The NCAA released its first official RPI (ratings percentage index) standings. You’re probably already familiar with the RPI, but it’s really the most important ranking –despite being a skewed evaluator of a team’s success — because it’s what the NCAA Selection Committee relies on when evaluating teams for selection into the NCAA Tournament. The RPI’s basic formula accounts for a team’s winning percentage (25%), its opponents’ winning percentage (50%) and its opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage (25%). It also takes into account home and away (which it bluntly multiplies by 1.4 (for a home loss or road win) or 0.6 (for a home win or road loss). This makes the rating very favorable to good mid-major teams that play lots of nonconference road games against good opponents. A savvy BCS-conference coach can also manipulate the rating by playing some of these mid-major darlings at home or a neutral site.

Duke Occupies the ACC's Top Spot in the First RPI from the NCAA

Regardless of its inadequacies, the RPI is hugely important for Selection Sunday. Selection Committee members know and trust the RPI, even if Ken Pomeroy’s or Jeff Sagarin’s rankings are considered better evaluators of a team’s success. The important categories of the RPI are top-25, top-50 and top-100. Wins against the top-25 are gold; losses usually don’t hurt too much. Wins against the top-50 are critical (barring a very, very good record) for an NCAA tournament-worthy profile and a few losses won’t kill you. Wins against teams out of the top-100 are mandatory and losses to said teams should be avoided at all costs.

Now let’s look at the five most likely ACC teams to make the Big Dance: Duke (#2 in the RPI), North Carolina (#10), Virginia Tech (#38) and Virginia (#56).

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1. Duke Basketball Report: Florida State is off to a rough start, and the triple-overtime loss to Princeton fit right into the Seminoles’ disappointing non-conference season. But how rare is a 3OT game? Apparently, very rare. Barry Jacobs has a very interesting look at all games that went to three overtimes or more. NC State has the most quadruple-overtime games (two), but Georgia Tech takes the day because of its undefeated record in triple-overtime games.
2. Wilmington Star News: Brett Friedlander takes a look at some of the unknowns going into conference play. I think the biggest question will be how Virginia will perform against more familiar (and talented) teams. Now, whether NC State can make the Big Dance, I’m not nearly as optimistic. Sure, it’s still possible, but barring a Texas resurgence the Wolfpack are in serious trouble as far as quality wins are concerned.
3. Washington Post: An underreported aspect of Maryland’s turnaround has been Terrell Stoglin‘s defense. The sophomore scoring machine didn’t start when Mark Turgeon wanted to send a message about Stoglin’s effort on the defensive end of the floor, and apparently, the move worked. Now, the Maryland seven-game winning streak is pretty difficult to put a finger on because of the mediocre quality of opponents it has played the last few weeks, but winning games is winning games.
4. Winston-Salem Journal: NC State’s Lorenzo Brown, CJ Leslie and DeShawn Painter have all gotten praise at various times for their performances this season. One guy a little more under the radar is Richard Howell, who is absolutely dominating the glass for the Wolfpack this season. Howell pulled down 12 or more rebounds for the fourth consecutive time over the weekend against Western Carolina. It’s that kind of unnoticed play that will give Mark Gottfried’s team the grit to succeed in the conference schedule.
5. Carolina March: Here’s an interesting idea from Carolina March: piggy-back on bowl games with basketball games the night before. Miami, Georgia Tech, Maryland and three North Carolina schools all have bowl games very close to their campuses. Why not have a basketball game that tries to capitalize on the excitement surrounding their respective bowl games? It’s worth a thought, especially for Georgia Tech and Miami, which have both really struggled filling the stands consistently.

EXTRA: ACC Digital Network Video of the Day: Analyst (and North Carolina alumnus) JR Reid looks at shot-blocking and specifically John Henson.

1. Soaring To Glory: Five expectations for Boston College in the upcoming year. To make a long story short, the Eagles will get better and win more games (especially next season). Favorite expectation: “Victories in ACC game(s)”. I love it because it’s vague. If it’s just one game, are the rest moral victories? Halftime victories? The possibilities are endless. I do agree the Eagles should get much better as the season goes on. I’m not sure whether that’s worth two ACC wins, though the bottom of the conference is certainly weak enough.
2. Independent Weekly: Looking for a rant about Duke pasting Pennsylvania? You’ve come to the right place. Clearly, Adam Sobsey is tired of guarantee games that largely finance smaller athletic departments (seriously, check out Grambling State’s schedule starting with nine of 10 games on the road). Oh, it also has Star Wars references.
   

   At one point, Penn head coach Jerome Allen (a former four-year star player for the Quakers in the 1990s) could be heard calling a defensive set to his charges. He may have been saying ‘double flex’ or something like that, but mixed into the minor din of the sedate New Year’s Day crowd at Cameron, it sounded for all the world like he was shouting, ‘Boba Fett! Boba Fett!’ And indeed it would have taken a hired gun, a clone specimen, a rogue bounty hunter from the Dark Side, to give the Quakers a fighting chance last night. But, of course, Duke is the Evil Empire, right? Krzyzewski (and Calipari et al) have already recruited all the Boba Fetts. They go by names like John Wall and Austin Rivers—very obviously aliases. Some of them, like the Plumli, are even clone specimens.

3. Testudo Times: This article reads like a giant exhalation. And Maryland fans should be very pleased with the team’s December performance after a rocky start. Additionally, Pe’Shon Howard‘s return and Alex Len‘s debut give Mark Turgeon two more talented players to introduce into the rotation. The most interesting thing about the duo’s addition is the team’s new tempo. Without Howard and Len, Turgeon’s team looked like one of his past teams and was significantly below average in adjusted pace. Against Albany the Terrapins picked up the pace significantly, adding seven possessions (which would place them near the top of D-I). Keep an eye on this team’s style of play going into conference action.
4. Fayetteville Observer: Check out the key players for each ACC team as the conference looks to improve on a lackluster start. Personally, I totally forgot about Florida State’s Ian Miller (who failed to academically qualify last semester); he scored 17 in the Seminoles’ loss to Princeton.
5. The Sporting News: Old, wise coaches — Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams made the cut (and Gary Williams would’ve certainly made it had he not retired) — choose to avoid non-conference road games. To be clear, the coaches’ success probably plays an important role in being able to keep respect while avoiding the crapshoots that are road games. Invites to the NCAA Tournament are mainly about conference performance (for power conference teams at least).

GIF of the Day: Miami struggled to put UNCG away last night. This guy had a lot to do with it.

Awesome UNCG Alley-Hoop Against Miami (Mocksession)

1. Boston Globe: Al Skinner got fired from Boston College because of the perception that he wasn’t recruiting at the same level he used to (currently, he’s still looking for that next college job as an AAU coach). But if you look at the recruits he had lined up for the Eagles before he left, they’re all performing very well at various schools around the country. I still don’t see a go-to guy on Boston College’s team if you add this bunch to the roster, but it’s certainly worth mentioning after the Eagles fell to 5-8 after being blown out by Harvard.
2. Orangeburg Times and Democrat: It was a long flight home for Clemson after losing two of its three games in the Diamond Head Classic. Because of Oliver Purnell’s notorious non-conference schedules the Tigers are off to their worst start since 2003 at a disappointing 7-6. Despite generous preseason numbers, Clemson saw its ranking from Ken Pomeroy drop steadily over the first few weeks as the losses continued piling up. Barring a miraculous conference season (read: winning the ACC Tournament), it looks like Clemson’s streak of five straight NCAA Tournament appearances will end.
3. Washington Times: Maryland quietly bettered its resume with six straight wins, albeit against unimpressive competition. The Terrapins finally got a wire-to-wire win against Samford Saturday thanks to strong games from Pe’Shon Howard, Terrell Stoglin and Nick Faust. The win came after Mark Turgeon threw the entire team out of practice the day before. Faust finally found the basket from long range (playing off the ball has helped his game). Today the team looks to continue its winning streak against Cornell before heading into conference play.
4. Baltimore Sports Report: Luckily, expansion speculation and rumors have died down, but the moves from earlier this year leave several conferences with the challenge (or in the ACC’s case, opportunity) of rebranding (or reestablishing) the conference with its new members. The Big East has the most work to do, trying to move from a regional to national footprint, while the ACC looks to reclaim its basketball dominance with Syracuse and Pittsburgh preparing to join in the next couple of years. It was one thing to talk about, but the augmented conferences will be very interesting to watch going forward.
5. Wilmington Star News: What were the top 10 ACC stories of 2011? Brett Friedlander does a pretty good job paring the list down, but I totally disagree with his ordering. I know Miami‘s scandal has fallen out of the news with other scandals and its ongoing investigation, but it or conference expansion has to be number one. Mark Gottfried‘s hire was a big splash in North Carolina, but it was way less important than Gary Williams’ retirement or overall coaching upheaval for the conference. The list is still worth a read.

EXTRA: Finally, take a second and read over the inspiring story of a Duke fan who couldn’t pull against Pennsylvania yesterday because the school saved his life after his liver failed.

1. Washington Post: Virginia Tech‘s kicker was arrested and charged with breaking and entering into an on-campus residence before pulling a gun on those living there (also known as the far more serious crime of “home invasion”). How does that relate to the basketball team? Well… the resident was Dorenzo Hudson. Allegedly, Hudson’s roommate stole “a large amount” of marijuana from the defendants. Regardless, this is the type of story that decidedly does not go away or end well. We’ll certainly keep you posted on any forthcoming details.
2. Wilmington Star News and Charlotte Observer: Continuing with the bad news, Torian Graham de-committed for the second time (only hours after re-committing) to NC State yesterday. Graham, a consensus top-50 recruit from Durham, said “something came up” but did not elaborate on the story. It should be noted that Graham has a history of transfers (he’s also on his third high school), which certainly points to potential academic eligibility issues. From comments Pack Pride got from Graham later in the day, it sounds like he still wants to play for the Wolfpack (which certainly supports the academic theory).
3. Five-Star Basketball: For some more positive NC State hoops news, Adam Zagoria and Harrison Sanford are both very impressed with Mark Gottfried‘s first recruiting haul. Even without Torian Graham, the class is shaping up to be one of the best NCSU classes in years — especially if the coaching staff can land Amile Jefferson or Ricardo Gathers. Specifically, Jefferson was very positive in his review of the Wolfpack. Gottfried’s staff is also trying to expand its scope to the national level and is looking at a very talented group of 2013 targets from all over the country.
4. Wenatchee World: Tony Bennett took over for his father, Dick Bennett, at Washington State and was very successful. But Virginia is his first time building a program from scratch, which takes more effort from the coach as well as the players: “There’s no substitute for experience. It was that way with those guys at Washington State — [Virginia players] took their lumps their first two years. And the previous group before that just had to scrap and claw for any bit of respectability.” Well after a hot start, the Cavaliers are back in the Top 25 for the first time in four years.
5. Hampton Daily Press: David Teel takes a crack at the 18-game conference schedule once Pittsburgh and Syracuse arrive by looking at Mike Krzyzewski‘s model. Coach K wants the conference to move to one permanent rival with four “rotating” home-and-homes and the eight remaining teams played only once. While I agree with Tell that Duke and North Carolina are obvious (and essential) permanent rivals, but Wake Forest and NC State? That’s not to say the two schools don’t have a rivalry, but I’m not sure it’s at the “duh” level of the Tar Heels and the Blue Devils (in fact, NC State’s rivalry with North Carolina is much more heated). While I like the added diversity of Coach K’s proposition, I think it’d be a shame to lose games like North Carolina-NC State or Duke-Maryland (seriously, can you imagine if Duke didn’t have to play in College Park every year and vice versa). I vote for keeping the number of permanent partners the same.

Here are three thoughts about each team I garnered from Wednesday’s game in Chapel Hill. The observations on North Carolina probably hold a little more water, as the team is much more experienced. On the other hand, Texas will probably improve significantly between now and the end of the season.

• Reggie Bullock isn’t just getting love from bloggers for his defense; Roy Williams put the sophomore on Texas’ explosive J’Covan Brown whenever Bullock was in the game. Bullock’s length (he’s 6’7″) was definitely a factor, but he also did a very good job staying in front of Brown on most plays. After the game Williams’ one criticism was that Bullock didn’t box out well. But Bullock has earned the spot as the first substitute to enter the game (for Dexter Strickland), and his offensive skills make North Carolina a much more dangerous team when he’s in the game.

• Texas needs Myck Kabongo and Rick Barnes on the same page. Last night Barnes benched his star point guard for a lack of “discipline” and “purpose” on offense. Without Kabongo, Texas isn’t nearly as dangerous. The forwards in particular really need a facilitator to create play-making opportunities. Kabongo is also lethal in transition. The bottom line is your second-best player can’t be riding the pine in big games.

Reggie Bullock has Earned a Spot in North Carolina's Main Rotation.

• Harrison Barnes played his best game of the year offensively. Frankly, it’s not even close. Barnes scored in nearly every way possible. He scored in catch-and-shoot situations, isolation sets and on put-backs. He only had four offensive rebounds, but watching the game it felt like at least six or eight of his points came off those rebounds. This is the Harrison Barnes people were expecting when they picked him as a NPOY frontrunner.

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1. Wilmington Star News: North Carolina finally showcased its “championship potential” according to Brett Friedlander in its dominant buzzer-to-buzzer victory over Texas last night. The win also wiped away Roy Williams only winless series (against teams he’s faced multiple times since being in Chapel Hill). I would argue that the Tar Heels performance at Kentucky was nearly as impressive (they didn’t play as well, but it was in a very hostile environment against a much better team). Still, this was the team people expected when they universally picked the Tar Heels atop their preseason polls.
2. Durham Herald-Sun: This season is the first time in Austin Rivers‘ life that he’s been able to play in front of his dad. Unfortunately, he’ll have to readjust to his father’s absence with the NBA starting back up on Christmas Day. But it sounds like both generations enjoyed Doc Rivers‘ chance to watch his son start his career at Duke. It will be interesting to see how many more Duke games the Celtics’ coach will be able to attend this season, if any, with the condensed NBA schedule.
3. Hampton Daily Press: For the first time in a few years, Virginia and Virginia Tech appear to be the rulers of the state in basketball, as both ACC teams check in in the top-50 of the RPI. A down ACC will help the teams’ possibilities of making the Big Dance, but I still doubt the Hokies sneak in as an at-large. Last year, neither team made the NCAA Tournament, but five total schools from Virginia did. This year, one or two others may sneak in, but Virginia is the commonwealth’s best shot at an at-large bid.
4. Pensacola News Journal: Florida State‘s game against in-state rival Florida may not determine the success of a given season (like in football), but you can bet your bottom dollar that the coaches and players on both sides are fired up about the game. For the Seminoles, it’s a chance to touch up three early season mishaps. For both teams it’s a chance at a rival and probable NCAA Tournament team. It’ll be a fascinating match-up: elite offense versus elite defense.
5. Testudo Times: Maryland takes on Radford tomorrow. To be clear, Radford is not good this year. But Maryland fans are looking forward to this game, as it may be their first look at Maryland’s offense with Pe’Shon Howard (MVPe’) back in the line-up since he was forced to the bench with a broken foot in October. Howard’s return should take some of the pressure off Terrell Stoglin to create everything and possibly open up some looks for Nick Faust and Sean Mosley in the process.

Matt Patton is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report from tonight’s Texas vs. North Carolina game in Chapel Hill.

North Carolina absolutely pummeled Texas from buzzer to buzzer Wednesday night in Chapel Hill. From the opening tip the Tar Heels came out swinging, and the Longhorns immediately departed from the game plan. Needless to say Rick Barnes was livid after the game. He noted his team’s lack of offensive discipline, which he implicitly tied to Myck Kabongo‘s poor first half play. Apparently, Kabongo abandoned the team’s plan for the opening possession for the second straight game. After a horrendous first half, Barnes only played his freshman point guard two minutes in the second half. Why? “Guys aren’t gonna play if they don’t want to play.”

Myck Kabongo is still Adapting to the College Game.

Inconsistent point guard play has plagued Texas two of the last three seasons. Two years ago, Barnes rotated Avery Bradley — a score-first guard — and Dogus Balbay — a defense-first creator — at the one to mixed success. The Longhorns climbed to the top of the polls only to plummet in conference play before eventually losing to Wake Forest in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. Last year, again Barnes employed two point guards with Cory Joseph and Balbay running the team. The team’s offense was significantly more productive thanks in large part to Jordan Hamilton’s development and Tristan Thompson’s ownership of the offensive glass. Coming into this year it finally looked like Barnes had one point guard, the freshman Kabongo.

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Please accept my sincerest apologies for the absent Morning Five yesterday. I hope a double-dose of links will help ease the pain.

1. Run The Floor: In case you can’t tell, I’m a big fan of defensive charting. Michael Rogner has charted the defensive work of Bernard James, John Henson, Josh Smith and Anthony Davis. Putting on your ACC goggles, you can also check his piece over at Tomahawk Nation that ignores the non-Seminole players. The findings are very interesting. Basically, without Chris Singleton, the Seminole defense is elite with James in the game and above average with him on the bench. With James on the court, Leonard Hamilton’s squad allows only 0.75 points per possession, but with him on the bench it allows 0.91 points per possession. That’s a gigantic difference. For comparison’s sake, Henson “only” affects North Carolina’s defense by 0.11 points per possession.
2. Durham Herald-Sun: James Michael McAdoo is off to a relatively slow start for North Carolina this season, and Roy Williams thinks it’s his lack of aggression to blame. Against UNCG, “Williams turned to the bench and said that if the 6’9″ freshman didn’t dunk the ball next time, everyone on the team would run sprints while he sat McAdoo on a lawn chair and served him lemonade.” McAdoo’s talent is undeniable, but his transition to the college level has been far from smooth.
3. Washington Post: Coaching legend Larry Brown made another short stop (zing) to visit his former player, Mark Turgeon, at Maryland’s basketball practice recently. Despite playing for North Carolina, Brown called Maryland a “special place” with a “special coach.” The only coach in history to win an NCAA championship (1988) and an NBA championship (2004) also gave some advice to Turgeon.
   


4. Basketball Prospectus: Drew Cannon evaluated Kendall Marshall as the 70th best basketball player in the country during the offseason, which was substantially below where pretty much everyone else places the unique North Carolina point guard. But Cannon realized that “[he] was evaluating players in terms of ‘how many wins would this player add to a randomly assembled team of college players?’ while everyone else was evaluating players in terms of ‘how many wins will this player add to his team?'” It’s an important distinction to make, and a valuable one. I still think he had Marshall a little undervalued (and most have him overvalued), but it certainly provides some food for thought (also, don’t be surprised to see some more content this week in a similar vein).
5. CollegeHoops.net: It’s probably not surprising that three ACC teams are in the Top 25 this week. What may be surprising is which three teams made the cut. Instead of Florida State, Virginia‘s hot start earned the Cavaliers the conference’s third spot in the AP and Coaches polls. This raises the question of which team is actually better. Florida State has played a tougher schedule, and definitely has the athletic advantage on defense. But Virginia’s offensive and defensive numbers are a little better at the moment. This debate will definitely be something to keep an eye on moving forward. The second half of today’s links is after the jump.
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Miami just got one of its missing pieces back according to the school’s release, which stated that senior DeQuan Jones can compete effective immediately. Jones was suspended for allegedly accepting impermissible benefits from renegade booster Nevin Shapiro. The Hurricanes got the go-ahead from the NCAA to reinstate Jones although they did not comment any further.

Here is the Miami’s official statement:

The University of Miami, after consultation with the NCAA, has announced that senior basketball player DeQuan Jones can return to competition immediately. In order to protect the integrity of the ongoing joint inquiry, the University will not comment further at this time.

DeQuan Jones Has Been Reinstated To Play For Miami.

What does the addition of Jones mean for the Hurricanes? Most importantly, they get a lot taller. Jones will immediately become the third-tallest player in Jim Larranga‘s rotation behind center Kenny Kadji and back-up center Raphael Akpejiori. But don’t expect Jones to be a savior on either end of the floor. He came to Coral Gables a consensus top-25 recruit based largely on his athleticism (see the video below from his freshman year for evidence), but Jones has struggled to live up to his hype, never having the breakout season many expected of him. However, don’t underestimate the importance of a tall, athletic player on a team that really struggles rebounding the ball. If Jones can be a little more consistent shooting the ball, he could be a very valuable fourth option for this team (once Reggie Johnson returns).

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