Top 25 Snapshot: 01.09.12
Posted by zhayes9 on January 9th, 2012Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.
If there’s one thing I’m reminded of every January, it’s that winning on the road in conference play is incredibly difficult.
Ask Missouri, who came into their road game at Kansas State riding an undefeated record and lost by 16. Or consult Connecticut, who had a nightmarish week in New Jersey, succumbing to both Seton Hall and Rutgers. Florida would have a clue, as they were manhandled by rebuilding Tennessee. The same applies to Duke and Georgetown, two more top ten teams that lost on the road during this past week.
Needless to say, the rankings will experience a dramatic shakeup every Monday during a season where our perceptions are constantly in flux. After watching countless hours of hoops over the last two months, here’s how I see the top of the pack:
Fab Melo's rapid improvement has been a big reason for Syracuse's ascent
1. Syracuse (17-0, 4-0): There’s no debate over the best team in the Big East. With Syracuse’s first road game against a ranked team not coming until February 13, it’s looking more and more like a race for the league’s silver medal. The five players that Jim Boeheim shuffles off his bench – notably superb sixth man Dion Waiters, who could be their most talented player — could challenge for an NCAA Tournament bid by themselves. Their patented 2-3 zone is nearly impenetrable and Syracuse is second in block percentage and first in steal percentage, generating countless transition opportunities where they excel in the open court. No team has more depth or is currently playing at a higher level.
2. Kentucky (15-1, 1-0): The Wildcats are not only sensational at this stage in the season, but with three freshmen and two sophomores among their top six players, they have the most room to grow of any team from now until March. This might be John Calipari’s best defensive team, buoyed by the shot-blocking artistry of center Anthony Davis, the primary reason why Kentucky ranks first in the nation in opponents two-point percentage (37%). The keys for the Wildcats over the next two months will be snapping preseason All-American Terrence Jones out of his perplexing funk and minimizing freshman point guard Marquis Teague’s turnover woes. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who plays with an unquenchable energy and can guard four positions, has been the best overall freshman in the country on both ends of the floor.
3. North Carolina (14-2, 1-0): Roy Williams’ team has an inside track at a number one seed due to a watered-down ACC aside from Duke. The common perception of the Tar Heels is one of a potent offensive arsenal and a soft defense, but Carolina ranks 12th in defensive efficiency and puts the opposing team on the free throw line less than any other team in the country. Harrison Barnes is one of the nation’s top scorers, averaging 17.6 points per game on 49% shooting, many of those open looks courtesy of the nation’s top distributor in Kendall Marshall. What separates this year’s Heels from last year’s 33% three-point shooting team is the health of Reggie Bullock and addition of freshman P.J. Hairston as pinpoint outside gunners.
4. Ohio State (15-2, 3-1): There’s no shame in the Buckeyes two losses at Kansas (without star center Jared Sullinger) and at Indiana by four points. In Sullinger, point guard Aaron Craft and wing William Buford, the Buckeyes boast the best player at each respective position in their conference. Ohio State ranks first in defensive efficiency largely due to the perimeter wizardry of Craft, rank sixth in two-point field goal percentage at a robust 55 percent and are the most proficient defensive rebounding team in the country. One major flaw could be a lack of outside shooting; with no high-volume Buckeye shooting higher than 37 percent from deep, opposing Big Ten defenses may pack the post in an attempt to limit Sullinger and force Ohio State to beat them from beyond the arc.
5. Indiana (14-1, 2-1): Tom Crean’s rebuilding project is one year ahead of schedule. The most dramatic change has been on the defensive end where the Hoosiers have gone from tenth to fifth in the conference in defensive efficiency led by tremendous defenders Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey. Couple that with a 46% team mark from three, Cody Zeller’s efficient post scoring (66% from inside the arc) and Christian Watford’s emergence as an all-Big Ten wing, and it’s no surprise Indiana has pulled off dramatic wins over Kentucky, Ohio State and Michigan at a rejuvenated Assembly Hall. The questions that lie ahead: can Indiana win on the road in conference play, and when those threes inevitably rim out, will they be smart enough to consistently feed Zeller in the post?
6. Baylor (15-0, 2-0): Last season, Baylor was the definition of an “airport team.” With long and athletic forwards lining their roster, they looked great getting off the plane. Unfortunately, turnovers, no outside shooting and an inability to score against a zone plagued their season. The difference in 2011-12 has been the addition of junior college All-American point guard Pierre Jackson, who is their go-to guy in crunch time, and Boston College transfer Brady Heslip (48% from three). They’ve also kept that outstanding length in the post; the Bears rank in the top ten in blocks and two-point field goal defense. Baylor already has six wins over the RPI top-50 with a challenging trip to Kansas State looming on Wednesday.
7. Duke (13-2, 1-0): The Blue Devils will earn a number three seed at an absolute minimum due to a weak conference, but this is the worst defensive team that Coach K has had in a number of years, notably on the perimeter where their guards are constantly exploited off dribble penetration. Their saving grace is that Duke might be the best three-point shooting team among contenders with Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, Austin Rivers and Ryan Kelly all nailing over 40% of their long-range attempts. The point guard situation is also fluid. Tyler Thornton is a liability offensively and Curry is a natural off-guard so look for freshman Quinn Cook to receive increased minutes.
8. Missouri (14-1, 1-1): Missouri will face two teams all season who can exploit their staggering lack of size- Baylor and Kansas State. It’s no surprise the latter shot 49% and out-rebounded the Tigers by 14 in a convincing win last Saturday in Manhattan, Kan. Frank Haith is down to seven scholarship players and only two true forwards, so avoiding injury is absolutely paramount. Aside from Saturday’s loss, Missouri has been an offensive juggernaut behind emerging point guard Phil Pressey, the incredible efficiency of Marcus Denmon and center Ricardo Ratliffe leading the nation in two-point shooting (77%). If they don’t face a team with an abundance of size and post scoring along the way, the Tigers are a legitimate threat to reach New Orleans.
Draymond Green's Spartans haven't lost since November 15
9. Michigan State (14-2, 3-0): Don’t look now, but after falling to Carolina and Duke in their first two contests, Michigan State has reeled off 14 consecutive victories, including true road wins at Gonzaga and Wisconsin where visiting teams die a painful death. Aside from last year’s total debacle, one constant from Tom Izzo’s teams is always relentless rebounding; this season, State ranks in the top-20 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. They’re also steady defensively and sophomore Keith Appling has done an admirable job moving over to the point and finding that proper balance between scoring and distributing. Draymond Green is a Mateen Cleaves/Travis Walton-type leader for Izzo.
10. Georgetown (13-2, 3-1): The Hoyas didn’t receive any votes in the preseason rankings, yet from the moment they battled Kansas for 40 minutes in Maui, it was plainly evident this was a capable squad. The sudden improvements of senior center Henry Sims, who went from averaging sporadic minutes off the bench to the anchor of John Thompson’s Princeton offense in the high post, and sophomore point guard Markel Starks have been central to their unanticipated success. With Connecticut’s turnover/road/leadership issues, Pittsburgh’s collapse and Louisville’s scoring troubles, Georgetown may be the second best team in the Big East.
11. Kansas (12-3, 2-0): Like their chief Big 12 rival Missouri, the Jayhawks are extremely thin. Due to freshmen ineligibility and early entries, Bill Self is working with a seven-man rotation where only three-point specialist Connor Teahan and Loyola Marymount transfer Kevin Young come off the pine. This program’s sustainability through personnel losses is incredible because they stick to their principles of solid defense, ball reversal and well-executed half-court sets. Thomas Robinson is the best overall big man in the country. He can do everything: face-up, post up, rebound, defend and has an NBA-ready body and motor.
12. UNLV (16-2, 0-0): New coach Dave Rice promised to introduce the “running” back to Rebel basketball. Rice has succeeded with flying colors, boosting UNLV’s adjusted tempo from 110th to 22nd in Division-1. Rice has a really balanced group led by double-double machine Mike Moser and shooter Chace Stanback. Their upset win over North Carolina was a 40-minute glimpse into what the Rebels are capable of putting together. They’re the best team in the West and a legit Elite Eight threat.
13. Michigan (13-3, 3-1): It’s been a seamless transition at the point from Darius Morris to freshman Trey Burke. The former high school teammate of Jared Sullinger has a near 2-to-1 assist to turnover ratio, plays 34 minutes per game and shoots 37% from three, although he finally looked like a freshman during the Wolverines’ recent road loss to Indiana. Michigan tends to settle for three-pointers in John Beilein’s system and rarely gets to the free throw line, but Tim Hardaway is a future pro and there’s a nice mix of leadership, versatility inside and outside scoring on this roster.
14. Louisville (13-3, 1-2): The Cardinals early top-five ranking was smoke and mirrors. They barely survived a handful of close games at home and only played one true road game before traveling to Kentucky on New Year’s Eve. Louisville is one of the worst scoring teams in the Big East, evident by their 65 points against bottom-feeder Notre Dame in two overtimes. The Cardinals also shoot just 32% from three. They’ll need to win by perfecting Pitino’s matchup zone in the halfcourt and generating steals with their hectic full-court press, an effort led by pickpocket extraordinaire Russ Smith.
15. Gonzaga (13-2, 3-0): After two early setbacks against Illinois and Michigan State, the Zags are starting to come together just in time for a rivalry meeting with St. Mary’s on Thursday. After regressing last year, junior Elias Harris is back to shooting (49% from three) and rebounding (7.7 RPG) at an elite level. An X-factor for Gonzaga is talented big man and matchup nightmare Sam Dower. After a slow start, Dower has scored 15+ points in four of his last five games. Some consistency would boost an already deep Gonzaga team.
The Rest of the Top 25
16. Florida- Their offense has to run through Patric Young.
17. Kansas State- Less talent than last season, but pieces actually fit together.
18. Seton Hall- Point guard Jordan Theodore has 30 assists and nine turnovers in Big East play.
19. Connecticut- Tournament co-hero Alex Oriakhi has been a no-show all season.
20. Creighton- Get to know Doug McDermott, the best non-power six conference player in the nation.
21. Virginia- Only one team has scored more than 60 points in a game against Tony Bennett’s defense.
22. Marquette- Next ten games are all extremely winnable.
23. West Virginia– Kevin Jones (19.8 PPG, 11.9 RPG, 55% FG) deserves All-America consideration.
24. Alabama– Fantastic defensive team that ranks near the bottom in the nation in three-point shooting.
25. St. Mary’s– Should be 4-0 in conference play heading into Gonzaga showdown this week.
Just curious as to how you leave Murray State out of your top 25. I’m hoping you just forget although that would still be a serious injustice.
What about some love for the Murray State Racers? 16-0, beat Memphis, Southern Miss and thrashed Dayton who spanked Bama the same week.
Seton Hall 18???
I don’t think Murray State is one of the best 25 teams, no. The Memphis and Dayton wins don’t do it for me and the OVC is abysmal this year. Neutral court game I believe any of those 25 teams would beat the Racers, especially with Aska sidelined.
As for Seton Hall, if they had Pitt or UConn or Louisville on their jersey’s it wouldn’t even be a question. Beat West Virginia and UConn convincingly at home. Won at Dayton.
Beat VCU and St. Joe’s back in Charleston. KenPom has them #33 and Sagarin #25. Legit team.
Ok so when Aska is back are they a top 25 team. That logic makes no sense whatsoever. Can’t wait for them to prove you wrong.
And Aska is sidelined for the rest of the year? No. So what’s your point? I think your point is bias.
Why would I be biased against Murray State? Sorry, but they haven’t played one team I would consider in the top 40 in the country. I look beyond W-L record to see who teams actually beat.
Ok so lets use your Seton Hall logic to look at the Racers. Murray State Sagarin-15 Kenpom 32. That looks like an even more legit team to me. If you are going to use facts about a team as to why they should be in your top 25 how can you leave out a team that has better numbers in the same computer systems. I would say USM is top 40 in the nation. Your logic isn’t very good.
You just skimmed over the fact Seton Hall just convincingly beat UConn and West Virginia in the last 10 days.
I was just using the same facts you did sir.
Nobody is saying Murray State is a bad team. Do any of you honestly think Murray State would be undefeated against a legitimate schedule? I sure don’t. Their league is awful (through no fault of their own) and there’s no way Dayton or Southern Miss is a top 40 team. Memphis might be and that’s a good win (all road wins are), but keep in mind the Tigers have lost five games already and need a big C-USA record just to make the tournament.
Murray State got more than enough respect in the national polls and even here at RTC. Not everyone agrees, that is all. You guys are making much too big of a deal out of this.
Yeah, Brian’s right. Murray received enough consideration here at RTC among voters to come in at #20, which is probably about as far as anyone can reasonably expect given their schedule. But reasonable minds, all of whom know an awful lot about basketball, will still differ. That’s why one of our pollsters had the Racers as high as #11 and a couple of others had them just missing the cut. Nobody is right or wrong, necessarily, b/c the beauty of polls in college basketball is that they’re for entertainment purposes only.
The problem is you have to at lease have them at 15. Not even one AP member doesnt have them at least 25.
Sorry I meant 25.