Some Saturdays just demand a little extra attention. This Saturday certainly qualifies. Aside from the marquee matchup, five other ACC teams are in action early this afternoon.  Most of those games have a certain spice to them, so kick back, relax and see how the teams of the Atlantic Coast Conference play in the middle of the day.

Some Boring Low Stakes Game That No One Cares About

The Cats and Heels Will Tip It Off in Lexington Today

• North Carolina at Kentucky at 12:00 PM on CBS

It’s shocking to me that this game is even on television. I mean, who cares? Do people even know that this game is happening? I’m sure if you look hard you might be able to find some preview of this game.

Mid-Major Heavy vs. Power Conference Lightweight

• Richmond at Wake Forest at 1:00 PM on ESPN3.com

If Richmond pulls of a win, it’s more than likely that the word “upset” will be thrown around. Just so that we are properly oriented, it’s important to note that Richmond is pretty good this year while Wake Forest is still recovering from last season’s disaster. Ken Pomeroy’s ratings put Richmond at #60 while Wake Forest is currently ranked at #162. With the game going down in Winston-Salem, there is a strong chance that the teams will be pretty evenly matched. Also worth watching is the contrast of offensive styles: Richmond plays slow and launches a barrage of threes while Wake Forest has an up-tempo but more balanced attack. I am particularly curious about what happens when Wake Forest misses a shot. So far this year, the Demon Deacons have shown little to no interest in crashing the offensive glass while the Spiders are among the worst in the country at collecting defensive rebounds. The potential is here for the most indifferent battle of the boards on the season.

A Shot At A Rare Win

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The big game is tomorrow, and even if it’s probably not going to be “The Game of the Millenium,” there will be an unbelievable amount of talent on display as two contenders go head-to-head in Lexington. Right now, let’s take a good hard look at North Carolina and outline some strengths and weaknesses. (ed. note: the Kentucky analysis is here)

Strengths

• North Carolina Matches Up With Kentucky: Kentucky has one of the most freakishly athletic line-ups in the country. They are taller, longer, faster, and stronger than just about any team in the country. In North Carolina, the Wildcats meet a team that won’t feel over-matched on the basis of sheer athletic talent. The dominating performances that Kentucky has had early in the season will be harder to replicate against a very athletic Tar Heel team.
• North Carolina Can Contain Terrence Jones: The two times that Jones has faced North Carolina, he hasn’t been able to dominate games. In fact, he’s struggled against the Tar Heels. Last December, Jones went three of 17 from the field on his way to a nine-point, six-rebound game. In the Elite Eight, he was also quiet with 11 points and seven rebounds, and turned the ball over four times. As talented as the team is, Jones is still Kentucky’s leading scorer and a bad game from him could hurt the Wildcats.

Jones Has Struggled Against The Tar Heels

• Depth: So far this year, Kentucky has used a very shallow rotation that leans heavily on the starters while giving plenty of minutes to the experienced Darius Miller and using Kyle Wiltjer in spot minutes. North Carolina, by contrast normally goes eight deep with its standard rotation with spot minutes going to Justin Watts, Desmond Hubert, and Stilman White. With such a talented team, it makes sense that Kentucky’s rotation is pretty shallow, but there are two ways that this can hurt the Wildcats. Against North Carolina’s up-tempo attack, players tend to get tired more quickly, and often need rest. If Kentucky doesn’t pay attention, they may find their best players going into the final minutes with tired legs. Worse, a shallow rotation is vulnerable to foul trouble, something North Carolina excels at creating. Last December, four Kentucky players fouled out against North Carolina, including three starters. John Calipari will have to carefully calibrate the level of physicality he wants his players to bring on defense, or he might find his team in crunch time with his best players out of the game.
• Experience: As a young team, North Carolina doesn’t often get to play the experience card, but against the youth of Kentucky, the Tar Heels seem like grizzled veterans. Starting a senior, two juniors, and two wise-beyond-their-years sophomores in Harrison Barnes and Kendall Marshall, this UNC team expects to play more cohesively and with better chemistry than their young adversaries who are still trying to learn each other.
• Payback: Kentucky was the team that ended North Carolina’s NCAA Tournament run. After North Carolina’s loss last Saturday, Kentucky supplanted the Tar Heels at the top of the polls. The Wildcats have taken what North Carolina felt belonged to them and that’s a powerful motivation. Beyond team feelings, it seems like Zeller has a personal vendetta against Kentucky. Of course, the wry and stoic big man seems unlikely to get worked up by, well, just about anything, but it was in the Kentucky game during Zeller’s freshmen year that he broke his wrist. Since then, he’s always played well against Kentucky, whether in back-up minutes in 2009, or in a starring role in 2010 and 2011. Last December, Zeller scored a team-high 27 points on 13 shots while collecting 11 rebounds and five blocks. In the losing effort in March, he managed 21 points on 12 shots, nine rebounds, and four blocks.

Apparently all it took was a bit of concentration and, suddenly, a North Carolina team that looked disorganized and unfocused against UNLV was playing exemplary defense against Wisconsin. Kendall Marshall, who struggled on that end against the Running Rebels, did well in his stints guarding perhaps the most offensively potent point guard in the country in Jordan Taylor. John Henson and Tyler Zeller, for the most part, kept good track of their rotations, provided near-perfect help defense and stayed focused for the whole shot clock. Dexter Strickland’s campaign of perimeter harassment against Taylor was some of the best on-ball defense I’ve seen by any North Carolina player in the past decade. Aside from a few critical missed rotations (notably one that lead to an open three for Taylor in the final minute), the defense simply looked exemplary.

The Heels Were Lucky to Escape Wisconsin With a Win (AP)

As for the offense, I’m less sure. While the Tar Heels shot 42.2% against the second-best defense in the country, turnovers plagued the team. North Carolina had fourteen turnovers in a slow game, a difference that kept Wisconsin in the game down to the very last minute. Think turnovers don’t matter that much? North Carolina had 45 field goal attempts while Wisconsin had 64 shots from the field. Wisconsin had nearly 50% more chances to get a bucket than North Carolina. Only great defense by UNC and 19 points from the free throw line kept the team from giving up to the Badgers. Marshall alone managed to tie Wisconsin’s entire team with four turnovers apiece. It’s honestly near-miraculous that North Carolina won given the discrepancy in number of field goal attempts.

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A lot of the effort in basketball analytics goes towards the good things that players do that do not appear in the box score. This is the driving idea behind Michael Lewis’s seminal New York Times feature, “The No-Stats All-Star,” an early look at analytics in the NBA primarily focused on Darryl Morey, Shane Battier, the Houston Rockets, and adjusted plus/minus. This makes sense: finding hidden strengths is the coach’s angle while finding hidden value is the economist’s angle. As a result of the fine work of smart guys with formulas and others with a willingness to watch a lot of games closely, Charles Jenkins and Nate Wolters were household names last season. This, of course, assumes that your household is filled with basketball dorks, but you get the idea.

Faried Was An Underappreciated Star

Finding diamonds in the rough is a noble pursuit and talking up the greatness of underexposed and underrated players is a worthwhile task (Hey there, Kenneth Faried!). Sometimes, however, there is a joy in using analytics and “advanced” statistics to look for the guy who is hurting his team the most.  Let’s ignore the diamonds and go straight for the rough.

How does a player hurt his team? Well, when push comes to shove, there are basically only two ways: offensively and defensively. Sadly, however, contemporary box scores assign no grade for bad defense to the individual outside of counting how many fouls (which could very well be offensive) a player commits. Our primary understanding of player’s individual defense comes only in positive contributions like blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds while the effect on an opponents shooting percentage is measured at a team level. The noble effort of Luke Winn, David Hess, and others that has sought to enact Dean Oliver’s defensive charting schemes is a good start at really quantifying individual defense, but a very small percentage of Division I games have been looked at in this way making the approach of limited use to someone who wants to look at the whole of college basketball. So, acknowledging that analytic approaches to finding bad defensive players are limited, let’s at least take a quick look at fouls.

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Duke got a shellacking from a very good Ohio State team who managed to deny the ball to and otherwise nullify the efficient scoring triumvirate of Ryan Kelly, Seth Curry, and Andre Dawkins who combined to score seven points (all Curry’s) before a disgusted Mike Krzyzewski benched the trio. On the other end, the Blue Devils were unable to stop a brutally efficient Buckeye offense that shot 59.3% from the field and included four players scoring over seventeen points. Other Big Ten beat downs were provided by Northwestern who stomped Georgia Tech with John Shurna‘s versatile offensive game and Purdue who simply devastated Miami with good looks at the basket and even better shooting. Maryland had the lead over Illinois for a nice chunk of that game, but Nick Faust’s trigger happy ways (2-11 shooting) continue to hurt the Terrapins as the Illini rallied to win the game.

The ACC Needs To Reassert Itself After Last Night's Disaster (Credit: AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)

On a positive note, Virginia got a quality win against Michigan in Blacksburg. The Cavaliers locked down Tim Hardaway Jr., holding him to only five points, while managing to get to the charity stripe at a much greater rate than Michigan. The Wolverines shot better from the field and better from the three-point line than Virginia, but making seventeen free throws while Michigan made only four gave the Wahoos the win. The other ACC silver-lining comes courtesy of Clemson which managed an impressive showing on both the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. Iowa simply had no answer for Andre Young’s five three-pointers and another ridiculous all-round game from Tanner Smith who had only seven points, but managed to get fourteen rebounds and eight assists.

Tonight’s the second night of the Challenge and the ACC has a steep hill to climb. The conference would have to win five of tonight’s six games to outright win. That seems like a tall order, but let’s at least look at the match-ups.

The Heavyweight Match-Up

• #7 Wisconsin at #4 North Carolina at 9:30 PM on ESPN

This is a big one. The former overwhelming #1 takes on a Wisconsin team that’s been nipping at the heels of the nation’s top teams. A win in Chapel Hill would go a long way towards showing that the Badgers belong in the National Championship conversation. A refocused Tar Heel squad hopes to bounce back from their loss to UNLV and show the world that they mean business and that they are ready to take all comers. Much more about the contest here.

The Undercard

• Indiana at North Carolina State at 7:15 PM on ESPN2
• Virginia Tech at Minnesota at 9:15 PM on ESPN2

North Carolina State showed that they weren’t scared of the big boys by taking down Texas, but Indiana is an even tougher match-up. The resurgent Hoosiers have managed to put together a sterling campaign early in the year, including a big win over Butler, and some of the gaudiest shooting percentages in the sport. Indiana is the better team, but the Wolfpack has been battle-tested and has shown flashes of potential that hint at a team that’s on the rise. Indiana should win, but there’s something about the ferocity of this NC State team that makes me think that if Indiana comes out sluggish, they are simply toast.

Meanwhile, in the frigid north, Virginia Tech has good shot at taking down a short-handed Minnesota team. With the injury to Trevor Mbakwe, it’s no longer clear that the Golden Gophers can even be considered the favorites in this game. Playing at home helps, but the Hokies have showed toughness in taking down Oklahoma State and were impressive against Syracuse, even if they didn’t get the win. Erick Green and Dorenzo Hudson are quickly meshing into a lethal back court unit while Dorian Finney-Smith‘s versatility from the forward spot continues to impress. I think Virginia Tech wins this one, but with the injury to Mbakwe and the loss to Dayton, Minnesota has too much to prove to go down quietly.

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After a tough loss to UNLV, North Carolina faces a tough match-up if it wants to bounce back: a slow, methodical, and lethal Wisconsin Badgers. Though Bo Ryan‘s team has yet to be truly tested, with the best win on its résumé a neutral court win over the Jimmer-less Brigham Young University, Wisconsin’s style seems tailor-made to challenge the Tar Heels.

The two teams are diametrically opposed in terms of pace with the Badgers plying at the slowest pace in Division I and North Carolina playing at the fifth quickest. North Carolina’s primary struggle against the Rebels was difficulty defending the three-point line; Wisconsin has shot 47.2% from beyond the arc on the season. The Badgers aren’t shy about shooting the long ball either, shooting 42.6% of all field goals from long range. North Carolina was exposed on Saturday as a team that wasn’t prepared to adequately defend the perimeter and if Roy Williams hasn’t corrected this issue, the Tar Heels are in for a long night.

Jordan Taylor Leads A Wisconsin Team With Few Weaknesses

Defensively, Wisconsin has been stout. For the past few years, Wisconsin has had a reputation as an incredible defensive club, and while the Badgers have been good, the defensive prowess of the team has been overrated because of an over reliance on “points per game” and “scoring margin.” Since 2009, Wisconsin has combined a sloth-like pace with brutally efficient offense  and good, but not great defense. Folks see the low final score and the impressive scoring margin and figure that the team locked down their opponent. In recent history, that’s not really been the case. This year, however, the defensive reputation has been earned albeit against an extremely weak schedule.

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Boston College does not have a good team this year. It’s likely to get better as the year goes on, but any amount of improvement is still likely to find the Eagles in the basement of the ACC. This weekend seems like it might be a microcosm of the rest of the season for BC: Friday saw the young team eke out an overtime win against equally woeful UC Riverside thanks to the heroic effort put forth by Patrick Heckmann and his 32 points on 13 shots scoring performance. Then, on Sunday, the team got blown out by New Mexico. Matt Humphrey led the way with a very inefficient 12 points on 18 shots. This looks to be the future of Boston College: Tough wins behind Heckmann or the team chucking up misses on the way to clear routs.

Patrick Heckmann is an Efficiency Dream (AP/A. Gallardo)

Heckmann’s early promise has been pointed out and analyzed before, so I’m not going to waste a lot of time talking about the clear-cut best player on the team. However, I will use him for the sake of comparison: So far this season, he has scored 69 points for his team on 38 shots. Humphrey, the second leading scorer, has scored 66 points. It has taken him a whopping 73 shots. In per game terms, Heckmann is taking 7.6 shots a game and making them at 47.4% rate. Humphrey is taking 12.2 shots a game and making them at a 27.4% rate. It doesn’t take a genius to realize that offense is being allocated inefficiently. This team needs to fall behind Heckmann, giving him more touches while simultaneously decreasing Humphrey’s role in the offense.

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The Seminoles had a tough weekend, taking a pair of losses to Harvard and Connecticut. With their already marginal status in the polls, Florida State looks poised to slip from the public consciousness, which is a shame, because despite their offensive deficiencies, the defense is as nasty as ever and close losses at neutral sites against talented teams is hardly a severe indictment. Still, polls tend to punish losses regardless of context, Leonard Hamilton‘s crew is just going to have to play the same way they have played for the past two years: outside the limelight. The Seminoles are used to it, but nonetheless, it’s a shame, because the team has strung together a series of ridiculous defensive stands.

Bernard James Leads A Truly Impressive Florida State Defense

There are two things that this team does ridiculously well: force missed jumpers and get their hands on the ball. On the season, FSU has held opponents to 22.8% from beyond the arc, blocked nearly 20% of opponents shots, and stolen the ball on nearly 15% of opponent’s possessions. Over one third of opponent’s offensive possessions ends with a block or  a steal. That’s staggering. Connecticut’s starting back court of Shabazz Napier and Jeremy Lamb turned the ball over ten times against this defense. In the three games prior to the Connecticut game, the Seminoles held Harvard, Massachusetts, and South Alabama to a combined seven of sixty-six from beyond the arc. That’s 10.6% from three over the a three=game span. Is there any other team in the country capable of that kind of lock-down? The defense is just nasty.

Of course, the offense is nasty as well, but in the traditional sense. If missed shots and turnovers are the hallmarks of Florida State’s defense, I’d have to also characterize those two elements as the hallmarks of Florida State’s offense. Any game that the Seminoles play in is going to be ugly if you like sweet-shooting guard play or effortless offense. Nothing comes easy against the Florida State defense, and the team’s collective ability to frustrate opponents is one of the most compelling sights in college basketball.  Florida State is out of the spotlight for now, but you should make an effort to keep track of them anyway. A defense this good will always be a factor come March.

There is a formula for an upset, and it is as old as the three-point line: make your shots from beyond the arc, slow the pace, and play physical, punishing defense. UNLV did two of the three, opting to keep the pace up, but their execution was perfect. Since last season, the flaws of this North Carolina team have been no secret: John Henson and Tyler Zeller get frustrated by strong physical defense, Kendall Marshall is a mediocre on-ball defender, and the UNC defensive system that relies heavily on rotations and recovery is susceptible to three-point shots from the weak-side, particularly after collapsing against a drive. If you are experiencing an odd sense of déjà vu, it is because this is almost exactly the blueprint that Kentucky exploited to beat the Tar Heels in the Elite Eight. It worked then, it worked last night, and there is a good chance that it will work in the future.

Marshall's On-Ball Defense Will Remain A Liability in North Carolina's Defensive Scheme

Specifically the near future. Against Wisconsin on Tuesday, North Carolina will be dealing with one of the nation’s stingiest interior defenses, coupled with elite three-point shooting, and a punishingly controlled tempo. Kentucky’s surplus of talent becomes more apparent each and every game and the Wildcats ability to play tough, muscular defense as well as athletic guard play seems designed to give the Tar Heels fits. North Carolina was going to go into both of these games regardless as the underdog, regardless of who won in Vegas or what the polls said. Both of these match-ups are tough, and weirdly, by losing on Saturday, North Carolina should be able to go into these two games with appropriately readjusted expectations.

This can be a very good thing. The 2005 team’s season-opening loss to Santa Clara had the eventual national champions on the defensive, playing catch-up all year against an Illinois team that nearly went undefeated in the regular season. The 2007 Elite Eight team lost to Gonzaga in November. Last year’s squad lost to Minnesota, Vanderbilt, Illinois, and Texas in a span of a month yet finished the season playing in the Elite Eight while all of these other teams were sitting at home. Roy Williams-coached squads, for a variety of reasons, often lose in the fall. Last night’s loss, or even a series of three straight losses by this time  last week might feel terrible for North Carolina, but it won’t be as meaningful as pundits might say (excepting a series of blowouts). Teams grow and change between November and March, and a loss or three won’t cripple the psyche of this young team. Losses don’t hurt forever especially in November games.

ACC Game On will periodically review recent games involving ACC teams and take a look forward to key upcoming matchups.

Identities are finally coming into focus. Duke and North Carolina each had breakthrough epiphany moments, while Clemson was upset for the second time in a row. Miami also managed to win against Florida Gulf Coast in a performance that I would classify as “okay,” though that’s about all I can say about a game where the ten-point winner shot 32.1% from the field. Back to more intriguing topics.

Duke looked really good against a Michigan team that had just pounded a talented Memphis team the day before. A clever defensive plan (basically smaller guys aggressively fronting) kept Tim Hardaway, Jr., from impacting the game until near the end of the second half. Meanwhile, Austin Rivers, despite putting up impressive scoring numbers in past contests, finally put on a thorough demonstration of the skill he brings to the table, scoring aggressively, efficiently, and with more than a little panache. This performance augurs well for Duke’s future, especially considering how well the team was playing before Rivers’ breakout. For efficiency fans, I’d like to direct you to Ryan Kelly, who scored 17 points on six shots, and Seth Curry who scored 17 points on seven shots. That’s some ridiculously efficient scoring.

Rivers Quieted Some of His Detractors Yesterday

Five time zones away, North Carolina, took a step toward becoming the juggernaut that people whispered about in the offseason. Reggie Bullock led all scorers with 23 points in a performance where he made six out of seven three-pointers and contributed four rebounds, two assists, and a steal in a measly eighteen minutes of play.  He didn’t foul or turn the ball over. It was a sterling performance off the bench and one that promises good things for a Tar Heel team that had struggled to reliably hit three-pointers. Of course, Bullock took a back seat to the other command performance of the game: Kendall Marshall‘s 15-assist night. In the first four games of this season, Marshall has had more 15-assist games than any other Tar Heel in history. On nights like these, when Marshall is in passing-Nirvana, the Carolina offense seems fluid and unstoppable: everyone is open. UNC played so well, that John Henson‘s double-double with six assists and four blocks is the third story of this game.

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