ACC Morning Five: 12.27.11 Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on December 27th, 2011

  1. Washington Post: The big news this weekend comes from Virginia as K.T. Harrell and James Johnson have both decided to transfer.  Johnson was a redshirt freshman who saw very little playing time, but Harrell was a key rotation player who waged a fairly successful freshman campaign, routinely knocking down big shots from beyond the arc and starting 15 games. Harrell, however, has struggled on offense this season and has seen his minutes drop. Both players cited a lack of playing time as the reason for transferring. Coach Tony Bennett doesn’t seem very concerned with these decisions, noting that transfers are becoming more common and that he’s had at least one player leave his program every year that he’s been a head coach. While Bennett might be unworried, at least one player transferring every year probably seems too high for Virginia’s fans.
  2. Fayetteville Observer: Bret Strelow has some interesting speculation about the rapid fire re-commitment and then de-commitment of Torian Graham. Apparently, while Graham definitely wants to play for North Carolina State, someone else is preventing him from doing so. He brings up the oft-discussed possibility that the Wolfpack is waiting to make sure that Graham meets the necessary academic qualifications to play college basketball, but he also brings up a more insidious theory where a relative, hanger-on, or handler is pushing Graham to sign with a more high-profile program. While this theory doesn’t yet have any hard confirmation, it’s an intriguing story. Hopefully, it’s not true.
  3. Washington Times: On Friday, Pe’Shon Howard made his season debut for Maryland. Howard has been out with a broken foot,  but played 30 minutes against Radford. The return of the talented guard is a huge boost for the Terrapins who haven’t yet seen the kind of stellar play they had been expecting of freshman guard Nick Faust. The Saturday reinstatement of freshman big man Alex Len is expected to be another significant gain for Maryland. Len has been serving an NCAA suspension related to his time playing with a professional club in the Ukraine.
  4. Soaring to Glory: It’s been a rough year for Boston College fans, and it doesn’t look like things are going to get any easier. Soaring to Glory breaks down the remaining Eagles schedule and tries to predict how may games this team can actually win. Spoiler Alert: Not many.
  5. Tobacco Road Blues: Chanukkah is nearly over, but it’s not too late to acknowledge the proud tradition of Jewish basketball at Duke and North Carolina. While Jon Scheyer gets the first spot on this list, the great Lennie Rosenbluth is probably the greatest son of David to play in the rivalry: In case you’re unfamiliar with the name, Rosenbluth averaged 28 PPG during the Tar Heels’ undefeated 1957 season, capped off by a triple-overtime victory over Wilt Chamberlain’s Kansas team.
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ACC Game On: 12.21.11

Posted by KCarpenter on December 21st, 2011

There was only a single ACC game last night, but it was a doozy. After a last-second C.J. Leslie shot, the Wolfpack narrowly escaped with a win against St. Bonaventure on the road. Of course, North Carolina State shouldn’t have needed the last minute heroics, but a win is a win in Rochester or Raleigh. Tonight, there is a nice slate of games, including the latest installment in a fun inter-conference series.

The Marquee Match-Up

  • Texas at North Carolina at 7:00 PM on ESPN2

The Longhorns and the Tar Heels have played a December game for the past few years, and despite Texas’s recent winning streak, the games are usually fairly close. With a highly-touted North Carolina team playing in Chapel Hill, Roy Williams‘ squad comes to this game as the clear favorite. Texas is young and small, but the ability to field a lighting-quick line-up that features J’Covan Brown and freshman sensation Myck Kabongo could challenge North Carolina. Kendall Marshall is the straw that stirs the powder-blue drink and unfortunately, he lacks the lateral quickness to defend fast guards. Since both players demand coverage, this isn’t an issue that can be solved by merely throwing Dexter Strickland at the problem. Still, if the Tar Heels stand poised to struggle defensively against the speed of Texas, the Longhorns will have their own defensive problems with a long and tall North Carolina team.

A History Lesson

  • Virginia at Seattle at 10:10 PM

Seattle used to be a basketball powerhouse. Elgin Baylor led the Redhawks to an NCAA championship game in 1958, where the team lost to Kentucky. Since then, Seattle vanished off the college basketball map, playing in the NAIA for over twenty years before rejoining the NCAA in 2001. This year is only the third season that Seattle has played in Division I since the seventies. I bring this up as a way of explaining that Seattle University is still in the process of rebuilding its program since what were effectively fallow years. Playing in historic KeyArena, the newly nationally-ranked Cavaliers have a very good chance at extending their win streak against the over-matched Redhawks.

A Rare Sight

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ACC Game On: 12.19.11 Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on December 19th, 2011

After a week that featured only a single game, this weekend worked out pretty well for the ACC. Of the nine games played over the course of the weekend, all but one of them was a victory. The exception? North Carolina State‘s loss against top-ranked Syracuse. While Syracuse pulled away at the end of the game, the Wolfpack still managed to hang for most of the game, showing some real moxie in their biggest game to date.  Now, however, most teams enter into one of the odder stages of the college basketball schedule: the soft end of the non-conference schedule. While some teams still have a few tough tune-ups leading up to conference play, this stretch of games features some of the most lopsided games these teams will see all season. Still, there’s something to be said for blowouts: most folks who make predictive basketball models find big wins against inferior opponents to be more informative in terms of a team’s future performance than a close win against a roughly equal foe. Seeing who takes care of business and who stumbles could provide some critical insight into the  future fortunes of these teams.

Gottfried's Team Played #1 Syracuse Tough, But Couldn't Hang for 40 Minutes

If I Had To Pick One

  • North Florida at Virginia Tech at 7:00 PM on ESPN3.com

Let me be frank, none of these matchups tonight should be very competitive, but if I had to pick one of these games to watch for an upset, it would be this one. North Florida is one of the most battle-tested teams in the country, having already played Alabama, Florida, Miami, Ohio State, and Kansas State. All of these games were losses, but North Florida managed to take Kansas State to overtime, and they are not going to be fazed or starstruck playing the Hokies. They will come in prepared and ready to challenge. Virginia Tech is dominant in every possible comparison or matchup between the two teams, but UNF’s ability to play capable defense and their experience against big-time competition gives them an outside shot at upsetting the potentially rusty Hokies, who haven’t played against a tough opponent since December 4.

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ACC Game On: 12.14.11 Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on December 14th, 2011

It’s a slow basketball week in the Atlantic Coast Conference as students presumably take exams and wrap up their semester by focusing on their academics. Or play a lot of video games. Something like that. In any case, there is only one interesting matchup the entire week and thank your lucky stars — it’s going down tonight.

The Only ACC Game Between Sunday and Saturday

  • Florida International at Maryland at 7:30 PM on ESPN

Okay, so maybe this isn’t exactly a great game, but it’s all we have until Saturday so let’s try to look at the interesting parts about it. Isiah Thomas‘s team is not a good one. Despite a season-opening overtime win over George Mason, the team has only managed to win two more times. Two-point wins against the likes of Coastal Carolina and Stephen F. Austin aren’t impressive, but at least they are wins. FIU also has more than a couple of bad losses on the books including losses to Alabama State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and NAIA school Texas Wesleyan, a school best known in athletics for it’s dominance/scholarships in table tennis. Maryland should win this game to get its third win in a row. The reasons why the Terrapins don’t take this in a walk? The few strengths of the Panthers align well with Maryland’s weaknesses. The Panthers are a good offensive rebounding team while Maryland struggles on the defensive glass. Likewise, outside of the remarkable Terrell Stoglin, the Terrapins guards have had trouble maintaining control of the ball while the Panthers have been fairly effective at forcing turnovers. It’s a long shot, but if FIU gets easy buckets off turnovers, a good number of second chance shots, and gets hot against Maryland’s indifferent defense, they have a reasonable shot at the win. Otherwise, the Terrapins should dominate every other facet of the game, and, provided they take the game seriously, should win easily.

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The ACC’s Unlikely Dynamic Duo: Wake Forest’s Travis McKie and CJ Harris

Posted by KCarpenter on December 12th, 2011

Currently, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are sitting on a 6-4 record. It’s not a great 6-4, but it’s not terrible either. Wins against Nebraska and Loyola (Maryland) are nice, and losses against Arizona State and Richmond aren’t impressive, but they aren’t damning. By December 15 of last year, Wake Forest had a 6-4 record, albeit with some ugly losses to the likes of Stetson and Winthrop. After that date, the squad managed only two more wins. Considering the ugliness of last season, it’s understandable if fans feel a bit queasy about the sense of déjà vu. Still, despite the similarity of record and the familiar names on the roster, the Demon Deacons are progressing by leaps and bounds.

Travis McKie And C.J. Harris Are Handling The Offensive Load For Wake

Sophomore Travis McKie’s performance was the highlight of last year’s bleak campaign and the good news is that he has picked up right where he left off. Despite handling a heavier portion of the offensive load, McKie has been able to maintain production at a very high level. I should clairfy what I mean when I say that McKie is handling “a heavier portion of the offensive load.”  No one in the ACC is on the floor as much as this guy. McKie leads the conference by averaging 35 minutes per game. He is on the floor 86.9% of the time. The guy is an iron man, and yet he manages to produce. McKie is second in the league with 18.6 PPG, only beaten by the insane production of Maryland’s Terrell Stoglin, who is averaging 22.5 PPG. McKie is doing it fairly efficiently too with a 59.9 true shooting percentage. Aside from Stoglin and Mike Scott, the sophomore is perhaps the best primary offensive option in the league.

Still, McKie’s role as a first-rate scoring option isn’t what makes Wake Forest so deadly. That distinction belongs to C. J. Harris, a player who has really blossomed this year. Last year, according to Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, Harris posted a 93.6 offensive efficiency rating while taking 15.6% of the team’s shots. This year? Harris has an offensive efficiency rating of 117.7 while taking 25.1% of his teams shots. That’s an insane improvement. So now, not only does Wake Forest have the conference’s second-leading scorer, but it also has the conference’s third leading scorer (17.9 PPG). It might have sounded crazy this time last year, or even two months ago, but Wake Forest easily has the most productive scoring tandem in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

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ACC Morning Five: 12.09.11 Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on December 9th, 2011

  1. CBS Sports: Virginia Tech‘s Blacksburg campus was under lock down yesterday after a gunman killed two people before taking his own life. It’s been five years since the horrific shooting that shook the campus as well as the nation. If any small solace can be taken from the tragedy, it’s that Virginia Tech was uniquely well-prepared for dealing with this kind of emergency and the lock down and subsequent search for the shooter went about as well as could be expected. This is obviously a story bigger than basketball, but Seth Greenberg, aside from being stuck in his office for most of the day, seemed calm and unworried during the lockdown once he made sure his daughter, a student and cheerleader at Virginia Tech, was also safe.
  2. Sports Illustrated: Luke Winn is at it again with his power rankings. For those interested in North Carolina, Winn breaks down the results of Tyler Zeller‘s second half possessions against Kentucky, as well as Anthony Davis’ second half possessions against North Carolina. The frustrating thing for Carolina fans will be the confirmation that yes, Zeller gets the ball in great position, but he often squanders it.  For Duke’s power ranking commentary, Winn shares an interesting Mike Krzyzewski anecdote from the Sportsman of the Year profile and somehow ties it to Austin Rivers.
  3. Testudo Times: Pe’Shon Howard‘s recovery is going much quicker than most expected. The school posted a photo of Howard with his cast off and reports have him practicing with the rest of Maryland‘s team. The folks at Testudo Times are, in fact, incredibly optimistic about the recovery of Howard, speculating that he might play as soon as December 23. Howard, a sophomore point guard, could provide a great lift for this team. In his freshman campaign, the guard showed a real talent for distributing the basketball as well as hitting three-pointers. Last year, Howard famously hit a buzzer-beater to lead the Terrapins to victory against the College of Charleston.
  4. Soaring to Glory: Boston College was the only ACC team to play last night and though they walked away with a loss against Providence, there is reason for hope. The Eagles finally started to look like a team playing with a consistency and chemistry that hadn’t been evident in past games for more than few minutes. Despite the loss and the ugly-looking statistics, I find myself agreeing with the author that this was perhaps their strongest team performance to date.
  5. Sun Sentinel: Kenny Kadji has been effective coming off the bench for the Hurricanes. The Florida transfer isn’t starting, but he is averaging plenty of minutes at center, where Miami has been missing the excellent Reggie Johnson as he recovers from an injury. The 6’11” sophomore’s strong play has been an early highlight for a team that too often relies very heavily on guards Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant to carry the load. Kadji is one of three transfers who join Miami this season.
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ACC Game On: 12.08.11 Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on December 8th, 2011

Georgia Tech had the best night out of all the ACC teams, beating a pretty good Georgia team in Athens. The Yellow Jackets, in addition to putting together their usual solid defensive effort, displayed a versatile and balanced offense that saw five different players score in double figures while the team shot 52.1% from the field. If Georgia Tech can put together some more nights like this one, they will easily exceed expectations.

Georgia Tech Won in Athens For the First Time in a Long Time (AP/C. Compton)

Wake Forest and Maryland both nearly took losses but managed to get the win in games that should not have been that close. The Demon Deacons faced the white-hot fury of High Point‘s Nick Barbour who went nova and scored 35 points and hit 7 threes from beyond the arc.  Wake Forest also struggled on the boards, allowing High Point to grab twelve offensive rebounds while only securing two of their own. The net result of this rebounding difference helped to create a significant shot disparity where Wake Forest shot the ball only 48 times compared to the High Point’s 63 attempts. That Wake Forest won this game despite these factors is almost impressive. The Demon Deacons were hyper-efficient on offense, shooting 58.3% from the field and making 18 free throws. That this team could turn in such an impressive offensive performance and still come within four points of losing to High Point isn’t a great sign for the future, though. Maryland’s close win had a similar flavor as bad defense nearly undermined a clicking offense. The Terrapins put together a nice evening on offense, including a truly solid game from Nick Faust that included 13 points on five field goals while leading the team with six rebounds, five assists and two blocks. The narrow three-point margin of victory, however, is far from comforting to Terrapin fans.

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ACC Game On: 12.07.11 Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on December 7th, 2011

Virginia soundly beat George Mason in a game where rebounding machine Mike Scott only managed two boards. Was Scott having an off night? Hardly. There just weren’t a lot of misses in the game with Virginia shooting a ridiculous 60.5% and the Patriots managing to make 47.5% in a relatively slow game. Sammy Zeglinski shined as a starter with 18 points on 11 shots and four steals. Meanwhile, North Carolina unceremoniously stomped Evansville, holding the Aces to 25.8% shooting as no starter played more than 25 minutes. In what I thought would be the game of the night, Memphis’s Will Barton put on a show as the Tigers torched an undersized Miami team. Barton scored a ridiculous 27 points, grabbed 14 rebounds and managed four steals. Miami continues to look out of sorts on offense, which is bad news for a team that has really struggled to defend.

Tonight we have a full slate of games, though it’s unclear if the majority of them will be even close to competitive. Still, there are lots of options and a few choice offerings.

An In-State Rivalry!

It's a Peach State Battle in Athens Tonight

  • Georgia Tech at Georgia at 7:00 PM on ESPN3.com

Despite Georgia’s current three game slide, the Bulldogs have shown flashes of real talent in the early going with a notable win over Notre Dame. Georgia Tech has lost to Saint Joseph’s, Northwestern, and Tulane. Neither of these teams are great, but each has shown great aptitude on the defensive end. While the Yellow Jackets will probably have a tough time handling Georgia at home, this Georgia Tech team is, if nothing else, an outstanding rebounding team and that will keep them in the game as long as the Yellow Jacket scorers aren’t totally shut down.

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ACC Game On: 12.06.11 Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on December 6th, 2011

Well, as expected Charleston Southern seized on its one advantage and managed to force Florida State into 21 turnovers. Of course, it didn’t matter: The Seminoles locked down and held its Monday night opponent to 29.9% from the field while shooting 48.4% on its end. It was a 15-point victory, but it felt like the margin was bigger considering how quickly Florida State jumped to a big lead.

The Seminoles Had Little Problem Blasting Charleston Southern Last Night

Tonight, we have a couple of nice gut-check games and then the equivalent of an angry child getting their aggression out by punching a pillow a bunch of times.

The Main Event

  • Memphis at Miami at 9:00 PM on ESPN2

Even without Reggie Johnson, Miami has been pretty good this year. A loss to Purdue and an overtime road loss to Mississippi are understandable, but they are also blown chances at really putting the Hurricanes on the national map. With a faltering Memphis team coming to Coral Gables, the team has a good chance at a nice signature win. Without a strong front court presence, Miami has struggled to rebound effectively, but Memphis has been fairly terrible at rebounding so far this season too,  giving the Hurricanes an opening. In terms of weaknesses, Miami’s mediocre perimeter defense will have to hold strong against a Tigers team that has shot 44.2% from beyond the arc. The game may come down to pace as Miami tries to slow it down against Josh Pastner’s run-happy team. In any case, this should be a pretty entertaining game this evening.

The Undercard

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ACC Game On: 12.05.11 Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on December 5th, 2011

Yesterday was a lousy day for the conference. Aside from a breakout performance by Terrell Stoglin to lead a struggling Maryland team over Notre Dame, it was losses all round for the other three conference teams in action.  Turnovers did in North Carolina State who otherwise played a very strong game on the road at Stanford. Andre Young went cold and Clemson has now dropped three home games against in-state rivals after hosting South Carolina. Kansas State locked down Virginia Tech’s scorers in the second half and stole one on the road. While none of these losses is particularly “bad,” aside from Clemson’s loss to South Carolina, Virginia Tech needs to find some quality wins this non-conference season if it wants to make the tournament. The Wolfpack’s loss to Stanford is a “quality loss,” considering how close NC State came to getting a high-caliber road win against a Stanford team that has looked very good in the early going. Still, the win would have been that much more impressive.

As rough as yesterday was for conference teams, tonight promises to be a little bit better. The ACC has a very good chance to go undefeated this evening. Of course, there is only one game tonight, so maybe that’s not so impressive. Still, it’s all the Atlantic Coast Conference has going down tonight, so let’s talk about it.

The Only Game

  • Charleston Southern at Florida State at 7:00 PM on ESPNU

So this has the making of a rout on paper. Those aren’t all that thrilling generally, but if you can get in the right mindset, this one has the potential to be a defensive masterpiece.  Florida State can play lock down defense on the perimeter and in the paint. They force turnovers and the whole team is pretty tall. Charleston Southern’s average shooting, not particularly good rebounding, and mediocre ball handling points to a low scoring game for the Buccaneers. As mediocre as the team is offensively, they are even worse defensively.

Let’s go back to the height thing for a second. The two tallest starters for Charleston Southern are 6’5″. The two shortest starters for Florida State are 6’5″. It’s a rough match-up.

Leonard Hamilton's Seminoles Should Win Easily Tonight

The one favorable match-up for Charleston Southern comes on the defensive end. Charleston Southern has actually been nearly as good as Florida State in terms of forcing turnovers while the Seminoles have displayed a shocking indifference to taking care of the ball. If the Buccaneers can force turnover and then get made baskets before the defense is set, they have a chance to get some points on the board and get an edge in terms of extra possessions. It’s a slim advantage, but it might be their best chance.

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