ACC M5: 01.22.16 Edition

Posted by Matt Patton on January 22nd, 2016

morning5_ACC

  1. Pittsburgh Post Gazette: Paul Zeise’s theory about Pittsburgh‘s problems against NC State is that the Panthers struggle with size. He’s wrong that in it wasn’t a rebounding issue (the Panthers had a bad rebounding night against NC State, but were fine against Purdue and Louisville), and NC State’s shot blocker also weren’t a huge factor. The common thread in the losses is unsurprisingly poor shooting. Pittsburgh isn’t a good enough defensive team to win when it shoots poorly. Either way, this trend is worth looking out for when the Panthers play other tall opponents (ahem, Florida State).
  2. Raleigh News & Observer: North Carolina is shooting more than four percent better on free throws this season than last year (74.4 vs. 70.2, respectively). When questioned about the dramatic improvement, Roy Williams was on point: “Everybody thinks that your bad free-throw shooters would get into a room and get some candles out and do a seance and everything.” Just how good are the Tar Heels from the charity stripe this season? Marcus Paige is the the third-best free throw shooter on the team, with Isaiah Hicks hot on his tail. So far North Carolina is 0-2 in games decided by five points or fewer, but the improved free throw shooting will continue to paid dividends in stretching leads.
  3. Syracuse Post Standard: This is a good look at Michael Gbinije and his evolution – one somewhat forced upon him – into a point guard. Interestingly, Duke (where Gbinije transferred from) would love to have Matt Jones complete a similar transformation, but Jones still looks a little lost running the offense. Syracuse’s road to the NCAA Tournament is challenging but achievable. It becomes near impossible if Gbinije can’t play consistently like he did against Duke.
  4. Richmond Times Dispatch: This is the first story of the year on an ACC team holding a players-only meeting. That team was Virginia, slotted by many as the best team in the league before messing around and losing three of their first five ACC games. Clemson coming to Charlottesville didn’t look like a test before the season, but with the teams trending in opposite directions, the seniors chose to take matters into their own hands.
  5. CBS Sports: Not going to lie, this is being posted mainly because of the vine of Donovan Mitchell‘s dunk. But it’s worth mentioning that the one team that might be better than North Carolina in the ACC is Louisville. Their strength of schedule was so bad in non-conference that it’s still tough to get a good read on the Cardinals, but they’re terrific defensively and are undefeated at home this season.
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St. Mary’s: The Best Team No One Knows About

Posted by William Ezekowitz on January 21st, 2016

The Saint Mary’s Gaels have risen from seemingly nowhere to become one of the best teams in the country. Quite likely, they are the best team that you know nothing about. But you may be forgiven for your ignorance, because the revolution has rarely been televised. In the seventeen games the Gaels have played, they have appeared on national television (if you call ESPNU national television) just twice: once in November when they beat Stanford by 17, and then again on New Year’s Eve, when they beat BYU by 11. Now, here they are, poised to soundly defeat Gonzaga (that’s right, soundly) at home tonight—again on ESPNU—and yet no one knows about a thing about the Gaels. Let’s fix that.

The 2014-15 iteration of St. Mary’s was a perfectly good team. Led by All-Conference big man Brad Waldow, the Gaels narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament and instead settled for the NIT; it wasn’t the best season Randy Bennett has ever had at St. Mary’s, but it was perfectly respectable. The Gaels were graduating five of their top six players, though, and replacing them with the following cast: rising sophomore point guard Emmett Naar, who had looked good his freshman year but was never expected to carry the load; Boston College transfer Joe Rahon, who had a solid but unspectacular two years with the Eagles; four underclassmen reserves who had been asked to do very little last year; and a freshman class led by three star center Evan Fitzner and four guys no recruiting service had bothered to rank. A down year seemed imminent.

Saint Mary's Sophomore Emmett Naar Leads The Nation In Three-Point Percentage (Photo: SMCGaels.com)

Saint Mary’s Sophomore Emmett Naar Leads The Nation In Three-Point Percentage (Photo: SMCGaels.com)

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Saiz Injury May Mean No Moody or Ole Miss in March

Posted by Greg Mitchell (@gregpmitchell) on January 21st, 2016

If Ole Miss‘ current three-game losing streak didn’t put the fire out on the Rebels’ already-slim NCAA tournament chances, then Sebastian Saiz‘ torn retina might do the trick. Andy Kennedy will be without his best big man for at least two weeks as Saiz recovers from surgery for an injury he suffered back in December against Memphis. The eye issue didn’t affect the junior’s play as he stayed in line with what has been a breakout year. Saiz is nearly averaging a double-double (12.8 PPG, 9.8 RPG) and hasn’t wilted in SEC play, scoring in double figures and grabbing at least six rebounds in every game.

Sebastian Saiz' absence could be devastating for Ole Miss (bleacherreport.com).

Sebastian Saiz’ absence could be devastating for Ole Miss (bleacherreport.com).

A player like Saiz is a big loss no matter the circumstance, but is especially painful for Ole Miss for a number of reasons. First, Saiz is the Rebels only consistent offensive threat in the post and is by far Kennedy’s best rebounder. Second, the Rebels are about as thin a power conference team as you will find. Kennedy’s rotation generally has maxed out at eight players and only six players average more than 20 minutes per game. Also thin? The Rebels’ shot at making a second consecutive appearance in the NCAA tournament. The picture looked fairly rosy a week and a half ago when Ole Miss ran out to a 2-1 SEC start and stood at 12-3 overall. The aesthetics of the overall record covered for the fact that the Rebels’ best win was an away game at Memphis and that they were carrying a disappointing loss to George Mason (KenPom #196).

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Big Ten Player of the Year Ladder: Volume Two Part Two

Posted by Brendan Brody on January 21st, 2016

After finishing roughly two months of the college basketball season, it’s time to revisit the leaderboard for the Big Ten Player of the Year race. Injuries have played a role in shaking things up a bit since the last listing, but eight of the ten listed last time are still in the top ten. Isaac Haas has seen his productivity and minutes go down since conference play started and Robert Carter Jr also is off the list for now. Players 6-10 can be seen here, so now here’s the top five.
  • 5. AJ Hammons, Purdue: (13.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.5 BPG, 60.8% FG)- In the beginning of the season, Hammons took a back seat to Haas as the sophomore was playing really well. The burly seven-footer has know since reclaimed his starting spot, averaging 14.3 PPG and 2.9 BPG in his last eight games. The blocks only tell half the story, as he alters many more as a presence in the lane. Purdue still has a top ten defense nationally, and Hammons remains one of main reasons why.
  • 4. Yogi Ferrell, Indiana: (17.1 PPG, 6.1 APG, 1.3 SPG, 44.3% 3’s, 126.1 Offensive Rating)- The Hoosiers were supposed to take a dip once James Blackmon Jr was lost for the season. Instead, they’ve started off league play 6-0 and Ferrell has been the main reason why. He’s averaging 19.2 PPG and 6.3 APG since his backcourt mate went down, and he has now had six games where he has made more than four three-pointers. In a league filled with quality point guards, Ferrell is one of the best.
Yogi Ferrell has Indiana off to an undefeated start in conference play. (Getty).

Yogi Ferrell has Indiana off to an undefeated start in conference play. (Getty).

  • 3. Melo Trimble, Maryland: (13.9 PPG, 5.7 APG, 1.3 SPG, 87.8% FT)- Trimble has continued to be at his best in big moments, as his game-winner against Wisconsin displayed. He is the best ball-handler in the conference, and he has continued to improve as a passer. Maryland has to be considered one of a handful of favorites to win the National Championship, and this is partially because they have so many weapons capable of beating people. Trimble has been a master at deferring to his gifted teammates, and he deserves a lot of the credit for the uptick in production from Diamond Stone of late.

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Iowa’s Red Hot Campaign: Jarrod Uthoff Spurs Hawkeyes

Posted by Shane McNichol on January 21st, 2016

The state of Iowa is buzzing right now. Somehow, the Hawkeye State has evolved into not only a key battleground in the US Presidential race, but also in college basketball’s push towards March. The state has become a legitimate graveyard for top-ranked teams, as Northern Iowa knocked off then #1 North Carolina early in the season, Iowa toppled #1 Michigan State, and Iowa State just nipped newly minted #1 Oklahoma on Monday night.

But there is one team in the state that is clearly being talked about more than the others right now. Iowa‘s Dec. 29 victory over Michigan State was nice, but that is only a piece of the red-hot run they are on. In its last five games, Iowa has beaten teams with an average KenPom ranking of 30.1 (which includes #89 Nebraska). The Hawkeyes not only beat Tom Izzo’s team in Iowa City, they went up to East Lansing and knocked off the Spartans there, again by double digits. Iowa also trailed KenPom darling Purdue by 19 just before halftime on the road, only to outscore the Boilermakers 50-26 in the second half.

Could Jarrod Uthoff Be The Best Player In College Basketball? (Photo: Quad-City Times)

Could Jarrod Uthoff Be The Best Player In College Basketball? (Photo: Quad-City Times)

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Morning Five: 01.21.16 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on January 21st, 2016

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  1. California senior point guard Tyrone Wallace is expected to be out for 4-6 weeks after breaking a bone in his right hand. Wallace, who leads the team in scoring (15.4) and assists (4.6) while averaging 5.1 rebounds per game. will be replaced in the starting lineup by Sam Singer. Wallace’s absence could be a crushing blow to any postseason aspirations that the team had coming into the season with a solid returning core and two top-10 recruits as the Bears are now 12-6 overall and 2-3 in the Pac-12. Wallace is expected to be back in time for the Pac-12 Conference Tournament, but by then the Bears may need to get an automatic bid to make it to the NCAA Tournament.
  2. We cannot imagine what Colorado State forward Emmanuel Omogbo is going through right now after four members of his family died in a house fire on Tuesday. According to reports, both of Omogbo’s parents died in the fire as well his sister’s two-year-old twins. Omogbo’s sister survived after jumping out a second story window. Omogbo, who transferred to Colorado State from South Plains College in Texas, played last night in the team’s win at Air Force (1 points and 2 rebounds). If you would like to contribute to Omogbo and his family as they attempt to recover from this tragedy, you can donate through a GoFundMe page that the school set up for him.
  3. We could have a repeat of the Skal Labissiere situation in the class of 2018 as Marvin Bagley III, the top-ranked recruit in the class, has been ruled ineligible to play high school basketball this season. The governing body in California ruled Bagley ineligible following his transfer from a school in Arizona to one in California on November 12 because it was felt that it was an “athletically motivated transfer”. Bagley will not be able to play high school basketball in California until January 4, 2017 (one year after he enrolled at a school in the state). With this being Bagley’s third high school in a little over a year and a half of high school we are reminded of Luke Winn’s analysis on transfer rates of top recruits.
  4. It didn’t take long for Keith Frazier to find a new home as the former Southern Methodist guard will be transferring to North Texas. Frazier, who was a 2013 McDonald’s All-American and averaged 11.9 points per game, is best known as being the central figure for the infractions that led to SMU’s postseason ban. As we mentioned earlier in the week, Frazier’s ongoing guilt has been cited as the reason for his decision to transfer. We will be interested to see how he does at North Texas given his already solid numbers at SMU especially without having the burden of being the reason his undefeated team is not going to play in the NCAA Tournament.
  5. Sometimes Ken Pomeroy’s stuff can be almost too complex for the average college basketball fan, but his post on the variation in expected pace of play should make sense to most fans. One of the more confusing aspects of Pomeroy’s ratings are his preseason and early season ratings, which are based on projections that he attempts to formalize into a numeric rating. As Pomeroy notes he uses several factors to predict a team’s style and performance including a coach’s historical pattern. While the individual team/coach variation is interesting we would be more interested to see how this plays out within conferences to see if officiating/style of play may also be a contributing factor.
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Big Ten Player of the Year Ladder: Volume Two, Part I

Posted by Brendan Brody on January 20th, 2016

After finishing roughly two months of the college basketball season, it’s time to revisit the leaderboard for the Big Ten Player of the Year race. Injuries have played a role in shaking things up a bit since the last listing, but eight of the ten listed last time are still in the top ten. Isaac Haas has seen his productivity and minutes go down since conference play started and Robert Carter Jr also is off the list for now. Here’s a quick look at players 10-6, with players 5-1 to come shortly:

  • 10. Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin: (16.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.6 APG, 59.5 Free Throw Rate)- Hayes has struggled at times much like his team has. The easy looks that he was able to capitalize on with Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker on the roster last season have gone away, but Hayes has still managed to score more than 20 points five times. He also has increased his assist rate from 11.9 to 21.9 percent as he has done a nice job facilitating for the Badgers.
  • 9. Caris LeVert, Michigan: (17.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 5.2 APG, 129.9 O-Rating)- Through no fault of his own, LeVert took a decent sized drop here because he has missed the last five games for Michigan due to a lower leg injury. The numbers he has put up to date still hold up however, as he leads the Wolverines in points, rebounds, assists, and steals.
Caris LeVert is still one of the top ten players in the B1G despite missing his teams' last five games. (Getty)

Caris LeVert is still one of the top ten players in the B1G despite missing his teams’ last five games. (Getty)

  • 8. Malcolm Hill, Illinois: (18.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.6 APG, 80.0% FT)- Even though Illinois is off to a 1-4 start in conference play, Hill has still been one of the most consistent and versatile performers in all the league. The junior has scored in double-figures in each game this season, and has also lead the Illini in rebounds five times, and lead them in assists seven times.

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Vanderbilt’s Surprising NBA Prospect

Posted by Greg Mitchell (@gregpmitchell) on January 20th, 2016

There will be no perfunctory press conference several days after Vanderbilt‘s season ends. The beat writers won’t need to trudge to campus to hear Kevin Stallings and Damian Jones announce something that was inevitable. Jones put the faux suspense to rest before the season had even started: he was turning pro after his junior year. “This is my last go-round. But all that means is that I want to give it all I’ve got. I want to push this team and get to that next step while I’m here,” he told the Tennessean in October.

Up to this point, a talented Commodores team has not taken that “next step.” They sit at 10-7 after a frustrating non-conference season that featured missed opportunities for statement wins against Kansas, Dayton, Purdue, and Baylor. On a personal level, Jones hasn’t exactly taken that next step either. He didn’t make the cut for our mid-season SEC Player of the Year watch list and his statistical output is generally the same across the board as compared with last year. He has struggled with foul trouble, particularly in conference play, and had rough outings against Baylor’s and Purdue’s talented front courts.

Luke Kornet has become a blocking machine this year (collegebasketball.nbcsports.com).

Luke Kornet has become a blocking machine this year (collegebasketball.nbcsports.com).

This isn’t to say Jones isn’t still a good NBA prospect with a long career ahead of him. The way he moves with his 7’0” foot frame and 7’2” wingspan isn’t any less appealing to NBA scouts, and he’s generally done a great job passing out of double teams this year. He’s an athletic big who could develop into a Taj Gibson-like reliable NBA forward and to his credit hasn’t tried persuade the world that he’s a three-point shooter. But when scouts come out to Vanderbilt games this year, Jones isn’t the only Commodore that they’re looking at. Junior center Luke Kornet has developed into a legitimate NBA prospect in his own right, and while he lacks lottery (or even first round) buzz at this point, he’s a highly intriguing player.

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Edmond Sumner’s Emergence As Xavier’s MVP

Posted by Justin Kundrat on January 20th, 2016

There has been no shortage of discussion around the success of Xavier so far this season. Even after a loss to Georgetown on Tuesday night, the Musketeers are a top five team with a 16-2 record and five wins over the RPI top 50. It’s put Xavier on track to potentially post the best season in program history. Xavier has earned a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament twice in its history (2003 and 2008), but has never advanced to the Final Four. Now, in building upon a dark horse Sweet Sixteen run last season, Chris Mack’s team is pounding on the ceiling. Some bracketology predictions show Mack’s team on the one seed line, and talk of legitimate Final Four potential is ramping up. A balanced offense (six players score 9 PPG or more) has combined with a stifling zone defense to pave the way to the team’s hot start. So too has the intimidating inside punch of Jalen Reynolds and James Farr, whose combined 15.6 RPG is a major reason why Xavier is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. But the true impact player for the X-men has been redshirt freshman Edmond Sumner, a wiry 6’6 point guard who drastically alters the rhythm of the game on both ends of the floor.

His assist figures may not directly reflect it, but Sumner has deftly assumed point guard duties left behind by departed senior Dee Davis, who had been a critical facilitator on last year’s team. One of the big offseason questions for Chris Mack was whether any player could fill his shoes. Sumner has done that, and more. He is averaging 5.4 assists per 40 minutes, while his scoring ability has drawn enough respect from defenders that they are forced to slide into help position and surrender an open man. His long frame and quick feet enable him to easily evade defenders in both the halfcourt and transition, frequently putting him in a position to score or make an easy pass. Here, are two perfect examples of the aforementioned optionality that Sumner provides his team.

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ACC M5: 01.20.16 Edition

Posted by mpatton on January 20th, 2016

morning5_ACC

  1. Raleigh News & Observer: Everyone put your hands together for NC State! That’s right, the Wolfpack got their first conference win at Pittsburgh. The Panthers’ league record is a little shinier than their non-conference play merited (they only beat one top-100 team according to Ken Pomeroy), but going to Pittsburgh and coming out with a win says a lot about Mark Gottfried‘s team. At least for tonight NC State was a good shooting team, led by Cat Barber‘s 31 points on 18 shots (he went 14-14 from the charity stripe). But even more promising was holding a good offensive team at bay on the road.
  2. Hampton Roads Daily Press: Buzz Williams knows that his team’s record is likely a mirage. But he knows that it’s progress that the Hokies find themselves in situations where games can go their way. And he talks about exploiting small things–out of bounds plays and drawing fouls–to make his team more competitive. Both also are of utmost importance in close games when each possession matters a little more.
  3. USA Today: This is a good story from Nicole Auerbach on Malik Beasley (and Dwayne Bacon, but he’s really just mentioned as Beasley’s friend and the other freshman star). Beasley’s parents are both actors, but his father also played basketball at a high level. The preparation he put in over the summer getting to know Leonard Hamilton’s system and his future teammates while taking summer courses is a little like learning lines.
  4. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Georgia Tech is a better team than a lot of people know. While the team’s conference record looks like Wake Forest and Boston College, the Yellow Jackets are much more efficient (62 according to Ken Pomeroy; 59 according to Jeff Sagarin). That should pay dividends at some point, though it may be too late to save Brian Gregory’s job. Gregory will have plenty of time to plan for this Saturday when Louisville comes to town, and that’s the kind of win that could start turning heads.
  5. Syracuse Post Standard: So Mike Krzyzewski wasn’t happy about the no-call on a rebound at the end of Duke‘s third straight loss (though possibly it was karmic justice for another controversial no-call). But the real reason to bring up this article is to touch on Coach K snubbing a few Syracuse players in the handshake line. Handshake lines are stupid, but this controversy may be even stupider (or Boeheim could be sticking up for a friend).
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