratching substitution patterns, players refusing to enter games and/or leaving the team only to return later, the first NCAA whiff in an eligible year in twenty seasons…  but it’s been off-court issues that have also plagued Gillispie since his arrival in the Bluegrass that have amplified what goodwill he might otherwise have been afforded. 

His first year was filled with rumors of bar scenes where an inebriated Gillispie would make a fool of himself, getting to the point where UK was alleged to have hired a driver to keep him off the roads (even if unsubstantiated, the public perception was already enabled).  This led to speculation as to why Gillispie wouldn’t sign his contract with UK – instead working under a two-page Memorandum of Understanding – and subsequent allegations that his do-nothingness belied a motivation to avoid inclusion of a “morality clause” into the document.  Then there were the mystifyingly chilly interviews with ESPN’s Jeannine Edwards during the middle of this season, where “Billy Clyde” came off as a condescending putz unable to maintain decorum (with a lady, no less) in a public setting.  Sadly for Kentucky fans, a traditional bunch, these acts of show-your-arse by Gillispie fit the already-established narrative that their coach was a tough guy to deal with. 

dilbert-cartoon-office-politics

As we all know, there are two parts to any job – the outcomes side and the political side.  If you’re really good at outcomes and miserable at politicking, you can still skate by for a good while before the pitchforks catch up to you.  However, if you’re patently unexceptional when it comes to outcomes and still miserable at the political side, good luck finding people who will support you when the barbarians are ultimately at the gate.  And at a program like Kentucky, the barbarians are never too far from the gate.  That’s where Gillispie is right now.  Had he come in two years ago and lit a fire under the UK program to the point where the Cats were still playing in the NCAAs, much of his general surliness and extracurricular activities, whatever they are, would be brushed aside.  But there’s a pervading sense around UK that the much-maligned previous coach, Tubby Smith, could have taken a team with two all-americans to a (severely diluted) SEC title and/or the first round of the NCAAs.  Gillispie couldn’t even do that.  

So for Gillispie the equation looks like this – outcomes: mediocre + politics: miserable =  join the rest of us in the unemployment line.   

The question will now become… who?  where?  when?  One would think Billy Donovan (yes, him again), Travis Ford, Darrin Horn and even John Pelphrey would be on the short list of hopefuls.  Even John Calipari is purportedly intrigued.   It should definitely make for an interesting next couple of weeks as the shakedowns begin in earnest. 

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Silent Knight? I’m Not Buying It.

Posted by jstevrtc on February 3rd, 2009

 

John Stevens is a featured writer for RTC.  His column appears on Tuesdays throughout the season.

So of course now there’s speculation that Bob Knight is headed to yet another school where all he’ll have to do is change the logo on his red sweaters and he’s good to go.  I obviously don’t know if he’ll end up taking the position, but despite Knight’s feeble attempt to downplay the issue, I think we can say for sure that he’s considering it.

daylife.com)
Questions, Indeed… (photo credit: daylife.com)

Note how the initial reports stated that “a friend” of Knight’s stated that he was interested in the job.  Ok, fine.  But the General’s response to this?  He didn’t say anything about whether or not he’s talked to friends about the job, he never said anything about how his friends would NEVER talk to local media about Knight’s speculation over a job, he never said anything about how he flatly didn’t want that job.  In fact, he’s made it a point to reiterate his previous statement of “I never said I wouldn’t coach again, I’d be interested if the right situation came along,” though he adds that he hasn’t had any contact with anyone “at Georgia” about that particular vacancy.  “I haven’t talked to anyone from Georgia about it” is not an answer to the question. “Are you thinking about taking a job that an alleged friend of yours said you were interested in?”  Woodward and Bernstein would call that a non-denying denial.  Seems like Knight’s had contact with SOMEONE or else he’d be angrier and more direct in his lack of interest.  And he’d most certainly have this “friend” publicly flogged.
 
Another interesting wrinkle is the timing of this Pat Summitt situation, with her 1000th win coming up sometime soon.  Summitt didn’t get it on Monday, but as you likely know, they had Knight, as the all-time-winningest NCAA men’s coach, calling that game with Brent Musberger for ESPN.  I wonder how easy that is for Knight to be around.  I’m not saying he begrudges Coach Summitt anything, but the worship for the Tennessee coach has increased so much lately ahead of that pending 1000th win.  You don’t think a competitive guy like Knight wouldn’t mind a little of that reverence and adoration, himself?  To go down as the ONLY NCAA men’s coach to get into the quadruple-figures, and therefore don the implied “best-coach-ever” mantle that comes with a number like that?  I think Knight would consider that to be an absolute acquittal and justification for everything he’s ever done, and that might be to tasty a legacy to pass up.

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It was either this, or a shirtless Bruce Pearl. (photo credit: afrothunder.wordpress.com)

On Monday’s “Tirico and Van Pelt” program on ESPN Radio, the first question Mike Tirico asked Coach Knight was about the possibility of Knight taking the Georgia job.  You know Coach Knight’s response (as above).  But later on in that interview, in my opinion, came a more telling moment.  Mr. Tirico asked Knight about how he communicates with his son Pat after incidents like the one Pat just had down at Texas Tech, and specifically inquired whether the conversation more resembles that of a father-son interaction or if it is more like two coaches talking shop (a great question).  In his response, Knight hesitated for a moment, and then stated, “I just can’t stay away from it, Mike…” and explained that he basically let Pat consult him with basketball-related questions from time to time.  I don’t blame Pat Knight for this, of course — I mean, who wouldn’t occasionally call up their winningest-NCAA-men’s-coach-ever-dad for some coaching advice if they had the chance? — but does Bob Knight’s response to the Tirico question sound like a man who is ready to leave the coaching profession behind?  When your name comes up as a possible candidate for a coaching job and you’re saying things in interviews like “I can’t stay away from it,” no matter how you try to downplay your interest, I’m going to call you on it.
 
For what it’s worth, I totally agree with rtmsf’s earlier piece about Knight not being a good fit for Georgia (that second photo makes me think I’m personally a GREAT fit for UGA, but I digress).  He’d be a basketball coach going to a football school and I can’t see Bob Knight going anywhere where he doesn’t have the biggest office and, as Mel Brooks would say, the biggest schwartz, as it were.  And, as Mark Schlabach reported in a phone interview on ESPN.com on Monday night, the current president of the University of Georgia is Michael F. Adams.  And who is Dr. Adams good friends with?  Dr. Myles Brand, the current president of the NCAA…and the man who fired Knight from Indiana in 2000.  Methinks the current UGA administration and Mr. Knight might not see eye-to-eye on a few matters.

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The Smiling General. (photo credit: lubbockonline.com)

But Knight has never been one to back down from a challenge.  It might not be the best idea for Knight to go to UGA.  It’s also not a great idea to throw chairs across floors, physically threaten your AD, or hurl plants in your office, but that didn’t stop him.  Listen, I have no problem with Coach Knight taking the reins at some program.  I can’t blame a man who think he still has it in him to achieve excellence — and indeed, further cement his “all-time” status by breaking that 1000-win barrier.  There’s nothing wrong with wanting to be known as the all-time greatest at what you do.  I’d miss his wit on the GameDay set, but who knows, maybe he’ll take this job and be reborn and make everyone forget about Dennis Felton and Jim Harrick.  I don’t think it’s the best fit, but he could certainly prove me and rtmsf wrong.  In my view, though, despite his attempts to downplay the issue and make it seem like he’s not interested, I think we have a lot of evidence to the fact that he’s either considering the job…or he likes the attention, and at least wants us to think he’s considering it.

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Would Knight Make a Good Fit at Georgia?

Posted by rtmsf on February 2nd, 2009

By now you’re already heard all the hubbub about the possibility of Bob Knight leaving his ESPN media persona behind to get back in the saddle at one of these high-level SEC jobs that have recently opened.  Put specifically, Georgia.  From the AP report today:

Bob Knight could be ready to return to coaching and Monday said Georgia would be a desirable destination. “We would have the wherewithal to recruit and be able to compete with anybody,” Knight told ESPN on Monday. Knight, who resigned as the Texas Tech coach almost one year ago, said he would return to the sideline if offered the right situation. Georgia could be that situation.

Does anyone else think that this wouldn’t be a great fit for Knight or Georgia? 

Flickr.com)

The Locale Isn't the Problem (photo credit: Flickr.com)

Knight specifically said today that he would want to go to a school where he could recruit and graduate his players.   Ok, fair enough, but what coach wants to go to a school where you can’t recruit?  On its face, UGa, with its postcard-pretty campus and college town environs, should have no problem attracting top-flight student-athletes.  Within a two-hour drive of Athens, the ATL suburbs boast a wealth of top-flight hoops talent that SEC and ACC coaches annually feast upon.  Just as an example, 12 of the top 150 recruits in the Class of 2009 are from the Peach State,  according to Rivals.

But wasn’t that true for Dennis Felton and Ron Jirsa before him (we’re excluding Jim Harrick from consideration because of his and his son’s recruiting practices)?  Weren’t those same suburbs full of the same talent then, yet those players still chose to go to UNC, Alabama, Florida and Kentucky anyway?  The underlying problem at Georgia begins with poor coaching, but in the talent-rich SEC East, it ends with poor recruiting, and only once in the last six seasons has UGa had a top 25 class (#12 in 2005).  Why does anyone believe that Knight could change this?

Red Solo Cup)

Seriously, the Locale Isn't the Problem (photo credit: Red Solo Cup)

It seems amidst all the hype (typically, Vitale is the worst offender, claiming that he’ll become his assistant and chaffeur Knight around if he takes the Georgia job) that nobody is taking a sensible step back and wondering why Knight, a self-professed hater of the recruiting process, would want to walk into a football-school-of-all-football-schools situation where he’s not the BMOC (Mark Richt with 2 SEC championships will continue to own that title even with BK on campus) and try to convince kids to play for him.  If you look at his last decade-plus body of work (both at Indiana and Texas Tech), we’re not convinced that Knight can get Georgia prep stars to come to Georgia with any more regularity than Felton or Jirsa did.  If anything, Knight’s reputation as a hard-ass and the anti-“player’s coach” would probably end up working against him in the SEC – a league that tends to depend on raw God-given talent more than most others.   

We’ve said it before, but if Knight is serious about finding a final resting spot where he can shoot for 1,000 wins and hoops immortality, his best bet would be to pick a mid-major school with incredible fan support and a commitment to resources where he could recruit four-year players.  In a relatively short period of time, he could turn that school into another Butler (or, dare we say?) Gonzaga.  Forget this SEC stuff.   Knight would have more fun playing the underdog role at the smaller school anyway. 

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Breaking: Georgia Fires Dennis Felton

Posted by rtmsf on January 29th, 2009

Wow, maybe Damon Evans, the AD at Georgia, read our missive on SEC schools wising up after Mark Gottfried was let go on Monday.  From today’s Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

“I was hoping that we’d build upon the success that we had in the SEC tournament,” said Evans, referring to the Bulldogs’ tornado-interrupted championship run last March in Atlanta. “That’s what all the Georgia fans wanted; that’s what we wanted; that’s what Dennis wanted. We thought it would be a momentum-builder for us. To be where we are today is disappointing.”

Better Times for Felton and Georgia

Better Times for Felton and Georgia

Obviously, the final straw was Georgia’s 83-57 rape at the hands of Florida in Gainesville last night, as it was the Dawgs’ seventh loss in a row.  A meeting was set up between Evans and Felton this morning, where the coach was given the news.  Pete Herrmann, an associate coach, will take over the reins on an interim basis through the rest of the season.  Georgia plays Alabama on Saturday, which sets up a once-in-a-lifetime scenario where two teams will play a midseason head-to-head game in the same week where both head coaches were canned.  Call it the Pink Slip Bowl

Is Gary Williams Next?

Is Gary Williams Next?

By way of a post-mortem for Felton, he showed a lot of promise at Western Kentucky, winning three consecutive Sun Belt titles from 2001-03, but at Georgia, he never could seem to get over the wanton destruction that previous coach Jim Harrick had left in his wake.  With Florida, Kentucky and Tennessee in the SEC East Division, Felton was usually guaranteed six losses per year, and there was a seemingly constant influx of players moving into and out of his program.  It just never appeared that things got settled there.  Felton’s record at Georgia – two NIT appearances, 1 incredibly unlikely NCAA appearance and SEC Tourney title (the “Tornado Tourney“), and five+ years of general malaise in Athens (84-91 overall, 26-59 SEC).

Soon VCU’s Anthony Grant will be able to name his price with all these SEC schools calling. 

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Physician: Stroke Led to Olson’s Retirement

Posted by rtmsf on October 28th, 2008

We’re experiencing Lute Olson fatigue around here lately, but we wouldn’t be doing our job if we didn’t put a period on this story by reporting what Olson’s physician revealed to the world in a press conference today.  Dr. Steven Knope stated that Olson was being treated for severe depression and impaired judgment for several months and had not responded favorably when an MRI taken early last week showed that Olson had endured a stroke in his frontal lobe at some point within the past year.  Dr. Knope impressed upon Olson to retire from coaching, which he did last Thursday.  From the East Valley Tribune:

“He is frankly devastated,” Knope said. “This is something that is simply beyond his control.”  […] Knope said he had advised Olson in recent weeks to step down from his head coaching position, saying Olson “just couldn’t put the pieces together.”  Knope decided to request an MRI for Olson because he wasn’t responding to therapy and medication for depression.  “He knew something was wrong, but he couldn’t quite put his finger on it,” Knope said.

(Photo Credit: Tucson Citizen)

The doctor stated that Olson was otherwise in good health (he has a familial tremor and atrial fibrillation that are being treated), but there were concerns that additional stress from coaching could lead to more problems with his already-compromised judgment.  For Arizona fans, they can finally move on and put the mess Olson left in his wake behind them.  Already the Class of 2009 recruits are looking elsewhere, and the new interim coach was last seen stalking the sidelines in AAU ball, but there is a strong enough foundation there for continued success supposing the right person (Mark FewJohn CalipariJamie Dixon?) is hired to lead it.

Oh, and stay well, Lute.  Strokes are no joke.  We hope he can continue to live a life of freedom and facility.   

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Lute Olson Retirement Wrapup

Posted by rtmsf on October 24th, 2008

People have had over 24 hrs now to think about the ramifications of Lute Olson’s sudden retirement yesterday.  Reading through the various reports and testimonials on Lute’s career, we were struck by how many Arizona fans are absolutely livid with Olson’s handling of the past year or so.  While we’ve been the first around here to scold Olson publicly for his certifiable insanity of the past year, we sorta figured that UA fans would be a little more gracious for you know, creating something out of nothing, as a whole.  Guess not. 

Here’s what some folks, both MSM and blogosphere, are saying…

Pat Forde, ESPN Why can’t anyone else do that these days? What has happened to the graceful exit?  Lute Olson is the latest college coaching legend to thoroughly bollix his closing act. The Arizona basketball coach’s retirement was announced Thursday, ending a 12-month saga that did considerable damage to his remarkable rep. […] For the second straight season, Olson pulled the rug out from under his program at the worst possible time. For the second straight season, the school was left squirming to explain the erratic actions of a legend — at times seemingly compelled to fib on Olson’s behalf. For the second straight season, Arizona basketball has been thrown into turmoil by the very man who breathed life into it.  Sadly, a guy who projected an aura of control and composure has turned his exit from basketball into an absolute mess. Even sadder is the fact that Olson is merely the latest in a line of college coaching legends who don’t seem to know when or how to walk away.

Nowahoo, Thirty-Five Seconds – While it’s tempting to say that you or I would have handled our health or personal problems better, I think we know that’s wishful thinking.  The standards we (or at least Pat Forde) set for others in their final acts is kind of a joke.  Almost all of us will retire someday, but almost none of us will do so in a satisfying way.  Most of us will retire when we can’t make the commute anymore because of a slipped disc that never healed right, or when the people we work with stop giving us worthwhile work, or when the thought of one more condescending continuing ed seminar gives us the howling fantods to the point where we just fire off a retirement memo and hope we’ve enough in the kitty (or at least educated the shit out of our kids, so we can flip the script get our mooch on).

Paola Boivin, Arizona Republic A coach’s final ride into the sunset should be a leisurely gait, not a series of angry bucks and sudden halts.  Lute Olson’s brilliant coaching career, which came to a sudden end when he announced his retirement Thursday, will not be remembered without an unflattering footnote. When he had the opportunity to bow out gracefully from the basketball dynasty he built at the University of Arizona, he chose instead to let his final months be defined by conjecture, defiance, silence. It shouldn’t diminish his accomplishments, but the ending does reflect Mark Twain’s perfect description of golf: a good walk spoiled.

Gary Parrish, CBS SportsTruth be told, I never spoke with a person close to Olson during the past year who believed it was a good idea for him to return to the sideline. Most who know him well recognized a noticeable change in recent months, and now seems like as good a time as any to revisit a scene from what turned out to be Olson’s last game as a coach.

Dashiell Bennett, DeadspinPerhaps that’s because he decided to inform more important people first. The order of ranking goes something like this—insane color commentator, then the assistant coaches, then the families of the high school kids you are recruiting, your ex-wife, the mailman, the guy who runs the wax dispenser down at the car wash … then if there’s time, you tell your team and maybe your employers. It’s important that you respect the process.

Andy Katz, ESPN – On Monday, Chase Budinger gave maybe the most detailed description of Olson’s demeanor last year: “It was tough because in the beginning he really never gave the team an explanation of why he left. He felt very fatigued all the time. He looked tired.”   Budinger said there were times prior to when Olson took his leave of absence that he would make mistakes on the practice court. He said the coach simply wasn’t right.  “He kind of seemed like he was depressed all the time, it was kind of hard for him to coach out on the court,” Budinger said.

Dick Vitale, ESPN No one has been a bigger supporter of what he has done in Tucson. He is the ultimate Frank Lloyd Wright and has built the program into something very special over the years. Arizona had been in the depths of despair, and he took the school to greatness. There was an excitement in the desert that was so special.

Zach, Northwestern WinsThis entire operation has been botched. How do two fathers of Arizona recruits know the news, ESPN gets a gift-wrapped scoop on the news….yet prominent players like Jordan Hill and some administration have no idea where this story is coming from. It would have been wise to hold a team meeting this morning to alert the Wildcats and let the entire staff know before this leaked out (I know, easier said than done) rather than have members of the team “not knowing a damn thing” and spending the entire day thinking Lute Olson was their coach when I heard the news around 11:30 AM central time.

Scott Bordow, East Valley (AZ) TribuneOlson is not leaving Arizona gracefully. Players, recruits and, most certainly, Kevin O’Neill, have every reason to be upset about how he’s handled himself the past year. UA is in disarray, and he’s responsible.  But once those emotions subside, he’ll be remembered for his accomplishments rather than his departure. He came to a basketball Siberia 25 years ago and turned it into a winter wonderland.

Grant Wahl, CNNSII did interviews with his assistant and did speak with Olson last Wednesday for half an hour. It was clear at that point that he wasn’t as energized as he had been in April when he announced that he was coming back. I left that meeting thinking something might be up, and so I’m not entirely surprised by this news.

Achilles, (UCLA) Bruins Nation While I’ve rooted hard against Lute Olson’s teams over the years, I’ve great respect for what he accomplished. Arizona was not a basketball powerhouse when he went there, but he turned them into one. At their peak, Arizona teams played exciting, uptempo basketball. Olson also deserves respect as a top recruiter with an eye for talent.  More than anything else, it is sort of sad to see him go out the way he is now. Try and find his most recent press appearances on an Arizona site or YouTube. He’s become practically incoherent and appears to be in poor health.  I’ll personally prefer to remember him as a fiery, rival coach, prowling the sidelines for some really great UCLA-Arizona match-ups.

Vince Marotta, Arizona Sports Hub According to various sources, the fathers of two members of the 2009 Arizona recruiting class, Solomon Crawford (father of recruit Solomon Hill) and Abdul Gaddy’s father, Abdul Sr. both received information that Olson was retiring. Further judging from the reports, nobody from the University, nor the current players or their families were notified about anything. How do recruits know this information before the guys who already suit up for the Wildcats?

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Lute Olson’s Legacy

Posted by rtmsf on October 23rd, 2008

Now that we’ve had a little bit of time to digest the news of Lute Olson’s retirement from Arizona after 24 seasons, it’s time to take a look at his legacy.  Lute wore his humanity on his sleeve for the past year or so as he’s piloted the usually steady Arizona ship into some rough waters through a minefield of health issues, marital problems, leadership changes and various other snafus.  But for the previous 34 years of coaching, Olson has consistently fielded talented teams that were a threat to win it all.  Consider the following accomplishments of a first-ballot HOF career:

  • 781-280 (.736) in 34 seasons as a head coach
  • 3 losing seasons in 34 years
  • 1 National Championship (1997)
  • 5 Final Fours (1980 – Iowa; 1988, 1994, 1997, 2001 – Arizona)
  • 15 Sweet Sixteens
  • 45-27 (.625) NCAA Tournament record 
  • 23 consecutive NCAA appearances (1985-2007)
  • 11 Pac-10 titles
  • 2 National COY Awards (1988, 1990)

Photo Credit (Tucson Citizen)

Olson’s numbers place him in an elite group of one-title coaches, including contemporaries Jim Boeheim, Tubby Smith, Rick Pitino, Roy Williams, Tom Izzo, and Gary Williams.  The one thing, however, that separates him from those other names is that each of those coaches entered programs as new coaches where basketball was already an established way of life.  In Tucson, Lute Olson IS Arizona basketball. 

When Lute Olson stepped off the plane from the icy midwest in 1983, he encountered sunshine, babes and bikinis, but also an Arizona program that was so far off the map in terms of basketball success, you needed a magnifying glass to find it.  In the 78 previous years of its existence, the program had managed to make it to three NCAA Tournaments (1951, 1976, 1977) and three NITs (1946, 1950, 1951).  The combined NCAA record of those teams was 2-3, with both wins coming in the 1976 tournament (two upsets over Georgetown and UNLV to reach the Elite Eight).  The combined NIT record was 0-3, which meant that, upon Lute Olson’s arrival, the Wildcats had enjoyed only a single year (1976) in its basketball history with postseason wins of any kind.  To make matters worse, the team that Olson inherited was coming off the absolute worst year in the history of the program (4-24, 1-17 in the Pac-10). 

To say that Olson built the Arizona program up from the ashes insults the concept of fire.  After one mediocre year in 1983-84 (11-17), Olson found the mojo that he had utilized during previous stints at Long Beach St. (24-2) and Iowa ( 168-90), and set off onto the triumphant career in the desert that we’re talking about today.  The key, of course, was recruiting, and Lute mined the west coast hoops hotbeds (especially SoCal) on an annual basis, and it showed on the court.  Prior to Lute’s arrival in Tucson, Arizona had produced one first-round draft pick (Larry Demic in 1979).  Beginning in 1989 with the transcendental Sean Elliott, Olson put 13 first-rounders and 17 second-rounders into the NBA Draft, including such fantastic pros like Steve Kerr, Damon Stoudamire, Mike Bibby, Jason Terry, Gilbert Arenas, Richard Jefferson, and Andre Iguodala.  By the time Lute got it really going in the mid-90s, Arizona had become a chic destination school for America’s blue chippers, and he was able to recruit nationally – Jason Gardner (Indianapolis) and Loren Woods (St. Louis via Wake Forest) from the 2001 runner-up team come to mind, but there were many others.  Let there be no question – Arizona basketball wouldn’t exist on the national stage were it not for Lute Olson.  Here’s his crowning moment. 

 

There’s no doubt that Lute was a tremendous program-builder, teacher and recruiter, but if we had to pick one criticism of his illustrious career, it would be that his teams sometimes appeared to lose focus and/or lack motivation.  Maybe it was the laid-back lifestyle of Tucson or simply something about the kids Olson tended to recruit, but in our view, it is somewhat telling that he won his sole national championship in 1997 with a #4 seed.  Don’t take that the wrong way – that was a SICK team that just hadn’t come together until very late in the season (and we had the privilege of watch cut down the nets).  But they were an underdog in each of their three games against #1 seeds Kentucky, UNC and Kansas, and we always felt that Lute relished and managed the underdog role a little more than he was able to do so as the favorite.  Let’s make the case statistically.

As stated above, Lute Olson has gone to five Final Fours.  Here are the NCAA Tournament seeds for those years – #5, #1, #2, #4, #2 (avg. = 2.8).  Arizona also received five #1 seeds during Olson’s tenure.  Here’s the result for those five Tourneys – F4, S16, E8, R32, E8 (avg. = 2.6 games won).  When Lute was expected to go to the F4, he went once; when he was not expected to go, he went four other times.  This quick examination of the numbers confirms what we wrote last year when we surveyed the top overachieving and underachieving programs of the 64/65-team era of the NCAA Tournament.  From 1985-2007, Arizona averaged a #4.1 seed in the NCAAs.  The historical model (above) suggests that Arizona should have won 44.1 NCAA contests over this period – the Cats won 39, which means they ‘underachieved’ by nearly five Ws, and therefore puts UA in terms of performance in the bottom third of schools with greater than eight appearances over the era.  The most obvious examples of this phenomenon were first-round upsets in 1992 (#3 UA loses to #14 ETSU), 1993 (#2 UA loses to #15 Santa Clara), and 1999 (#4 UA loses to #13 Oklahoma).  Even Olson’s most talented and decorated team, the 1998 #1 Wildcats led by Mike Bibby and Jason Terry, had a major letdown in the E8 against #3 Utah, getting run out of the gym by 25 points.  What were we saying about focus and motivation?

(Photo Credit: Tucson Citizen)

It’ll be sad to see Lute Olson go.  Even last year, when Kevin O’Neill was busily turning Arizona into Tennessee ca. 1998 (ugh), we still thought the Silver Fox would make his way back to the sidelines again.  You could always count on Olson teams to have athletes who made the game fun to watch.  If his medical problems are serious enough to warrant missing another season, then he probably is making the right decision in riding off into the desert sunset.  Best of luck to him and his family. 

Now, about that Bob Knight looking to get back into coaching thing…  what odds did we lay?  10:1?  Associate coach Mike Dunlap is expected to take over the reins on an interim basis. 

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Sources: Lute Olson to Retire?

Posted by rtmsf on October 23rd, 2008

A mere two days after making comments to the media that he was “fired up” to be back for a new season, the Lute Olson Soap Opera continued in earnest today.  ESPN (through Rays megafan Dick Vitale) is reporting that Olson is retiring from Arizona after 24 seasons at the school.  (h/t The Big Lead)

Arizona’s Lute Olson is stepping down as the school’s men’s basketball coach, a source has told ESPN college basketball analyst Dick Vitale.  Associate coach Mike Dunlap will take over the head coaching duties on an interim basis, the source told Vitale.

As of mid-morning Pacific time, Arizona officials are vehemently denying these reports.  From the Arizona Daily Wildcat

UA sports information director Tom Duddleston said the news is not true.  “Dick Vitale is wrong right now,” Duddleston said in a phone interview with the Daily Wildcat.  When asked if there is any indication that any of the reports may be true, Duddleston said no.

(photo credit: Flickr)

This comes on the heels of a report that Olson missed practice and his annual Rotary Club Luncheon yesterday because he was sick.  Sick as in, a cold sick, not something more serious, according to Arizona sources. 

The reports further claim that Mike Dunlap, a current assistant coach for Olson, will take over the reins as the head man.  Dunlap’s previous head coaching experience was at D2 Metro State in Denver, where he was an astonishing 248-50 (.832) with two national titles at that level (2000 and 2002).

We’ll see how this shakes down as the day matures, but it has all the earmarks of a solid scoop.  Olson’s recent history of mania notwithstanding, we do hope that his medical condition is treatable and something that will allow him to continue to enjoy a happy, fulfilling life. 

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Where Will Bob Knight Land Next?

Posted by rtmsf on October 20th, 2008

Lost in the detritus of last week’s news was an interesting interview that Bob Knight did with a public television station in Indianapolis (WFYI), where he talked about various topics including cheating (“In college basketball, if you get caught cheating, they should shoot you because you’re too dumb to be alive.“) and his public image as a rude boor (“I simply tried to do what I thought was right. I never really particularly cared about what other people thought except those I knew knew what they were talking about.”).  But the truly newsworthy takeaway from the interview were Knight’s comments regarding a possible return to coaching someday.  From the AP:

“I got nothing else to do. It would just depend on the circumstances,” the former Army, Indiana and Texas Tech coach told host Mickey Maurer on “Mickey’s Corner” on Indianapolis public TV station WFYI.

(photo credit: Flickr.com)

There’s no doubt that this man loves yelling mentoring and coaching young minds about the nuances of the game of basketball.  And as much as he seemed a natural fit for studio work last March on ESPN, we’d give him only one more go-round before he ends up shoving a green highlighter up… physically assaulting Digger Phelps on national tv.

So we got to thinking…  if Knight wanted to take another head coaching job next season, where would his most likely opportunities lie, and which school’s set of circumstances would be most conducive to landing him?  To help us answer that question, we came across a neat site called Coaches Hot Seat, which purports to list the top twenty or so head coaches who are one more bad season away from the pink slip and unemployment line.  We whittled the list down a little bit (Billy Gillispie??? – puh-lease… that guy is adored in Lexington), but for good measure, we threw a few more names of coaches who are, um, for lack of a better phrase, approaching retirement age. 

 
We dunno, for some reason we can totally see Knight stalking the sidelines in his golden years somewhere like Lehigh.  Stay tuned.

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Johnny Dawkins to Stanford

Posted by nvr1983 on April 26th, 2008

After Trent Johnson left Palo Alto for the Bayou, we wondered who the Stanford administration would target as their next head coach. It looks like we have our answer as the Cardinals appear to have reached an agreement with Johnny Dawkins.

Duke great Johnny Dawkins (far left)

Many of our younger fans know Dawkins as Coach K’s right-hand man for several years now and a potential candidate for several D-I head coaching positions, our older (and more well-read visitors) are also aware of his exploits on the basketball court. Here is a brief list of his accomplishments:

– 1986 Naismith College Player of the Year
– #2 on the all-time Duke scoring list (2,556 points)
– Named one of the 50 greatest ACC players of all-time
– 10th overall pick in the 1986 NBA draft by the San Antonio Spurs (9 years in the NBA)

While I think that Dawkins will become a very good head coach, it is a pretty big jump from being an assistant coach (even at arguably the most well-known program in college basketball) to a head coach at a major D-I school in what might have been the best conference in the country last year. Dawkins will probably have a tough time the next few years especially with the Lopez twins leaving, but I think if Stanford gives him enough time he should transform it into a perennial Pac-10 power. Now the interesting question is how this will affect the Coach K succession plan as Dawkins was widely considered to be the favorite if and when Coach K decides to step down from his throne.

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